Zickgraf: Spurs Should Make $15-20 Million Offer To Blazers C Greg Oden
by Ben Golliver on Nov 3, 2011 9:48 AM PDT
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PrintTrevor Zickgraf of ProjectSpurs.com writes that the San Antonio Spurs should consider making an offer to Portland Trail Blazers center Greg Oden, who is set to be a restricted free agent whenever the NBA gets its spit together.
If you're an Oden optimist, you have good reason to think Oden might be the bargain big man of this offseason. While the Trailblazers made Oden the $8.8 million qualifying offer, would they match anyone offering him a long term deal? If you're a contender looking for some depth, is it worth the risk to offer Oden the mid-level exception for three seasons? Teams like San Antonio, Miami and Oklahoma City (Durant andOden, what a great story that would be!) would love the depth inside.
For a team like the San Antonio Spurs, a guy like Oden might be worth the risk. If you look at what a guy like Tyson Chandler did for Dallas last season, it's easy to see what a game changer a defensive anchor can be. Maybe Oden doesn't become this dynamic, game changing center, but what if he becomes a 3rd big man like Antonio McDyess became once he got healthy and signed with Detroit. At $5 million a year, that's a great option for team like the Spurs, or the Heat or the Thunder or even a team like New Orleans, who could use the size even if they bring back David West. Even if Oden injures himself again, the new CBA is reportedly going to have a stretch exception, which allows a team to waive a guy and stretch his payments over a number of years.
There's obviously a risk offering a multi-year contract to a guy like Oden, but the new CBA looks like it minimizes those risks, so why not offer him a three year deal. Maybe Portland matches the contract and then you go looking for another big. But if they don't, and Oden's knees are finally healed and stronger than before, well then maybe you got a game changing center. The point is the center/power forward market is incredibly thin this season, so this might be the year a team looking for some depth, you might be more content offering Oden $15-$20 million over three years instead of offering Aaron Gray $9-$12 million over the same amount of time.
Last week, Tom Ziller of SacTownRoyalty.com suggested that the Sacramento Kings should offer Oden up to $30 million.
Also last week, Oden noted on Facebook that he is once again able to run, but later deleted the message.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
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Unfortunately....
…I think we are going to get a lot of these type of articles. Lot’s of sportswriters are going to have the “Shazam!” moment of realizing a former highly touted, franchise changing, #1 pick, has the potential to be on the open market…even as a restricted free agent. I think the only thing you take from these statements from anybody or any team, is that Oden will garner high interest. If anyone thought Oden would garner no interest, or that The Blazers could resign him somehow on the cheap, or under the radar? That isn’t going to happen. Utlimately Oden will have lots of options to consider, and only a few of them are necessarily tied to The Blazers.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
That first paragraph made my stomach churn
Oden in OKC? I don’ t think I could deal with that very well. The Blazers made a mistake in not extending Oden while he was down. Maybe they tried and Oden and his agent wanted to test the market? The franchise, or the fan base at least, will have difficulty recovering from even a somewhat healthy Oden giving a contender 25 minutes of production on their way into the playoffs.
The remedy would obviously be to make some moves (signings or trades) to get some bigs in here to back up and play with LA.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Me too.
Oden & KD on the same team. That would really make us look like idiots (if Oden can become healthy).
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Nov 3, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Now we see why the word "troll" is in your nickname.
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
I don't know if Oden would go for that
it has been said in the past Oden kinda doesn’t like Durant. Not as a person but he just looks at how well he is done and know he should be on that same level. I would highly doubt Oden going to the same team as the guy everyone says we shoulda picked.
Who is Oden?
Once the season is canceled it will be 3 years since anyone seen a basketball in his hands.
Doesn't matter....
….the memory that he was as highly a touted #1 pick as he was, along with the sheer value of a talented big man…will make his untested potential once again a valuable commodity. Teams will pay for the gamble…even knowing it is a gamble.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
This is how every rumor gets started.
Hey, maybe the Team X doesn’t want Player Y for Reason A. Our team could use him for Reason B. He must be on the move soon!
Never mind that Reason B might be exactly the reason Team X will not get rid of Player Y.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Homework for Ben,
how many pictures of Greg can you find of him actually playing basketball in a Blazer jersey in the last 5 years ??
HMMMMMM.
just win baby !
It would be nice to see some,
instead of the ice and crutches. Been there, done that. As if the lockout isnt bad enough, we get more of this…
just win baby !
Greg who?
He will probably go with the team that offers him the most money. Blazers draft him, fans patiently wait for him to heal – then he cheerfully leaves town in pursuit of the almighty dollar! Prove us wrong buddy.
He can't leave unless we let him
Paul Allen will prove us you wrong
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Unfortunately?
Oden can accept the qualifier, entertain no other offers, renegotiations or extensions, play out whatever the single season becomes and then become unrestricted..and leave…
How Oden wants to approach this phase, and where he wants to ultimately end up is very much more out of The Blazers hands and into Odens.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Or
He could sign the qualifier, entertain no offers, renegotiations or extensions, play out whatever the single season becomes and hurt one of his knees again before the season ends.
This would cost him millions of dollars when hes go to negotiate his unrestricted free agent contract with another year or more of rehab still to do. I can’t see him turning anything down that’s around the 8-12 million mark for multiple years. I know the article said 5 million a year but that’s ludicrous. Portland would match that any day of the week and Greg would be taking a bath for this year loosing 3-4 mil. Maybe if he thought his knees were done.
Greg has no leverage to turn down anything that continues to pay his the qualifing offer for multiple years.
I think he has leverage...
…true, he’s taking risk that within the partial season he plays for us, or at any time before signing his next contract he becomes injured. But to an extent that’s the risk all players take…
And I think Oden has to proceed with the personal and professional attitude that he IS going to be healthy.
Is there risk that Oden could become injured? Absolutely. But it pretty much comes down to teams taking a gamble on an apparently healthy Oden vs. Oden gambling on his ability to remain healthy…
That would be where perhaps a team if they offered him a huge offer as a restricted free agent? Oden might be forced in his best interest to accept…then it becomes a question as to whether The Blazers want to match…
Unless Oden is audibly making loud creaking noises everytime he moves? I think he proceeds believing he is going to be able to remain healthy and play basketball.
I’m sure he’d like to make as much money as possible. I don’t blame him. But the other truth? He’s already made million of dollars. Unless he’s been spending it very unwisely? Oden was pretty much set for life, barring horrible decisions, the moment he became a #1-#1 pick.
Even just accepting the Qualifier…and assuming a career ending tragedy…he will have made more money than I will make in my lifetime.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
He'd be crazy to accept the $8.8 million QO
$15-20 million for 3 years is considered a lowball offer. $40-48 for 4 is more likely, and he’s going to get that offer from someone this off season. If you really think he’s going to turn that down, you’re crazy.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Krang was saying he would turn down the 3/15, not the 40-50.
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
With all that Portland has invested in him
IMO, Portland will match any offer with the same gamble the other teams would make the offer.
hg
by BBK on Nov 3, 2011 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I do agree with you,
But Greg like the Blazers is not sure what he can become. I think that is why they waited until the last second before the lock-out to offer the QO. they get to use the Lock-out as healing time. IMO, Portland will match any offer so I don’t think it would be the cash that moves him to another team. It could be the ungrateful fans. You have to admit, many has given him hell.
But it is all in Greg’s hands.
hg
by BBK on Nov 3, 2011 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions
this is funny
other team can give Oden tons of money and its OK, but if we do its crazy. Also, if Oden goes and plays some where else he’s good again (even though when he does play he’s a top 3 center), but if he stays with us he’s a BUST. I don’t get it.
by Daddygr33nJeans on Nov 3, 2011 11:18 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Ya, I have been thinking that also.
Is that darn him if he does and darn him if he doesn’t. Nothing worst then being in a lose -lose situation.
hg
by BBK on Nov 3, 2011 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose the question would become...
…if Oden receives and accepts a restricted free agent offer, where do you draw the line? I think15-20 million for 3 seasons, is a gamble The Blazers would easily not hesitate to match. So really, that offer is no threat to The Blazers at all. Infact, and offer like that? Would probably be one The Blazers would HOPE Oden would accept and thus give us the ability to match and have him for 3 years.
But the unknown, really is how crazy might some GM or franchise become? If a GM is really sold on Odens potential future? Or an Owner really sold on Oden? Could Paul “Toxic Offer” Allen be outdone at his own game?
What offer would become too much of a gamble for The Blazers to take? And conversely too great an offer for Oden to refuse? That number must exist, just don’t know what it is, or whether we will see it.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
I agree, we'd match that in an instant.
I’d worry about something more like $40 mil over 5 years.
"Say his NAME, Portland. Gerald Wallace is...awesome." -Dave, 4/9/11
Five year deals won't be allowed in the new CBA
And there were rumors this spring that the Blazers were going to offer him $40 mil for 4 years. I’m thinking an opposing team would have to offer him a near max deal just to get Paul Allen to blink.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Portland can still offer him a 5 year deal
not that they should
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
All it takes is a GM willing to make a really bad call
And give Oden WAY TOO MUCH. Not only in the history of NBA owners but even more so recently, owners have been giving huge contracts to questionable player.
Do I see it happening? Not really. But I wouldn’t be shocked if it did.
I’d love to see a team offer a front loaded contract against the blazers, like the blazers have done against Utah. For most owners it would create an issue, but in the blazers case it would probably be better paying more now and less later.
These kinds of articles make their authors look silly
Does any GM really think the Blazers wouldn’t match a 3 year, $15 million offer? It isn’t even debatable. What a joke. That’s such a low-risk, high-reward move that it’s a complete no brainer.
I think you have to approach 3 years, $30 million or more before it’s even worth your time as a rival GM.
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
Well that's an aspect too...
….if you are REALLY interested in Oden, and you are convinced he isn’t going to do anything but sign the qualifier and wait to become a Unrestricted Free agent, then why make an offer at all? Making a tepid Offer to Oden as a restricted free agent only serves to create the chance The Blazers match what might be what The Blazers would consider a GOOD DEAL. The best approach if you know Oden IS going to become a unrestricted free agent, is to sit back and watch Oden for the time he plays for us…THEN make an offer once he becomes unrestricted.
And I agree….I think 3 years 15-20 million? I think The Blazers would send a fruit basket with a thank you note to San Antonio if they made that offer and Oden accepted.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
the flipside
I don’t see any way Oden signs an offer that low. why take $5 million this year, when he can take $9? sure, he’s risking the other $6 million, but the upside is a much bigger deal in 2012. And heck, even if he is hurt again, it’s hard to imagine him not being able to earn back that $6 million over several years.
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
I HIGHLY doubt Oden turns down any multi year deal he can get
After the injury problems he has had, the guy just wants security. If he is offered any multi year deal before he signs the qualifier I would be very shocked if his agent didn’t beg him until he signs it.
Interesting...
…but I think he’ll gamble that he can play out whatever partial season might manifest, or “part” of a partial that he returns to play in (he’s still rehabbing). You know, I think another possibilty is the season resumes…and Oden just mysteriously takes a lot longer to come back than expected…end of season? He’s a free man…whether he spent that season playing for us or rehabbing on Paul Allens dime….
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
yeah
even if he pockets the 8.8 million this season and doesn’t play a game, I can guarantee he will do better than a 2 year, 6.2 million deal in summer 2012. Thus, there is ZERO reason to sign a crappy 3 year, 15 million dollar deal this summer. No way he does that.
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
I strongly disagree
As I laid out just above your post, 3 years, 15 million is not very enticing when the alternative is to take 1 year, 9 million, play half a season, then be unrestricted.
My guess is Oden would turn down every multi-year offer that is not at least 3 yeas in length, and not at least 7 to 8 million per year. I sure would if I were him.
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
I agree with those numbers
I think we would be fools to offer anything less then 4 years 30 mill.
Yeah, it would be interesting if a team offered him something like 5 years $55 million
That’s e.g. in the ballpark of what Memphis offered to lure Josh Smith away, and Atlanta still happily matched (5/58). Or what Joakim Noah got. Or Andrea Bargnani for that matter (5/50).
It could only be a 4 year deal if it was another team's offer
And the raises will be a lot lower, so it’s going to be tougher to muster the capspace to get a contract that size, as a team would need to offer him a higher starting salary if all they can offer is 3.5% annual raises (as opposed to 10.5% for Bargs, Horford, and Noah). Based on the contracts you mentioned, that would put him in the 4 yrs, $40-48 million, which doesn’t seem unreasonable.
Besides, Oden isn’t very likely to become a bad contract, imo. He’s more likely to just retire and move on with his life if he can’t fulfill his contract.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Probably not
Latest talks were that the amnesty clause will only apply to players who were under contract with a team as of July 1st. As of that date, Oden was a free agent not signed to any deal even though he had a pending qualifying offer from the Blazers – but unsigned. Basically the amnesty clause is designed to help teams deal with a past mistake to cope with new CBA regulations (notably a steeper luxury tax), not a carte blanche to make a new mistake/take a new huge risk.
under the reported terms of the amnesty...
…Portland, nor anyone else, will never under any circumstance be able to amnesty Oden. the amnesty is going to be restritced to players under contract as of July 1, 2011.
"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave
we do have the best crack at him
in all likelihood, unless Greg secretly hates Portland, which I don’t believe.
He has a bond with the team, and he could very well want to ‘come through’ for Portland.
Really, we have seen here that the MAJORITY of Blazer fans totally support Greg.
We (e.g. PA) can, and probably will match any deal as RFA. I expect we will also offer Greg an optoin for a multi year deal immediately on establishment of the new CBA. That way he knows he will get big money regardless, and the team knows Greg will not be beating the Blazers ON the court.
Wake me when the game is on.
The Ziller article
was based on the notion that the Kings could sign Oden with the understanding that he might miss the first half of the season, and that they could always take amnesty on him if his body ultimately exploded. But once details of the proposed amnesty program came out (it would be for existing but not new contracts), Ziller retracted the notion that Oden would be a viable fit/risk for the Kings.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
He'd still be a good option
Amnesty Garcia or Salmons, then use a big offer to DeAndre Jordan, Oden, or Marc Gasol to get the team’s salary up to the minimum. It’s a better risk to have a young big man taking up all the salary space you’re required to use than to have a bum like Salmons taking shots and hampering the young guys’ development.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
The Greg Oden RFA prediction program:
1. Did Greg accept the QO? If Yes, goto A. If No, goto 2.
2. Is the other team’s offer anything less than insane? If yes, goto B. If No, goto C.
A. Take your hairbrained ideas to the next fantasy draft, fanboy.
B. Portland waits 6 days and 23 hours, and matches your offer. Say goodbye to your FA season.
C. Portland waits 6 days and 23 hours, and let’s you have him. Say goodbye to your FA season, and your cap space, and your job if Greg doesn’t bring you an instant championship.
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
Then there's the Greg Oden conspiracy theory:
Where Greg becomes an RFA and some small-market, eastern conference team that owes Paul Allen a favor throws a straight MLE offer at Greg and we match easily.
"You can pretty much flip a coin to see which Portland team will show up: the dark-horse world-beaters or the mixed-up eggbeaters" - Dave
Haha, or the league owned Hornets
Stern: Hey Paul, I appreciate your commitment to the owners’ position during the collective bargaining negotiations. How are things going with Oden?
Allen: Um, well…to be honest, I’m [expletive]ing bricks right now. I’m really worried that Kahn or Larry Bird will do something stupid and offer Greg a max contract. I’d really like if someone would just offer him the MLE, so I could match that without worrying about putting the team in luxury tax hell.
Stern: I’ll see if there’s anything I can do about that…
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
but, Greg would have to ACCEPT the offer first, right ?
Instead of wait for a better one.
Wake me when the game is on.
If this new "stretch" clause
is designed to reduce risk for owners, then why wouldn’t the Blazer’s just make the offer?
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