Oden Acception Qualified Offer: good news or bad?

by dogbert on Dec 8, 2011 9:16 PM PST

Assuming that you believe that Oden will recover from his most recent injury to be the dominant big man that we all expected from day one (I know that a lot of you don't believe this) how is the news that he accepted the QO good for the Blazers. It sounds like he is going to be super cautious coming back with the sole goal of showcasing his talent for potential buyers. This sounds like the worst outcome possible. My reading of Wikipedia's description of restricted free agency says that if the Blazers had NOT offered Oden the QO then he would have become a restricted free agent and the Blazers would have been able to match any offer that other teams made to him. Assuming the the Blazers still believe in Oden for the future, why didn't they do that? Am I misunderstanding RFA? If the Blazers wanted to retain Oden you'd think they would have done whatever possible to make him a RFA.

It seems like the bid price would have been much lower this year, as he's coming off of injury and a much riskier long term bet by other teams, and the Blazers at least could have chosen to match. Now, maybe he'll play well for the 20-30 games at the end of the season and will choose to start his hall of fame career eleswhere. Why in the world did the Blazers go the QO route? I guess if he turns out to be a total bust, then one year of QO is preferable to a multi-year contract. Is that what the Blazer brain trust is thinking?

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by Timmay! on Dec 8, 2011 9:22 PM PST reply actions

It is this line

“For those asking, once Oden signs the qualifying offer, the Blazers will not be able to negotiate a multi-year contract with him until July 1, 2012, the date that the summer free agency period opens. Oden will be an unrestricted free agent at that point”

in that post that led to my confusion. I get the point about the Blazers not being able to negotiate a multi-year contract once Oden signs the QO. But isn’t this saying that he’s an unrestricted free agent after the QO expires?

That seems contrary to what other people are telling me below. What are the circumstances that make him a restricted free agent?

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Dec 9, 2011 7:01 AM PST up reply actions

That's a big assumption

Of course if we knew he was going to be healthy then today’s news is bad.

But given what we do know right now, I say it’s good news, because we maintain flexibility. If he comes back healthy and beasts it, Portland can still give him more $ than anyone else and the odds are that he will stay. Not 100% of course, but still decent odds.

On the other hand, If he stays hurt, then we can turn the page. So given the large degree of uncertainty, flexibility is a valuable commodity. And that flexibility is only enhanced by our large number of expiring contracts.

by zbrum on Dec 8, 2011 9:23 PM PST reply actions

Needs a poll!

Good news, and predictable.

This was the best offer anyone was going to give to a guy that has only a 50% chance of being a good player again. His alternative was probably something like 3 years 13 million.
But it’s also encouraging that he accepted it, because it means that he believes there’s at least some chance he’ll be successful.
If he really wants to leave, he would have found a way to leave anyway. I think he intends to stay.
Finally, now there’s no chance of the Blazers locking up a lot more long term money in another guy who might not be able to play.

by pualo on Dec 8, 2011 9:32 PM PST reply actions

Oh and your understanding of QOs and RFA is backwards.

They had to offer it to him to make him restricted.

by pualo on Dec 8, 2011 9:33 PM PST reply actions

thanks

That’s why this didn’t seem to make any sense to me.

I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

by dogbert on Dec 9, 2011 6:52 AM PST up reply actions

You are misunderstanding

The QO was required to retain the rights to match any offer he may have received as an RFA, otherwise he becomes an Unrestricted FA and could sign with any team without the Blazers having an opportunity to match. If he believed he could get a better long-term offer, he could have pursued and forced the Blazers to decide on matching. By signing, the Blazers get another year to decide if he is worth a larger offer, or a bust. Greg gets another year at a higher salary and will be an UFA after the year is up. If he shows promise, the Blazers could offer during the year, but my gut tells me this could likely be the last year for Greg. I think he will sign elsewhere after this year.

I love Greg and am hopeful he can turn this around. He is fun to watch…c’mon Big Fella!

by ORDucktape on Dec 8, 2011 9:34 PM PST reply actions

if the Blazers had NOT offered Oden the QO then he would have become a restricted free agent and the Blazers would have been able to match any offer that other teams made to him.

No, if they did not offer the QO, he’d be an unrestricted free agent right now.

by Timmay! on Dec 8, 2011 9:34 PM PST reply actions

unfortunately

I think that it is a sign that he won’t be able to play much if at all this year. If he was really close to being healthy, i think he would have sought a multi-year deal somewhere, hoping the blazers wouldn’t match. IMO i think he is more likely to not play at all this season, and sees this as a chance for a big paycheck while rehabilitating and then hits the free agency market in 2012.

don’t get me wrong, i like greg and would love to have a healthy oden play center for the blazers for

years to come.

by retirecards51 on Dec 9, 2011 11:26 AM PST reply actions