Malcolm Gladwell, Justin Tuck, Gerald Wallace & The 10,000-Hour Rule
by Ben Golliver on Mar 9, 2011 8:00 AM PST
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PrintThe 2011 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, held in Boston this past weekend, opened with a panel moderated by author Malcolm Gladwell. In his recent smash hit Outliers, Gladwell outlined the "10,000-Hour Rule", a theory that asserts that 10,000 hours of deliberate, repetitive practice and development is a magic benchmark for achieving greatness in many fields.
The Sloan panel, which included former NBA head coach Jeff Van Gundy and Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, addressed how the 10,000-Hour Rule might apply to professional sports, an industry where physical attributes like size, strength and quickness provide such a huge competitive advantage. Van Gundy and Morey singled out Tracy McGrady as their quintessential example of a player whom they felt relied on his freakish athleticism and remarkable natural ability to enjoy merely a great NBA career instead of diligently practicing his craft so that he might reach his legendary potential.
New York Giants DE Justin Tuck was also a panelist, and he was asked to address this notion of unfulfilled promise and the importance of diligent, repeated skill development from the professional athlete's perspective. Tuck said that he agreed with the idea that concentrated and single-minded skill development had the potential to change the course of an athlete's career; To explain his thinking, he used Portland Trail Blazers forward Gerald Wallace in an example.
"I've been around a lot of athletes in basketball, football and basketball," Tuck, who hails from Alabama, said. "In high school, I remember going to school wtih a guy named Jamario Moon. Our biggest rival was a guy named Gerald Wallace. Freshman year, Jamario was kind of the guy. Gerald was an up-and-comer. Gerald was the guy who was always improving, always working on his craft. Jamario was the kind of guy who could jump with a 45 inch vertical, he could shoot threes, he could do everything he wanted to do on the basketball court."
Over a 10 year NBA career, Wallace has averaged 13.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 597 games. Moon, who most recently played for the Los Angeles Clippers and has spent time in the D-League, has career averages of 6.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 263 games.
Tuck said that Moon's athletic gifts at an early age may have undermined his understanding of the importance of hard work and dedicated skill development. "It kind of swayed him not to practice as much I guess. His natural ability led him not to develop as much. Now, Gerald is an All-Star player. Jamario is in the league but not as good as he could have been if he had taken it serious. I tend to agree that sometimes [being] early natural athletes does get in the way of development."
Of course, Wallace became an All-Star not only because of his hard-working, take-no-prisoners "Crash" mentality but also because of some pretty impressive physical gifts. Tuck's point (Gladwell's point, too) isn't that work ethic and physical talent are a mutually exclusive dichotomy, but that dedicated work ethic over an extended period of time can serve as a key determining factor for similarly talented players raised in similar upbringings.
"When you have that talent and you have so many gifts at an early age, you get swayed and blinded by the fact that it's always going to be that easy," Tuck said. "But as you go up levels -- in college, I've seen guys that are unstoppable, but when they get to the league they disappear because they haven't developed that work ethic and drive, that whatever obstacles come in your way you're going to figure out ways to win."
To date, Outliers has well over a million hardcover copies in print after debuting at No. 1 on the New York Times Bestsellers List back in 2008. Maybe Crash can get on the cover of a future paperback edition?
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
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I’ve read Outliers, it says that if you were born early in the school year that you have a much higher chance of reaching your intellectual potential.
The 10,00 hour rule is just a random number that sounds good. Of course if you practice something forever youre going to be great at it
Nothing so causational
In outliers Gladwell notes that the kids that are old for their grade have a favorable comparison population and thus may mistakenly be treated as “more gifted” (physically or mentally) when in fact age and variance within the grade accounts for much of the difference. The argument after that is that the extra nurture these kids get may help them reach the potential of their nature a bit better, and shows evidence of birth-month bias in hockey and other sports as possible evidence.
Chopping it down to " if you were born early in the school year that you have a much higher chance of reaching your intellectual potential" is a bit misleading IMO, even if that is the end result. The subtleties in the connections are important to the meaning conveyed.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
@nathanbegley
Aldridge
After the Miami win Aldridge had an interview on NBA tv. I was happy to hear him talking about the work he put in over the offseason and recognizing how it’s paying off. He even said if you work hard, you CAN get better in this league. He deliberately added moves, particularly going left, I imagine through many hours and repetition. His defense has gotten better too, although that seems to be from the “hours of live action” category. In which you hope a guys instincts and reaction would improve from experience, recognition, repetition. Ala “tricks of the trade” Camby’s specialty. All of this is bolstered through success and growing confidence as well. Its more than intriguing to imagine a player like him after a couple more summers of hours, adding tools, and refining an already polished game. Gotta love the idea he still thinks about getting better. Honestly, if he does improve much more he’ll be on the elite list.
"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy
by courtsideerrandboy on Mar 9, 2011 8:27 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
a lot has been said about players not improving after a certain age
and LMA would apparently be an exception to that rule. However, the exception is the hard work + physical gifts. A lot of guys work hard – but LMA is an elite athlete in addition to being driven to improve. That’s the “outlier” combination that makes LMA different.
Roy, by comparison – has the work ethic and desire to improve – and although (was) an underrated athlete, he didn’t have the elite athleticism that would make him transcendent.
LMA is almost at Roy’s pre-injury level. I don’t think he will be a transcendent superstar – but he should complete the transition to sustainably elite among his peers.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
Interesting...
LMA is almost at Roy’s pre-injury level. I don’t think he will be a transcendent superstar – but he should complete the transition to sustainably elite among his peers.
After the 2006 draft, I heard Reggie Miller on the radio, most likely with Dan Patrick. I haven’t really thought of Reggie as a very good announcer or even that great of a basketball mind since this time. But the day after that draft, Reggie Miller applauded the Blazers and said that Brandon Roy would be the Rookie of the Year because he was the most ready to contribute at the NBA level, but that years down the road we would all view LaMarcus Aldridge as the best player from that draft.
The only player I see that could make a case otherwise from that draft would be Rondo.
by Rodney Gustafson on Mar 10, 2011 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
One might conclude that
Reggie had a spot on “educated guess”. By educated, he could have determined Roy’s consistency (probably developed with 4 years of college) would have a good jump start entering the NBA. I mean this would be 3 extra years of basket ball refinement compared to a one year player like LMA.
However good character can add a ton to a players value, because it is a positive thing going forward. Character wise, LMA was at the top of his class and did not have an overzealous ego to disrupt his development as a player.
I never understood why many fans wanted to bury this guy for underachieving. I only looked at him as a player that went out every day and did what they asked of him. He was perfectly happy deferring to Roy and this is what he did.
Now moving back to the off season, when everyone, including his coach, was put out by him not wishing to pursue the National team. But LMA had a plan of his own…To bulk up and develop a body that can pound inside. He followed this up with working on the new dimensions, IE back to the basket, posting down low, and roll to the hoop.
This was a very smart move on LMA’s part and he can honestly say he had a pro-active off-season. Who else on this team other than Mathews dedicated himself more than LMA.? You can certainly question Roy’s off-season and for sure Rudy’s.
It’s all about gaining an edge and then putting in the extra work to keep refining that edge. You simply can never look back, it’s all about moving forward.
Up and running.........and almost defending.
by WyEast on Mar 10, 2011 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I know you're not fishing for recs
but I gave you one, anyway ;^)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
As far as fans being upset with LMA...
I have long wondered if we fans would have given Aldridge less flack had we not tolerated Rasheed Wallace. I think many of us looked at Aldridge and saw a guy that had the tools to be a BEAST inside and instead floated outside. I think many of us identified this as a lack of heart, lack of willingness to be THE MAN, and it frustrated us the way Sheed did. Had we not gone through the Sheed era, maybe we would have had more patience.
I hope it was a learning lesson from us all, myself included. :-)
by Rodney Gustafson on Mar 11, 2011 2:22 PM PST up reply actions
Aldridge NBA tv
http://www.nba.com/blazers/tbtv/video.html?videoID=1326
"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy
by courtsideerrandboy on Mar 9, 2011 8:54 AM PST up reply actions
that jump stop last night
where LMA drove, then slid past Miller at an angle (instead of charging) and drew the and-1
I wonder how many times he and Bayno worked on that move in the gym?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The true value of Gladwell
I love Gladwell however I think he is chiefly a provocateur and secondarily a writer/journalist and lastly a theorist.
When listening to him deny the existence of genius on Radio Lab it was plain that he was simply baiting the host.
However I do think there is intrinsic value in challenging conventional wisdom, apart from the merits of any specific argument. The world needs more talented provocateurs.
So 10,000 hours? Maybe. At least it got us thinking.
Yes, and...
my takeaway from the Outliers book is that to be an outlier you have to A) have the talent, B) work very hard and C) be lucky enough to be (born) at the right place at the right time.
It reinforces the value of talent and hard work and attacks the American mythos of the self made man as each and every one of the outliers had a lot of help and a lot of breaks, breaks they didn’t make but took advantage of, along the way.
Kismet: I was just wondering yesterday about LBJ’s work ethic. I’m sure he works hard, but I’ve heard a lot about Kobe and Jordan’s legendary work ethic while I haven’t heard much about his. I have to wonder if that’s why he’s continually come up short in his pro career.
Hard work and practice make you better
in other news the sky is blue, water is wet, I’d rather not go to work today, cheese has a high fat content and bacon is the single greatest food ever..
Taxes don't kill jobs.
by shenanigans on Mar 9, 2011 9:03 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
as my coach used to say
Practice doesn’t make perfect – it makes permanent.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 9, 2011 5:30 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I used to hear a variation of that
Practice doesn’t make perfect — perfect practice makes perfect. It was a reminder that you can reinforce bad habits just as easily as you can reinforce good ones.
Wiggada Wiggada Zers!
I was going to mention The Glide, too...
but it’s possible. Drexler was a horrible practice player. “The Glide” is an appropriate moniker in more ways than one.
And despite that, Drex is still a HOFer.
Sad, really.
Si equum mortuum flagellēs, non celerium currat.
by EngineerScotty on Mar 9, 2011 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
It's an interesting question to ponder.
From what I remember, Jordan was characterized as a focused perfectionist. He worked really hard on his game and defense. Clyde on the other hand, was notorious for loafing practice time yet managed to produce at an elite level at game time. I always felt the gap between those two wasn’t so large. Perhaps a workaholic Drexler may have made him near unstoppable.
Does anyone know what Batum's work ethic at practice is like?
He has so many physical gifts but hasn’t seemed to realize his potential.
I have read Outliers. I hadn’t thought about applying the 10,000 hours theory to the Blazers since so many of the players are so young.
The theory seems to make sense when considering the play of Dre and Camby though. They may not be the most athletic or strongest guys in the league, but they certainly have created a style of game over many ‘hours’ that has perfected their particular strengths.
I have no idea how their birth dates play into how they were first developed.
I guarantee most Blazers are over the 10,000 hour mark.
Playing 20 hours a week for ten years would do it. I thin kmost of these guys have that covered. Andre is probably on his way to 30,000. You can see it in his game. He’s kinda already seen it all.
nope
If you assume that an average player works 20 hours/ week per year professionally (suggesting they work every work week . . . 52 weeks) that would land each player @ 1040 per year. To reach 10,000 hours would take 10 years. The majority of Blazer players have not been in this league for this length of time. Players do not work 52 weeks out of the year.
One can argue for college hours spent training. However, as anyone who knows DI sports knows that these #’s are impossible as one knows you have to pass classes with a C or better to remain on the team.
30,000 hours for Dre is an impossibility. Especially seeing that he takes some time off to rest his body, as every pro bball player must.
I see Dre and Camby as the closest to the 10,000 number as any professional athlete can even hope to achieve. They both rock!
But are we really talking about 10,000 hours as a pro
Or just 10,000 applying themselves to their craft?
I think it would be safe to say that most pro basketball players probably started playing ball 20 hours per week or more from about age 11. So 10 years would be the age of 21. Even if you don’t want to count the earliest years, or all weeks of the year, you have to realize that many of these players work on their skills WAY more than 20 hours per week.
by Rodney Gustafson on Mar 10, 2011 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly what I was gonna say
Clyde was rumored to have beaten Carl Lewis in a race at Houston, Jordan had to work to make his high school varsity team. I would argue that Clyde had more physical gifts but Jordan worked harder and had the killer instinct to boot.
Another tireless worker from the 80s was Larry Bird. Dominique Wilkens was much more gifted but Larry Legend outworked everyone.
"What we have here, is a failure to communicate."
A better example would be between Vince Carter and Kobe Bryant.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
This means that I only have 500 hours left til I perfect my "Asteroids" mastery
“10,000-Hour Rule”, a theory that asserts that 10,000 hours of deliberate, repetitive practice and development is a magic benchmark for achieving greatness in many fields.
Harry Bosch: "Everybody counts....or nobody counts."
by 92wastheyear on Mar 9, 2011 9:34 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I need to show this to my oldest
next time he complains about having to practice the piano. :)
Si equum mortuum flagellēs, non celerium currat.
The motivation has got to come from within
and not an effort to please others
just my .02
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
sports analytics.....
lets just say it has yet to evolve to maturity.
But it will because there are smart people scrutinizing it’s value. The very people that pioneered it’s development into a player evaluation tool, are the same one’s admitting it has plenty of gray area. In other words, what are intangibles and how much do they play into the final product of a player?
Computer evaluation with extensive data, fill in some factual information and makes a good case for probability, but none of the intangibles get into the sampling. At least not yet. I suppose there will be some measurement of this at some point, but it would tend to be quite selective, often bias and very complicated.
A simple comparison might be made with todays weather forecasting… Normally meteorologists will use several different models and then choose to forecast the weather by using the data in middle of the bell curve. Quite logical, and likely pretty accurate if the bell curve is steep and narrow. However if you have data that flattens out the bell curve,(and when you are talking weather probably more the norm) the weather forecaster (meteorologist) needs his own expertise, knowledge, and experience to be applied. That is if he/she has enough integrity to study the pattern and come to an educated scenario.
Hence the intangibles of the weather such as the ever shifting jet stream, frontal vs local, water temp, pressure variances over land,etc. are weather variables that sometimes can’t be predicted.
Up and running.........and almost defending.
I think this is just another way
Of introducing people to the power of their own mind. IT seems in our society too much is made of talent. Its a way of justifying mediocrity, just chalking everything up to genetics and shrugging your shoulders.
I try to approach everything I do the way I tried to get better at shooting when I was a kid. Just go to the park alone and put in the work. It pays off.
But yeah, NBA is the intersection of freakish genetics AND hard work, for the most part. No big revelation there.
Also
Check out this dialogue between Bill Simmons and Gladwell. Pay particular attention to the part about capitalization rates. Very, very, very interesting theory. I recently read Tom Ferry’s book about youth sports and there’s some very interesting chapters about AIS and talent identification that other countries use to discover elite athletes. The point of these is that if you actually put in some investment, you take out the “have to be born in the right place at the right time” element to success, athletically at least. Like I said, very interesting ideas. Gladwell is certainly not the only one who has proposed an idea like Outliers.
Planetside expert here. :)
OSU '06
GForce Crash Wallace FTW!
by TyboOSU on Mar 9, 2011 11:07 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I love Gladwell
Nice to see his writing come up into the light again. Not that they are all his original ideas, but he does have a gift of looking at “evidence” from other points of view.
He never overly simplifies things based on just a few facts. It is still just his opinion, but i sure makes you think about it more.
Ruudster
I read Outliers a couple of years ago.
At the time, it made me think of gymrats like Jerryd Bayless. He seemed like the type to be in a hurry to get his 10K hours. He certainly has talent as well. Still, talent and 10,000 hours haven’t helped him to reach a higher plateau. I think Wesley is another fine example of a gymrat…it seems to be working better for him than Jerryd.
The Dude abides.
quick summary
It is not if you are athletic + if you practice all the time = greatness.
You have to have all the right elements. Then all things being equal, the person who works the hardest will be more (much?) successful. Playless has the physical and the work ethic, but obviously lacks some skills to allow him to even be a starter in this league.
Clyde worked hard and Jordan worked hard. Jordan had more to work with than Clyde did or he worked more/harder.
It is 10,000 of practicing/doing a specific thing. So if you started playing “real” ball in high school… athletes peak at 28 +/-, thus 10,000 hours / 14 years / 365 days = 1.96 hours of practice or games a year.
Ruudster
if their knees hold up
some of it has to be winning the genetic lottery, just ask Brandon Roy
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
You've seen this?
I like Gladwell, but I still think this is hilarious: The Malcolm Gladwell Book Generator
Wiggada Wiggada Zers!
LMAO!!
Excellent.
To be fair, he actually has a knack for the short form — 5-15 pg magazine articles, on light topics. But his books inevitably morph into a mishmash of silly conclusions based on shaky premises.
Yeah, he's extremely overrated.
"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."
What does 10,000 hours of blogging get us?
or 10,000 hours of Pelton crunching numbers in spread sheets?
I shoulda learned to play the guitar…I shoulda learned, to play them drums…that ain’t workin’…that’s the way you do it…money for nuthin’ and your chicks for free
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I can say this, 10,000 comments isn't some magic mark that makes one poster better than another.
Rec to comment ratio is where it’s at.
"The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason." - G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, 1909
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by T Darkstar on Mar 9, 2011 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
then tominhawaii was the most-productive Bedger ever
playing to the crowd is so lame, it’s like turning tricks (in my not so humble opinion)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Well,
I always thought so. And while his is good, turns out Jscot crushed him in this particular category. But Jscot has been on a self induced bedgecation apparently.
"The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason." - G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, 1909
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Rec to comment ratio that is.
I thought I’d try my hand at making up pointless statistics and see how it went.
"The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason." - G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, 1909
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I'm not surprised Jscot is #1
he’s provided great content, so did Timbo (and it’s not easy complimenting…a Beaver)
but they’ll never hit 10k comments writing 18 paragraphs in every fanpost ;^)
less can be more, but tom’s act was like a poo-poo platter, his goal was to attract flies
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
whether you attract flies
or just want social conformation, supporting an ego or agenda, the “rec to comment ratio” is a weak, sheep-like comparison. (what is it validating ?)
Many Rec’ed comments are a groupie sideshow that often rearranges attention on the commenter or a personal agenda and therefore puts the subject matter second. Of course there are plenty of exceptions to this and most do not post or comment too frequently.
I agree Timbo provided material worthy of recommendation because he always provided a thorough evaluation that always included points of interest/opinion from both sides. A few other people could be very good, but they likely have a job, families and overall more important things to do than work on their soapbox socialism. We thank you, BE for the platform.
Some people just need an audience or a group following, and I try not to hold that against them. Individual diversity makes life interesting and you can always choose to ignore the big names and go for the smaller, but generally more diverse shows.
The fallacy about the rec’ed comments is that people will rec what they agree with and therefore, can skew it’s significance as a worth the read comment.
Up and running.........and almost defending.
Oh sure, take it seriously.
"The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason." - G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, 1909
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Too true.
"The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason." - G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, 1909
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