With B-Roy Ailing, did we give up on Bayless too early?
by lefty6283 on Jun 6, 2011 2:06 PM PDT
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PrintAs Blazers fans everywhere know by now, the health of Brandon Roy's knees has an issue since getting injured about a week before the Blazers entered the 2010 NBA Playoffs against the Phoenix Suns. Since the injury, Brandon has shown flashes of his former self, including his ridiculous 18 point fourth quarter to spark the Blazers comeback from 23 down in the second half to knot the series at two wins apiece.
That being said, one of the main arguments against Jerryd Bayless in his time with us is that he would be unable to pair alongside B-Roy, citing that he is largely at his best when creating off of the dribble and is an inconsistent jump shooter. With Roy potentially never regaining his All-Star level game, did Portland brass give up on Jerryd Bayless (currently just 22 years old) too soon?
Some of Bayless' biggest strengths (attacking off the dribble and getting to the free throw line), were things our backcourt seemed to lack once Brandon went down again this season, especially against the Mavericks this postseason (21.5 FT attempts/game). He will never be an above average defender, due in part to his lack of elite wingspan (6'3.5 wingspan at 6'3). For comparison, John Wall has a 6'9.25 reach at 6'4. Also, due to his somewhat lengthy shot release, he is somewhat prone to having his shot blocked, despite a very high release.
I followed Bayless after he left the Blazers, and struggled some with New Orleans as well. It wasn't until he got to Toronto, and into a more freely flowing offense under then-head coach Jay Triano, that you were really able to see what he could do.
60 games: 22.4 minutes, 10.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 turnovers, 43.0% FG, 34.9% 3PT, 81.0% FT
Pretty average for a combo guard off the bench. Once Toronto essentially shut down Jose Calderon for the season at the end of March and played Jerryd, his averages jumped significantly.
8 games: 37.7 minutes, 22.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.8 turnovers, 48.4% FG, 41.2% 3PT, 82.8% FT (on 7.3 attempts/game)
By looking at the numbers, its definitely a somewhat small sample size, and there are probably a fair amount of PGs that, if given free reign, could probably put up pretty solid numbers with those kinds of minutes. What impressed me the most is that Bayless put up 5.6 assists despite not having Andrea Bargnani playing in those games either.
While trading Jerryd was disappointing, the pick we received from New Orleans helped us net Gerald Wallace at the trade deadline, and few Blazers fans would say that Bayless is a better player than "Crash". I guess what it all boils down to is, "As currently assembled, would Jerryd Bayless have been an important piece to help us advance in the playoffs"? I feel as though his talents, under Nate McMillan, would probably never be maximized due to style clashes in the way Jerryd plays versus the way Nate coaches...however, he definitely couldn't have hurt either!
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No.
I still love Rex, one of my favorite Blazers to watch when he was here. But he’s not what we needed.
I have Comcast. I know that makes you hate me. I'm sorry. If it's any consolation, my neighborhood may get Comcast but we've got someone who plays the tuba. A lot.
I'm a bit of a....
….mistrusting conspiracy theorist. But I kind of think that perhaps The Blazers at least suspected problems on the Brandon Roy front, well before they become undeniable and evident.
That would explain the huge toxic offer for Wesley Matthews, it would explain the almost stoic refusal to entertain the idea of trading or releasing Rudy Fernandez.
Before trading Bayless…we had Brandon, Fernandez, and Matthews all at the depth chart at least in some part ahead of Bayless.
Fernandez had more or less scuttled his trade value with his Media Day comments about not wanting to be in The N.B.A., and wanting to return to Europe.
We ain’t trading the just signed to a huge contract Matthews, we ain’t trading Brandon. So who does that leave? Bayless.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
don't forget elliot williams
"I told somebody to stop crying," Pendergraph said after the game. "Actually, I told them all to stop crying."
on the depth chart.
roy matthews fernandez williams
prolly don’t need a fifth sg
"I told somebody to stop crying," Pendergraph said after the game. "Actually, I told them all to stop crying."
Its not a conspiracy theory really
just the simple process of elimination.
Draft Reggie Jackson/Justin Harper/Kenneth Faried
Sign Reggie Williams/Kenyon Martin
Trade for Anthony Randolph
he had no court vision
very important in a PG
by extraneous solutions on Jun 6, 2011 2:33 PM PDT reply actions
If we didn't get Gerald Wallace in return
it might be a different story. I’d welcome Bayless back though as we lack a guy who can get to the foul line at will(Wesley Matthews the last game of the Dallas series showed he has the capability to do so but doesn’t do it frequently enough).
Draft Reggie Jackson/Justin Harper/Kenneth Faried
Sign Reggie Williams/Kenyon Martin
Trade for Anthony Randolph
I liked Bayless game Sometimes
However, I think there is no chance you start him over Wesley, which probably would have been a problem. Jerryd’s ego was able to accept (somewhat) backing up Roy as an all star but I believe backing up an undrafted free agent would have sent him into a major attitude tailspin.
To be perfectly honest I think Jarrett Jack may have been better on this team as a back up point/ combo guard.
The draft pick being used for GW makes the answer to this poll easy for me in any case.
also,
I feel as though his talents, under Nate McMillan, would probably never be maximized due to style clashes in the way Jerryd plays versus the way Nate coaches…however, he definitely couldn’t have hurt either!
-5.7 pts per 100 possessions on/off court in Toronto
-1.8 pts per 100 on/off court in NOH
-5.2 pts per 100 on/off court in 09-10
-8.3 pts per 100 on/off court in 08-09
So yeah, I’d disagree pretty strongly about that. He could and did hurt every team he’s played for so far.
by howlingfantods on Jun 6, 2011 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Raw +/- over the course of 3500 career minutes tells us very little to nothing. He’s basically played a little over a season of minutes, and even the most ardent +/- booster would concede that individual unadjusted +/- for a single season gives you very, very little. He does have a somewhat negative 2 year APM, which tells you a bit, but young players do get better at defense (think Durant?).
i keep dancing on my own.
i'm refuting a very specific statement:
“he definitely couldn’t have hurt.” In fact, he could, and did. In his short career, he has hurt every single one of his teams every time he was on the court, and +/- is pretty much prima facie evidence.
Doesn’t mean he can’t become a good player, just means that statement is wrong. I bothered pointing it out since I think that point escapes folks a lot—bad players do in fact hurt teams with their presence.
by howlingfantods on Jun 7, 2011 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
individual unadjusted +/- for a single season
might not be that useful, but that’s 3 seasons and 3 different teams. I think THAT tells you something. In Bayless’ case, it tells me something specific; that he either doesn’t have the discipline and coachability to play effectively within a system, or he doesn’t have the talent to do what his teams ask of him, which is primarily to play point guard.
to both of you
any unadjusted +/- is going to fluctuate wildly on the basis of randomness and quality teammates.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/a_treatise_on_plus_minus/
In my opinion, given the level of randomness shown in KenPom’s experiment and the fact that NBA rotations are NOT random, even a 3500 minute sample is enough to validate conclusions based on raw +/-. Once we get to full-season or two-year +/- with an adjustment for teammate and opponent quality, then we may be able to draw some conclusions about the quality of the player, though there are still some funky results.
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/03/plusminus-in-the-n-b-a-a-plus-or-minus/
I think Bayless’s raw +/- stats are borderline meaningless, and definitively do not show that he “hurts his team” or “lacks talent.” His two year -2.5 APM may go some way toward demonstrating that. However, at only 3,500 career minutes, we’re still on a sample size that’s only a bit over a full season of play for many NBA players.
i keep dancing on my own.
Alright, let's throw adjusted +/- out the window, and just look at another metric you've provided:
3,500 career minutes. On three different teams, three different coaches, three different sets of teammates. He couldn’t get consistent minutes. Most coaches tend to play players that will produce wins for them, or at least follow their coaching strategy.
Then comes the argument of who’s in front of him on those teams, which begs the question of what position does he play? And remember, Bayless wasn’t even getting second string rotation player minutes on these teams.
What eyeball or statistical measurement are you using that is telling you something different? He’s just not that good.
You will find me leading the charge against arguments about individual player ability
based off of +/-, and you’ll see me spouting off about multicollinearity problems, sample size problems, bad backup problems, and every other major line of criticism about +/-. I’ll pretty much always completely disregard anything that begins “Wayne Winston says…”
I’ll occasionally employ +/- in a really limited way for assessing strength or weaknesses in 5 man lineups for discussions relating to coaching and rotations, but not even really much for those purposes. Definitely not for assessing individual ability.
But the original poster says “he couldn’t hurt” and that’s not true, and nothing illustrates the principle that a bad player has hurt his team better than +/-.
by howlingfantods on Jun 8, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Still with this?
He never reached his potential here or anywhere else he played. Why harp on this. I don’t want to say he’s not very good because he could still turn it around, but I don’t miss him at all. He would not add to this team in any significant way. I wish him the best of luck and hope we never want him back.
"This is the most popular sport in America blaming its feet for insolence and cutting them off with a chainsaw to show them who's the boss in this arrangement. When it bleeds out, it will admit no regrets because those who paint themselves into corners forget that a path out ever existed."-Spencer Hall, The NFL Lockout and Taking Sides in The League's Labor Dispute
The use of the Bayless pick to get Wallace
isn’t a relevant point given we could have given up our own 1st round and done the same thing given Bayless was swapped for the 19th and we have the 21st. My dislike of this trade was that it was little more than a cap move, and left us without anyone to back up Miller. Further, Bayless was a 12 pick which was traded for the 19, which didn’t give us the equivalent value back. Not much of a trade.
Yeah I was not in favour of the trade and I feel we are worse off without him.
He would have helped against Dallas I am certain of that. With minutes and an attacking system with the confidence of his coach, Bayless is a good player. All this " he didn’t fit the system" stuff that is being said is just plain stupid IMO. He played great when Roy was out last season but come Playoff time and he wasn’t trusted anymore. Then we traded him for a late round draft pick which was so the wrong move and one I have never forgiven Cho for. IMO he should have been fired then and there but he came up with Gerald Wallace and everything was forgiven.
When he got minutes late in the season in Toronto he shot 48% from the field and 41% from 3. That shows that he can play starters minutes and be a scorer in the NBA. He’s not a PG like Miller but that does not mean that he isn’t a good player or not right for us.
hahaha, Portland DRAFTED Bayless too early.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
don't worry
rex will never put up numbers like that on a good team. He just doesn’t have the feel for the game it takes to really run a team. put his head down and go to the hole. yes. but, along the way you suffer through a lot of 3-14 nights.
Bayless was good at driving and getting blocked
#7
by collectiveshane on Jun 7, 2011 11:46 AM PDT reply actions
as well as the foot-on-the-line 2pter
#7
by collectiveshane on Jun 7, 2011 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
he was the best "shoot a long 2 when you could easily shoot a 3" shot taker ever
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Jarrett Jack looks like Bayless
So I will forgive this mistake….also Outlaw anybody?
Team Aldridge
by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 10, 2011 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Considering how under-used Bayless has been just about everywhere he’s been traded, I’d say no. The Blazers did well in cutting him loose.
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
don't miss him.
he just wasn’t that good and he didn’t fit in well because he thought he was a star.
i’m happy that he’ll figure it out that he’s not somewhere else.
it would be easy to get another jerryd bayless like player if it was worth doing. for instance, think of all the point guards that people are excited about in the 2011 draft. just wait for most of them to not pan out in a couple of years, and pick one up for a song!
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