Why it's all about...Minnesota? (And why it probably really isn't)

So for any fans who don't care whether the team scores the 5 or 6 seed, I'll save you the trouble:  you can stop reading.  For those who do, here's why it looks likely that the Blazers will end up with the six seed and not the five.

Blazers are "only" one game behind Denver.  But, Denver currently holds the tiebreaker over Portland based on having one less division loss, with one non-common division opponent remaining on the schedule...yes, Minnesota.  At home.  So we can assume that unless Minnesota manages to resemble a real basketball team on that particular date in April (the 9th to be exact), or unless Portland can win a game against a common opponent that Denver loses against (2 OKC games and one at Utah each), Denver effectively has a two game edge over Portland.  On the other hand, if Denver loses the Minnesota game somehow, Portland owns the next tiebreaker, conference record.  Portland currently has one less loss in conference games than Denver, and for Portland to make up the game they already trail Denver by in order to make the tiebreaker matter, Portland will have to have at least an equal conference record to Denver the rest of the way, since Denver has only one non-conference game left and Portland has none, so portland would necessarily have a better conference record.

So, bottom line, Denver's game against Minnesota likely determines whether a Denver/Blazer tie in the standings results in Portland as a five or a six seed.

If that's not already TMI, here's why it's likely not to matter.  Denver and Portland have five common games:

SA

OKC

@OKC

@UT

GS

Of the other six games each has left, three home and three road, the road games are comparable:

Denver has @LAL, @DAL and @SAC; Portland has @SA, @NO, and @GS.

But the home games strongly favor Denver:

Denver has MIN, WA and SAC; Portland has LAL, DAL and MEM.

So Portland has to either somehow make up two games despite a tougher schedule, or make up one game and count on Minnesota to beat Denver on the road in the next to last game of the season (or beat Utah or OKC where Denver loses).  Given the above, it seems unlikely Portland will pass Denver.  But then, that's why they play the games, right?