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OKC post-trades thoughts. Vote.

Today's deadline was full of last minutes deals, the greatest surprise being the Boston/OKC trade in which Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson were traded from Boston to OKC for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. The Thunder also made another move, sending Morris Peterson and D.J. White to Charlotte for Nazr Mohammed.

The trades mean the Thunder are undoubtedly bigger and more rugged. Perkins in particular brings a no-nonsense game to a team lacking in the tough department, and Mohammed is a crafty vet at this point capable of holding his own in the paint.

The reaction from Boston fans hasn't been good, and many in the media seem to think that Boston GM Danny Ainge is waiving the white flag on this season. As you might expect, the Thunder are being hailed as legit contenders who are looking to win now by fans and media alike.

Here's how the inbound and outbound parts fared statistically so far this year (I'm going to keep it less advanced):

OUTBOUND

  •  
    • Jeff Green 15.2 pts, 5.6 rbs, 1.8 asts, 13 PER in 37 minutes as the starting PF (49 games)
    • Nenad Krstic 7.6 pts, 4.4 rbs, 0.4 asts, 12.6 PER in 21.7 minutes as the starting C (47 games)
    • D.J. White 2.8 pts, 2.3 rbs, 0.2 asts, 10.2 PER in 9.5 minutes as a backup big (23 games)
    • Morris Peterson 1.0 pts, 0.8 rbs, 0.3 asts, 1.7 PER in 5.8 minutes as a backup wing (4 games)

INBOUND

  • Kendrick Perkins 7.3 pts, 8.1 rbs, 0.8 asts, 10.2 PER in 26.1 minutes as a starting C (12 games)
  • Nate Robinson 7.1 pts, 1.6 rbs, 1.9 asts, 10.2 PER in 17.9 minutes as a backup wing (55 games)
  • Nazr Mohammed 7.3 pts, 4.9 rbs, 0.3 asts, 15.9 PER in 16.7 minutes as a backup C (51 games)

The Thunder seem to have a few options for their starting 5 now, and it may take a few weeks for the regular rotation to be settled, but here's a rough look at their depth chart:

Starting Point Guard: Westbrook. Maynor and Ivey as backups.

Starting Shooting Guard: Sefolosha. Harden, Cook, and Robinson as backups.

Starting Small Forward: Durant. Sefolosha and Harden as backups.

Starting Power Forward: Ibaka. Collison as backup.

Starting Center: Perkins. Mohammed. Mullens and Aldrich as backup.

Nothing should change much as far as production from Durant, Westbrook, or Sefolosha, and there's no reason to see much of a change from their backups, either. Collison's role also remains the same. My guess is a promotion for Ibaka into the starting PF role, which should net an increase in his stats with the increase in minutes (with 10 more minutes on average, maybe 4-5 more points and a couple boards more per game). Perkins is definitely a superior defender to Krstic, though it's either Nenad's advantage or a draw on offense. The addition of Mohammed adds that 2nd solid quality player to throw out there. If Ibaka can hit 15 per game and Perkins hits his average, the Thunders' points-from-starters are at what they were pre-trade and they're better defensively. Nazr's 7 points per game and defense end up being the big difference.

After taking this all into consideration (and being as objective as one can be as a fan of a divisional rival), it does seem that the Thunder should be better, maybe even significantly so. So why doesn't it feel like the proverbial cherry on top to me? Am I alone?

I expect the Thunder to make a decent run in the playoffs, but I did before the trade, too, and I don't really see them being so much better now that they're THE team to beat. To me they're a 3rd consistently-high-scoring-starter or big-time-6th-man away from being that team. How do you feel? Did they improve enough to be considered better than before? Are they the best the West has to offer, or are they still in that 2nd, 3rd, 4th best area? Can they Will they make it to the Finals? And, maybe most importantly, how do they stack up to the new look Blazers and the other teams in the West?

Poll
Let's talk playoffs. The Thunder will...
make it to the playoffs but peter out in Round 1.
26 votes
advance to the 2nd Round only to be defeated.
63 votes
lose in the Western Conference Finals.
37 votes
represent the West in the Finals but finish 2nd best.
7 votes
be crowned champions of the NBA.
0 votes

133 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 13 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Almost anything can happen in the playoffs

But I think they’re most likely going to beat whoever they face in the first round, and will be unlikely to make it out of the West; so, I’m saying a second round or WCF exit is probably going to happen.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Feb 24, 2011 10:35 PM PST reply actions  

That's a downright scary lineup.

With Durant and Westbrook scoring buckets, who needs Green floating? Now they’ve got bodies to man the middle and gobble boards, and Ibaka starting only helps them more. I was worried they’d finally get their C with their upcoming cap space, but this happened even sooner than expected. Get used to them being very very good. :(

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Feb 24, 2011 10:41 PM PST reply actions  

I'm not blown away by their moves

They definitely did help balance their roster, but have they jumped over LA or San Antonio? I don’t think so. I think at the end of the day they’re still sitting about where they’ve been in the West’s pecking order.

by JK47 on Feb 25, 2011 12:02 AM PST reply actions  

I told OKC fans that Cole Aldrich would be terrible. They thought he'd be great. I think this move

is pretty bad too. From a Blazers perspective, Kristic and Green hurt Portland.

If they didn’t have Ibaka this deal would be so bad. I think they did this because they think Ibaka is going to be something big for them in the playoffs.

Perkins doesn’t worry me at all. Boston won this trade. Ric Bucher always hypes up everything OKC does. This trade was nothing special.

by BRoyInThe4th on Feb 25, 2011 12:33 AM PST reply actions  

I don't see them as the new team to beat in the west

but I do think this trade made them better. I was never scared for the Blazers to play them in the playoffs before… Now with them getting bigger and the Blazers smaller that could be trouble…

by vullkem116 on Feb 25, 2011 7:09 AM PST reply actions  

Marginally better.

They’ve been so weak at center for so long that it seems like a bigger deal than it really is…

This should help them defensively but probably not offensively.

If you can limit either Westbrook or Durant you have an excellent shot of beating them.

by SaveOden on Feb 25, 2011 7:22 AM PST reply actions  

^this

The way to beat OKC hasn’t changed. However, their interior defense has improved quite a bit. It used to be that all you had to worry about with OKC was finding a way to slow Westbrook or Durant. Now you will ALSO need to find a way to get your post players scoring effectively against Perkins and Ibaka, with Mohammed coming off the bench. They are tougher, and better defensively than they were before this trade.

The makeup of the team is still role players surrounding their top 2. And that’s a very good formula, as history has proven. I do think this makes OKC more of a threat NEXT year than say the aging Spurs. Who knows how well Dallas will stick around with their age as well. But the Lakers are still much better for at least the next two years than the Thunder are.

As far as how they match up with Portland, if Camby is playing, Aldridge will score with ease inside. If Oden is playing, Aldridge will score with ease inside. Portland has already matched up well with OKC in the past, and now the Blazers have another elite defender to throw at Durant. Miller has abused Westbrook in the past, and both Batum and Matthews will defend him at times too. I would LOVE to match up against them in the playoffs this year AND next, providing that either Camby or Oden are on the court.

by Rodney Gustafson on Feb 25, 2011 8:34 AM PST up reply actions  

i also would like an okc playoff matchup.

for one, it means that we finished off the year strong and got to the 4th or 5th spot.

okc is the only team they could face with less playoff experience.

my only fear would be that it might hurt worse to lose to them than some of the other teams given the whole oden vs. durant and that they stole our status as the next big thing.

but oh well.

by SaveOden on Feb 25, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Harden probably moves into the starting lineup too.

One of the hidden reasons why Sefolosha kept starting is that Green and Krstic were amongst the worst rebounding starting bigs in the league. By starting them together, the team needed rebounds from the SF and SG spots, and Sef is an outstanding rebounding wing. But Sef is an offensive liability.

With Perk (good but not great rebounder) and Ibaka (very good rebounder) taking the place of Green and Krstic, that makes it much easier to move Harden into the starting lineup. I love Perk, and I think this is an outstanding move by them. This doesn’t make them the favorites, but it puts them at least with Dallas in the second tier behind Lakers and San Antone, and they will match up very well against either LA or SA.

by howlingfantods on Feb 25, 2011 8:53 AM PST reply actions  

it should be interesting to see perkins in a new situation.

it’s possible that playing next to the big 4 made him look better than he was.

it’s also possible that it held him back and he might have more game than we know.

aaaaand, it’s possible that okc just joined the “season ending injury to starting center” club.

by SaveOden on Feb 25, 2011 8:58 AM PST reply actions  

If Perkins is healthy

this trade puts them over the top in my opinion. They were just a step behind the Lakers/spurs/mavs before this trade, the main thing holding them back was a defensive front court, as Green and whoever they put at center were undersized and out of position. Getting Perkins and moving Green solves all of that, Serge is a good player they needed to start, which he now can. Their starting 5 of Westbrook, Thabo, Durant, Serge and Perkins has loads of offense and now has the defensive chops to hang with those top teams. They must be put into the discussion of the teams who could come out of the west this year, and more importantly, in the next 2 years as they get more experience in the playoffs.

by usmcr3049 on Feb 25, 2011 9:03 AM PST reply actions  

not just the next two years. remember that the projected starting lineup

of Russ/Harden/Durant/Serge/Perkins features two guys that are 22, two guys that are 21, and one 26 year old. Four out of five guys are still college aged. And Presti still has cap room.

by howlingfantods on Feb 25, 2011 9:20 AM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't be surprised

if Perkins went down with injury for an extended time soon here. He looks like he might be showing signs of compensating for his previous injury in the WCF.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

by poorwebguy on Feb 25, 2011 9:03 AM PST reply actions  

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