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2010-11 Portland Trail Blazers Roster Rundown: Patrick Mills

Nearing the end of our look at the 2010-11 Portland Trail Blazers roster we come to Portland's reserve point guard,  Patty Mills.  An afterthought as the season began, Mills fought his way onto the roster and then earned rotation minutes with his jumper, some ball-handling, and his great attitude.  Here's the statistical rundown.  Note that comparison to Mills' 2009-10 numbers should be held lightly considering the paucity of minutes.  He played 38 minutes the entire season and attempted four three-pointers, for instance.  Therefore numbers will range wildly.  Still, the chart does show how far he's come in the last year.  Witness:

 

10-11

09-10

Change

Games

64

10

+54

Minutes

783

38

+745

MPG

12.2

3.8

+8.4

FG%

41.2%

41.7%

-0.5%

3PT%

35.3%

50.0%

-14.7%

FT%

76.6%

57.1%

+19.5%

FGA/36

15.1

22.7

-7.6

3PTA/36

6.1

3.8

+2.3

FTA/36

2.2

6.6

-4.4

TRB/36

2.3

1.9

+0.4

STL/36

1.2

0.0

+1.2

AST/36

5.0

4.7

+0.3

TO/36

2.9

3.8

-0.9

AST/TO Ratio

1.76

1.25

+0.51

USG%

24.5%

38.9%

-14.4%

ORTG

101

95

+6

DRTG

111

114

-3

PER

13.0

11.9

+1.1

TShooting%

50.6%

48.0%

+2.6%

NETPTS/100*

-11.9

-24.7

+12.8

PPG

5.5

2.6

+2.9

PPG/36

16.2

24.6

-8.4

Click through for analysis of the numbers, a discussion of Patty's role this year, and a look at his potential prospects in the future.

Star-divide

When a guy's role gets bumped up the natural question is how he handled it.  Comparing 38 minutes to 783 is going to lead to aberrations but even on their own terms Mills' 2010-11 shooting numbers are decent:  41% overall, 35% from distance, 76+ from the free throw line, 50.6% True Shooting.  They look even better when you consider that over 40% of his attempts came from beyond the arc.  His assist and turnover numbers weren't bad either.   As an offensive guy off the bench meant to generate points, spread the floor, and hold the fort with his point guard play Mills filled his role.  He didn't set the world on fire but he didn't let the house burn down either.  Anecdotally speaking he was one of the few guys who could generate consistent offense from self and team when Andre Miller sat...a point to his credit.

The problem with Mills' numbers aren't that they're bad, it's just that there's nothing particularly to recommend them, particularly if you're looking at a point guard.  Figure this:  2010-11 was a year when Andre Miller gave up his stats for the good of the team, playing more of a set-up point guard role than ever.  Even in Miller's low statistical ebb, Mills doesn't best him in any major category outside of that three-point percentage, not even coming close in most areas.  Assists are lower, turnovers higher.  Mills attempts more shots per 36 and shoots a far lower percentage.  That 24.5% Usage Percentage sticks out for a point guard.  That's a lot of possessions to use for a guy who's supposed to be in a support role by talent and position both.  One could argue that Mills' role was more of an instant offense gunner but then what's with the 101 offensive rating and the so-so point per minute numbers?  The story isn't too much better defensively, with a 111 defensive rating not turning the tide.  Mills is not a great defender to the eye either.

Portland's offense lost 8.4 points per 100 possessions when Mills played versus when he sat this year.  Portland's defense gave up 3.5 more points when he played as well.  Some of that--maybe a large portion--can be tagged on Portland's weak bench overall.  It's not like Mills was playing with Jordan and Russell out there.  But other Portland bench players fared better.  Even being charitable you have to say that Mills didn't buck the trend.  Being uncharitable you could say he contributed to that weakness.  It's no accident than when Portland's rotation tightened towards the end of the season Mills was among the first players to sit.

Nevertheless Patty Mills remains a hard-working, hard-cheering, emotional success story.  He was an emotional leader, consistently showing energy--even if only through waving a towel--on a team that often loses its fire.  He is the kind of guy who will be first to do whatever is asked, whether it's stroke a three or pick a teammate up off the floor.  It's hard to part with that kind of enthusiasm.  Small wonder Mills is an instant fan favorite.

Even so the Blazers will have no qualms about looking for an upgrade this summer.  Mills is exactly the type of player teams appreciate but don't hold onto.  Not that the Blazers would mind having Patty back, but playing him in the regular rotation isn't going to be their preferred option.   If he does return he can consider this year's stats a baseline from which to improve.  He either needs to up the passes and limit the shots or hit more of the shots he does take and threaten point-per-minute status.  One or the other will be necessary as it's not likely his defense will improve.  He either needs a wild assist total or a 40% three-point shooting clip to cement his move onto Positive Street instead of hanging out on Didn't Kill Us Lane.  Solid emotion is great, but the play has to back it up.

Season Grade:  C+  (The plus is for the emotional support.)

Stock Market Recommendation:  Sell  (Not a safe long-term investment.)

Share your thoughts on Mills below.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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first

do we get a separate review for Pat Stacks?

by extraneous solutions on May 22, 2011 10:34 PM PDT reply actions  

The beard in that photo is great

He’s like Greg Oden’s Mini-Me.

The whole stock-analysis gimmick is terrific, a good way to frame an otherwise depressing roster overview (there’s not much that’s going to change.) Good work!

by twinsbrewer on May 22, 2011 10:35 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

If Patty’s still in the rotation next year, something is wrong.

long live the jd.

by jksnake99 on May 22, 2011 11:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, great guy but . . .

We really need to improve our whole PG situation. Need a really good young pg to either start or take over for Miller in another year. Need better back ups too. Think I might like Armon Johnson a little better myself. He is a great guy though, and wouldn’t mind if he was 3rd pg. He might be better off though in Europe. He’d get more time.

by desperationshot on May 22, 2011 11:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Patty is an awesome dude

but the roster spot could definetly be better used. It would be nice if the blazers could find a way to get him a nice job within the organization, just not as a player.

" Yeah, this is pretty much me, every day. Staring at butt holes and getting my buzz on. "

by blazethenugs on May 22, 2011 11:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Keep Patty

I think he’ll get better every year. There’s no reason he can’t improve his defense (look at Rudy for example) and should have no problem improving his shooting. His ball handling is good and passing isn’t bad. As a long-term project I think we could do worse.

by jamon51 on May 22, 2011 11:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Intangibles

If it were up to me, I’d be reluctant to give up on Patty. So much of what sets the winners apart from the also-rans in this game is mental, and he appears to have the kind of attitude it takes to prevail. The fact that he’s even here shows that – the reasonable thing to do would have been to give up and go home.

His size is a disadvantage; but he has speed, ball-handling skills and shooting range to compensate. You get the feeling that he’s the kind of guy who’ll put in the time and make the effort, that he’ll figure out how to maximize his strengths and overcome his weaknesses.

Maybe he’ll need to go burn up the D league for a while, but I really think Patty has a future in the NBA. Whether that future is with the Trail Blazers or not is a good question.

by greenknight on May 23, 2011 1:03 AM PDT reply actions  

everybody is nuts for crawford

we have a crawford already his name is patty… well poor mans crawford anyway

by extraneous solutions on May 23, 2011 1:30 AM PDT reply actions  

we have a crawford already his name is patty… well poor mans crawford anyway

we have a crawford already his name is patty… well destitutes mans crawford anyway

FIFY

Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB

by zeusmith on May 23, 2011 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

yep

that’s like calling hobbled Brandon Roy a poor man’s Jordan

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on May 23, 2011 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

I wouls say:

Giving to how he wouldn’t have been on the roster if Jeff Pendergraph hadn’t got hurt. He wouldn’t be have been in the rotation if Armon had done his job, plus he was the fifteenth player on the roster, He was bumped up because of injury and lack of efficiency of Armon; I can’t down grade him for that. He stepped up when asked and he played OK in the minutes he played.

In fact Nate played BRoy at PG only to give BRoy and Rudy time. If comparing I would have said that Patty and BRoy was a better pair then Rudy and BRoy, but Patty and Rudy was a better fit then Patty and BRoy. Either way I think he can shoot, I think he will get better on both offense and defense, therefore as a fifteenth spot on the roster I would say keep him until we find out what Williams brings.

hg

by BBK on May 23, 2011 5:33 AM PDT reply actions  

The question is, is his output this year his ceiling (i hate that word)

because if it is well then welcome to the latest journeyman, but as greenknight said, he does have that intangible quality of never say die, for his entire time at the Blazers he has done more than anyone could ask of him, and more than anyone thought possible. He is a square peg in a round hole though. I still cant work out if he is a fit for the blazers, and It would not surprise me if he was moved on, but that being said, it would not surprise me if he ended up at another club and we will look back going, maybe we should have held onto him for one more year.

Who knows.

Either way, I enjoyed watching him this season if only for the torching he gave Aaron Brooks

by benfti on May 23, 2011 6:14 AM PDT reply actions  

50/50

I’m not gonna lie I’m a big patty fan, so I am slightly bias
I do believe he will get better and can become a good player in this league
However it depends on how Portland aims for next year, if genuinely believe the can win the title next year then patty probaly isn’t going to be on team, were as if they are building for a few years down the track then there is no reason why patty can’t be there Barea

by Ronny M on May 23, 2011 6:54 AM PDT reply actions  

I totally agree with the Barea comparison.

In fact the second season numbers for these two players are very close.

Barea: 4.3 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and .8 turnovers.
Mills: 5.5 points, .8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1 turnover.

Who's that tromping across my bedge?

by Troll Blazer on May 23, 2011 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

If that's who Patty is going to be

then I’m all for it. It seems no one can guard Barea, and he has a knack for sticking his nose in the middle of every game.

The thing I like about Patty is that he is probably the quickest guy on the roster. Whether that translates to NBA success is another issue.

My biggest concern about him is his defense. I think either Dave or Ben in a game recap described Patty as instant offense … at both ends of the court. The numbers sort of bear that out, although it’s hard to tell if that is Patty or a reflection of the rest of the Blazers bench.

by hercher on May 23, 2011 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree that Patty can be an asset if we can use him,

depending on other PG adjustments. He does handle the bench ‘psychology’ very well.
I also agree that we need to make a move for PGOF, possibly consolidating 2 or 3 spots.
Put 3 PGs is minimum.

Dump Nate

by Berkeley on May 23, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

we need the spot

Portland needs to keep that roster spot open. I like patty!!! But I also want to WIN and I don’t think patty is part of that winning team. we need liget nba players not part time players (somebody that comes off the bench and put up 15 and 6 with two or three rebounds and ZERO turnovers every night)

by billyjoejack on May 23, 2011 8:06 AM PDT reply actions  

a guy that gets 15, 6 and no turnovers

would win the 6th man award

i would be fine with 10 points, 4 or 5 assists and 1 or 2 turnovers

Fire Nate; hire Rick Adelman
(time and money cures all wounds)
trade for Iggy
goal for next year: go year without using hardship exemption

by thomasikehara on May 23, 2011 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

This seasons 6th man, Lamar Odom, averaged 14 pts and 3 assists with 2 turnovers per game. I would guess that it was the 9 rebound average that got him the 6th man.

I seriously doubt that any player in the history of the NBA has ever averaged 0 turnovers while playing significant minutes (at least during the shot-clock era).

Who's that tromping across my bedge?

by Troll Blazer on May 23, 2011 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

those numbers you want our backup to have

are as good as miller’s

Fire Nate; hire Rick Adelman
(time and money cures all wounds)
trade for Iggy
goal for next year: go year without using hardship exemption

by thomasikehara on May 23, 2011 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

We have taken a decent look at Patty

I think he has more to offer us.
He is not a quitter. He has all of the needed skills of a pro baller. He can reach that delicate balance of good (pleasant) attitude and serious game-face all at the same time. He is a fantastic teammate.

The guy I am really intrigued about is Elliot Williams. Is he going to be a taller, even younger and quicker Patty who is able to drive and dunk? If he is then both Patty and Armon should be on the trade block.

We could do A LOT worse than Patty if all else fails.

we can still win........

by RastaMonsta on May 23, 2011 9:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Williams was practicing and working out with the team toward the end of the '11 season.

He should be close to good-to-go whenever the lockout is over…

…shouldn’t he?

we can still win........

by RastaMonsta on May 23, 2011 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, but what he does in practice and what he does in games

could be two different things.

Don’t get me wrong — I’m excited to see him play. I just don’t like to get my hopes up.

by hercher on May 23, 2011 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hey Dave

Where’s the statistical breakdown on Fabricio Oberto’s season?

by thepmart on May 23, 2011 9:30 AM PDT via mobile reply actions   2 recs

The defense got percipitously

worse when Mills came in for Miller, except for the pressure he exerted on the ball from the midcourt to the three point line. Once the opposition was in their halfcourt set, Mills became a major liability on defense. He’s just not strong enough to deter any driver from the hoops, and got destroyed on high screens (the ones Miller does a good job fighting through). Mills is also undersized so bigger guards shoot over him and doesnt have great lateral quickness (excellent straight-line speed though).

I agree Dave: Mills has to up his Ast% drastically or start hitting 3’s at 40% consistency to see the floor much. Just look how Aaron Brooks became a near All-Star to part time player within a 2 year span after his statistics dropped modestly; of course the reason for that is he became a liability on the court if he wasn’t filling the hoop. Mills is similar to Brooks in that respect, although not as good.

Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB

by zeusmith on May 23, 2011 10:20 AM PDT reply actions  

I love Patty

but our bench was one of the worst in the league. It was constantly over-matched and blew more leads than a bad Whitesnake cover band. Although his 3 point % was good (for Blazer standards—ouch), he didn’t make anyone else better and looked, to my eyes, like a much smaller version of J Bay. Big tenacity—small finishing skills. With Babbitt and Williams’ spots guaranteed (nice work, KP—again…), his roster spot will be needed to find a better PG experiment or a backup big. We’ll miss you, Patty. Thanks for everything you gave us to cheer about.

wha??

by Hipster Olympic Team! on May 23, 2011 12:15 PM PDT reply actions  

What?

I don’t get it… Mills was basically a rookie guard who broke into the rotation, made positive contributions and put up reasonable numbers.

Blazers should be thrilled that a rookie showed he could contribute and that at his age will only get better over the next few years.

If a first round drafted PG put up these numbers you would be singing their praises and looking forward to their next season.

by Marriard on May 24, 2011 9:18 AM PDT reply actions  

To further on this, it is interesting, I think he is actually judged unfairly based on misconceptions

1. People seem to look at Patty as this experienced Euro player for some reason, dont know why, he is not from Europe for a start.
2. People seemed to think he is more experienced than he actually is. He came to the NBA after his S/M year of which he sat over half the season with a broken hand. So we effectively added him in his Junior Year whilst getting him in the middle of his sophomore experience.
3. As we know he sat our the majority of his rookie season all bar 10 games of which he saw less than 3 minutes per game.

The reality is, due to only a few technical points, Patty Mills was a rookie, and one we picked up very late in the draft and quite literally expected nothing from, yet above we see a collection of numbers that nearly every other rookie point guard minus John Wall and Nick Collision would happily take in their debut year, and use them as a basis to improve on and hopefully launch into a 10 year career in the NBA.

Very unfair to come out and say that he didn’t statistically beat Miller. one of the most experienced players in the NBA to a kid in his NBA infancy.

by benfti on May 26, 2011 4:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Some of the attitudes on Patty baffle me a little...

There was the myth that Armon outplayed Patty in summerleague. Patty’s stats were better and he passed the eye test as being better at both the 1 and 2 guard position. But the jury came out and it was decided Armon was better. Fair enough, he looks like an NBA guard. But Patty quickly proved that his game is simply further along than Armon’s. I don’t think anyone know’s what Armon will be, good luck to the kid, but there’s no way he’s the basketball player Patty is right now. The debate about who is the backup is strange to me. Patty can bring a genuine role to that position; uptempo guard who can provide instant offence, and can spread the floor. Isn’t that exactly what you want from that role?

Secondly, everyone knows the story by now, broken foot first year, somehow got the 15th spot this season, cracked the rotation and become a contributor. He does everything right. Having seen him at St. Mary’s, he’s the kind of PG that benefits from a very high tempo offence which allows him a lot of freedom, like a Nash system. He was a very good passer in college, but took a lot of shots, probably too many. Comes to the blazers, brings the uptempo quality into the system in an inoffensive way, limits his TOs as the season goes on and plays out his deliberately limited role as well as anyone could in that situation. To achieve all that in such precarious opportunities and do it all perfectly, it’s pretty impressive.

I think he has a LOT of work to do on his game to get it up to standard though. He needs to continue to work on his ball handling – a guy that small and quick needs to be a wizard with the ball and get to any place on the floor. He needs to keep working on his one-on-one moves – he still doesn’t have a decent crossover or spin moves, and his finishing needs a ton of work. His midrange pullup game is tight, and his 3 point shot will come along. I think Patty’s the kind of guy that gives more the more minutes he plays, and the more freedom he’s given to play his style, rather than put him in an ‘uptempo system LITE’ of bringing the ball up quickly and then popping down to the short corner. I don’t think he’s the PGOTF, but I do think he would do really well in a developing backup role like Barea. Barea has had to fight for the playing freedoms he now has when he first cracked the Mavs rotation, it’s just fair, Patty’s in the process of doing that now. I think the coaching staff probably like him more than some of the critical fans though.

by thesecret on May 27, 2011 5:14 AM PDT reply actions  

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