The Misconception Behind the Blazers' Failure To Pick Faried, Blair, et al

by hurryup09 on Jun 26, 2011 2:19 PM PDT

Draft after draft, the Trailblazers have failed to draft a great rebounder to come off the bench--a Paul Milsap-type. Most recently, they passed on DeJuan Blair not once but three times and let Kenneth Faried slip away. Sure, after the fiasco of the Houston Rockets playoff series--in which the stringbean Blazer forwards got manhandled by the Rocket wide-bodies--the Blazers drafted Jeff Pendegraph. But there's a world of difference between a Blair or Faried and a Pendegraph. The problem: the Blazers' talent evaluators DON'T REALIZE THIS! Why is the question.

The reason, in my opinion, is that there's a prevalent misconception about rebounding. You hear it all the time, spouted by so-called hoops experts: "rebounding is all effort." WRONG. Great rebounders work hard, no doubt. But they also possess a GIFT--one every bit as rare as that possessed by great outside shooters. Having the gift, they feel motivated to develop it--just as talented shooters do when they discover they have a knack for putting the ball in the hoop. But contrary to what the Mike Rices of the world say, a Travis Outlaw has no more chance of becoming a great rebounder than Chris Dudley had of becoming a knock down 3-point shooter.

Why am I so certain of this? Mainly because I had "the gift" myself. Don't laugh at this part: I was a 5'9" guard who never played beyond the high school level. I could barely touch the rim. But when the ball went in the air, I knew where it was going to come off the basket. More accurately, my BODY knew, because I didn't think about it: I just instinctively started heading to that spot the moment the ball left the shooter's hand. Because I generally knew where the ball was going before anyone else on the court, I had a big advantage in blocking out or subtly "nudging" opponents off balance. And I was nearly always able to time my jump perfectly. (Exceptional timing--in a number of respects--is part of "the gift.") The result was that I was able to get rebounds away from taller players more times than not.

Because I had the rebounding knack, I relished it. That's where the "hard work" part comes in. Because I knew I had a great chance of success, I didn't mind the exertion and the contact. Forget scoring (I was an inconsistent shooter)--I loved frustrating bigger opponents by coming up with rebound after rebound. When I heard them yelling at each other, "Will someone block out that midget?" it was music to my ears.

This isn't to say that rebounding is ALL about "the gift." You don't see a lot of 5' 9" rebounders in the NBA--or even in high school. When games started getting played above the rim, I had to get out of the paint and get back on defense like a guard is supposed to! Elite rebounders need some combination of height, reach, quickness, a wide lower body, and leaping ability. Preferably all of the above. My point is that all that is useless if they don't have "the gift" as well.

Paul Silas had it. Moses Malone had it. Dennis Rodman had it. Paul Milsap has it. Kevin Love has it. DeJuan Blair has it. So do a lot of other NBA players past & present. But it's not actually that long a list--certainly no longer than the list of great shooters. From all that I've heard, Kenneth Faried has "the gift," yet the Blazers passed on him at #21. The reason, I believe, is that they don't even know that "the gift" exists.

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I think we all wanted Faried but the trade for Felton was contingent on us not picking him at 21

But we could have gotten Gary McGhee from Pitt or Matthew Bryan-Amaning out of UW as good prospect power forward backups in the second round at the 57th pick we sold to Minnesota that was wasted on a 26 year old because Minnesota didn’t do their homework. They can hopefully still bring in some undrafted power big guys into training camp when and if there is a season this year. And although we spurned Pendegraph by releasing him I always liked his energy playing behind Joel and Aldridge and Joel if healthy will be welcomed back with open arms.

Besides they aren’t winning the title this year anyway so by default they avoid the only other definition of "waste" that matters.

—Dave

by TheOdenator52 on Jun 26, 2011 2:26 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I think Blazers fans are forgetting about Gerald Wallace

Who is the same size as Faried, is better on offense than Faried will ever be, and almost lead the league in rebounds per game his all-star season. My guess is the Blazers did want Faried, but felt comfortable passing him up because Wallace is better in almost every way.

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 26, 2011 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Really, Wallace is as suited for the 4 as Faried is

But has the skill to play the 3 also, which makes him look more like a tweener then Faried when in reality he is as much a 4 and his ability to play the 3 is just a plus.

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 26, 2011 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know who started this idea.

But calling Faried a promise to the Nuggets sounds an attempt to justify the actions of the front office. There is no evidence. There is no one close to the situation insinuating it. Just Blazer fans who are angry that the guy we wanted so badly s not the guy the front office chose to go with.

And so “it was part of the deal” is used as a foil to either protect or attack the choice of Nolan Smith. And it’s all a red herring.

i certainly wouldn’t have minded Faried. I was hoping for him myself. I certainly wouldn’t have minded using the 57th ourselves on a big man (or 51 for that matter). But there’s a lot of offseason left to play.

"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man

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by T Darkstar on Jun 26, 2011 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

I’ve only seen it here on BE as an assumption.

by JeffePortland on Jun 26, 2011 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you are dead wrong on Blair

He started the season strong and disappeared long before the all-star break. he was a non factor for the Spurs after 35 games and it remains to be seen if he will ever have much more of a career.

by oregonslee on Jun 26, 2011 3:03 PM PDT reply actions

I dunno

I’ve seen Blair dominate NBA games simply with his rebounding ability. It can give teams fits. I too noticed the falloff in Blair’s production as this season wore on. My guess: his knees are indeed proving problematic—as teams feared when they passed on him in the draft.

Here’s the thing, though. If Blair does eventually need ACL surgery on both knees, that’s not a career-ending procedure anymore. Far from it; guys come back 100% within a season. This is why I feel the Blazers should have taken Blair in the second round, knees or no. Great rebounders, like great shooters, don’t grow on trees—even if the Blazers’ brass seems to think they do. If you can get one in the second round, you do so.

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Jun 26, 2011 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Blair's knees

it’s my understanding that he doesn’t have any ACLs at all and thus will never need to have ACL surgery.

by Docproc on Jun 26, 2011 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions

thats what I heard too.

by vullkem116 on Jun 26, 2011 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions

That's certainly not accurate

ACL reconstruction is performed on ACL-deficient knees. I had it done myself—back in the bad old days when that meant open knee surgery.

What I DON’T know is the condition of Blair’s meniscus. The ACL has been termed “the Guardian of the Meniscus.” Its role is to rein in the rotation of the joint; when that isn’t accomplished, the meniscus is at risk.

So while simply having no ACL’s is a condition that can be fixed nowadays (with about a 1-year rehab timetable), badly damaged or missing meniscus is another matter—as we’re seeing with Brandon Roy.

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Jun 27, 2011 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions

I was never sold on Faried

He may be a great rebounder. He may not. It sounds like he may struggle at least out of the gate because he is not that heavy but what do I know. I do think they can get someone who will rebound and might actually be able to contribute on offense too. As for the gift…i guess some possess better timing, anticipation, ability to read angles…etc. But I also think hard work can make up for deficiencies in rebounding expertise more than other areas of basketball skills/gifts.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jun 26, 2011 5:11 PM PDT reply actions

I respectfully disagree

Most people think it’s virtually impossible to teach/learn shooting. But Karl Malone went from a brick layer to a knock down shooter out to 17 feet. Similarly, hard work and good coaching transformed Joel Przybilla from a horrible free throw shooter to an average one. But I’ve never seen a poor rebounder become an outstanding one.

The misconception is that shooting is a skill that can’t be developed, whereas rebounding isn’t even a skill at all—it’s just about effort. As I tried to explain in my post, that’s not the case.

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Jun 26, 2011 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions

All basketball skills require some level of athleticism that is then developed

Rebounding is one of those skills. I agree that some have a knack for getting to the ball. Is that this “gift” of which you speak? or is it desire? It is a combination of both I am sure. But I still think it is easier to teach a willing pupil to rebound than it is to shoot. The desire is what separates them at that point. (opinion)

As for Faried, my point was, and I did not make this very clear, he sounds like a one trick pony. Maybe he will be a better rebounder than anyone the Blazers can sign in FA this summer. Shooting was a huge deficiency on the team last year and I would wager his inability in this area may have swayed them to pass. It seems pretty clear from the draft day moves that they are counting on signing Oden and a lockout costing them some games to give time for Oden to come back. Pendergraph is probably on their radar as well for the same reason.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jun 27, 2011 6:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Great rebounders aren't always heavy or tall

E.g., Paul Silas & Adrian Dantley (short), and Dennis Rodman & Larry Smith (slender). As I said, it starts with a knack—“the gift.” Combine that with just SOME of the desirable physical characteristics, and you can have a monster rebounder.

Based on Faried’s college stats, that’s what he is. And it’s been shown time & time again that rebounding is a skill that translates very well from level to level—even as the competition gets bigger and stronger.

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Jun 26, 2011 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions

notice that the short guys on your list played a long time ago.

The league has only gotten taller with time.

by vullkem116 on Jun 26, 2011 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions

There are still above-average rebounding guards

E.g. Dwyane Wade is one, he often runs to the area around the foul line after a ball goes up where he has few competition for the ball plus gets some tip outs. Of course he also has good vert, but most of all he has good spacing and timing. I’d even argue Rudy was an underrated rebounder especially on offense. Raymond Felton now also is a better rebounder than many guards, so was Miller who are about equal in that regard.

by Norsktroll on Jun 26, 2011 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Mhm, in rebounding rate Miller was better than the totals suggest. He was tied for 7th last year among PGs, while Felton was tied with Steve Blake in the 30s.

by Norsktroll on Jun 26, 2011 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Yet in 2009-10 they were tied at 11. So not all hope is lost ;-)

by Norsktroll on Jun 26, 2011 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Your premise seems to be that you know something about baskerball that the team does not

If this is accurately stated, it seems a perilous premise. I;m pretty sure that these folks over there have watched and studied numerous players to determine differentiation on all sorts of skills including rebounding.

The passing on Blair (whom you think if s better player than, what, 29 teams believed) did not seem so bad whenyou look at his production. He suffered against his opponents (according to 82games.com) from a negative net production of -3.7. his plus/minus (same source) was -3.4. In the playoffs this year Blairs production dropped significantly to a 9.2 PER. That is not a player to take us to the championship. He is a good rebounder., He is not a good defender (82games.com has him at a 107 rating on defense).

As for Faried, I was hoping he would be picked based on the hope that he passed muster with the team’s talent evaluators. It was not to be. Perhaps Nolan Smith will be able to provide more for the team with more minutes (Rudy’s 25?) than a backup PF (10?) after his first year.

by lee3022 on Jun 26, 2011 11:16 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Oh, certainly some people in the Blazers' organization value "the gift", or the rebounding knack

But it’s pretty clear to any objective observer that there’s some serious dysfunction in the Blazers organization. With politics to deal with, those voices in the organization who appreciate just how special and valuable gifted rebounders are may be unable to win the day.

If your job survival depends on being a yes man, you learn to keep your head down and say “yes.”
E.g., “Yes, let’s draft yet another semi-talented combo guard. You can’t have enough of them.”

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Jun 27, 2011 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

While I agree...

with many of your comments and observations about rebounding and what makes a great rebounder, I cannot then make the speculative jump to the assumption that this means that “They (The Blazers) don’t even know the gift exists”. I’d assume exactly the opposite. Not drafting DeJuan Blair and Faried does not mean that perhaps many, many people within The Blazers scouting and coaching staff don’t have a full and deep knowledge of what makes a great rebounder.

Neither Denver nor Portland has admitted publically to part of the Felton deal…or any deal being The Blazers agreeing to pass on Faried. So assuming it wasn’t? Then I simply believe that The Blazers drafted the player that was available that they wanted.

The reasons The Blazers passed on Faried and chose Nolan Smith? Might be as diverse in explanation as your explanation of the “art” of rebounding. Or it might be as simple as The Blazers feeling with Aldridge and Wallace as starters….our greatest question mark came from the future of the PG position.

Either way, even given the validity of your ideas concerning rebounding and being a rebounder, I cannot attach this to a belief that passing on DeJuan Blair and Faried means the Blazer brain trust do not know how to evaluate a rebounder and/or value the skill of rebounding. There are too many other factors that influence a draft day decision.

Even if it becomes later revealed that passing on Faried WAS part of the Felton deal, I still do not think that necessarily supports your premise.

"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"

by Krang on Jun 27, 2011 12:00 PM PDT reply actions

Well, first: I probably overstated that last sentence (even with my qualifier, "I believe...")

I should have said something like, “I suspect.”

Having said that, I wasn’t just looking at the Faried and Blair cases. For me there’s been a long pattern of the Blazers apparently failing to properly value and appreciate talented rebounders. Just look at the team’s roster: Batum, LMA, Camby, Trout (OK, he’s been traded), Chris Johnson…what a collection of stringbeans! To quote the headline of one of my past fanposts, “Where’s the Beef?” I suspect that if you simply added up the combined weight of the Blazers’ roster, it would be significantly lighter than other playoff teams.

In Gerald Wallace, the Blazers now have a small forward who can get after it on the boards—somewhat slender or no. But, significantly, Wallace came in a trade, not the draft. Time and time again, year after year, the Blazers have passed on the kind of tough, physical forwards that championship contenders send off the bench in waves—particularly during the playoffs, when things get much more physical.

Come playoff time, every extra possession your team can get—or prevent the opponent from getting—is critical. And by passing on guys like Blair & Faried, the Blazers are missing out on those possessions.

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Jun 27, 2011 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions