Draft Pick #21 < 2.47% Worthy

Being that the Trail Blazers have the number 21 pick in the draft this year, I became curious about the chances of success with this pick. This led me to go back to the last fifteen years of drafts to see which selections were successful. I used my own criteria and judgment to decide which picks turned into a success. It is more of a fan’s perspective as I am not a basketball aficionado. You may wish to look at it yourself as to whom you believe best fits your success model but I don’t think it will be too different from mine. I then extrapolated with a simple percentage way of showing the chance of success.   

 The earlier years of the draft would probably weed out short term success stories and the later drafts may have to add or subtract players based on their staying power. Most players were selected based on their basketball prowess and star power. The second round choices had a lower bar but they are still known players to the average involved fan. Of the selections I made 25 were PGs, 29 were SGs, 21 were SFs, 25 were PFs and 20 were Cs. Some were counted twice as they were combo players. If you remove all the combo PF/Cs you end up with only nine Centers. For the players selected at 21 or after it breaks down like this: PG 7, PF 7, SF 5, SG 2, and C 1. Last years draft is still playing out so it is hard to judge that one at all yet. Could we see Batum or even Roy removed from the list ten years from now? Could we see Greg Oden added to the list? Obviously the earlier drafts are a more reliable indication of success.

I found myself adding a few and subtracting a few based on the stat line. One player I added then subtracted but had to add again. I put down Tyson Chandler as he has some notoriety now but then I thought well he didn’t have that good of a career but then I looked at his stats and they were pretty good. Bonzi Wells was good early on but totally fizzled so he was not included. Glen Davis, Ronnie Turiaf, Kendrick Perkins were removed due to bad stats even thou two of them have rings. Trevor Ariza, Kyle Korver, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Goran Dragic and Quentin Richardson barely qualified. Derek Fisher really doesn’t qualify but he has five rings. Marcus Camby may not be a household name (outside of Portland) and he was never an All-star but he has a career double double. Andre Miller is thirteenth all time career assists leader and rising. Some of these players have played with multiple teams. The most notable draftee to me was Manu Ginobilli who was taken on the 57th pick. Most of the omissions were just plain washouts.

 There ended up to be 98 total picks that were successful over the fifteen years. Of that 85 were first round picks, 13 were second round picks, and 22 were picked at number 21 or past 21. That averages out to 5.66 first round successes per year. It averages 0.86 second round successes and 1.46 number 21 and past successes. Out of an entire draft you’d have a 9.59% chance of success with a first round pick but your chances would be greater with a higher pick. I did not quantify that. For a second round pick your chances would be 1.46%. Since this draft is expected to be a weak draft these percentages are probably lower than these averages. At best with the number 21 pick you would have approximately a 2.47% chance of success (if you choose the actual best available player) at that spot.

 My conclusion is that I will no longer call for the firing the Trail Blazer scouts. I will have little hope that this pick turns out well. I am now more certain but not positive that the three choices from last year will probably wash out. It also looks like we may have been better off not just with a Kevin Durant selection but we could have been third or even lower and taken Al Horford or Joakim Noah. Remember that Kwame Brown was a number one choice as well. Remember also that your chances aren't much better than 10% even with a higher pick. If we really want this team to improve we had better learn how to trade or make good offers to Free Agents. Either that or blow it up and get back in the lottery (good luck! sic).


Here is my list:

(note: ‘A’ stands for All-star)



1st Round

1.  John Wall PG

18. Eric Bledsoe PG  

2nd round 




1st Round

1   Blake Griffin PF    A

3   James Harden SG     

4   Tyreke Evans SG/PG   

7   Stephen Curry PG/SG    

13  Tyler Hansbrough PF

18  Ty Lawson PG       

26   Taj Gibson PF   

2nd round

37  DeJuan Blair PF/C       



1st Round

1 Derrick Rose PG     2xA

3 O.J. Mayo SG/PG         

4 Russell Westbrook PG   A

5 Kevin Love PF/C         A      

6 Danilo Gallinari SF  

7 Eric Gordon G         

10 Brook Lopez C         

25 Nicolas Batum SF  

2nd round

45 Goran Dragic PG/SG        



1st Round

2 Kevin Durant SF/SG   2xA

3 Al Horford C     2xA          

9 Joakim Noah C       

15 Rodney Stuckey PG/SG   

2nd round

31 Carl Landry PF/C        

48 Marc Gasol C       

56 Ramon Sessions PG/SG     



1st Round

1  Andrea Bargnani PF/C       

2  LaMarcus Aldridge PF/C     

6  Brandon Roy SG       3xA   

8  Rudy Gay SF               

21 Rajon Rondo PG    2xA   

2nd round

47 Paul Millsap PF



1st Round

3   Deron Williams PG   2xA

4   Chris Paul PG       4xA

10 Andrew Bynum C

17 Danny Granger SF     A

30 David Lee PF/C        A

2nd round

40  Monta Ellis PG/SG



1st Round

01. Dwight Howard C    5xA  

05. Devin Harris PG/SG    A      

07. Luol Deng  SF           

09. Andre Iguodala SG/SF      

2nd round

43. Trevor Ariza SG/SF     



1st Round

1.  LeBron James SF      7xA

3.  Carmelo Anthony SF    4xA

4.  Chris Bosh PF         6xA

5.  Dwyane Wade SG   7xA    

6.  Chris Kaman C     A  

18. David West PF     2xA

21. Boris Diaw PF/C

2nd round

51. Kyle Korver SG/SF        



1st Round

1. Yao Ming C          8xA

 9. Amare Stoudemire PF/C   6xA

10. Caron Butler SF     2xA

23. Tayshaun Prince SF

2nd round

35. Carlos Boozer PF   2xA

56. Luis Scola PF          



2. Tyson Chandler C

3. Pau Gasol PF/C          4xA

5. Jason Richardson SG/SF  

6. Shane Battier SF      

10. Joe Johnson SG/SF     5xA 

13. Richard Jefferson SF  

19. Zach Randolph PF     A 

25. Gerald Wallace SF     A

28. Tony Parker PG      3xA

2nd round

31. Gilbert Arenas PG/SG   3xA  



1st Round

1. Kenyon Martin PF     A

5. Mike Miller SG

8. Jamal Crawford SG       

16. Hidayet Turkoglu PF

18.Quentin Richardson SG  

2nd round




1st Round

1. Elton Brand PF      2xA

3. Baron Davis PG     2xA

4. Lamar Odom PF       

7. Richard Hamilton SG    3xA

8. Andre Miller PG      

9. Shawn Marion SF        4xA

10. Jason Terry SG       

13. Corey Maggette SF    

16. Ron Artest SF        A

24. Andrei Kirilenko SF     A

2nd round

57. Emmanuel Ginobili SG   2xA



1st Round

2. Mike Bibby PG  

4. Antawn Jamison PF      2xA     

5. Vince Carter SG       8xA

9. Dirk Nowitzki PF   10xA

10. Paul Pierce SG/SF       9xA

2nd round




1st Round

1. Tim Duncan PF/C     13xA

3. Chauncey Billups PG    5xA

9. Tracy McGrady SG/SF     7xA

2nd round




1st Round

1. Allen Iverson PG/SG  11xA

2. Marcus Camby PF/C      

5. Ray Allen SG    10xA      

13. Kobe Bryant SG   13xA   

15. Steve Nash PG    7xA     

17. Jermaine O'Neal PF/C   6xA

24. Derek Fisher PG     

2nd round



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