2-3-4 scenarios (updated 4/12 10:45pm)

by douglast on Apr 10, 2011 9:29 PM PDT

Tie-Breakers:

Big advantage to LA here. They own 2-1 tie-breakers over both OKC and Dallas, OKC would beat Dallas in a 2-way or 3-way tiebreaker, due to being a division winner.

Games Remaining:

Lakers: Spurs, @Kings
Mavericks: @Rockets, Hornets
Thunder: @Kings, Bucks

Scenarios

Lakers have clinched no worse than 3rd:
Lakers clinch 2nd with a win OR a Dallas loss
Lakers fall to 3rd with a loss AND a Dallas win

Dallas:
Dallas clinches 2nd with a win and a Laker loss
Dallas clinches 3rd with a win OR an OKC loss
Dallas falls to 4th with a loss and an OKC win

OKC cannot finish 2nd:
OKC clinches 3rd with a win, and a Dallas loss
OKC falls to 4th with a loss OR a Dallas win

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Comments

forgot about the division winner tie-breaker - re-doing this...

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 10, 2011 9:32 PM PDT reply actions

ok, should be fixed

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 10, 2011 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Dallas plays its last game against New Orleans.

They might lose this game on purpose, depending on playoff position, trying to meet New Orleans in the playoffs.

by amlmart1 on Apr 10, 2011 10:21 PM PDT reply actions

dallas losing that game could drop them to 4th

a matchup with denver is by far their last choice, so i don’t see them losing on purpose

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 6:39 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't see any team losing for position at this point

the general philosophy has been to try and win going into the playoffs. I really like the race this year, there are so many intangibles that nobody can predict who they face. everybody will be playing hard til the end

by sparks89 on Apr 11, 2011 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions

The only potential tank job I see out there is Spurs against the Lakers

in order to guarantee they won’t drop to 4th and keep them out of their bracket. Spurs still are contesting home court against Chicago though. My instinct is Pops plays his starters but limits minutes for Duncan and Manu pretty significantly for that game, and rolls the dice with his bench.

by howlingfantods on Apr 11, 2011 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Mindblowing!!!! Every team has 2 game left and anything is possible.

Deliberately losing games to try to get a specific match wont work because every team could change seeds………

INSANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LaMONSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by LaMarvelous on Apr 10, 2011 10:27 PM PDT reply actions

Bottom line: no team wants to go into the playoffs out of rhythm

They are ALL trying to win out.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Apr 10, 2011 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions

disagree

You mean that the Lakers are just losing this many games? Why? I don’t think they’re trying to win out or else they would be (except against Portland, of course :-)). Not sure about San Antonio.

OKC, Dallas, Denver, yeah these guys are all trying to win out.

I have Comcast. I know that makes you hate me. I'm sorry. If it's any consolation, my neighborhood may get Comcast but we've got someone who plays the tuba. A lot.

by musicdaniel on Apr 11, 2011 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions

it's quite possible that the L*kers are struggling

they appeared to be quite hungry, playing quite hard, and getting pretty nasty during our last matchup. LA won’t have too much trouble in the first round, but if they get a seven game series, they’ll need to bring some mental toughness to the 2nd round

by sparks89 on Apr 11, 2011 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions

There's a difference between trying to win and playing all out

At this point, the Laker players are just not willing to play so hard that their legs get heavy and their lungs burn—and that’s what it takes for them to beat determined, talented teams like the Blazers & Thunder.

This is especially noticable on defense. You’re just not seeing that clamp-down, scrambling Laker D. You know: the kind that absolutely smothers the Blazers’ offense in 4th quarters.

Can the Hated Ones turn on that intensity on Game 1 of the playoffs? I’m not certain, but I’m sure not going to bet against them.

I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.

I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.

by hurryup09 on Apr 12, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions

I thought they coasted through the portland game

and the first quarter of the OKC game, but they were definitely trying by the second quarter and throughout the rest of the game against OKC. I think they’re struggling.

by howlingfantods on Apr 11, 2011 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

just like last year

the L*kers lost 7of 11 down the stretch, then flipped the proverbial switch in the post season

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Apr 11, 2011 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I thought they lost 6 of their last 9.

by Natsthecat on Apr 12, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions

those two results are not incompatible

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Apr 13, 2011 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions

If OKC wins the tiebreaker over Dallas

why do they need 2 wins and 2 Dallas losses to jump them (wouldn’t they just need either a) 2 wins and 1 Dallas loss or b) 1 win and 2 Dallas losses)?

Get well Greg! Rip City is still behind you!

by axel360 on Apr 10, 2011 11:00 PM PDT reply actions

OKC is effectively 2 games behind Dallas

they are 1 game behind Dallas in the standings and Dallas owns the tiebreaker against OKC

Red means run, son, numbers add up to nothin

by Biph on Apr 10, 2011 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions

My Bad OKC is effectively 1 1/2 games behind Dallas and LA

Red means run, son, numbers add up to nothin

by Biph on Apr 10, 2011 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually OKC holds the tie breaker over both teams because they are division winners, that is the first order of a tie breaker

by tyeforshee on Apr 11, 2011 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions

lakers are also a division winner

LA owns the tiebreaker on OKC

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah you are right, OKC and la hold tie breaker over Dallas, but la holds tie breaker over both teams

by tyeforshee on Apr 11, 2011 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions

fixed. thanks

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Looks like a typo on the OKC entry

I presume the last one is supposed to be “clinch 4th”?

by Timmay! on Apr 10, 2011 11:37 PM PDT reply actions

by golly, I think this man is right!

“clinches 4th”

Elitism - It's lonely at the top. But it's comforting to look down upon everyone at the bottom.

by thankyouforblaze on Apr 11, 2011 3:27 AM PDT up reply actions

nope. OKC gets third if they tie Dallas, either with 2 wins and one Dallas loss (line 2)

or 1 win and two Dallas losses (line 3).

by howlingfantods on Apr 11, 2011 4:07 AM PDT up reply actions

this

i left off the 4th scenarios for OKC, since it’s the “default” for them.

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 6:41 AM PDT up reply actions

douglast..thank you for your work on this!!

by Natsthecat on Apr 11, 2011 12:13 PM PDT reply actions

Spurs will probably tank game against lakers

1. Rest their players
2. Avoid facing them in the 2nd round of the play-offs

by The Thinker on Apr 11, 2011 2:39 PM PDT reply actions

And they will beat the Kings to lock up #2

My guess is that it will be Up to the Mavs to decide who will be #3 since OKC will win out.

by The Thinker on Apr 11, 2011 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, game against Houston tonight is big for Dallas if they want the #3 seed

by diskord on Apr 11, 2011 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions

its big for them if they want the 2 seed too

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions

i disagree

chances of Lakers falling to 4 are pretty low, and the Spurs are in a dogfight for best overall record.

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions

if OKC loses tonight, they are locked into 4th

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 8:36 PM PDT reply actions

LA will lose their last two

They are tanking to get Denver.

They feel they are a good match up against the Nuggets, despite the recent home loss to them. Then they can get the Spurs in the second round and stay away from the whole Blazers/Grizzlies/Thunder/Mavericks hairball until the WCF when they’re back playing their ‘A’ game.

by baduk on Apr 11, 2011 9:01 PM PDT reply actions

That or they win their last two

Getting them HC in the first two rounds, but against the Blazers or Grizzlies, neither match-up of which they’re likely to be crazy about at this point. I’d be surprised if they drop to third.

by baduk on Apr 11, 2011 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions

they cant control all the variables though.

they can win both and get 2nd, win 1 and get 2nd or 3rd, and lose both and get 3rd or 4th. not to mention, they have no way of controlling or even knowing who is going to be in 7th until the last day, and maybe 6th as well.

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions

updated to reflect Dallas and OKC wins

80+ free throws in that Kings/Thunder game. Ugh.

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 11, 2011 9:32 PM PDT reply actions

Did Bennett Salvatore ref that game?

by Natsthecat on Apr 12, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions

A crude estimate

Percentages here aren’t based on an actual chance of being in that slow, but rather the amount of scenarios in which that team is in that slot.

Spurs: 100% 1st
Lakers: 50% 2nd, 33% 3rd, 17% 4th
Mavs: 42% 2nd, 42% 3rd, 17% 4th
OKC: 8% 2nd, 25% 3rd, 67% 4th
Nuggets: 100% 5th
Blazers: 53% 6th, 33% 7th, 13% 8th
Hornets: 13% 6th, 47% 7th, 40% 8th
Memphis: 33% 6th, 20% 7th, 47% 8th

"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez

by TheGreatMon on Apr 11, 2011 9:37 PM PDT reply actions

Basically it is down to the Lakers or Mavs, regardless of what the Blazers do.

by tyeforshee on Apr 11, 2011 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions

lookin like have either the Thunder or LA to me

Unless the deer can put up a fight

of course there is a scenario missing right> what happens if both dallas and okc win and the lakers have one loss?

Dallas is 2nd and the lakers are 3rd right? Cause this seems like the most likely scenario to me…unless the lakers want to get a little mojo going headig into the playoffs. Of course they are largely playing rope a dope right now.

There is no way that Laker team loses like they did last night if they were taking it seriously. They were tied with like 2:50 left in that game to go down by 16 and lose by 14? No way if they were playing to really win it. Maybe they get beat, but a collapse like that with Kobe, Odom and Gasol out there? not even reasonable to assume, OKC is good but not that good.

"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)

by PDXBuckeye on Apr 12, 2011 12:38 AM PDT reply actions

correct.

that scenario is not missing, it’s handled here:
Lakers clinches 3rd with 1 win OR an OKC loss
Dallas clinches 2nd with a win and a Laker loss, OR 2 Laker losses

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 12, 2011 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Wish I could rec this twice...since you've updated it and put more work into it!

by Natsthecat on Apr 12, 2011 11:06 AM PDT reply actions

no worries, thanks for the one update at least

I will be doing it again tonight after the Lakers results

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 12, 2011 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions

preview

if Lakers win tonight:
- Lakers clinch 3rd or better
- Lakers will control their destiny on 2 seed
- OKC cannot finish 2nd

if Lakers lose tonight:
- Dallas will control their destiny on 2 seed
- all 3 teams could still finish in any order

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Apr 12, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions