The Blazer's Plan/Direction
by wilson7117 on Jun 24, 2011 2:34 AM PDT
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PrintSome people have expressed dissatisfaction with the Blazers not having a direction or plan with this years draft. Here's what I think the plan is, how tonight fit in and why I think it was a success.
The Plan
1) Use draft day to find a long term solution at PG and to improve our 3pt shooting
2) Use the FA to improve our frontcourt depth and rebounding woes
3) Maintain enough talent and flexibility to be able to pursue elite talent if/when it becomes available
Explanation in more depth below
1) I love Miller (where is his appreciation thread btw?), but the sad reality is that, without major changes, any improvement in 3pt shooting had to be done at the starting PG spot. This is because our 2 and 3 rotations are set and backup PG and PF don't play enough minutes to make a sizable difference, especially in the 4th quarter. If you're like me and feel like better outside shooting is an absolute must, then you have to move Andre. The Blazers aren't competing for a championship in the next year or two, so you should also try and get somebody young.
Goal: Get a young PG with an outside shot while keeping as much of the PG skills that Andre possessed without giving up enough assets to jeopardize part 3 of the plan. Hopefully improve defensively as well.
Status: Check. I can't think of anyone else that fills this goal better than Felton.
Why the Nolan Smith Pick makes some sense
After Buchanan and the gang finalized the Felton trade this was our depth chart and we had one first round pick:
Felton / ??? / AJ
We$ / Roy / EWill
G3 / Batum / Babbitt
LA / ??? / CJ
Oden / Camby / ???
The questions I would ask are: Which question mark would I rather fill with a rookie? and What opportunities are there in the free agency to fill those question marks? To question one, with Oden and Camby's history I think its safe to say you don't want a rookie at third string center. I think you could make a compelling case for either of the other two question marks. On to question two.
Available FA PGs: Ford, Arroyo, Telfair, Williams, Watson, Barea
Available FA PFs: Landry, Hayes, Martin, Davis, Turiaf, Murphy, Humpheries, Evans, McRoberts
I think its safe to say that there's more talent available at the PF position. Also, since LA can play center, you can potentially get a starter quality, Landry type player to play ~30min/g in a three man frontcourt rotation with our starting center (hopefully Oden). I think you can add more talent if you have Landry for 30min/g than, say, Faried and Kwame Brown for 15 min each. That possibility is enticing.
So you decide to fill the backup PF via FA and draft the best PG prospect with your number one, even if it is a reach. This decision is most certainly debatable but I think its unfair to say it lacks direction at this point in time.
2) Last question mark:
Available FA Cs: Gasol, Chandler, Pryzbilla, Dalembert, Hawes, Fesenko, Foster, Mohammed, Brown
In sum: so many possibilities we have a very good chance of getting two proven frontcourt guys better than Faried. (Who we end up targeting is a very interesting question and I'd be curious to here peoples' thoughts on this)
Why the new CBA won't hamper our ability to get FAs
Quite simply, these players have to go somewhere and most teams are already over the cap. This means most of these guys will be signed with exceptions (Stern already agreed to the MLE) and I think Portland is an attractive place to come play.
3) This is the toughest to swallow for me cause tonight was in many ways lateral and in no ways lessened our dependence on Roy and Oden. But I don't believe that opportunity existed tonight (the best player moved was Stephen Jackson). So the only thing you can do is make the best move available while keeping enough assets to be ready in the future.
Camby's contract, Batum, a starter at any position (besides PF) and future draft picks for an elite player at the same position is a pretty good offer and means we have a shot at almost any elite player that becomes available.
Conclusion: While its possible that tonight was a mistake its also possible this is the first step in a very productive and directional off season. We won't be able to truly judge until the end. Until then, I think the correct reaction is to be excited for Raymond Felton, to pay respect to Dre, to withhold judgement on the Smith v. Faried question and to consider tonight a tentative success. And to continue hoping for Roy and Oden to get healthy or an elite player to become available (please please pleeeeaaaassse!!!!!).
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I feel the same way about the FAs
And the blazers plan. I belive u hit it on the nose with ur explanation.
Felton might not be a sexy pick up but if you think about it, this would be the best team he has ever been on and he averaged 8 Asst last season. I think he could average about 10 this next. He has an awesome chemistry with wallace already. I think this was also a move to keep Wallace accompany as well.
I cnt wait for FA, I think there will be a move to try and sign nene this off season…. But at way cost….? I have a feeling it will cost the blazers a sign as trade for camby.
by Hoi on Jun 24, 2011 5:42 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
We need depth in the post as you have said
(Who we end up targeting is a very interesting question and I’d be curious to here peoples’ thoughts on this)
The list is actually much smaller, here is my best guess at who we actually might have a shot at landing/players worth pursuing.
Available FA PFs:
Landry(If he takes the MLE he will probably play for hometown Milwuakee),
Hayes(If he takes the MLE, why come to Portland? Not that I wouldn’t welcome him, dude is a scrapper),
Martin(I really like Kenyon Martin as a fit for us),
Davis(Big baby bleh),
Turiaf(You think NYK will part with their one post defender?),
Murphy(Bleh. Not worth it, too old, can’t defend),
Humpheries(Can’t afford him, should command more then the MLE from NJN),
Evans(Solid fit if we had managed to get a PF prospect in the draft to eventually take over for him as the backup PF…But we didn’t),
McRoberts(bleh)
Available FA Cs:
Gasol(Most likely resigns with Dallas, but this would be a huge pickup)
Chandler,
Pryzbilla,(If he would take the BAE or veteran minimum & show he is healthy in training camp we could really use him)
Dalembert,
Hawes(guessing Philly keeps him)
Fesenko(bleh)
Foster(bleh see Murphy)
Mohammed(Old, increasingly less productive pivotman but better then any other C on our roster except Camby & Oden*.)
Brown(Jordan is probably going to try to get him to show Biyombo how to avoid being a massive bust. LOL… “Do everything I didn’t do”).
The list looks pretty bleak now. Sign Kenyon Martin then go out & trade for a prospect. Kevin Seraphin in Washington has an NBA ready body, will be playing with Batum yearly on the french national team & plays some good defense. Could end up playing minutes at center because of how thick he is.
Get it done... Paul.
I think you are too quick to dismiss ...
Davis: I think Big Baby would be an EXCELLENT third or fourth big man, and could likely be had for the MLE. You are right that PDX might not be his only suitor, but I would think we would have a chance
Humphries: ditto
Hayes: ditto
Evans: He’s a stopgap solution as someone to come off the bench and rebound. He’s basically Faried’s ceiling, except we don’t have to wait for him. We can’t have youth at all 12 positions, and why not have a veteran backup with no desire to start behind a guy like LMA?
Murphy/Foster: again, solid role players to come in and play backup PF/C.
I guess what I’m saying is that I’d rather have a guy who knows his role to be the 9th or 10th man and backup PF/C on this team, as opposed to a young guy who still needs to find his way in the NBA.
Davis is leaving Boston because he want freedom to play 'his' game
1) Does not sound like a team-first moment.
2) Does want to be a starter and even more unlikely to pick Portland than Boston.
i notice you think foster cant defend, why
FIRE BUCHANAN!!
by thomasikehara on Jun 24, 2011 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions
One name we may already plan to sign for the minumum is Pendergraph
Can he become a backup 4/5? He has the athleticism and body for it. Hoping he has also been observing this past year as he rehabs. He is no longer a rookie.
Even if we don't resign him
I hope he’s able to fully recover and come back to basketball. I felt so bad for that kid.
by Eric Loftin on Jun 25, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Evans(Solid fit if we had managed to get a PF prospect in the draft to eventually take over for him as the backup PF…But we didn’t)
Don’t forget about Freeland. I fully expect him to come over in the next 2-3 years and take over that backup position. And depending on his defensive chops, maybe even backup C.
I think we should also be realistic in how good we expect Faried to be next year. Some of the guys you labled bleh (which I agree with for the most part) would still be better than Faried next year. Especially considering our bench’s inability to score last year.
I hadn’t thought of it before, but does pick Smith instead of Faried say anything about how the Blazers feel about Freeland?
Nolan Smith pick?
it’s not as simple as plugging in gaps. you have to consider the quality of our starters and back-ups and how an imbalance in our roster will affect our players. in particular, Aldridge and Wallace.
last year, we didn’t have a reliable back-up PG. to compensate, we experimented with Armon, Patty, Rudy, Roy, Matthews at the back-up spot. to compensate for not having a back-up PF, we gave Aldridge more minutes. so, it’s not exactly the same.
even if a back-up PG was the more pressing need, i’m not convinced that drafting a combo-guard that could have been picked up in the 2nd round was the best choice.
by DefenderOfPants on Jun 24, 2011 12:02 PM PDT reply actions
how do you know Smith would be available in the second round?
Iman Shumpert went 17. We’re just basing that idea on what we heard, but that’s not necessarily the case.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jun 24, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
my point is
we should not have drafted a combo-guard with our pick. would should have addressed our lack of bigs.
honestly, i don’t even know if i’d make a trade to get him in the mid-20s, late-20s, 2nd round, whatever. and if we must draft a PG, i would have taken Reggie Jackson over Nolan Smith.
by DefenderOfPants on Jun 24, 2011 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I understand people being upset with the Nolan pick
but I do think he is more of a PG at the NBA level than a combo guard
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
That would be an unfortunate assumption
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
nope
it will be the correct assumption
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
No it wouldnt
Most people I’ve read are not convinced he’s a PG. His AST/TO ratio is definitely not PG material. If he makes one in the NBA, it will because he changed his game and worked hard at it. As it stands, Smith is not a PG
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
You are not recognizing the circumstances under which he played at Duke
he was a great PG for them on many occassions, he was also their most reliable scorer this season particularly following the injury to Irving. He was asked to be a scorer. He did his job well. I will bet you he is a PG at the NBA level, I keep saying it but think about Chalmers’ style.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Agreed, the correct assumption.
Nolan Smith ran the point for Duke all year long. Seems to be the kind of guy to do what is asked of him, and very well. Blazers will ask him to be a point guard, Smith will be a point guard.
Combo guard?
He averaged 5 assists, played the point in Irving’s which Duke played better as a team in that stretch imo, and was drafted to play the point. His change of direction, handles, and orginization of a team with ball in hand are all top shelf traits of his. Combo guard will be a term no longer utilized for Smith during next season. The term steal will be used instead.
by gunballs on Jun 24, 2011 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
I feel like we did well with Felton
I had been hoping to get Tony Parker but I knew it was a long shot. Still I curse RJ for being the wedge between us a TP!
In the end I came to the conclusion that Felton, is way younger and has put very similar numbers to Dre in almost every category. The 1 we needed most, was 3pt shooting, which he does way better than Andre. Andre is a savvy veteran and his knowledge of our players was only getting better, so theres no doubt he will be sorely missed. But we all knew he had to go at some point. Just like Rudy, he had to go at some point. We still have free agency to land a pf/c and to fill any gaps. For some reason, I dont think we will be playing with this roster come opening day. I still think there are a few more trades or moves or roster tweaks coming. In the end, I feel like we did well. We have what is very possibly our PGotF.
by cavejunctionblazer on Jun 24, 2011 12:39 PM PDT reply actions
i meant to say
between us (AND) TP
by cavejunctionblazer on Jun 24, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I feel like Dalembert
Would be a great option for us. Solid defender, rebounder, and shot-blocker. Class act. And here’s the clincher for us: the last time he played fewer than 80 games in a season was 05-06. Allow the Kings to spend some FA money, then sign-and-trade for Camby.
There does not seem to be any unifying vision or plan that I can see with this team.
It feels more like seat of the pants flying at Paul Allen’s whim. I like Nolan Smith, I think he’ll eventually become the Terry Porter type PG for a new generation, but he really wasn’t a necessity. A true rebounding back up PF like Faried was. You guys just watch what Denver does to us next year. They were an intimidating team already, but now with Andre, Faried and Jordan Hamilton, they will be like a gang of thugs taking the Blazer’s lunch money in some back alley. Not just Denver, but even Utah had a pretty good haul. And I really like what San Antonio did getting Kawhi Leonard and Cory Joseph. People pan on them for the Joseph pick, but SA has always gotten good value out of low picks, and I have watched Joseph play, he is a ferocious defender and will end up being an upgrade over George Hill on their roster. As for Diebler, man, what to say? Who’s that guy going to guard? Watching him play, he didn’t play D, he didn’t rebound, he didn’t pass or create. All he did was stand at the 3pt line and wait for a pass. I guess he is perfect playing with B-Roy, but how about being able to play with anyone else? If they were going to get anyone from Ohio State, it should have been David Lighty, who is a superior defender and all around player.
You better hope we get some big bodies via FA, because otherwise the team is just paperthin on the front court. We are one injury away from having to START Chris Johnson or Babbitt for chrissakes.
I'm perfectly happy getting Felton if he re-signs
Felton doesn’t need to be All-World to make the Blazers better3s aside, Dre did a fine job; if Felton matches that and does better from the 3, WIN. I do think we gave up too much (assuming not drafting Faried was a condition), but I’ll get over that.
My biggest concern: We NEED to get the center position right, and without including LMA in the equation. I don’t care that he can play it; I can play C. At best, he should be the emergency C. Maybe I’m overly-sensitive to the injury issue in Portland, but when the “future of the franchise” has missed 3/4 of his pro career, and the “face of the team” has no knees, maybe I’m not.
Camby has one year left, contractually and literally. Like Dre, I love me some Marcus, but if a permanent replacement can be found, it needs doing. Nothing fancy required: solid D, hit the boards like they owe you money. Offensive skills preferred but not necessary.
GO is supposedly out til mid-seasonish, so a back-up is needed. I’m no expert, but I seem to recall Chris Johnson gave a damn when he was on the court. Give him one year guaranteed, he’ll be your best friend.
GO is out. Period.
No one in the Blazers organization is banking on much from him.
This is my signature. Do you like it?
you visit the blazer org. often to ask their opinions
Felton will make a lot of people have selective memory on their reaction to draft night
Trade for Iggy
by thomasikehara on Jun 25, 2011 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
my main concern
is that the PG position is harder to learn than an NBA big spot. So we might’ve drafted to fill the gaps in the post and used free agency to fill the gap in the backcourt
So we’re left with
Felton Smith Johnson
Matthews Williams Diebler
Wallace Batum Babbitt
Aldridge
Camby Oden Johnson
As I have maintained, Roy and Mills are gone.
That is an incredibly young backcourt.
Landry, Turiaf, or Hayes could fill PF gaps… then we are still left with the rotation gaps. Aldridge should not be forced to the pivot. I do not believe Oden will be with us next season. He’ll either be traded, leave in FA, or on the bench with an injury.
The Roy savings could nab us a second big, if the hard cap does not eliminate said savings. It’s murky water but I believe they have a trade target for C. It would make no sense otherwise.
Bigs solution
We gotta get Dalembert (defence to compliment LMA’s offence). Then sign Cunningham who is a great 3rd string 4. Not a bad 2nd string 4 either if Oden goes down and Camby has to play 5. If Oden can play a few minutes for a few games, we’d have the following…
1st unit: Dalembert/LMA/Wallace/We$/Felton
2nd unit: Oden/Camby/Batum/Roy/Smith.
Reserves: C. Johnson/Cunningham/Babbitt/E. Williams/A. Johnson
That’s be just fine.
Don't forget Nate McMillan coached under Coach K on the US olympic team
Coach K schooled Nolan Smith the right way. And he had confidence in him. That in itself says a lot.
And especially to Nate it said a lot. Nolan played under Coach K and succeeded. Bottom line for Nate.
This is my signature. Do you like it?
And...
Nolan Smith played against the US olympic team, and Nate coached against him in those scrimmages. I think the kid is going to do well, and I don’t think there’s any doubt he’ll be a PG. He’s not Bayless.
by Eric Loftin on Jun 25, 2011 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
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