I remember someone a while back doing a fact/speculation type post that I enjoyed reading a lot. The premise of it they would list the facts of the situation and then a few possible, reasonable motivations for those actions that of course will not ever be released to the press.
I think people do not give Paul Allen enough credit. He is a very smart dude. I have never met him personally but through his business acumen and various interviews I can assure you he is not some idiot who lucked into his situation. Follow me past the jump for what this has to do with Brandon Roy
1) Management knew most of the meniscus in Roy's knees was gone. They performed the surgeries (more or less) and of course this would not come as a shock as the two treatment options for a torn meniscus are removal (much quicker to rehab from) and essentially season ending surgery. They had talked with Roy and decided on removal something like 3 straight times to get us where we are right now
2) They knew this fact before and when they signed Roy to his contract.
3) Paul Allen knew there was a lockout coming
4) When close to a deal earlier, Paul Allen shows up for the first time in the negotiations and they fall apart. Some call him the "Grim Reaper"
5) At this time, the BRI split was more or less decided but the players wanted the owners to budge on a few "systematic" issues
Now for the speculation:
Paul Allen knew about Roy's knees and signed him to the contract with the intention of amnesty-ing him all along. When he heard that the new CBA would not include both a luxury tax and salary cap-saving amnesty, he flew right there and put a stop to that nonsense. How could we rebuild if we need to when Roy's contract is on the books? In this scenario, Paul is paying Brandon an absurd amount of money as thanks for saving the franchise and getting the fans back in the building. Certainly all the PA haters would not fault him for granting Roy millions of dollars to play for another team? Maybe they didn't think it through.
The alternative essentially is that management did not know about Roy's knees. In that case, yes it is sad that he might be amnestied as he was the franchise savior (now LA) but how can you fault management for cutting a max contract guy playing spot minutes off the bench for the next four years? These contracts are what the amnesty provision is for for God's sake!
In the end I expect the Blazers to take a look at Roy and then either amnesty him in time to offer a full MLE (brings us under luxury so we don't have to use the 3mi) or let him play the season and see if he can get some magic back.