Undisputable fact: there would have been no playoffs for Portland the last 2 years without Miller starting at PG.

Undisputable fact: We would have won just as many playoff series had we not been in the playoffs at all.

(But perhaps you think rolling the dice in the lottery would have been a better outcome than winning 4 playoff games, from a long-term perspective?)

Not just to get into the lottery this year (which I think we would have traded away anyway). What I said prior to the trade deadline this year is that had Cho been able to trade Miller for something of value we would have won in 2 ways. (I tend to believe the rumors that was what Cho tried to do but just couldn’t fine a good enough deal.) We would have got something for Miller (it would have had to be a younger veteran player or a future 2012 lottery pick for me to make a Miller deal then) and then our own pick this year would have been a lottery pick that we could be dealing now with Batum or Wallace for a proven veteran or a high pick this year if we were convinced there is a starter in the draft (that we could reach) this year.

As I said in Feb we weren’t going to win a playoff series with this years team anyway. So it was time to prepare for Oden’s real return in the 2012-13 season. Oden won’t be back in really productive shape next year. The next window with Oden opens in 2012-13. I expect Paul Allen to throw the cash box at Oden after the lockout ends and sign him to a 4-yr deal (hopefully with a 5th year team option). Paul is going to realize (I expect he already has – but perhaps Cho didn’t agree) that this team has no chance to contend in the next 2-3 years without Oden, and he will spend what it takes to try to keep him. The question is – does Oden want to come back to PDX? If not, he may just sign the QO and leave next summer no matter how much Paul offers now. But I’m hoping his agent will tell him to take a big guaranteed contract from Allen after the lockout based on his injury history.

It’s may still be possible to work everything out so that last year becomes simply a one year delay in last summer’s path to becoming a contender again. We never thought last summer that we would be a contender last year, but we thought we would be preparing the ground to become a contender this year. Well, that didn’t happen. But now we need to do the right things to prepare next year for becoming that contender in 2012-13.

The key of course is Oden, as I discussed above. We MUST re-sign him to a long term contract at all cost. I think Paul will get that, and based on Paul’s understanding of his own mortality and desire to still win a Blazer championship, I expect Paul to pay whatever is necessary. The issue is whether Oden wants out of PDX so badly he will prefer to sign the QO and get out of here. If so, we will be looking at a complete blow-it-up rebuilding effort starting next summer.

BUT if he can re-sign Oden then I believe we can prepare now and next season for a contending run in 2012-13. Next season would be to bring Oden back starting in Jan or Feb and gradually rebuild his conditioning and work on his NBA skills (which he never got developed) for the rest of the year. In the process we move out Miller and find the point guard we need for the following 3-4 years. Now is the perfect time to move Miller while his contract is still un-guaranteed for next year. We should try to trade him now with Batum, Wallace, or Matthews to get a PG. Then move one of the remaining two of them for the SF/SG shooter that we failed to get last summer.

It rather amazing but we went into last summer needing a PG and a shooter. We didn’t get either one and we still need a PG and shooter. We went into last summer thinking Oden would be back, but not up to full speed for most of the year. Now we think Oden will be back next year, and again not up to full speed next year. The things that have really changed is that Roy is no longer what he was (and that is a very big thing) but LMA is much closer to what we need at PF than most people thought possible a year ago. I’m not say that LMA totally balances the loss of Roy’s game, but it is something to build off of, especially if he can make another jump this year. But we did accomplish something since the start of last summer. We now have Matthews (who has some trade value) and we have Wallace (thank you Rich Cho or Larry Miller or whoever). That gives us some trading chips we didn’t have last summer.

So it’s time now (and after the lockout) to make the moves we wanted to make last summer. Replace Matthews with a consistent outside shooter and move Miller (with Batum or Wallace) for a younger PG we can build with over the next 3-4 years. And of course get Oden re-signed to a long term deal. That’s the prescription for re-building our hopes of becoming a contender without doing a complete rebuild of the team. This would be my plan and what I have been saying since last Feb.

I’d prefer to add talent to the roster, not rob Peter to pay Paul

Crash isn’t going to last forever, he and Batum can def be on the floor at the same time