Draft Day breakdown

Preamble: I'm writing this without reading any other analysis, and only researching things like any dates or stats I might throw out.  These thoughts are all mine - they're Kraigeriginals.

First of all, let's set the record straight.

I loved Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez and they will always have a place in Blazers lore.  Dre brought some of the best veteran leadership we've seen in my lifetime, at least.  Rudy brought some Euro flair and a sexy grin that couldn't keep most women OR MEN at bay.

But, more importantly, tonight's draft was aaaaaaaaaaaall about basketball.  A) the NBA is a business.  B) the point of an NBA franchise is to win games in both the short and long runs. C) the Trail Blazers had a couple needs going into the draft, and they started the process of addressing them with tonight's moves and draft picks.

Most trades are "basketball moves," with some exceptions being when a player is disgruntled specifically with a team's situation (see: Deron Williams in Utah) or when a player's off-court activity or attitude constitutes the team looking to move the player to improve the locker room atmosphere and/or pressure on the coaching staff (see: Zach Randolph leaving Portland).   Others can be salary dumps or deadline deals for various reasons.  Most draft day trades are basketball moves.

Let's get one thing straight: tonight was 100% basketball move - for Denver, Dallas and Portland.  Rudy Fernandez is a professional athlete, and capable of playing in the NBA.  He had a phenomenal rookie season in '08-'09, setting the record for three-point field goals made by a rookie.  Unfortunately, he trailed off in the 3pt department the following season, and then this past year Portland snagged Wesley Matthews who was a better fit with Andre Miller and played defense at a substantially better rate than Rudy.  Rudy's fit in Dallas has some folks puzzled.  Basically he could be their starting shooting guard barring any setbacks.  His athleticism, quick shot, love for running the fast break (as both a distributor and a finisher) will mesh very well with Jason Kidd as well as Dirk Nowitzki, Carno Butler, Shawn Marion and Tyson Chandler (assuming Butler and Chandler are re-signed this offseason).  Jason Terry is not a starter (not because he's not talented enough, but because he has accepted his role and flourishes as a 6th man) for this team, JJ Barea is in the same boat, and DeShawn Stevenson is probably cursing right now as he is expendable now.  Rudy can play some limited backup PG minutes if needed, but is poised to be Kidd's backcourt wingman for the 20+ minutes a game that Terry doesn't play.

Dre, Dre, Dre... I might not miss any other ex-Blazer as much as I will miss Mr. Miller.  He came at the right time, played the right way, did ALL the little things, and ate hot dogs in the offseason.  What more could you ask from a savvy vet?  Many called into question aspects of his game that he more than made up for with stellar play in other areas.  Many wondered if his heart was in it after getting overlooked (and underpaid?) during '09 free agency.  But he came into training camp not performing up to Coach Nate's expectations and ended up beasting expectations very quickly (anybody remember him airing out in Denver?  best moment ever).  I will miss his subtle toughness and poise on the court.  I will truly miss watching him play for Portland.  He should have been here for a decade.

As they say, out with the old...

and in with the new. 

Speaking of should'ves, Raymond Felton should have been in black and red since '05 when Portland made one of the worst decisions in draft day history (if you don't know, I'm not going to tell you now).  Well, he was one of three or four players that should have been here instead of who was.  And now that mistake turned into Luke Babbitt, and... I can't even talk about it.  For anyone who thinks Felton is a downgrade from Miller, all I can say is "using what metric?"  The ONLY potential argument is that Miller has more experience.  Miller's never won a playoff series, so is that experience really so valuable that we shouldn't have traded him?  Miller and Felton are both in similar contract situations - roughly $7.5 million owed this year, then free agents.  Felton is only 27 (or will be on Sunday) - aka eight years younger than Miller.  Felton's in his prime, eager to be a starter and lead a team.  He has championship experience at the NCAA level, comes from a well-respected program (GO HEELS) and to my knowledge has never been a locker room or management problem.  Portland has been rumored to be interested for years, specifically while he was playing in Charlotte.  Getting younger, and having a little more of a versatile and willing scorer at the PG position is valuable.  Miller was always sort of a reluctant scorer, which I feel cost us some possessions late in games.  Felton can also push the tempo and run a mean pick-and-roll (expanding LaMarcus Aldridge's game a bit).  I've never paid much attention to Felton's defense (career averages of +.1 spg, even bpg compared to Miller), but it's not like Miller was winning any awards on that side of the court.  Call it a draw?  Felton can really develop and flourish with the know-how of Nate McMillan - and that pairing excites me a lot.

Other positives about Raymond Felton:

- His familiarity with Gerald Wallace.  Ray and Crash played together for a few years in Charlotte where they developed chemistry that should help bring Crash back to some of his best playing days.

- His style of play is closer to Brandon Roy's, meaning that for some stretches Roy can play backup PG to help let him do his thing and get into the groove of the game but not relying on him too much (this is assuming Roy isn't shed in a salary cap amnesty clause move a la Derek Anderson a few years back).

- A PG who is a little more of an offensive threat opens up the paint area for the Aldridges and Odens of the world.  How do you think Dwight Howard has so many one-on-one defensive schemes thrown at him?  Threats spreading the floor.

Nolan Smith vs. Kenneth Faried

I'm with almost everyone in the "Wait a minute, Kenneth Faried was available at #21 and we reached for Nolan Smith?" camp.  I'm in total agreement with thinking that a tough, smart, hardworking PF to help spell LaMarcus would be amazing - but I use Dallas as an example of why we can survive without a great backup PF situation: Dirk's backup was Brian Cardinal and he tallied 30 minutes TOTAL in five NBA Finals games this year.  Aldridge will have to rise to the occasion at some point.

Using traditional methods and instincts, I do NOT love Nolan Smith.  Strike one is the university that just issued him a degree (you saw the shameless "GO HEELS" up there).  On that note, however, I should say that Smith was a warrior and a beast while #1 overall pick Kyrie Irving was out for 26 games this year, filling all starting PG duties flawlessly, leading Duke deep into the tournament and posting remarkable overall stats (reminiscent of Brandon Roy) his senior year.  His downside is that we don't know how well he can play the PG position long-term.  I still have a sneaking suspicion we may not be keeping him, but for now he's a Blazer.

Faried's motor is intense, and I was basically ready and willing to draft him based on that alone.  Every team needs a guy like that.  Remember how much we almost paid for Paul Millsap?  Same basic player, only cheaper.  No-brainer pick, it seemed... but Chad Buchanon had other plans.  Let's hope they pan out.

2nd rounders: probably inconsequential

Jon Diebler can shoot the ball.  That's about all I know, and you can never have too many shooters (we usually have precisely one or less than one).  Dallas just won a title with an army of shooters - and their backup PF was Brian Cardinal... I know I just said that last paragraph, but I don't think that argument needs much backing up.

I know nothing about Tanguy Ngombo, other than that he's a 6'6" SF from Qatar (or actually the Congo, but has been playing in Qatar - apparently he didn't want to stay for the World Cup in three years).  Just another Eurostash guy, maybe to be brought over someday to complete an entirely new team made up of only ex-draft picks who have been kept overseas for a while.  Who knows.

Plus, we can always bring back Jeff Pendergraph.