A player groups approach to the rotation

Positive Blazer food for thought.

This was a good post. I think Rudy would play off Miller better than he has any of our other point guards in the past. Miller is willing to penetrate and muddle a defense than Steve Blake was (I was one of the few Blake fans). Miller right now still sees the court better than Bayless (I know there are a lot of Bayless fans. He’s shown a lot of potential to maybe be “the guy” but Miller just has the advantage of having way more experience). Rudy thrives on broken plays and broken defenses more than most Blazers. It’s a reason a lot of us think he’d be a better fit somewhere else. We just play a very slow, deliberate brand of basketball that doesn’t lead to broken plays one way or the other. Rudy needs guys like Miller more than the Blakes and Roys and Aldridges of the world. Not that Miller is better than all of those guys. It’s just the style of play fits.

Also, from what I remember last year I think Oden played with Miller better than he did with anyone else. I don’t know if it’s the coach or the players, but it doesn’t seem like most of our players are willing to just toss it to the post players and let them go to work close to the hoop. Usually the emphasis seems to be spacing and passing and getting the clean jumper. Miller is the exception, however. He doesn’t have a pretty jumper and he likes feeding the ball to the big guy. Rudy actually tries to do this more than most of his teammates too, he just makes a lot more mistakes than Miller doing it. Still, Oden will benefit from having these guys on the floor more than most of the rest of the team probably.

If we’ve got Oden playing the 5 position, I’d go a step further and maybe encourage Camby over Aldridge here on the 4. I think Aldridge benefits a lot from Miller in running the fast break, but Camby is a better (and more aggressive) passer and he works harder at getting rebounds. I think he’d contribute more (in this lineup) in the half court game. He’s able to hit a cutting Andre or Rudy (another difference from these two and the rest of the team: they both occasionally cut to the basket) and he’s probably the last guy on the team that will make a real active effort at getting the ball to Oden in a favorable spot.

Like you said. Not the best players on the team, but I think this would be a lineup that could potentially be better than the sum of its parts. Certainly I’d imagine the Oden fans and the few remaining Rudy fans would like to see these guys playing together.

Personally, I’d give him as many minutes as his conditioning and foul trouble allow. Far past time to take the kid gloves off, and I’m going to scream every game I see Oden ending up with 4 fouls and only 25 minutes played. In the 20 games prior to his injury last year, Oden 9 times played 28 minutes or less, despite finishing with 4 or fewer fouls. That is criminal. Only once was he allowed to foul out.

I wish more people would recognize that the game is 48 minutes and managing the rotation involves trying to optimize the whole thing, and not just the starting lineup.

Basically we have two very good ball-dominating guards, so it makes a lot of sense to build rotations optimized for them, and I like the ones shown in the OP.

I’d add a few notes:

- We could, should and did last year run plays for Camby. He’s a great high post passing big man, and both LA and Oden will benefit from working with him.

- Agree that Rudy is a good entry passing guard, although I’m surprised he’s still with the team. Are we really thinking of trying to keep him around?

- The best guard with Oden might actually be Bayless, because JB driving the lane and forcing the defensive big to come help leaves Greg wide open under the hoop…

I’m not sure how all that adds up to a minute by minute rotation. The team has a lot of options and flexibility though. And I’d be hesitant to try to predict anyway, because guys get hurt, guys get traded, and Nate is a serial monogamist with rotations anyway (staying loyal to one for a while, but changing it all up when it gets stale).

I think the Blazers have much bigger plans for Matthews than 14 minutes per game. Otherwise, why go after him so hard. I also don’t think Miller can pass more minutes on to Bayless. I see the minutes played per game more like:

PG – Miller 28, Bayless 20
SG – Roy 36, Matthews 12
SF – Batum 30, Matthews 12, Cunningham 6
PF – Aldridge 36, Camby 6, Cunningham 6
C – Oden 28, Camby 20

I think this idea could be expanded somewhat, but you hit the two main ideas.

I’d simplify this down to two pairs: Bayless/Roy and Miller/Oden. My reasoning:
1. Like you said, we need to see our potential backcourt of the future (BCOTF, I’m trademarking it now) in action to decide if it’s feasible.
2. Roy can dominate the ball, Bayless should be able to spread the defense.
3. Miller feeds the beast better than anyone on the team.
4. Camby can play either 4 or 5, alongside either Oden or Aldridge. He’ll fit in wherever. Your reasoning on including him is sound, but it’s sort of unnecessary because he’s so flexible.
5. Although you’re completely right about Rudy’s fit alongside Miller and Oden, it’s just not gonna happen. And he’s not nearly as important to either of those two guys. Plus, Matthews should have those backup SG minutes – he’s a natural SG, and defends them best I believe.

Anyway, interesting post, good content. One thing I think you should edit in to the original post is a total showing how much time each of your triads spends together on the court – because that’s the point, right?

I like this, rec…

You have to look at minute allocation by player grouping, really… And I’m more visual, so would lay it out in a chart, like this:
-———————————————————————————————————————-
                                        BIGS (4’s and 5’s)
-———————————————————————————————————————-
Clock 210987654321|210987654321 = 24 *2 = 48 mpg * 2 = 96 BMPG
First Quarter of Half | Second Quarter
Oden XXXXXX XXX|XX XXXXX = 15 *2 = 30 mpg
LMA XXXXXXXXX |XXXXXXX = 17 *2 = 34
Camby XXXXXX| XXXXXX = 12 * 2 = 24,
Pryz/Pendy XXXX = 4 * 2 = 8
-———————————————————————————————————————-
                                   WINGS (2’s and 3’s)
-————————————————————————————————————————
Nico XXXXXXXXX | XXXXX = 16 *2 = 32
Roy XXXXXX XXXX|XXX XXXX = 14 *2 = 28
Wes XXXXXXX| XXXXXXX = 13 * 2 = 26
Dante/Babbitt |XXXX = 4 * 2 = 8
EW/Rudy – DNPCD
-————————————————————————————————————————-
                                     SMALLS (1’s)
-————————————————————————————————————————-
Dre XXXXXXX | XXXXXXX = 14 *2 = 28
JB XXXXXX| = 6 * 2 = 12
AJ | XXXX = 4 * 2 = 8
-—————————————————————————————————————————-

The 5 Bigs have 98 minutes to share and could do it 34/30/24/8. Of course, injuries will play havoc with this, but we have two potential reserves to fill in, and take an expanded… The important thing for me is that Oden, ideally, plays 3 5 minute shifts per half. Run hard, big fella. And he plays only with either LMA or Camby in there with him. (Play the "P guys" with LMA, so he can shoot if necessary, while they bang…)

I think we’ll see Dre, JB and AJ at the point this year, and while I really don’t expect their minutes to line up like this every game, I think Nate will trot out AJ.

The wings are really congested, so Rudy really has no place to go – hey, I know – put him down in the D League! He’d shine, and be better trade bait! Prolly would just go back to Spain, I know…

But Nico, Roy, and Wes should likely take up all of the minutes, like the Big 3 do at the Big position, but we’ll throw the same 8 minute bone to Dante and Babbitt, and hope EW is in the D League and Rudy is now a first round pick…

It will be Miller, Roy, Batum, Oden and Aldridge – if Oden is healthy. The backups will be Bayless(1/2), Matthews(2/3), Cunningham(3/4), Pryz and Camby(4/5). Babbitt will also make the travel squad. This leaves one slot. And for that slot, we will have Williams, Johnson, Pendergraph and Rudy. The draft and the signing of Matthews was executed with the obvious expectation that Rudy was not going to be here this fall. His dissatisfaction, after all, was well-known by the Blazer brass well before he and his agent entered public politics.

I don’t believe Rudy belongs any longer in the first 10 – regardless of whether or not he comes back. He certainly isn’t going to replace Oden, Pryz, Camby, Aldridge, Cunningham, Roy, Batum, Miller, Matthews or Bayless, and I can’t see the Blazers leaving Babbit home either.

As such, the fact that Rudy is still signed by the Blazers doesn’t mean he’ll play much – if at all. He was already down to spot minutes at the end of last year – and now we’ve signed Matthews, who we aren’t paying the big bucks to to sit on the bench. And Matthews has one thing Rudy will never have, and that is the ability to defend both the 2 & 3.

So, Rudy – signed or not – doesn’t get any minutes from me. At best, he’s a third option at the SG, and I’d put both Matthews and Bayless in front of him there-making him the 4th option. As far as SF, I’d put both Batum and Matthews in front of him there as well. I’m tired of Rudy’s defensive liabilities at the 3. He simply doesn’t have the frame for it – and never will.

Theres no way Oden doesn’t get more time than that without foul trouble