Trading Blazers: Would, Wouldn't, and Can't
by Dave on Feb 21, 2011 12:55 AM PST
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PrintThis week will be dominated by trade talk around the league, including in Portland. Some balk at the prospect of trades (or even talking about them) citing loyalty to players. While I find repeated, unrealistic (read: homer-tastic) trade suggestions annoying I am not opposed to moving players nor to speculating about same. Consider: every trade brings new players in return who then become beloved Blazers just like the guys who departed. Rosters are perpetually in motion. The question isn't whether we'll see a Blazer trade but when.
Given that, knowing the inbox and site will be flooded with trade suggestions and questions, I figured we should open the week by looking at Portland's players and assessing who could be part of a deal, who shouldn't be, and which players are just plain "untradeable" right now. The caveat is that you can't talk about trading away a player without knowing who's coming in return, an issue we'll not address in this post. But for each player assume that Portland was offered what they perceived as a good deal. Obviously anybody on the roster would be available for LeBron James, but we're not talking pie in the sky here, just decent relative value in an area of need. If made a tempting offer, should the Blazers consider including these players and why?
LaMarcus Aldridge--Wouldn't
I don't consider Aldridge a sacred cow based on his last couple months of play. He's not untouchable. But at this point Portland would never get an offer that would increase production or value over what Aldridge is giving. You could throw out Carmelo Anthony, Devin Harris, Danny Granger...the biggest names mentioned all year. None of them would improve Portland's prospects in the short or long run more than the current LaMarcus Aldridge does. If the Blazers were to consider trading him they'd have to cycle around to the next crop of candidates which means waiting at least until summer. Portland will need to hang up on anyone who calls at the moment.
Nicolas Batum--Would
Remember the qualifying condition here: that the Blazers got an attractive offer relative to the value of the player. That's possible with Batum in a way it isn't with Aldridge. The Blazers value him highly so the proposal would have to be good, but if they were offered a guy with 20 ppg production to alleviate their dependence on Brandon Roy's health, they'd have to think hard. There's zero reason to consider trading Batum outside of that, though.
Marcus Camby--Would
This would hurt, especially this season. There's no way the Blazers replace Camby's rebounding and shot blocking over the long haul. But there's also no way the Blazers contend for a title this year with or without Camby. He's signed for one more season and that's likely to be at least partially locked out. He's deep into his 30's and he has a history of injuries. Plus several contending teams would value him. You have to leave his name on the table and listen to offers.
Rudy Fernandez--Would
This was considered a no-brainer over the summer. Rudy's been playing quite well but he's not valuable enough to remove from talks. The Blazers can't afford to lose much more three-point shooting, which is the main issue.
Wesley Matthews--Wouldn't
Here's another guy who ultimately could end up on the "would" list but whose combination of salary, value to the league, and production for the Blazers make an equitable trade all but impossible. With Batum you can speculate on drawing another small forward. Trading Matthews for a shooting guard wouldn't make sense with Roy on the roster. Moving him for a player at another position wouldn't make sense with Roy's health issues. It just doesn't seem to work right now.
Andre Miller--Would
I'll take some flak for this, but Miller is in a similar situation to Camby. I've loved his play this year. His contributions have been spot-on perfect. The Blazers will not find another point guard who will fit the way 'Dre does in 2010-11. But he's on a short-term contract, he's older, and if the Blazers could get somebody to help them in, say, 2012-13 they'd need to consider that deal.
Greg Oden--Can't
Doesn't make sense at this point, even if such a deal could be done. Talent, reward, health, and value don't match. Nobody would make a reasonable offer.
Joel Przybilla--Would
His contract situation is favorable for a trade, as are his future prospects with the team.
Brandon Roy--Can't
Two years ago this would have been a "can't" for talent and contributions. Now this is a "can't" because of contract. Who's going to take him on at that price over such a long term? Both the Blazers and the league need to see what Roy is yet capable of before they start talking trades.
Luke Babbit, Dante Cunningham, Armon Johnson, Sean Marks, Patrick Mills, Elliot Williams--Would
These are mostly no-brainers. The Blazers aren't in a position to be unnaturally attached to any of them. This team doesn't need better 10th men if it can get better starters by throwing in these guys. Williams is the only wild card of the group, having not played outside of practice but having wowed people in it. But even then, you don't go with a guy you're taking a chance on if you can get a guy to bank on.
Part of the fun of exercises like this is comparing opinions so offer challenges and different perspectives below.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I’m posting a much longer winded version of what you wrote re: Andre Miller tomorrow sometime Dave. I agree whole-heartedly. Love ya Andre, but you’re getting long in the tooth. Can’t continue playing at this level forever. The expiring contract you’re on far outweighs (from an asset standpoint) what you can contribute to the team. Hard for me to agree on trading Batum however. I don’t think I’m too high on him either. I just have this feeling that he’s about to have a LaMarcus Aldridge-like season next year. At some point a light switch will go off in his head and he will be Portland’s #3 guy going forward. Would rather see him in red & black instead of blossoming with someone else. Though I guess if you would get a proven talent in some kind of package, I could buy into a trade. If the Blazers could land someone like Danny Granger, I’m all in.
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
I really wish that Indiana would just start miserably tanking so they would give up on their playoff hopes and look towards the future.
Then we swoop in wit salary relief, Batum, a couple of picks and some cash to make it all better, all they would have to do is give up Granger.
yuck
Batum has an overall efficiency that is down this year, compared to Granger’s current numbers – but Batum’s TS% is only a couple points lower than Grangers, and Batum has better assist numbers, lower turnovers, and better rebounding rate.
Plus, Batum is regarded as a versatile defender while Granger is regarded as someone that needs to make a commitment to defense.
Finally, Granger makes $10M+.
Triple, quadruple yuck.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Feb 21, 2011 1:28 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
rec blacknoiseNW
I personally wouldn’t trade Batum for Iguodala or Granger straight up; not because they aren’t better, but because their upsides have peaked as their salaries provide way more detriment than benefit. Talk about blowing up the payroll and Batum’s performance is really not that much of a downgrade considering his defense.
if you could trade a 22 yr old Nic Batum straight across for a 27 yr old Andre Iguodala
I’m not sure how you say no to that
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Feb 21, 2011 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Oh quite easily!
No way I’m taking on $13M for the next 3 1/3 years for a 17.8 PER player who has probably peaked in terms of production. Yes, he does a lot of things well, and he’s good defensively, but he’s not the type of person I’d devastate the payroll for + give a couple 1st round picks for. His production vs. benefit ratio is seriously disjointed at the present time.
Definitely not a Batum homer
But we have to be realistic here. Even if you could get A.I. for Batum, and maneuver an already challenged payroll situation to fit A.I. in, there would be no money left over for a credible C. We’d gets pounded inside on the glass and with opponent interior scoring. We need a to spend on interior players not wings.
with the Roy situation the payroll is already in trouble
Our roster, as it stands at this moment, has 3 (4 if you count LMA) credible centers on it. If you wanted to change your center landscape go ahead and do it but it can be independent of this scenario and would revolve around Oden more than anything. I also didn’t mention picks. I’m saying strictly from a talent/upside perspective.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
this is it in a nutshell
My only quibble might be Mathews – but only because I believe there is a chance that another team might be willing to overpay.
For instance, if Philadelphia was willing to trade Iguodala for Mathews and a 1st round pick – that might be the kind of deal that works for both sides. I expect a general “Philly would never do that” reaction – but this is a trade that is at least conceivable due to the cost savings for Philadelphia and that fact that Mathews shoots better, is younger, and is developing a rep.
However, even this extreme case might not actually be to Portland’s benefit. Mathews isn’t as capable as Iguodala offensively or defensively – but his cost/benefit ratio is better – and as mentioned – Portland can ill afford an less 3-point shooting (or shooting in general). Iguodala would bring better rebounding and assist ratio – but I find it interesting that Mathews has a high usage than Iguodala.
What it boils down to is that there is at least a conceivable trade for Mathews – even if the above analysis supports the idea that it would be hard to get value for Mathews – even with a player like Iguodala.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
We must also be in the perceived concept on Matthews
He is a sophomore, playing like a vet. At his rate of growth, his workaholic attitude, and cheap contract in comparison to somebody that is of equal value or slight better would you be willing to give up on the idea that he may be superstar material and with BRoy’s injury a looming factor would it be wise to gamble?
hg
and don't forget his durability.
It’s nice to have a starter @ the 2 who’s body is (seemingly) anatomically correct for the rigors of NBA basketball.
His ceiling probably is no where near BRoy’s but his ability to stay out on the floor and contribute is huge. 2-3 years from now and all of WM’s inconsistencies will be all but forgotten.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
I am in the no trade camp
not because I do not see value in it generally speaking, I just don’t see any moves that actually make us better given the Roy situation. Given that fact and the fact that considering how well the team clicks GIVEN the Roy and Oden situations, well I say stick with the fan friendly winning product.
If there was a move out there that made sense when you look at the deal on paper I might be happy with that, I just do not see one that does anything like that, at least for the regular rotation guys. Nobody is going to give up a better 3-point shooter than Rudy for Rudy for example.
Anybody we could get for a matthews would push us way way into the luxury tax.
There are very few guys than can give us the rebounding and high post passing of a Camby, and those that can will not be given up by anyone that has those needs already.
There are about 5 maybe 6 point guards that could bring anything like Miller does to the table, and none of them are going anywhere. And a more injury prone Devin Harris likely has the exact same shelf life as Miller does so I don’t see the point in that deal.
I suppose if you could turn Batum and Pryz into a 20+ ppg guy maybe you consider it, but again I do not see where that guy comes from, plus you get back to the luxury tax issue. I don’t imagine Allen would mind paying well into the tax if he felt it would put the Blazers over the top on a championship run, but with the Roy Oden situation that is not where we are at right now.
Getting younger for getting youngers sake is not the be all end all either, the team plays more like a team now with the veteran leadership we have, it is not a bad thing for our young talent to learn from these guys.
Just my two cents. All I know is that any deals made at this point should really make sense, All I know is I am not terribly in the mood to start moving backwards for any type of “rebuilding” as the rumors have it.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
by PDXBuckeye on Feb 21, 2011 1:50 AM PST reply actions 8 recs
2nd this.
There are about 5 maybe 6 point guards that could bring anything like Miller does to the table, and none of them are going anywhere. And a more injury prone Devin Harris likely has the exact same shelf life as Miller does so I don’t see the point in that deal.
Getting younger for getting youngers sake is not the be all end all either, the team plays more like a team now with the veteran leadership we have, it is not a bad thing for our young talent to learn from these guys.
Hope Cho agrees. He will regret trading Miller for Harris mid-season. If Harris is better than he SEEMS TO BE (frequent niggling injuries, moodiness, and from what I saw in the game against NJ…not that GOOD) if it has to be done..fine..BUT NOT MID-SEASON.
I’d rather keep Andre period. Think he will continue without a down turn for at least 2 years…
I see them as grey.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
you can't put too much weight on one game
and I’m really surprised how poor the picture is that we paint of Devin Harris as a basketball player. If we swapped Dre for Harris I wouldn’t expect a dropoff and I wouldn’t expect LMA to be noticably less effective. Moving forward I’d rather have our core be Harris-Wes-Nic-LMA-Oden than the same group with Dre instead of Harris. I do understand the injury perspective though, and I’m not saying this from the perspective that I want Dre to be moved, I just think that we haven’t done justice to Devin Harris the basketball player in our assessment of this potential swap.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Feb 21, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
He's also been misused in NJ
I read on espn a month or two ago that avery johnson has been playing and treating him like a rookie, leading to his mediocre stats and rumored moodiness. He was very impressive at wisconsin and with the mavericks, and has been an all star. I’m not sure I would trade miller for him, but we should recognize that he’s very talented and nate mcmillan tends to bring the best out of his players. I think he’d be better here than he has been with the nets.
I have shared many of these views. Is a team really going to trade young players...
That have talent and WILL develop into key contributors or are you going to get projects? It is likely the latter. You’d have to really like a project player to move Miller or Camby for a piece that might never be a key contributor to the team. All the “stand pat” talk is really fans saying they don’t want this type of move. I agree.
On the other hand, Devin Harris intrigues me. I absolutely coveted him as a player while he was in Dallas. He has been less impressive and injury prone in NJ. The tone on BE has clearly been anti-Harris, but it was the same when the rumors for Conley were circling. He can’t do this or that! He’s no better than what we have! Well, as it turns out, he’s a whole lot better than most people gave him credit for and would be a great piece on this team. Could Harris turn out that way? I don’t know, but it shouldn’t surprise any of us if he did.
The deals that everyone on BE love almost never happen. I think we all loved the Camby trade last year. That’s an exception. When you give up talent, some aren’t going to like the return. Cho has to make those tough decisions. If there is something out there that is not a high-risk project, like Harris, and Cho is convinced it makes us better… make that move!
by 52therim on Feb 21, 2011 6:18 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe on the Harris deal
but the production is almost identical to millers and he does not bring the bonuses miller does, posting up and lob passing.
M<iller probably has 4 good seasons left in him, will harris hold up as long? The blazers should not give up one of the healthy ones!
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
by PDXBuckeye on Feb 21, 2011 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Harris is a better shooter
not great, but better. He’s also quicker and less strong. They are actually quite different in terms of style of play. I’m for a Harris trade, though my favorite idea is trading for Sessions without parting with Miller so that our PG transition is less abrupt.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
by GMan83201 on Feb 21, 2011 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
sessions is a cancer to his team and the league
to quote kevin garnett. there’s a reason the bucks let him walk and the twolves sent him to cleveland for very little and its not just the twolves’ ineptitude. he’s a capable scorer and can dribble, but thats about it. definitely doesn’t make players around him better. I was happy to see him leave milwaukee (i’m a bucks fan too).
Agree
Ut the only Ayer I’d move is Joel and that’d be with a big juicy tear n my eye. This team as is could do some damage IF (that’s a big one) Brandon and Marcus can add to the chemistry that’s building now. And if our adversaries have to endure a fraction of our injury misfortune something really fun could happen.
by doomsdaymachine on Feb 21, 2011 6:56 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed completely
The upside of the injury adversity is players that would have seen little or no action has gotten more PT then they had hoped for. Patty is better and stronger, Rudy blossomed, Dante (DC2011) with his mask and away game mouth piece looks to gain consistency from the PT. those are the positives that won’t be taken away when Camby and BRoy returns and both,Camby and BRoy, have and will bring consistency in play and consistency in leadership that will add flavor to the growing chemistry, and hopefully consistency in playing time with lack of new injury.
You can’t give Dre enough credit for the part he brings to the table of keeping the young gun’s focused and making them better. Can Harris bring that. I don’t know and I don’t think adding another injury prone player is in our best interest right now for no more extra that he could give us. as in speed versus durability and that would be the extra that is being pushed by uptempo addicts.
Hg
hg
I think people also don't understand that
Andre Miller would be an ideal backup for this team when his starter days are over. The man wants to keep playing, and when the time comes to move him to the bench he would be a nice asset there. How many teams have a pure PG on the bench.
trading Miller and taking on a detrimental contract from a payroll perspective (Outlaw) is a seriously bad idea. Why not just keep Miller and use the $28M you save not taking on Outlaw’s onerous contract and put it towards getting an impact PF/C with Pryz’s contract set to expire?
by zeusmith on Feb 21, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think people also don't understand that
Andre Miller would be an ideal backup for this team when his starter days are over. The man wants to keep playing, and when the time comes to move him to the bench he would be a nice asset there. How many teams have a pure PG on the bench.
trading Miller and taking on a detrimental contract from a payroll perspective (Outlaw) is a seriously bad idea. Why not just keep Miller and use the $28M you save not taking on Outlaw’s onerous contract and put it towards getting an impact PF/C with Pryz’s contract set to expire?
I think that if Cho is going to make any kind of move to improve this team, it will one for the long term.
He used the line about having to do something you’ve never done before to achieve something you’ve never done.
To me this means he’s looking to trade all the veteran guys we can to stock up on picks or younger players. I think they are going to be moves fans hate right now, but years down the line they’ll be thanking him if it works out.
It’s going to hurt at first, but it is inevitable if we want to go far in the playoffs this next decade. I’m on board if he does pull the trigger, but don’t do anything half hearted. Either leave the team alone, or trade Camby, Miller, and Pryzbilla.
I’ll be glad when the trade deadline passes.
we just came through that process
I don’t think we need to go through it again.
If they start out with that approach we are talking years of bad basketball again.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Two wouldn'ts, two can'ts, and everyone else is up for a deal.
I respect that opinion. You are definitely gearing toward and setting your sights on a Championship, as we all should arguably be doing. But I would feel direct pain to the place where my eyeballs meet my brain if this team lost the mystical characters Miller the Playmaker and Nic the Unique.
I’m afraid of the product I’d see on the court, even as I focus on the deficiencies of Miller and Batum. I like what I’m seeing as far as scrap. I appreciate the notion but how much better can the Trail Blazers get in the next three days?
Still, trading away Andre would give Super LaMA the impetus to grow again, possibly making him even stronger? Super DUPER LMA? Scary thought.
Mmm
Much of LAs beasting has been served up by Dre.
by doomsdaymachine on Feb 21, 2011 6:58 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
People said the same thing about A'm'a'r'e' with Nash
Now, Felton isn’t exactly chopped liver, but there is much to be said for the idea that good players are capable of shooting high percentages independent of the quality of their teammates. I’m not saying that it’s the whole story, but LA is good because LA is good in his own right. Andre is involved in LA being able to perform at a high level, but he is not a necessity.
This team is way better with Dre on the roster, and he deserves credit for a great deal of the team’s success, but he should not be given too much credit for LA’s individual success.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Feb 21, 2011 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
then we need to get Felton...or a player as good as Felton...=WAY BETTER THAN HARRIS....
Camby also lob passes to LMA…so take away two sources of lobs….
I actually think Harris is better than Felton.
Better defense (I think?), and a lot of Felton’s numbers are inflated due to the tempo in NYK. Though Felton is used to playing with an athletic PF who loves lob passes…
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Amare got to that point with the help of Nash
LaMonster could use more time with Miller IMO.
I just see Harris as no real upgrade. I see the same shelflife as a starter honestly.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
All I know is that Cho and Company better not trade
LMA. Everyone else should be discussed but try their best not to give up Batum or Matthews.
I just hope that we can get rid of Roy’s contract in the summer by way of either a retirement or the union talks. If they have to force a lockout then fine as long as we can legally terminte Roy’s contract and clear the cap space otherwise the future won’t be all that bright.
Sounds about right, Dave.
I like the caveat about getting good value in return for Nic, and I would say the same about Rudy—they’re both important pieces in the current team, but, yes, as much as I like them both, they are far from irreplaceable and if we can get some good pieces in return, I’m not opposed to letting them go.
Andre Miller--Would
The big question would be, which other team can use him? It would have to be purely for salary-cap relief, OR to a team that’s contending this year but has a weakness at point guard and wants to rent him. That would be Orlando, Miami and L.A., period.
(Here’s an idea: Miller for Turkoglu! Yay!)
Miami and LA
Don’t have weaknesses at PG, because hey use the Point forward in their offense. Only Orlando does of the contenders, and Atlanta.
"Miller is in a similar situation to Camby"
Disagree.
It is true that Camby has a history of injuries,Andre not.He is an Iron man.He is reliable more than any other.Regardless of age, he has a few more good years at the same level.The experience is as much important as the talent.
Basically for me, no one is untouchable.There just doesn’t seem to be any move out there that makes sense.
by prostofen on Feb 21, 2011 6:18 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Agree
Andre has a lot in the tank and tires are still good.
by doomsdaymachine on Feb 21, 2011 6:59 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
that's debatable
defense matters – and he is beginning to show cracks in the armor
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Feb 21, 2011 8:24 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
admittedly - defense is a difficult metric to sample
but Andre has traditionally had good numbers in defensive +/-, running about 3 points better when on the court vs. off (previous two seasons) based on unadjusted defensive +/-. This season, the team is better on defense when Miller sits.
These numbers are subject to all sorts of rationale – but the numbers certainly aren’t surprising considering Miller’s age.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Feb 21, 2011 8:47 AM PST up reply actions
Miller's age has nothing to do with it
I don’t see him as being any slower this year than previous years. He came into camp in great shape, and his individual defense metrics will be in range with his 7 year average. Will is start to break down next year or the year after? Probably, but as a longtime Miller watcher, I’m not seeing that yet.
Andre's defensive +/- is negative for the first time (ever?)
that is the definition of a crack in the armor – and if it isn’t age related, then what is it?
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Feb 21, 2011 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
I wonder if playing zone has anything to do with this
He looks the same to me, and his DWS is the same. Interesting.
measuring defense is tough to do
DWS uses statistical methods to ration points given up to all the players on a team – whereas unadjusted +/- is a simple counting stat that doesn’t allocate responsibility (doesn’t try to compensate Andre for the failings of his teammates).
Because of the difficulty in assigning team performance to individual players, I can’t make a definitive argument that Andre is a worse defender this year – but I can say that in previous years, Andre’s stats weren’t affected like they are this year.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Feb 21, 2011 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Well, al i can say is that i haven't seen a difference
And because there hasn’t been any offensive deterioration, I wouldn’t think there would be much defensive deterioration either. If there has been, it’s been slight IMo and not enough to make a real difference. but you could be right.
He dishes out at least as much as he takes scoring wise
and with a guy like Camby back to play free safety when Dre’s man steps around him…
Clyde the Glide says: Everybody listen.
It takes all types of players to make a team, If you went out and got all shooters then there is not enough Basketballs to go around. If you got all bigs, there is not enough room in the paint. His input is that we need a certain talent from each and every player. Therefore trading just for the stat line is not always wise, Although you must remember I am not a stats man so i may be a little bias. I look at more of the way a player fits then what he has done in the past.
Batum is not quite there yet, but he plays great D and realizes that he can’t be hot every night so he minimizes his bad nights by deferring his shooting to the hot hand and becomes a facilitator, plays tough D and takes his shot when it is needed. Dre is somewhat of the same, he sets up the offense and makes others better then he shoots when needed. Many players of the same caliber of Nic and Dre, also demands touches and shooting, even if they are not hot.
Everybody is questioning BRoy and his ability to play now. I think he will learn to adjust, but the down side of BRoy’s last few games came as the result of poor shooting and when his shot wasn’t falling he kept shooting regardless. There is a difference in shooting yourself out of a slump and losing the game then to admitting that your shot is not there at that given time. This is the value of Batum. If his shots falling watch out, but if it isn’t falling and Rudy’s or Wesley’s is then he becomes a great facilitator.
So, I am in the Cho, sit on your hands until summer camp.
hg
Shoot for the Moon.....Win a championship........
We’ve been to the moon and won the ring in 76…both before most of you were born. And then what happened? Back on Earth….. no ring, living on wish. So whats more important really?…living on the wish or living the now?…and which will consume most of our time? Deal Dre and Canby for what? Late first round picks that do what ?..kill the now for a wish? I know ,I know, it’s our nature to shoot for the moon. But if we stay on Earth and pay attention to the now, anything is possible..{ the 76 team was a 500 club}. There are deals we can make that won’t kill the now. But things “Get Better” with a greater focus, not a bigger wish.
We must endeavor to persevere.
by Supercourse on Feb 21, 2011 7:05 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure what you are saying
Is “shooting for the moon” standing pat or making risky moves? How do we “pay attention to the now?”
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Don't forget you can shoot for the moon while playing for the now
With the players we have, and the abilities of our players giving them support, loyalty, and trust may be the difference in winning a series not the added if’s.
Therefore I say lets shoot for the moon with the the Blazers force we have now.
hg
Good analysis, Dave
I would, however, suggest that Mills might actually be a “Can’t”. Because of his contract situation, Mills has veto power over any trade.
by Storyteller on Feb 21, 2011 7:45 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
then an now...
Sad that Roy has had his reason for “cant” go from value to contract……imagine bringing that up 2 yrs ago…uhghhgh.
by BigDaddy72 on Feb 21, 2011 8:07 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Valuing the 'Here and Now...'
For the last decade, Blazer fans have bemoaned our inability to get that superior point guard, that quintessential team quarterback. And now that we have him??…A significant portion of the fan base is tripping over themselves trying to develop trade scenarios so that we ‘can get younger’…Sheesh! Several posters have declared that Batum is off-limits because they have a ‘feeling’ about him. I’m certainly not denigrating that view point (since I happen to share it), but there is no ‘feeling’ involved in the process of evaluating Andre Miller.
He is a flat out team master mechanic – whacking that unbalanced inside-outside game in the first quarter with his magical basketball rhythm stick (What, Aldridge hasn’t touched the ball in 4 minutes? Here’s a lob for ya LA…), squirting a little offensive juice into the gears in the waning minutes of the 4th (OK. We need to go inside: Derek Rose – Would you mind terribly if I ball faked you with 5 seconds left on the shot clock?…). This guy is a marvel. Yeah he’s 34. The same 34 year old who gave up his 632 consecutive game streak in order to instruct Blake Griffin to play nice…The same 34 year old who has a surprising number of years left because he plays basketball with his brain instead of his vertical leap…
His short term contract is problematic? Let’s rectify that by giving him an extension this summer.
STAY WITH DRE!!!
by pdxcharlie on Feb 21, 2011 7:59 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Oden is very tradeable in my book.
We don’t know if he’s going to accept the QO, which means we don’t know what we’re going to pay him, and (best of all) we still don’t know if he can play. Luckily, nobody knows so there is still interest out there.
If there is an opportunity to turn the perceived value of Oden into actual value on the court, I don’t see how you could turn that down.
Stealth > Wealth
I know we've been "letting the cake bake"
for about 4 years already, but why not keep going. Look where it’s got us…
first round playoff loss, season ending injuries, first round playoff loss, more season ending injuries…
I believe that at least half of Batum, Mills, Dante, Babbitt and company will become all-stars if we just sit and wait. Sure you can’t see it now, but that’s what I see through my blazer 3-goggles.
So let’s let the cake bake for another 4 years. I think if you add in a little magic fairy dust we will turn into a championship contender just by sticking with this roster.
Look guys, not saying there is a good trade out there, but how can you be opposed to making trades to a team that is likely a 6th-8th seed? I think every option should be on the table to improve this team.
If no trades are out there, then you don’t make any trades. But you can’t take the option off the table just because ‘Dre is playing great or you really like Batum’s potential. If you have a chance to get better in the long-term you take it even it hurts the team this year. Of course you have to be sure that it’s going to make us even better in the long run. Whatever gotta go.
If your only metric of success is a championship then, yes, this team is an abject failure.
On the other hand, if somewhere in that quest for championship nirvana, you wouldn’t mind watching some really enjoyable and inspiring basketball, then you could do a lot worse than this team…
I think people tend to overvalue ‘make us better in the long run’.
I'm for building for today
Whatever makes us better right now…at this moment. Bulk the bench up a little, get the starters some rest each game and roll the dice.
We could spend another 20 years trying to put together a “contender” but the truth is if the formula were so simple there would be more than 3 or 4 teams with most of the championships.
If you want to follow the real formula then sell off all our young guys and swap them for vets because those are the teams that are actually “contending”.
The danger, at this moment, is that we’ve found something special and we’re going to break it. Maybe these guys don’t have what it takes to contend. Let’s get them some bench help and find out…
This ^
Like I’ve been arguing, the Western conference is more vulnerable than it’s been in many years. The old paradigm is breaking down. Duncan/Ginobelli, Nowitzki/Nash, Bryant/Odom are slowly breaking down. Dallas went into a horrendous slump when Nowitzki missed games earlier this year, and LA just lost back-ti-back in Charlotte and Cleveland. We’ve beaten San Antonio 7 of the last 9 times, including handily by 13 points on Feb 1. We’re 22-11 in our last 33 games despite missing 2 starters.
And unlike the older paradigm, we have players on the upswing. Batum hasn’t progressed as fast as some would like, but he’s a potential AS. LMA has emerged into a Top 5-7 PF. We$ is still improving and showed us many times he can be a solid second option. Miller is still playing great, and his value non-longterm contract is actually a bonus not detrimental.
Could Roy come back as a impact sixth man? Can we add another We$-type acquisiton over the summer? Will GO still be with the team? yes, we’ve got a couple of need reuirements right now, but I think most people undervalue Portland’s playoff prospects going forward. The overwhelming assumption is that we should build for the next 5 years because we won’t win now; I don’t agree with that. I think we should make a push now, moreso in 11-12’ because this pieces are there.
Cho should be looking for that strategic acquisition that can lift this team to a new level, not getting rid of the pieces that make this team work. If there’s an obvious upgrade that makes sense then fine, but trading Miller for Harris while taking on a terrible contract in outlaw is NOT the type of thing Cho should be doing. At the very minimum, Cho should not be making any wholesale changes to the roster until we see what Roy and GO can give us. That’s why with the lockout at hand, and too many wildcards at play, and with our great team performance of late, I wait until next year to pull the trigger. For example, if Roy continues to be injured and ineffective, then I’d feel more comfortable knowing this team might not be able to win, and then look to trade off pieces. There’s too much potential upside and our team performance is too good to make wholesale changes now (unless for CLEAR winning trades).
I'm going to be the guy who says if you can get Brandons contract off the books by using Batum, while bringing back someone who can put up similar numbers..
20ppg 5rpg 1blk and play decent D. we do it.
without question, I love roy, but his contract vs. what he’s going to give don’t match anymore, and we need some production for those numbers.
The Faith don't panic, the Faith freaks out, burns out small farms and villages in the name of the Faith.
Who do we trade for them?
Igoudala sounds the closest to me.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
:D make it so.... but iggy don't drop 3's like they do, but we'd be playing Rudy (assuming we keep em) more....
Idk it’s complicated for sure, I’m hoping Cho hits a home run in anycase, but I’m afraid they’re just going to sacrafice bunt down the 3’rd base line, and hope to just get the runner at first to second, :D
The Faith don't panic, the Faith freaks out, burns out small farms and villages in the name of the Faith.
Agree almost completely. I wouldn't trade Camby at this point, since I don't see an available replacement and we have no depth at C.
At best we could hope to acquire Nazr Mohammed next offseason as an unrestricted free agent for our MLE (if it still exists). That would indeed be something to consider to add depth, but not INSTEAD of Camby. Gasol and Nene (also would be an UFA in the summer so we couldn’t match even if we trade for him now) are not coming here for that kind of money. Perkins is likely to re-sign in Boston. And that’s about it in terms of real centers except for our very own Gregory Wayne Oden who Cho has to decide what to do with.
Jeff Foster? Dalembert?
Tyson Chandler will also be a UFA, if Cuban doesn’t extend him, but will probably either stay in Dallas or get overpaid. Kris Humphries is a PF, but a serviceable big and a UFA at the end of this season. Ronny Turiaf can opt out of his contract (unlikely this offseason, but possible for nect season). There are also younger, serviceable options like Andris Biedrins, Brendan Haywood, and maybe Marcin Gortat (if Sarver decides to cut salary) who could be had through trade (although their contracts are unappealing). In fact, I would argue that if we are going for a makeover of our frontline, this offseason would be the time to do it.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
i preferr keeping the team intact but id pay for ellis with alot of pauls money.
im glad alot of our guys dont want to be traded. mabey its nothing personal and just business for them also. who says that the player has to roll over whenever a team pulls the its the business card. there are probably alot of reasons that would be in the players best interest not to just willingly accept a trade to some loser team in nowheresville. i am Absolutely outraged over the recent stories of some bozo writer claiming camby was faking it. Somethings you may think but u just dont say and since when is he a doctor. besides docs always say 3-6 weeks not 3 weeks and its totally up to the individual. what a (insert offense word here)!
isn't the whole key to trading, an effort to make the team better~~now;
and especially in future year?
just do not see the trade out there that does that at this point in time, and the coming draft doesn’t really look that great. that makes trading for more picks questionable.
miller would be the most attractive player to a couple of contenders. do we really want jameer nelson for miller. this is a trade that could happen if orlando is serious about trying to get a championship this season. miller would dramatically increase howard’s efficiency, and orlando doesn’t need his shooting to spread the floor.
everyone talks about miller for harris. i don’t see the why of this from new jersey’s standpoint. for me its a huge downgrade for portland, but can understand how others think differently. harris is off the court 30% of time due to injuries, and we going to bring him to a team already injury prone? you like or dislike miller, but he brings it every game. does harris do that?
camby is a bit different. he is strong rebounding defensive center with good passing skills, but is also subject to nagging type injuries. to be fair, camby has actually missed less games as he has gotten older than when he was young. big men are a weak spot on the blazer team already, the absolute lack of numbers. so a camby trade has to return at least 1-2 bigs to make any sense whatsoever. if there was a way to pry scola from houston that might be worth the effort, or maybe kaman from san diego (but he has been hurt a lot this season).
how about a productive wing or small forward. is there anyone that we might give batum for that would make sense. someone above mentioned, igdougala from philadelphia in a potential mathews trade. to me it would make more sense trading batum for him from a talent standpoint. obviously, no way do makie these salaries work. granger from indiana is also a possibility here. even west from new orleans is interesting, and yes; could see west and aldridge in same front court.
the rest of the team other than mathews and aldridge and the injured players is basically filler. moving pryz for a big with potential to a team want cap space might be interesting. detroit has a couple of younger bigs with potential, but the way dumars has been running that team, really have no clue what they are doing.
its hard for me to see a trade out there that will really benefit the blazers at this point in time. moving miller might get you the best return, though even nelso or harris are both really crapshoots. just don’t see the value of accumulating picks into this draft either.
Enough with the crazy talk.
Lets get down to the basics.
- You can’t trade Roy. Nobody is going to take a max contract guy with a questionable future.
- Can’t trade Oden. It’s just too scary.
- Can’t trade Wes. Does anyone even remember WHY we got him? Because he’s 22, versatile, great defender. His contract AFTER the 9+Mil we owe him this year could actually be a total steal.
- Can’t trade LA. Do i really need to explain that?
Great point.
Thats basically what everyone wants. I’d like to see a Joel Pryz and cash for Anthony Randolph. High upside backup PF/C no real risk. He can do eveything joel can and hes only 21.
by Josh Wagner on Feb 21, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
I would love to land Randolph, but he is nothing like Joel
Joel is valuable now primarily for his physical defense, great pick-setting, and leadership.
I don’t think Randolph can provide any of these things. He is a 220-pounder with good ball-handling ability and athleticism for a PF.
He can probably rebound as well as Joel at this point — and Randolph’s surely a better shotblocker since Joel’s injuries.
Trade that should happen and my reasoning behind it
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4dfcsxs
Portland Gives- Nic Batum, Marcus Camby, Joel Pryzbilla, Patty Mills and Rudy Fernandez
Portland Gets- Andre Iguodala, Mareese Speights, Aaron Brooks, Al Harrington, and Sheldon Williams
Why would they do this: We gain a young big in speights who will battle with Sheldon Williams (a more then capable player) to be our starting center. He has lots of potential and is capable of having a solid all around game similar to Nene. Sheldon Williams can be play solid defense as well as rebound with anyone which may lead to him being our starting center in a center by committee type thing. Andre Iguodala would be comforable playing with Andre Miller once again and provide us with much needed wing athletes and finally give us one more fast break threat for andre to pass to other then LMA. He also is an exceptional defender like he has shown through the years and last summer in the olympics. Iggy is also a good passer and rebounder making him a perfect for us i believe and worth trading batum for. People say he shoots too much, well that maybe true but i believe thats because of the situation he is in and i also believe Iggy is a coachable player who will adjust to the situation for the good of the team. Aaron brooks would be the perfect compliment to Andre as he can actually shoot from 3 and is good at it. He could also be our potential future point guard after next year when andre’s contract is out and is great compliment to Brandon Roy, LMA, Oden, and Wesley Mathews because of his ability to stretch the floor. Yes i know no one likes Al Harrington’s declining game or his contract but i also believe he is another serviceable player whose clutch scoring could be like having a rich man’s travis outlaw for atleast one or two more years but by then his contract will only have about 2 more guaranteed years making it very manageable.
Denver Gives- Nene, Al Harrington, Sheldon Williams, Renaldo Balkman and Chris Andersen
Denver Gets- Joel Pryzbilla, Jered Jeffries, Shane Battier, Jason Kapono and Houston’s !st round pick
Why: Denver simply gets rid of every bad contract they have for the price of Nene plus they get a first rounder out of it and if this isnt enough for denver to be convinced on the deal if i were cho i would throw in a second rounder, euro player or cash to make it happen
Houston Gives- Shane Battier, Jered Jeffries, Aaron Brooks and one 1st round pick
Houston Gets- Marcus Camby, Nic Batum, Chris Andersen and Patty Mills
Why: Houston gets Batum who is a player they’ve desired for a while and he’ll be there long term starter at SF, they also get Chris Andersen and Marcus Camby to contribute down the stretch and help them make the playoffs. They’ll end up with a rotation of
PG- Lowry/ Mills
SG- Martin/Lee
SF- Batum/ Budinger
PF- Camby/ Hill/ Andersen
C- Hayes/ Miller
Philadelphia Gives- Andre Iguodala, Mareese Speights, and Jason Kapono
Philadelphia Gets- Nene, Renaldo Balkman, and Rudy Fernandez
Why: They get rid of a player with a contract they didnt want (most of the league doesnt want) as well as another guy they dont seem care about in Speights for one of the most dynamic (when healthy) post in the league in Nene they also get rudy which should help make Turner better instead of worse like a ball needy player in Iguadala does.
well, strictly speaking... if the criteria is "something Blazers management thought was a good deal"...
Then everybody should be on the table…
If we were made better by trading LMA? Musta been a great player or two coming back!
Had to package Batum to get rid of Roy’s contract? Really hate to see the blossoming Nic go, but… OK…
But I understand what you’re saying, it’s all about value… And you also have to make it a win-win… Which is why it’s tough to find the right trading partner. Typically, you deal with two different types of teams: (1) rebuilder who wants to dump salary cap, (2) contender who needs one last piece…
Which is why our most tradeable guy is Pryz. Big, fat $7M (or 9?) of expiring contract… Package together an extra or two, trade exception, we could get a $10+M/yr star type guy back… Problem is, usually only a rebuilding team wants the cap space, so you won’t get picks or young guys by trading with this team… And they will try real hard to get a guy like Nic, too, which I wouldn’t do…
Second most tradable guy is Camby, ($11M?) to a team looking for a big man as the missing champ piece. Could get back a couple of rookie contacts to balance, and a draft pick or two… This would mean we’re rebuilding again…
So, trading is tough. We have valuable pieces, but I wonder how much Cho is working the phones for the missing pieces trade versus the rebuilding trade? He must have already made his case for going one way or the other… Could get very interesting… I’d love to be a fly on th wall when Cho presents the proposals to Paul…
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