Forget the defensive anchor at the pivot for the moment--I feel this team is one shooter from being a contender

by you have my axe on Mar 29, 2011 6:58 AM PDT

One all world shooter that is. I am talking Steve Kerr/Smith/Reggie Miller/Ray Allen level here. G Dub brings the hard nose hustle and makes us so much more versatile. If we just could have one constant threat from anywhere on the court to spread out defenders I think we would be there. Now the question is who could be that piece? Could it come from within the team (Roy? Batum? Rudy? Babbit??)? Or is that piece not here? Anthony Morrow comes to my mind but for some reason I question his mindset and work ethic--which partially be merely because he hasn't had a role on a team really competing for anything, but who knows.

EDIT: I obviously didn't do a good enough job convincing anyone so here is a bit more of a write up. I hope you give this post another chance and give me your thoughts on this

There is whole lot of talent and versatility in those five wings. Batum can play the three or four and guard the one through four. G Dub also can play the three or four and guard either quite well while being able to rotate to a guard or a big somewhat effectively--at least as well as every other strong SF not named James. Wes can play two or three and cover both guard spots as well as many small forwards. Rudy and Roy can be effective setting up the offense or playing off the ball, and can be effective against many lineups as the small forwards. Neither of those last two are premier on ball defenders but they know how to play the passing lanes.

Our greatest strength as I see it right now is our versatility, and Nate seems to agree. One thing that makes us scary to opposing coaches is how we cross match up against teams--and 'Dre and our wings are a HUGE part of that. Miller's ability to post up smaller quicker guards is a very nice advantage we have. And then on the other side of the floor Nic can guard that quick point guard and help negate that potential advantage other teams might have on Andre. I come upon this assessment mostly because of Nate. I get the impression we have been throwing zones at teams more often lately---and it has been much more effective since the trade for Wallace. He makes us so much tougher and more flexible. Our defense really isn't the Blazers big issue at this point. Now our weakness. I didn't catch all of the last San Antonio game, but of what I did see was them packing the paint on us. A strategy that so many other teams have done and had success against us with (OKC game is a recent example--they are SCARY with Perk). Now I am not saying that we do not need a reliable big who can crash the boards and play some D (thank god we did not overpay for David Lee), especially with Camby getting even older. What I am thinking though is if we have someone to consistently make defenses pay for crowding the lane, that would open the paint up for LMA, Roy, Crash and 'Dre. Also think about Andre's ability to find a shooter anywhere on the floor--I wish I had stats on what percentage of our three pointers he has assisted on since coming to Portland.

Now shooters on the Nash, Kerr, Allen level are almost as rare as a healthy defensive big, but if we have a chance to grab one we should jump on it. As far as a big I really like Dalembert as an offseason acquisition.

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A couple of 2011 free agents worth considering?

Jason Kapono
Jason Richardson
Michael Redd

If the price is right…

by looster401 on Mar 29, 2011 7:29 AM PDT reply actions

JIMMER!!!!

(just kidding)

Team Aldridge

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 29, 2011 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions

I would love for us to get

J Rich

Elitism - It's lonely at the top. But it's comforting to look down upon everyone at the bottom.

by thankyouforblaze on Mar 29, 2011 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Disagree slightly

I do think we need a shooter in order to contend since we’ve currently got the most wildly inconsistent group of sharp shooters I’ve ever seen. However, I don’t think that’s all we need. For a long time this offense has needed someone who can attack the rim against a good half court defense. Not the way Bayless just sort of launched himself at the rim either. It has to be with more precision than that.

by King Mar on Mar 29, 2011 8:20 AM PDT reply actions

I think

that Wallace guy might work out attacking the rim.

by JeffePortland on Mar 29, 2011 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions

wallace doesnt attack the rim

he can get to rim by running the floor or receiving a timely pass after slashing. Unfortunately, thats not what i had i mind. We need a guy that can attack the basket off the dribble against a set defense. Im sorry but that wallace guy aint it

by King Mar on Mar 31, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions

We have an 8 man roster comprised of 5 wings 1 point and 2 bigs.

I disagree with your assessment.

by howlingfantods on Mar 29, 2011 8:30 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs

rec

by vullkem116 on Mar 29, 2011 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Sounds like you're describing a KFC bucket.

by grigs on Mar 29, 2011 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

i'll take my Blazers

extra crispy.

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Mar 29, 2011 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Nah, let them be grilled!

"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."

by AK1984 on Mar 31, 2011 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions

I think you underestimate our five wings

There is whole lot of talent and versatility in those five wings. Batum can play the three or four and guard the one through four. G Dub also can play the three or four and guard either quite well while being able to rotate to a guard or a big somewhat effectively—at least as well as every other strong SF not named James. Wes can play two or three and cover both guard spots as well as many small forwards. Rudy and Roy can be effective setting up the offense or playing off the ball, and can be effective against many lineups as the small forwards. Neither of those last two are premier on ball defenders but they know how to play the passing lanes.

Our greatest strength as I see it right now is our versatility, and Nate seems to agree. One thing that makes us scary to opposing coaches is how we cross match up against teams—and ‘Dre and our wings are a HUGE part of that. Miller’s ability to post up smaller quicker guards is a very nice advantage we have. And then on the other side of the floor Nic can guard that quick point guard and help negate that potential advantage other teams might have on Andre.

I come upon this assessment mostly because of Nate. I get the impression we have been throwing zones at teams more often lately—-and it has been much more effective since the trade for Wallace. He makes us so much tougher and more flexible. Our defense really isn’t the Blazers big issue at this point.

Now our weakness. I didn’t catch all of the last San Antonio game, but of what I did see was them packing the paint on us. A strategy that so many other teams have done and had success against us with (OKC game is a recent example—they are SCARY with Perk). Now I am not saying that we do not need a reliable big who can crash the boards and play some D (thank god we did not overpay for David Lee), especially with Camby getting even older. What I am thinking though is if we have someone to consistently make defenses pay for crowding the lane, that would open the paint up for LMA, Roy, Crash and ‘Dre. Also think about Andre’s ability to find a shooter anywhere on the floor—I wish I had stats on what percentage of our three pointers he has assisted on since coming to Portland.

You have my axe!

by you have my axe on Mar 30, 2011 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions

It's good to be versatile. It's bad to put your players in roles where they're less effective.

GW is a very good but undersized PF. But he’s reluctant to play PF because he’s gotten really hairy injuries in the past playing against bigger guys and having to mix it up more in the paint. He’s forced his last team to commit to him to play him at SF in the past. Given our injury history, you think it’s good we’re forcing one of our best players to play a role he’s requested not to play on a permanent basis? How do you think he’ll feel about the club if he gets a serious injury while we’re forcing him to play 4?

Nic’s ability to guard four positions is really exaggerated. He can match up with stretch 4s but it’s not like you want him guarding low post and rebounding 4s like Pau or Duncan or Ibaka. Nate overrates his ability to match up on 1s too. I pretty much want him defending wings and only wings, with a few stretch 4s mixed in.

I really gotta disagree with your belief that Roy and Rudy can set up the offense. They had that one good stretch for like 5 minutes against Denver, and that was the last time we’ve seen them be effective in the backcourt together, yeah?

We’re 10th in offensive rating and 15th in defensive, so I don’t really agree with you that the defense isn’t the big issue.

by howlingfantods on Mar 31, 2011 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions

think roy could be such a shooter, but he really needs to play with miller

by utahcoyote on Mar 29, 2011 8:30 AM PDT reply actions

i disagree completely

what this team really needs to address are the PG and C positions moving forward. We have a franchise PF and a host of very capable wings with Roy, Matthews, Rudy, Batum, and Gerald Wallace. None are truly elite shooters, but they all bring a lot more to the table than shooting, and are all more “scorers” than shooters. We might be able to benefit from adding a specialist shooter, but that player wouldn’t be anywhere near the defender or scorer that any of our current wings are, so while you’d gain some shooting accuracy you’d be losing something on the floor by playing him too.

I am still in the camp that thinks Oden will be able to come back and at least be serviceable, I’m not saying he’ll be the dominator he was pre-injury, but he’s only like 22 and should be a solid defensive presence for us. But we’ll still need a solid backup C once Camby is done.

To me the most glaring need is a long-time solution at PG. I LOVE Andre Miller, but he probably has another 1-2 years left, and his contract (should the team exercise the option, which they definitely should) will end after next season. We need to start grooming a young player that will be able to set the table for all of these other guys soon. I actually think there will be a couple in the draft that look solid – but more importantly, I don’t think Patty Mills and even Armon Johnson are the answer at all. PG should be priority #1

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 29, 2011 10:00 AM PDT reply actions

Agreed: 1 and 5 are our weak spots.

Since picking up a Center in a trade or Free Agency is unrealistic (nothing to give back, not enough cap space), I’ve put my eggs in the Oden basket as well. I think the smart thing to do with that position is to find a serviceable backup for Greg, and hope for the best. PG is different. I think picking up a PG in trade or Free Agency is very realistic.

At the end of next season, Camby and Miller’s contracts expire, and Wallace’s has a Player Option for one more year. With all three, Cho could swing a deal for over 31 million. With just Miller and Camby, that’s 21.6 million which is plenty of cheese to offer an All Star caliber PG.

If the Blazers find a decent backup Center in the draft or Free Agency this summer, they will be in fine position to trade for the PGotF. Beyond that, they’re set.

Stealth > Wealth

by 500dogs on Mar 29, 2011 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions

We should be able to get a pretty serviceable big in free agency, as long as the MLE exists

There are going to be quite a few this offseason: Dalembert, Landry, Foster, Hayes, Davis, Jordan (restricted), Mohammed, Chandler, Martin, Yao, some second rounders that will be restricted, possibly Jermaine O’Neal and Turiaf. Not saying that they would all be good choices, but the supply of available big men, combined with a CBA that will reduce the size of contracts that can be offered should make free agency a very viable and not altogether unaffordable, assuming the new CBA does relatively little besides reducing the size of contracts.

I also don’t think we have the assets to get an All Star caliber PG, unless Phoenix decides to trade Steve Nash (in which case I think Sarver will try to save as much money as possible). There are few that would be able to replace Andre’s production, and practically none of them are going to be moved.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Mar 29, 2011 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't trade for Steve Nash for anything

He’s 37 and the end is near. He’s also so bad defensively at this point it diminishes his value. The Nash ship has sailed, not just for Portland but for everybody.

by zeusmith on Mar 30, 2011 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Of the names you mentioned, Turiaf rings my bell.

He would be a great pickup.

As far as PGs, I’m pretty high on Conley and Beaubois. I’m also a huge Nash fan, but that’s kind of a lateral from Miller—another oldster (he’s not showing signs of slowing down, but Father Time is a fickle friend). I think whoever they find is going to be a solid contributor for another team, who flies under the radar a little. I say “All Star caliber” because I don’t think any of the actual All Stars are worth the coin. So the guys I’m thinking of are well within Portland’s price range.

Stealth > Wealth

by 500dogs on Mar 30, 2011 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions

i'd rather have Nolan Smith or Brandon Knight in the draft

than Mike Conley or Roddy Beaubois

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions

The Blazers recent history of developing PGs is not encouraging.

Stealth > Wealth

by 500dogs on Mar 30, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions

The Blazers haven't had a good PG to develop

And Nolan Smith has already been developed by Coach K.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Mar 30, 2011 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions

the Blazers recent history of PGs is not encouraging

it’s been all downhill since Telfair

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions

But none of those PG's are likely to be moved

Conley just signed a huge extension, and Cuban has made it clear that you’ll have to blow him out of the water to get Roddy Buckets (who isn’t a point guard anyway). Other possible names? Kyle Lowry should be untouchable at his price and recent production, and Morey is a good enough GM to know that. Ramon Sessions is a possibility, but not an upgrade or even a replacement at this point. Ditto Kirk Hinrich, Mo Williams, Beno Udrih, and Devin Harris. I just don’t see who we could trade for, except maybe, and that’s a big maybe, Steve Nash.

Then again, I didn’t see us getting Gerald Wallace for spare picks and salary…

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Mar 30, 2011 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions

if the Cavs draft Kyrie Irving, Sessions could be available

he’s one of the better pick-and-roll PGs in the league, I’d be on board with that move

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

But is he really going to be the PGotF?

He’s great for what he makes, and still has a little bit of breakout potential. But I’m not convinced he’d fully replace Miller’s production.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Mar 30, 2011 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions

at this point...

I’d take a guy like Sessions as a holdover…Dre is getting older and we can’t just hope that he doesn’t start to lose a step without any kind of contingency plan

getting a true PGOF is hard – unless you have a top 5 draft pick or are lucky enough to pluck one (i.e. like the Deron Williams trade, but he might not even stay in NJ). I’m not saying it can’t happen, but I’m saying it has to be the right situation, and who know when that will happen for the Blazers. In the meantime, not bad to have a starting-caliber PG so hold you over

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions

FYI

next year andre makes $7.8M, Camby makes $9.2M, so together they’d be at $17M, not $21.6M

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions

According to Storyteller's site, Camby is set to make $12,866,331 and Andre is looking at $7,807,728...

adding up to 20,674,059…so I was off by a million, but what’s a million between friends?

Stealth > Wealth

by 500dogs on Mar 30, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, Camby's incentives are categorized as "likely" under the current CBA, so they count against the cap number, even though they aren't part of his normal salary

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Mar 30, 2011 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

true, I didn't count incentives, just base

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

1 and 5 may be our best positions, at least in terms of net production

From 82games, link:
http://www.82games.com/1011/1011POR5.HTM

Net Production By Position (PER for verus allowed over this season):

PG
+4.1
SG
-0.4
SF
-1.2
PF
-0.4
C
+0.9

As you see, we are strongly in the plus in PG net production, mildly in the plus for Center production, and slightly negative for all others.

by Sound_Automatic on Mar 29, 2011 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions

currently...

but remember, our starters at those spots are both 35+, we need to find long-term replacement solutions

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Our team suffers in ability to play off a slasher

we really need a guy who slashes and passes; yep a tony parker or Ginobli type threat. A player who also hits open outside shots, but doe smost of his damage driving to the rim. We lost that player this season in Roy. Wallace gives us some of the that but he doesn’t pass to his teammates yet. Largely that’s due in my opinion, to Blazers not sliding along the arc to give the slasher a clear outlet pass. Our guys continue to stand still along the perimeter with their defender cutting off the outlet passing lanes. Move guys, that’s why God gave you all feet.

I have hope that Nate will correct that issue next season as I predict this deficiency to be a key point of attack by our opponent(s) in the playoffs this year.

by NWfan on Mar 29, 2011 10:01 AM PDT reply actions

I was really hoping that slasher/disher type was going to be Rudy. Although I sometimes see fear in his eyes.

I could see him develope into more of a Ginobli type, if he could improve his handle a bit.

by blazinagain on Mar 29, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Rudy's what, 26?

Hard to imagine he’ll develop a handle or slashing game. If he could get that 3pt% up to levels he’s shown in the past, I think that’s the best we could hope for.

by samuelleejackson on Mar 29, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't expect him to become an all-world slasher

but to my eyes he could improve quite a bit by adding some strength. He avoids finishing in traffic, even when he gets to the basket. Luckily, strength is something a player can improve even at Rudy’s age.

by zopa on Mar 29, 2011 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Handles aren't improved upon by that age, though.

Suffice it to say, Rudy Fernandez isn’t a long-term answer to anything here.

"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."

by AK1984 on Mar 31, 2011 2:00 AM PDT up reply actions

needs:

1) imposing inside presence on D/rebounding (could be Oden)
2) short-term backup PG who can actually run the offense
3) consistent outsider shooters at the wings
4) medium-term replacement for Miller
5) depth bigs who can rebound well and know their role

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Mar 29, 2011 10:53 AM PDT reply actions

Jamal Crawford

I absolutely agree that we need a shooter. But not a spot up three point shooter, cause we do already have a few of those. What we need is a guy who can consistenly create his own 15-18ft shot. For all the weaknesses of Travis Outlaws game, he did have that jumper.

I bring to you Jamal Crawford. I know that he isn’t the youngest shooter in the league, but he is a guy the blazers management has targeted in the past, he is a NW guy, and he is a guy who can handle the ball, create his own shot, and finish games.

What do ya think

by Buckwill on Mar 29, 2011 11:05 AM PDT reply actions

not unless we would move Rudy

by rip_city_swagger on Mar 30, 2011 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions

what we really need

is a larger hoop on our end…Think about it, seriously; If our shooting percentage is lower than the opposing team then we get a larger hoop by that percentage

by blazerblaze on Mar 29, 2011 12:47 PM PDT reply actions

Now that is an idea!

You have my axe!

by you have my axe on Mar 29, 2011 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/LaceDarius-Dunn-5046/

One of the best college shooters I have ever seen. Draft Dunn and you have your shooter. The PG situation is another matter. Maybe trade up for Walker or Knight

by Kaanyr Vhok on Mar 31, 2011 1:04 AM PDT reply actions

Can we all at the very least agree

That if we added Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Steve Kerr, or Steve Smith in their respective primes, our team would be better? That is the main point of this post.

made em jump like Rod Strickland

by Guaranteed on Mar 31, 2011 3:09 AM PDT reply actions