Dealing with Greg Oden

the headline made me groan.

Not because your take isn’t (won’t be) superb as usual, Dave, but because…good riddance, that’s both the least and most eloquent summation of the topic, and it’s groan-worthy.

I hate this.

Here’s what I don’t get.

If we don’t offer the qualifying offer he immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent right? No one not even us can try to sign him until the new CBA. So essentially we force him to test the free agent market right now, injured and any team that does make an offer, it will have to be a multiyear deal for what, four years minimum? No way any GM is going to offer more than 10 mil unless he is totally crazy. So when Oden gets this offer can he not come to us and say, “Hey these guys are giving me this, what can you do?” Or is this not even a possible scenario?

Or Greg’s gonna take off on us after a year and go win “like 10 championships” somewhere freaking else. Why do I have a horrible feeling we’re going to get screwed in the end?

Making the qualifying offer has not required a player to reject it in the past in order to seek a better deal. Why not wait to see what else is offered? What has changed this year besides the expiration of the CBA which will keep both sides on the sideline until a new CBA is signed?

Can we even do this?

3.Try to entice him to sign a new, longer-term contract as a restricted free agent instead of accepting that qualifying offer, not knowing if he’ll even be able to play but binding the team to him for another “X” number of years.

  There seems to be a lot of vagueness. Larry Miller was essentially asked this on courtside and his answer was “He thought we coud do this but he wasn’t sure”. I thought The Blazer were forced to either offer the qualifier, as defined…1 year for 9 million or NOT offer the qualifier at all…My understanding was The Blazers could NOT redefine what the qualifier is… ( I could be wrong).

  I think we could offer the qualifier, have Oden accept…then TRY to negotiate with him all year long to sign a new contract…but the choice would totally be Odens…

  Honestly I’d like clarification if changing the terms of the qualifying offer is or is NOT possible, but IMO that’s huge as to how much leverage The Blazers have in trying to keep Oden here for more than 1 additional year.

Between that, and the millions the Blazers have already committed to Roy, they stand a good chance of hitching their chances of being competitive to two guys who seemingly stand almost no chance of being worth it. Not only has Oden shown he cannot stay on the court, he hasn’t demonstrated any particular passion to get back on it. People were wondering a couple of years ago about his work ethic. It’s easy to forget that when he’s not even playing, but nothing has happened to make that doubt a thing of the past.

I say, evaluate the heck out of him medically this summer and then, if it seems likely that he can return early next season, sign him to the qualifying offer and take your chances that you can resign him once that expires. My guess is that it won’t be worth it to do that, as sad as that is.

synapses with that one.

because I was getting so many questions on the subjects. If you’re interested, they can be found here, as part of a series of posts on the ABC’s of the CBA:

Q is for Qualifying Offer

R is for Restricted Free Agents

but there have been other quotes from Greg recently indicating that he’s interested in (or at least considering) re-upping with the Blazers. I’m not willing to take the one quote as absolutely indicative that he’s going to leave in the context of quotes such as this:

"Who wouldn’t want to play with those guys?" Oden said of the Blazers.

What he told Marc Spears on April 1

I’m not saying that Oden has decided to re-sign with the Blazers long term. I’m saying that I’m not convinced he has decided NOT to. He thinks he holds the cards – and to a certain extent, he does. That doesn’t mean he’s made up his mind one way or another – it means that he thinks he has a choice. And he does.

but even if it’s a 5 percent chance you have to take it. This teams current ceiling is nowhere near a championship and we’re already in a position where we cannot sign any big free agents. Losing Oden cannot help us, likewise spending money does not crimp our flexibility. If we’re going to acquire someone it will be through a trade at this point, and Oden could potentially be a trade chip. So why not, if PA is willing to spend.

Can I just go to sleep, and wake up to see Oden dunking on a fool?

He’s probably not ver going to be healthy. He is on the opposite end of the physical symmetry spectrum from Dwight Howard, Lamarcus Aldridge. He is probably the least physically symmetrical player in the game.

As much as I’d like the fairy tale to work, if he leaves, we just paid him 40 million $‘s to rehab. If we keep him, we’ll be paying him 80 million to rehab.

All this for a guy who still has not shown the ability to not foul on the court? “Quit slapping down”

I have been on here screaming for years about his physical problems and wishing upon a star that he could get fixed under the Blazers care. I don’t think that is going to happen. That being said, Greg still has a ton to work on as a basketball player and usptairs before I think he could help this franchise win a championship.

Next year and the year after will be close to all getting back into game shape, learning how to play the game and recovering lost athleticism/strength from surgery. Then, if were lucky and it all works out, maybe he finds a way to play at a lighter weight, we get decent years out of him at another 40 mill deep.

Frankly take all of the injury hoopla out of the equation and I am not sure if I want to take the investment on the aptitude for the game he has displayed. Most games I have seen him going back to his college days, he slow reacting, late to his spots, out of place and in foul trouble. If he shows up next year and we gotta spend 6 months teaching him how to not foul, I would never gamble on him helping a team win a championship, NEVER. If he cannot show that, sucker someone else into 40 more million.

It was Canzano who quoted him sounding like an only child. It went against all the other things I’ve heard Oden say.

Citing that quote brings Canzano closer to credibility. Oh wait, that article became about himself 8 lines down. Reality check Canzano: I would flee from you too, and when I did you would probably slant your articles against me as well.

Have to offer a multi-year deal. And here’s why:

1. Talent. Even broken he has talent and THAT is what wins championships. Greg has it and we just have to hope that it comes out.

2. Salary cap. We couldn’t even entice Hedon’t turkey glue as a FA to come here with our cap space and we will never be a prime FA signing choice over LA or NY so cap space is useless. Roy and LMA will be taking up most of the cap anyways, hard or soft, so throwing a few more mil out the door will not be that much of a hinderance. It’s PAs money anyways so he will have the last say in the matter.

We have come to this point where we have to double down and ride this out to the end, good or bad. We have invested too much time and money into him NOT to get some kind of return out of him. We have no other options to get a player of that caliber sans trading away LMA, Roy, and Wallace and tanking to luck out and get another #1 pick.

We have to look at oden as a rookie again that has to prove himself.

Namely that, even granting that the odds of GO getting healthy are low, they’re far better than the odds of the Blazers contending for a championship without him anytime soon. Just as the Celtics threw the dice hoping that unloading most of their young talent in exchange for Garnett & Allen would pay off, so the Blazers need to gamble on GO eventually fulfilling his huge potential. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Having said that, I can’t see re-signing GO if the team truly has no clue why he keeps needing microfracture surgery. It’s stunning to me that, following the latest injury, Jay Jensen et al just threw up their hands and said, “We don’t understand this.”

Assuming that wasn’t some kind of a smoke-screen…If I were Paul Allen I’d have immediately said, “OK, then I’m hiring some new people who at least have a THEORY as to what’s going on!” As the expression goes, “the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results.”

The general gestalt of this whole subject is one of bad juju finally rising above the fog of expectations and hopes and theories into a clear, albeit ugly, picture. Truth be told, at this point I expect nothing out of this situation.

Why not try to parley GO into some assets. Yes, it admits a big mistake….as if there was any doubt about that at this point….but, hey, it gives closure and puts more control in the hands of the Blazers. With a little luck, Roy’s contract will be forgiven and it will be a more or less fresh start with super great pieces….not bad, considering all the crap that has gone down…..or?

—Alan

want to resign with Portland and wear a Blazers jersey?

To me, re-signing him is just as much about preventing him in going to an OKC or LA and succeeding as it is about him having any success here.

I’m hedging my bet that Paul Allen is leaning towards trying to keep him. PA remembers Jermaine O’neal ;).

I’ve been so negative about Oden/Roy’s injuries that I never thought of it this way.

Since the team’s locked into Roy, and his deal pretty much prevents any major moves, why not sign Oden to a deal almost as long as Roy’s? It may be a case of either bank on 10% chance of hope or 100% chance of mediocrity. I think both Oden and Roy are done, and I’d like to imagine that there’s some way to acknowledge that and start over with our healthy players, but there may not be. And, if not, signing GO makes good sense. I don’t think it will pan out, but if Roy’s contract is as much of an albatross as many fear, there isn’t much to lose.

Good stuff to ponder . . .

Suppose this is what happens:

1. We offer the QO.
2. Greg aceepts.
3. Greg has great lockout-shortened season, reminding the league why he was #1.
4. Greg is a UFA at the end of the year.
5. Greg leaves for another team.

Although it ended up playing out differently, how is this different from countless small-market sob stories losing franchiese level players? I mean this is a depressing scenario, but it’s the devil we know. The only real heartbreak there comes from not having a 4-year run with our draftee where we get continually knocked out of the 2nd round and/or conference finals instead of just being knocked out of the first round. Everything else is business as usual per Stern’s Rules.

In the long run, this scenario isn’t exactly great for Greg either. Since this playoff series just cemented our reputation as some of the most dedicated, hardcore fans in the league, what kind of story does the sports press write about a guy who jilted the city that hung tight with him through a half-decade of “bust years”? Greg picks up Ungrateful Heel status at that point. Nobody will miss him. You think Sheed got boos in the RG? Pul-eeze.

Personally, I think one of two things happen. First, either Greg just never gets healthy and effective, making him the next Kwame Brown, and we part ways with some regrets on both sides after next season. Or… he does realize his potential and stays with the team because he’s got good relationships with his teammates, an owner willing to spend money, and the realization that Winning Cures Everything.

is Portland’s list of unforseen “mistakes”.
A couple of which are Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant.
It could be entriely possible that losing Greg gets added to that list of forehead smackers (if he manages to play hard elsewhere), whereas Greg stepping up and killing it for the Blazers manages to erase one (Durant).
It would be preferable to erase one (if he plays well here) or have a very minor forehead smacking (if he stays injured) than to add to a list a very heavy hitting forehead smackings by getting rid of him and watching him dominate.
sign Greg, take the chance. period.

Main Owners’ goal for the upcoming CBA: Improve profit margin by installing a hardcap/revenue-sharing and restrict player movement as small-market teams are losing stars or have to overpay its stars to keep them.

Players’ goal for the upcoming CBA: Keep the system as-is, since overall distribution of profits between the owners and the players are ideal.

Given those two goals going into the next CBA, I cannot reasonably picture a scenario where we’d have hard time re-signing Greg long-term even if he takes the QO. Because of the two goals of the opposing parties, the 3 outcomes are:
1. Owners have their way: smaller, hard caps and player movement are much more limited (franchise tags, etc.).
2. Players have their way: systems is much like how it is currently.
3. Blend of the current system and what the owners want: revenue-sharing or semi-hard cap, lose 1 year of guaranteed salary, some restriction on player movement.

The most likely scenario, in my estimation is 3 then 1 with 2 being very unlikely. In all 3 scenarios, Blazers are likely to be able to re-sign Greg even after he hits unrestricted FA. In scenario 3, Blazers will be able to go over the cap to re-sign Greg to a long-term contract albeit with a penalty in form of cap penalty. In scenario 1, while it is possible that someone make huge offer for Greg, it isn’t plausible as all other teams will be working with a smaller, hard cap, which means even less teams will have money to offer to free agents. Not only that, it’ll likely have some devices that’ll compensate Portland even if Greg somehow leaves. (Think NFL’s current system). Even in scenario 2, Portland is able to offer more money than anyone else. So, it becomes more of a test of will in terms of the franchise’s willingness to spend for a championship and give him a big contract rather than another team coming in and stealing Greg.

At the same time, the best action for Greg is take a long-term contract now as you want as much guaranteed money as possible. Even if Greg is confident in long-term health, if anyone halfway financially competent is advising Greg, you take as much guaranteed money and run based on your past performance which includes inability to stay healthy. While it is also likely that Greg would just take the QO, that happens not because he is supremely confident that he can stay healthy and make more $$$ later, but because team GO predicts the next CBA to be extremely unfavorable and would likely make much less than the QO. It’s actually more likely that GO re-signs now for longer terms if they predict the next CBA to be closer to how it currently stands.

but, more than we’ve seen him “back down Tim Duncan and dunk on him” we’ve seen him fould out in 8 minutes of actual court time. That number may be exaggerated from 12 full minutes, but you get the point.

He had problems with fouling in college too. How long does this take to figure out? Dont want to spend a whole year figuring this out next year Greg, that is fraudulent. Instead of sulking on the bench all year, you could be thinking about how to not foul and interpret peoples words when they tell you to not “slap down on a player.” Is that too difficult? If it is, giving you 40 million $’s is too difficult for me if I am Paul Allen.

The QO enables him to earn the most money he ever did next year while getting healthy, then proving what he can on the court, and getting much better offers in 2012 than he’d get now (think Joakim Noah and up). If he’s as efficient as he was the last time and plays in a decent number of games not sustaining another major injury, he’ll get those deals from multiple teams and can then decide if he wants to stay with the Blazers or not at a better deal than he’d get now. And even if he sustains another injury, some team will take the risk and give him a small deal anyway (think Olowokandi and Brand at the high end or Kwame at the low end who still got more deals after “busting”). He’ll not make 0 on top of the millions for 2011/12 even in that “catastrophic” case. At any rate, the ball is in his court and he can decide his own destiny.

Ideal outcome for the Blazers: There is BOTH some kind of amnesty clause and some kind of franchise tag/strong restriction for 1-2 players in the next CBA, enabling them to do whatever they please with Roy and Oden.

Btw, Cho already must have done first calculations on this issue before deciding to not extend Greg last fall, fully aware of the upcoming CBA/QA situation. At that time they decided the risk was too high for an extension – with too much uncertainty for both sides. How has the risk decreased since then with another injury? It hasn’t, the uncertainty is still there and can only be resolved by seeing him back on the court.

:-)