On Monday David Stern will announce the cancellation of the first 2 weeks of the regular season. At that moment the Players will have lost more money this season then they would lose this season if they agreed today to the Owners 50 percent BRI split offer.
Larry Coon goes through the numbers in this short article that should be required reading for the players.
Not only are the players going to lose money this season, but unless they get everything they are now asking for (get 53 percent) by Dec 16th, they will lose money over the 6-year length of a new CBA according to Coon's calculation.
Coon goes on to write:
That’s $120 million that separates them. Of course, that’s just in year one. Over the course of a six-year agreement, assuming four percent growth per year, the total is closer to $796 million.
Over a six year agreement, the players would burn through the $796 million in a little under 10 weeks. If they [the Players] continue to hold out for 53 percent, and the owners hold firm at 50 percent, the players will reach the break-even point around December 16th. If the sides settle for 53 percent past that date, then the players would have been better off by taking the owners’ offer of 50 percent before games were cancelled.
Of course, the players are not going to get 53 percent since that is their current offer. In the end, they will have to settle for less than that and that will move their break-even date even closer. If they eventually split the difference (51.5 percent) the break-even date occurs after only 5 weeks of the season is cancelled (using Coon's numbers). That should happen within the next 3-4 weeks. And I doubt the Owners will even move off their 50 percent offer.
Finally as Coon points out, with an average NBA career being less than 5 years, most of today's Players won't even have 6 years to recoup what they are about to lose in salary by refusing the Owners current offer.
It's just Math 101.