Blazers a lock for the playoffs?

by dogbert on Mar 15, 2011 1:35 PM PDT

I'm seeing the pundits saying that there is an 85% probability that the Blazers will make the playoffs. From what I've seen the last few weeks I'm not so sure given the difficulty of their schedule. Here is my totally unscientific prediction:

4 probable wins: Cleveland, Washington, GoldenState, @GoldenState

6 probable losses: Dallas, @L*kers, SanAntonio, @OKC, @SanAntonio, Dallas

Based on past history I'd guess they give away one of the probable wins and win one of the probable losses so of these two categories we get 4 wins.

That leaves 5 tossup games:

Philidelphia: they are pretty hot now, so I'd say 50% chance of a win

@NewOrleans: if Chris Paul is playing, 40%

OKC: we can't be swept can we? I'll give us a W here.

@Utah: we almost never win in Utah, but they are not the same team without DWill. 40%

L*kers: we got them into overtime earlier this year. I'd say 50% chance of a W

Memphis: If Memphis is our competition for #8, we gotta get a W here.

Of these tossup games I'm going to say we win 3 games

So that puts at 44-38

Let's look at Memphis, NewOrleans, and Phoenix after the jump.

Memphis 37-31 8 home, 6 road They are playing pretty well even without Rudy Gay.

7 probable wins: Indiana, Utah, GoldenState, Minnesota, Clippers, Sacramento, @Clippers

3 probable losses: @Boston, @Chicago, SanAntonio

4 tossup games

@ NewYork, @ NewOrleans , NewOrleans, @Portland

There 7 probably wins are very strong, and let's say they win 2 of their tossup games, and lose to Portland.

That puts them at: 46-36 ahead of the Blazers

New Orleans 39-30, 8 home, 5 road

2 probable wins: Indiana, Utah

3 probably losses: Boston, @L*kers, @Dallas.

8 tossup games: Phoenix, @Utah, @Phoenix, Portland, Memphis, Houston, Phoenix, @Memphis

So let's give them the 2 probable wins, and the possibly meaningless (for Dallas) game against Dallas and 4 of the 8 tossup games. That's 7 wins and puts them at 46-36 ahead of the Blazers.

Phoenix 33-32 8 home, 9 road

7 probable wins: GoldenState, @Clippers, Toronto, @Sacramento, Clippers, @Minnesota, Minnesota

7 probably losses: @L*kers, Dallas, OKC, @SanAntonio, @Chicago, @Dallas, SanAntonio

tossup games: @NewOrleans, NewOrleans, @NewOrleans

So let's give them the 7 probable wins, a meaningless(for SanAntonio) game against the Spurs, and two of the tossups.

That's 10 wins and puts them at 43-39.

If we see the kind of effort and skill we've seen in the last two games, and the difficulty of our tossup games, it doesn't seem too much of a stretch that we lose one more of those games leaving us at 43-39. We have the tiebreaker against Phoenix so they'd need one more win.

I suppose they could sweep NewOrleans but that would mean winning two road games.so I don't find it very likely. None of those games are back to back, although the last game is the 4th game in 6 nights, all on the road. The final road game is in Dallas and might be a meaningless game for Dallas, but not sure the Suns will have the legs to accept the gift.

I like our chances to squeak by Phoenix. I'm not sure I'm convinced by those 85% probability predictions.

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IMO, you should move @GoldenState into "tossup"

Portland historically plays very poorly in Oakland. Even when they’ve won, they’ve won ugly, and it’s rare.

by Timmay! on Mar 15, 2011 2:42 PM PDT reply actions

I agree

I guess I was trying to be optimistic. Lately it seems like any game is losable, even the ones that should be a sure thing. @Utah has never been a picnic either. I just have this sinking feeling that it is going to go down to the wire.

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Mar 15, 2011 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I was wondering why more Blazer fans aren't concerned about this

I’m a little nervous…

Blazers.

by Pelanderfunk on Mar 15, 2011 3:24 PM PDT reply actions

Not to speak for everyone, but I suspect most people are indeed a little nervous

It’s no secret we have a tough SOS after the All-Star break, and only a few games away from the 9th spot. The importance of every game ramps up from here, and the sting of a few previous losses (the 4 game East Coast Nov road trip, giving up games against OKC etc) are still being felt.

by Timmay! on Mar 15, 2011 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I said it all along if they dont get hot and win games against top teams in the 16 games left

they will not make it to the playoffs. If what you wrote comes out to be true then u can bet we wont make it.

by Eddie77 on Mar 15, 2011 4:03 PM PDT reply actions

Regarding Portland's current playoff probability, Justin Kubatko has them at an 86.8% chance and John ...

Hollinger has them at an 84.4% chance of making the postseason. Yet, even though a final record of 45-37 is the projected result, it’s very possible that the Trail Blazers could slide back a few games and maybe a ballclub like Houston can jump them. The Rockets are a bit more likely to make a late-season run than either Phoenix or Utah, with their four upcoming home games — which are against Charlotte, Boston, Utah, and Golden State — being of the utmost importance.

"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."

by AK1984 on Mar 15, 2011 4:19 PM PDT reply actions

Those methods are relatively pessimistic

Coolstandings.com give the Blazers a 92.9% chance as of today
http://www.coolstandings.com/basketball/basketball_standings.asp?sn=2010

by tingeyga on Mar 16, 2011 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions

We're a lock.

Why look at NO and Memphis when Phoenix is the only team that could “knock us out” of the playoffs, since they’re the only team that’s currently out of the playoffs? They would have to catch us to knock us out. Doesn’t matter what Memphis and NO do.

Phoenix went on a mini winning streak a few weeks ago, but look at the teams they were beating: Milwaukee, Golden State, Golden State, Utah, Utah, Toronto, Indiana, NJ, Milwaukee, Houston, with a couple home wins against good teams sprinkled in. Not anything to write home about. Phoenix isn’t a horrible road team, but with a 5 game road trip left with stops at San Antonio, Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas (all teams fighting for playoff seeding) and MN on the second night of a back to back (not easy considering the pace they play), I’d say they’re done.

We’re a lock and seeding is all that matters at this point. My gut tells me we hold onto the 6 seed.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Mar 15, 2011 10:26 PM PDT reply actions

my gut tells me

if we lose 1 or 2 of the games we should win or go 0-5 or 1-4 against those tossup games and don’t knock off one of the games against the elite teams to compensate we are going to be scrambling for the 8th seed. if phoenix gets on a hot streak or get some unexpected wins in meaningless games they could make it interesting. I think houston is too far behind in the loss column. they would have to win almost all of their winnable games to catch us.

tonight’s win against the mavs gives some wiggle room.

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Mar 15, 2011 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I just think you're reaching a bit.

Basically everything that could go wrong would have to go wrong for us to miss the playoffs. Even then, everything would have to go right for Phoenix. Sure, it could happen. Likely? Probable? No. Just play the percentages and we’ll be fine.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Mar 15, 2011 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm supremely confident

that the Blazers will win at least 10 more games. I don’t like to go into picking each game win or lose game by game as each game is treated entirely different not just because of the opponent but because of the situation. Who knows who could be or will be injured during the game or who is on a streak or who isn’t. These things factor into each and every game just as much as the physical opponent does. And based on recent experience the Blazers have managed to raise there level of play at the end of each of the last 2 seasons with a roster similar to the one we have now.

by maven on Mar 15, 2011 10:49 PM PDT reply actions

85% is far from a lock.

Are we 85%? Yes. Are we a lock? Heck no.

Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.

by pualo on Mar 15, 2011 11:31 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, Portland is basically a strong bubble team (e.g., Clemson).

"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."

by AK1984 on Mar 16, 2011 2:44 AM PDT up reply actions

there's also the fact that for some reason, blazers seem to win the games that they had no business of winning.

we play better with our backs against the wall.

Jeff Pendergraph:
FGM - 3
FGA - 111
Min - 30
Reb - 10

by Tofu Anonymous on Mar 16, 2011 12:03 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Which is why Portland has finsihed its last several seasons strong

Portland has not wilted down the strecth since we were a lottery team, regardless of our opponent. Sure we should expect a few frustrating losses but we can also expect a few exhilirating wins as well. That’s why they play the games and we watch.

by NWfan on Mar 16, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions

so we should be

a great playoff team. I know what you are talking about and have been thrilled by those upset wins. It’s those unexpected losses to weaker teams that makes me nervous. At this point I feel less comfortable counting on the upset wins like the last game, versus the stumbling losses like the Charlotte game.

As the season winds up the Blazers tend to get more focused, but then so do their opponents.

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Mar 17, 2011 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions

A team that beats Orlando and Miami and then loses to Charlotte and Atlanta...

…is way too erratic to predict with any real confidence, either way.

My gut tells me the Blazers will be solid down the stretch and make the playoffs comfortably, however.

They actually seem to play better against stronger teams, so the stronger schedule coming up may actually be to our advantage.

Portland Trail Blazers, Future World Champions 2011-2021.

by Majikj0n on Mar 16, 2011 10:16 AM PDT reply actions

My thoughts exactly...

With the last five games as wins against Orlando, Miami and Dallas, and losses against Charlotte and Atlanta, I say the tougher road could be perfectly suited for the Portland Trailblazers.

Add to that, going through a tough stretch to head into the playoffs gets a team mentally in that “every possession counts” mode. And Portland doesn’t have enough experience to flip a post-season switch yet. They need to be exhibiting playoff level basketball heading into the playoffs, and a tough schedule is the best way to bring that out in them.

by Rodney Gustafson on Mar 16, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions

We beat Portland, so that is a game in our favor, there

And you rate Phoenix/NO as a tossup, while only counting our chances at 40%.

Now all we need is the rest of the roster to get into "how can everybody help Nicco and Oden" mode. -- Oden Mad, Oden Smash! Sep 29, 2010 7:47 PM

by LaoTzu on Mar 16, 2011 1:49 PM PDT reply actions

Hollinger has us at 89% as of today

Keep in mind, the predictors like Hollinger’s essentially do this same exercise, except they use the season records and point differentials to determine odds of winning, and they repeat it 1000 times to generate a probability. This method should be more accurate than any human making guesses, because it gets all the contingencies right and because people don’t usually estimate odds very well.

The one potential drawback from the simulator method though is if the team (or another bubble team) is significantly different from this point on than it has been the rest of the season. If a team adds a star player, like Gerald Wallace, and he seems to be gelling, then their odds of reaching the playoffs are probably higher than the simulator predicts. If an important player gets hurt, OTOH, the simulator will be too optimistic.

But I think the team is playing near it’s best ball of the season right now, so the odds are pretty good.

by sanjait on Mar 16, 2011 5:41 PM PDT reply actions

NJ is an example

of a team that the calculators won’t accurately measure. Adding Deron Williams made them way better. Hollinger has them at 0.0% playoff odds, but being only 5 games back in the East, I’d say they probably have > than a 1/1000 chance.

by sanjait on Mar 16, 2011 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions

It isn't just that they are only 5 games back

they they need to leapfrog 4 teams to get into the 8th spot. That is another factor that will make it harder for the Nets to make the playoffs.

by tingeyga on Mar 16, 2011 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions

New Jersey isn't making the playoffs.

"They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory."

by AK1984 on Mar 19, 2011 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions

Hollinger's method puts more weight on recent games than games back in December

but for teams that made changes, it does take some time for those changes to work into the formula.

by tingeyga on Mar 16, 2011 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions

yeah, I agree

with you about Hollinger et. al’s methods being way more scientific than my gut. I guess I’m just a nervous fan watching us struggle through games like last week against Charlotte. If we do that a couple more times and Phoenix gets hot I can see us stumble out of the playoffs. It would have to be a combination of our stumbles and a really hot streak by Phoenix or Utah.

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Mar 17, 2011 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions