I dread a lockout…..

I used to be a moderate fan of MLB. When the 1994 strike cancelled the World Series, MLB lost me as a fan. I think I’ve attended 2 games since then – always with a large church group – and have bought $0 in memorabilia. The last time I watched a World Series game was when I was at a friend’s house and he, as a huge Angels fan, was watching his team. What was that? 2003?

Now a lockout in the NBA would probably not force me to stop following professional basketball. But the league just enjoyed an all-time high in yearly revenue and I shudder to think how an extended lockout would affect followership among casual fans (those who follow the NBA like I used to follow MLB).

It answers two issues I had posed a few months ago.

1) I suggested it might be possible for a new CBA to roll back the salaries or change the terms of existing contracts (even though the NBA had not done that before). Larry Coon agrees that is possible under a new CBA and cites precedence (the NHL).

It is possible for existing salaries to be slashed across the board. It has been the NBA’s practice to grandfather existing contracts into new agreements with new restrictions (such as further limitations on salaries or contract lengths) applying only to contracts signed after the new CBA takes effect. The league and players association are under no obligation to do this in the future, and could agree that new limitations apply retroactively to existing contracts or that all existing salaries be rolled-back by a given percentage to meet new revenue sharing targets. That happened with the NHL in conjunction with its 2004-05 labor dispute, in which the sides agreed to roll back salaries in all existing contracts by 24 percent.

2) I also suggested that 2011 free agents (this affects Mr Oden) might have an opportunity to escape to Europe once the CBA expires in June. Larry again seems to agree with that.

Another strategy at some individual players’ disposal is to ply their trade elsewhere should a lockout occur. This option is only available to players who will be free agents in 2011 because players under contract to an NBA team will be unable to obtain the necessary clearance from FIBA to sign elsewhere, even in the event of a lockout. A few players might leave for Europe or China, but there likely won’t be a sufficient number of defections to sway the negotiations.

This is really great article that should be required BE reading.

Everyone should read this. Rec for posting it.

 Book it

where you basically hate both sides, but don’t want either to lose.

I wonder if the league could respond to a decertification by making itself one business in fact. All the teams could merge into a single corporation, with each current owner given a share of ownership in the new entity. Would the government allow it? I think they would. It would have a monopoly over high level basketball, but it’s still competing with all the other sports.

could possibly lead to the cancellation of the entire 2011-12 season.

The media: where striking fear at every opportunity happens.

Responding to Hunter’s “baloney” comment, Stern stuck to his guns. “I grew up in Stern’s Delicatessen,” he said in June. “He has his meat wrong. This is substance.”

Wizard’s new owner calls for – and expects- a hard cap

“In a salary cap era — and soon a hard salary cap in the NBA like it’s in the NHL — if everyone can pay the same amount to the same amount of players, its the small nuanced differences that matter,” he said.

Let’s say that the owners get their way and get a hard cap. Now, some teams must cut players to get below the new cap.

So, is Portland looking at this as a possibility? We hear John Canzano and others crying out that Przybilla must be traded this year. But might keeping his existing salary serve as a hedge against having to make a cut or two if this scenario actually plays out?

Just a thought….

The lockout will eliminate the entire 2011-12 season. You watch. I can almost guarantee it. The NHL lost season is the role model here; it doesn’t matter that the NBA is more popular.