Miller vs Felton in 2010-2011

There was a lot of movement in the trade today, but the real meat and potatoes was Andre Miller for Raymond Felton.

It seems pretty clear to me that it's a downgrade for next year, but Miller is 35 and Felton is only 26.  My "things I kinda sorta remember hearing on SportsCenter" recollection is that Felton is a solid PG, certainly good enough to be a starter on a contender... as long as he's not one of your best couple players.  I don't like trusting a hazy memory though, so lets see how he compares to both Miller and other guards in the league.  I'm a big fan of advanced stats, so that's what I'm going to use for most of the comparisons.

NOTE: All of the rankings are in comparison to all guards (both PG and SG) that played at least 20 minutes per game... because that's how basketball reference filters it.

Games Played: (including this because Miller was so reliable)

Felton - 75

Miller - 81

-- 75 games played is the lowest of Felton's six year career.  He's not the iron man Miller is (few are), but he's definitely not injury prone either.

Assists (Assist%, Turnover%):

Felton - 35.8% (12th of 96), 16.6% (78th of 96)

Miller - 35.7% (13th of 96), 16.8% (82nd of 96)

-- I'll get the big PG related stats out of the way first... and it's a tie!  This kinda surprises me because I thought Miller would win this one.  Both are "good but not great", consider that the "of 96" above includes SGs.  Also, for those that don't look at stats that much, don't read too much in to the turnover rankings.  The best PGs always have the highest turnover% simply because they have the ball so much.  Steve Nash is regularly among the league leaders.  It's only useful when viewed as a comparison to assist%.

Shooting (FG%, 3P%, FT%, TS%):

Felton - 42.5% (61st of 96), 35.3% (50th of 96), 80.5% (62nd of 96), 52.4% (62nd of 96)

Miller - 46.0% (17th of 96), 10.8% (95th of 96), 85.3% (28th of 96), 52.9% (57th of 96)

-- It will be nice to have a starting PG that can hit a three again, but we're losing our FT closer, and 42.5% overall FG% is worrisome.  TS% suggests that overall it's a wash (and that both are below average).  It will be interesting to see how this change works out in games.

Rebounding (Offensive RB%, Defensive RB%, Total RB%):

Felton - 2.0% (50th of 96), 9.2% (63rd of 96), 5.6% (60th of 96)

Miller - 4.3% (6th of 96), 9.9% (46th of 96), 7.0% (24th of 96)

-- This is clearly a big win for Miller.  Miller is one of the best rebounding PGs in the NBA.  Felton is about average for a PG.

Other (Usage%, Steal%, Def Rating, Win Share/48):

Felton - 21.6% (43rd of 96), 2.3% (19th of 96), 111 (T50th of 96), .094 (45th of 96)

Miller - 20.6% (51st of 96), 2.3% (20th of 96), 108 (T30th of 96), .127 (25th of 96)

--Felton should be used to having the ball about as often as Miller did for us, which will hopefully minimize new guy drama.  The defensive ratings should be taken with a huge grain of salt, as the team they play on has a big influence on these and Felton played for the Knicks for 54 games last season.  His career D rating is 109 and has been as low as 103.  Miller's has been consistently around 107/108.  All that can be said for sure is that neither is substantially better at D than the other.  The WS/48 number is a good "everything but defense" overall rating.  The league average is .100 (i.e half a win per game divided by 5 players).  The difference in those two is mainly due to Miller's rebounding.

Intangibles/Future Prospect:

-- While I've never had the impression that Miller is a vocal leader in the same way Marcus Camby and Juwan Howard have been, he's had very steady play on the court.  Ever since Roy went out, he's been the only one on the team that comes through in big moments with consistency (e.g. hitting shots to stop another team's run).  I haven't watched Felton play much, but his limited playoff stats are pretty bad (for what it's worth, Miller has been hit and miss in the playoffs himself).  Felton's biggest appeal for us is that he's still young (he's 26, Miller is 35).  He had slow improvement in his first four years with a pretty big jump in his fifth.  He was able to mostly maintain that jump last year (his sixth season) despite playing for two new teams.

My Take:

-- Overall, I like this move.  Felton isn't elite at anything, but he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses either.  The stats suggest that he's a solid distributor, and he can hit threes.  Miller will be better next year and maybe for a couple years after that, but we had to do something at the position before Miller broke down.

My only major concern is losing Miller's steady play.  If Felton isn't up to it, hopefully LMA or Mathews (or Batum?) can step in to that role.