Let me start by saying I'm no salary cap expert and I welcome strong critiques of my assumptions. I'm throwing it out there because the Blazers salary position worries me when I look ahead. Cho is supposedly a salary cap wizard, and I have no insider knowledge. I just want to understand it better.
The headline statement is made with a number of assumptions that are not based in any fact as of yet. They are:
1.) B.Roy will never again be the player he was during the 1st 4 yrs of his NBA career and therefore will never be worth the 4 yr $56+ million left on his current deal
2.) The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will reintroduce the "Amnesty Clause". The Amnesty Clause grants teams a one-time exception to waive a player without paying any further luxury tax on the player's contract, regardless of how long or how rich the contract is. It was introduce as part of the 2005 CBA as a one-time use action. In 2005 the Mavs used this clause to avoid paying dollar for dollar luxury taxes on the 3 yr $51 mil left on M.Finley's contract. The Raptors also used it to avoid the same issue with the $11 mil left on A.Mourning's contract.
3.) The Blazers will pick up the $7.8 mil team option on A.Miller and the $8.8 mil qualifying offer on G.Oden
4.) There will not be a "Hard Salary Cap" in new CBA as that would be mind-bogglingly disruptive.
Here is the projected salary structure for the 2011/12 Blazers roster:
(source : http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm)
Roy 14.9 mil
LA 11.8 mil
Wallace 10.6 mil
Camby 9.2 mil
Miller 7.8 mil (team option)
Oden 8.8 Mil (qualifying offer)
Matthews 6.1 mil
Babbitt 1.7 mil
Williams 1.3 mil
Rudy 2.2 mil
Batum 2.15 mil
Johnson .78 mil
12 players under contract for a total of $77+ MILLION!!!
The current salary cap is around $58 mil. From what I've heard that is not going to go up significantly and is more likely to go down. (edited per request) The current luxury tax threshold is at $70 mi. Under the current CBA the blazers would be paying $7 million in luxury tax w/o signing any FA or accounting for draft picks needed to get to the 15 man roster.
The Blazers have an over-abundance of wing players and no team can afford a 15-19 million dollar player who plays 20-25 mins off bench. Thus Roy will very likley to get "amnesty claused" out of P-town.
Are we seeing the last of B.Roy in a Blazers uniform? Thoughts people? Solace?