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By the numbers: which Blazers are clutch (w/ poll)


Quite a bit is already being made (probably unfairly two games in) about 4th quarter lineups. Specifically, Felton has had a few boneheaded plays that resulted in turnovers early in the shot clock. Clearly, with Roy gone there's room for new guys to step up and show how clutch they are. Statistics won't tell the whole story here, but I thought it would be fun to see what they say. Below the fold, who the stats say should be in to close out tight games.

Star-divide

First, some caveats. I looked only at each player's clutch stats from last season. There isn't an all-encompassing stat for "clutchness," so I picked a trio of interesting individual measures that perhaps measure different things. Finally, and perhaps the biggest caveat, I looked only at clutch offense, since I couldn't find any statistics that attempt to measure individual clutch defense. Obviously, a team needs defense in the clutch just as much or more than offensive production. Without further ado...

Blazers 5 in the clutch* (by FG%, clutch FGA in parentheses)

1. Kurt Thomas 100.0% (8)

2. Marcus Camby 66.7% (6)

3. Nicolas Batum 51.6% (31)

4. Wesley Matthews 44.2% (43)

5. LaMarcus Aldridge 44.0% (84)

If Thomas and Camby are dropped due to few shots taken, their replacements would be:

6. Gerald Wallace 43.8% (32)

7. Jamal Crawford 33.3% (36)

Crawford and Felton (32.4% of 37 shots) were among the worst in the NBA at clutch FG shootinig (of course, the very worst don't appear because they don't take clutch shots).

Of course, players like Batum need to be set up for clutch shots. Another stat to look at is how many of a player's clutch field goals were unassisted.

Blazers 5 in the clutch* (by % unassisted FGs, clutch FGM in parentheses)

1. Felton 84% (12)

2. Crawford 59% (12)

3. Camby 50% (4)

4. Aldridge 46% (37)

5. Wallace 43% (14)

(Matthews 22%, Batum 19%)

When good defenses lock in at the end of games, sometimes getting to the foul line is the best shot at putting points on the board. Here are the Blazers best at earning free throws in the clutch.

Blazers 5 in the clutch* (by FTA/48)

1. Aldridge 14.2

2. Felton 13.5

3. Wallace 12.7

4. Matthews 9.7

5. Crawford 9.3

(Batum 7.2)

*4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points

source: 82games.com

Batum, although he doesn't generate his own shot much, should be on the floor. He has the makings of a very special clutch player. His FG%/3P%/FT% of 52/35/94 is well above average, although obviously his usage rate is not as high as elite players. He also earned more clutch free throws than I would have guessed (7.2 per 48).

Aldridge is a given as he was easily our most productive clutch player last season. Wallace can get his own shot and scores about as efficiently as Matthews. Camby is always a danger for tip-ins even if his number's never called, and those back taps don't show up on the stat sheet.

From all of this, I'd say Matthews is my odd man out offensively assuming that Batum or Wallace can check his man on a given night. Felton looks like the (statistical) winner at the point as long as he doesn't shoot too often. For those curious, Andre Miller's clutch stats last year:

FG% 37.9 (66 FGA) / Unassisted% 60 (25 FGM) / FTA/48 12.2

Poll
On most nights, who do you most strongly feel should sit in the last five minutes of close games?
Matthews
48 votes
Batum
26 votes
Camby
23 votes
Wallace
8 votes
Crawford
40 votes
Felton
47 votes

192 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 13 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Batum Wallace Camby you leave in for defensive purposes

Aldridge you leave in because he is a superstar. Duh.

Matthews you leave in for his defense and his ability to hit the three and his all-around smart hustling play.

That leaves JCraw and Felton as bench sitters at the close of games.

JCraw you want to leave in maybe because of his offense, but then you have to take out one of the others, maybe Camby if we want to go small.

This is my signature. Do you like it?

by scaredcow on Dec 28, 2011 8:49 PM PST reply actions  

LMA you leave in for defense, too

easily the most underrated defensive player on the Blazers, if not in the NBA

Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.

by blacknoiseNW on Dec 29, 2011 12:33 AM PST up reply actions  

The Blazers best 5 on the floor, defensively and offensively are:

Camby
LMA
GW
Nico
Felton

That leaves Crawford and Wes as 6th and 7th men out.

Now, before reading stats (rec for the work), I would have had a tough time benching Crawford, because his rep is that he’s a shooter…evidently, just not a clutch shooter…

Wes is the toughest omission, and it really depends if he’s hot, he’s in, if not, it’s Nico…

But to pick one, it was Crawford’s poorer shooting % that made the decision easier for me.

by Visionary1 on Dec 28, 2011 9:15 PM PST reply actions  

I was always under the impression that Crawford was a pretty clutch shooter

And last year was an off one for crawford wasn’t it? Kind of hard to find numbers for this kind of thing.

by Batumshakalaka on Dec 28, 2011 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

His clutch FG% was even worse the year before

Crawford definitely has a reputation for being clutch. The numbers suggest he’s fearless but not at all efficient in the clutch, as defined here (last 5 minutes of close games). Maybe he’s the man on last second game winners, but someone else will have to find that stat.

I was mainly curious whether the stats supported benching Felton in favor of Crawford. My opinion is that they don’t. I was also surprised to see Batum stand out the way he does.

by BaylessFace on Dec 28, 2011 11:03 PM PST up reply actions  

It's obvious if you go to the games and pay attention.

When Batum is on the floor it seems the Blazers do better. Especially at the end of games. He has ice in his veins.

by Natsthecat on Dec 29, 2011 12:18 AM PST up reply actions  

weird

the topic of the post is “which blazer is clutch?” , but the poll asks “who should sit?”

well, I think Jamal Crawford is the most clutch, and whoever sits at the end depends entirely on the game that player has been having and who’s on the court for the other team, not to mention injuries.

I think our definitions of ‘clutch’ differ, as you’re just asking who’s a finisher, not a clutch player, whereas I see clutch as someone who makes the correct play (usually shot) in the last moments of a game.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."

by thankyouforblaze on Dec 28, 2011 9:59 PM PST reply actions  

well the depends on the game the player is having thing

is not really nates strong suit historically.

I got so frustrated with Nate playing his rotation versus the hot hand last year I wrote a post about it

http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/12/15/1879390/the-dallas-game-anatomy-of-a-win-turned-into-a-loss

Nate has always put his rotation ahead of the hot hand. One of my biggest problems with him. If the helter skelter nature of this season breaks that habit of his that will be a good thing. I am not holding my breath though…

"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)

by PDXBuckeye on Dec 28, 2011 10:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I just went and voted for Batum

then realized it was for a sitter. by those options, sit Felton.
Batum is ice cold
Felton is tired

by blazerblaze on Dec 29, 2011 12:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Batum is ice cold, 32.1% ice cold that is

Seriously, this guy could go 1 for his next 100 and we still would have to hear how is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

by ebnerblazer on Dec 30, 2011 5:13 AM PST up reply actions  

This is a good time for nic playing 2 guard...

with Felton at Point and Camby in. But I like Jamal at Point with Wes in and LMA at the 5. I think either of those line ups would work.

by solid_soup on Dec 28, 2011 10:01 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

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