Pelton: Brandon Roy's Impact Since His Return
Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus writes...
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Looking strictly at the period since Roy's return, the Blazers have been better with him on the floor, outscoring opponents by 6.7 points per 48 minutes. They're +4.8 per 48 minutes when he's been on the bench. That might actually understate Roy's impact, as he has been a relatively small part of lopsided wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers (by 41 points) and the Washington Wizards (by 35) that have padded Portland's differential."
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Teams still have to respect Roy's ability, especially as a shooter (even as he's making just 32.4 percent of his threes). That has served to open things up for his teammates, most notably when Roy is the Blazers' lead ballhandler. Per BasketballValue.com, Portland is scoring at a rate of 109.6 points per 100 possessions with Roy at the point since his return. That makes him an upgrade over Patty Mills, who had been backing up starter Andre Miller.
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Comments
NUH UH
Roy is terrible, he is a terrible defender, he totally slows down the offense, he makes everyone just stand around waiting for him to create, he is selfish, he is a terrible defender, and he is selfish.
Just preempting the haters.
Now more specifics from the article to debunk what I just said:
Per BasketballValue.com, Portland is scoring at a rate of 109.6 points per 100 possessions with Roy at the point since his return. That makes him an upgrade over Patty Mills, who had been backing up starter Andre Miller.
and
Despite his limitations, it is hard to find evidence of Roy hurting Portland defensively. Over the course of the season, the Blazers have been better on defense with him on the floor.
I
by joelor on Mar 24, 2011 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 6 recs
Correlation is not causation.
To give a slightly longer version of your 2nd quote:
Roy’s knees have also had an impact at the defensive end of the floor, where he was never a standout in the best of times. Finding a good matchup for Roy on defense might be a problem in the postseason, though the Blazers’ most likely first-round opponents (the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers) both use slower, bigger point guards who are ideal opposing numbers for Roy. Despite his limitations, it is hard to find evidence of Roy hurting Portland defensively. Over the course of the season, the Blazers have been better on defense with him on the floor.
This doesn’t actually say that Brandon is a good defender. It just says that team defense as a whole has been better since Brandon came back. But as was noted at the beginning of the article, Brandon came back at the same time that Camby and Wallace were re-integrated into the lineup. Personally, I don’t think Brandon is a bad defender. I think he can easily vary from poor to excellent depending on the lateral quickness of his matchup and his personal level of motivation on that given possession.
At the end of the day, I would argue that Gerald Wallace is the primary contributor to our improved defense. Secondarily to that, I would say that Brandon is not hurting the defense because the person whose minutes have most been consumed by Brandon’s return is Patty, and Brandon’s size and tenacity make up for the Hustle and Flop that Patty brings to our defense.
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
by conspirator5 on Mar 24, 2011 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
It says "better defense with him on the floor"
That’s not the same thing as saying is better since he came back from injury. It’s still not quite causation, but it’s a more precise correlation.
T
that made me snort
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Mar 24, 2011 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
A well written article on Brandon Roy! Interesting if Roy becomes our back-up to Miller going forward? He would be similar to Tracy McGrady. He has been averaging 10,5,5, over the last month. Brandon would have no problem matching these numbers. The IQ of Roy is uncontested. This makes him deadly just being on the court!
by Chea Cubana on Mar 24, 2011 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Roy has averaging 10, 5, and 5?
Because I am seeing roughly 9, 2, and 2 right now. T-Mac gets good numbers because of the awful team he’s on.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Thats fine
as long as he has Batum next to him to defend opposing PGs (other than say Fisher)
The Blazers just acquired a great help defender in Wallace. This gives Roy more cushion to slack on defense. Also, if there is one guy I would pick to cover any player in this league with the game on the line, it would be Roy! He knows how not to foul in a crucial moment.
agreed
Roy was ALL OVER kobe at the end of the Lakers game… and Kobe hit it earlier. Roy’s a good late-game defender because he doesn’t fall for pump fakes often and generally keeps a maxim of “stay between my guy and the hoop, leave as little space between bodies as possible”. I remember a year or two back him shutting down ’Melo at the end of the game.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
if his knees allow him the lateral motion to stay in front of guys, he is a very smart defender in late game situations.
Just check the youtube of him shutting down Joe Johnson from a few years ago.
That said, he can play someone really smart but still does not have the physical tools to really shut someone down like Batum/Wallace can.
I
Also, I remember watching Roy block Carmelo Anthony's shot
late in the 4th qtr a couple of years ago. That play solidified a win. The bottom line for me on Roy is that he is a big moment player on offense and defense. He has proven that over and over throughout his career. Roy is great when it counts the most and even though he has physical limitation,s there are few players in the league that have his knack for playing big when it matters the most.
Exactly!
The only question is how he is feeling physically. Let’s ask Coach Nate and Brandon…
“He’s fine. He’s not complaining about anything,” McMillan said.
Roy: “I feel great. I wasn’t extremely aggressive but physically I feel great.” Then, again, later: “I feel good, I feel great actually. I feel physically that I’m in a great spot right now.”
Asked by Matt Calkins of The Columbian if we should read into his recent shooting struggles, Roy said, “I wouldn’t look into it. I thought the Dallas game was good, but physically I haven’t taken any steps back.”
I would conclude he’s just going to get better as the rust wears off. Remember, he wasn’t playing any basketball for a while. In fact, I would even go as far as to say Nate will actually be forced to start him because of how well he’s going to start to play.
Not too undermine this too much and I do agree
but when you know that there is most likely 12 mins of basketball left in a game or that you are low on fouls. It’s easier to compete on the defensive end knowing that it won’t hamper you for the 48 mins.
Being a Blazer fan is not exactly healthy.
He knows how not to foul in a crucial moment.
Unless it’s Yao shooting a corner jumper.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
In his defense (ha ha)
Roy plays much better D when his man has the ball in his hands. He is engaged and interested if he’s concentrating on one thing. It’s when he has to play team D that he falters.
He is horrible at closing out on shooters, or following his man around screens.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
but when you have GW, Batum and Wes$
You would use Roy, the worst man to man defender of the 4 with bad knees, to cover the other teams best player? I disagree. I’ll take any of those other 3 over him. As far as team D with Roy on the court I think having Camby coming off the bench with him helps a lot because it puts our best shot blocker back there to cover up for any defensive lapses he has, of which there are many.
Part of this may also be Roy still getting attention on offense
He’s mentioned it once or twice, that other teams are still defending him as if he was the old Brandon Roy. Because Roy is doing a better job of trying to involve other players than he used to (as opposed to looking for his own shot), and because other guys are doing a better job of moving without the ball than they used to, Roy’s simple presence is opening things up for other people.
This may not last long, but if he can periodically put together performances like he did in Denver and Dallas, it helps force other teams to plan for him.
Also, if they stop defending him as if he was the old Brandon Roy,
it’s a helluva lot easier for him to get his shot, get to the hoop, get open on the perimeter, etc, so pick your poison.
I
exactly!
The minute you don’t double Roy, he’ll kill you. Double him and that leaves la, Wes, Batum, miller, rudy, Wallace, camby open. In the old days teams doubled Roy and he still got 25. Now you may hold him to 8 but we have plenty of other threats.
"She fell in love with the drummer, another and another"
by Cap'n Crash on Mar 25, 2011 1:49 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
This point has been made by many people on BE.
But those who don’t like Roy continue to ignore the facts.
It figures they are no where to be found in this thread. :)
#52
by bustabucket on Mar 24, 2011 1:51 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
To be honest "facts" can be twisted to pretty much fit whatever your argument is.
I think this is more of the team and blazers edge trying to push the public to accept Roy’s return. If it was a player we were trying to get ride of I bet a story about how much they hurt the team would be up instead.
who doesn't like Roy?
It’s not dislike to take an honest assessment of the team and ALL it’s individual players. As Pelton said in the article, “Since Roy returned to the lineup on Feb. 25, the results have been mixed”
Some of the facts are that Roy shooting and scoring efficiency have been subpar since his return. Let’s all hope he can get his shooting stroke back up, which will make his addition to the lineup even a bigger help than it already has been.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Lots of folks...and vocal too
who doesn’t like Roy?
Harry Bosch: "Everybody counts....or nobody counts."
by 92wastheyear on Mar 24, 2011 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions
don't confuse "don't like Roy" with "don't like some of the things we see when he's on the court"
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
I can tell the difference
Harry Bosch: "Everybody counts....or nobody counts."
by 92wastheyear on Mar 24, 2011 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone has an issue with someone not liking his style of play,
everyone is allowed to like what they like. It’s when they take shots at him without the facts or even when the facts are provided they ignore them or discount them. Or my favorite when they make up ‘facts’ to make a point. The personal attacks aren’t needed, they have nothing to do with basketball. And that goes for all the players.
But when they go that route, it only goes to show that their issue is not basketball, but personal for whatever reason.
#52
by bustabucket on Mar 24, 2011 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
For a great example check out the inane comment by meRoy directly above this thread.
Who's that tromping across my bedge!
by Troll Blazer on Mar 24, 2011 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's been what, over a month? give it time. He is learning what he can and can't do and also learning a new role. Patience would be advised.
And there are plenty of people on here who have made it very clear they don’t like Roy. But we are not allowed to call them out so I won’t. But they know who they are. But if you would really like to know I can email you the names and what they’ve said.
Others have not flat out said they don’t like him, but they don’t need to. When all they do is go around this blog and post the things they do, it’s very clear. It’s not like they are “making an honest assessment” of the team, it’s about Roy and only Roy all the time.
#52
by bustabucket on Mar 24, 2011 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
guess I haven't observed any rampant dislike for him at a personal level.
on the flip side, I’ve have seen far too much hero-worship in regards to him on this site, as though he single-handedly rescued the franchise from oblivion. any criticism of him is often grounds for instant scorn or derision, as if he has somehow earned perpetual immunity from critique or something. I try not to treat him any different than I do any other other Blazer
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
While I agree that criticisms of Roy should not be met with scorn
he was absolutely instrumental in our rapid ascent from 21-61 to being on the verge of our 3rd straight playoff appearance/10+wins over .500 season. I don’t know if that qualifies as hero-worship and it certainly doesn’t render him exempt from critique, but it’s not nothing.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Mar 24, 2011 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
People's opinions swing faster than any pendulum out there.
When Roy was at full strength, lot of fans and media members were singing his praises and saying he was going to lead us to a championship. A year or so later, lot of fans and media members want him traded or for him to medically retire (John Lund, I’m talking to you.)
Step back and take a look at the facts before you form your opinions. Brandon’s career could be done or it could be just beginning. There’s not enough proof to state either one like it’s a fact.
If you do, you’re just going to be “looking like a fool with your pants on the ground.”
I would say alot of people like Roy
The question is can he continue to be a role player and fit himself to the team off the bench vs trying to make the team fit themselves to him.
Roy has been a complete player since he was born
the main question going forward will be “is he worth 15,16,17,19M/year for what he provides?”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
No it isn't, because we all know that he will not be worth that much.
That said, that contract is untradeable at least for the next few years, which all of course depends on the new CBA and a bunch of other unforeseeable factors.
So the main question is, “What can this new version of Brandon Roy provide (since he is here to stay for at least awhile), and how is he best utilized?”
I
(since he is here to stay for at least awhile)…which all of course depends on the new CBA and a bunch of other unforeseeable factors.
The amnesty provision is foreseeable, what the Blazers choose to do with it remains to be seen
Roy’s future as a Blazer could be measured in years, or months depending on that decision
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I said it here before and I'll say it again...
He ain’t as good as he once was, but he’s as good once as he ever was. Roy will command a double whenever he has the ball. He’s already won at least 2 games for us since he came back. And if we believe what he says (which we should since he has a history of complete honesty, sometimes to his own detriment) then he is feeling better every game. Now is not the time to look 5 years down the road, but rather 5 weeks. How many must wins can Roy pull out of the hat for us in the playoffs? Enough to win a series or 2? I was at the Denver game and it was surreal. I think that game will make a difference in the playoff seed we get. At the time it sure felt like a must win. The fact that Roy didn’t do much against the wiz doesn’t bother me at all, he’s not a Kevin Love style garbage time stat padder. When the game / season is on the line, #7 will be there with a full tank of gas.
"She fell in love with the drummer, another and another"
by Cap'n Crash on Mar 25, 2011 2:03 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Its sad that something like
Roy is better than Patty Mills is even published and argued about now. Oh for the Brandon Roy of one year ago.
































