The Portland Trail Blazers Big Roster Issue
by Dave on Jun 28, 2011 11:53 PM PDT
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PrintA couple days ago we ran a discussion piece asking how good people thought the Trail Blazers would be assuming the lineup remained basically unchanged between now and the start of next season. The conversation in that piece was interesting. Today I want to share my glaring concern with the roster and look at the Blazers' chances of addressing it. To start with, let's review the presumed lineup:
- Raymond Felton PG
- Wesley Matthews SG
- Gerald Wallace SF
- LaMarcus Aldridge PF
- Marcus Camby C
Bench
- Brandon Roy SG
- Nicolas Batum F
- Greg Oden C (probably after January)
- Some combination of Chris Johnson, Luke Babbitt, Elliot Williams, Nolan Smith, and whatever other guys currently on the roster you'd like to speculate about.
Here's the deal. No matter what you think of the individual talents of the players involved, listing the lineup I see exactly six guys that can be depended on for semi-consistent playing time. Greg Oden's track record is obvious. Brandon Roy is still on limited minutes and has been inconsistent even so. Nobody from the bottom rungs of the rotation has shown any signs of climbing into a regular rotation spot. That leaves Felton, Matthews, Wallace, Aldridge, Camby, and Batum for the team to depend on. Even if you max out your assessment of their skills, that's a thin group.
You can go even further. Marcus Camby's effectiveness slipped in the latter part of last season following injuries. To say he's injury-prone is going too far but he's no stranger to down time. Gerald Wallace is also known as an injury risk, playing over 72 games in a year just once in his career. Now you're down to Felton, Matthews, Batum, and Aldridge as completely bankable, 82-game threats. Even if you want to throw Wallace back in you're still talking about major minutes for, and major strain on, 4-5 players. Some folks argued strenuously that LaMarcus Aldridge was overplayed last season. That problem could triple or quadruple this year. A lockout-shortened season could actually prove a godsend for this team.
People seem to be speculating that the Blazers can work their way out of this corner in a couple ways. Some argue that the team is going to get better organically through the development of all its players. I believe that some players will grow, but this argument is advanced far more than it actually happens. That kind of growth isn't automatic, otherwise every team in the league would get gradually better year by year until everybody got great. I remember particularly a year or two ago I was wondering how much more the Blazers could achieve and somebody eloquently spelled out in the comment section how impossible it would be for the team to do worse in the coming year because so many players would develop. Yet the team has won fewer games than the year before for two years straight now, likely with more promise available than currently exists. The truth is some players develop, some stay the same, some regress, and some just never make it at all. As I said last week, all six of the Blazers six first round point guard picks in the last seven years proved less than serviceable, and that's not even counting the second-rounders from Taurean Green to Armon Johnson. Nicolas Batum may get better and he may not. How much better can Aldridge get? Where is the improvement going to come from and how much will there be? It's possible a whole bunch of people may get better at once, but it's certainly not guaranteed. In any case, they're going to need a ton of organic growth to leapfrog into the conference elite.
The other common argument is that the Blazers will pick up a big man using the Mid-Level Exception, presumed to carry over into the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. I wonder who would fit the bill? Portland needs serious help at the center and power forward positions. I have no doubt that they can pick up Earl Barrons all the day long but what true difference makers will be available at 6'10" or above? Those are still among the rarest commodities in the league. And even should that guy shake free, what would entice him to join the Blazers as opposed to any of the other 29 teams that have the MLE handy? Miami is hungry for a big, as are Boston and the Lakers. How many impact players are there to go around?
The Blazers aren't in an impossible situation but they're in a tight spot. This is a large issue with no easy out. Once again we're staring down the barrel of depending upon Brandon Roy and/or Greg Oden to ride in and save the day. Nobody's comfortable with that, but it remains the most viable option unless the Blazers have an amazing rabbit left to pull out of the hat.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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just sayin
I believe we wont play this season. And Roy and Oden will benefit from that. But even still the roster is pretty thin. Will Camby be Back? This will be interesting
Roy will never benefit from an off-season...
no ligaments equals no ligaments. It will save him from the normal wear and tear but there ain’t no cure for no ligament. I do think we’ll have a season this year.
True, but...
he would benefit from a shortened season, a la 1999. Same thing for Oden. Truth be known, if this season is cut to 50 games, the Blazers could be the team to benefit the most.
by oregon_fan on Jun 29, 2011 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Another year of stem cell research
might grow Brandon new knees….
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
Maybe, maybe not...
In the 99 season, weren’t there more back to backs and more four game in five night situations?
It seems to me like rest between games and managing minutes is going to be very important for both Roy and Oden. Injuries are more likely to occur when players are fatigued. Hence the need to not play LMA 42+ mpg this season.
I understand the logic behind it. If these guys can only play 40-50 games and stay healthy, then a shortened season would seem to fit them well. But the way the schedule works for a shortened season may be even harder on their bodies than a regular 82 game season.
by Rodney Gustafson on Jun 29, 2011 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
In 1999, there were even back-to-back-to-back games and five games in six nights at times.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/1999_games.html
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
Meniscus
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 5:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Hehe. No ligaments would be a pickle
/s
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jun 29, 2011 6:30 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree and would add that we also cannot depend on Roy...
for financial reasons. If we keep him then we will likely lose Batum, Felton or someone else we desperately need now because Roy is sucking up so much salary. If the amnesty agreement is there, please cut him and maybe try to resign him at a reduced rate. I don’t want to lose other key pieces over a sporadic bench player.
by GoodNoCall on Jun 29, 2011 6:57 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
As I understand it...
The amnesty would likely forbid the Blazers from signing Roy again through the length of his contract… so for the next 5 seasons or so?
by FlyingOutlaw on Jun 29, 2011 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions
He has ligaments it is his Mencius that is shot, there is a big difference in the two
But no Mencius is no Mencius, If the Prp works that may change—but doubtful. The difference is you can play with no Mencius for a while, you can’t do much of anything with out ligaments.
hg
You could repeat that a hundres times
and they could permanently put that on the sidebar but there will still be someone next week talking about ligaments.
Only from the mind of Mencius . . .
If you are wondering where the junk drawer went, look in at http://pinwheelempire.com
by 22baylor on Jul 6, 2011 8:06 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Medical wonky correction time.
Meniscii are not ligaments. They are a form of soft cartilidge that acts as an additional buffer between the two parts of hard cartilige that cap the bones that meet at the knee. So B-Roy has neither a “ligament problem” nor a “bone on bone problem” as his injuries are frequently mischaracterized.
That being said, having no meniscii in either knee is a serious impairment… so I’m not arguing the outcome. Just nitpicking. :-)
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
by conspirator5 on Jun 29, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
What you say is the truth not nitpicking.
without Menisci the hard Cartilage would start wearing unevenly and that is where the inflammation and pain comes from and the end is not good. but PRP can help with inflammation and help to keep it smooth even if it hasn’t been proved to grow new Menisci. so there is still a lot of short term hope for BRoy. There is a shot treatment that helps a lot which I am sure BRoy is already getting. I don’t know what it is called, but it is a lot like the old STP treatment for Oil. and the gel they use for breast enlargement. that also give short term help. So don’t count BRoy out just yet. He may not earn all the monies that is awarded him but few players do year after year. He does have some incentive plans in his contract that may reduce the payments to BRoy but not the salary cap itself.
hg
Correction grasshopper
…the meniscus is cartilage. Think of them as half moon shaped pillows between your shin bone and thigh bone (tibia & femur respectively) Ligaments are what you may know as ACL, MCL, LCL & PCL.
This is the best definition I could find of Meniscus and articular cartilage.
The knee joint has two types of cartilage inside the joint. One of the types of cartilage is called articular cartilage. The articular cartilage forms the smooth layer of the joint that covers the bone ends. A layer of articular cartilage covers the end of the thigh bone, the top of the shin bone, and the back of the kneecap.
The meniscus is a different type of cartilage that forms a shock-absorber between the bones. The meniscus is not attached to the bone like the articular cartilage, but rather sits between the bone ends to cushion the joint.
Most often, a “tear” refers to an injury to the meniscus cartilage, not the articular cartilage. Therefore, it is a meniscus tear that occurs when someone is referring to a cartilage tear of the knee.
hg
Trading Camby
may be one of the Blazers’ better options. The lockout may mess with that. Even without that, though, it’s pretty hard to trade your old big for someone else’s young big. The Blazers would almost have to identify a guy playing for an established team they thought would break out and roll the dice. Either that or they could try and acquire somebody in a salary dump. But it’s hard to imagine anybody salary dumping a good big man.
—Dave
"But it’s hard to imagine anybody salary dumping a good big man."
That’s why I hope New Orleans puts Emeka Okafor on the trade market.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
the cost would be steep
Camby, Oden, Batum for Okafor Ariza and filler
Red means run, son, numbers add up to nothin
Not only is that an easy no for the Portland Trail Blazers, but Greg Oden would never agree ...
to a sign-and-trade deal with the New Orleans Hornets. Oden to New Orleans doesn’t make any sense for either party.
Also, the last time Okafor got traded was in a straight-up swap for Tyson Chandler back in 2009.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4359609
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
I'm making a big assumption with that trade
but it makes a certain amount of sense. I’m assuming Oden takes the 1 year $9 million QA from PDX. It makes sense for NO because they get 3 contracts totaling about $20 million that all expire before the 2012-13 NBA. If Oden produces they have the ability to sign him, Batum and Paul to long term deals before the 2012-13 season.
A ready made championship contender might be more attractive to a new owner. If Oden doesn’t work out NO would have the cap space to resign Paul and another big name FA like Dwight Howard and worse case scenario Oden doesn’t work out and Paul bolts, NO is way under the cap and a crap team but one without a lot of expenses and few years of lottery picks. For PDX the deal gives them a defensive minded 5 who is good for 10 and 10 a night and the picture of health when compared to the current centers on the roster. If the filler could be NO resigning Aaron Gray to a 3 year $7-8 million deal and sending him to PDX then the Blazers would have some depth and health at the center position.
Red means run, son, numbers add up to nothin
The Hornets are a team who would benefit from cutting long term salary
as they are looking for a new owner. David West just decided to hit the free agent market and Chris Paul will almost certainly leave in 2012 if West signs somewhere else this off season. There’s no reason for them to hang onto Okafor if Paul and West are gone; they would need to rebuild.
#52
Ergo, Marcus Camby and filler (e.g., Elliot Williams) for Emeka Okafor is good times.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
If a deal like that were available
You’d pretty much have to jump on it. I’m not an Okafor fan especially, and I love Marcus, but that would be as much of a no-brainer as the Wallace deal, maybe moreso.
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
by conspirator5 on Jun 29, 2011 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
@Dave;
Do you think Freeland is just waiting for the lock-out to be over before committing to coming to Portland? That would be the smart move for both sides; Freeland gets to keep playing and keep being paid; we will know more about Greg and BRoy; That way we could keep Camby as one of our reserves and mentor. Without the stress of having to play big minutes to survive. Camby and the Blazers might benefit from there also.
hg
Didn't Marcus say
He would retire before accepting a trade?
Some people think we could have gotten a center in the draft
Would that have been a viable option? If so, who?
Doubt it
Might have gotten a power forward who could play some minutes. But that at least you might be able to get cheap on the open market. The problem is that neither a draftee nor an emergency power forward will likely make enough difference. You’ll find yourself depending more and more on Aldridge either way. Let’s hope LMA enters the season in the best shape of his life.
—Dave
Some say not drafting Faried
was part of the Felton deal, as Denver took him right after we didnt.
this was my first gut instinct
but thinking logically, it’s a myth. if anything, you pick Faried and/or force Denver to swap picks with you or take a little less on the deal overall.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Why is this a myth?
It actually makes sense to do what they just did. Why would Denver want Portland to draft Faried and trade him immediately after and vice versa with Smith? That would just indicate to their respective clubs that they werent the first option to the team. This way, Portland gets to claim Nolan Smith was always their ‘guy’, and why not do it this way since Portland was getting Smith anyway. Same with Denver, they get to claim all along Faried was their ‘guy’ instead of someone else’s pick who they swapped for in a trade.
I have no idea though, but it makes sense to do it this way as opposed to swapping picks if for no other reason than for player relationship and PR purposes.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
its all about leverage
if you know Denver wants Faried, then you take him to extract better terms on the Felton trade (assuming you want Faried too, which is the assumption being made). If Portland really wanted Faried, they should have taken him, and then told Denver “Fine, you can have Faried and Miller for Felton, but we’ll keep the 26th pick now”. Most likely Smith would have been on the board at 26th for us.
And this is actually a win for Denver too – because they are getting the 20th and 21st picks instead of the 21st and 26th.
It doesnt’ add up. Portland wanted Smith more than they wanted Faried.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
if you know Denver wants Faried, then you take him to extract better terms on the Felton trade
That makes no sense if the two teams came to an agreement BEFOREHAND to make the deal as constructed. And the deal beforehand was not draft Faried, give them the #26 pick and Miller for Felton. If the Blazers reneged on this pre-constructed deal, and drafted Faried anyway to extract leverage, who would ever deal with Portland again?
Bottom line is I think this was the arrangement and they let Faried slide. I’m certainly not going to take Buchanan’s word for it. The FO lies all the time when it suits them.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
why would Portland ever have agreed to that?
the minute Denver tells you “don’t take player X”, then you use that information to get more from them. “Fine, then you have to swap picks with us, and sweeten it with your 2nd rounder”, or “ok, then we’ll just trade you the 20th pick instead of the 26th”, or the 20th and 26th and you give us the 21st." this deal, like most draft day deals, wasn’t locked in way before hand – it probably wasn’t even agreed to until Portland was on the clock, so they hardly would have been breaking anything pre-arranged. And if Portland truly did want Faried, then it’s still worth the risk of the deal falling apart – you still have Faried, Miller, and whoever you pick at 26 (cause you still do the Rudy deal), so you can always continue working the deal, or another one, later. You never just give away leverage like that.
if the front office just said “ok” to not drafting Faried while they indeed wanted Faried, then they are truly inept idiots. I don’t think they are.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Whaaa?
You’re making this too complicated. Very simply, the two teams could have made an agreement before they picked to trade Miller. pick #26 and forgo Faried for Felton. It’s really that simple. Like I said, I suppose Portland could have reneged and took Faried, but why would they? Who would ever do business with the Blazers again? You dont think all 30 GM’s wouldnt know what happened? There’s no risk ANY team pulls a bush league maneuver like that. This is not the Slovakian league.
It may or may not have happened. We’ll never know.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
Lastly I'd like to point out
That this wouldn’t be the first time teams let players slide ON PURPOSE in the draft as part of pre-arranged deals. I don’t have any references off hand, but I know it’s happened. Why would this be any different?
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
You're assuming the deal wasn't negotiated in advance
And Portland could have chose whoever they wanted. This may be true, but it’s just as true that Portland could have made a verbal agreement to let Faried slide to Denver. In theory, Portland could have drafted Faried anyway I suppose, but that would be the ultimate bush league maneuver and would greatly damage their reputation by reneging of a deal.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
you don't do verbal agreements like that
if Denver insists on getting Faried in the deal, then you make them swap picks with you and pay for it in some way.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Sure you do
These are professional teams. They dont just reneg on one another like that.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
Yeah, looks fishy to me
Buchanan can deny all day long that Smith was their ‘guy’, but my gut says he’s saving face. Obviously he would never tell the media that Portland would choose Faried over Smith given the opportunity, and I suspect both teams stayed hush about their arrangement.
I’m not saying Portland doesn’t like Smith because clearly they do, but I suspect they let Faried slide to Denver and chose the next player on their board: Nolan Smith.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
A lockout-shortened season could actually prove a godsend for this team.
In 1999-2000, the scheduling gods for the lockout-shortened season favored the deep teams (like the 99-00 Blazers), so a replay would not benefit this roster as-is in my humble opinion.
"Ted Thompson's running Brett Favre out of Green Bay was the biggest mistake by a GM in the history of the league."
-Skip Bayless, November 2008
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 29, 2011 12:04 AM PDT reply actions
exactly
people see 50 games and think “that would be great”. What they fail to remember from ’99 was that those 50 games were compressed into a killer schedule. Forget any 3-day breaks. Heck, forget 2-day breaks. 4 games in 5 nights was common. I am pretty sure there were even cases of 3 straight days of games, which is verbotten in the normal NBA schedule. You think back to backs are bad now…
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Yeah...there were Back-to-back-to-backs
Cool thing to would be for Mike Rice to tell us our record on the 3rd half of Back-to-backs
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd say depth is an issue, but it's not quite as bleak overall though it is bleak in the front court as currently constructed
I think Roy will see regular minutes and potentially start again. Wesley might be in a Ginobili/Terry role playing more minutes than Roy but technically coming off the bench. Even if Roy is limited and will miss games again, I’d count him as a regular rotation player.
One of the backup guards will see regular minutes, most likely that will be Nolan Smith but it could be Armon, Patty or Elliot too depending on how that situation shakes out in training camp. We might even get to see a “duo Dukies” lineup at times with Nolan and Elliot.
SF is settled with Gerald and Nic assuming no catastrophic injury, with Luke as the situational backup there like he was last year, maybe a few more regular minutes for him.
The big issue right now is the front court. You can typically count on Camby to miss 20 games a year due to some minor injuries with his playing style even assuming nothing like the meniscus from last year happens. With Oden not expected back until January, you have to a) knock on wood that nothing of any kind happens to LaMarcus and b) sign 1-2 big men.
I’m not too worried that the MLE won’t buy anything in this market, since there are a TON of unrestricted free agents especially at the power forward position and 2011 is rich in guys who were rotation players on their teams before. I could totally see someone like Humphries/Kardashian, McRoberts, Evans, Hayes, etc. think about Portland as a very viable option better than the team they were on last year. Add someone like Joel, Kwame, Pendergraph, etc. and we would be fairly settled for the upcoming season.
Aha, you said it.
I could totally see someone like Humphries/Kardashian, McRoberts, Evans, Hayes, etc.
SIGN CHUCK HAYES!!!
There, I’ll probably only have to say that two or three more times today.
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
by conspirator5 on Jun 29, 2011 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm way down with Hayes
I’m also down with McBob
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Trade Nic and Oden
for Chris “like a” Bosh.
Most guys block shots with their fingertips. Wallace was blocking them with his armpit.
by ODEN on a stick on Jun 29, 2011 12:33 AM PDT reply actions
Miami would decline that in a yoctosecond.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2011 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I did go high-brow there.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
Why would we even want that trade?
So either LMA goes to the bench or the 5 spot?
Dave, you hit the nail on the head. This is not a deep team.
The depth that was here several years ago has been drastically thinned out by both injuries and trades. When Joel and Greg both played, we had been boasting at having the best center tandem in the league. At point, we were arguing over whether Blake or Miller should start. And we’ve always had enough twos and threes. By the latter half of last season, at times we were reduced to starting a second year small forward at center. I doubt that Brandon will ever be a dependable old Brandon again. Going forward, my main hope is that Greg can return at least to some semblance of an impact center.
-Jack
I would contend that we never really had depth
we had a bunch of guys that really haven’t panned out for other teams. What we thought was depth was management over-valuing their players. Jack, Webster, and Blake are rotation players, Bayless and Cunningham are kind of in a rotation, but nobody is making an impact elsewhere. We never really had depth.
IMHO rotation players = depth
I would love to have any of those players you list on the bench right now.
without Roy
those “deep” teams lacked talent
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Exactly
Seems to me like this team has a greater number of players with talent. There are more players that would start for almost any other team. Roy and Oden are injured, there’s really nothing that can be done about that. But we’ve gone from Blake and Jack to Miller to Felton. We’ve gone from Przybilla and Oden to Camby and Oden. We’ve gone from Webster and Outlaw to Wallace and Batum.
And really… Depth is great in the regular season, but I am of the opinion that it means less in the playoffs. More time between games, more minutes for starters, shortened rotation. Where it helps is when there are injuries and back to backs. No back to backs in the playoffs, and most teams that go deep enter the playoffs healthy. Dallas missing Caron Butler this year is an exception, not the norm.
by Rodney Gustafson on Jun 29, 2011 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
We can't have it both ways
People have been asking for more proven talent on this team for several years now. Wanting a 3 for 1 consolidation trade.
We’re at that point now. There is a clear pecking order (no Blake vs miller debates) and nobody should be unhappy with their role. The young guys just might contribute if they get the chance and we know what we have 1 through 6. I think we’re in a good position moving forward.
Creator of Projectile project management/invoicing/time tracking system.
by jamon51 on Jun 29, 2011 12:44 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Thank you Jamon
It seems that Dave would have been in favor of a complete tear down, stockpile of lottery picks style rebuild for this team once the Oden and Roy injuries took place. That wasn’t going to happen under PA. That left us with a “deep” but not very talented team, and no team ever wins in the NBA without talent at the top of the rotation. So we trade Martell to make a spot for Wes. We elevate our second fiddle to primary option with positive returns. We trade Bayless, Przy, Dante, Marks, and a future pick for Gerald Wallace. We trade Dre, Rudy, and Petteri for Raymond Felton.
Greg Oden is still a big part of our puzzle, but I’m not sure that was avoidable…and I’d rather have it be Greg than Brandon, who I don’t think will ever regain his old form.
I guess the question is which is easier to acquire? Talents like Roy, Oden, Aldridge, and Wallace? Or depth like Dante, Rudy, Przy, Bayless, etc…? Seems pretty obvious to me that the answer is depth.
I think we all recognize the hole in the roster…the imbalance created mainly by the Gerald Wallace trade. But we knew that going into the trade and still made it because it was that valuable for us to secure a talent of Gerald’s caliber. We know have Felton-Matthews-Batum-Wallace-Aldridge all between 22-28 yrs old. Those are 5 really nice players or assets. One young guy steps up, you pick up one big, and you get Greg back on the court. Lo and behold it’s an 8 man playoff rotation and I haven’t even included Camby or Roy.
Every year we see teams in the finals getting contributions from the likes of Ian Mahinmi and Brian Cardinal. Lack of depth can be addressed much more easily than lack of talent. It could be argued we still lack the talent, but a tear down and rebuild is not in the future. I often wonder how the Celtics would have faired had they not drafted Rondo. Do they win it without him? A mid to late first round pick? The Spurs without Tony Parker? Sometimes you get to good and still need a boost. We are good, but we are not forever stuck in the friendship zone of the NBA (middling/mediocre/too good but not good enough). There are ways out. One great draft pick, one Greg Oden…are they reliable? No. But almost all good teams that become great need a little luck to get there (outside of Miami and LA anyway).
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 9 recs
*now not know
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
*and fared not faired
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
+92
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Well said
Much better than I could say on my iPad late last night. ;)
Creator of Projectile project management/invoicing/time tracking system.
In fact I think your comment
is one of the best I’ve read all year. It should have 20 recs.
Creator of Projectile project management/invoicing/time tracking system.
Thank you guys very much
that means a lot to me coming from respected commenters like yourself and 92
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey!
I’m respectable now! How’d that happen? :)
Creator of Projectile project management/invoicing/time tracking system.
haha...just one man's opinion
but you’ve always been alright in my book!
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Look at the players recently acquired
Wallace and Felton both played for coach Bickerstaff. The list of FA PF’s that have played for any of the coaches is small. That is why I think Reggie Evans is the one FA that makes sense. He played for Nate in Seattle. They can make the transition to a new team in a short season as seamless as can be expected. I can’t see Evans getting the full exception, but it might be close.
I will just say
I’m still banking on Oden coming back and giving us some decent minutes and being able to make an impact in the playoffs. I know that is asking a lot but I still have a great feeling about this kid, and we all need to remember that he is still a kid even though he looks 40.
Hot sauce in my bag.
by JmarcL4 on Jun 29, 2011 1:12 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
We hope he didn't lie about his age also.
I am with you on Greg, but I am guilty of not giving up hope “Until the Fat Lady Sings”.Nevertheless, he is doing great and no reason to believe otherwise.
The lockout may actually help on Greg’s part.
hg
Hahahahaha
I think you have to be from another country to pull off the official age lie, and play baseball, Danny Almonte, Miguel Tejada I could go on. This was a rare situation. However if this is the case Oden could tell us all about the cold war and the Beatles.
Hot sauce in my bag.
This team is as far away from a championship as Dave is from a Pulitzer prize.
There’s nothing wrong with Dave’s voice but the Blazers are far outside the basketball mainstream. The bench is thinner than airmail paper and two of the three best players are rent-a-wrecks; good locally for a day but not to be taken on the road. Add to that we are now the Bobcats West and there’s little reason for joy.
on a scale of one to five...
how realistic an option is Jamal Crawford?
by DefenderOfPants on Jun 29, 2011 1:39 AM PDT reply actions
yeah, i know
i have a feeling the Blazers won’t be able to get a starter-quality big. i was thinking they could sign Crawford and a back-up center – preferably someone who doesn’t expect to start.
but i don’t know if we can afford Crawford, or if he would even come here. which why i asked.
by DefenderOfPants on Jun 29, 2011 2:21 AM PDT up reply actions
for some reason
guys who do nothing but score always seem to get big contracts. I think some team will overpay Crawford because he can score. I don’t think we go after him, I don’t think we could afford to anyway and I don’t think he’d come here anyway.
#52
The rabbit in the hat
was Kenneth Faried. I understand that they saw what they liked in Nolan Smith but the fact is that with the roster as thin as it clearly is, frontcourt should have trumped backcourt from the simplest perspective.
On the positive side, I continue to count myself firmly on the Elliott Williams bandwagon as a guy who can turn some heads and have an genuine impact on the season.
"I take the little gummy bear Flintstones vitamins…I try not to eat the lady. I try not to eat the man. Just give me the car. I try to find the car. Yea, worst case scenario, I eat the lady." - Ron Artest, 2009
That would be nice
Whether it’s Smith, Williams, Chris Johnson, or another guy at least ONE somebody has to leap forward in a big way this season, maybe two somebodies.
—Dave
for the first time in a few years
the big question marks on the bench will have a legitimate opportunity to crash and burn. Crashing and burning is an efficient way to make a decision to make a change.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jun 29, 2011 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions
If any of those guys do something special
I hope its CJ, just because that means Camby and LMA dont have to play the full 48.
Smith and CJ would be grand
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I hope this team signs a legitimate backup post player and waives Chris Johnson.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
Many of the fan's thinks Faried was too one dimensional?
By trading Rudy and Dre, for Ray Ray and Smith we closed the gap between the two old and not ready PG and shooting guards. We have a ton of guards left over to trade for shoring up the front court or in Patty’s case make his compete for a position on the roster again. the same with 3iabler.
If we drop Earl Barron, get somebody that can be productive right now as in Pendergraph, or Joel Freeland, get Greg back and get Camby back to backing up and I think we are good to go.
hg
I wished that Diebler was also fast ...as well as a three point specialist
We could call him 3-Blur
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
It was en route to total domination over the whole NBA. And it was really fun to watch.
“Hope begins in the dark, the stubborn hope that if you just show up and try to do the right thing, the dawn will come. You wait and watch and work: You don’t give up.”
Anne Lamott
by amlmart1 on Jun 29, 2011 3:00 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
What exactly do you miss?
Outside of the 2006 draft, of which there is considerable debate to how much credit he should deserve, KP’s track record was mediocre at best in the following 4 drafts, and he didn’t exactly light it up on the trade front either, Camby being the exception. But Camby was supposed to be a complimentary piece, not an answer in and of himself, and the core melted around him in the end.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
I always wonder why everyone was so in love with KP too
I really think it was just how much he fed the media.
I think it was the fact that....
….he was always out front of the story. Every story! Every time we gripe on how PA won’t tell us what is going on…KP would have been out there telling us what to expect. KP was really the face of the team…now?? It is all secrets
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Is that so bad?
Why do people need to know every little dramatic detail. I personally could use less drama in the media and more information. But I guess I’m a minority there.
We lament the fact that the team doesn't appear to have a plan.
KP would have convinced us that we not only had a plan…but that the plan was good
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
So people like
being lied to. I guess thats true as long as it makes them feel comfortable.
I don't believed he lied
I think he was open ….and it beats this sense that the team lacks direction
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
KP was able to communicate his vision
and the Blazers had success while he was GM. They were taking a clear direction from an articulate basketball man.
Now look what we have. A rudderless, disintegrating team, unable to decide on a general manager (again), whose principal strengths a mere two seasons ago (youth and depth) are now weaknesses.
The key question in my view is not whether injuries or poor drafting influenced their current troubles, but whether the team has a method for getting out of it. Contingencies always happen to any enterprise. Does the enterprise answer them haphazardly, like one frantically spinning plates—or does it face each obstacle with a plan in mind?
While we had KP—or any good GM of the past—it looked like we had a plan. Now, I can’t tell what the plan is. I doubt there is one.
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
that team overachieved by quite a bit
it was a convergence of a bunch of guys best ever years as pros, and was never going to be repeated, and certainly not built upon into something even bigger. Major rotation guys were Blake, Outlaw, Sergio, Rudy and Joel. Every single one of those guys went downhill pretty drastically after that.
As much fun as that season was, it was all one big illusion.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
I would disagree...the players you listed gave this team depth, something we really haven't had since then.
That was huge factor in the success that year. Add in Greg playing the most in his entire career, Brandon Roy at his peak, and having a team for a three point shooters to compliment a healthy Roy.
but my point was all those guys have regressed since then - many have fallen off a cliff
it was fool’s gold. that team as constructed wasn’t going to magically get better. it was a perfect storm of career years by half the rotation.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Many of those player's roles completely changed after that year or were affected by injuries.
Travis outlaw was perfect for coming off the bench, Blake and Roy had developed pretty decent chemistry over the years, and Rudy was never the same player after the Ariza injury for whatever reason. There are legitimate reasons those players excelled that year, but overall the roster just fit together, something that can be said for any successful team.
Regardless, Roy and Oden were not sustainable
Roy especially. That roster without Roy is not capable of great things.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
that roster WITH Roy was not capable of great things
"Well, you can always sell your team."
I think that is certainly debatable
either way we should not be pining for the past
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
they lost in the 1st round, and nearly every major player went downhill the following season
not sure how you could debate that with any kind of sound logic.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
that roster, with health
is the roster we were all so stoked about. Obviously the injuries to Roy and Oden derailed that plan.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
hindsight has proven that roster needed more
even if Roy and Oden were healthy, Blake, Outlaw, etc. weren’t going to be enough to get us to greatness.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Depends how you look at it
That roster at the time Roy was healthy and Oden was healthy ish. If that had continued and we had the same roster, I think with Oden 4 years into the league and Brandon continuing to be a top guard in the NBA, we had a very good chance.
Better chance then OKC
and look where they are.
we don't know what a healthy Oden means
and healthy Roy is a hall of famer..those ain’t bad role players there, and with Roy-LMA-Oden healthy, they would have been free to just be role players
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Yeah, countless people overrated the collective talent of that team.
The worst of it all was Travis Outlaw, whose nonexistent defense, woefully inefficient offense, and lack of court awareness made me cringe whenever he was on the court.
Oh well, I’m just happy that Outlaw is long gone and hope he enjoys spending Mikhail Prokhorov’s money.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
Maybe thats just because Nate's system
that everyone thinks is horrible…actually brings out the best in guys. It’s hard to argue when every single guy we trade ends up playing worse else were.
by AR-15 on Jun 29, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks for the reminder. That was a special group. Now see what you’ve done! I’m all emotional before work! – Elgin
If you are wondering where the junk drawer went, look in at http://pinwheelempire.com
by 22baylor on Jul 6, 2011 8:32 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Say what you will about Rudy, he gave the team a lot of quality minutes last year
So trading away Rudy and Miller for Felton left us down one productive player.
And Batum is not consistent, either. So you are down to 3 consistent players.
This shortened roster is incredibly vulnerable to injury, especially at the Center and PF spots. It makes me sad that we didn’t keep Miller, and even more so that we gutted the roster, losing what could have been a quality pick with Dallas’ 27, to get rid of him.
Now all we need is the rest of the roster to get into "how can everybody help Nicco and Oden" mode. -- Oden Mad, Oden Smash! Sep 29, 2010 7:47 PM
Lamarcus is incredibly dependable.
He will have a backup by season’s beginning. And I doubt the Blazer luck will be as bad as last year: Pendy blowing his knee and Oberto retiring.
/s
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jun 29, 2011 7:51 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
LA played way too many minutes last year.
Nate over uses his good players. By playoff time, our main guys are drained and probably suffering from an accumulation of small injuries.
Stu Inman: a soft-spoken, witty and brilliant basketball guy -- who had so much to do with Portland's only championship. He believed that you won with not just great players, but with great people. (D Jaynes 2-2-07 Portland Tribune)
Rudy is more reliable and consistent than Nic????
Whaaaaaaa…..????
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Losing Fernandez in addition to Miller did not "gut" the roster.
We were trading an old guard with a few years left for a young guard with 8 or 9 years left, and Fernandez became the piece that enabled the trade to go down. Personally, I believe we can pick up a solid front court player this year to help, but I also believe we’re one CBA and the resolution of Roy, Camby and Oden away from being a contender. Next year we’ll have an entertaining team, but unless the new CBA allows us to shed Roy’s contract and we decide to move Camby, we will not solve this debate. We need the cap space to play for players like NeNe, Howard, possibly Okafor and the like. Oden must also, at some point, be resolved. In another year, we may know if we can be a reliable player or not. But then, even if he plays 40 or 50 games in a lockout shortened season, we won’t know that given he could always reinjure himself.
So, yes, we are very short on reliable players. But with the exception of Fernandez, we were just as short last year.
There is a decent chance Rudy will flourish in Dallas
The shooters there cause create great spacing on the floor and Rudy can be a deadly open shooter.
He won’t be counted on to create anything for himself.
They liked him better than anything available in the draft at that point.
"Bart, with $10,000, we'd be millionaires! We could buy all kinds of useful things like...love!" Homer Simpson
by Fugitiveguy on Jun 29, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rudy was a deadly open shooter his rookie year
but has been anything but since. Believe us when we say that he missed a ton of wide open shots this year, and wide open in Portland should be the same as wide open in Dallas. His high value left when his shot did. He’ll probably get it back just because that’s how it works for the Blazers sometimes.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Last year at this time:
—Oden was on his way back from injury, hopefully for the last time.
—Marcus Camby was a year younger and looking like one of the best pick-ups in the league
—Brandon Roy’s injury was still considered temporary
And that’s not counting other players the Blazers had to provide more depth (Przybilla, Fernandez).. Consolidation wasn’t a bad move but the combination of consolidation and the deterioration of players still on the roster have undoubtedly left the Blazers thinner now than they’ve been in years.
—Dave
For sure
But ultimately it feels like this roster has a little direction now. I know you don’t necessarily agree, but it seems like it.
1. The starters are defined, established, and for the most part pretty balanced
2. The bench has two decent (and sometimes spectacular) players at the guard and wing who can shoot the ball well
3. The rest are wildcards but young and among them there will likely be one or two that perform above expectations
What’s not to like?
Rebounding: Camby (although older) is an excellent rebounder. Aldridge is improving, Wallace is awesome, and the guards aren’t too shabby.
Shooting: A little weak here but Aldridge, Matthews, and Felton are serviceable and Roy/Batum are pretty good.
Defense: Solid here. Matthews, Wallace, Camby, and even Aldridge are all very good defensive players.
Pick up a solid mid-level vet and have someone like Chris Johnson step up and we’re in the running.
Creator of Projectile project management/invoicing/time tracking system.
Forgot Batum
when mentioning defense. Other then that, agree 100%. Well, and I don’t have a ton of faith in CJ, he is ok for now, but will need replacing.
Last year at this time:
We were counting on Nic and Jerryd (plus possibly Rudy) having break out years to lift the blazers up.
The Wallace trade shows that they aren’t going to wait for Nic, although they still value him highly for the future. The Miller+Rudy for Felton swap shows that they were done with Rudy, and that they feel the window may be opening soon, but isn’t quite open now. And the picking of Smith instead of a big man just shows that there are better free agent big men than point guards this summer.
The moves for the past 12 months have shown that Paul Allen wants to win soon, and doesn’t want to sit through a rebuliding. He knows that they aren’t quite there right now, or he would have kept Miller. But he knows that, with a bit of luck (as every great team needs), this team could be a contender very soon.
There are question marks, for sure. No team is perfectly constructed. If they were, there would be no reason to play the games.
by Rodney Gustafson on Jun 29, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
"No team is perfectly constructed."
So what? That means nothing. What does mean something, however, is there are numerous teams that are better constructed than Portland.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
numerous teams that are better constructed than Portland.
Really. You think last year’s team, plus a healthy Roy/GO, wouldn’t have stomped some NBA ass?
by GoForthAndDie on Jun 30, 2011 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
At some point camby is the guy to cash in on for dept.
And I thing the teams to deal with are the following…. ( throw ins…$$$$, future picks and the babbits)
New York for turiaf and a couple bench players
Cavs for verajao and a bench player
Kings for a sign and trade with dalembert and tompson….
Phx for Warwick and frye…?
T wolves for tolliver, darko or Randolph?
Or…..
Okafor or boozer…?
But again those are giant contracts…
by Hoi on Jun 29, 2011 6:41 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Turiaf baby
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
totally agree
I have zero interest, maybe less than zero interest, in seeing Anthony Tolliver on this team again.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 29, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't even want to see him play basketball again.
IDC what team its for. At least Sean Marks was fun to laugh at…..and he would hit a mind blowing three once every 15 shots maybe.
At the end of the day
it just boils down to Portland never having enough talent this last decade to be a legitimate playoff contender. I’m not sure Paul Allen & Co. really know which way they want to go with all of this. This will be the last year G.O. holds the franchise hostage so that should make personnel decisions much easier after this season going forward… (assuming they even play this season).
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
I hope they ditch Oden and buy out Roy.
Those guys will likely never be dependable.
/s
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jun 29, 2011 7:54 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
What you say may be very true
Could you not say the same thing about any NBA player with the emphasis on high flying and athletes. I think all players except permanent bench warmers is an accident waiting to happen. Just because it already happened to some, doesn’t exempt others.
I have heard tons and tons of pleas to get CP3 regardless of the fact that he is injured as bad as BRoy. so why dump BRoy and acquire CP3? CP3 will never be dependable either. Or IMO not player in the NBA can be fully dependable
hg
You can't ditch Oden at this point....there are no other legitimate options that wouldn't be a waste of money
by ppilot on Jun 29, 2011 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
agree
I feel like we’re one season away from having a concrete answer on the fate of greg oden. have to pay to see what’s behind the last door.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
One injury to a starter away from a major tanking.
The Blazers had tons of talent and depth just a few seasons ago. They just needed to stay healthy and develop together, and they were ring contenders. It did not happen due to injuries. The cost to cover the injuries just to make the playoffs the last couple of years has emptied the Blazer’s talent piggy bank. Not long ago, the Blazers were one of the deepest teams in the league. Visions of two and three squads danced in Nate’s dreams. All of the players were fighting to be a starter, with reasonable debates that most had the talent to start on some teams. Now the remaining starting caliber players are forced to play extended minutes. Another full season of not enough rest for the starters will increase the odds of future injuries. This team is lacking depth, and in a tight spot. This roster is one injury to a starter away from a major tanking.
by oldfishermen on Jun 29, 2011 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I would add that KP happened.
The J Bay, Claver, Babbitt, and Williams picks could have been for serviceable backup players. It was KP’s drafting, overhyping of players like Blake, Outlaw and Webster, as well as horrible karma with injuries that will define the thin roster during the Frailblazer era.
/s
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jun 29, 2011 8:07 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
agreed
we’ve wasted far too many first round picks the last 5 years. Good teams picking in the mid to late 1st round are targeting solid guys who can play in an 8-9 deep rotation, not gambling on long shot prospects.
"Well, you can always sell your team."
Future mortgaged
In addition to wasted picks, the Blazers already traded away the 2013 first round pick. Looking forward, the Blazers are just about out of assets to make deals and keep the core group. Free agents prospects are limited due to BRoy’s contract. The Blazers are in a very tight spot.
by oldfishermen on Jun 29, 2011 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
cough amnesty cough
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
i agree with you on everything except for the 'tons of talent' statement.
I think they had tons of potential. deep with average players with room to grow. it was that great chemistry that allowed them to achieve what they did in those regular seasons.
In the last 10 years Portland’s only great individual talent has been a back-up all-star in brandon roy (2-3 years) and lma (last year). i’ll even be generous and include greg oden for 25-30 games.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Yes, the Blazers "had" tons of talent
I see you point. Guess the discussion would be around the level of talent. I consider good role players, such as proven outside shooters that have the ambition to be starters, as being talented. The Mavs proved the value of role player talent in the playoffs. There was a time not long ago when Nate had enough talent for two full squads, and possibly even a third. We had tons of talent then. Not all of it was all-star level talent, or even starter talent on a playoff team. But it was higher lever of talent than what we now have after Batum on the bench.
BTW, I hated Nate’s plan to use two full squads in rotation rather than rotating 8 or 9 players. I did not believe it would work. And it was not working. What saved the season from Nate’s flawed experiment were the injuries. Nate has not shown he can not handle a full roster of talented players. But he is very good at handling a short roster.
by oldfishermen on Jun 29, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Double Negative is a positive
Nate has not shown he can not handle a full roster of talented players.
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry for the mistake
Should read. Nate has not shown he can handle a full roster of talented players.
My old eyes do not see as well as they used to.
by oldfishermen on Jun 29, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I was pretty sure that is what you were shooting for
but wanted to make sure
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Nate talks about two units...
But he never played them that way. I think it is making too much of it to say it was a failed experiment. He didn’t and never would have, platooned units in the way people talk about that. All he really meant was being able to be flexible with how he played the game. Playing big, playing small, pushing the tempo, slowing it down into the half court. I think it has worked on some level over the last couple of years but injuries have hampered the flexibility of the team. They end up being forced into playing small instead of being able to bring size into the game when needed.
As much as I liked Miller and wanted to see him succeed in Portland, I think if he had come into Portland with the same attitude we saw at the end, him cheering on his teammates even when he was on the bench, things might have played out a bit differently. I don’t put it all on Miller though. It seems like trust must have been broken at some point early on that led to the early issues in his first year.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
And I mean specifically with the "two unit" concept
And I don’t really mean to dredge up that whole thing…I just liked the concept like Nate did of having a shooter on the floor with Roy and having Miller run things primarily when Brandon was on the bench.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
The odds of two units working are staggering.
Looking back, you have done a better job of describing the situation than I did. However, I did not like the idea of two systems/units, with so many different interchangeable parts. Also, the experimenting Nate was doing with the two systems at the beginning of that season was not working. I forget how many different lineups he used? The team was a mess. Team chemistry did not start to happen until after the injuries and Nate abandoned the two system/unit plan and settled on one system.
Back then, I worked up the mathematical odds for the number of variables using two systems with so many players. The odds of two units working was staggering. The bottom line was, with so many variable lineups, and changing the style of play during a game, it was not possible for team chemistry to develop. End of story on the two system theory.
by oldfishermen on Jun 29, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Oden went down 20 games into the season
It sounds like you wrapped it up there so not much more to say. Except that just because it didn’t work in 20 or even 40 games that it would never work. In my opinion, fans freaked out about that period of time much more than was necessary.
To be honest, I have no idea what you are talking about with the mathematical odds for success with different systems. All I am talking about is being able to play at different paces at different times. Great teams are able to adapt to what they need to do to win games.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
I agree, teams need to adapt to win games
The more time a unit has playing together, the better chance that unit has to adapt successfully. The more players involved in the rotation, the less time each player spends playing with any unit. The lack of playing time together makes it more difficult to adapt. At the same time more players in the rotation increases the variables, again making it more difficult for any unit to adapt. Picking the best 5 players for a situation is not enough. To successfully adapt, they need playing time together to build chemistry.
If I can find my math on this I will post it. Here is a poor example. If all 15 players are used during a game, I believe there are over 95,000 different lineups one team can use during the game. The fewer players used, the fewer possible lineups. The more players used during a game, the worse the odds become of the players being able to adapt to each unit. That is before adding in the increased difficulty caused by the change of tempo and style of play during a game.
There is a lot more to it than were a player positions himself on the floor with different units. The trick is to find the right number of players to rotate during games, then using the same rotation for a many games as possible. This gives each player enough rest while building team chemistry. Nate was using too many players to build team chemistry. The injuries shortened Nate’s rotation, which increased the odds the team would eventually adapt and play better.
by oldfishermen on Jun 29, 2011 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I just read about Wesley Matthews and the torn tendon in his ankle...
… that means you can take him out of the “completely bankable for 82 games” list.
He apparently injured the ankle in January and played through it. He has opted for no surgery this off-season, which probably leaves a bigger injury risk going forward. Grrrrrreat!
I’m usually an optimistic guy, but its almost impossible when assessing the current state of this team. Sure, the talent is there, but the chance that they maximize that talent is minute at best.
I read about that too.
It seems he had it treated and in a boot for 6 weeks and hopes it will be back to 100%. Has there been an update? If not, I think you’re jumping the gun a bit on declaring him an injury risk. His ankle has several months to heal.
/s
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jun 29, 2011 8:10 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
his injury has responded well to PRP.
he now has regained feeling in his foot and toes. something he had lost to a certain exent during the last part of the season. nerves were being pinched by the swelling of the injury.
(per 750 the game)
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Matthews injury was torn ligaments.
That is healable by natural healing that takes a long, long time if you don’t re-injure it Surgery that creates more scar tissue and constrict more movements. He selected to have the New PRP, experimental procedure, which has marginal Proof of speeding up ligament and tendon tear by increasing the plasma to the spot of injury.
Unlike BRoy, which is hoping that Prp will grow new Mencius through cell stemming, Matthews just needs to let his injury heal, and PRP will speed that up. I do know that a severe sprained ankle can taunt you a life time because of unstretchable scar tissue, but it won’t inhibit him from playing
hg
Who gave any player from any team a guarantee of health.?
Dave, I love your posts but you seem to be overly pessimistic now days. You preach on reliable players free from the threat of injury, but there is no such animal. Even the greatly conversed Bowie played about 8 years of productive BB. Although Dre was iron man he was not exempt from injury. Matthews is already injured, but that doesn’t mean he will continue to get injured.
My point is you can continue to look at the glass as half empty because of our injury bug, but that doesn’t free all other players in the NBA from becoming an injury bug. Therefore what is the use? We might as well quit. The injury bug will keep us forever mediocre and down.
Of course you have nuts like me that likes what we got even if they are dragging a leg.
hg
by BBK on Jun 29, 2011 8:18 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Dave has been hanging out with hipster and oregonslee
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Jun 29, 2011 10:26 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
If by "pessimistic" you mean realistic, then yes.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
I don't think lack of depth is a major problem
I think between Smith, Patty & Armon, we are likely to find a capable backup PG for 10-15 minutes a game (I’d bet on Smith personally). And our situation at the wings is fine. It’s really just the bigs where we have a problem, and there are actually a ton of free agent bigs available. I don’t think we need a difference making big either, just a capable rotation player. Reggie Evans, Samuel Dalembert, etc.
If we don’t get anyone via free agency, then I’ll worry. Until then … what me, worry?
Free Agency
Going off Chad Buchanan’s statement about bolstering the frontcourt through free agency, I’ve made a list of players who I think are obtainable with the current Mid-level or Bi-annual exception, and who I wouldn’t mind seeing in a Blazer uniform.
Brandan Wright
Carl Landry
Kyrylo Fesenko
Nenad Krstic
Josh McRoberts
Leon Powe
Kris Humphries
Add or subtract as you see fit, but I think there are a lot of viable options here.
by SeanyC on Jun 29, 2011 9:08 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It has been said already
Krstic has already signed for Cska Moscow (for two years) and he wil be back in Europe next year.
Among the names not often mentioned, i wish the organization still have in mind Seraphin. I doubt washington would ask a lof for him, and maybe a reasonable trade could be made. Especially thinking about oden’s situation. This team will need a real intimidator, and seraphin could be a cheap option (once again, if the price is worth it), even if he will be raw for a while.
Pendy and Joel(if Joel heals)
Joel had the wire removed that was causing pain so the rest of the healing should go without the pain, don’t know yet if he will go ahead and retire or not, but as of Friday he will be a free agent and my bet is he would be glad to rejoin the Blazers.
I know Pendy would, although he has worked out for other teams, I think he still loves Portland.
I wouldn’t love Kris Humphries but that is because he gives me bad vibes only.
hg
I will admit I was perplexed by the draft day moves
I have not been thrilled with the moves the franchise has made since Oden went in for Microfracture II. It isn’t necessarily that the players are bad or won’t produce for the team. Wallace and Felton are proven players and i don’t really have an issue with them. It sounds like with Smith they finally chose someone who is less of a project and could be ready to contribute as a bench player right away.
I just want them to get bigger. I understood the signings of Marks and Oberto to a certain degree because they were waiting for Joel and Oden to rehab. But then they lose Oden, and the response is to trade Joel and Cunningham (who was just starting to fill a role) for a guy who plays some 4 but doesn’t want to play there. Then they move two guards and obtain three guards on draft day…
I know the plan is to sign some size in free agency but I am starting to get nervous that this coming year is going to turn out like last year, enough talent to make some noise but no real substance to push them into serious contention.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
We've been over this argument plenty by now.
Everyone has their opinions & a lot of people like the idea of Iggy 2 Portland.
Get it done... Paul.
For some maybe
but thats only because the headlines say that Iggy is one of the best all around players in the NBA & his game passes the eye test too.
Get it done... Paul.
The cost of consolidation.
Back in 2007, we all knew some kind of consolidation was coming. And if we knew how it would all fold out roster wise, we’d be thrilled. But back then we wouldn’t have assumed that Roy would have dead knees. We’ve had three solid players and added four more. It’s just that two of our three original players are no longer as solid as we thought they were. And that is a crippling blow to any team. Would the Lakers still be in the playoffs without Kobe and Gasol? That’s how much Roy and Oden were going to mean to this team.
And yet we’ve managed to pick up Matthews and Felton and Wallace and Batum. Two trades, one signing and one draft pick. All of whom are better than average players. That’s a solid trending up in talent, despite the catastrophic setbacks this team has faced.
Right now, this roster has an Oden shaped hole in it. A giant, gaping Oden sized hole. A hole so big, that it may take two players to fill. As excited as I am about this team, I think it takes more than this offseason to adequately fill that hole. We can certainly sign or trade for part of that filling. But we’re going to have to rely on some very green players this season. And one player signed with the MLE.
But what makes Portland a destination for MLE level players? Playing time. As a big, Portland has a ton of minutes to offer. Maybe even a starting role for a center. I don’t think we’re going to get a Chandler or a Nene, not with the MLE. But there are a lot of players who can fill that role available. None of them are going to be home runs. None of them are the next star we need to push us over the top. But we’re not going over the top next year anyways.
Part of the reason for going with Felton over Miller is that we got significantly younger. We bought a few years of playing together with an early prime core. We wont solve all the problems in one offseason. But over two or three? The same front office that brought in these solid players will have the opportunity to bring in some more, without worrying about losing key players to retirement.
I’m happy with where Portland is right now. I know it’s not a finished roster (if there ever were such a thing), but it is a long-term roster. A roster that can be further built upon. A roster that can grow without having to change the makeup of everything. I’m still expecting a low seed next year, if we have a next year. I think we might end up with one more first round exit. And I know that will cause no end to the lamenting. But I like the long term picture for this team, something I couldn’t say before this last draft day. If anything, it will keep the Portland Trailblazers story interesting.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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by T Darkstar on Jun 29, 2011 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
what do you think of Fesenko?
seems more getable than a lot of the other names i’ve been seeing.
by DefenderOfPants on Jun 29, 2011 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Jazz fans were high on Fesenko.
I don’t know that he’s the starting Center of the future. He’s certainly no 2008 Greg Oden. But he does have some of the skills we need from that position.
I would not at all be opposed to picking him up. He is unrestricted, but Jazz fans are really going t think we have it out for them. Not that I mind. :)
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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all the more reason to do it!
yeah, i don’t think we should expect to get a starting center out of free agency.
by DefenderOfPants on Jun 29, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Babbitt will play the back up 4 spot this year.
Babbitt and Chris Johnson will get minutes this year, come hell or high water. Of course, there will be plenty of time with an LA-Batum-GW frontline also. The real problem comes when Camby is out, and Johnson starts. For those games, they need a Juwan Howard type who can plug in. I vote Kurt Thomas.
I thought Babbitt is a 2 guard, no?
"Coach said to always be careful around Greg, because Greg costs a lot and even the slightest amount of basketball can damage him." -- The Onion
No, he's a 3-4.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Yeah, he's a combo forward.
I’d go with 4/3, though, as he lacks the lateral quickness needed to play the 3 effectively on defense.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
They need to rebuild.
I said this all last season. Either that or they wait it out and hope to get lucky and land an elite player via a trade because if they don’t they will be good enough to make the playoffs but not great enough to get anywhere.
I think the chances through a total rebuild are about as good as taking a shot with the current group.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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by T Darkstar on Jun 29, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
People like to propose this
But our last rip and rebuild didn’t work….and it took 5 years of lottery action do even that. I don’t get why people find this option attractive
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
There are never any guarantees.
One way, you have to wait five more years, to get back to where we are now. Neither way is a sure bet, but why add five years to the bet when both have about the same chances?
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Yes...this is my thought too
Plus a season ticket holder …I would have a hard time investing that kind of money into watching the Telfair’s and Ratlifs of the world for another 5 years
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Understood.
But they have a better chance at landing an elite player rebuilding. We’re noting going to get one by hopefully waiting for one to hit the market. You don’t win without them, history kind of supports this theory.
BTW, that last rebuilding effort was only unsuccessful because of injuries. Imagine Roy without troubled knees and Oden being the dominant big man he looked like he was going to be before his last knee blowout.
It takes time to rebuild, unless you can get lucky, but being a middling team for the foreseeable future just prolongs that hope of winning a title even longer.
They'd have a viciously hard time
rebuilding at this point. I guess the clearest way out would be an amnesty clause getting rid of Roy and Oden accepting the one-year Q.O. and then departing via free agency. Maybe you’d let Felton go too and certainly Camby. But if that’s the plan then all of this motion in the meantime was wasted.
Basically they can’t rebuild with a straight face. But the overall look at the roster demonstrates how difficult it’s going to be for them to leap forward from here. They’re stuck between unpalatable options and needing a way out badly. Right now that’s Oden and Roy healthy-ish…again.
—Dave
Wouldn't you want to trade all those players
For high first round picks and iffy back ups that could be our new starters? That way we suck enough to get into the lotto and have a bunch of first rounders every year to build with? Doesn’t make sense to just let everyone walk.
Roy can't be traded
And it’d be hard to trade those kind of salaries for back-ups or draft picks, especially if the whole league is struggling to work their way down to a lower cap figure. You couldn’t trade them for expiring contracts either, as they ARE the expiring contracts. This is why I’m saying the Blazers can’t really rebuild at this point.
—Dave
He's the only untradable player Portland has though.
To rebuild, is to suck. It can’t be that difficult to find a way to suck. If you think about it, it probably would have served Portland better these past two seasons sucking than trying to make the playoffs just to get bounced in the first round.
I understand the CBA is going to be harsh, but that’s not going to stop clubs from spending money. That’s not going to stop teams from trying to make a run at championships. Portland has attractable players that can be dealt, what they get in return might not be much, but does it matter as long as they suck?
That to me is at least a plan, you’re at least attempting to build towards something. Right now, they’re just hoping something good happens because really that’s all they have left – hope.
Winning breeds winning ...and the inverse is true too
it probably would have served Portland better these past two seasons sucking than trying to make the playoffs just to get bounced in the first round.
If you have a chance to make the playoffs you do it
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I in no way think we should blow it up
I’m just saying if thats the plan, you don’t let the whole team walk. You take the pieces you have, you get as many first round picks as you can get for them while still having enough players on the roster to lose a lot of games.
Just to fail?
The key is to continue to better the franchise while building towards something more promising than just making the playoffs.
The year before the Spurs got Tim Duncan they were a team decimated by injuries as a result they sucked and subsequently nabbed the #1 pick changing the course of their franchise.
Similar thing happened to the Bulls the year before they got Rose.
Portland took a different approach. Trade for Camby and Wallace just to make the playoffs and instead of quality picks they were left with Babbitt, Armon, Smith and Diebler.
You need to suck to get better, especially when you don’t have the necessary talent to improve your club.
Ask the GS Warriors how sucking is working out for them
1 playoff appearance since the 93/94 season
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
You get your best players in the draft.
It’s been that way for 50 years.
Just because a couple of clubs seem to be perpetually rebuilding, doesn’t mean that’s the same fate for every other club who finds their way into the lottery. Many clubs have successfully gotten franchising players out of the draft in fact the majority of the teams do.
All those years sucking and then landing Dirk paid off for Dallas. Sometimes you’re stuck sucking for a long period of time before you land one of those guys, but if you can get it’s worth the wait.
I’d rather suck for 20 years trying to land a once in a lifetime game changing player and ultimately win a title, than make the playoffs a bunch of times and ultimately not win a title because you don’t have the right talent.
Actually Dallas is a good example of my point
I will bet you a lot of people with this mindset were saying that Dallas needed to be broken up after winning 50 games a year for 11 years straight with no titles….til they finally got the right combo of players and luck to get it done this year.
PS I know we don’t have Dirk
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2011 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Dallas is completely different than Portland
They were close, knocking on the door to a title, so simple adjustments was all that needed to be made. They also lucked out that this postseason was funky and more open than usual.
Portland is a middling team. Good enough to make the playoffs, but not great enough to advance. They are also no bad enough to get quality picks. They are running on treadmills and that’s the worst kind of team you can be.
Exactly, but I'll go a step further with some telling numbers.
From 2000-2001 through 2009-2010, Dallas won nine playoff series. If you count 2010-2011, that number becomes thirteen.
From 2000-2001 through 2009-2010, Portland won zero playoff series. If you count 2010-2011, that number is still a big, fat zero.
That doesn’t even get into the astronomical gap between the two teams in regular season games won during that time frame.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
This argument is neither fair nor comparable
From 2000-2001 through 2009-2010, Portland won zero playoff series
I seem to remember us trying to put the plan, that you both advocate, into action during that time frame. It is hard to win a playoff series when you are not even in the playoffs for 5 out of the 10 years in question. You can’t have it both ways.
Me after hearing of a Rudy Hardwood Classic Jersey going for $45:"Take the "RNANDEZ" part off....and sew on a "LTON and you are good to go"."
by 92wastheyear on Jun 30, 2011 5:52 AM PDT up reply actions
The Mavericks are just plain superior to the Trail Blazers.
Heck, I’d been saying that for years and will continue to say it.
Why? Because it’s true.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
In the NBA, it's better over time to dismantle and rebuild than be middling for ...
years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years and years.
Never settle for mediocrity.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
Great Photo....
That photo of Brandon and Oden currently running with this piece? IMO great photo. Unfortunately kind of captures in one image…the death of a dream.
The caption running with it? Not as good. IMO we have to stop thinking of either Brandon or Oden as “The Calvary”. That’s not to say, I’m not hoping for the best from both of them or either of them. Just that as far as building the team? You have to fight, like the Calvary ISN’T coming…
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Agreed.
If it comes, Huzzah! If not, have a plan in place, and I think Portland is working on that.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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we need bigs...
With what we have now we are hamstrung in the front court. I say go for broke and get back into contention. We send Camby and Batum or Mathews plus Armon/Babbit and/or other filler, depending on what we are getting back, for Nene and Chandler or Afflalo. Or maybe a little less for Okafor and another. Sign Fesenko or Haddadi. Pick up one of the better undrafted banger bigs like Rick Jackson. Keep LMA, sign Oden just in case, keep CJ. Amnesty Roy if possible. We would have Felton, Smith, Williams, Mathews or Batum, Wallace, LMA, Oden, and CJ (as 3rd option back up big who may blossom) as the core. Everyone else could be used to make it happen. Also throw in Dalembert and Landry as possibles w/ talent to shore up the frontcourt.
throw chuck hayes name in too.
He’s not that tall but plays big. Unrestricted too I believe.
I have to imagine that the team’s priority is to get a big man in Free Agency after getting Felton and Smith. They’ve always got a plan right? So they must have a big man FA in mind. If they can get a suitable 4/5 back-up I think we’ll be okay.
Oden remains the Big Question Mark (hey, Shaq’s retired so…), but really I think chemistry and hunger is always the key as the Mavs and other championship teams in the past have shown. There always seems a way that we can get better but I think it really comes down to your top 7 guys to show it on the court. Now that these younger blazers are maturing and there is a more veteran presence on team, I think they will start to understand that there isnt always a tomorrow, but you have to win now.
I think more than individual player talent, you have to have that fight and scrap. I know I sound like McMillan, but there is a reason he is always saying that – he aint seeing it on the court every night. That lack of scrap and fight is what led GW and Felton getting brought in. The blazers scrap at times, but it usually seems to always be fueled by what happens on the offensive end. I’m tired of not seeing the team impose its will consistently. We started to see it more when GW arrived and I am ready to sign a back up big man and let the guys take the court and play hard every night. No other worries.
by merseykersey on Jun 29, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
The best option at this point
Is to trade Batum for a good big man. There are only about 2 ir 3 decent big Free Agents, and Dave is right – why would we have a shot at any of them when everybody can offer them MLE money. Basically, we’re only going to get filler and that won’t cut it. Shouldn’t count on Oden to give much this season; he only really becomes useful after 2011-2012 (if we can sign him). We desperately need to cash that chip in called Nicolas Batum. I agree with Dave on the prognosis of the team if we stand pat.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
Bring back Godzilla!!! The Przybilla Vanilla Gorilla from Manilla!!! Willya?
He’ll Billya but it won’t be many Millyia(n).
LaMarshmallow - Distant Memory.
Sorry...too many scooby snacks.
LaMarshmallow - Distant Memory.
DeAndre Jordan?
Why is DeAndre Jordan not mentioned at all? Am I missing something about his availability? The guy is a legit C.
by 1977 Blazer fan on Jul 5, 2011 12:15 PM PDT reply actions
Donatas Motiejunas
IMO the Nolan Smith pick was a luxury pick for Nate and an over focus on PG when the team really needed solid 4-5 to develop for the future.
Donatas Motiejunas could have been had by the blazers instead of Nolan and I will be watch to see how he develops.
by 1977 Blazer fan on Jul 5, 2011 12:23 PM PDT reply actions
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