Bill Simmons Predicts Blazers Will Keep Brandon Roy, Won't Use Amnesty Clause
by Ben Golliver on Dec 3, 2011 10:04 AM PST
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PrintPolarizing sportswriter Bill Simmons -- also known as "The Sports Guy" -- opines on sports/entertainment/culture website Grantland.com that he believes the Portland Trail Blazers will not use the Amnesty Clause to waive guard Brandon Roy.
You won't see nearly as many teams use their amnesties - at least right away - as we initially expected when Jonathan Abrams and I had so much fun playing the Amnesty Guessing Game during the lockout. Why turn a serviceable body into a sunk cost unless it chops down your tax bill, gets you under the tax completely, opens up enough cap space to pursue a quality free agent, or, in Baron Davis' case, gets Baron Davis off your team?
My prediction: Only Cleveland (Baron Davis), San Antonio (Richard Jefferson), Los Angeles (Ron Artest), Orlando (Gilbert Arenas), Golden State (Andris Biedrins) and Toronto (Jose Calderon) will use their amnesties this month. That's it.
If you're the Blazers, waiving Roy would "chop down your tax bill" and "get you under the tax completely" but it would not "open up enough cap space to pursue a quality free agent" or "get Baron Davis off your team." So, if you're scoring: two out of four criteria were met.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
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Read this
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/11/17/1157838/the-bill-simmons-typo-that
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
Peyton Manning's Coyotes are getting geared up for another championship
Against Pele’s Lynx
The Department of Redundancy Department is hiring, maybe I should apply myself.
Sorry, my memory is fading with age
It was Landon Donovan’s Lynx
The Department of Redundancy Department is hiring, maybe I should apply myself.
I'm getting the opposite vibe
Reading between the lines of the recent media coverage, I think the Blazers will use it and move on. They will do it in a way that will try to keep as much goodwill as is possible in such situations, hence after meeting with him and his representatives, etc. But I expect it to happen and happen soon.
I'm kinda with you....
….Larry Millers press conference was “strange” in so far as I think I was so hungry for any Blazer management response that initially I liked it. BUT the more I go back and listen to clips and read the transcript…the more disturbed I become about a LOT of Larry Millers choices of words, or lack of ability to find the words…
But I think I agree. Larry Miller never denied that using the Amnesty Clause wasn’t something they would look at and/or do. He simply shot down reports that the decision had already been made. He also correctly communicated to fans, a franchise and personal respect for Brandon Roy and promised a protocal would be followed that recognized fan input as well as included communication with Brandon Roy. BUT he never said, we aren’t going to use the Amnesty Clause on Brandon Roy.
So I’m with you. Like a magician, I think Larry Millers statements were a bit of misdirection. But I still think the trick ends with Brandon Roy suddenly disappeared off the Blazers stage.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Are we saying they won't use it at all, or they won't use it immediately?
I think the latter is obviously true and the former is almost certainly false.
But actually, I think keeping Roy is a way to avoid pressure to splurge money on a “big name” free agent who almost certainly won’t be worth it.
and if you believe that
Then either the Blazers are completely rudderless, or I’ve some Everglades real estate to sell ya
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
no I didn't
It’s still LaRue in his Loyola uniform hoisting up a 60 footer against some white stiff
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think keeping Roy is a way to avoid pressure to splurge money on a "big name" free agent who almost certainly won’t be worth it.
Hoo-boy
Paul Allen hasn’t overpaid for a FA in 10+ years (thanks to Mrs. Turkey-glue…) The most Portland can pay anyone if they amnesty Roy is 22.5 mil over 4 years, and they really, really, really, really need another big man
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Dec 3, 2011 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
it makes a ton of sense to me to amnesty Roy and sign the best player available
that is what will give us the best team going forward
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Makes sense, but history doesn't agree with you.
This approach would have us signing a full MLE player and those have been notoriously bad signings generally.
by 52therim on Dec 3, 2011 3:21 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
MIller, Matthews
I’m willing to roll the dice one more time, for the sake of Portland’s thin and soft front court
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
of course, Paul has made some unfortunate decisions re: resigning his own players
but most of that (Darius, Brandon) was due to injuries that cropped up, later
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
because BS is never wrong
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Often wrong.
But also often very entertaining.
by Free Bayless on Dec 3, 2011 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
and Canzano
is less-entertaining but more often…right
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I wish there was no amnesty clause at all.
lol, I keep finding myself thinking we need to waive Roy, but I just really don’t want us too.
BS is just fishing for more Blazer fan hits, as usual...
He probably saw the pages going up by fans desperate to save their favorite Blazer, and played the angle.
I would be shocked if the Blazers didn’t use the amnesty clause. I would be surprised if most teams don’t use it. It’s a Get Out of Jail Free card for goodness sake. How could you not use it? Maybe not immediately, but there are several years to make a decision.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
Simmons is "fishing"?
No offense to you personally Adam, but the whole “oh, he’s just trying to get us riled up so we read his stuff” take is, in my opinion, a mischaracterization of Simmons and, frankly, kind of a lazy argument. Even you hint at it when you say the Blazers might not use it right away. It’s almost a certainty, but at the same time you want to use it at the right time. That’s exactly what Simmons is saying.
There are certainly people out there who just lob out outrageous stuff just to get attention, both nationally and locally (won’t say who because, you know, I don’t want to give them any attention). But that’s not Simmons’ shtick. His bias is in favor of being entertaining and interesting (and wanting that from teams and players), not intentional, borderline hateful provocation. I think he does that fairly well overall, albeit at the expense of being long winded at times and whiffing at other times with some convoluted analogies from the 80’s and/or reality TV.
Also, if that’s what he’s all about, why do it to Portland? Even though we’re enthusiastic and web-savvy, we are nonetheless one of the smaller fan bases in the NBA. But we’re interesting and entertaining in many ways and we’re a proud franchise with a great history, and that’s why he gives us shout-outs (I think).
Speaking of this topic, I’m reminded of the hilarious spoof of “Around the Horn” on 30 Rock, where Tracy Morgan’s character was a guest on a show called “Sports Shouting”. Great stuff!
by The Cactus Leaguer on Dec 3, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
BS has regularly commentd about the "soccer moms" in Portland
pounding his website with hits when he writes something they don’t agree with
Frankly, I wouldn’t even know who he is, if Bedgers didn’t post links to everything he writes re: Blazers
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
For what it's worth
Anything about the Blazers written by anybody is linked through this site…meeting a primary purpose of the site….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
yeah, but BS makes the main page
when he passes gas in a westwardly direction
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
To be fair
Probably most big name folks that don’t specifically cover the Blazers make the Main Page when they mention our team.
If Ben posted links every time another Blazer blog mentioned the Blazers, we’d be inundated…
Just national media doesn’t talk Blazers too often is my guess.
But it meets 2 out of 3 in our case
Because we do not apply to the “or in Baron Davis’s case” clause, only 3 of the criterion apply to us. And we meet 2 of them. Two-thirds is enough to stop a filibuster in the Senate, and it only takes 1 of the Allen, Kolde, and Miller trio to say the word in Blazer reality (that one being Allen of course).
that would not be a good decision
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
haha
yes, it would certainly be hilarious
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I have a question...
In the tribute video posted here….it includes Brandon’s post Dallas Playoff Game 4 on the court interview. Within it Brandon admits that their were periods last season where he didn’t even know if he would play basketball again. Which got me thinking….
Which scenario is better for The Blazers? Fully hypothetical in both cases. But would it be better to use the amnesty clause now, and get all the benefits discussed? OR imagine Brandon is kept…plays a portion of the season or a stretch, suffers more injury or simply discovers he cannot handle the grind of even a shortened N.B.A. season? Hypothetically what if Brandon then decided to by his own choice retire? Which is better? Amnesty today? or Retirement tomorrow?
Be clear. I like Roy and wouldn’t want him to retire or be forced to retire. BUT it was his post game admissions that got me to thinking….it is possible Brandon Roy discovers that he simply is NOT a viable N.B.A. player at a level he can personally accept. We’ve all been evaluating this situation as Amnesty vs. Non-Amnesty…when maybe what we should be thinking is Amnesty vs. Retirement.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Interesting
In that unhappy scenario, Portland could eat their cake and have it too, re: the amnesty clause
OTOH, there’s no current contract on Portland’s payroll to use it on, besides Camby and Wallace but they’re short-timers anyway
for the reasons douglast has listed eloquently this week, I’d prefer that the Blazers cut ties with Brandon this week, sign a big man like Hayes to the full MLE next weekend and move on with the rest of the roster as it is
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The worst thing is that this is a "lose-lose" situation.
There is no guaranteed winning move.In both cases, we will probably regret..
And in regard to Roy /and in regard to Oden/ the Blazers will play Russian roulette.
On one hand you lose from a PR perspective
on the other you lose from a longterm health of the team perspective. It’s a lose-lose, but I wouldn’t say it’s apples to apples
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
If Roy is in a prominent role on any team, retirement is a very real possibility.
All the more reason to Amnesty now and allow him to move into a different role in a new climate. I simply can’t imagine him being satisfied with a diminished role on the team that was rebuilt around him. Look to last year’s complaints about his minutes and role for evidence.
I think if Roy were to be picked up post-Amnesty by a team in need of a 15 minute per game bench scorer, with the appropriate pay, he could hang around the league for awhile longer. If he stays in Portland, where the coaching staff can’t resist extended bouts of Roy-centric offense, his days on the court are numbered.
It would be more heartbreaking to see him ground to a pulp by a pressure-cooked season, and forced into retirement, than to see him win a ring with another team. From a purely business perspective, the team would benefit from his retirement and their ability to use the clause on Camby (giving them enough flexibility to pursue a couple decent free agents), but I personally don’t want to see another Blazer laid out on the hardwood, clutching their knee, ever again.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
by Adam Randall on Dec 3, 2011 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
I disagree....
…with the assumption that The Blazers or McMillan would or plan to use Roy in anything but an earned playing time role. Infact, if recent reports by Jason Quick are accurate, part of what The Blazers WANT to know, is if Brandon would be willing to accept a back-up, reduced role.
But I don’t make either assumption. I don’t assume Brandon couldn’t adapt to a different role. And I don’t assume Blazer coaching and/or management is looking or dependent on trying to play Brandon as a big minute starter…
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
and I don't assume
that BR will ever be truly content playing 2nd fiddle, while in a Blazer’s uniform
much less 3rd trumpet
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Dec 3, 2011 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This is what concerns me most about potentially keeping him.
There have been many locker room / minutes / role issues for the Blazers since Roy became a star, and they’ve all involved Roy. If he could go back to that outlook he had as an up and coming player, I would be more open to him being kept.
As is, I think he still projects wanting to be the alpha dog, and that just won’t work with his current abilities.
No but conversely...
…you ARE assuming Brandon can’t or wouldn’t adapt to a role as a support player. I simply think we don’t know that answer.
Brandon hasn’t had enough time since reaching that tipping point with his knees and the knee procedures to really try to embrace not only the realities of where he is physically but also the mental aspects of a potentially changing role.
The TRUTH is we simply don’t know. Everything else in either direction IS an assumption.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
There is absolutly nothing in the past that would make you think he woudl be willing to accept it that role
Last year was the perfect example, but he whined throughout the year that hes not getting enough touches, and he kept throwing Andre under the bus over and over again. He hasn’t been a great team mate when hes not the center piece. Plus I think it puts hte other players in a difficult situation. They also know what he has done for this team, so it must be hard for them to put him in his place knowing what he has meant. Its just not a good situation for all involved.
I think we heard that answer
after game 2 against Dallas, last April
Roy will have a much-easier time being a complementary player on a different NBA roster. It’s not just how he thinks, it’s how all of his teammates (and coach) react when he’s around (deferrrr)
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Dec 3, 2011 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's not an assumtion.
We saw it in full scope last year. Both sides talked about an adjustment to a limited role, but when the rubber met the road, Roy complained about the size of his role, McMillain once again became dependent on Roy, a front office staff was fired because he didn’t like how it played out, and the worst outcome is that the other players reduced themselves on the floor as they deffered to Roy.
This didn’t exactly come out of nowhere. We’ve had underwhelming backcourts for the past couple of years, due mainly to the impetuous demands of who Roy would and wouldn’t play with. When he didn’t get his way with Miller he publicly threw Miller under the bus several times.
Of course their is the side that Roy carried the franchise for years to counteract that. However that role is over and not returnining and I think you have to be not paying attention to history to believe Roy will be happy about it.
This story doesn’t end with Roy in Portland.
How much under the cap would the Blazers be
if Roy is waived?
Also, don’t the Blazers need to Waive Brandon to avoid being WAY into the tax if they sign Oden?
The main benefit would be that they'd get the full MLE to go after free agents, instead of just the new "mini MLE"
And that they could use the saved tax payments to somewhat offset the signings of Oden and a potential extension of Batum.
they're gonna need the full MLE to entice Hayes away from Houston
Chuck isn’t Brandon, not by a long shot. But Hayes has the beef the Blazers have been missing in their frontcourt for at least 2 years
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
it's also about learning to be a successful team without him
because he can’t be here more than one season either way
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
agree with this point.
I read the post put up by storyteller re: how the new CBA affects the Blazers. IMO, the Blazers will let Brandon go, sooner rather than later.
The MLE is the reason. Thank you Norsktroll !
Roy's salary is actually less onerous in 2012/13 than this season
This season – Roy’s salary + Oden + MLE is more expensive than 2012/13 with Roy/Oden/Batum/Felton/MLE
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
My understanding is that tax teams don't get the BAE either.
So if we wanted two bigs, we would HAVE to get out of the tax. I could see a scenario where if the Blazers decide to keep Brandon, they pick up one big with the mini, and then do a mid-season trade of Camby for say, Okafor. But it seems to me that kind of trajectory only makes sense if you’re betting on Roy instead of Oden, not Roy+Oden together.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
by conspirator5 on Dec 3, 2011 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
Portland needs to add more than 1 more big man
the iffy health of Camby and Oden make that clear enough
I like Przy, if he’s healthy (and he said he’s now pain free in the legs and back for the first time in years)
but if all the Blazers add to the roster are Joel and Pendy, that’s simply not good enough to weather the potential injury storms
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I've seen a renewed enthusiasm for Pendergraph, and I don't get it.
He’s another oft-injured big. Came into the league with a hip injury, then suffered a season-ending ACL tear.
Beyond the injuries, the Pendergraph I remember was a foul machine. He liked to make his presence known by bumping shoulders and pushing other players around when he came into the game, and would frequently pick up touch fouls shortly into his stints. He was a protege of the Juwan Howard school of dirty tricks, but lacked the savvy to get away with it.
What really lost me as a fan was his last Summer League, when he came into it with the goal of winning the MVP. As far as I could tell, all that he added to his game was a jab-step jumper that nobody bit on, and rarely went down. And still, the fouls kept piling up.
As a 14th or 15th man, we could certainly do worse, but finding ourselves in a place where we’re depending on Pendy would be a bad place indeed.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
by Adam Randall on Dec 3, 2011 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
Yep.
He needed hip surgery at the beginning of his rookie year, then tore his ACL.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
You underrate Pendergraph
Considering the alternatives and the roles available on this squad, Pendy is a much better fit than Landry – and arguably a better fit than Hayes.
Pendy shoots better than either of them (yes – Pendy was actually effective from mid range – something neither Landry nor Hayes can claim), rebounds much better than Landry and potentially better than Hayes (small sample size indicates Pendy is better), has legitimate size to defend both 4’s and 5’s – and most importantly – costs far less and needs far fewer minutes than either Landry or Hayes (and there aren’t many minutes to go around).
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
I'm all for Pendy
He stepped up and plaid the 5 when we needed it, and didn’t do a terrible job either in is rookie year.
Pendy is a much better fit than Landry – and arguably a better fit than Hayes.
Argue away, your’s is not an opinion that’s supportable by facts or observation
Pendergraph is the equivalent of Earl Barron, and EB has more NBA experience. Jeff’s jumper is funny-looking (he leans back and it’s not reliable) He had every opportunity in the world to impress in the 2010 summer league and he was extremely underwhelming
There will be PT to go around at the 4-5 positions until Oden returns, and the roster needs at least one more proven veteran big man as insurance against future injuries. That is not JP
He does cost less and should rebound better than Landry, at least on the defensive end. I wouldn’t be satisfied with adding Carl unless Przy was also included on the final roster. A combination of Joel and Jeff would be a very poor stopgap if LMA, Camby or Oden missed games (or were in foul trouble during a big game)
Hayes >>> Pendergraph as a defender and rebounder
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Dec 3, 2011 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
All of your points are either wrong or irrelevant
including this one:
Argue away, your’s is not an opinion that’s supportable by facts or observation
I’m not going to regurgitate my entire post from the other day – but suffice to say that Landry is a terrible outside shooter, in spite of taking 65% of his shots from distance. To put Landry’s shooting in perspective – he is worse than Hayes – and Hayes has notoriously poor mechanics (yes – there is evidence for all these “claims”)…
Further, Landry at 6’9 (in shoes) has short arms, can’t play a lick of defense, and so on and so forth. Worst – he is a 27mpg guy looking for 27mpg opportunity – and that doesn’t exist with the Blazers. Not when WALLACE does everything Landry can do, except better.
Hayes has a deservedly good reputation as a defender – but is more limited, by quite a bit – than Pendergraph offensively. Even though Hayes shoots the mid-range jumper better than Landry – he is still far inferior (39% eFG%) than Pendy (54% eFG%). Hayes’ overall eFG% is 12 points lower than Pendy’s, gets blocked nearly twice as often, etc. etc. etc. Pendy is a major upgrade offensively over Hayes – and for the role of backup PF behind LMA and Wallace – is a better offensive fit by far (far enough to justify his much lower salary than Hayes’).
More importantly, Hayes does not rebound better than Pendergraph (Pendy had a better defensive RB% and equivalent ORB%), does not have the size to defend legitimate centers, would also need more minutes than are available on this Blazer squad, and costs too much for the available role. Hayes would be a scrappy addition – but with LMA and Wallace on the squad – will not get enough minutes to justify his salary.
Minutes? 96 available at the 4/5:
LMA – 36 – 38
Wallace – 10-12
Camby – 24
Of the remaining 22 minutes – most of those are available at the 5 position. At this point, Oden is going to get those 22 minutes – leaving scraps for a fourth big man. Pendy is far better suited for a scrap minutes role.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
Jeff Pendergraph has 98 total NBA rebounds
Chuck Hayes has 2,441 NBA rebounds.
You tell me which one is more proven.
Wallace does not like playing the 4, and Camby needs a diminished role to stay healthy.
Cut 10-12 minutes from Camby, keep Wallace at SF, and there’s room for Hayes.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
Big playoff game, LMA and/or Greg are in foul trouble
who do you want checking in off the bench, Hayes or Pendy?
Now is the time to improve the front court
OTOH, a Jeff Pendergraph-type player can be acquired at mid-season, if there’s an emergency
Don’t scrimp on the back-up 4-5. Hayes is worth paying for
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
right now, it is Camby coming off the bench in that scenario
And I would agree that with roster churning, Hayes could have a place. But this roster is a poor fit for any player at the large MLE.
I just can’t justify a $5M player at a position that has 4 potentially 5 players making $10M+.
Granted, one of those players is for sure gone next season and one is still a big question mark – and a third is better suited at SF – so the argument for adding veteran depth has merit.
That depth will has a cost both in terms of roster flexibility and roster balance – at least in the short term.
A guy like Pendy – with underrated skills – is the kind of guy that can mitigate salary and minutes issues that will be inevitable if Hayes is added to the current group.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 8:25 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Prioroties
For me, what it comes down to is this, Hayes can defend the toughest offensive big men in the post without getting into quick foul trouble. Pendy can’t. Either that’s a skill you appreciate and are willing to pay extra for, or it isn’t.
For all of the scoring ability that Landry or Pendy might have over Hayes, it does the team little good if their man is scoring easily against them at the other end of the floor, and putting Portland into the penalty. LMA is not a great post defender. Camby isn’t either, although he help defends fairly well. Oden we know is a foul magnet, it will take Greg awhile to learn his craft and earn “respect” from the refs
So, what happens in a big game is the opposing team team will go right at Greg and try to get him on the bench with 2 quick fouls. LMA will play passive, allowing the other team easy baskets in order to keep himself in the game. Nate will shift LMA to center and play small lineups, giving the opponent’s further size advantage.
It becomes a war of attrition and I’d rather have an experienced stud horse like Hayes enter the game than a greenhorn like Jeff who’s just going to reach and grab and take himself out of the game in 5 minutes with 2-3 ridiculously-easy fouls
As far as cost goes, I’d rather spend on the front court than at the backcourt-wing positions. Quality big men are rare, and they should provide more bang for the buck. Camby and Wallace are not long-term Blazers, and there’s never a certainty that the Blazers will be able to swing the trades that brought them here again, for similar players in the future.
Poor drafting has left the roster with weak assets, like Pendy. So this week will be very important, to potentially add another big man who can remain with the team for 3-4 years. Thankfully, the front office seems to be aware of this need, and hopefully they’ll make the right choice(s)
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I wouldn't mind him as an end-of-the-bench guy.
I love his attitude, he plays hard, and he’s likely to come cheap.
All the same, that doesn’t put my fears to rest that he picks up dumb fouls and has a bad injury history over a short period of time. Also, I don’t think that jumper is money.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
Jeff Pendergaph is statistically a young Etan Thomas, except without the dreadlocks.
Can’t measure the power of dreadlocks.
All kidding aside, though, Pendergraph isn’t the answer, as he’s limited on offense and a foul machine on defense. The offensive efficiency is nice — even from mid-range and the foul line — but it isn’t anything to right home about due to his low usage. His injury history is worrisome, too.
"I Am Mine"
Batum isn't a decision factor IRT Roy Amnesty until 2012/13
Relative to Batum, the Blazers could keep Roy this season, amnesty him over the summer, and use the savings on Batum then.
Also, it should be noted that any failure to waive Roy this season starts the tax bill at $18M, regardless of whether the Blazers resign Oden or use the MLE.
Keep Roy, re-sign Oden, use the MLE costs the Blazers $38M this season, but only $8M next season even with resigning Felton and Batum.
The opportunity cost of keeping Roy for two seasons, along with all the other team FA (plus adding at least one full MLE) is $46M in tax penalties.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
I was incorrect here
Also, it should be noted that any failure to waive Roy this season starts the tax bill at $18M, regardless of whether the Blazers resign Oden or use the MLE.
Keeping Roy only costs $3M+ in tax unless Oden is retained with the QO, at which point the cost goes up to $18M.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
To no surprise, I bet that Bill Simmons will end up being wrong on a few accounts.
1. San Antonio won’t amnesty Richard Jefferson this off-season, since the Spurs are a title contender and team owner Peter Holt was reportedly one of the men behind creating the multi-year amnesty clause.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers will amnesty Luke Walton, who reportedly won’t retire in spite of his bad back. Even though T.A.F.K.A. Ron Artest is reportedly out of shape, the Lakers can’t afford to cut him.
3. The Golden State Warriors would only amnesty Andris Biedrins this off-season if it could sign Nene, but I find it doubtful that he goes to the Bay Area.
4. The Toronto Raptors aren’t likely to amnesty anyone; yet, if it did, Leandro Barbosa is the one who’d get axed.
5. The Charlotte Bobcats will amnesty DeSagana Diop, the New Jersey Nets will amnesty Travis Outlaw, and the Philadelphia 76ers will amnesty Andres Nocioni.
6. Some amnesty possibilities remain for this year— such as Atlanta’s Marvin Williams, Denver’s Al Harrington, Detroit’s Charlie Villanueva, Miami’s Mike Miller, Milwaukee’s Drew Gooden, and Phoenix’s Josh Childress — yet, like Simmons, I think that those teams will sit and wait on it.
7. Finally, Portland will amnesty Brandon Roy.
"I Am Mine"
by AK1984 on Dec 3, 2011 10:55 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Some teams might even choose to not use the amnesty clause this year because they would have to spend the money elsewhere to even reach the new salary floor
Such as Washington. While the Wizards have one of the most overpaid players in Rashard Lewis (number 2 after Kobe in the whole NBA), they’d have to be sure to land a high-quality expensive free agent to replace his salary since the rest of the team is young and very cheap. So they might decide to wait for it.
As for NJ, if they think they can use Travis’ salary in a trade as filler later this year (Dwight Howard anyone), they might also decide to keep him.
This is interesting you brought that up Norsk
they’d have to be sure to land a high-quality expensive free agent to replace his salary since the rest of the team is young and very cheap. So they might decide to wait for it.
The Wizards present a very unique trade situation, if they were to amnesty Rashard Lewis. They would definitely be in the market for salary to meet the NBA’s new minimum. If they were looking for a quality piece this year, I wonder if we could get their 2012 first round pick for Gerald Wallace?
If they are set to be aggressive next year, a unbalanced trade like Marcus Camby’s expiring contract for Kevin Seraphin(Who is stuck on the depth chart behind Blatche & Trevor Booker) makes sense. http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7zv36fx
Regarding NJ, I bet they call up Orlando and ask “any way you want Travis Outlaw thrown in the deal?”. Otis Smith will reply “No way, no how, not at that salary”.
Smith's already got Arenas and Hedo on his payroll
Do you think he knows when to stop?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If Lewis is amnestied, Wizards become the prettiest girl at the dance
everyone will want to trade with them…
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
That's why many trades involving first round picks are lottery protected
Ostensibly, adding Wallace would make the Wizards less likely to be in the lottery…
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
Nic Batum is our best bet for getting one of those picks
However, instead of making a play for someone like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, whom we could have on the rookie scale for a few years, and could then occupy Gerald Wallace’s salary slot and role in the future, we seem destined to overpay Nic Batum.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Nico. But if Paul Allen decides to sell the team in 2-3 years, I’d prefer to have some smart cap management in the meantime in order to avoid the team getting blown-up in a few seasons.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Terrence Jones...
One of the most versatile players I’ve seen the last couple of years & he is from Portland(Easy resign).
A 3 lineup of Wallace/Jones(who can play some 4 as well) seems to be a better fit then Nic & Wallace- Not only that but their roles would be clearly defined, with Batum he has been yanked in & out of the lineup. Wallace will accept the 2 year player option, Jones could take over after that(If he hasn’t took the starting spot before that). The passion in his defense this year is what really swayed me with Terrence Jones, Much improved.
...the Blazers did ;-)
Two actually, and at that time it looked like the Nola pick might be lottery-bound.
Please no!!
How could you give up Wallace for a pick? Have you seen Portlands draft history? If anything we should be giving up our picks every single year for proven talent, cause our ability to judge potential talent hasn’t been so great.
"At 49, I can say something I never would have said when I was a player, that I'm a better person because of my failures and disgraces." -- Bill Walton
by MischiefPortland on Dec 3, 2011 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
Roy and LMA weren't too bad
We have yet to see Oden and Smith. Possibly Williams?
Poor Trout
he’s in the same situation now that LaFrentz was back in 2008 = worth more dead than alive
but as with Raef, all of that money is guaranteed
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Hm...I just had a scary thought. Trout winding up back in Blazer uniform if/when he gets amnestied.
Imagine the outcry on this board, then.
The cake was a lie.
I would be
mad if Travis is ever in a Blazer uni again.
atlanta should keep their amnesty clause this year,
Because that Joe Johnson Contract is going to get really ugly, really fast.
It would be kinda cool
if ATL and us just did an amnesty swap. PA calls them up…hey if you guys amnesty Joe…we will amnesty Brandon and we can just swap 2 guards. Of course IDK if I want Joe and I doubt they want Brandon….but it makes for an interesting situation.
Joe Johnson's repulsive contract makes Brandon Roy's deal look like child's play.
No NBA team should touch Johnson’s contract with a ten-foot pole. The Atlanta Hawks are stuck with it.
"I Am Mine"
There is little incentive to use amnesty before training camp
Assuming that the amnesty deadline is the start of games 12/25/11, the Blazers need to see Brandon in practice and in preseason games against Utah before giving up on him. They can burn a year even to see more.
The counter to this is that they already know where he is and seek 1) $15M reduction in luxury tax; 2) waive him to a team that will pay a chunk of his salary; and 3) are able to sign a player with the full mid-level (and could not with the mini-mid-level.)
True
But I think there is a lot of incentive to trade Camby before he has a chance to get hurt.
by 420Phenom on Dec 3, 2011 11:36 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
not really
every team in the league knows who Camby is, and how often he’s liable to be injured
the main incentive for other teams to acquire MC is his expiring contract; his value will be much the same in March as it is now—even if he’s on the DL. The best time to flip him would be 1) after Oden is healthy again, and 2) a contender suffers an injury to their center and needs to overpay for a decent 5
So calm down, grasshopper
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
who knows?
we have no idea what the roster will need in March, due to injuries, etc
they do need a starting center next week, though. As of right now, Camby is healthy and I highly doubt Nene (etc) will be headed this way
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Training camp isn't going to tell much about Brandon
Where is he going to be after 20-30 games? or more importantly if they keep him, 66 games?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
but if they have a def target for the full MLE
they may need to move on Roy quickly, in about 7 days
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Would Landry pull down a full MLE?
volatilelyle.com
by almost awesome on Dec 3, 2011 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
well, he's not taking a pay cut to come here
and the mini-MLE would be a pay cut
so, yes
I’d take Landry and Przy, but not Carl without Joel because Portland’s front court needs defense and interior toughness before it needs another offensive-minded player
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Landry had a 2011 salary of $3M - same as the mini-MLE
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Dec 3, 2011 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
at this point in his career
equal salary = pay-cut
Working in OR, his take-home after taxes would probably take a dive, too
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Its not as much a pay cut with the new CBA
players will be making less then they did before. Staying at the same pay grade is actually a raise given the new CBA. Though I do agree, he could make at least the full MLE from another team.
it's all what the market will bear
I don’t expect to see Hayes or Landry come here on the mini-MLE, so to really improve the front court (and not just settle for band-aids, like Pendy) the Blazers will need to amnesty Roy, before all the decent FAs start flying around on the 9th
When reached 40+ years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
A Lot more with teams around the League's need to fill empty cap-space
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
No one in their right mind would believe Blazers won’t amnesty Roy, the only question is when.
My feeling is since everyone knows it is inevitable, doesn’t it make sense for the Blazers to move on and work on their future rather than wallowing in the past, which is what would likely happen if they keep Roy for the time being?
yes, yes it does
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
looking past amnesty speculation
I thought the most interesting part of that article was bullet point #7. Here’s the money quote:
“The amount of money every NBA team can and will spend far exceeds the collective talent (both for quantity and quality)”
Is that true? If so, it doesn’t bode well for us well matching Oden, pursuing Landry, etc.
If you're looking at this free agent class exclusively, yes
I’d venture to say that amount of money certain NBA teams MUST spend exceeds the collective talent available this offseason.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
The Blazers would be in a position to help those certain NBA teams with that particular problem
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
I predict a chance of rain in Portland !
Can we play basketball already, and back off Roys jock ??
Huge difference in Roy compared to Daris and even Greg.
Roy has actually done something to make Blazernation <3 him.
Lets talk about getting bigs by Christmas.
just win baby !
Hey May be right
While it is usually more fun when Bill Simmons looks like a fool, he may be right about brandon in this case. Assuming Brandon is moving ok and gets a shot to work out, he fills one of the teams biggest needs. He is the most consistent outside shooter we have (excluding the unproven youngsters) and has the ability to be a consistent 12pt 3 assist guy off the bench (going off for 20 at times) and definately more productive and useful than a Bayless, especially if he worked on his outside shooting. Now is that worth his salary, no way. But, If the blazers think he can play at the lvel of even a 7mill/year guy, you at least keep him for this year since we cant get that guy anyway if we use the amnesty clause now. I still think we could even get the chuckwagon for the Mini-MLE, or even a Pryz, depending on his health. So in the end, I think we keep him if
1. He can move and run (realizing he may not do well on back to backs)
2. Has worked to adjust his game to a more Steve Kerr like player, deadly spot up outside shooter. Not worth Max deal, but what we need and would be better than what we get with Min-MLE
3. IF he is truly able to “not be the guy”. Too much whining about playing time and shots last year, if he has accepted the new knees (or lack thereof) and thus new game and new role, we keep him, at least for the season
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