Wages of Wins thinks Kevin Love deserves $45.6M/year

Yikes.

Also, by this measure, players like Jose Calderon, Ramon Sessions, and Marcin Gortat deserve more money than Lamarcus Aldridge.

It's figures like this that make me realize Dave Berri's "Wins Produced" is pretty ridiculous.

7 months ago Arby 22 comments 1 recs |

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All statistics are ridiculous.

It’s an attempt to predict the future based on past results. Which is fair enough. Some things can be repeated. You add vinegar to baking soda and you get a model volcano. You can be pretty sure that any time you add vinegar to baking soda, you will get the same results.

Statistics are an attempt to replicate this on something that is far more random, and has infinitely more variables. No basketball player goes out and has the exact same game each night. Even when most of the variables remain constant. No one knows when the “bad” game or the “good” game will happen. All you can do is get a general idea that “this player is good, and that player is not.”

Advance statistics are merely trying to take into account more variables. But all this does is try to objectify the subjective argument of whether someone is a good basketball player or not. Lebron James is objectively one of the top players in the world. But all the objectivity in the world can’t account for his tendency to not show up when it’s all on the line.

So, statistics can give a blurry picture at best. Per, Win Shares, Whatever advanced stat you want to choose. all have some head scratchers in there. Turns out that the subjective test ends up being the most accurate one in sorting out who is good and who is not. And that is the most disconcerting thing I’ve ever written.

"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man

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by T Darkstar on Nov 2, 2011 4:06 PM PDT reply actions

To be fair, let's avoid lumping guys like John Hollinger or Kevin Pelton in with dopes such as Dave Berri.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Nov 2, 2011 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Do the Wolves even make 45.6M/year???

Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.

by jenstcy on Nov 2, 2011 4:11 PM PDT reply actions

Slowly but surely, Dave Berri will fade away into obscurity.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Nov 2, 2011 4:35 PM PDT reply actions

should have happened already

WoW has always criminally overrated rebounds, especially the defensive kind, which about 75% of would have went to a teammate if the player being rated didn’t happen to grab it.

"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave

by douglast on Nov 2, 2011 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Really

The person who does the best job discrediting David Berri is David Berri.

by Royster on Nov 2, 2011 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions

LOL

Kevin Love produced 25.8 wins in 2010-11? Minnesota won 17 games. I’m wondering what other teams he produced wins for….

by Storyteller on Nov 2, 2011 5:15 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

Most of the Wolves players have negative WP48-- all but Love, Rid, Web, Tolliver and A-Rand

Win Shares provides a more reasonable perspective— crediting Love for 11.4 win shares and placing only Flynn in negative territory among Wolves regulars.

long live the jd.

by jksnake99 on Nov 2, 2011 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions

David Berri’s WP and WP48 frequently spits out results that are dramatically different from the other metrics out there- Pelton’s WARP, Hollinger’s PER, Dean Oliver’s offensive and defensive rating, etc. Nothing new.

long live the jd.

by jksnake99 on Nov 2, 2011 6:09 PM PDT reply actions

It's an interesting take that might help you to identify a player who is valuable but gets relatively underrated by other statistics

Say a Joel Przybilla, Kris Humphries, or a SG who seems like somewhat of a chucker in his shooting stats but adds a good all-around game. Kevin Love probably is a very valuable guy even though he plays on a bad team surrounded by mediocre players. Would I pay him more than any other NBA player? No way. Would I pay Humphries more than Rose or Durant or Dirk or Rondo or Horford? No way. Is Brook Lopez one of the five worst players seeing regular minutes in the NBA? No way.

In terms of absolutes, it produces some clear jokes that indicate the system should be tweaked with considerably. In the other systems, you find a lot less guys where people are thinking “what the hell is he doing so high or low on that list”.

by Norsktroll on Nov 2, 2011 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions

"or a SG who seems like somewhat of a chucker in his shooting stats but adds a good all-around game. "

The type of wings that WoW singles out in a positive light are low-usage, ultra-efficient role players such as Landry Fields. Yet, while Fields is a nice player, his efficiency would most likely plummet if his usage was upped to even a medium level (i.e., 20% USG%).

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Nov 3, 2011 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, that baffled me

I’m too lazy to dig through WP48, but any way you could provide an example of “a SG who seems somewhat of a chucker in his shooting stats but adds a good all-around game” that other stats underrate but WoW values? Admittedly there’s a lot of subjectivity in what we may consider a chucker/good all-around good game, but the absurd equating of FGA to TO in WoW would seem to rule out anyone with a hint of chucker to their game.

by Royster on Nov 3, 2011 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, PER is the catch-all stat that'll pick out the type of player Norsk was referring to above.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Nov 3, 2011 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions

In 2010-2011, SG Marcus Thornton is that type of player.

Thornton’s 16.52 PER ranked him above average, even though he was an inefficient scorer with a 52.5% TS%. Lo and behold, it’s Thornton’s high usage (i.e., 23.1% USG%) that gave him a slight boost in PER.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Nov 3, 2011 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Kevin Love deserves $456,000 a year

no NBA player should make $10 million, period.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."

by thankyouforblaze on Nov 2, 2011 6:43 PM PDT reply actions

The game of basketball makes hundreds of millions of dollars

Yet you feel the owners should pocket jut about all of it?

(The part of my brain that come up with clever signatures is locked out)

by thomasikehara on Nov 2, 2011 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions

That's the biz

I actually think that NBA players generally being immature multimillionaire spending machines is good for the NBA. It gets the NBA a lot of extra press as players tend to mix with movie stars/etc.

I don’t mind a player making 8 million a year instead of 10 million though. Especially if we’re talking general middle of the road player. Pay Lebron 30 million if you want but a good majority of NBA players are definitely overpaid. There’s no reason guys that never even get game time should get 1 to 2 million + and then a bonus check at the end of the year for the BRI difference.

That definitely makes no sense. Lebron will get his money even at 40% BRI. Lower BRI should help keep scrubs’ contracts under control though. Agents had their hand in this problem just as much as anyone.

by poorwebguy on Nov 2, 2011 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions