Dwyer: If Healthy, Greg Oden Is Maybe A Top Three Center In The NBA
In case you (like I) missed this on Friday, Kelly Dwyer from Yahoo! ranks Greg Oden the No. 11 center in the NBA but says...
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"So, I'd like to rank Oden higher. I really would. And while some might want to see him paired with Yao Ming around the same spot, it needs to be shouted that Greg Oden is not Yao Ming. He hasn't had the same repeated injuries in the same spot. He's injury-prone, yes, but only in the most literal sense of the phrase. If Oden stays healthy and can limit his fouls? He's top five. Maybe top three."
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-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
over 1 year ago
Ben Golliver
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yup. Odd to think that he's still only 22 (correct me if im wrong)
hes got a lot of years ahead of him.
by collectiveshane on Aug 30, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
As if we did not know this?
Greg Oden’s minutes should be handled like an ace pitcher. Let him play once or twice a week, against the best competition.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
Interesting idea...
I can definitely see that working, Camby and Pryzy holding down the fort against the weaker teams, save Oden to beast it against the L@kers, Heat etc.
It cheats the fans that show up games to see him and he doesn't play.
I see your point. But…. players have the best doctors, the best trainers, the best physical therapists, live in luxury, don’t play the entire 48 minutes, have lots of downtime. Least they could do is show up and play a little bit in each game so fans paying full prices for tickets get to see them perform. no?
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
That sucks
but I would rather have the fans cheated and greg healthy by playoff time.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
I was going to
but I got this really weird feeling and at the last moment I decided to leave the movie theater…
Geriatric Dunk Squad!
1/4/10 - Juwan Howard dunks on Chris Kaman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTkOqDgLb6s
3/7/10 - Andre Miller Tomahawk jams on the Denver Nuggets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-JVgm7F1QA
4/12/10 - Marcus Camby drops 30 and 13 on OKC to cement 50 wins. http://www.nba.com/blazers/media/camby_chant_041310.mp3
by Eat Politicians on Aug 30, 2010 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd also rather have Greg healthy
it would be even worse for me as a fan to lose Greg midseason again. I believe the Blazers should start Greg every game, but since we have Marcus and hopefully Joel, Greg doesn’t need to play a ton of minutes. If the freak injuries continue, they are going to happen regardless of how much Greg plays.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
This is absurd.
Let him play, see what he can do. Actually doing this would be a recipe for disaster.
Also, Net Ranger is right. I’m paying for my tickets, I want to see oden crush people.
I
I understand your point
but if Greg is ready to play, he needs to play every game. First for his sake – he needs as much game time experience as necessary to be ready to bring it once the playoffs start. Secondly for the team’s sake – we saw last year how shuffling players in and out of the lineup can negatively affect chemistry, so why would you willingly do the same thing?
Baseball is very different. For example. think of how LMA has to adjust his style of play when Oden is in the lineup vs. Camby. Now compare that with how Ichiro has to adjust his style of play when Hernandez is pitching vs. French.
Bah. Your right, I'm beating around the bush.
If Greg doesn’t perform in the playoffs for us, we have to let him go. That makes me super, super sad to say :(
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
That's the nice thing about baseball, for chemistry means nothing and fit is of almost no importance.
In baseball, the only two cases of poor fit I can see being of negative value this year is Chone Figgins in Seattle — as I think his is a rare case of a lack of lineup protection showing tangible results — and Ben Zobrist being less potent from a WAR perspective by playing more in right field than at second base due to the positional adjustment with regards to weighing replacement level standards.
Basketball, however, is different game, for on-court stylistic fit is a real thing. Unlike baseball, basketball relies more on overall team play than numerous invidual contests in each individual plate appearance.
Interestingly, this is also what makes baseball a more statistics-friendly game.
There are far more discrete actions with a low number of players participating, unlike basketball.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
That's a really bad analogy...
Don’t take it the wrong way – we all do it sometimes – but there’s absolutely nothing about Greg’s health issues that is common with pitchers. The reason pitchers pitch only every 4-5 days, is because of the risk of stress injuries. Greg’s injuries – AFAWK – have had nothing to do with stress. He never got to play enough minutes – even when healthy – for stress to become a factor. Whether he has some inherent issue with his body, that makes him injury-prone, or whether it’s just a case of terrible luck, it’s nothing that reduced minutes would help.
Some players, notably older ones, do have problems that can use minute management. But in those cases, the reasons are all related to extensive tissue damage over many years of tough, long-minute play (e.g. Duncan, Shaq), or to specific chronic injuries (e.g. Yao, Chris Webber). Neither applies to Oden, who is obviously very young, and has yet to hurt the same body part twice.
Now, I’m sure someone will say something like: “OK, but less minutes means less opportunity to get hurt, no?” To that, I have two answers:
1. Yes and no. Athletes need to play in order to be in game shape. And when they’re not in game shape, they’re a bit more likely to get hurt.
2. Even given the assumption – and beyond Storyteller’s excellent point below – this team is not at a stage where games are a given, even against mediocre opposition. And playing without one of your best players is just asking for trouble, not to mention cocky. Remember how Greg Popovich got criticized last year for resting Duncan towards the end of the season? And that’s a guy with a ton of mileage on his weary bones.
Your right, it was bad.
Guess the conclusion is this year: Sink or Swim.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
It would be cool if
we had to limit his minutes because of the risk of stress injury from dunking.
“Yeah, we only play him against the big teams, because when he’s throwing 30-40 80mph tomahawk jams, we worry about repeated stress injury.”
by superfly05 on Aug 30, 2010 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
thats just sad if that is what we have to resort to for brandon and oden
doesnt seem like typical conversations you have regarding “superstars.”
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Who said anything about superstar regarding Oden
Oh there pops up the ol “when healthy” clause.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
i've heard of HALL OF FAME in the same sentence as oden in his first years here.
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
So did I
The last few years though, I have heard the words" if healthy" far too many times.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
using that qualifier means
he is injury prone until proven healthy
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
You got it backwards...
In the limited time he has played he gets killed against the better centers and teams most of the time. He does much better vs the weaker teams, if you are going to rest him and baby him even more best to do it against the better teams.
Here's how to find Greg Oden articles on the internet...
Google ‘IF’.
I feel so blessed that this is the last year the Franchise and we as a fan base are held ‘hostages’ by the mysteries of Greg ‘IF’ Oden.
Are we selfish and impatient for coming to conclusions about Greg after four seasons, given his circumstances? Not sure. But I’m ready to either embrace him as a Blazer or wash my hands of him by game 60.
Love him. Wish him the best. Wish us the best.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
While this may make psychological sense for you as a fan.....
I’m ready to either embrace him as a Blazer or wash my hands of him by game 60.
……It doesn’t make any sense, at all, for the team to think of him in these terms.
GO isn’t some “all in” bet that the team is making and then we either win or go home, Greg is a person and a player asset. If he makes it through this season, he won’t suddenly be indestructible. Conversely, if he gets injured yet again, it doesn’t necessarily mean we should walk away.
GO, if healthy, is going to be a top 3 center in the league. I don’t think there is much doubt. Last year he ranked second in the league in TS%, 1st in Blocks per 36, and 1st in RBD%. Raw and rusty, he was already a dominating force.
We have to live with uncertainty as fans, as does the team, as does GO. Everybody has their fingers crossed. I think we all need to proceed with cautious optimism. There is no reason to believe he is going to be injured or ineffective, but the team needs to take every reasonable precaution. The team needs to bring him on slowly. They need to worry about nutrition, skeletal alignment, and other preventative measures and they need to keep extra depth at center.
I would say he is not only the biggest question mark for the team, he may be the biggest question mark in the league.
by upper left corner on Aug 30, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
We have to live with uncertainty regarding GO?
He could care a lot more about basketball then he does, like Durant & be playing all the time – He would be in better shape no doubt. Its making me sad to think but the thought continuously pops in my head, he used this game as a vehicle to provide for a family. Nothing wrong with that, however as a fanbase it hurts us. Hell, as people it hurts us, wondering what if I won the Gene Lottery what would someone who truly loves this game would have done.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
Wow, your knowledge Greg Oden's thoughts & motivations is very impressive! I hadn't realized that Spock's Vulcan mind-meld technique is now being employed by humans!
Also, before reading your comment, I had no idea that it was possible to play basketball all the time (ala Kevin Durant) while rehabbing from devastating knee injuries. Live & learn…
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
You're right
Clearly Spock’s Vulcan father should have euthanized him at birth to prevent his imparting Vulcan secrets to the human race.
In the hands of humans—ruled by emotion as they are—techniques like the mind meld could be put to fiendish purposes. Such as reading the contents of Greg Oden’s heart & mind and publishing those findings @ Blazersedge.com.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
I love Greg
But this franchise relying & expecting him to be the Saviour is foolish if the front office thinks that way. I believe I read Greg said he likes to chill & watch TV in his spare time – pre draft. KD said wants to play basketball. I want Greg to be that guy. I want him to prove me wrong.
This organization should go forward as if to not expect anything upon Greg. For then anything we get will be gravy.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
Yes, Durant never chills & watches t.v.
He plays basketball 24/7. He doesn’t eat or sleep even. That would take away vital minutes from his obsessive practice regimen.
Instead, KD has an intraveneous hook-up that provides needed nutrition plus Red Bull for wakefulness.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
"this franchise relying & expecting him to be the Saviour is foolish"
Come on now. The Blazers drafted Greg for that very reason. I’m don’t think he will ever be a Shaq or Hakeem, but he definitely has the potential to be near that level.
We all know why they picked Oden instead of Durant. To win championships.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
I feel so blessed that this is the last year the Franchise and we as a fan base are held ‘hostages’ by the mysteries of Greg ‘IF’ Oden.
and I’ll be blessed if Greg stays healthy so I won’t have to read anymore “if he gets hurt one more time Portland should cut bait with Oden” responses on BE.
That is backwards thinking on several levels. If he’s seriously hurt again there’s no gain in immediately dealing him away. Let the RFA market dictate his next extension then lock him up on an affordable contract and then rehab him again. Once he’s healthy then maybe look for deals, or not. But don’t treat him like a racehorse with a broken leg and send him to the proverbial NBA glue factory
Honestly I don’t see why fans take Oden’s misfortune so personally. Greg’s a potential asset, an extremely good one. It pays to be patient and not be so quick to throw in the towel on this kind of difference-making big men, as Portland learned from 1974-1977 re: Bill Walton
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 30, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
I agree wholeheartedly with this take.
by AK1984 on Aug 31, 2010 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Me too. Recs for you both.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Our lowest rated player was Miller at 15. BRoy at 3, Oden 11 but should/could be 3, LMA is 11 but he handled
many above him, should/could be higher, Batum was ranked 13 but was/is much better than many ranked above, The great thing about this is our bench is better than alot of starters on other teams.
Camby was 15
and I felt he was underrated.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Yeah
Camby > Oden in my opinion. Camby should have been around 7 or 8
really?
he’s asking who’s going to have the best season next year. Camby’s good, but with his history of niggles and at his age, 15 was a reasonable assessment.
Dywer did a lot of hedging for injuries
I still felt it was too much.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Sounds like Mr. Dwyer actually watched GO play last season
What a concept!
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
And missed Joel, who is not on the list anywhere ;-)
"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban
which means he doesn't think Joel will play
He didn’t say it for Joel, but in past years players he left off the list (Yao) were left off because he thought their injury would prevent them from playing.
i don't want to talk about Oden until he's back on the court
the recent interviews and comments made by him and members of the Blazers’ organization make it extremely difficult to remain positive about Oden .
I try to support him, but damn. I just need to see him on the court playing ball .
Sophia
The Princess of Blazersedge
Twitter.com/sophiabiabia Follow Me!!!
" It just takes an iron fist to keep the riff raff under control and her princess hand is mad strong" - Idoltime
by BlazerFan1 on Aug 30, 2010 12:09 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Patience, patience
These dog days, in which information is scarce & unreliable, will pass, and we’ll see with our own eyes that GO is just fine. Once again will we be treated to the spectacle of Greg Oden reducing opposing centers to tears. In the meanwhile, there’s YouTube…
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
I’m more concerned about him getting healthy and playing pain free and that’s a lot more important than some stupid deadline.
People need to look at this in the long term and there’s no reason to rush anything, he’s 22 years old and has plenty of years ahead of him. Get him healthy is the only goal.
"We are building a fighting force of extraordinary magnitude. We forge our tradition in the spirit of our ancestors. You have our gratitude." - Rich Cho
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Aug 30, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed, er, Sexual Tyrannosaurus
(Does your mom know that’s your BE handle?)
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
I could never figure out what was sexy about short arms...
Must be a Bayless fan…
Well, nature has a way of compensating
When one is deficient or undersized in one area…
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
'08, when I adopted that handle, was awhile ago!
At the time, I was eager for the ‘09-’10 season to arrive, at which point I believed the Blazers’ championship window would at least theoretically begin to open. Ha!!
Of course, being an older fan, I did always hedge, “providing the injury bug stays away.”
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
yes indeed
well said. www.nbawrap.com
"even dude's with no arms say that nbawrap.com is the best, hands down."
by Reggie Walker on Aug 30, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
sigh.
If Oden stays healthy and can limit his fouls? He’s top five. Maybe top three.
Yeah. And if Shaq hit his FT at 90% clip, he’d give Wilt’s point records a run for his money.
If the Blazers held on in Game 7, Shaq & Kobe would have imploded and we would be the ones with a dynasty.
If we had taken Durant instead of Oden, Oden may have stayed healthy.
I can go all day.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
His fouls WILL go down though.
I think that’s a given effect of the improved Blazer perimeter D.
Rich Rolled
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Aug 30, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Your analogies are deeply flawed
There is little reason to assume that GO will necessarily be injured.
by upper left corner on Aug 30, 2010 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
what?
That doesn’t make sense.
If there’s little reason to believe his injuries are not systematic, then they are happenstance. In which case little reason to believe Oden in a completely different circumstance with different events etc would suffer the freak injury he did were he not playing the rockets that night last year.
And my point was simply I’m tired of all the ifs. Lets just watch the Blazers play and enjoy it. Lets stop bloating Oden to be the next big center or top 3 or whatever. Lets just see what happens and THEN we can gloat.
I guess what I’m trying to say is: We get it. Oden has tons of potential. But until we see him play a significant stretch without injury or foul trouble or whatever, lets just give it a rest.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
by nima on Aug 30, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cautious optimism....
I think this is the reasonable position to take.
There is no apparent connection between his different injuries. There is no apparent permanent impairment. as a result of his injuries. This is the optimistic part.
Caution is advised. He should be brought along slowly. Preventive steps should be taken. The team should maintain extra depth. This is the caution part.
by upper left corner on Aug 31, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
cautious optimism isn't forecasting him as top 3 C in the league next year. that's optimism, homerism or both.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
I emphatically disagree.
Just look it up:
This link takes you to Basketball Reference’s “Player Season Finder”. I sorted for all the first and second year centers in the history of the league who have posted a season PER above 20 (minimum of 100 minutes of PT). Just look at where Greg Oden falls on that list:
#1 in Block%
#2 in Total Rebound%
#3 in TS%
Basically, Greg Oden posted better numbers last year than the best of the best young centers in the history of the league. Suggesting he is going to be a top 3 in the league if he stays healthy isn’t being a “homer,” it is opening your eyes to the dominance in front of us. Greg Oden is as good as advertised. He is everything we hoped for when KP selected him. All he needs to do is stay on the floor.
by upper left corner on Sep 1, 2010 6:48 AM PDT up reply actions
man give it up on the PER argument for Oden.
Everyone always says that. ANYONE can have a great PER in limited minutes. It is an EFFICIENCY rating. Oden doesn’t play extended minutes. If he put up those PER numbers while playing extended minutes like Dwight or…well any other starting center in the NBA, then you would have an argument.
Until then, Oden is an extremely promising player who has thus far been disappointing.
Make no mistake, the disappointment has nothing to do with his talents. Oden is extremely talented and showed flashes of brilliance last year that had my heart racing, but he has not consistently proven he can stay on the floor. Heck, he hasn’t even consistently proven he can stay in uniform.
And before you lambast people for making assumptions based on his past health, you should keep in mind all these injuries (ok, MOST) have long term consequences. You heal and recover mostly but not completely. Nothing goes back 100% in medicine-unless you’re a kid and Oden is not a kid.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
You seem to be missing the point
Writing a post criticizing PER is both wrong about per minute stats and misses the fact that the stats I just posted are are not just PER stats.
Basically, I only used PER as a means of screening for the top young centers in the history of the league. If you read down that list you will see that almost all of those guys went on to have All-Star careers and several are in the HOF.
Then I compared these top young centers using three different stats:
TS%, which is the best measure of overall scoring efficiency;
Block , which is the best measure of the number of blocks per possessions;
and RBD which is the percentage of all rebounds the player gets while on the floor. GO is at or near the top of the list in all three areas.
You seem to be arguing that this is some sort of statistical fluke, that anybody can “have a great PER.” These are real stats that are a real measure of production and dominance on the floor. They clearly suggest that, IF HEALTHY, GO is quite likely to be a top center not just in the current NBA, but in the history of the game.
You accused me of being a “homer.” I suggest that you be careful throwing around that term. I think I took a look at the data and made a realistic statement.
Regarding GO’s injuries, you need to look at the specific types of injuries he has suffered: a broken bone in his wrist from a fall; a chip in his knee cap from banging it on a metal brace; an injury to his knee that required MF to regenerate the cartilage; and, a broken knee cap. Three of those injuries occurred to Oden’s bones. Bones heal. The fourth required MF, which has a very long recovery time, but which generally has a near total recovery for young players.
Cautious optimism is the right stance. Predicting GO as a top center is realistic. Hold the accusations of homerism.
by upper left corner on Sep 2, 2010 6:50 AM PDT up reply actions
what?
your stats are TS%, Blocks per possession and percentage of rebounds. These are not per minute stats but they are ADJUSTED stats. They are ratios. Dudley could unretire play 30 seconds and grab 2 quick boards and have the most out of this world statistics. The point is these stats are irrelevant if you can’t stay on the floor for long periods. I could show you other stats that are full of HOF players, how about total career points or total career rebounds?
The stats you’re using are best use to compare players who play similar minutes so you can adjust for a few confounding factors (tempo and MINOR differences in PT). They are not at all useful in comparing someone who plays 20mpg to people who play 40mpg.
You can quote stats until you’re blue in the face, but you’re doing it wrong. You’re extrapolating that he will remain a top 3 center off of your statistics. Your statistics likely have high errors (he frankly hasn’t played very games thus far) and are making a faulty assumption that if oden can rebound shoot and block at this rate for 20 mins, he could keep it up for 40 mins. If that were the case, Usain Bolt would be the fastest marathon runner based on his olympic sprint records.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Look, we haven't conversed much in the past....
……but, I looked up your profile, read some of your comments, and it is pretty clear that you are a reasonable guy. I don’t want to get into some big chest bumping thing with you over a few meaningless comments.
I thought my comment about GO looking like he will become a top 3 center was pretty reasonable given the available data. You disagree, and pointed out that the data is pretty limited.
You have a point, GO only played about 24 minutes per game for 21 games before his knee injury. That is a pretty small sample. I would however point out that it has been my observation that stats like Blk% and Rbd% scale up more accurately than stats like scoring, which is more affected by the defensive game planning of opponents.
I still think that it makes sense to try to place Oden’s play in a historical context and compare his stats with other top young centers over the past few decades. I still think that the numbers suggest that he is going to be very, very good, and I will be surprised if my projection of top 3 doesn’t come true if GO stays healthy.
If you still disagree, let’s try to disagree in an agreeable manner. I would appreciate it if you didn’t call me a “homer” and didn’t lecture me about stats when I believe I have a pretty good understanding of the basics about how to compare players. In turn, I will respect your right to be less optimistic and more reluctant to draw conclusions based on limited play.
by upper left corner on Sep 2, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
wow
Regarding GO’s injuries, you need to look at the specific types of injuries he has suffered: a broken bone in his wrist from a fall; a chip in his knee cap from banging it on a metal brace; an injury to his knee that required MF to regenerate the cartilage; and, a broken knee cap. Three of those injuries occurred to Oden’s bones. Bones heal. The fourth required MF, which has a very long recovery time, but which generally has a near total recovery for young players.
And please don’t try to teach me about how bones work. I’m in medicine. I think I know better than most on here. Injuries to joints like knees and ankles predispose to further injuries of those joints. Even if I gave in and said he absolutely without a doubt did not get injured because he was injury prone, he now is more PRONE to reinjury of those bum knees he has.
Thanks. Now I sound like a pessimist! :)
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
seriously?
how about the fact that he has never played a full season in his entire life???? we need to offer him for something, there are still teams who would give up great players for him
by goblazers503 on Aug 30, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
ummmm
There is little reason to assume that GO will necessarily be injured.
I wish I could agree with this.
"Conan, what is best in life?"
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women."
by dario argento on Aug 30, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
there is little reason to assume that GO will be healthy
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You shouldn't be assuming anything
and there’s nothing to reasonably conclude that he will or won’t be healthy this season. There’s zero information. The front office hasn’t said anything but they don’t plan on rushing him back. That’s it.
"We are building a fighting force of extraordinary magnitude. We forge our tradition in the spirit of our ancestors. You have our gratitude." - Rich Cho
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Aug 30, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
if i were to make a bet
on greg playing 95% of his games…i’ll bet that he wont.
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Great and that means what exactly?
I could give a crap less if he misses games in the beginning of the season
"We are building a fighting force of extraordinary magnitude. We forge our tradition in the spirit of our ancestors. You have our gratitude." - Rich Cho
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Aug 30, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
There is a follow up post with Cho..and one of the comments to that post
gives a very detailed and probably accurate description of the healing process for the patella. If you read it you will feel better!! I suggested that the person who wrote the comment make it a post!!!
The Cho follow up post was fairly recent just scroll down on the home page.
The comment that is reassuring is recommended/green.
also
anytime someone says “if healthy” they are also assuming that greg won’t be healthy.
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Again, you really shouldn't be assuming anything
"We are building a fighting force of extraordinary magnitude. We forge our tradition in the spirit of our ancestors. You have our gratitude." - Rich Cho
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Aug 30, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
look if we arent going to assume anything...then that makes sites like this
talk radio, analysts, and beat reporters all irrelevant. the best we can do is gather information from things either going on presently or things that have happened in the past to predict what may come in the future. preseason polls in any sport are usually pretty useless, but at the same time its useful to determine how you stack up against those top tier teams…especially as motivational tools. judging greg based on off season workouts, and prior history is completely fair.
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Physiologically speaking, there is
When you look at Walton or Yao, you already know these guys have feet of clay. Bill had high arches that were a ticking time bomb, and Ming has had ongoing foot problems as well
Bowie’s tibias were his downfall, this was already known before he was drafted. Still, in his late-20s early-30s Sam was able to play regular NBA minutes
Greg has one leg shorter than the other. This can affect several areas of his anatomy but there are orthotics and balance exercises that can be done to overcome this problem. Certainly, he’s not the first NBA big man to be imbalanced in this area. Now, it can be argued that the Blazer trainers “should have known” that Greg would suffer a patella fracture and (with this knowledge) prepared his workout regimine differently last summer, but it’s difficult to predict how strengthening one leg re: m/f recovery would affect the other knee. The good news is that the training staff (and Greg) have come to the conclusion that “lighter is better” and he’s taken the steps to drop the weight and look into whole body health solutions.
Does this guarantee Oden will never be injured again playing NBA ball? Of course not, but he doesn’t have the built-in structural weakesses that Bill, Yao and Sam have had to deal with, either
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Huh?
Does the ‘larue’ part of your sig mean you get two opinions in 1 post?
he doesn’t have the built-in structural weakesses that Bill, Yao and Sam have had to deal with, either
and
Greg has one leg shorter than the other
I’m no doctor, but I’d say one leg shorter than the other is a built-in structural weakness…
(unless you were talking about legs 2 and 3, but even then, that’s hardly a weakness)
According to my physical therapist, legs of uneven length is an exceedingly common trait
I have it myself.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
[Insert the requisite third leg joke here]
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
apples and oranges
when a basketball player has high arches, like Walton has, there’s not much that can be done to prevent foot injuries. Orthotics will only help him for so long, each time he lands the foot’s bones are placed under a great deal of pressure, and that caught up to Bill as a pro when there were more games and less time off
Yao, ditto
Bowie had thin/brittle tibias. They had to be held together with screws, which Sam carries around with him to this day
Oden’s difference in leg-length isn’t even in the same ballpark as these issues, the only thing in common is that Greg has been injured (to different areas of his body) and has missed NBA games arly in his career. There’s no “weak” area of GO’s body that can be pointed at (like with the others) where someone can say “well, it’s just a matter of time before that breaks down, again”
Oden could very well be reinjured in a completely different area, but there’s no evidence that he is more likely to do so, when compared to any other NBA player of his size or age. The “he’s been hurt, so he’s going to get hurt” take is just as dubious as a baseball player wearing the same pair of socks in hopes of keeping a hitting streak alive. (If it makes you feel more confident to keep telling yourself that something random is going to repeat itself, then I’m not likely to convince you otherwise)
FYI “two, for LaRue” was one of Bill Schonley’s calls when the Blazer’s first round draft choice in 1972 scored one of his rare field goals
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
lol, I knew that.
It’s nice when being old pays off. I remember a crayon masterpiece I made of Larue Martin from a coloring book.
I remember the white caddy
with the “LARUE” vanity plate
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Ilgauskus is in most of the pictures
I find it humorous the Big-Z is the defender in the majority of pictures playing D on the center on that page. I guess Big Z has a way of making opposing centers offense shine.
It was the same thing with LeBron and the small forwards.
Whatever photography is being sourced, it must have come from Cavs games.
OJ Mayo was the SG
and Troy Murphy was the PF
SPOILER ALERT
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
A healthy Oden is better than Howard
Probably better than Yao. What confuses me is who else can be in the conversation – Lopez? Bogut?
I suppose I could read the list myself – but there aren’t many compelling dcenters that don’t come with their own caveats….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 30, 2010 1:26 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
easy to overrate D.Howard and underrate Oden
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 30, 2010 6:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
With a fractured patella, I'd rank him at #30.
Unless Bynum has a torn MCL, in which case I’d put Greg at #29. This and similar calculations, in which multiple players are injured, are complex, and so for the rest of my rankings, I’m assuming all other centers are 100% healthy.
With a nagging hamstring injury: #21.
With a dislocated ring finger: #6
With a bad cold: #1
With the flu: #1 (replacing the ailing Miller at point guard, like a reverse MagicJohnson)
Greg is one of those guys who, though sick as a dog, manages to have a great game.
#52
Does he even watch the Blazers.....
" A fractured left patella tendon, hurt as he landed awkwardly after contesting a shot against Houston."
Uhh, he hurt it jumping up, not landing on it……
Didn't actually read the piece
That is indeed lame. Maybe Dwyer DIDN’T actually watch the Blazers—contrary to what I suggested above. Ah, how naive of me to believe that a member of the national media would deign to watch a NW team. Anti-NW media bias lives.
Then again, I didn’t bother to read the piece, so maybe there’s NW anti-MEDIA bias. :-)
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
if you read Dwyer's Behind the Box Score posts during the season
He watches just about every game, except when multiple are on at the same time. So he probably saw GO play, but didn’t see the injury happen.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
fractured left patella, not patella tendon and it was his quad muscles that caused the break.
The bone healed nicely months ago. If it didn’t he wouldn’t have started rehab back in March. The major issue with Greg’s rehab is to strengthen all of the stabilizing muscles around his knee cap and address the muscle imbalance in his left leg. Once he’s got his muscles sorted out in his left leg and then make sure that he’s just as strong on both legs. If he doesn’t, this could happen again.
"We are building a fighting force of extraordinary magnitude. We forge our tradition in the spirit of our ancestors. You have our gratitude." - Rich Cho
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Aug 30, 2010 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope we dont end up giving him a huge extension only to see him go down
again mid season
WITH ODEN ON OUR SIDE
Right
If Greg ends up unable to play anymore, perhaps barely able to walk for the rest of his life, I’d rather he end up old and penniless.
#52
well he made close to 24 million in 4 years at portland
if he has used it wisely he is pretty much set
WITH ODEN ON OUR SIDE
LOL. I'm pretty sure Greg will fine financially.
"Conan, what is best in life?"
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women."
by dario argento on Aug 30, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Which is why you won't see him get a 'huge' extension
As the 10/31 deadline approaches, if Oden is able to actually play, I’d expect the Blazers to offer a lowball extension offer – 4 years for $28-30 million or so. I’d be very surprised if they offered any more than that. I’d also be very surprised if Oden’s camp accepted such an offer.
At this point, it makes sense for the Blazers to try to extend him at below ‘market value’. It makes no sense for them to extend him at ‘market value’.
I'll be surprised if he is extended this summer. I just don't see how the two sides can reach an agreement.
"Conan, what is best in life?"
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women."
by dario argento on Aug 30, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
it certainly appears to be in Portland's best interests to wait
Oden’s camp may feel a greater sense of urgency, heading into a (very likely) work stoppage without a guaranteed contract
the doomsday scenario for the Blazers is if they don’t extend Greg, he goes into the current CBA as a RFA and comes out the other end (of the new CBA) as a UFA
Don’t think it could happen? I’ve learned the hard way to never underestimate David "Montgomery Burns’ Stern
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
right now, they're waiting until late October
before they make a decision one way or the other. I don’t expect Cho or anyone at Blazer’s HQ to comment re: Greg’s extension until the deadline nears
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If GO isn't offered the biggest incentive-laden contract in the history of professional sports..
then Cho isn’t doing his job…
I mean, I think it was ULC who had it right: there is no more UNpredictable player in the NBA. He’s either on the DL or dominating. There is no middle ground.
And even if he has a healthy year, you have to offer him huge incentives…
I don’t know how the salary cap works – do they count incentives in the cap? Course it could all change this summer…
But I’d be giving Greg a couple mil guaranteed, then progressive incentives up to and including Paul Allen’s yacht if he turns into an ironman and wins us a bunch of titles….
From memory...
The salary cap differentiates between ‘likely’ (ie happened the season before, if memory serves) and ‘unlikely’ incentives. 25% is the max amount of a contract that can be incentivized.
Anyway I agree. Incentives up the wazoo.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
NBAWRAP.COM top 3 centers
touched on this a few weeks ago…
http://nbawrap.blogspot.com/2010/08/andrew-bogut-is-really-underrated.html
1. D-Howard
2. Andrew Bogut
3. Amare
"even dude's with no arms say that nbawrap.com is the best, hands down."
Amare Stoudemire is a center?
Sure he’s been forced to play the position at times. But so has LMA.
As for Bogut, come on: a healthy GO would make him look silly. Lopez & Bynum are much better based on what I’ve seen.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
i'll take bogut over bynum
not so sure if i like him more than lopez tho.
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, its the fat that makes you look fat!" ~Al Bundy
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
by Philthyanimal on Aug 30, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lopez is a nice player
I felt bad for him, losing all those games with New Jersey. But that franchise may be on the rise.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
Imagine if they get Melo
A core of Harris, Melo, and Lopez is a contender for home court in the East at least.
Moot point though since Melo is going to the Knicks.
I bet NJ does get Melo. It would be funnier though if Melo went to the Clippers!!!
The Woj article said that Denver was interested in what the Nets and Clippers have to trade.
You underrate Bogut then.
The dud is a stud.
It kinda rolls off the tongue, doesn't it?
I think you’ve got the makings of a hit song with that title…
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
Bogut > Oden
And it’s not even close, that pretty much made be de-value your basketball opinion.
As for Amare not being a center, NOW you might be right, he is kind of a 4, since they have Ronnie Turiaf. He will probably still be on the all-star ballot as a 5 though.
Amare was indeed a center last year (he’s CERTAINLY more of a center than Channing Frye). But if you still don’t want to believe it don’t take my word for it, take the NBA’s. Last year Amare was 2nd team all-nba CENTER.
"even dude's with no arms say that nbawrap.com is the best, hands down."
by Reggie Walker on Aug 31, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
spelling mistake
me de-value*
"even dude's with no arms say that nbawrap.com is the best, hands down."
by Reggie Walker on Aug 31, 2010 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
analysis mistake
Amare Stoudemire is a center.
Forget the all-star ballot. Here’s a test: picture Amare matched up against Shaquille O’Neal in his prime. Would he hold his own or be reduced to a quivering, cowering lump of flesh?
Because there is a shortage of true centers in the NBA at the present time, some power forwards (including Stoudemire) are being forced to play out of position at the five. And those guys can get by as long as they’re not matched against a real center. When that occurs, they’re in a world of trouble.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
Shaq in his prime
Nobody was messing with Shaq in his prime, nobody. Not anyone in the history of the league actually.
But your right there is an extreme shortage of true centers in the NBA (Al Jefferson isn’t one either). Amare is kind of lumped into the category by default.
if you liked what I had to say, check me out at www.nbawrap.com
"even dude's with no arms say that nbawrap.com is the best, hands down."
by Reggie Walker on Aug 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree that Oden is a to 3 center if healthy.
But I don’t agree with this guys rankings. I guess everyone has an opinion but I just have a hard time believing Andrew Bogut is the 2nd best center in the NBA. That and Nene above big Al Jefferson?!?! Really?!?!
Big Al is a poor defender who has problems covering either the 4 or 5 position
Though on the Jazz he might score a lot aided by Sloan’s good offensive schemes and D-Will and rebound enough to make him an All-Star which he never or only very rarely would have been on the Wolves.
"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban
Actually, during those rare periods when Nene is healthy, he's a load
The guy can play. In fact, arguably he’s outplayed GO during their matchups.
Yes, that’s right, sports fans: Greg Oden isn’t the only injury-prone center out there. If a center is doing his job—protecting the rim—he’s going to rack up injuries.
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
Did anyone else notice
that almost every photo on that list came from a Clevand game?
Dwyer chose one defender for each position.
Big Z happened to be the Center of choice.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
How to get Greg Oden some ink
other than rehabilitation news?——Well, you could do a top 10 centers in the league and add a # 11 to get Greg on the card. This is typical sports hype that simply doesn’t say much. The hype surrounding the anticipation of his return to the floor is probably more national news than local and puts added pressure on Greg to be the guy everyone thought he was. So how does he become that guy? Not by typing in a few words of projected potential, but by getting Greg on the floor and gaining back some of those precious minutes he has lost so far.
Sure you can assume how good he could be and even use statistics to support this claim. But what we are talking about here is intangibles. From how well he can play a whole season, what can he do if double teamed as a scoring threat, what he could learn from more playing time, what has he lost (career wise) from not having been on the court, and even how to prevent further injuries? How can you sum up any of these parts?
There is no reason to rank a center based on potential and less than a handful of statistics. (you need reasonable sampling sizes to even consider significance to any statistical info.) No one can measure productivity on the short term and imply that the bottom line will be met when only 5 % of the returns are in.
There is a painful reality here in that, Oden’s “bad luck” may continue. Every minute he doesn’t play is another nail in his NBA coffin.
He is young and can heel, but he is also a big man that has big body parts to move around. It’s an athletic sport with physical demands, that also require agility, coordination, and quick lateral movements. No one likes the injury prone tag, but at least you can say for sure, he has not proven very durable.
Everyone wants this kid to succeed and become an NBA star. But lets not forget, he is a kid, hasn’t grown up yet, and is jumping into a man’s world full of high expectations. He simply may not be up to it (both physically and physiologically) as he is literally carrying the weight of this franchises future on his (seemingly) fragile body and in his youthful mind.
When the parts are considered healed, it’s time for Greg to get on the floor and play hard. That is the proof that he is or will become a great NBA center. He needs the minutes, just like Storyteller said above and he needs to get the monkey off his back rather quickly.
It's all about defense......
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