No Oden, no problem we will survive

by Planet29 on Sep 28, 2010 8:56 PM PDT

Of all the stats tossed around in basketball I think there is one that most would agree is by far the most important one and that is the bottom line WINS. In the past two seasons Greg Oden has played in 82 games in which the team posted a record of 53-29(41 at home and 43 against non playoff teams). In the the other 82 games he did not play the team went 51-31(41 at home and 38 against non playoff teams). Playing a schedule with 5 more games against non playoff teams and much more healthy players around him than the team playing without him they still were only able to come up with only 2 more wins. Even in just the 2009-10 season in which was probably as healthy as he will ever be until the injury they still only went 13-8 playing a rather weak schedule(12 at home and 12 against non playoff teams), not great. Even with all the added injures after Oden went down(including 17 missed by Roy in which they went 8-9) they still managed to go 37-24(29 at home and only 29 games vs non playoff teams), not an easy schedule.
I am not saying the blazers are a better team without him on the floor, however for him to make a real difference as far as the team winning more games he not only needs to be 98.7% healthy he needs to play the minutes. The 22-24 minutes per game he has averaged in his first 82 is just not going to get it, he must be able to play at least 30 and really 35 minutes per game is the amount he should play night in and night out. Lets see him log that many minutes for say 40-50 games and see if the win total goes up or not. In the mean time the blazers will move on without him and make the playoffs, no problem, with a 56 win season. There is no reason to have him play now as it makes no difference, lets just wait and maybe someday he will make a difference.

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Even without Oden, the Blazers are still a competitive team

We can almost surely make the playoffs every year against tough competition. With no development from our players we might be stuck in the 1st round, but with even a decent amount of improvement from Aldridge/Batum we should be able to expect a couple deeper playoff runs in the next few years.

With Pryzbilla and Camby, the Blazers are built to survive the worst of Oden’s high risk, and the best able to capitalize on his high reward. If he proves unreliable this season, we should certainly keep him (though not at full $$$, we might have to overpay)

by Sir.Ludo on Sep 28, 2010 9:13 PM PDT reply actions

Pryz is injured

and his injury may be career ending. At the very best he won’t be the same Przy that we saw before. GO not playing is major. Surviving isn’t the mission statement. This was suppose to be the year the championship window opened up for us or at the very least WCF’s. This season will be considered a failure if we don’t get out of the first round.

by toolman on Sep 28, 2010 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions

At the very best he won’t be the same Przy that we saw before.

What proof do you have of that? Joel didn’t seem to think this was true.

by joelor on Sep 29, 2010 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Joel's a Gangster who won't quit.

What career soilder would readily admit his shelf life has expired? none that I’d wanna go fight with.

that’s joel. :)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Sep 29, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Oden will play this year.

Camby will start at center just as he did for the only part of last season in which the Blazers found any real rhythm. While many of the other contending teams in the West will struggle to find their groove at the beginning of the year, the Blazers have a real opportunity to pick up right where they left off when they were at their best last year. Oden’s presence will only add to the mix.

by looster401 on Sep 29, 2010 12:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Rec

That’s how I see it. Camby will be a really good starting center until Greg can overtake him by earning it with his play on the court. Picking him up was a really good move last season and was a reason I continued to be pro-KP.

"I come to you now, at the turn of the tide." -- Brandon "Gandalf" Roy, April 24th, 2010

by RedUniInLA on Sep 29, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Oden's problems are two fold

People forget there are TWO things that keep Oden off the floor regularly. The first is quite obviously Injury. But the second is something we may have forgotten since we have not seen him in live action for allmost a year and that is foul trouble. A look at NBA.com’s fpg stats show Oden by a wide margin leading the NBA in fouls at 4.0pg. Now some will look at this and say “wait! Jason Thompson is at 3.7!?!?” True but Jason’s MPG is 31.4 while Odens is a measly 23.9. I am personally leaning toward the trade Oden camp, not because he isnt a great talent but simply because i doubt, even if healthy Oden will reach his full potential. I would say this, before the whole “knee tendenitis” thing i would not have said that.

Now we have 4 years straight of disapointment and its just plain getting old. Oden is either the guy who puts us over the top or holds us back, no in between. We can’t afford to wait for him, we can’t afford to put our eggs in a broke down basket, and the players certianly could use some stability from our center spot. Right now we have NO stability at that position: Camby will start, his injury history is well documented- Oden: Nuff said- Joel: similar to Camby in that he ussually gets injured at least once or twice a year. I may be impatient but i do not think we can wait any longer for Oden. Boy do i hate the admit that.

by blazerbeliever97504 on Sep 29, 2010 1:47 PM PDT reply actions

Dwight Howard

is ALWAYS in foul trouble. When Oden was playing somewhat consistently (latter half of ‘08-’09, first half of ‘09-’10), I would check the foul per game stats semi-regularly. Greg hovered around 4.5 a game and led the league, as you said, but Howard was never more than a few tenths behind, usually floating near 4.0-4.1. Those numbers end up keeping Howard off the floor in some crucial moments just as they have for Oden, yet Dwight still manages to be in the discussions for both MVP and DPoY every single year. For defensive-minded big men whose game requires them to linger in and around the paint, foul trouble in an unfortunate side effect. Howard, in his 6 seasons in the league has managed to be effective in spite of that fact and I believe if Greg can stay healthy, he will as well.

by looster401 on Sep 29, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Oden is closer to Howard than most people realize...

…and not just in fouls.

Greg Oden’s 2009-2010 advanced statistics compare well with those of three-time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member Dwight Howard.

The following tables show that Oden and Howard are quite close in on-court performance. If the numbers were reversed for the two players, it wouldn’t be screamingly evident.

Player PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% BLK% Ortg DRtg WS/48
Howard 24.0 .630 .612 12.0 31.3 22.0 6.0 113 95 0.223
Oden 23.1 .647 .605 15.6 28.3 21.9 7.7 118 100 0.214

RANK IN NBA (AMONG PLAYERS WITH > 20 MINUTES/GAME)

Player PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% BLK% Ortg DRtg WS/48
Howard 6 5 2 11 2 2 4 49 1 4
Oden 8 1 3 1 7 3 1 17 4 8

(Documentation at: www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=9GiMl)

by Blaz06Draft on Sep 29, 2010 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Oden still light years away from Howard

If we could trade Oden for Howard it would make a HUGE difference. For openers Howard has averaged just under 36 minutes a game the past 3 years missing a total of 3 games. Oden in the 82 games he has played has only gone over the 36 minute mark a mere 2 times. So with Oden playing his 24 minutes and Howard with his 36 minutes per game and assuming they are both healthy and put up similar “based on 48 minutes” numbers, Howard contributes 50% more every night. Thats giving Oden a huge benefit of the doubt being that it is highly unlikely he could ever come close to playing 82 games in a single season, at this point in their careers as far as getting more wins for their team Howard is light years ahead.

by Planet29 on Sep 29, 2010 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions

it was a per-minute comparison, not a cumulative

you’re right of course, but everyone knows that already.

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Sep 30, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions

dam.. i hate hoping.

My spine still gets tingles imaging him coming off the bench for his first game back.

I hate hope.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!

by faith on Sep 29, 2010 3:59 PM PDT reply actions

Oden has been a huge disappointment

He has talent and is a good guy, but has not been able to produce on the court. I don’t care about extrapolating his production over 36 minutes and how well he rates. He has not played games due to injury and when he did play he was rusty, out of shape, low confidence or could not stay on the court due to fouls. Last year he was shaping up to make some strides in all that. Now he starts all over again. The refs will not give him the respect until he earns it FOR A WHILE. Like a year or more. Three years into the league he should have that respect from the refs – instead he has a rep for fouls. It wil lbe a difficult year trying to come back from injury, earn his place on the team and deal with the refs. Blazers really need him to be an elite team.

by LicketyBrindleDowntheMiddle on Sep 30, 2010 3:10 PM PDT reply actions