A Good Bet?
by philthebballplayer on Sep 7, 2010 10:31 AM PDT
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PrintA few weeks ago I was talking to my dad and I was watching the news and then John Canzano came on. He started to say how the Traiblazers were a team that if they were lucky would get into the second round and how he didn't see them as a championship threat whatsoever. Much to my surprise my dad said he agreed with that and I immediately disagreed and on the spot made a $100 bet that they would be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference this year(I was thinking Portland, Lakers, and Thunder/Mavericks top 3). I began to think about it more and I still feel pretty confident that they can pull it off with the current roster.
My question to you: Is this a good bet from my side?
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Canzano is a gas can...
Everything he writes and says is inflammatory and an attempt to prop up his column and his radio show.
He will bag on the Blazers all year and try to bait people into reacting. He has done the same thing for so long now it has become tiresome.
by Rip City Reign on Sep 7, 2010 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Well you described journalism in a nutshell
Anyway, that radio station has a murky and symbiotic relationship with PA and the Trailblazers. Now Canzano and that station are big into pimping the republican candidate for governor. They took a page from NewsCorp and FOX. The newsmakers and the news outlets are officially in bed with each other. You can book that. This subject will generate more attention in the coming weeks as Canzano and other assorted climbers come out and attach themselves to the republican juggernaut.
As far as the bet I think it’s a good bet because we’re still on a rising trendline. 3rd or 4th seed is definitely the target for us. I just wish one of the Blazer players had the courage of Bill Wallton or Maurice Lucas. Those guys were lions. We shall see!
Politics again????
I don’t want to hear your political views. You should pay for your political ads. Canzano is a waste of time!
by MemoriesOf77 on Sep 7, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I for one am interested to hear everyones thoughts in this political season.
As a state and a country, we are facing some very big problems. Is the answer to turn the state over to Dudley who has never held public office and has demonstrated little detailed knowledge of state government. His campaign is almost entirely bank-rolled by the state’s business establishment and CEO class wealthy. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? I think it is worthy of discussion.
by upper left corner on Sep 7, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here ya go
The status quo is not doing the job, on either side. Time to shake things up a little bit maybe? Or just let the failures doing the job, past and present, to keep failing? Easy decision for me.
If you have nothing constructive to say about someone, I prefer that you say nothing at all.
"If Jumping to conclusions, Kicking others when they do not do well and Launching into senseless tirades were Olympic Events, some people around here would be Medal Contenders". Me
Here's a question to ask
is the failure they’re facing something they could have controlled? If not, then what is your issue with them really?
I’ve been away from Oregon for too long to have an answer to that question, but when I look at candidates I look at them not just by what they accomplished but by what tools they had to accomplish it.
An example would be nate. I see flaws in his coaching, but he’s also taking a rag tag injured team and managed to squeeze the most out of players and we’ve limped into the play-offs.
Is changing out Nate for dunleavy Terry Porter a good idea? I don’t think so. Is trading Nate for Dunleavy a good idea? I’m not inclined but i’m more open to debate there than Porter. The Zen Master? Maybe, although I think we need to be closer to the brink of championship for him to be truly effective.
The problem i have with voting the other side to shake the status quo is that the other side takes that as permission to maintain THEIR status quo.
If I really felt the way you did (I actually don’t for the most part) then I’d vote third party for a qualified candidate (not all thirds are remotely qualified)
"The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Volunteers and officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net."
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/olybb/news/story?id=5509394
Yes, he's bankrolled by big silent corporate and religeous interests
but what’s more alarming is his refusal to make to make clear and honest representations. He refuses to discuss the policies he would enforce or enact as a governor. He refuses to tell the voters what he really believes concerning any issues related to the working class. The last I heard Portland and the state of Oregon was a last bastion of the middle class. But hey, he was a Blazer so he must be fine. Right? And since he was a Blazer he’s naturally entitled to all that love from the radio station with a close relationship to PA and the Blazers. Yeah, it all makes perfct sense..
Paul Allen and Dudley are close?
Hardly. Allen has given 4 times the donations to Dudley’s opponent. That is Allen’s right.
My understanding was Allen was all in for Hillary Clinton. That’s his right too.
Where did I say they were close?
You are fabricating words and attributing them to me. Stop.
Just trying to keep this civil...
I think parkinglotj misread your original comment. I know I did on first reading. “And since he was a Blazer he’s naturally entitled to all that love from the radio station with a close relationship to PA and the Blazers.” There’s two ways that can be taken (does “with” refer back to Dudley, or the radio station), and we both took it wrongly. Not fabricating words, just an honest misunderstanding, at least I’m guessing that’s what it was.
I wonder who you are going to vote for : )
COMPLETE SATIRE AHEAD, READER DISCRETION ADVISED.
Oregonslee talking with some undecided voters, “Now I don’t want to influence your vote in anyway, but here is what I know about Chris Dudley” he said:
“He once was seen stealing Halloween candy from small children”.
“He plans on moving the state capitol from Salem to Lake Oswego”.
“He thought the Salem witch trials were a fine idea”.
“He wants to eliminate taxes for those making a million dollars a year or more, and raising them 100% on those making 20k a year.”
“He wants to pass the Keep Women Barefoot and Pregnant Act in his first 90 days”.
“Why if you don’t believe me, go watch another neutral observer like Keith Olbermann”.
Sorry I could not resist when I saw the tone of some of your posts here.
I've never seen Keith Olberman but I take it you're informed by TV
That’s a good way to go.
Au contraire mon frere
Just using a comparative analogy here, you whipped out the “Fox News” card, and I simply raised you with Keith Olbermann. I am actually pretty center-right in my politics, but I have to admit that I find liberals more amusing given their absolute antipathy toward many things I would consider American values.
Rec for being willing to talk about politics
As long as it is clean, not focused on unsubstantiated criticism, and not spammed wherever there is a potential connection.
In Bayless I trust.
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You mean
you don’t want to listen, even when it’s related to the Blazers.
injury qualifiers are always required
especially when it’s the Blazers we’re talking about
Roy
LMA
Oden
Miller
Batum
lose any of the starters for a stretch of the season and #3 becomes a bad bet. Even Bayless and Camby would be sorely missed (depending on Greg/Joel’s status)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Top 3 team =/= getting into 2nd round.
I’m not super vocal about Canzano since so many hate on him, but I don’t disagree with him on this point. We are a good team without question, but we haven’t won in the playoffs yet, and our biggest question is still Oden. If he’s healthy and dominating then sure, we gotta be in the discussion, but if he’s hurt… then were still going to be a 2nd round team.
If we’re lucky, everyone will stay healthy.
finishing 3rd should make it easier to advance
but I agree, I’d exchange a few regular season wins (and playoff seeding) for post season series victories, any year
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
A team built around Roy and Aldridge is always going to be playoff competitors
Which I believe would include deep post-season runs occasionally. Our last 2 playoffs we have faced an eventual WCF opponent. Against Houston we were unready to go that deep in playoffs and last year we had major injury problems, but in both cases we had a hard fought series and showed our competitiveness with conference finals type teams.
I don’t see Oden as a necessary piece to getting past the first round. I really think that a healthy Roy and Aldridge have the potential to get past the 1st round about 2/3 of the time. Now we aren’t going for 2/3 the time, we want something that will ensure we get past first, second and even past the final round, and Oden is one of the few pieces that can do that.
I don’t know about top 3 seed, but we are in the post season discussions just from what is known about Roy and Aldridge. I don’t think people realize how good of cornerstones they are for the franchise and what they mean regarding it’s future. Because of the previous 2 match-ups the Blazers get underrated, and are given no props for what they accomplished in each.
by Sir.Ludo on Sep 7, 2010 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like your bet.
Barring major injuries, I think you have a very high probability of success.
by upper left corner on Sep 7, 2010 12:37 PM PDT reply actions
I made a bet with a fellow Blazer fan at the OSU-TCU game that the Blazers would have more wins than the Thunder
He’s caught in the hype…I think I’ve got $50 coming my way at the end of this season
OTOH, I owe my cousin Doug an Amare jersey (he’s a Knicks fan) because the Blazers failed to get out of the first round last year. Damn injuries.
Portland will be
the second or third best team in the West, OKC isnt going to do what the “experts” are predicting they’ll do (which is 2 or 3 in the West) Portland will go head to head with the Mavericks for the second spot, most teams in the West dropped a peg or two by losing their star players (Boozer in Utah and Stoudemire in Phoenix) so Portland will pass them and not have to look over their shoulders. Portland will run away with the division title and will see LA in the WCF….. Heres to an injury free Blazer season!!
im sure Utah got that much worse.
If Sloan gets Jefferson to play any defense they are going to be a good team. Denver is hinges on what Carmelo does.
by hoodieNation on Sep 7, 2010 8:10 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Utah has Okur hurt, lost Boozer, Matthews, Brewer, and Korver
Even if Jefferson replaces Boozer fully (and I’d say he’ll be 80-90% as productive, what with switching systems, different skill-set, etc), I doubt they do more than hold even.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Yeah, it's a fine bet.
No sure thing, but the Blazers are a good regular season time that should be quite a bit better. I’d say 60-70% odds in your favor.
If you’d said home court advantage, at least 75% chance imo.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I would have asked for two years
and if I were given the extra year, I would have bet twice as much as you did.
—Dave
They may start slow
but I expect them to come on strong in the 2nd half and playoffs.
They will need time to jell as a team and their centers won’t be back to fully “game-ready” for some time.
Timing takes time.
In other words, sorry I think the first half-record will lower them in the “horse-race” results out of the money.
That’s OK, I really want them to do better in the playoffs anyway…
and I think the way there is accepting that Oden will be rusty and giving him playing time (and plays), even if it means a few more loses. Player and team development can be more important than regular season wins.
What’s the odds on Blazer’s winning WCF or Championship?
it would have seemed like a good bet last year as well
and that is why you might be in trouble. i hope ya win, because it’s always great to stick it to the Old Man and show him he don’t know everything , but i think finishin fourth woulda been a safer bet…
kObe iS thE aNtiChRiSt
by Brendan Holladay on Sep 8, 2010 6:53 AM PDT reply actions
3rd seed seems accurate
Without any homerism. Denver is an unknown with the Carmelo situation. Dallas should be about the same as always. Utah could surprise people, but they lost a big piece in Boozer. Phoenix and San Antonio are a year or two away from being lottery teams. I don’t think OKC is winning more games than last year without a decent big man (Krstc is not decent).
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
A good prediction, but a poor bet
I’d agree that a top three finish is the single most likely outcome. But there are many less happy scenarios:
- The Blazers could underachieve. It would only take one poor stretch to move them from the 55-58 win tier to 50-54.
- Two or more teams could overachieve. Candidates: Thunder, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Utah, and even Phoenix.
- Injuries.
Say each of those has a 20% chance of happening. A top-3 seed is the single most likely outcome, but your dad wins 60% of the time.
Actually that's not really how it works.
For independent events, you multiply. So in each case since the chance of that thing not happening is .8, .8 cubed is .512. So it’s actually around a 50-50 chance with the odds you outline. If they’re independent events.
(A different way to put this is that those 20%s don’t all add up because if two or three happen at once, it has the same effect. So that overlap doesn’t count against you twice/thrice, but only once.)
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I think you got yourself a good bet
Especially when three teams that placed higher than the Blazers last year have gotten worse over the summer.
Phoenix is going to miss Stoudamire.
Denver is a mess right now.
Utah exchanged Boozer, Matthews and Korver for Jefferson and ? Plus Okur is out for a good while.
In a nut shell, the Blazers should inprove this year just from being healthier, and several teams are going to decline. Top four will be Lakers, Mavericks, Blazers and Thunder, and with a little luck on the healthy side of things, they should be in the top three.
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