Kevin Pelton's Computer Goes Gaga Over Greg Oden
by Ben Golliver on Sep 9, 2010 3:04 PM PDT
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A few weeks ago, right before Rich Cho started to lower expectations, we took a look at how John Hollinger's computer wants to get frisky with Greg Oden in the back of a drive-in movie theater.
Hollinger's statistical projections expected big things from Portland's oft-injured center this season and I joked that Basketball Prospectus's Kevin Pelton - who has spent the entire summer writing his second book and taking breaks from writing to hype the Blazers on google chat - had his work cut out for him if he wanted to be Greg Oden's No. 1 Hype Man heading into training camp.
Never one to shy away from a challenge, Pelton pulled the levers on his laptop and cranked out his SCHOENE per 40 minute statistical projections for Portland's starting five.
As you can see, he didn't disappoint.
Bang! 19 and 12.
Pelton's numbers for Oden are pretty close to Hollinger's. Indeed, across the board there aren't many differences between the two systems. With that, I sensed an opening.
"Come on, KP2, you can do better than that," I goaded.
Stroking the fur of one of the 37 cats he now lives with, Pelton responded, feigning disinterest. "I've shown you my three-year WARP projections based on similar players that show Oden having the most future value of any Blazer, right? "
"Why no. No, you haven't."
"HERE YOU GO," he typed in capital letters so that he could be heard over the sound of an electric can opener going to town on some Purina.
WARP, you'll remember, stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. WARP is one of the most accurate and proven aggregate statistics that aims to measure an individual player's overall worth. Basketball Prospectus defines the term...
Wins Above Replacement Player. Based on performance and playing time, the wins a player has created as compared to a replacement-level player seeing the same minutes.
The chart above, therefore, ranks members of the current Blazers in order of their projected distance above an average replacement player over the next three seasons. The column on the far right sums these distances to magnify the overall impact. In the rough draft version of this chart there was actually another column even further to the right that just read "Od-en! Od-en! Od-en!" over and over and over but I had to cut that out because of space constraints.
(You can find more three-year WARP projections here.)
Pelton wasn't done however. His feline now properly fed, KP2 had a moment to send over a final flourish. "Because my three-year WARP projections are looking so far into the future, they aren't quite as reliable. Still, check out SCHOENE's current comps for Oden. I think you'll be impressed."
A "comp" is dork shorthand for comparable and refers to other players from recent NBA history that produced similar statistical profiles. Way back in 2009, I explained how KP2 derives his comps using similarity scores that take into account a range of factors like age, experience, height, weight, minutes played, usage rate and a whole bunch of other statistics.
His similarity scores and the resulting comps are always fascinating. This year, for example, Nicolas Batum's comps include Rashard Lewis and Mike Miller. Brandon Roy's include Michael Finley and Kobe Bryant. Jerryd Bayless's include Sebastian Telfair while LaMarcus Aldridge's include Antawn Jamison.
As for Oden's? His comps remain, despite three injury-plagued NBA seasons and scant production as a pro, in a class of their own. I've decided to place them in a grey box for emphasis.
Hakeem Olajuwon, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan
With that, Pelton adjusted the championship belt he purchased from Rasheed Wallace on eBay and went quietly into the night, confident that his computer had secured the title as Most Devout Greg Oden Supporter On The Planet.
As he crested the horizon, heading to the Seattle Storm Western Conference Championship victory parade with his 37 cats in tow, Pelton looked back over his shoulder and muttered...
"Oh yeah, by the way, these projections -- especially the three-year WARP projections -- don't consider health."
Dang.
But still!
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
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I had a great bit of fun reading this. Thanks on a gray day.
I am no longer "young" enough to know everything!
There's no reason to believe these fun projections
The " points" projection for MIller, Batum and Oden are optimistic given those guys are not in their primes and not offensive focus for the team. Roy’s and LMA’s points look low given they are star players entering their prime and are sure to be the focus on offense.
They are all per 40 stats
We can assume that Greg, Nic, and Andre will not be playing anywhere close to 40 minues/game, while Brandon and LaMarcus will be much closer to that threshhold
z
not familiar with WARP, but per40 projection is not that far off Oden's 09-10 stats
Oden’s per40 in 2009-2010 season:
40 min – 18.6 ppg – 14.2 rpg – 1.5 apg
KP2’s projection:
40 min – 19.6 ppg – 12.5 rpg – 1.6 apg
Hollinger’s projection:
40 min – 18.6 ppg – 13 rpg – 1.5 apg
I don’t think either KP2’s or Hollinger’s system is really hyping Oden up.
by iverigma2 on Sep 9, 2010 3:26 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Doesn’t make sense for his rebounds to go down, considering neither factors in injuries. Are 23 year old centers generally worse rebounders than 22 year old centers?
Actually, to some degree yes
Most players peak as rebounders extremely early in their careers (Rodman being the notable exception). Almost every dominant big had his best rebounding year within the first 3-5 years of his career. No idea why, but it’s true
z
Pau Gasol and Gerald Wallace are also current freaky exceptions.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Pendergraph above Miller, Camby, Cunningham, Bayless, and Przy invalidates this metric.
“WARP is one of the most accurate and proven aggregate statistics that aims to measure an individual player’s overall worth.”
Yeah, Pendergraph is worth more than Miller, Camby, Matthews, Cunningham, Bayless, or Przy. Yeah, sure.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 3:29 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Sorry there are too many bizarre results in that table to put stock in any of them.
Batum worth just as much as Roy – laughable.
Pendergraph – absurd – he’ll be buying tickets to get into a Blazer game in 3 years
Przy the 12th player in value – not to anyone that pays players to play basketball
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
… the one-year projections look at a comparable player’s per-minute Win% improving by whatever percent. Three-year projections only care about what the comparable player’s WARP was the next season and the following two.
I agree that it’s highly unlikely that the Blazers have the best chance to win the most games (individually and/or in total) in the next season over the following two. It’s just how the projection system works. It’s obviously not perfect, since it e.g. can’t project players learning to play better with each other.
"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban
The entire concept of projecting whether individual players will improve, stay the same, or regress
based on a population of “similar” performers is silly to me. Projecting what a large population will do based on what a large population has done in the past is possibly valid, but not projecting what any one unique individual will do. Even age affects individual players very differently. These are individuals, not populations.
Some of the stuff in this table just makes no sense.
Batum goes from 6.8 to 6.0 to 7.3? What accounts for the fall off in that middle year and then he bounces back better than ever the next year? Some astronomical line up corresponding to the month he was born?
Why does Oden play better this year and fall off in the next year? He’s coming back from injury this year and will need time to get his conditioning back, learn to quit fouling, integrate into the team, etc. Surely he will play even better the next year as his conditioning should be good from the start of the season and he will have learned a lot from having played a full season for the first time (hopefully). Or is the table projecting further injuries in that middle year?
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I RTFA. How does it answer anything I just said?
Why does Batum dip in the 2nd year?
Why does Oden get worse after a year of experience and being in condition to start the nest year?
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Even Hari Seldon couldn't predict individual's futures.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
“Risk also tends to increase the further out we look, which helps explain why even with the more robust samples of comparable players we occasionally see relatively young players projected to drop off from one season to the next.”
Are you saying there's a high incidence of young players dropping off in their 4th year
(assuming it will also be Oden’s 4th year for the model), and then bouncing back in the 5th year?
While I doubt that would apply to Batum, I’m virtually certain that won’t apply to Oden after he finally gets his first full year of experience and is fully healthy going into a season.
Why does this 4th year phenomena not apply to Matthews, Cunningham, Bayless or Pendergraph?
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions
With a small sample size of comparable players, it’s inevitable that there are going to be random fluctuations year to year. For some players, this is going to offset the inherent risk. For others, it won’t. You’re looking for a level of certainty that just doesn’t exist.
No, I'm not. I'm trying to find out what specifically in your model accounts for Oden and Batum
falling off in the 2nd year of your table. There is apparently some factor that applies to them but not the other players in the table on rookie contracts. Yet, this projection makes little sense if you know those players and their circumstances.
I’d also like to know why Joel falls off over 50% in his 2nd year. It’s apparently not age, because Camby is older and falling off much less.
I’m not looking for certainly or precision in your projections. I’m looking for some specific explanation of what appear to be the huge anomalies.
I can imagine that Pendergraph is just a statistical anomaly because he has played so few minutes. But what’s the value of the chart if it contains so many other unlikely projections (Joel, Batum, Oden’s 2nd years, Batum worth as much Roy)?
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m trying to find out what specifically in your model accounts for Oden and Batum
falling off in the 2nd year of your table
I just assumed it was the pending lockout and blamed it on that. 1998-99 deja vu
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Well, in all fairness, Joel Pryzbilla may be near the end of the line, as I wouldn't be surprised to ...
see him have only a few rough years left with his broken-down body. Oh, and in spite of probably not being long for Portland, Jeff Pendergraph — who I agree is nothing more than a 12th man — should have himself a journyman career of several seasons.
Do these projections include any assumptions or projections about health? I don't see how they could.
So saying Joel is near the end of the line wouldn’t be true (unless you are projecting that he won’t fully recover, in which case how could you then project that Oden will fully recover?) irrespective of health since he will be 31 in Oct, which I don’t think is that old for a big man, particularly one that plays Joel’s style.
So assuming health isn’t somehow being projected into these numbers, do centers with similar playing styles to Joel suddenly lose more than 50% of their value when they turn from 31 to 32 (a year from now)? I doubt it, but if so wouldn’t that age factor affect Camby who is even older and who’s value doesn’t fall off nearly as quickly? But even if that were true for centers of only Joel’s type on a large population sample size, it still has zero applicability to any one individual (in this case Joel).
To be clear, if Joel doesn’t recover fully his value will decrease. It may go completely to zero if he can no longer play at all. There is just no way to predict his future health status to make a projection of his value for this table, so I doubt that is included as a factor.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Batum is on the up escalator
LMA is on the opposite one
WARP casualty alert! Sell when high!
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We agree about LaMarcus Aldridge being on the downswing, while I also appreciate Nicolas Batum.
Yet, with regards to Batum, I’d like to see Andre Iguodala’s three-year projections, since those numbers would be intriguing — regardless of whether they might back up my advocacy of him or put a dent in it — to view here.
I second that
A comparison of Iggy’s projected numbers next to Batum’s would be interesting
| #11 | #7 | #9 | #15 | #52 |
I suspect they won't be 10 mil/year better
on the ol’ WARP-O-METER
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
comparing guys on rookie contracts
to veterans is disingenuous and silly. batum will not cost 1 million per year in his 5th season. he’ll certainly cost MLE money at a minimum.
for the next 3 years
Iggy will cost his team 10 mil more than Batum
but he won’t deliver 10 times the production
by the 4th year, I expect them to be very close statisically
and Nic to be a Blazer
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
You should look at it in a bit more detail than that, though. So, with that in mind, let's ...
open up with a simple trade proposal focused on getting Andre Iguodala in Portland that involves minimal player movement.
FROM CHICAGO
Future First-Round Draft Pick (Via Charlotte)
FROM PHILADELPHIA
Andre Iguodala
FROM PORTLAND
Joel Przybilla
Rudy Fernandez
Nicolas Batum
TO CHICAGO
Rudy Fernandez
TO PHILADELPHIA
Joel Przybilla
Nicolas Batum
Future First-Round Draft Pick (Via Charlotte)
TO PORTLAND
Andre Iguodala
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=33ocq37
For next season, the cost increase would be a rough estimate of Iguodala’s salary (i.e., $12,345,250) and the salary of two-minimum-level veterans (e.g., Fabrico Oberto & Earl Watson @ $854,389 apiece) subtracted by Joel Przybilla, Rudy Fernandez, and Nicolas Batum’s salaries (e.g., $9,848,740). In the first season, the difference would thereby be $4,205,288 × 2 (i.e., luxury tax hit) for a total of $8,410,578.
After this season, though, things get really fuzzy when trying to figure out the math. That’s ‘cause of how it’s impossible to project the upcoming CBA changes, future transactions, and what’ll become of Batum when he’s up for restricted free agency in 2012.
12, 13, 14, 15 (almost 16)
Those are the guaranteed millions that are due to Iggy, in the next 4 years
Nic is set to earn 1.2, 2, 3…then whatever the market says he’s worth in 2013
Portland has themselves a real bargain at the SF. I think they’ll be keeping him
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Uh, 2012-2013 is a projected qualifying offer -- which may change after the ...
new CBA — and Nicolas Batum will certainly be earning a higher salary by that point in time. So yeah, Batum will be a free agent come the summer of 2012.
Also scary to compare our guys to others
Roy’s 3-year total of 20.4 is comparable to… gulp… Bill Walker (19.2), Gallinari (20.2), and Beasley (18.1)!?! And way less than Wade (37.3), Lopez (31.4), and Rose (28.8).
Lets hope WARP isn’t that accurate.
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
heading to the Seattle Storm Western Conference Championship victory parade with his 37 cats in tow,
It takes a lot more than fancy computer manipulation to herd cats
that’s why “the system preferred by the head coach” should always be taken into consideration
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Regarding the WNBA, Brian Agler is further evidence that a slow-paced, defensive-minded coach is ...
the way to go with basketball. Unfortunately for the Portland Trail Blazers, Nate McMillan’s use of the flawed SOS pressure defense shows a gaping hole in his system.
I’m also pleased that the Phoenix Mercury — which is coached by Corey Gaines, who’s a Paul “Guru of Go” Westhead disciple — had a crappy season this year, for its brand of offensively up-tempo and defensively porous basketball belongs at the YMCA instead of the professional level.
Yeah, but can Brian herd cats like Nate can?
Navigating 12-15 young men through the ups-and-downs of a 6-month, 82 game, cross country caravan and making sure they’re all ready to play hard every night is a skill in itself
Some coaches flame out, others get tuned out by their players after a few years (Skiles, Musselman, etc) Others are grinders. Bernie and Nate are in that category
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Pelton mentioned this in a Wingcast a while back
Jerryd draws a very strange group of “similars,” including Bassy, Monta Ellis, maybe Jason Terry IIRC—essentially a list of busts and star combo guards with nothing in the middle.
Jerryd Bayless = Vinnie Johnson
Vinnie was 23 his rookie season, in which he played just 38 games. He averaged 13 & 4 over 81 games at age 24, his second year.
Jerryd just turned 22, and seems headed toward just that kind of instant offense, 6th man future, hopefully here. He does need to expand his game though. The NBA knows all about his Summer League penetration move, and one would hope that he has the sense not to turn into a Billy Ray Bates (one trick pony).
by damonrayhymer on Sep 9, 2010 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Jerryd Bayless isn't a sharp-shooting mid-range marksman who'd also crash the offensive ...
boards and defend the perimeter extremely well for a sixth man combo guard, so he’s no Vinnie Johnson.
Even when early in his career with the Seattle SuperSonics, you can plainly see the stark, stark differences between Johnson — with efficient mid-range shooting being the most obvious thing that sets him apart here — and Bayless; thus, as far as I’m concerned, this comparison is poor.
I was using age rather than playing years
which means Jerryd hasn’t even played a single NBA game yet, when compared to VJ, and won’t until 2011-12.
by damonrayhymer on Sep 9, 2010 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Better not show this to Rudy.......
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
I think these types of stats are, by & large, a crock
Except, that is, when they support my contention that, barring further injury issues, Greg Oden will dominate.
Re/ those potential injury issues: do they have SCHOENE, WARP, & COMP stats for medical/ training staffs?
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
by hurryup09 on Sep 9, 2010 4:36 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
"A crock" seems a little harsh
They may not be perfect, but they’re the best we got and probably more accurate than you expect. There is variance in all statistics, i.e. bad beats in poker. In any field there is no such thing as a foolfproof statistic, which is why we call it “probability” instead of “certainty.” Just because a predictive statistic is wrong sometimes doesn’t make it invalid, it just makes it mathematically normal.
z
Do you think your B average 8th grade kid will perform the same in the 9th, 10th, and 11th grades
as the statistical average of 100 kids that were B average 8th graders 4 years ago?
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions
That sounds reasonable
If you have a more accurate predictor of his future performance I would listen
z
Some of these kids will become A students in high school and earn scholarships to prestigious schools
and some of them will drop out of high school, regardless of what the average of the last 100 kids did.
The point is you can’t predict how they will turn out from the average of “similar kids”. So why would you try to label your kids when they are in the 8th grade?
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm just sayin'
If we’re trying to predict (which, as fans, we always are) this is probably the most reliable method we have. You’re basically arguing against the use of statistics in decision-making as a whole.
Let’s use a poker analogy. If I’m dealt pocket jacks, I’m going to play them fairly aggressively every time. Usually I’ll win, but many times I’ll lose as well. Does the fact that I lose sometimes mean that it’s a bad idea to bet pocket jacks?
z
That would depend on your skill level at playing Poker and who you were playing with.
A great player will get more out of the same hands than an unskilled player.
Suppose I wanted to stake a poker player. Let’s say you are an above average player. Should I agree to stake you for the next three years based on the average development of other above average players? Not if that is all I know about you. But I might agree if I knew you were going to be personally tutored by Phil Ivey for the next 3 years. I.E. Your development as a poker player is far more determined by what you do as an individual to improve your game, than what any “average” of many similar players did before you.
I don’t care what the average similar player accomplished. I only care about what you are going to do to separate yourself from the average player.
(BTW, I can’t teach anyone poker, but if “21” is your game …)
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions
You’re basically arguing against the use of statistics in decision-making as a whole.
Statistics can be very good (when used well) at describing the past or current ability of a player. They are also helpful (but not infallible) at describing what a player may give you in the near future. But they say very little about what a player can or will become.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions
projections of future player ability are therefore qualified with "comps"
find as similar of players at an equivalent development stage and weight the projection accordingly. In general, however, projections are about normal trends rather than player specific prophesy. We aren’t labeling specific players (or grade schoolers) when we apply statistics to predict future performance. But we are using trends and assigning kids to groups.
That said, success in both sports and education is about beating “normal” and developing unexpected gems.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Sep 9, 2010 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions
But this post features a table of "player specific prophesy", hence my reaction to it.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
the post has to be taken in its entirety, then
“Because my three-year WARP projections are looking so far into the future, they aren’t quite as reliable. Still, check out SCHOENE’s current comps for Oden. I think you’ll be impressed.”
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Sep 10, 2010 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
projections are looking so far into the future, they aren’t quite as reliable
The problem with the table goes far beyond “aren’t quite as reliable”. The table has multiple gross anomalies, so it doesn’t make sense to use anything from that table.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 10, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
But they say very little about what a player can or will become.
That’s what scouts are for. But it’s an inexact science, so it doesn’t blog well
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I guess the good news is that Cho hired two more assistant GMs ("scouts"), and not two more computers
to crunch statistics.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
When viewing the statistical projections for Greg Oden with a side view of his stylistic manner of play on ...
the court, I keep coming back to one man: Artis Gilmore. Now, when comparing Oden to Gilmore, it’s hard to do statistically due to the vast differences in those eras — with the ABA’s existence and blistering pace being what most separates the then from the now — yet, their similarly ultra-efficient low-post scoring down on the block is what ties them together.
I agree and have mentioned that in the past. And it has nothing to do with statistics.
Greg is stylistically similar to Gilmore. We’ll see if that changes as he learns some basketball skills.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
When it comes to Greg Oden comparisons, this is still my favorite post of mine.
“I abhor the Bill Russell comparison, for it was 100% wrong even from Greg Oden’s short time at Ohio State. Stylistically, Oden and Russell were like complete opposites. I also cringed any time someone mentioned Hakeem Olajuwon or David Robinson, since those two legends were remarkably unique athletic marvels for men of their height. Shaquille O’Neal was another terrible comparison, too, since the "Big Aristotle" in his prime combined brute strength, smooth athleticism, and refined skill that’s rarely seen in a 7-footer.
Heck, when Oden came out of Ohio State, the Patrick Ewing comparison was the spot-on one. As it was, their similarities — especially as ultra-efficient forces inside on offense and dominant interior defenders — were immense. Ewing, however, did alter his game somewhat in the NBA — as he developed a mid-range and baseline jumper, moved further away from the basket, and saw his scoring efficiency and offensive rebounding numbers consequently take a dip — while Oden has instead stayed true to form when healthy. Oden, therefore, isn’t a modern-day Ewing, but rather a modern-day Artis Gilmore.
Now, on a similar, yet slightly different note, Dwight Howard is an interesting cat to analyze from a scouting perspective when comparing him to past players. In fact, here’s a comment of mine about Howard: "[He] combines Darryl Dawkins’ supreme athleticism and above the rim offensive game, Moses Malone’s tenacious rebounding, and Alonzo Mourning’s shot blocking prowess on defense."
http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/7/2/1549576/friday-free-agency-news-thread#41133966
At any rate, though, here’s a snipet of game footage involving Gilmore back from the 1981 NBA Playoffs, which was during his time with the Chicago Bulls.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u4lUfJXXyk
http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/7/30/1597639/mythbusters-portland-trail-blazers#43346982
So yeah, I’m not sold on the above WARP statistical comparison of Oden to Howard or Olajuwon — as well as Yao Ming and Tim Duncan — since those guys are all different types of players.
I think the WARP projections
Just underline that, when Oden plays, he produces at a rate that compares with some very good players.
It isn’t so precise that it can say he is EXACTLY like them, but what is?
The comparisons where LMA and Bayless show up with guys we don’t want them to be compared with, also just underlines that even guys who produce well early on can have their careers not go as positively as once hoped.
With Oden, his injuries and #1 pick status kinda make the average fan not think much of his career thus far, but these sort of thingies just show that he actually has been pretty good (aside from the fouls). Of course, the stats and projections don’t mean anything, Oden-wise, until he actually stays healthy.
Morty
#52
Artis Gilmore
Now that’s more like it….Was he the # one pick in the draft?
[Good defense "releases" your offense]
Greg is more athletic than Gilmore was
Artis was all about power, no finesse at all. That’s the main reason why I like the comp. I don’t want Oden to ever settle for jumpers, like Patrick Ewing or David Robinson. He should keep the pressure on the interior defense, as Gilmore did
A healthy Oden should be able to run faster, block more shots and pass the ball much better than old #53, so it’s not easy to find a direct comparison without combining the skills of some former NBA big men, like Marvin Webster or Mutombo for the shot blocking, and Shaq or Wilt for passing ability out of the post
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Oden could become more than Artis was, but right now it's a pretty good comparison.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions
That's not to say I want Mo Lucas to deck him with a right hand.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2010 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions
According to AST%, Greg Oden is much closer to Artis Gilmore than Shaquille O'Neal.
In fact, O’Neal and Wilt Chamberlain blow Oden out of the water as a post passer. It’s not even at all that close, either. Regarding BLK%, Oden so far is up there with Elmore Smith concerning well-known shot blockers of the ’70s.
Greg has played 82 NBA games, so far
so yeah, I’d expect him to be a little behind 2 guys who each played for 15-20 years
It should be possible to watch a young player demonstrate a skill (court vision, timing and passing creativity) and project that he’ll be able to duplicate and improve on that skill as he has more opportunity and gains confidence. So I expect Greg will average more than 1 apg for his NBA career, especially as he becomes more of a focus for opposing defenses
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I'm with you on Oden's future passing ability
he showed some serious court vision working as a passer out of the post.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Sep 9, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Is there a way to flag a post for say, 10 years?
And be reminded to look at it then?
O’Neal and Wilt Chamberlain blow Oden out of the water as a post passer. It’s not even at all that close, either.
If Greg can learn to stay out of foul trouble, and his team learns how to get him the ball, he can easily reach teen pts and 10+ reb + 2 blk a night, and I don’t think 4 apg isn’t out of the question this season, either…
But even if you’re right… I think Gilmore, Roy, LMA, Dre and Batum can win a title…
Even by 22 in Orlando, Shaquille O'Neal was a way more prolific post passer ...
than Greg Oden. TOV% was undeniably in O’Neal’s favor, too, so it’s just not even close whatsoever in any way, shape, or form.
Yep, those 2 assists per 36 min are a game-changer. Having watched all those games, I can pretty safely say that it took the Big Head several years to master the low-post passing game
(GO’s turnovers, btw, are almost never on passes)
I guess it has to be if you didn't get to see those games.
But really, it’s pretty common knowledge that Shaq really turned the corner when he learned to punish double-teams by passing to cutters. I remember his first three or four years, announcers would spend half the game deploring his FT shooting (which he never overcame) and half practically begging him to find the cutter (which he learned to do very well, eventually).
Heh. I was a pretty obsessive fan back then (my college years...Shaq's my age).
I even saw him in the McDonald’s All-American Game. That one coast-to-coast was mind-blowing.
While Greg Oden is fine at not making "passing" turnovers, he makes ...
numerous upon numerous “ball handling” turnovers. That clearly indicates terrible handles.
http://www.82games.com/0910/09POR19.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR15.HTM
Even if Greg Oden alters that flaw in his game, it'll only directly ...
cut down on his turnovers and not boost his assist totals. So, even though I do expect Oden to make some strides in that department, Shaquille O’Neal — who did improve as a passer year-by-year for his first five season — came into the league as a better passer in Orlando than #52 has thus far in Portland. In the end, ultimately, it’s way too bullish and impractical to expect Oden that will ever reach O’Neal’s status as a post passer.
I actually disagree. I think O'Neal was a worse passer than Oden is now.
The Orlando offense ran through Shaq almost every time down the court. He almost always shot into the teeth of the double-team, but naturally he had to pass some of the time.
Oden has been a fourth option on offense, and has rarely attacked against double teams, choosing instead (wisely) to pass to a shooter or (less often, due to our no-motion offense) a cutter.
See, this is the limit of AST% and TO%: they bear little resemblance to the facts on the ground, and, coming up on 20 years after the events in question, are pretty distorting, imo.
You're final paragraph has it completely backward, for ...
if anything AST% and TOV% — which are adjusted for pace and playing time — are unbiased calculations compared to your distortion of what you visually saw way, way back in the day.
They're not adjusted for role in the offense.
On those ORL teams, EVERY offensive set ran through Shaq. He’d have to either pass or shoot on virtually every play.
That he averaged only one more assist than GO over 36 minutes is actually evidence of his incompetence in that regard.
And that wasn’t way, way, back in the day. It was just a few blinks of an eye ago.
I think our lack of running offense through Oden
Has artificially lowered his assist percentage.
Watching him, he’s been a very good passer from his first game. The more he plays, the more he shows it. His lack of offense run through him regularly enough, combined with his constant injuries and massive foul problems (plus teammates not being adjusted to playing with a real center) have made his assist percentage much lower than his actual passing skill would suggest.
Oden is a very good passer, ESPECIALLY for a young raw center. I think, besides Pau, Oden can become the best passing center in the game.
Just needs to work on his damn fouls.
Mortimer
#52
I'd still take Andrew Bogut, Marc Gasol, Brook Lopez, Al Horford, and maybe ...
a few others over Greg Oden as a post passer regarding contemporary centers.
Also, it's somewhat unfair for David Robinson to mention him in the same sentence ...
as Patrick Ewing. Regarding Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon, a gigantic part of what made them legendary players was their versatility on offense both backing down inside and facing away from the hoop.
With Ewing, he did more harm than good for himself on offense by adjusting his game coming out of Georgetown — for he went from a powerhouse force in the paint to more of a finesse center — which probably adversely affected his scoring efficiency and prowess on the offensive glass.
I must have missed all of the Admiral's post moves
my lasting memories of David were of him catching the ball on the right baseline, and either shooting his LH jumper or pump-faking and driving around his flat-footed defender. Robinson got a lot of points at the FT line (he was the perennial league leader in attempts before the Mailman came along) and he scored in transition and off the offensive glass. But if he did much drop-stepping (or putting his right shoulder into the defender while shooting a hook shot) that’s sure not how I remember 50
Now, when Duncan came along I did see some post moves; Tim’s style was different from David’s and I remarked about it at the time
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Just to nitpick
The Mailman was around for years before the Admiral was in the NBA, and well established as King of the FTs.
It doesn’t make the rest of your post wrong; I just like to be a Petty Patty Nitpicker.
Morti’mer
#52
they probably took turns leading the league
I just remember they both wore a path on the paint walking to the FT line against the Blazers, back in the day. I’d like to see Greg do the same, as he receives more and more touches
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Greg Oden will never put the ball on the floor quite like either David ...
Robinson or Karl Malone, but he should get hacked a fair amount just by backing down on guys. No matter how someone does it, getting to the line is getting to the line.
After watching some YouTube clips of David Robinson, I concede that nearly ...
all of his moves were of the face-up variety — weather it was a mid-range jumper, baseline dribble-drive move, or transition bucket — thus, it seems like I incorrectly compared him to being fully similar to Hakeem Olajuwon.
After checkout out some of those Robinson videos, I’d have to say that the person who most resembles him on offense today may very well be Chris Bosh. Bosh, of course, couldn’t hold Robinson’s jock strap defensively — for #50 was a stalwart on that end of the court — but their offensive moves do seem similar.
Oh, and before anyone says that Bosh and Robinson played different positions, Bosh handled the center position frequently in Toronto; furthermore, Robinson was so versatile that he even started at the 3 a few times in San Antonio — with Will Perdue at the 5 and Tim Duncan at the 4 — and here’s some box scores from the 1998 NBA Playoffs against Phoenix in the first round and Utah in the second round to prove it.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199804230PHO.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199805090SAS.html
you doubted the memory of two4larue?
I find this lack of faith…disturbing
Jusst kidding. Some random things just stick in my memory. Like, I can still remember Jack Sikma’s pump fakes and set shots from the right baseline, and how Mychal Thompson used to defend Jack as well as anyone, back in the day
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
No, I didn't doubt your memory. For some dumb reason, I viewed both ...
Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson as being similar — even though that’s not the case — which is probably ‘cause I was younger when I saw them on live on TV and, as a result, my recollection is skewed. Plus, I tend to watch way, way more clips of Olajuwon and lumped Robinson — who I hadn’t watched for awhile until just now — in there with “The Dream” out of habit.
But yeah, after refreshing my memory it’s pretty clear to me that Robinson played substantially more like a 4 on offense than a 5 in his prime. Heck, he almost played like a power-oriented 3 down on the baseline to some degree — especially with Tim Duncan, who was a high-post 4 — which is crazy to think about due to him being 7’1" tall.
Agree that Robinson-Bosh is a good comp, re: how they attack the defense
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't think Ewing made that adjustment of his own volition--his body forced him to do so.
He became a very good finesse center with a lovely touch from mid-range, but was never the dominant inside presence we all expected him to be.
For me, the best comparison has always been the center I grew up watching: Nate "The Great" Thurmond
And Maurice Lucas had the same take after GO’s pre-draft workout with the Blazers.
Granted, Thurmond was a higher scorer than GO will likely ever be. But stylistically and physically, the two are very similar. Ewing was probably the second-closest—that is, before he fell in love with that fadeaway baseline jumper.
There are obvious problems with some of these other player models. E.g., Hakeem was certainly shorter than his listed 7’0". I recall seeing him standing next to Shaq on the court, and Shaq was a full head taller.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
Nate Thurmond was a terribly inefficient, overrated face-up high-post scorer who doesn't ...
fit the mold of a low block scorer like Greg Oden. If anyone from that era is stylistically similar to Oden, it’s Walt Bellamy. Unlike Thurmond, Bellamy was an efficient scorer and a true pivotman rather than a glorified 5/4.
Oh, and with regards to Thurmond, there’s a reason that the Warriors won a championship as soon as he was dealt to Chicago. That’s because Clifford Ray could score efficiently and was a probably better man-to-man low-post defender than Thurmond, whose forte was weakside help defense, defensive rebounding, and shot blocking.
Also, if anyone on the Portland Trail Blazers is similar to Thurmond, it’s Marcus Camby. Lastly, I’d argue that Thurmond is one of the most highly overrated players in NBA history.
This is nice.
But we’ve been doing Oden projections for half a decade now.
All I care about is what happens on the floor at this point.
(Though this is a nice article.)
In Bayless I trust.
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><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><>
then take heart in Oden's 2009/2010 performance
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Sep 9, 2010 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions
the one where he played 20 games and got injured again?
who would take heart in that?
i take heart in his 2008 / 2009 where he was healthy save for a knee on knee collision and a foot sprain when he was out of shape.
i suspect he will have an injury plagued career but when you really look at 2008 / 2009 he was largely healthy that whole year.
injuries, at this point - are still random chance
until we have legitimate reason to believe otherwise, neither you nor anyone else can predict injury.
So yeah, Oden’s play in 2009/2010 was something to behold.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Sep 10, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
The Nic and Pendy projections seem crazy high, even for this coming year
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
Regarding Jeff Pendergraph, I wonder if the comparison didn't account for the potential diminishing ...
returns he may have with his DRB% from last season and, moreover, overstated his high scoring efficiency.
Small sample size definitely will throw these for a loop
Batum played something like 18 mpg his rookie year and less than half a season his sophomore year, which could account for some of his insanely high projections. I seriously doubt he shoots last years percentages over 82 games at 30+ mpg
z
Here's the part of the WARP formula that accounts for d rebounds:
Again, we need to take rebounding into account to get to major possessions, starting with the defensive rebounding percentage.
TmDReb% = DReb% + LgDReb%*(1 – DReb%)
Available rebound opportunities are easier at the defensive end because we already know how frequently the opposing team is getting to the free-throw line and attempting shots from the field. We merely need to estimate the opposition’s field-goal percentage based on its FG Rating (TmFGRat).
OppFG% = (Teammate TmFGRat/2) / (Lg eFG%/LgFG%)
Then we add up the possible ways a defensive rebound becomes available: A missed (non-blocked) shot, a missed second free throw or a blocked shot.
OppRebOpp% = (1 – OppFG%)(1 – TmFTAPos – TmBSPos – TmFTOPos) + .56((LgFTA – LgFTM)/LgPos) + TmBlk% + Blk/Pos + .8*LgBlk/LgPos
We then bring back the two rebound factors introduced in the offense section to come up with our final team Defensive Rating.
TmDefRat = TmDefRatMinor + ((1-TmDReb%)OppRebOpp%RebFactor1*RebFactor2)
http://sonicscentral.com/warp.html
I’m too lazy to figure it out, but I’d be interested if you did (or if KP2 posted again here) and said what it was.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I don’t think Pendergraph’s rebounding has much to do with that. More about his super-high FG%. But it’s mostly just one of those weird things that happen with three-year projections. His 2010-11 projection is much more reasonable.
The formula is just a way to establish what defensive rebound percentage the imaginary team of four average players plus the player in question would have.
But that formula does take into account some diminishing returns, right?
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Dogs are idiots.
And chuck wagon doesn’t come in a chuck wagon.
:)
by 1ofthe7 on Sep 9, 2010 8:59 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
You're probably joking, but I have to come to the defense of Feline Nation: cats are only jerks when raised by jerks
They’re like people that way. Good point about Purina, though. I’ve only seen the dry variety.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
OMG
Did you guys know that, when healthy, Greg Oden is good?!?!?!
I
by joelor on Sep 9, 2010 6:40 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Keep the faith! Don't let nobody talk you down!
"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban
you're right
but the season is so damn far away
I
by joelor on Sep 9, 2010 9:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Kpelton, does the projection take into account Foul Per Game? It is the main reason Oden only played 24 minutes per game last year.
Anyone else getting the feeling
That Ben has unrequited feelings for Kevin? All the snarkines. The cat jokes. The insults. Classic displays of covert affection. Very cute. I hope it all works out for you two!
by PoliSam on Sep 9, 2010 7:31 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
according to the chart.....
… Rudy Fernandez is still a 6th man after 3 years.
by 1ofthe7 on Sep 9, 2010 8:55 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Pretty much agree all the way down the line, but...
I’ve been saying since we drafted him that the championship team is Oden’s team…
We need to lock Nic down, IMO, before we worry about Greg, if we can get him 6 yrs, not max…
I agree with Dre’s gradual decline, but suspect he’ll still be above that # this year.
Same for Camby.
If Bayles is that low in ‘10, he won’t be here in ’12.
But I think KP2 musta switched Wes and Pendy’s name on the WARP chart…
My Thoughts
In my opinion the only reason oden rates so high is he doesn’t have the body of work the other guys have. Its looking more at potential where as the other guys have played alot of games and have an accuarte number, as a die hard blazer fan i want to get stoked cuz some dumb numbers say oden is the man but I already know he is i don’t need these things to tell me. All i need is for him to be healthy play a whole season and hoist a Championship Trophy Above his head!
Why the f*** was it between that and Muhammad!?!
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