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Will a Blazer be the NBA's Most Improved Player this season?

One of the most difficult awards to predict each year is the Most Improved Player award.  But inevitably, every year, there are a handful of players around the league who make a sudden and dramatic leap forward in the quality of their play.  Often, these are players who have always had potential, but in their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th seasons, suddenly figure things out and hit a different gear.  Recent examples include last year's winner, Aaron Brooks, and the winner the year before that, Danny Granger.   Sometimes the award goes to someone who finds himself on a new team or in new system that is better suited to his talents, and he flourishes.  A recent example is Hedu Turkoglu in 2007-2008.  Channing Frye was a good example last year, even though he didn't win the award.  And sometimes it's just a case of finally getting playing time (the classic example is Jermaine O'Neal after Portland traded him to the Pacers). 

One of the reasons I bring this up is that there are an unusually large number of current and former Blazers who fit the profile of players poised to potentially make a dramatic leap forward this season.  That doesn't mean they will, of course, but it means we shouldn't be shocked if they do and if we end up seeing their names in the conversation for most improved player.  

Among the current roster, I think the most obvious candidates are Nic Batum and Greg Oden.  If either player can put together a full season playing at or above the level they played last year when healthy, they should both be in the running.  If either shows significant improvement over last season, which is entirely possible, he may well be the front runner for the award. 

Jerryd Bayless also fits the profile.  If he can become a more consistent perimeter shooter while incrementally improving the other aspects of his game, his name may well be in the conversation.  As a second year player, Wesley Matthews is also a possibility.  Finally, though this will be his fifth season, LaMarcus Aldridge has all the tools to put up numbers far more impressive than he's put up to date.  If something finally "clicks," he may be able to kick his game up a gear.   

Among former Blazers, both Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw find themselves in new systems where they will likely get more playing time and be counted on to do new things.  As both are still young and have room to improve, both fit the profile of an MIP candidate.  So too will Rudy Fernandez if he is traded -- as he is expected to be -- prior to the start of the season.  If Fernandez is traded to Chicago, for instance, he might even get a chance to start and benefit from playing off of Derrick Rose

In surveying the rest of the league, the following players strike me as other potential MIP candidates (though there are many): Stephen Curry (GSW), Paul Millsap (Utah, now a starter), Russel Westbrook and Jeff Green (OKC, playing on team USA), Robin Lopez (PHX), and Jrue Holiday (PHI, probably a starter). 

What are you predictions?  Who will win the MIP award in 2010-11?      

Poll
Which Blazer, current or former, is most likely to have a breakout season and win the Most Improved Player Award?
Nic Batum
98 votes
Greg Oden
326 votes
Jerryd Bayless
30 votes
LaMarcus Aldridge
10 votes
Wesley Matthews
9 votes
Martell Webster (Minnesota)
33 votes
Travis Outlaw (New Jersey)
11 votes
Rudy Fernandez (team to be determined)
17 votes

534 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 24 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Only Oden has the exposure to win an award like this

Batum certainly has the potential to do so, even without exposure, but I don’t see him being aggressive enough (selfish?) to make that kind of dramatic impact. Maybe not even if he was traded to a bad team. If Rudy was put on a bad team and started, I can see him being in the running.

Portland could coast along with their superior talent and stay right with us. Now that Portland woke up, the hammer cometh down.

Bayless > Daffy Duck after 3 cans of rockstar

by Batumshakalaka on Aug 6, 2010 11:21 AM PDT reply actions  

Not so sure about that

Aaron Brooks won last year and he wasn’t exactly over-exposed. He was on a non-playoff team that was rarely on TV. Granger won the year before that on a terrible Pacers team. I think the voting for this award pretty fair and meritocratic historically.

I do agree, though, that the award tends to favor those who improve their offensive numbers significantly, and Batum’s tendency to defer and be passive on offense might hurt his chances. Bayless on the other hand, is exactly the sort of player who might get noticed if he improves offensively.

Rudy is the real darkhorse I think. If he were traded to Chicago, for instance, and had a comeback year, he’d get a whole lot of attention.

www.ripcitydispatch.com

by Blazer Guy on Aug 6, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Brandon Roy

Just wait. He’s gonna have a really good year.

by AverageJon on Aug 6, 2010 12:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Brandon Roy has ZERO chance of winning most improved award

He could be LeBron this year, but he’s coming from being a 3-time all star. Ain’t going to happen.

Greg has got a great chance, for all the reasons stated. The only other guys on our current roster with any kind of chance would be Jerryd (would require Miller to go down or be demoted though) and Nicolas (unlikely unless he is surprisingly given many more “touches”

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Aug 6, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with this

Completely agree re: Brandon. Guys who have made All NBA teams are not in the running for MIP.

I think there is a small chance that Jerryd could get consideration without assuming a starting role if he were to improve significantly offensively and become a clear sixth man in the rotation. But I agree, the most plausible scenario where Jerryd gets MIP consideration is if he supplants Miller as the starter (with injury to Miller being the most likely scenario where that happens).

I can also see a scenario where LaMarcus get MIP. It would require him elevating his game to a level where he is a clear all star, though.

www.ripcitydispatch.com

by Blazer Guy on Aug 6, 2010 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think it's hard to see LMA get it

even if he bumps his numbers up to like 21 and 8 and makes the all-star game, that type of incremental improvement in year 5 of his career is just not MIP winning. It pretty much always goes to a guy who makes a BIG jump, usually earlier in his career. Hedo might be the best recent example of someone who doesn’t fit this mold, but he went from 13 to 19 PPG and helped his team improve significantly, and he won a pretty close race over Rudy Gay and Aldridge, who seemed to split the traditional “2nd year player” vote.

The only way LMA could get it would be to really jump up in stats much more signifcantly. I just can’t imagine that really happening though.

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Aug 6, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

agreed

The only scenario where I see LMA getting this award is if he improves his game to the point where he’s a clear all-star (as opposed to borderline) AND the Blazers as a team do surprisingly well, such as getting 60+ wins. In that scenario, people will look to attribute the Blazers success to something, and might latch on to LMA’s improvement as a significant storyline.

www.ripcitydispatch.com

by Blazer Guy on Aug 6, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Even then

if LMA became a clear-cut all-star, I don’t think he would be in the running. He’s pretty good right now (regardless of what the LMA haters think). The award was not meant to reward good players who become better or even great. But instead, players like Dante, who if he put up 18/8 this year would a clear front-runner for MIP. LMA would have to be in the MVP talks to warrent MIP consideration and that is just not realistic.

by odenator69 on Aug 6, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

MIP is usually associated with someone who wasn't expected to stand out

or that everyone assumed had a lower ceiling. When that player suddenly takes a big jump forward in production, they are worthy of being in the conversation. Players who everyone already thinks has a high ceiling, such as Westbrook or Curry, aren’t going to be in the running even if they have a great season because we already expect that, at this point. Many people think Oden is a bust, which is why a good year will get him mentioned.

by dbomb on Aug 7, 2010 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oden is the only Blazer with a realistic chance in my view

If he stays healthy, playing at least 65 games, and gets the minutes, (close to 30) the Blazers will be 1st or 2nd in the west, and he would be in the running if not leading it.

by usmcr3049 on Aug 6, 2010 2:59 PM PDT reply actions  

GO if healthy, is a lock...

for MIP.

Even an mediocre season from GO: 14 pts, 11 rebs, 2 asts and 2 blocks will get him the MIP if he can play in 65+ games.

His ceiling is 19/14/5 with 5 assists and 3 blocks, IMO so about 2/3 of his ceiling will get him the MIP.

Greg needs to develop some variety on offense to get into the 20+ ppg territory.

by Rip City Reign on Aug 6, 2010 4:03 PM PDT reply actions  

Oden will be the first player to win both MIP and MVP in the same season.

This will be on top of his Defensive Player of the Year honors and an NBA Championship.

You read it here first.

by Coastie07 on Aug 6, 2010 8:07 PM PDT reply actions  

This will be the first of 6 championships over the next 7 years where the Blazers play Miami in every single NBA Finals over that period, creating such a rivalry that people forget that Bird/Boston and Magic/LA even played each other in the 80’s. Miami will win 1 out of those 8 contests though due to a freak injury to Oden’s 3rd patella that no one knew he even had. We have to remain realistic here.

by Coastie07 on Aug 6, 2010 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

No one knew he even had?

Apparently you don’t pay much attention to internet gossip. There were pictures of his third patella all over the place last year.

by dwaynebillybob on Aug 6, 2010 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Actually the curse of lebron starts

And the miami team that is stacked and wins 60+ games in the regular season every year keeps mysteriously underperforming in the playoffs, and in the next 6 years they lose in the finals twice, ECF twice, second round once, and mysteriously enough a year where they lose in the first round.

"We Believe" - Rudy Fernandez

by TheGreatMon on Aug 7, 2010 5:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

nba likes to give this award to players that have been injured

though this hardly seems like it should be rationale for most improved.

that said, give oden 70 games played with 15 pts and 12 reb and 2 blocks per game; he would likely be in the top 2 for the award

by utahcoyote on Aug 7, 2010 5:27 PM PDT reply actions  

If blazers have an awesome record

he for sure might get it with those stats

WITH ODEN ON OUR SIDE

by bowdown on Aug 8, 2010 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Batum

Blazers cleared out space for him to be the clear cut starter. The talk about Wesley taking over for Batum (making Batum expendable in a trade) seems a stretch to me. Batum’s length gives him a big advantage over Matthews at the SF position over the course of the season and no one wants Roy starting at the SF spot again. Batum will start and get significant minutes and could be in a position to see his numbers take a significant spike which would raise eyebrows around the league.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Aug 8, 2010 11:58 PM PDT reply actions  

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