A Paean to Andre Miller or "Why the Portland Trailblazers should make another ‘stupid’ Wesley Mathews-like mistake and make sure Andre Miller stays in Portland".
Let’s start with the conventional wisdom: ‘We need to trade Andre Miller for someone younger before the trade deadline’.
Why?
I understand that the raw logistical elements (his contract, his age, the vagaries of other NBA team’s salary cap dancing, etc.) all point to the fact that he ‘should’ be traded, but I’m here to tell you that that is all a bunch of crap misguided: Portland should move in the exact opposite direction and tie Andre Miller up for the next 3 years.
Say what??!!
Follow me past the jump...
‘Uh..., dude, we need to get younger and better!’
But what if that’s impossible? What if there aren’t any available (e.g. forget Derek Rose!) point guards who are ‘better’ than Dre?
‘Yeah, but his age…’
Andre Miller is 34; Jason Kidd is 37. Dre has been an iron man. Yep, he doesn't jump, but that will contribute to extending the duration of his career. He is precisely the type of player who can play until he's 37 or 38 or so….Let’s just assume he can only play effectively for another 3 years. Wouldn’t that put him into the mix of a Trailblazer team with a peaking Lamarcus Aldridge and a make-or-break Greg Oden franchise center run? And there is another salient point to ponder: basketball smarts don’t degrade with age – Andre is a terrific mentor to our current point guards. He could conceivably continue in that role as an asst. coach after his playing days are over. My friends, Andre Miller is the complete basketball package.
In my humble opinion, Dre has one of the highest BB IQs in the league. Chicago's coach Thibodeau had a great observation: If you make a body-position mistake, Andre Miller will make you pay EVERY time. In a game of high-flyers, it goes without saying that cerebral play oftentimes goes unheralded; people tend to get caught up in the emotions of observing tremendous athleticism. Unfortunately, that blinds them to the fact that it is oftentimes the smart player who is truly the key to victories. Take this quick quiz: Who would you rather have on your basketball team? - Monta Ellis or Steve Nash?
I make no apologies for saying that I think Dre is one of the best point guards in the league. EVERY player who has ever played with him will proffer their opinion that Dre is one the most under-rated players in the league. Portland fans – Have you forgotten what is was like when we played AGAINST Andre Miller? Not me; I winced every time he spanked our bottoms. Sort of like how he spanked Derek Rose recently…
Not on the basis of raw metrics, but in the more nuanced and multi-variate equation of 'making your team better', Andre Miller is head and shoulders above any of the available alternatives. To take just one example, Lamarcus’s point average will tank by 5ppg the instant Andre is gone. But it is more than that – the smooth and efficient 4th quarter game flow that we are now witnessing will disappear into thin air. With Andre gone, these boards a year from now will be filled with comments bemoaning the Blazer’s lack of chemistry…
To sum up, not only do I think Andre is has a superior skill set, but I believe he is of inestimable value in organically improving our team dynamic. It absolutely drives me crazy that this is not universally understood and appreciated! Steeping for the next 3 years in the basketball wonderfulness that is Andre Miller would result in a preposterously lop-sided return on investment for years to come…
Bottom line: From both a short and long-term perspective, trading Andre Miller would be an Epic Fail.
112 comments
|
50 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Excellent Post....True all around. Great description of what we've got in Andre.
Buddy is a goooood dog!
Rec'd purely for vocab.
I also agreed with everything, though probably to a lesser degree than the poster. In other words, I agree with all the points but don’t value Miller as highly…maybe 90%.
LaMarshmallow - Distant Memory.
Completely agree
if we could lock him up knowing he might be a backup for the last year or two and for a price that makes that economical. Dre is a fine PG. Even if we do manage to go younger for the starting PG in a bit , bringing Dre off the bench two years from now wouldn’t worry me at all.
At the very least we need to pick up his option.
by poorwebguy on Feb 14, 2011 3:43 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
'zactly
although it’s not an option, it’s that next year his contract is unguaranteed, thus he can be waived at no cost
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
payday is thursday and i can finally afford that #24 jersey
I’ve seen him frustrated. Never seen him intimidated. Who else has more swagger? Geez, the Blazers need his personality alone. David Aldridge referred to him as an “ELITE PG” in today’s “morning tip”, enough said. Thanks for the article. Hey! Blazer management, RECOGNIZE!!!
This is a great post except we have a chance
to snag Raymond Felton, TEN years younger and a great PG. less than a mill difference in his contract but still. Drop Oden and well free up enough Cap Space.
you think the knicks are interested in moving Felton witht he season he is having?
really?
Besides Dre and LaMonster are awesome together….
Does LaMarcus become LaMonster without Dre feeding him with the great post an oop passes?
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
I see no reason why they would make that move as well.
Felton is playing well and signed to a reasonable contract.
It’s interesting the sudden increase in “Do not trade Dre” posts. While I’ve always said not to worry about PGOTF since Dre is the type that ages well and we have bigger needs, if there is a right move out there, I am not opposed to moving him. But, it’s likely that the best scenarios do not net us another PG. At this point, Joel probably needs to be moved and Camby has more value than Dre as most of the contenders do not have a need for a PG.
The cake was a lie.
Would be interesting to know what % of LAs buckets
result from Miller assists versus others on the team. Most projected fewer easy buckets for LA when Camby went down with the knee injury. That obviously didn’t slow down LAs production. I know there’s lots more to the analysis, but it would be interesting to know.
LaMarshmallow - Distant Memory.
The morning rumor
is that the Nuggets want Felton in the Carmelo deal, and are willing to ship out Chauncey.
Not sure what the Knicks would do here, but since there is also talk about Przybilla going to Denver, it could very well be that Portland is Felton’s actual destination, and either NY or Denver is getting Dre in the deal.
Something like this, perhaps:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4l9fmwh
Oh, and Denver would also get one of Portland’s first rounders.
If Portland gives up a first rounder in a deal like this, I think they need something more. Maybe Portland also gets Shelden Williams in this deal?
by Rodney Gustafson on Feb 15, 2011 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
And for those keeping score at home...
That would mean a potential starting roster next year of Felton (27 years old), Matthews (25 years old), Batum (22), Aldridge (26) and Oden (23). With backups of Mills, Johnson, Fernandez, E. Williams, Cunningham, Babbitt, S.Williams, Camby, and Randolph. Good young team that plays wiser than it’s years.
by Rodney Gustafson on Feb 15, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
Oh, and...
I would absolutely LOVE for Dre to retire a Blazer. But IF an opportunity like this presents itself, you’ve gotta look long and hard at the next five years… Dre should be able to play for three of them. Felton should be a starter for five or more.
by Rodney Gustafson on Feb 15, 2011 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Felton...
…is one of the few (only?) guys I would trade Dre for (realistic trades only).
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
brandon?
"Some things you just can't question. Like you can't question why two plus two is four. So don't question it, don't try to look it up. I don't know who made it, all I know is it was put in my head that two plus two is four. So certain things happen. Why does it rain? Why am I so sexy? I don't know."
Shaq
by LeGarrette Blount's Right Fist on Feb 16, 2011 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
I love your optimism
but no
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Denver has shown no interest in re-acquiring Andre
If you accept that they are starting over to rebuild Andre would not fit would he? Sure he can mentor but they would be largely wasting his talents.
Well...
If they think that Lawson is their PGOTF, and think he needs another year being mentored… Miller is much cheaper for that year than Billups is. And he may be VERY tradeable next year mid-season (if there is a season) if they think Lawson is ready to take the reins.
I agree that they don’t have interest in Dre long term. But as an asset, I think he fits them as well as or better than Billups for the next year or so.
by Rodney Gustafson on Feb 15, 2011 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
one question
who do you want to go get that is a young point guard and doesn’t suck and won’t hold us back.
throw out some names please
by Daddygr33nJeans on Feb 14, 2011 4:21 PM PST reply actions
Something I think about
People seem to think we eventually need to move Andre because his contract is up in two years anyway. Why? We will be 35 and, with his style of play, probably have 3 more good years. That means we likely have 5 more good years out of a very reliable point guard. Especially given Roy’s career-ruining knees, I don’t see how it makes sense to move Andre.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Dre will be good for us here
move him only if you can prove what he is moving for will be an upgrade. IMO
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Here's the irony
there may be a team or two that would desire Miller for his virtual EC
but (to my knowledge) there are no contending teams who are desperate to acquire ’Dre to actually start and run their ballclubs, in March-May
If there is no immediate need and no offer from another GM to overpay for Miller, then he should stay
because Portland is a contender and he’s essential to what the Blazers are doing. (21-11, ten games over 500 without Roy? Are you kidding me? No one would have predicted that!)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
right on
even then, I just like the guys game. So what he can’t hit a three, he makes LaMarcus, LaMonster, that is worth it all on itself.
He takes those matchups against the young over hyped players personally(sure they are good but what have any of them actually done). He often outplays them (DRose a week ago( or does not take any garbage from them (BG).
We need the veteran experience in either event. Despite all of the negative press about his locker room coolness, the actual evidence before our eyes is that he is remarkably vocal and supportive of the younger players (leave him in coach when Armon was trully balling one night and mentoring Patty) Helping keep LaMonster aggressive early in the season while he was getting acclimated to playing a post game alien to him.
He defends his guys, the most vocal guy on the team about the snub and is one of the best passers in the game right now.
Sure he has his foibles, no 3 point shot, doesn’t jump, turns the ball over at least twice in the last 5 minutes of every game but he brings so much worth watching, quick step from the top of the key, rebounds, clutch shots, fantastic oops, ironman, post up most PGs in the league, great foul shooter who can get to the line, plays hurt, plays hard, fantastic steals, he is just fun to watch when he is running the floor…
Don’t trade Dre please.
Don’t trade anybody unless it is an upgrade, no “rebuilding” which implies trading off guys for “assets”
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
…he makes LaMarcus, LaMonster…
Has anyone noticed that the dynamic between these two blossomed after the consecutive-games-played streak was ended and LMA threw Miller a party? Before this event, the only relationships Miller had with other Blazers was adversarial: BRoy wanted the ball, Nate wanted Blake, etc.. After this, the alley opps started piling up.
This should be a lesson to the team to make an effort to integrate new players into the fold, and adjust to them as much as they adjust to the team. Expecting someone to come in and fit seamlessly into an existing dynamic is ludicrous. You gotta give to get. Aldridge showed some respect and is reaping the reward.
I’m all for keeping Dré at this point. I don’t see anybody out there that could do what he’s doing for this team. Sure, there are a few names that I’d like to see in the black and scarlet, but I’d stick with the known quantity for now and look to deal players from the lower and middle part of the pack (Mills, Rodo, Joel, Marx) for some vets (Battier, Turiaf). Maybe do something drastic like pawn off Roy and Oden to make a run at Dwight this summer.
Stealth > Wealth
Before this event, the only relationships Miller had with other Blazers was adversarial: BRoy wanted the ball, Nate wanted Blake, etc.. After this, the alley opps started piling up.
This should be a lesson to the team to make an effort to integrate new players into the fold, and adjust to them as much as they adjust to the team. Expecting someone to come in and fit seamlessly into an existing dynamic is ludicrous
I think ’Dre received far too much blame (looking at you, Quicken little) for not “fitting in” with the Nate-Brandon-Blake show back in the fall of ’09. The first sign we had of how effective Miller could be was the improvement that Oden showed when the two of them were on the floor together…but that duo was short-lived, unfortunately. It took Blake being traded and Roy missing games for Andre to make in-roads with his teammates out on the floor, and LMA is reaping the benefits with an MIP-caliber season
If Cho flips Miller for Harris, we’ll be starting all over re: these on-court relationships. The transition will be slow and painful, and there’s no guarantee that Devin will be the iron man that ‘Dre has been (odds are that he won’t…)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
it's not my line
but I don’t mind spreading the love
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If the Blazers end up with Devin Harris instead of Miller I will be sick
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 20, 2011 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
before 'Dre was signed I was high on Harris
Devin was a clear upgrade to Steve Blake, after all. Despite the fact that Harris didn’t have a reliable 3-pointer to play alongside Roy
Jason mentioned on several occasions that KP had Devin on his short list of players that he’d like to pursue. In fact, there was a rumor that Portland was trying to acquire Harris from Dallas (the proposal was Outlaw, Jack and Frye, IIRC) but there was talk afterwards that not all of the Blazer’s brass was in favor of the deal at the time. Perhaps some of the remaining Blazer scouts still value Harris as KP did?
I also heard Mark Cuban say that Devin scored very well on the Mav’s pre-draft psych screening, this is supposed to measure leadership skills and overall mental toughness. So I thought that Portland should make a play for him, until the day Miller was signed
That was back in ‘09, and since that time Harris has one little to distinguish himself. His stats are OK, but he hasn’t elevated his teammate’s play like you’d like to see. The argument that he would do better on a contender doesn’t really wash, with me. If a player is a difference-maker, he should be able to take any situation he lands in and help the team improve, at least somewhat. This is what ’Dre has done throughout his career (look at how Philly dropped off since he left, even though they have Iguodala, etc) Another example is Roy in ’06.
OTOH, Harris came to the Nets and they stunk, even though the have a decent young big man. Avery Johnson was Devin’s coach in Dallas, and now the two of them are reunited in NJ and Harris is “available”? This should send up a red flag to Blazer fans—the grass isn’t always greener—even if the PG is younger and more-athletic.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
There it is^
As true and accurate summation as there can be
Great Post
I think something that fuels the “conventional wisdom” is that there may be a lockout next year and thus we will lose a season with Andre only getting older.
I’m with you — his style definitely lends itself to age.
I think that the machinations around the CBA may include an amnesty provision...
which may result in Roy being taken off the books and, thereby, actually increase the importance of keeping Andre in the mix.
By taken off the books
I’m assuming you mean Roy wouldn’t count against the cap if he had to retire early. Doesn’t help the Blazers if Roy is a 10 – 20 minute player for the remainder of his career, though.
-D
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
No, more like one-time exception to waive a single contract.
Most of the owners would support this, as they all have at least one guaranteed contract they would like to shed. While nonguaranteed contracts will be heavily contested and won’t happen on next CBA, I can see some sort of exception being instituted as a compromise.
The cake was a lie.
So, would that mean that Roy loses his paycheck?
It would sorta suck for Brandon. On the other hand, if it was purely cap-space relief, I could live with that.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Feb 17, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty sure his knees are insured
he will be financially set for about 15 generations.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Roy still gets the money if Portland uses the (anticipated) anmesty clause
his salary just doesn’t count against Portland’s payroll/capspace, so they would be free to replace him without paying the luxury tax (assuming the new CBA rules remain somewhat similar to what they are now)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Will it also include a provision that freezes all player's chonological age?
I think that needs to be included.
LaMarshmallow - Distant Memory.
If that "conventional wisdom" turns out to be correct
You’ll never get close to equal value for Andre anyway, so it pays to hold him in case there’s a CBA agreement. Or the lockout may last 30 games and they’ll still be a season.
Even if you wanted to trade Andre, he’s hard to trade because all the top teams have legit starting PG’s or Point Forwards (LeBron James) and the one’s not close to playoff success want to build with younger guys. So it’s a catch 22: the playoff ready teams have established point options and the rising teams want to stay with a younger roster. There’s not going to be any good young players or high draft picks coming our way by trading Miller, even though he’s clearly a Top 10 PG.
The best play is to keep him, resign Oden and PRAY he can eventually become half the player he had the potential of being AND that he’d resign with Portland after the QO runs out. If Batum can keep upping his game and Roy can develop into a scoring sixth man, with LMA a stud and Matthews getting better, we have a team that can compete with the best perhaps. Lotta ifs with that scenario but all plausible ones.
Losing Miller would derail the above scenario if it came to pass. I’d try for that before throwing in the towel and rebuilding from scratch again.
Precisely. Since he is undervalued, we won't get anything close to what he's worth...However
The otherside of his being undervalued is that it may allow us the option of re-signing him for a very reasonable price..
Andre Miller fits the team like a glove
he throws great lob passes that make for our bread and butter alley-oops. he fits better with this team and the way we play than most other PGs we could find in return. even if could get a better point guard in return, i don’t think we can get one that fits our team team better.
Hey and you know what?
We are actually a pretty good team, all things considered. And we’ll be a lot better when we get Camby back. I think we have a reallistic chance of making it to the second round of the playoffs.
Book it. I said it first.
Both teams played hard and ball don't lie. Rasheed is the Yogi Berra of hoops. We should start calling him Yogi Sheed.
okay, pdxchuck
you’re right. You’re absolutely right. There really is no way we are goin to get anyone better than Miller anytime soon.
The guy’s got great handles, feeds the post well, abuses smaller guards, hits his fts down the stretch, alleys the oop magnificently, virtually NEVER misses a game.
In terms of PGs he is probably number 8 or so in the league.
There is one young PG that I might take instead that’s a reasonable get, though, and that’s Steph Curry. Guy can shoot. And he dished 13 dimes last night in a win against the Thunder. So I think he can pass too.
Whether he’s worth what we would have to give up is the really tough question, but he’s the only but that I can think of to your logic of “if not Andre then who?”
\\\oo///
<
\__/
Love me some miller
No young player is better then Miller at getting LMA the ball. He onl;y scores when he has to unlike the up and coming PG’s of today
ALLLL Rudy Then!!!!!
I can't disagree with your high praise for Miller's game
That said, I genuinely believe you’ve understated the importance of a team getting better through trading an expiring contract. Consider this. Let’s say the Blazers DO hold onto Andre and they give him the exact same deal he just signed, two guaranteed years with a team option third. Fast forward two years. Now he’s 36 on an expiring contract. How much less is THAT deal worth in a trade? In the two additional seasons you got out of Andre, was the team poised to make a western conference finals push? I think you have to admit fairly that as constructed, with Roy’s knee issues, the Blazers are a second round playoff team on a good year. I happen to enjoy watching this squad, but why should the team settle for a second round push every season? Aren’t fans tired of that yet? Are you Blazermaniacs really going to be satisfied watching your team MAYBE win 50 games a year with Miller as your starting PG?
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
But that's the point
There isn’t some promising young PGOTF you’re going to get for Miller. The contenders all have PG’s or Point Forwards (LA, Miami) so they won’t be overpaying. The up-and-comers won’t be trading for a soon-to-be 35 yr. old PG. The irony is that even though Miller is still really good, you can’t extract near his worth in a trade. There’s zero point or logic to get a low first round draft pick or something along those lines. The only way you can extract real worth for Miller is packaging him with Batum or Matthews, but then you create other holes and you still don’t get equal value for Miller as a part.
That’s why you keep Miller, as he’s reasonable salary, doesn’t tie up long term money, good production, and can have him back-up when the time comes. You never know if we’ll be able to pick up a difference maker FA if an injury exemption to take money off the books is added to the new CBA. Either way, we have a pretty talented group here who might surprise to the upside if Roy comes back as a premium sixth man. Trade Miller and you torpedo the possibility.
I would also add that factoring in future trade value is, at best, a minor consideration.
After all, given enough years and anybody’s future value (e.g., Kevin Durant in 15 years) drops to zero. What’s way more important is what does that player give you during the time he plays for you and what can you reasonably expect to receive for that player in trade. As far as I’m concerned, a Dre trade would yield so little benefit that pulling the trigger on it could not be construed as anything other than a salary dump. And if that’s the case, then that means management has given up and is blowing up the team. I fervently believe that that is short-sighted.
That's right
I mean, if we were in a completely hopeless situation (playing less than .500 ball for example) with little chance for upside in the next couple years, I might be inclined to blow it up. But that’s not the case here. We have Matthews signed long term and he’s good and still improving; we have Nic Batum who has been disappointing of late, but like we’ve seen with Aldridge, it takes a little while sometimes before the light bulb goes on. We have an emerged LMA who is an AllStar level PF and signed for another 3 years after this. We have the strong possibilty Roy can be a pretty effective sixth man – an important trait for many championship caliber teams. And we have Camby who is still a Top 6 or 7 rebounder in this league, hopefully effective for another year beyond this one. And of course we have the Greg Oden wildcard.
So it’s not a hopeless situation here – far from it; it’s quite promising depending on what side of the glass you’re drinking from. Is it as promising as it once was? No, but then again no one factored in the Matthews addition into the scenario, so it’s mitigated somewhat. Although there are a bunch of ifs in this scenario, I certainly wouldn’t give up hope on the squad yet; especially since the Western conference is weaker than it has been in the last decade or so.
there ain't no "Greg Oden wildcard"
Sorry but let’s be real. Oden will never be healthy enough to play more than a few games per season. He’s basically done. His body is battered and his confidence is shattered. The Blazers would be foolish to sign him to any more contracts.
Both teams played hard and ball don't lie. Rasheed is the Yogi Berra of hoops. We should start calling him Yogi Sheed.
dude it's plain as day. just look at the present
the dude has had at least three major non-contact knee injuries. Remember the microfracture in ’07 after we drafted him? No contact injury.
then the fractured patella, then the other weird injury last summer/fall that required another microfracture. All non-contact injuries.
No GM in his right mind would pay the dude another penny. He is finished.
Both teams played hard and ball don't lie. Rasheed is the Yogi Berra of hoops. We should start calling him Yogi Sheed.
i will bet any amount of money he gets another NBA contract
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
by douglast on Feb 15, 2011 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Me too.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Feb 15, 2011 4:07 PM PST up reply actions
Are you kidding?
No GM in his right mind would pay the dude another penny. He is finished.
Oden’s potential alone is going to land him a contract and it’s going to be decent, if short-term.
Here’s the thing: Greg Oden has lots of injuries, yes, but none of them are chronic in nature. It’s been a bunch of random variating things.
As for the recent microfracture addressing the contusion in his patella, this surgery and injury mirrors the one he had in 2007. His recovery from that surgery was great, and so it would follow that his recovery from this one will work out too.
Aside form a whole of odd injury history there is nothing that clearly indicates that Oden cannot be a dominant big at some point in his career. He is young and his limited time on the court places him among the best centers of all time.
Make no mistake. There are lots of GMs out there willing to make that gamble.
\oo///
<
\__/
Couldn't agree more
Honestly, thinking of this Oden situation reminds me to think of another Blazers player we’ve had… Sabas. Its nowhere near the exact same situation as when we had Sabas, but look at it this way.
With Sabas, we got him late in his career when his body was too old to really get over the injuries and the mobility problems he had that very well could have made us a contender in the 90s. Most argue, no question, we would have had no contest winning titles. That was his biggest downfall – the age. Did that stop him from putting his heart on the floor, regardless of his body’s aches and pains, and playing as good as he did, giving us what many would call one of the most entertaining performances to ever don a Blazers uniform? N-O.
Oden… is 23 years old. Everybody wants to get down on him and say that he can’t come back… when the facts about that statement are absolutely not true. Or really, there is no “fact” stating he can’t come back. There just isn’t. There is supporting evidence, and that evidence can be ominous, and depressing, for sure. But it does not create a situation of reasonable doubt. Depending on how you look at the glass (either part-filled or part-empty).
Okay, if he lost a foot or an arm in some freak accident, then I think that could be a pretty damn good grounds to say he’s not ever playing basketball again. But to go as far as to say that after only having surgeries, and at such a young age in his life and career… I don’t buy it. And I highly doubt that the high majority of the GMs in the league do, either. This is not a Sabas situation. This is a young player who, although has been set back by some pretty crappy injuries, is not ready to just give up. It does not mean that he is SPENT, or “done”, like Sabas was at the end of his career. The one thing Oden has on Sabas? He didn’t join the league at the age of 31 with knee or ankle problems… He’s got 8 years on him. Eight Years. That is plenty of time.
From what we’ve seen on the court, he has so much potential to grow mentally and skill wise. He’s only 23, and we were JUST beginning to see the tip of the iceberg of what he could be if we give him the chance. Perhaps most view that as what he ‘could have’ become, but the point of the matter is, even if he became half as good as that, would he still be worth it to this team? As far as I’m concerned, even half-decent centers in this league are a hot commodity (look who are 3rd string center is!). Good centers are rare. Great centers are borderline legendary (meaning they either have the tools necessary to become legendary, or are already in the process of doing so), especially in THIS day and age of the NBA. Given the rarity of even good centers, healthy ones at that – would Oden be worth the risk even if he was only considered to be half-decent, but remained healthy after coming back strong from these injuries? These are the kinds of questions we should be asking ourselves, not whether he’s going to “come back” or not. We all know, short of death, losing a limb, having some sort of other career ending injury that can seriously impede him for the rest of his life, or him giving up * knock furiously on wood, all you Oden-believers *, he’s going to be something in this league. He has a lot to prove to the world, and I don’t know how he doesn’t plan on proving it short of the aforementioned happening. I can feel his pain just by looking at the television or reading an article that had a quote of his in it. A dude with that much poise, and that much perseverance, fighting through so much to come back – you’d think that’s all he has on his mind. If it were me, I wouldn’t be able to think of anything else.
We know what he’s fighting to come back from the surgeries, but what if he could learn to account for the downfall of his injuries, and still become a dominating player at some point of his career? Even if he didn’t become ‘dominating’, what if he could be a half-decent center? Or a good one?
Are we willing to give him the chance to reach that point? Or risk giving him away to someone else like LA or SA or some other contender (or sleeping contender) who has the time and money to invest in his recovery and development? Honestly, giving away a center that has potential in this league, especially one with the possibility of Oden’s, is probably one of the riskier things you can do… People compare him too much to Bowie, or other high picks that didn’t make it to the potential that everyone else wanted them to be (mainly the potential they envisioned when they were drafted) because their bodies and spirits were fractured up, and in some cases, broken.
I don’t know how someone’s spirit couldn’t fracture after everything that he’s been through, but it does not mean its completely broken… or that he can’t return. His dedication so far in his young career proves he has nothing more to lose, and obviously that his spirit is not broken. He has had so many people telling him what to do his whole career that I bet at times he didn’t even know what to do. But as long as he doesn’t give up, and continues to fight back… only the future will tell what he can become. Where there’s a will, there’s a way, folks. And Oden is working his hardest to make that will, a reality. Imagine the story he could become if you all just gave him the chance. The chance he deserves. Because he was picked by the Blazers as the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft… no higher draft honor.
We were given the chance to pick ANY player we wanted in the ‘07 draft, and it was a no brainer for us… it honestly was. Regardless of what side of the board you’re on (whether its DFN or BPA – draft for need or best player available), it would have seemed really odd from our standpoint to draft Durant and create a logjam galore (and likely more and more trades/player movement to fix said logjam) rather then let a potential all-star center get away from us. I didn’t care how good Durant was in college, seeing him that far back, you can never know how good a player like him would become in the NBA. He was tall, but undersized; lanky, but a very intelligent offensive powerhouse. As sad as I hate to say King Charles is right about one thing – you can’t really fake defense in the NBA because of how crazy strict calls are. And to pass up on a player with Oden’s potential not only as a center from the offensive side of the game (where he averaged 18 and 11.5 in college, and scored 25, 12 boards, and 4 blocked shots in the NATIONAL TITLE GAME as a freshman, no bigger stage for a college player, all pretty much with a bum-healing right wrist), but also his defensive potential to become one of the league’s greatest defensive players of all time. Even Steve Kerr said in December of his freshman year that he was a “once in a decade” kind of player. Considering all of his accolades going into the NBA, how COULD you find a way to doubt him? Honestly? How were we wrong, at that time, to choose him over Durant? Given all this? You can’t change the past. But to sit in denial and say that we made a mistake, is just crying over spilled milk. Clean the milk up and see what we’ve got left in the gallon, for crying out loud, before throwing the whole damn thing away.
If it were any other person in his position, do you think they would give up? If you, personally were in Oden’s position. Would you give it all up? I think the fact that he is not giving up is a testament to his devotion to the sport of basketball and his wanting to be a part of this organization. We can’t ask him to do more then he’s already doing. And to claim that he’s completely and absolutely done with his career in basketball, is either an attempt at being a troll, or an uneducated myth. Either support the dude, and support your team, or go join someone else’s trolling brigade…
By the way.. Bowie went on to average 10.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.78 blocks per game in his ELEVEN YEAR career. If Oden could come back and average this, in limited minutes on a bench role, would I be satisfied? Heck yes, I would. Would YOU be satisfied? That’s up for you all to decide. I believe in my team, and the players that are on my team, regardless of the situation they are in. Long as they aren’t pulling guns out of their lockers, getting busted for smoking dope, dogfighting, destroying team chemistry, and they leave it all out on the court and work hard, they deserve a chance to me. That includes Oden.
That’s my $0.02
by Twise95 on Feb 16, 2011 1:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Here's the $60,000 question: What if Oden rejects the QO?
Has he said that he’d accept it yet? I know Miller & Co. said they’d offer it.
Stealth > Wealth
and do what?
his options, if offerred the QO:
1) sign QO, play 1 year, be unrestricted after that
2) sign longer term deal with Blazers
3) sign RFA offer sheet with another team, which Blazers have right to match
4) sit out or go overseas.
If he chooses (4), as long as we keep offering the QO each June, we just repeat this same set of options every summer.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
If he goes for 3) I'm done with him as a fan, even if the Blazers match.
His loyalty to Portland has been unquestioned and I’m just wondering if that attitude is based in fact or not. If he even shows a glimmer of interest elsewhere, or a desire to inflate his contract, he’s dead to me. This city has done so much for those bum knees, he should be working for free and smiling about it.
This is an opportunity for Greg to show his quality, and I sincerely hope he does the right thing by taking the QO without shopping around. After that last year, he can do what he wants with his head held high, but this team deserves something in return for the burden it’s carried.
Stealth > Wealth
Thanks for that summary doug...
What I hope is that we get #2 done. Tell Greg, OK, we’re going to give you a max year contract, starting at the minimum, wtih huge incentives for games played.
if we were in a completely hopeless situation (playing less than .500 ball for example) with little chance for upside in the next couple years, I might be inclined to blow it up. But that’s not the case here
this^
If Portland was 7 games below 500 there would be no debate. But they’ve climbed to 7 games over and tied for 6th in the WC. It’s time to let the cake bake and maybe trade a young asset for another veteran, not to dump salary and acquire draft picks
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
excellent points all
Hear! Hear!
Both teams played hard and ball don't lie. Rasheed is the Yogi Berra of hoops. We should start calling him Yogi Sheed.
Couple of thoughts
Thought#1:
With Roy out Dre has fit in much better. A lot of resistance is because Roy and Dre simply don’t mix and that was the resistance to signing Dre in the first place. As Roy no longer can play, that resistance is gone hence why a lot of people agree with your post.
IF Roy can come back and IF Roy can play at his old level then Dre and Roy still don’t mix. If you’re looking at the window of now or the next year or two, then you likely go with Roy and trade Dre and hope that Roy can be healthy enough for one championship run. Roy can’t be traded, but Dre can.
I think this thought is unlikely but it’s a possibility. Mostly what I see here is Roy a shell of his former self and a bench player. Freaking sad. Freaking sucks, but that’s what I’m predicting and I couldn’t be happier to be wrong.
Thought #2:
Doing nothing means we stay in the same place. Previously we had young talent getting better, so it made sense to make minimal trades. The issue now is that Roy and Oden should both be counted out of the equation which leaves us only with Aldridge and Batum as young talents to seriously grow. This means that we stagnate if we do nothing or we degrade. Batum can still improve, but I don’t see any other trailblazer make any significant leaps or bounds.
I trade Dre in this scenario, not for a better point guard, but to improve the team. If the team doesn’t improve with a trade of Dre, then I dont’ trade him.
Final thought/summary:
As a point guard he’s a good fit for our team now that Roy is out. Our team, as it currently stands, is no longer a team destined for a championship. As such, I personally make moves that put me in a better position for a championship run, and that could potentially mean trading Dre.
"The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Volunteers and officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net."
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/olybb/news/story?id=5509394
I'm running with your Roy tangent for a sec.
Regardless of Miller being in the backcourt with him or not, if Roy comes back healthy he does need to adapt his game to be a more effective off ball scorer and playmaker. This has been evident since even before the Miller acquisition, but obviously Miller’s presence puts in in the spotlight. I’ve thought from the beginning that Roy and Miller’s game not mixing is stupid and unnecessary. Mainly a lack of willingness on Roy’s part to adapt to a better, more successful style of team basketball in favor of sticking with what got him ROY and all star invites.
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 15, 2011 6:36 AM PST up reply actions
Not to mention
I think Roy is probably done as a starter. He’ll probably be more like Manu.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Feb 17, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
Roy doesn't see it this way. He said a few days ago that he would come off the bench
for a few games and then “we’ll see” ….a change from what he said earlier…the guy is an alpha dog and wants to be the alpha dog on the court.
He is not going to like to be second “fiddle” to LMA…even though LMA is clearly the better player.
And knowing LMA, …..LMA may just go along with this nonsense. Which would break my heart.
What!?
He is not going to like to be second "fiddle" to LMA
Where do you get this idea? Roy is a competitor first and foremost, and if he’s ever expressed any alpha-ness it’s only because he believed he was the best suited to take that role. Clearly, that’s not going to be the case when he comes back because LMA is obviously the better player now.
I’m sure you’ll probably cite the Miller drama, but can you really blame Roy for that? Roy played a style that thrived next to a shooter, and Roy was a better player than Miller at the time. That whole saga had nothing to do with Roy’s ego and everything to do with what Roy thought was best for the team.
Your analysis of Roy’s character is way off base. I guarantee you when he returns Roy will take whatever role best allows him to help this team win, because that’s the type of player is.
\oo///
<
\__/
by NCBlazerfan on Feb 18, 2011 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
I hope so, too
but I think you have read Brandon’s psyche correctly. He’s pretty transparent (wears his heart on his sleeve, etc) and as Nate Robinson said a few weeks ago, Roy never gives up. (Which is the same dogged determination that made him great, BTW) Hopefully he’ll mature and realize what he needs to do to stay in the league and help his team, but if not…
Perhaps a new Blazer head coach will tell him to know his role and shut his mouth, or
The Blazers will exercise the hypothetical amnesty clause and he’ll become a FA, in a year or so
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I seriously worry that LMA will play second fiddle to BRoy again...
LMA has become the beast-like alpha dog (at least on the offensive end) like I was hoping Oden would become.
Roy is done, and he needs to renegotiate or retire, if he really wants to help this team.
i dont see how because he said
Don’t trade Andre, that means the Blazers do nothing…it means don’t trade Andre. Move other pieces around. Improve the team elsewhere. Maybe it means moving some combination of Camby/Joel/Nic/Rudy/Wes/Patty/Rookies maybe it means signing a new FA in Summer ’11. But in no way, shape, or form does holding on to your effective starting point guard mean you do nothing.
Getting younger just for the sake of getting younger doesn’t make sense to me.
Thought #2 seems short a few players
Both Wesley Matthews and Rudy Fernandez need to be added to the list of young talent. No, they are not superstars but they both can be starters and together with Nico form a 3-man wing rotation that is hard to cover and defends well. I also think it is premature to count Roy and Oden out of the equation. This is an improving team than deserves one more year to solidify what we have in Roy and Oden and further develop the others, as well as the very young bench.
I agree with ratbas-turd
My head says = Keep Dre if there’s not a better – or better-in-potential draft-pick/young player – to be had in a trade. Trade him if there is.
My heart says = Keep him no matter what, ’cause I love the dude, too.
In KP We Bust!
Point Guards are notoriously slow to develop.
Legit Bigs usually take a while, too.
Being as we aren’t likely to get one of those D Rose, sure fire hits (as Boston knows, dumping like they did to get Oden), we are going to be forced to drag one or two developmental players around (as we are now), and hope to discover a diamond in the rough.
It seems a no-brainer to D-League these crap shots, scrap them minutes here and there, practice them mercilessly, and hold on to a TERRIFIC Player in Andre Miller, all the while.
Since Dre doesn’t depend much in the way of athleticism to propel his quantifiable basketball genius, there is plenty of reason to believe that he’ll be preforming at his current level for several years to come. Plus, since not one club came forward w/ a contract offer 2 years ago, there is no reason to think he won’t be affordable going forward.
“Let’s say the Blazers DO hold onto Andre and they give him the exact same deal he just signed, two guaranteed years with a team option third. Fast forward two years. Now he’s 36 on an expiring contract. How much less is THAT deal worth in a trade?”
Yes, when Miller is 36 he is worth less than when he is 34. So what? If you keep him to age 36 you have gotten two extra years of play out of a pretty darn good point guard.
So the question really is, can you get a player in trade for Miller who will create more value for the Blazers during his career than the value Miller will create for the Blazers over the next two years? I believe the answer is almost certainly NO.
and by the way
Who do you see playing for the top teams in the NBA? Mostly a bunch of old guys.
Celtics, Lakers, Spurs, all loaded to the gills with old players whose experience outweighs their creaky bones.
Your post is absolutely correct in all respects
If you run for president I will vote for you.
Not to be petty and narcissistic, but I said the same exact thing in a comment a couple days ago. I said "Andre should be signed to a three year contract with a team option fourth year. Look it up.
One minor quibble with your post. No self-respecting NBA player is going to “proffer” his freaking opinion. He’s just gonna flat out say what he thinks. Maybe in the French league they go around proffering opinions but not here.
Both teams played hard and ball don't lie. Rasheed is the Yogi Berra of hoops. We should start calling him Yogi Sheed.
I'm sure that I'm parroting stuff thats been said before
I just felt so strongly that I wanted to get it off my chest in a separate post…As for your friendly critique re: my choice of words, let’s just say that I struggle (as an insightful college professor noted many years ago…) with ‘a propensity for florid verbiage’.
Mon mauvais !!
Hey....wait...
Are you Colin Meloy?
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
by DonkeyShins on Feb 17, 2011 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
Obviously we're not going to be trading Dre for a better, younger point guard
but if a deal comes along that involves trading Dre which allows us to get better in the long term then it needs to happen. Dre is fine point guard and I appreciate what he brings to the team, but he won’t play this well for long. It’s smart to get value for him now while the team is in this state of limbo. The Blazers clearly need to retool in order to be seriously competitive and that’ll take a season or two.
It’s entirely possible that no good deal comes along and we keep/resign Dre. That’s fine. But, I would be looking to move his non-guaranteed contract either by the deadline or in the off season.
#52
I agree. In fact I even fanposted this same thing months ago.
This is probably at least the third one since then saying basically the same thing,
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 15, 2011 6:18 AM PST reply actions
Plus, and I don't know if this has been said cause comments were TLDR,
I don’t think there is a very big market for Dre as a trade chip versus his value to the Blazers right now. All the talk of trading Miller for great young talent for the Blazers’ future is hogwash. Remember Philly would have traded him for value if they could. Speaking of Philly they are a lesson in why we should hang on to this guy.
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 15, 2011 6:23 AM PST reply actions
at this point, for a game I'd take Nash, but for a career, Ellis
and I believe that’s what Norsk is saying
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Curry...he is one PG that I'd be happy with landing..but I'd STILL wait till the end of the season.
If there was any way the Blazers could get Curry, I would be ecstatic. Unlikely to happen but you never know.
Meh
Trade Miller. I’ve gotten to where I can finally stand Miller most of the time, but having a non-threat on the 3 point line is really getting old.
Rumor has it that Dos Equis first approached Aldridge, but Aldridge turned thrm down because the real 'most interesting man in the world' would not have to prove it in a commercial. - Canis Hoopus 1/7/11
Patty shoots under 30%. Rudy barely 35% after a hot stretch.
At least Andre KNOWS he can’t shoot 3s.
wha??
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Feb 15, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
you don't need every player to be a 3 point shooter
Frankly if those in the Blazer rotation who ARE 3 point shooters would improve their consistency in making the shot then it would be even less of an issue that Andre doesn’t happen to be a 3 point shooter.
And by the way, one thing that’s interesting about Andre’s shot. It is very digital. He is an excellent shooter of the midrange jumper but can’t hit the broadside of a barn at 3 point range.
I wonder if there are a lot of other players that have such a sharp decline in their shooting percentage between the distance that’s “in their range” and where it’s “out of their range”.
Don’t know whether that is a good thing or not but it is a curious aspect of Miller’s basketball skills.
conceptual point on the way the game gets played
and still missing the whole idea about what Miller brings to the party. We have went through the rotating guard exercise and found out the missing element was a “floor general” point guard.
Thank goodness for Miller’s stance early on last year…when all is said and done, Miller takes honors for rounding out this team’s offense and coupled with Roy’s absence has made everyone on the team better.
Up and running.........and almost defending.
The one single factor on trading 'Dre is: does it make the team better
This is the criteria that management says they are committed to. In order to trade ’Dre we have to have a point guard that can replace him sufficiently to make us better overall. Andre has served the team well and is not a throw-away player to be added to a deal. He is a central piece for all the criteria you listed. But nobody is completely safe from trade and the closest to that criteria is LaMarcus.
YES. Andre is a keeper.
He’s way more valuable to us than what other teams are willing to give up for him. That said, I think he would dramatically improve Atlanta and Orlando’s chances of competing in the playoffs. Andre isn’t a plug-n-play kind of dude—you have to completely change the way you do things for him to be successful. That means changing your style of play two thirds of the way into the season. No competing team is going to do that unless they’re in a desperate tailspin. So no—I don’t see how there is a market for Andre’s services.
The real issue is bench production: Patty is a poor shooter and terrible facilitator of the offense. There are games where his skill set and energy are a nice tool. There are also games where he is just plain awful on the court. If we had a good backup who could shoot a competent percentage and run the team at the ends of quarters not only would Andre be more valuable, our starters would be more effective.
The Blazers need to position themselves in the draft as to get one of the top 3 PGs. Only then will they have a backup who can be banked on as a future starter.
wha??
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Feb 15, 2011 12:38 PM PST reply actions
Best "Keep Dré" argument I've read.
There are very few starting PGs out there that I covet and the likelihood of snagging them is rare. Dré can hold down the fort just fine. Heck, LAL is winning Championships with DFish, and Miller’s better than that dude.
Stealth > Wealth
some points for Andre
1). Genius level basketball IQ.
2). Excellent character.
3). A doer not a talker
4). Iron Man
The 2 contenders I could see Miller having a big impact with
are Orlando and Oklahoma. The former because Jameer Nelson is a mediocre PG at running the offense and the latter if they could convince Westbrook to play the 2 most of the time and slide Andre to the 1 (Sefalosha is bench material and the more he sits the better). Of course, neither situation will happen because Otis Smith already made his move and Westbrook is excelling at the 1.
Speaking of Otis Smith in Orlando, I think he really messed up by providing nothing more than a lateral move when he brought in Arenas, Richardson and Turkuglu. What he should have done was make a play for Andre Miller, and have a real passing PG feed the post. They also have a million three point shooters who could have benefitted from some sweet outlet passing. But all Smith did was replace a couple 3-point shooters + Gortat for 3 other outside shooters and put Turkuglu at Point forward. Not surprisingly, the team is stuck in neutral and they have no floor general to run the system.
One point in favor of keeping 'dre that you missed...
John Canzano favors dealing him. And Canzano is nearly ALWAYS wrong.
I inexplicably found myself listening to the self-aggrandizing one a couple of days ago while driving. I heard Canzano say that he hadn’t appreciated ’dre’s play at first, but that ‘dre had “won me over.” As if one of the NBA’s all-time assist leaders needs to “win over” a local media commentator. All Canzano did in denigrating Miller’s play early on was demonstrate his profound ignorance of the game of basketball.
Now, Canzano says, he’s come to appreciate Miller’s game but feels he should be dealt nonetheless due to his age. Wrong again, as your excellent post demonstrates.
I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.
I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.
As if one of the NBA’s all-time assist leaders needs to "win over" a local media commentator. All Canzano did in denigrating Miller’s play early on was demonstrate his profound ignorance of the game of basketball.
this^
There’s a lot of “well, Miller won’t be around when the Blazers are ready to compete for a championship” mentality going around, which is understandable. The irony is, Nate and Roy won’t be around either. And there’s no guarantee that Devin Harris (if acquired) will be either. In fact, let’s just push the championship window out enough years into the future that LMA will need to be traded because he’ll be too old when the moment arrives. And Nic Batum, he’s getting long in the tooth, too.
Portland has been 10+ years since they’ve been relevant to the rest of the NBA in May. Why rush back? We should be willing to wait another decade to make sure we “get it right”
my tongue and cheek are sore
What we have here is a GM who came from a situation (OKC) where the mindset was to stay under the cap and acquire draft picks. In the other corner is an owner who has been around for 20+ years and is starting to realize his own mortality creeping in. Who will prevail? Right now, the decision on Andre Miller will be an indicator. Down the road, that bone of contention could readjust to a different veteran player. I don’t have to tell you where my loyalties lie—a roster full of experienced veterans win playoff series, draft choices only stretch the timeline out towards the event horizon
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
sometimes I can't disagree more with your posts
this is not one of those times. :)
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 20, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
I do try to stir the pot, from time to time
BTW, I don’t mind it if Portland acquires young tough players like Wesley Matthews. It’s not age that makes a veteran desirable to me, it’s where he’s been and how hungry he is. ‘Dre may never have won a playoff series (mostly due to the talent level on his team versus their post season opponents) but I don’t doubt his inner drive to get off that schneid at least once before he hangs ’em up.
I hope he has that opportunity while with Portland, but (as the Schonz used to say) “nobody said it was going to be easy!”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yes, Dre is a keeper -
Bailed us out more than once and does it on BBIQ but that isn’t the best part – he makes the TEAM smarter!

by 







































