Blazers vs. Thunder: The OTHER Division Team
Friday's divisional discussion centered around the two traditional rivals of the Portland Trail Blazers, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz. In some ways they are yesterday's news. The glaring omission in that discussion was the new, hot rival on the block: the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are media darlings just like the Blazers were a couple of years ago. The Thunder have a star-studded core like the Blazers field. The Thunder are young enough to challenge for years to come just as the Blazers are. It's a great storyline...a matchup made in heaven.
So let's cut to the chase. How do the Blazers and Thunder match up this year? In years to come? Will this be THE rivalry that defines the West in this decade? Who will come out on top? Why? What has to happen to create that outcome? Toss around all your Portland-OKC stuff today.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
P.S. Don't forget to send in Mailbag/Podcast questions to blazersub@yahoo.com before Wednesday!
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I think it'll be a lot like Lakers-Suns
They were/are in the same division and have had a heated rivalry that’ll likely continue. It’s a shame they’re not the Sonics anymore, doesn’t have the same ring to it.
That said, I think they’ve got a pretty loaded player in Durant but we have the better overall team and depth to match. The only thing stopping us is health, and the only thing stopping them is plugging in the right pieces to put around Durant, particularly in the paint.
by vitaminx on Aug 29, 2010 11:19 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It will be almost exactly like the Suns vs L@kers
The Blazers’ front line of Oden/Przybilla/Camy/LMA will dominate the smaller and less skilled OKC front line for the foreseeable future.
I said “almost exactly” because the Blazers are good and the L@kers are known to be evil.
In KP I trusted!
ODEN SMASH!!!!
We’re going to either lose 1 game in OKC or one in each city, going 3-1 or 2-2… I think this is an important see-saw matter, because if we take 3 of 4, we’ll be playing well and crushing our opponents, but if we tie it’s proof that maybe we’re not as ready to advance as we thought…
Blazers win!
I Refuse
I cannot in good conscience let a Thunder rivalry be THE rivalry defining the west. They’re not the Sonics anymore, who cares about friggin Oklahoma? They should make for some entertaining and challenging matchups, but it can’t and shouldn’t be anywhere near what the I-5 rivalry was. I feel far more passionate about the L*kers, Jazz, or even San Antonio than OKC.
I sure hope this is the year we everyone else can start putting to rest the Oden v. Durant draft argument. Oden was the right choice, and if he comes through this year he’ll leave no doubt.
All day baby, all day!
Wonder how being in OKC will affect the franchise going forward. OKC is probably a wonderful
city to live in but how many people know this and how many NBA stars will want to live there?
Though it is close to Texas..
Anyway, I don’t see how the location of the team matters as far as rivalry goes. Right now they have a pretty good team. They also have a coach who seems to be very good.
OKC is going to be good this year. I’m pretty sure they will be the Blazers main competition for the division title.
Let's be clear
and no need to beat around the bush: OKC is not a wonderful city to live in. It may suit the purposes of a gym rat like KD and the NBA bubble can presumably make any place endurable for most players. But the question is perfectly legitimate.
To be sure, there are alternative strategies for accumulating talent. Presti’s genius is employing a “Band of Brothers” strategy, accumulating a generation of players who will mature together. Jobs are scarce in the NBA and for most players, beggars can’t be choosers. But free agents with leverage looking for visibility and South Beach type comfort? Nope.
As far as a division rival goes, OKC may be the one
Utah and Denver have personnel issues that are sinking them.
Denver is losing Carmello and Billups is aging. Besides those two, they are stocked with complementary players.
Utah lost their starting PF and two guard in the off-season. The are also overpaying for several players and lack the flexibility to go get additional talent.
OKC and Portland look like the cream of the division in the coming years. Portland’s bigs should dominate them, while Batum and Matthews contain KD.
In KP I trusted!
OKC is not wonderful
do you know why Texas doesn’t fall in to the ocean?
because Oklahoma sucks.
good one!! I just said that about OKC because I've never been there and don't want to just assume.
I’m sure night life isn’t great. But it is fairly centrally located and NBA players travel during the season quite a bit. So it’s not like they are stuck in OKC all season. And then they can leave in the off season.
I think the weather there is probably not horrible either and they probably have good steaks there!
I love Oden but...
The right choice? At the time, maybe, but with hindsight? Please. Even if Oden is healthy for the rest of his career (which, I think he can be) and even if he performs at the PER level he did last year (23.14, not too shabby), he’s still not going to be Durant. If healthy I definitely don’t think Oden was Bowie, but Durant dominated last year, and he’s not even 21 yet. If you were in the Jordan draft, Olajuwon wasn’t a bad pick, people don’t blame the rockets for the pick, but in all honesty if you could have Olajuwon or Jordan you go with Jordan (in hindsight!)
And Oden isn’t Olajuwon, (Durant isn’t Jordan either, but he’s much closer, and younger still than Jordan was when drafted)
by giantAppleCore on Aug 30, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Answering the Oden v. Durant question
Should be based on who makes the team better. Durant might have already proven to be a better player than Oden, but the real question is whether or not Durant would make the Blazers better than they would be with Oden. We haven’t seen enough of Oden’s play and development to know who was the right choice. Right now most people would probably go back and pick Durant, including me. Durant is healthy and he has MVP potential, and there is some early evidence that he’s getting Jordan-esque special treatment by officials. However, it’s too early to count out Oden’s potential impact. If he stays health for the next 2 years, I think we will have an answer, but that’s a big “IF”. Despite the injuries, I think Oden has the same potential he came into the league with, and he could still become dominant force the Blazers need to win a championship. Right now, I’d stay making the “right choice” in “Oden v. Durant” is still a coin flip.
you have to include Roy in this equation
this is like the “what if the Blazers had drafted Jordan back in ’84?” debate, all over again
While it could be said that Clyde and Michael could have played alongside each other, it’s pretty clear these two star SGs would have had personality issues. So too, would Brandon and Kevin. They’re both ball-dominant, and their playing styles would be imcompatible
I’ve long suggested that if Nate had got his hands on Durant back in 2007, then Kevin would have been utilized as Rashard Lewis was up in Seattle. In other words, Durant would not be the same scoring leader he is today if he had played for the Blazers—unless the organization had jettisoned Roy for a big man—but what are the odds of that with Nate and KP in charge?
So if we’re going to play the “what if” game lets keep all of the known pieces on the game board. Just like in 1984, with Ramsay and Inman, they were building a roster with a high-post passing center (Bowie was going to be the next Walton) in mind. They also were going to have to deal with Magic and Kareem to reach the finals, so Sam made sense to them at the time, once Hakeem was out of reach. Hindsight is 20/20, but all of the NBA experts agreed that “no one knew” at the time that MJ was going to be as dominant as he later became, back in June 1984. Just like today, know one knows if Durant will ever win a championship, he could be the next Tracy McGrady.
If this proves to be the case, Then I’ll keep Oden. And Roy. And Batum. And take my chances
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Let's see which player ends up with the most rings
In KP I trusted!
by LaoTzu on Aug 30, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
"was the right choice"
this is past tense. Not sure what you are reacting to…
The right choice? At the time, maybe
the same way you are refering to Oklahoma is teh same way other big market fans refer to us
WITH ODEN ON OUR SIDE
Has anyone ever claimed that Portland is an attractive free agent destination?
My impression is “no”.
right
but NY, LA, Chicago are all seen as attractive FA destinations, and it’s not clear to me this has helped them draw better FAs.
I agree about I-5 Rivalry
I think the Rockets should be our new Rivals, besides LA. They took Drexler. They beat us in the playoffs? Time to go down Houston.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
Rivalry until
the Thunder can’t afford to pay for what the talent will demand. I have more confidence that Paul Allen will be able to do just that.
A fascinating rivalry for years to come.
I’ll be the first to admit that my judgment may be colored because I’m irked that the Blazers are no longer the coolest young team on the block, but I just don’t see the Thunder being the team to beat in the West in the next five years. It’s us. Here’s why.
1) The Thunder lost very few players to injury in 2009-2010.
The Thunder must have shaken hands with Old Splitfoot to have the incredible run of good health that they enjoyed last season. Nick Collison missed seven games. James Harden missed six. Nenad Krstic missed six. As far as players making significant contributions to the team, that’s it. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that OKC will have their core of Durant/Westbrook/Green/Ibaka play 80+ games each next year, and if their health regresses to the expected mean, it’ll have a deleterious impact on their record. Portland won 50 games starting the corpse of Juwan Howard at center and with virtually every rotation player missing significant time. OKC won fifty with perfect health. Draw your own conclusions about the ceiling of each team.
2) The Thunder’s talent is overrated.
An almost heretical concept given the Thunder lovefest at the national level, but I stand by it. There’s no doubt that Durant is a superduperstar and one of the top five players in the league by just about any metric. Westbrook is a borderline All-Star who’s gaining valuable experience at the international level, which may enable him to make The Leap this season (paging LaMarcus Aldridge…).
But beyond that duo? Ibaka is a Ty Thomas-esque pogo stick who’s a great energy guy. Collison and Krstic are serviceable NBA bigs. James Harden better show more than he did as a rookie to justify his lofty draft status. Eric Maynor is a good backup point guard. Thabo Sefolosha dreams about being Nic Batum at night. Cole Aldrich will be a rugged interior defender with a limited offensive game. Jeff Green is a significantly below-average NBA player. Does that supporting cast strike fear into the hearts of NBA front offices? Heck no. The Thunder had better hope that either Westbrook leaps into the Williams/Paul discussion in the West or that Harden and Ibaka significantly progress or they’ll be second-round fodder for the next five years.
3. The Thunder have no elite big man.
Unless Kevin Durant is the next Michael Jordan (and I’m not dismissing that possibility out of hand…but let’s assume that he’s not) he had better hope that Presti finds a Gasol-level steal out there, because every non-Jordan championship team in the last 20 years has featured an All-Star caliber pivot. Kobe has proven that it’s possible in the post-Jordan era for a team featuring a wing scorer as the primary player to win titles, but even he needed Gasol’s arrival in L.A. to defibrillate the Lakers’ fading championship hopes. The Ibaka/Collison/Krstic/Aldrich paint rotation is simply not good enough for the Thunder to be a truly elite team. A comparison to Oden/Aldridge/Camby/Przy is laughably in favor of the Blazers. Which brings me to my next point…
4) The Thunder have no answer for Greg Oden.
Greg threw around Al Horford and Joakim Noah like rag dolls in the NCAA title game three years ago. A show of hands from those who think Aldrich and Krstic will be able to handle him? Anyone? Bueller? If GO is healthy (a qualifier I’m as tired of adding as everybody else is of seeing it) the Blazers will own the paint at both ends of the floor. It’s neck and neck between us and the Lakers for the best melange of rebounding bigs in the league, and the Thunder aren’t knocking at the door of the discussion. As I mentioned before, having at least one elite post player is a virtual prerequisite for winning a championship. We have one….and Oklahoma City doesn’t.
5) Our style of play counters OKC’s offensive strengths.
If Nate is out as head coach after this season then all bets are off. But his brand of slow-it-down, ball-control basketball is just what the doctor ordered against a team that thrives on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. The Blazers did an excellent job last season of not allowing transition opportunities to their opponents and of taking care of the basketball. When you deny players like Ibaka, Westbrook and Durant the opportunity to get easy baskets in the open floor and turn the Thunder into a half-court team, they’re vulnerable. We can do that every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
It’s a what have you done for me lately league. If national pundits want to believe that OKC’s perfect-health fifty win season is somehow more impressive than Portland’s injury-ravaged one….if they want to tag the Thunder as the team to watch in the West, the group most likely to take down the Lakers…if Portland’s going to backslide in ESPN’s 1-30 franchise Power Rankings…so be it. The Blazers were national darlings two years ago, and what did it actually accomplish for the team? Not a thing. Whomever puts the ball in the hoop most often wins, and no amount of bloviating by the MSM about how the Thunder are the new team to beat will change that basic fact. The Blazers are going to come into this season forged by adversity and determined as hell. We’ll see what tunes are being sung when the PTB have the best record in the West at the All-Star break.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 12:10 AM PDT reply actions 23 recs
Great analysis
“IF GO is healthy . . . . " ughh. And Interested makes an interesting point about owners’ ability to keep talent.
Even if the Thunder and Blazers start to match up well and be simultaneous contenders I think a couple of other divisional factors will delay the possibility of a prime PKC-PDX rivalry:
1. The fall-out of the move from Seatlle – i.e. the prime arch rival location;
2. The hate/respect for the Jazz and Nuggets will take a while to dissipate ASSUMING they take some steps backwards. Best not to assume anything, especially with the Jazz. There is a long history of not liking Utah in particular and that won’t go away easily.
put a body on 'em
So much rec...
This is basically exactly everything I think. I’d like to add/emphasize a few things:
1. Andre Miller owns Russell Westbrook, based on the games from this last year. That’s pretty cool.
2. A full year of Marcus Camby is worth more, in my opinion, than the internal growth the Thunder will have. Not to mention a full year of Batum, healthy Roy, etc etc. I think even before you consider Greg Oden, just the players we’ll get back from injury far surpass any improvement OKC can hope to make.
3. Their defense got worse over the season (I remember reading this and from game logs it appears so but I can’t find a hard drtg split by month), which means it probably was just a fluke how good it was early in the season.
The one thing that really scares me is that Sam Presti is very, very good, and they only have $36 mil under contract after this season.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Oh, yeah, as odenator posted below
Jeff Green is waaaay overrated, playing out of position, and I really hope they sign him to a fat extension forever.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
wow excellent post
I would say Durant is unlikely to be as good as MJ. That is a level that scoring and metrics cannot meesure. historically being the scoring champion on a middling team is a deathnoll to greatness except for MJ. We have/OKC’s number now and will for the forseeable future.
by Odenrising on Aug 30, 2010 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
scoring-wise they're similar
will Durant take over games and will his team to win?
will KD make his teammates better by dishing the ball to open shooters when he’s doubled?
will Kevin defend like MJ did?
These are a few of the areas of seperation. Durant is a very good scorer, but so were , Dominique Wilkins, George Gervin and T-MAc and they didn’t win championships, like MJ
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The most glaring flaw in Kevin Durant's game is that he's a poor passer and turnover prone, ...
which is where the George Gervin comparison comes into play. Even Tracy McGrady was a decent distributor of the basketball in his short prime, which can’t be said for Durant.
I'll dismiss the possibility of Durant being the next Jordan out of hand if you won't
There’s no doubt Durant is a gifted offensive player, but his defense, while no longer putrid, is nothing to write home about. Jordan won a DPotY award and was consistently 1st team all defense.
Can I get an Armon?
I think MJ wasn't a huge defender in his first NBA years....I think he became a good defender after
about 5 years or so in the NBA. Didn’t follow him closely so may be wrong on the amt of years. But know MJ developed his defense. He was not a defender from the beginning.
That is correct
He was knocked for his defense early in his career.
The biggest difference between Michael Jordan and everybody else was his intense need to improve his game and prove everybody wrong about him.
Kevin Durant is a talented player, but let’s not put him in the Hall of Fame just yet, never mind compare him to MJ.
He got away with fouling on defense ala Kobe
It got to be offensive. I wonder how long it will take the refs and KD to work that wrinkle out.
In KP I trusted!
KD already gets wayyyy too many calls in his favor. He does that "let's dance" wrap
around move and the other guy gets the foul call. I’ve seen him do it more than once to Batum and it really made me mad.
In fact, though there are those who go on and on about what a great guy KD is and when I think of this little move of his, I disagree. I think of it as a cheap move that a “GREAT guy” wouldn’t pull.
Jordan was DPotY his 4th year in the league
Durant is not on track to hit that mark.
Can I get an Armon?
by Magnum on Aug 30, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jordan also missed most of his 2nd year to a foot injury
so that was his 3rd full season in the league
Can I get an Armon?
MJ also played for 3 years in college...I think KD played only one.
I still prefer MJ over durant though. Even though MJ is probably much more of a donkey than Durant..personality wise that is!!
You covered much of what I was going to say
So, I’ll just add a couple things:
1) This relates to the Thunder’s injury free 09-10 season: they haven’t experienced adversity yet. How will they respond when things aren’t rosy?
2) Teams will certainly prepare more for the Thunder this season. 50 win teams don’t get overlooked or taken lightly.
Can I get an Armon?
OKC uses the same training methods that the Suns use. They may have many good years as far as low injury rates go....
Sure the Suns have had great success with their training staff. However, the Thunder’s injury record this year was freakishly low, and probably unsustainable, even by Phoenix standards. The Suns have had injury issues with the following key cogs in their machine:
Leandro Barbosa—Less than 65 games in three of his seven years in the league
Amar’e Stoudemire—Less than 55 games in three of eight years in the league
Robin Lopez—Serious back issues which the training staff never did get a grip on, and his failure to get into game shape for the Lakers’ series was potentially very costly (only played 51 games this past year as well).
The Suns have done phenomenally well treating what appear to be chronic injury issues (Nash’s back, Hill’s feet, Shaq’s everything), but that doesn’t mean that you can avoid the luck of the draw altogether. Missing less than 10 games combined as a team is just ridiculous.
I disagree on the Ty Thomas/Ibaka comparison. Ibaka brings the fire on the court and isn’t a knucklehead or headcase; Thomas is inconsistent and a lot of people wonder where his head is. He’s a borderline headcase and has some knucklehead to him. You couldn’t get Ibaka for Ty Thomas + a pick, and that’s ignoring their contracts.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
I think their styles of play are similar.
I didn’t mean to say or imply that Ibaka is a head case, because I don’t think he is. He’s definitely an improvement from TT. I just see his ceiling as a poor man’s Anderson Varejao. Not that that’s a bad thing, obviously, but I don’t believe he’ll ever be an offensive option in the post or an All-Star caliber shot-blocker and rebounder.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
He was a 20 year old rookie who had never played in the NCAA.
Absurd to think he’s hit his peak, especially considering his in-season improvement (which was significant).
I see his ceiling as an Amare caliber athlete, with a much heavier focus on defense/rebounding instead of offense. Playing on this team with the scoring they already have, probably peak around 19 and 12 with a couple of blocks.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think he's hit his peak.
I just don’t see the same amount of upside that you do. Reasonable people disagreeing and all that.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure, fair enough.
But since we’re talking about it and everything, let’s take an example of Batum, another 20 year old international kid who came over when he seemed like he was far too raw to play in the NBA. He ended up getting way more playing time than we expected, 18 mpg, and looked like a legit player who played great defense and produced enough statistically to absorb that chunk of minutes.
Well, Ibaka played arguably better than Batum did in similar minutes per game, and certainly played much much better in the playoffs than Batum did. So you understand why there’s an argument that his future is incredibly bright, considering everyone here argues that Batum’s future is also very bright?
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
"So you understand...also very bright?"
Oh, absolutely. I could be grossly underselling Ibaka’s potential, and I’m sure that if he and Batum were to swap teams, I’d be every bit as high on Ibaka as I am on Batum.
I think that Batum has demonstrated more polish to this point than Ibaka, and I’m a little bit dubious of the “potential” label that’s affixed to every uberathletic big man. For every Ibaka that blossoms, there’s a Ty Thomas or Stromile Swift that doesn’t, hence my reticence to believe that he’ll become the kind of player you envision. But I’ve been wrong before many times and expect to be wrong in the future many times, so what do I know, really.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I also envision Serge Ibaka having a difficult time honing certain skills like ...
Stromile Swift. So, even though there’s no denying Ibaka’s talent or ability to harness his athleticism and play defense with intensity, it’s up in the air regarding whether or not he’ll polish his game sufficiently.
It's not a terrible argument or anything
but I guess I don’t see the parallels to Stro or Ty Thomas partly because Serge has got substantial size over those guys. Stro and Ty strike me as pogo stick tweeners, with a lot of athleticism but not a lot of ability to bang in the paint.
Serge is more of a true PF size, and has the ability and inclination to throw his body around.
by howlingfantods on Sep 3, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm leaving Bedge
BlazersOrBust is smarter and more articulate than me, and says everything I want to say anyway.
Oh, except that I want to say “rec” and he didn’t say that.
Odds are, in reality part of the comment above this signature is wrong, but since I know it is right, I'll defend it to the death. Contradict me at your peril. Never believe that having the facts on your side will make a bit of difference.
You can't go!
Then we’ll only have AK telling us how incredibly smart he is, and while he could do an admirable job in your stead, I wouldn’t ask him to carry the mock-hubris burden alone.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
jscot can only leave if it is to complete his goal of world conquest
I want a post in the administration!
In KP I trusted!
Very good post
Question: how much of Sam Presti’s genious was Rich Cho? OUR Rich Cho? So that offsets some of Presti’s magic.
Counter to point 2
Perhaps the Thunder are overrated from an offensive standpoint, but they have two things going for them that should not be underrated: 1) offensive chemistry, and 2) defense. OKC has hustle players that play their roles well and provide Durant the room he needs on offense. Jeff Green is more sly than you think, and he does a little bit of everything. He doesn’t put up big numbers but he is efficient and has made the Blazers pay in games I have seen. Collectively, the Thunder puts up a pesky defensive front that gives the Blazers little room for error. I don’t think the Thunder is built for a championship unless they can get that second all-star, but I think they represent a problem for the Blazers in the playoffs. I look at the Thunder like a European national team that doesn’t have great players, but finds a way to beat U.S. NBA all-stars because they play better (maybe uglier) as a team. To me, the Thunder have that slightly disorganized chemistry that riddles the Blazers a la Golden State. I agree that the Thunder are overrated, but that doesn’t change the fact that they have what it takes to beat the Blazers. That said, I still bet on the Blazers every time in a 7-game series.
I don't get the media obsession with the Thunder
I understand they have an all-world player in Durant and a pretty good PG in Westbrook, but that’s about it. Thabo – ok, Green – overhyped and out of position, Nenad – fights like a girl. Their bench is decent. But they exceeded expectations w/ 50 wins and without much injury and the Blazers spent most of the time in a nursing home and still won 50 games. A healthy Portland vs a healthy OKC is no contest – Portland wins 3 out of 4.
Well, after BlazersorBust's extensive and well thought-out look at the matchup
there’s not much I can add to that; so i’ll just say, come late October, we’ll let the play of the two teams speak for itself. And most of the time the national media is wrong anyways so good for the OKC Durants.
OKC has some legit issues
1) Turnovers
2) Inefficiency at the 2 guard position
3) Interior defense
Until they resolve those issues, they will struggle to beat the top teams.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
re #2
Harden was a rookie and will improve, I really like his game. He’s a scorer ala Reggie Williams but with better court vision. His D isn’t exactly on par with Thabo’s, but the Spurs have thrived for years starting a defensive wing and bringing Ginobili in off the bench…so I’d imagine the Thunder plan to do the same
I can honestly look at the Thunder as a pretender threat. Too much offensive focus. Blazers defense
will overpower them. My god we beat them at their best with no Roy, Oden, and Pryzbilla.
Cole Alrich? hahahhahahaha Thunder should have tanked and got Cousins. They are good enough that they can’t buld through the draft anymore, but not good enough to make it far in the playoffs.
they have entered
The dreaded too good to get good draft picks but not good enough to win it all zone
by Odenrising on Aug 30, 2010 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hmm, people are sleeping on Cole Aldrich.
Aldrich is more Andrew Bogut than Joel Przybilla, except without Bogut’s passing skills. I don’t want to read anything more about height, either, since standing reach — which Aldrich has got in spades — is way more important for a post player than how tall they are without shoes.
aldrich lacks mobility and lift
Bogut went no 1 for a reason. Aldrich has a lot more offense than joel but how will it transfer to the NBA?
yeah seriously.
Aldrich is going to be really good, exactly what that team needs. Lacks mobility and lift? He was one of the top rebounders and shotblockers in his draft class, with pace adjusted numbers similar to Greg’s. A little less of a scorer, but OKC doesn’t need a scorer at C.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 3:04 AM PDT up reply actions
seriously
Comparing aldrich to Oden? Yikes
Uh. No. Just saying he had good numbers.
Hey how about addressing the point instead of dishing out useless snark?
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 3:35 AM PDT up reply actions
snark?
Aldrich didn’t accomplish those numbers against grade a talent. Even when okc drafted him several of the experts stated it was a reach but it was an attempt to fill their biggest need. If those numbers indicated a center of the quality of bogut he would have gone sooner. Read the predraft assessments. Numbers aren’t as important as opposition especially in college ball. Sorry if you felt slighted
Big 12's been consistently stronger than Big 10
for awhile now. Not sure where you’re coming up with an “inferior talent” argument.
Yes, Oden was a better prospect because he’s better offensively, but Cole had comparable rebounding and block stats. That doesn’t mean I think they were equal prospects. Like I said, Oden’s better at the offensive end, and most basketball evaluators, GMs, press, etc all care a lot more about the offensive end than the defensive end.
The reason he’s a great fit for OKC is that they don’t care about scoring from the C position, just defense and rebounding.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Oden took Ohio state to the championship game
And dominated Horford and Noah. Oden took a previously average team all the way to the title game.
Kansas went to the NCAA final when Aldrich was a bench player. He racked up some pretty good stats against teams like Dayton in his soph and junior seasons. Who did he play against, in the post, that you can say yes these stats will translate to the NBA?
You posted he is going to be really good. Yet state he isn’t good offensively. Comparing his defense and rebounding numbers to Oden. Yet he averaged more points a game his last season than Oden did as a freshman.
I can see the kid has some game but it is a long shot for bigs drafted out of the top ten to have big impacts early in their careers. Even if he shows us something in the next three years I seriously doubt he can have a fraction of the impact on defense or offense that GO has already shown.
Yet he averaged more points a game his last season than Oden did as a freshman.
Not unless 11 is bigger than 16 in your world.
He racked up some pretty good stats against teams like Dayton in his soph and junior seasons.
Every college program faces a bunch of creampuffs on their schedule. Including Ohio State.
I can see the kid has some game but it is a long shot for bigs drafted out of the top ten to have big impacts early in their careers.
I had no idea that 10 was such a magic number. I don’t evaluate draft picks on where they’re taken, I evaluate them based on what I’ve seen. Sometimes GMs are stupid. And sometimes, draft classes are a lot deeper than other times.
Even if he shows us something in the next three years I seriously doubt he can have a fraction of the impact on defense or offense that GO has already shown.
That doesn’t actually contradict anything I’m saying. Despite your odd need to continue to believe that I’m comparing the two players, I only cited their comparable block/rebounding numbers to point out that saying that Aldrich lacks mobility and lift as you did was extremely inaccurate. You don’t have block/rebounding numbers like he does without mobility and lift.
I mentioned Greg’s numbers in this context just to point out to you that Aldrich’s numbers are very very good for a strong conference like the Big 12 or the Big 10 in Oden’s case. Not to say that they’re comparable players. Understand the difference?
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Defense is Oden's greatest asset
He’s incredibly imposing and completely changes the complexion of the other team’s offensive approach. It sounds like you’re saying Aldrich is better than that. It also sounds like you’re saying that Ibaka will be better than Amare.
No.
I can imagine that Aldrich could end up better defensively but it’s not the most likely outcome. Basically if Greg comes back hobbled from injury, if he never gets the hang of playing defense without fouling, then Aldrich could be better, but it’s more likely that Greg will be better.
I said about Ibaka the following:
I see his ceiling as an Amare caliber athlete, with a much heavier focus on defense/rebounding instead of offense.
That does not say “I think Ibaka’s going to be better than Amare”. If I believed that, I would state that clearly. I compare the two since they’re similar sizes and similar in terms of athleticism. But Amare is a much more polished offensive weapon with a unique offensive skillset, possibly the best pick and roll finisher behind only Karl Malone. He is however a terrible rebounder and defender.
Ibaka’s rough offensively but he hustles and plays very hard defensively and rebounds with force. Pretty much the same body but very different skills and focus. I don’t believe Ibaka will ever be a multiple all-nba teamer the way Amare has been, but I think I’d prefer to have him on my team.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
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"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
by dario argento on Aug 30, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
too much offensive focus?
They were a much better defensive team than offensive
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2010.html
defensive rankings in the league:
defensive efficiency: 9th
FG% allowed: 6th
eFG% allowed: 4th
offensive rankings in the league:
offensive efficiency: 13th
FG%: 14th
eFG%: 20th
so given your premise that they are “too much offensive focus,” what does it say about them that as the youngest team in the league they are already a top 10 defense and only a middling offense? I’d say it means they are legitimately good and that with a little more seasoning and time playing together the offense numbers are only likely to climb and the defense can still get better. This is going to be a very, very, good team.
I think they'll be good
but it’s a little too soon to be saying that they’ll be able to improve offensively with little drop-off defensively. First, their offensive scheme is just terrible. Like a lot worse than the Blazers terrible. It consists essentially of trying to score off the break, then if that doesn’t work, running around like chickens without heads. Presumably, Scottie Brooks is the one getting the to play good defense, but he’s also the one who’s implemented a pretty terrible offense.
Second, Thabo is a big reason they play good defense. When he’s on the court though, the Thunder are basically playing four on five. And he’s been in the league four years, so it’s not like he’s going to make serious strides. Long-term, he’ll probably have to play less in favor of Harden, which will hurt their perimeter defense.
You are right that the Thunder have an excellent nucleus, and some of the offensive scheme issues and overreliance on great wing defense could be solved if they can get a good big rotation. It won’t be easy though. Development never is.
The Thunder is a good defensive team
Top 10 last year, and improving. You can argue that the team is overrated on many levels, size being key, but you cannot say that they are a poor defensive team.
by stevecolterssocks on Aug 30, 2010 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
they played pretty good defense in the game I saw at the RG last year. What was the score
89-77 or something like that? Course we didn’t have Oden . And McMillan had one of the WORST player rotations I’ve ever seen him put in during a game…or one of the top five worst.
So it wasn’t all OKC’s defense…
Not a problem this year (everyone healthy, but OKC will be way, way under the cap in 2011-12.
So the future depends on what kind deals Presti can do to get another superstar or at least an all-star quality big man. Their future could be very, very bright with the right acquisition or two.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 30, 2010 1:08 AM PDT reply actions
Moving Jeff Green for the right fit alongside Kevin Durant at the forward positions is by far the most ...
important thing on Sam Presti’s plate at this moment. We’ll see how that pans out in the near future, too.
I think they already have the perfect running mate
with Serge Ibaka. That kid is going to be great.
If I were Brooks, I’d start Ibaka and use Green as a backup to both forward spots, cut down Durant’s minutes a little bit from 40 to around 35-36. Or Presti should trade Green while he still has value, but I think he’s got locker room value above his playing ability.
Ultimately, that team should have all the young guys as the starters— you want Harden to beat out Sefolosha at SG, Ibaka to replace Green, and Aldrich to replace Krstic as soon as possible. Average age of 21 which is a little crazy, but that’s how that team should be built.
Still a year or two away, though. For them to really contend, they need Harden/Ibaka/Aldrich to develop at least another year.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, but...
that cap space has to fill out a roster. Unless Jeff Green gets traded, or is allowed to just walk (unlikely), he’s going to get paid something. So is Cook (though he might just be allowed to walk). Both Collison and Krstic are not included in their cap total for that year, but it’s very unlikely they won’t retain at least one of them, with a hit to their cap space. Depending on what happens with the cap, they might have room for a medium-big contract ($8-10 million), but probably not a max contract.
Odds are, in reality part of the comment above this signature is wrong, but since I know it is right, I'll defend it to the death. Contradict me at your peril. Never believe that having the facts on your side will make a bit of difference.
Presti is very good. He has a boat load of expiring contracts after this year,
so I wouldn’t bet against him finding a way to parlay that cap space into another all-star (or better) next summer and then continue to fill out the roster over another year or two. If he can, OKC will be a force to be reckoned with. I think Durant is going to get better and better.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 30, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
So was chicago....
And i think they struck out. welll for what they were hoping to get anyways.
Besides, who is really out there that they would sign?
"It's just senseless! 33 million for 2 years of Z-Bo? Might as well pay 33 million to get kicked in the balls 82 times a year."-Eric in Madison(Canis Hoops)
by YikesItsCameron on Aug 30, 2010 1:31 AM PDT reply actions
This year the blazers are better
This is not the matchup that defines the west Ever (in the next five years) there is this team in Los Angeles, the clippers, they’re pretty good right now no ones about to pass chloes team yet. So theblazers Thunder is not going to turn into a Detroit Pistons vs. Ron Artest type brawl/ rivalry.
As for who has a brighter future and the best chance to win a title the answer is far and away Oklahoma City.
Ya sure their interior defense is a little week (right now) they have some gaping holes at certain positions that if remain unchecked might prevent them from truly contending or even keep them out of the playoffs once in a while. But with that much cap room shouldn’t go unchecked even if ebenezer scrooge took over as gm they’ll be far enough under cap to add the right pieces. Where as the blazers are one superstar/allstar away from winning it all and barring massive roster changes are perennialy first/second round fodder. The blazers though are at a point where getting better costs quality players minutes making minor adjustments just treads water for us at this point.
I love B-Roy hes damn good, can do it all. But we are a team that is top five in offensive efficiency and whos only hope on defense is our bigs making up for all our wings . Our seond offensive option plays less deffense then Ricky Davis Batum is our best perimeter defender and he’s only slightly above average. So that leave our glut of seven footers in the middle to clean up the mess. Thankfully they do a hella of a job though but they cant guard everybody. Uneless we get two more. That’s how it works right?
But OKC has Kevin Durant I’m talking about the twenty two year old that finished second in mvp voting last year, set a record for being the youngest player to win a scoring title, set a record for most points scored in the rookie game, but more important then all that the man is obsessive. I mean he likes OKC because he can focus on basketball. Nobody likes OKC nobody. But Kevin Durant plays there and likes it theres not going to be any south beach escapade from this guy he’s too obssesive. He obsesses over his jumper, his defense, his athleticism the man is well THE MAN.
He’s so good that west brook is a good enough #2 on offense. If they just keep adding defensive minded players like sefolosha who some people think played better “D” last year then Shane Battier (lookin at you Kelly Dwyer) With some defensive minded bigs who are easy to find Bass, Haywood, Gortat, Dalembert, Landry, Pryz, hell Kurt Thomas and a bit more growth from from Westbrook and Durant and this is the team to beat in the west once kobe gets old.
Even if things workout incredibly well for the blazers and Oden really is equal to Dwight Howard . . . . lol(in a twelve year old girl voice). There’s still Durant the man won’t rest on his building laurels until he explodes. He will be better then Kobe, James, Jordan, and of course Marbury because he won’t stop. ever. even once he is the best. And because they have Durant all they need is Defense Presti knows this. That’s why he went after sefolosha. Westbrook and Green were drafted for their defense although ‘’i think Greene might have forgotten that. And There’s always people ready to come in and be garbage men and thats all OKC needs.
by Jesse C on Aug 30, 2010 2:26 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
MVP votes don't win titles
Neither does public acclaim or scoring titles. Defense and balanced scoring and premier big men win titles.
Well OKC already has defense
You’re right that they probably still need an interior post player, but I wouldn’t sleep on Serge Ibaka, that guy looks like he could be a very, very good power forward with a couple more years of seasoning.
1) They are a much better defensive team than the blazers.
2) Balanced scoring? Really? That’s the argument you make after the Lakers win twice?
3) Premier big men? Really? That’s the argument you make after the clash of the titans between Bynum and Perkins?
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Gasol
is who makes that Offense go in LA, make no mistake, Kobe needs Gasol to win, and Gasol is their premier big man, not Bynum.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Aug 30, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gasol might be the best pf in the league according to Kelly Dwyer,
but we’re still talking about a Robin to Kobe’s Batman. If winning the title was about who had the best big man in the league, Dwight would have at least two rings.
So yes, the Lakers have a premier big man. But winning the big man battle doesn’t guarantee you success. Dwight in the 09 finals – 15 pts, 15 rebs with 4 blocks/game. Pau – 19 pts, 9 rebs with 2 blocks/game. Very good but not better than Dwight.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Hence the balances scoring statement
Pau had four – five other players laying down double digits on offense. Howard had Turkeyglue and Lewis and a broken point guard to play with. So if LA had Howard instead of Pau would they be better or worse?
... that makes no sense.
Orlando had FAR more balanced scoring than LA did. Kobe averaged 27, Pau averaged 19, Bynum averaged14, Lamar averaged 11, and no one else averaged double figures. Orlando had five guys average double figures, with no one scoring over 20 ppg.
But yes, LA would be better if they had Howard instead of Pau, as good as Pau is.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Westbrook is OK, but no better then Dre.
You can give him his contribution and we still win, so long as we can contain, not stop KD.
hg
Westbrook is probably the best rebounding point in the NBA
The question is how much better will he get and who else on that roster is gonna step up to a MUCH higher level?
eh, his reb% is 8.4% instead of 7%, is that a big deal?
and he’s pretty inefficient on offense…TS below 50%.
Of course he’s young and will probably improve, but ‘much superior’?
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
For a point guard, that's a decent difference. They're both fine rebounders for their ...
position, though. That aside, though, you’re right that Russell Westbrook has efficiency problems; he’ll need to fix that by improving on his mid-range and long-range shooting percentages.
He's young enough that he was even a different player
at the end of the season compared to the start of the season.
Andre last season was a slightly better scorer. Russ was a better distributor, more terrifying on the fast break, better rebounder and better defender. I’d put Russell last year at a notch above Dre, as much as I like Dre. Russ somewhere in the top 10, Dre somewhere in the top 15. Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised with Russ in the top 5, Dre only cracking the top 20.
by howlingfantods on Sep 1, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
lol(in a twelve year old girl voice).
I pretty much read this entire response with that same voice in mind
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 30, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Durant durant durant
Sick of him already
Nic Batum is gonna be his kryptonite and the thunder are gonna be the never was.
by doomsdaymachine on Aug 30, 2010 4:55 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Insert Batum and Thunders won't even rumble
hg
by BBK on Aug 30, 2010 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That may be true
but Batum can slow Durant down enough to make an impact. If it chews up Nic’s offensive energy, it doesn’t matter because he is really just a 4th option on offense anyway.
This is a big reason why I think the Blazers are better and will be better than OKC — they just have more overall talent, even if OKC has the best individual player.
don't sleep on Wesley Matthews
he’ll “accept the challenge” of defending the Durantula when Nic isn’t on the floor
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 30, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
POR vs. OKC
The question of who’s ultimately better between these two teams won’t be answered for at least 2-3 more seasons. Right now as it stands the Blazers have the more talented and experienced core of players. There is no question that Durant is a special player and I enjoy watching his game, but it will take some serious roster changes before OKC can surround him with the necessary talent to advance far into the playoffs. When teams do that it often takes a few seasons for all the cylinders to click. The Blazers just went through that process and now it’s gonna pay off. My two cents….
"He's the one Natural One makes it easy, he can take it inside"
We are better now and will remain better unless OKC acquires an amazing crew of big men
In KP I trusted!
And an owner with really deep pockets
to shell out the cash necessary for the big names OKC is going to need around Durant in the future. Westbrook alone just isn’t going to cut it.
"He's the one Natural One makes it easy, he can take it inside"
The lesson of the Veteran
Portland learned the first time in the playoffs against Houston that you need savy vets as role players. Who does OKC have in that role. Last year, the Blazers were reasonable in the playoffs despite not having two starters one being the an allstar team leader. Those vets (Miller and Camby) kept us somewhat in the series. That is why Miller ate Westbrook for lunch in each meeting last year. OKC hasn’t learned this lesson yet as evidenced but the lack of acquisitions.
Both teams have room for improvement; that is why the L@kers are still the team to beat in the west. Portland’s biggest need is to get its players healthy. OKC however needs a big and more consitency from the young wings. Right now Portland has better team prospects but OKC has the best player in KD. Still to me, a Portland’s best 8 men is better than OKC and therefore will fall behind the Blazers come playoffs.
In a league where the focus is on individuals...
…The Thunder will probably aways be overrated — at least in the near future. That said, I’m rooting for Durant (but not at the expense of the Blazers) — he seems to be a great guy and I’d like to see the whole mythology that one has to be a sociopath (a la Jordan and Kobe) to be the best be blown apart…
In the individual matchup pictured, KD will almost always come out on on
But if Oden is healthy, we are a better team. The reason that OKC lost in the playoffs was because they had no post presence. They would be helpless against a healthy, effective Oden.
Durant better not be next Jordan!
I will say what everyone does not want to hear, if Durant becomes the huge star that he could be then oh my what will Blazer fans think then? It could not possibly happen twice to one team, to pass on Jordan twice in 25 years?? Say it ain’t so! Please Oden, give us something this year!
Blazers
The guy who got the green background made some good points about OKC.
But enough with them, what about the Blazers?
What I want to see this season, and I think the prospects are good, is the Blazers coming on strong right out of the box.
Remember last year, before they were ravaged with injury the Blazers were playing crappy in preseason and early in the season. Their shooting was atrocious. They still won a lot of games, though, because a lot of other teams were also shooting like crap.
I think the prospects are good that this year they hit the ground running, instead of stumbling.
Further down the season, much harder to predict.
In the eyes of the league
Durant is the next Kobe (Kobe being the next MJ etc.)
That is why Durant gets superstar calls in his 2nd season and said calls are a huge contributing factor in his overall offensive numbers.
This phenomenon is going to be difficult to overcome…
…unless Oden becomes the next Shaq.
No matter what, these will always be entertaining division games.
we can still win........
Utah
In one sense I am disappointed that Utah lost Boozer because I think it would be great therapy for the Blazers to try to figure out how to beat a strong Utah team.
they replaced Boozer with Al Jefferson.
Utah will be jsut as good this year.
They lost Wesley Matthews, their starting 2 guard
Utah also lost a lot in Korver.
I like Al, but I wonder if he will fit with that team. He has never been on a winner.
In KP I trusted!
and they lost Ronnie Brewer
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
For me, I feel Utah will miss Kyle Korver's shooting more than anything from Ronnie Brewer ...
or Wesley Matthews combined. At the 3, I still think that the Jazz should consider moving Andrei Kirilenko for Tayshaun Prince and salary filler (e.g., Chris Wilcox & DaJuan Summers).
That's bold.
I would guess there’s better than a 50% chance that either the Thunder or the Blazers win a title in the next five years (Portland 30%, OKC 20-25%).
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
No, that's way too optimistic.
For whatever reason, people are laughably underestimating how utterly dominant the Miami Heat will be over the next five years.
I'm not underestimating them at all if you consider Wade's health a factor.
If he misses extended periods of time, which is a reasonable possibility, I don’t see a Bosh and James duo being appreciably better than the nucleus of any other contending team in the league.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Lebron and a bunch of scrubs made the Finals
Just Lebron and Bosh and a bunch of scrubs is a title contender.
Portland has a 40% chance with a healthy Oden
OKC has no chance unless they get a starting front court.
In KP I trusted!
Rec
I already hate the heat, but there’s an extremely good chance they’ll be stupid good. Like winning the next 3 championships in a row good.
I really really hope i’m wrong, but you’re talking about two top 5 players in the NBA on one team. And bosh. They will break records. :(
Miami won't get to face Dallas in the finals again
Which means Stern won’t be able to give Cuban the finger though the refs. Lebron Wade and Bosh are all very talented but that alone won’t make them winners. I think the Heat will dominate the east but the west is still eight teams deep . Those 8 would all be in the the top 4 in the east with Orlando, Boston and Atlanta. Thus the east has inflated records compared to western teams due to the disparity in talent. It’s more balanced this year due to Amare and Boozer moving east but the west is still more top heavy.
The Heat would be better off if they played more western foes than easrtern patsies. But alas we’ll see how they fare in the playoffs. Opponents will make their 4th or 5th option beat them. For Miami that is Halsem (good defender but ugly on O) or the designated PG scrub.
I hate to say it...
…but I think The Thunder have stolen our Thunder.
With an injured Brandon in the playoffs….plus the reality of Odens struggles- OKC passed us in perceived success for the future.
Can we right the ship? Sure. Healthy Oden, Healthy Brandon, Developing Batum, Aldridge firing on all cylinders….we are fine.
My greatest concern in regards to OKC is that I think “The League” will want to promote Durant to the hilt. Which means he’s going to get the Dwayne Wadish superstar calls.
Brandon is respected..but does he get those calls?
OKC has passed us while we struggled last season. We need to earn our place again. That means OKC games are big…and it IS a rivalry. I don’t need to throw a lot of analysis at it, if we are healthy…I like The Blazers roster marginally better than OKC’s. However, “If we are Healthy”…at least last season, was far too rare an occurance.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Very much disagree
OKC has passed us while we struggled last season.
As was pointed out above, OKC was healthy. We were not. Man for man, I believe the Blazers are more talented, even without Greg Oden being healthy. If he is, so much the better.
It is two small market teams — I don’t think the NBA cares about one more than the other either way. In fact, I don’t think the League wants anybody other than the Lakers coming out of the West, as far as TV ratings are concerned.
Is it a rivalry? Not yet, but I think it easily could become one if both teams can retain their primary players — you have two young teams with different styles. I could see a lot of great battles in the future.
Durant's durability
at some point HAS TO become an issue, unless they sit him down more, which will cost them wins.
Uh. Why?
He’s averaging 79 games per season. Why should they worry about his durability?
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
At some point, minutes have translated to injuries for every player not named Wilt Chamberlain
Could he break the mold? I suppose. Would I bet on it? No.
I will research this and I'm sure I'm ignoring some exception, but the point remains
Player minutes need to be managed, and they aren’t doing it.
Kobe for most of his peak.
Jordan for most of his peak. Bird for much of his peak. Etc etc etc.
Star players playing 38-40 mpg isn’t unusual.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't remember anyone saying that,
and it most definitely wasn’t true. A lot of guys really seemed to benefit from playing together, and seemed inspired by the competition and came back better than ever. Barkiey and Olajuwon come to mind.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Very Much...
Huh? You say you disagree with me, but did you read my post? I say, when healthy I think The Blazers are better, and I say I think OKC passed us “in perceived success” for the future.
To me agree with me or disagree, there is no doubt Kevin Durant and OKC have taken the mantle of up and coming team. I think we can earn it back, establish ourselves once again as a team to be reckoned with, BUT that means we must succeed. I don’t see too many more years…if any..when OKC doesn’t advance beyond the first round of the playoffs, The Blazers have yet to do that….and yes especially last year we can blame injury. But no excuses…what happens if Brandon once again is hampered by season long nagging injuries…what happens if Oden goes down hard again? At some point you are defined but what success you can create, injury or no injury.
Then you say, is it a rivalry? Not Yet. ( I could see a lot of great battles in the future).
Well? It’s obviously NOT a long established rivalry such as we have with LA. But I think given the unwarranted and painful connection between Oden and Durant, coupled with OKC’s and Portlands similar time lines for success if it isn’t a rivalry, it clearly should be. You don’t think OKC games are going to be huge this year?- I do. They are clearly one of the teams I most want to beat, that I think it important The Blazers have success against. That IMO makes it a rivalry.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
it's all about the bigs
right now the Blazers are the better team because we are superior inside, even without Oden. With a healthy big Greg in there, we are vastly superior
If the Lakers showed us anything last year – it’s that you can have the greatest perimeter scorer around, but you still need size and length inside to win
As for now, the Blazers have them trumped in that department. BUT WARNING: if the Thunder somehow land an elite big – either a PF or C, they instantly become incredibly dangerous
by rip_city_swagger on Aug 30, 2010 9:49 AM PDT reply actions
the sonic's biggest acquisition was a short joel przybilla
a tall joel przybilla is our third best center
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
by thomasikehara on Aug 30, 2010 9:54 AM PDT reply actions 8 recs
Rec.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I just thought it was funny.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Aug 30, 2010 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Right. Not only offensively (which isn't hard)
but I think Cole has a notch higher defensive potential. Joel gets a lot of blocks by gambling and getting out of position a little more than he should. Cole is the ideal Tim Duncan type of shotblocker who uses his length and reach to form a wall in front of the bucket but doesn’t get suckered out of position or get into foul trouble.
I admit I was a little worried about his 6’9 barefoot height, but then I saw his wingspan and standing reach. I think he’ll be just fine. I mean, his standing reach is half an inch shorter than Greg’s. Impressive.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I felt compelled to log in, despite this really bad public computer and terrible internet connection
I’ll admit that I haven’t seen Cole Adrich play, nor do I know much about him. But have you seen Joel Przybilla play? For the past four seasons or so, he’s been averaging fewer than 2 blocks per game. It’s not that his defense has regressed but matured. He takes more charges, and gambles LESS and rarely gets out of position.
I agree that standing reach is more important than height. We’ll see how he fares in the NBA though.
Blazers basketball? Just basketball you say? More like a way of life
by dyshooter182 on Aug 30, 2010 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I won't argue defense here, but on offense it's flat-out no contest: Cole Alrdrich > Joel Przybilla.
Unlike Przybilla, Aldrich has soft hands, can finish on the pick-and-roll, and can drain the occasional mid-range jumper. Seriously, Aldrich is so much better than Przybilla overall that it’s not even funny.
In a game of one on one
I’d put my money on Joel (a heatlhyJoel with knees). The guy is a vet and knows how to defend the post against real bigs (read Shaq Yao Howard). Aldrich has yet to play guys on par with them. And everyone knows that defense wins.
In an actual one-on-one game, Joel Przybilla would turn the ball over constantly and get ...
smoked. Now, in the context of the team game, I’d take Przybilla on defense and Cole Aldrich on offense.
I hate to say it yet again, it seems like it has become a mantra around these parts, but it all depends on Mr. Oden.
Without Greg holding down our middle, I don’t see a likely scenario where we can keep up with Durant’s rise. I think the guy is going to be MVP this year, has all the hype of the media ( which DOES help with wins), the love of the refs, and just keeps getting better. Very soon, facing Durant will be the same as facing Kobe or Lebron.
However, if Greg is clogging the lane, and with our deep roster, the mismatch of LMA, the glue of Batum, and the brilliance of The Natural, I just don’t see how The Sonics can keep up with us over the long run. When Greg is smashing peoples faces inside, we are just so much better. We will have vastly better interior play with Greg, and we all know how important that is in the playoffs.
The most likely scenario is probably that we meet in the playoffs several times in the coming years, and whoever is healthy at the time will prosper. The one thing that scares me is if The Sonics can nab another true superstar. If they do I think we are likely to watch several consecutive years of Sonics vs. Heat Finals.
"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
We haven't depended on GO during his first 3 years
And we’re not going to depend on him for the next 3 years, or ever. His contribution will help but the Trailblazers are only going as far as Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge carry us. My bet is we pick up another big man in a trade or next years draft because…. You know why. So I’ll take BRoy and LMA over Durant and Co. any day. OKC is where we were two years ago only they have fewer pieces to work with. JKSnake99 has the most likely prediction.
Child in bed: "Mama, the Thunder is so loud and scary!"
Mama: “Hush child, the Thunder can’t hurt you. It’s just noise.”
by MiledAnimal on Aug 30, 2010 10:29 AM PDT reply actions 9 recs
We should change our team name to Lightning now
We travel at the speed of light so we’re faster than the Thunder. Portland Lightning
Blazers basketball? Just basketball you say? More like a way of life
by dyshooter182 on Aug 30, 2010 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions
My gut tells me as-is we should match up very well.
With Oden and Pryz coming back, and a full year of Batum – I would feel very confident saying “advantage Blazers.”
Two reasons to discount that team who shall not be named
1. They are riding Kevin Durant like a rented mule. Plus, Durant is getting no rest this summer.
2. Karma.
Do you know how Durant used to train when he was a kid?
Playing some ball for the national team is nothing compared to the hell he was put through. And considering how basketball obsessed he is, if he wasn’t playing for the national team, he’d be playing anyways. He was doing three-a-days less than a week after his season was over.
by howlingfantods on Aug 30, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe he will break the mold, but the human body has a finite number of NBA minutes in it.
I’m sure if anyone can defy those limits, he can, given his frame and athleticism. But there are limits and some great athletes hit a wall after the ’92 dream team. He was the only player in the league last year with 3200+ minutes and only Iguodola rivals his minutes over the last two years.
They are pushing his luck.
Finite number of minutes?
Have you seen the minutes the Lebron and Kobe have put up of late? Include their national commitment on top of that too. There may be reasons the Thunder will underachieve, Durant playing too many minutes is not one of them.
Both K*be and LBJ are injured and not playing at Worlds
Next question.
In KP I trusted!
by LaoTzu on Aug 30, 2010 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think MJ was able to play relatively injury free during his
career despite incredible minutes because he worked out obsessively. He hired a personal trainer (who Jawan Howard still uses during the summers) He said that strength training was key for him to be able to play without injury through the playoffs etc.
Kobe and Lebron both follow this tact. However, they started playing in the NBA when they were 18.
I think it’s been said that player’s bodies are more likely to get more of a beating when they start in the NBA before at least 19 or even 20. They are still growing and their bodies/bones are more likely to incur damage in the long run.
KD doesn’t look like he’s built up as much muscle as any of these other players. So maybe that in combo with the fact that he has been OBVIOUSLY still growing since in the NBA…will make him more injury prone!!!!
He has played 83 minutes in the world championships so far
He would play just as many in training. The only scary thing today was a slip that might have tweaked something on some players, but he seems as flexible as Dirk or Prince and thus not very injury prone.
"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban
There is a real nice post on MavsMoneyball
About how the Spurs/Mavs rivalry fuels competition & ultimately brings out the best in both teams. Makes me miss the I-5 Rivalry.
The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net.
Blazers is better than Thunder now, especially the frontcourt players. I hope all players are healthy next season.
However there is one thing that Thunder have and Blazers dont. They have flexibility for next year new CBA.
In summer 2011:
Thunder have less than 20 M commited salary for 3 players (Durant, Aldrich, Sefolosha) plus team option salaries for Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Maynor, Mullens, White. If they pick up team options for those players, except White, they have 32M salary for 8 players. This is around 25 M cap space under current salary cap.
Blazers have around 50M commited salary for 7 players (Roy, Aldridge, Camby, Matthews, Babbitt, Williams and Johnson) + 1 M cap hold for Gomes. Team options for Batum, Bayless, Miller, Pendergraph, Cunningham, Mills, Fernandez. Free agents are Oden, Pryz.
Now, if NBA have a hard cap of 60 M, Blazers have to give up one of Batum and Oden. (can’t pick up Batum’s team options and give Oden offer sheet). Even if the CBA and the salary cap is the same as this year, Thunder can steal Oden and Pryz from Blazers by paying Oden to max contract (I hope it doesn’t happen though). And if Blazers decide to match it, Blazers will have another problem extending Batum.
If Thunder end up stealing Oden and Pryz, Blazers dont have frontcourt advantage anymore, especially when 36 yo Camby is declining. If they miss out on Oden/Pryz, there are several good big men free agents, such as Perkins, Marc Gasol, Horford, maybe Noah etc which can upgrade their frontcourt significantly.
Conclusion: Blazers are better now, but the future depend a lot on the CBA and what Presti will do next year.
No way in hell we let a division rival steal away two of our top 5 players?
Who do you think we are, the Jazz?
Gavingary is postulating the installation of a hard cap.
Unless the NBA allowed current players to be signed to teams over the cap, it wouldn’t matter how much money Paul Allen is willing to spend. We’d have to let go of all unsigned players we could not afford.
But I wouldn’t worry about that happening. Gavingary is trolling.
by MiledAnimal on Aug 30, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Postulating is correct
Should a hard cap come in something else must give. I’m postulating that players under current contracts would be retained by their teams or the Lakers etc. would be in trouble. I further postulate that there would be a minimum salary level which would eliminate cap space sandbagging like we saw last year.
Or I could postulate a boat load of other stuff like this year’s NY, Toronto, Chicago, Cleveland experience is going to greatly effect future player movement via new CBA rules. The Heat will be a huge draw whereever they play. That leaves Toronto and Cleveland with no draw almost every time they play. Owners ain’t gonna like that.
I couldn't imagine that the Heat would be forced to break up the big 3 after a single year
Because by gavingary’s logic they would have to due to a hard cap at 60 million would decimate the league darling team.
How weird would it be for the THunder to have both Oden and Durant?
Then we would REALLY be losers of the 2007 draft.
a hard cap is pretty darned unlikely though
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I doubt this will be the rivalry that defines the west in the next decade.
I don’t think the NBA would appreciate Portland and Oklahoma City in the western conference finals every season, every other season, or even 4 out of the next 10 years. I’m one of the people who believe that the smaller market teams have a disadvantage in the playoffs because the referees will favor the big market teams. I don’t know if I’m in the minority there. But it’s too bad. But if Greg Oden is healthy, the Thunder don’t stand a chance against the Blazers unless they find themselves a center.
I see the Thunder as our division rival.
For some reason I just don’t hate the Jazz and the Nuggets look like they’re taking some steps backward. The whole Oden vs. Durant thing should be coming to a reality in the near future so it works out perfectly.
Anything I write after midnight should be taken with a grain of salt.
In K.P. I STILL trust.
Travis Outlaw fan from the beginning.
It's gonna be PORTLAND VS OKC for years baby!!!
One reason that Batum is going to be SOOOOO important as a Blazer is because he did a better job on Durant last season than just about anyone else…held him to something life 33% shooting. And I don’t care how good the guy is, if he only hits 1/3 of his shots, Portland wins almost every time.
The big advantage Portland has is on the inside. The combo of Oden/Przy/Camby/Aldridge is just way too much for OKC to overcome.
WELCOME WESLEY MATTHEWS BABY!
This team is built to win, and I can’t wait to see them down the media darlings 3-1 this season.
you pessimist
4-0 this year or i am turning in my fan card
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
by thomasikehara on Aug 31, 2010 4:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree, but have to add:
Batum held KD almost scoreless the first half in the France-USA exhibition game until France took him off KD and put him on Rondo. Also, Durant beat Batum off the dribble a couple of times last year and Batum remembers things like that.
hg
OKC has the better backcourt,
Portland has the better frontcourt (if healthy).
Blazers have more experience in Marcus Camby and Andre Miller, but OKC plays more like a team (read: defense).
I think these teams are pretty comparable. I give the edge to OKC right now because they have fewer unknowns, and seem to have less ego/chemistry problems.
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
IF!!!!!!
If you are going to say that Portland has a better front court if healthy, then you should say that OKC has a better back court if healthy to make it fair. I may disagree with you on OKC having a better back court. Dre. BRoy, and Batum is equal to Westbrook, Durant and whoever this year.Batum and BRoy are healthy so you have to go with this year not last year.
hg
When Dre, Roy and Batum figure out how to play together,
then I think they could be equal or better than OKC’s backcourt. But that is one of many question marks about this Portland team. And question marks that persist 3/4 years in to a rebuilding cycle turn in to doubts. And problems left unaddressed only get more difficult to solve.
Portland could still become a powerhouse. But if I was betting on it, I would go with the known entity. And at this moment in time, OKC is more that than our Blazers.
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
long term, Bayless, Roy and Batum could be a pretty special trio
If Nic and Jerryd can knock down 3pt in the high 30 percentile, and they can take turns abusing the weakest perimeter defender on the opposing team, while still making sure the bigs get enough touches. Throw Matthews in there and that’s a young/active rotation
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
True but again
The reason they haven’t learned to play together is because of injury, If they were healthy then they would address the problem. As you said, Blazers front court is better if healthy and I added the backcourt may be better if healthy or if OKC had the same injury problems who would have the best back court?
hg
good question
guess we’ll find out!
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
even if oden gets hurt
portland has a better frontcourt than OKC
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
by thomasikehara on Aug 31, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Love your work Dave, but this thread was a complete waste of time.
The touchiest subject possible on BE is “Durant vs Oden,” the second-touchiest is “Durant,” and the third-touchiest is “Oklahoma City Thunder,” with Kobe fourth and the Lakers fifth. Did you really expect everyone to come on here and be objective about this budding rivalry in any way? Here are some things to consider:
1) Everyone has brought up how “lucky” the Thunder have been with injuries compared to the Blazers. Well, here’s some news: that’s not luck. Roy was the best player in the 2006 draft, but slid out of the top five due to concerns about the long-term health of his knees. Not surprisingly, he’s had multiple injuries to his legs since reaching the NBA. Oden also had injury concerns coming out of the draft (knees, wrist, fact that one leg was longer than the other). And those are only two of our three best players. Meanwhile, the injury history for OKC’s two best players (Westbrook and Durant) is completely blank. It’s not entirely an accident that OKC stayed healthy all year.
2) Oklahoma City’s lack of size has been a hot topic, and that’s overblown too; Nick Collison is a solid defender who took his defense up a notch last year, Serge Ibaka has the potential to be a rock-solid power forward, and there’s a reason why Cole Aldrich was a lottery pick this last year. There’s been a lot of talk about his lack of polish and a decent offensive game, but like us all the Thunder need from their center is defense, rebounding, and shot-blocking, and those are Aldrich’s biggest strengths. I think OKC’ll be fine down low.
3) Stop Durant, and you stop the Thunder. Right?….Well, yeah. Also, from 1991-1998, stop MJ and you stop the Bulls. From 1980-1988, stop Larry Bird and you stop the Celtics. From 2006-present, stop Kobe and you stop the Lakers. Wanna know why all those teams still won, despite that seemingly easy gameplan the other team had in front of them? Because those guys couldn’t be stopped. Durant’s not at the level of any of those guys yet, but the fact remains that other teams approach OKC the same way every time: “Throw our best defensive guy on Durant and make him kill for his points every time down the floor”…and Durant STILL scores thirty a game. Even in the playoffs, facing the best team in the league and one of the best defenders in the league (Artest), he still averaged 25 points a game. And you’ve got to remember that Durant’s only 22, so to think that he’s just peaking as a player now would defy almost everything that’s ever happened in terms of the development of NBA superstars.
That’s the devil’s advocate point of view. The bright side for the Blazers? There’s obviously no way that Aldrich hangs with Oden if Greg is completely healthy. Nic is one of the best defenders in the league, which means that Durant’ll still score his 25-35 against the Blazers…but he’ll have to work for every point. Durant’s also not the most inspired defender, so if Nic blossoms as a player (as expected), he’ll be the X-factor in OKC matchups. So really, how we play against the Thunder in the future all depends on Oden and Nic, IMO. Right now the Thunder have moved ahead of us, but if luck breaks our way we could easily move right past them.

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