Division Rivals

I’d say it goes like this:
1. Blazers
2. Jazz
3. Nuggets

I rank the Nuggets lowest because they’re a team that shows almost every likelihood of imploding soon, and Chauncey Billups, who’s the one that’s really made it happen for that team, is getting old enough that his decline becomes more and more likely. I’d be impressed if they could get good value for Carmelo and reload, but even then they’d probably dip below 50 wins for a season or two.

I rank the Jazz below us for a couple reasons. First, they want to avoid paying the luxury tax. And if you don’t want to pay the luxury tax, it’s hard to make those all-in commitments that must be risked to become a 55 or 60 win team instead of just a consistent 50 or 52 win team (as I’m sure they will continue to be). Plus they got worse. Jefferson is good, but not as good as Boozer not to mention the required on-court adjustments, Okur’s still hurt, and they lost a number of good players. So they’ll be good, but I can’t see them improving much at all.

In fact I think we’re better than the Jazz even without Oden, mainly based on Camby and how our season went after we got him (even without Roy being healthy or Przy playing). Looking forward to it. And I think if we do face the Jazz in a playoff series, we will need Oden much more, to be a terror in the paint and punish their lack of a true starting center on both ends.

(and for who if he does get traded) then I can answer your question. Until then, this is a little premature.

But we’ll assume no trade, for today.

Portland vs. Denver. We played them even down to the wire two years ago. Billups is older, but they have a good backup for him. They abused us with size last year, but I’m assuming the addition of Marcus and reasonable health will combat that. Melo, if still there, will be in a contract year, highly motivated, and their other guys will be looking at him and saying, “This may be our last chance.” If he’s still there, they will be a very dangerous team.

On the other hand, the schedule is not anywhere near as favorable for them this year as it was last year, I’ve been expecting them to implode for three years (Billups has prevented it so far but now it looks like Melo has kicked implosion into overdrive), and they simply don’t have the power to match up to us if we are reasonably healthy (if we aren’t reasonably healthy, this discussion isn’t worth having).

Denver with an untraded Anthony wins a lot of games and could give us a run for the division title, but we should beat them by 2-3 games.

Seven game series — hard to predict. We can’t really stop Melo, and Billups has been there, done that. We should be better than them, but can we come up with a game plan that exploits our advantages more than they will be able to exploit theirs? Home court advantage should help. I’d give us a 60% chance of winning.

Denver without Melo might be better/more dangerous, depending on who they get for him. They still have depth at the big positions, an explosive if inconsistent player in JR Smith, and Billups. If they can get a dependable scorer at SF and another nice player, and no head cases, they will have reduced their “likely to implode” ratio considerably, which is worth something.

Portland vs. Utah. For a couple years, Raja Bell may be about as good for them as Wesley was. He’ll fit nicely in their system. Boozer for Jefferson makes them marginally worse, in my opinion. Okur is out for a while, I believe. They will not be as good as last year. We should finish 5-6 games ahead of them, maybe more. I don’t see their roster as it currently stands getting close to 60 wins or being a major post-season threat.

Playoff series, head to head, I just have three words. Boozer is gone. We should have home court advantage, I don’t see them winning in Portland (again, assuming reasonable health), and I think we’ve got an excellent chance to win a game in Utah as well. Deron Williams can dominate a game, no doubt about that, but I don’t think they have any answer at all on the defensive end for Greg Oden inside, I think Nic effectively negates Kirilenko, I think Aldridge can defend Okur and Oden/Camby/Przybilla (whichever two are healthy) can hold down Jefferson. At worst, our front court should break even against them, and I like our backcourt more, and our bench is better.

Portland vs the “Blunder”. Last year, OKC lost about 0.3 games to injury, while we lost about 3,000, and we matched them with 50 wins. Neither event is likely to happen this year. Durant’s game is rounding out nicely, some of his flaws are going away or at least lessening, and his strengths are getting better. I still think Harden was a great acquisition for them, though most of last year he wasn’t all that consistent. I could see them, even with a few more injury problems this year, getting 50 again. If they are really fortunate on the injury front again, they could win 55, maybe even as many as 57. I don’t see that they really upgraded this year, they are relying on internal development. We added Marcus, which is a bigger/better acquisition, IMO, than they made. We will finish ahead of them, even if they manage to win 57.

Playoff series, we beat these guys. On those occasions when we came to play last year, we beat them. We beat them without Greg or Brandon. We beat them in OKC. They are too dependent on one scorer, and despite some of Nate’s flaws as a coach, there is one thing he is really good at — devising a defensive scheme against teams that are overly dependent on a single scorer. If Durant gets hot, they might steal a game in Portland, but we can win two in OKC for every one they get in Portland.

Wild card — I think they still have cap space, so they could pick up a center in an unbalanced trade, which could alter things by playoff time. But as currently constructed, they don’t beat us.

Denver especially appears ready come completely unglued.
Utah will still be dangerous. Sloan won’t allow them to slip too far too fast.
Okc are the media darlings but they still have a lot of holes in that roster. They also have had not one ounce of adversity. It is bound to happen and they will find out last year was easier than it should have been.
Portland has the most depth and the best supporting cast for Roy. Plus Oden, Batum, Bayless, and now Matthews all have the capability to improve individually.
Matchup wise we have the advantage against all of these teams especially with Oden. OKC and Utan are especailly hopeless to deal with his inside game. Denver isn’t much better off. With the individual defensive improvements…Healthy Oden and Batum,and Camby and Matthews, even a small offensive improvement should lead to a Division title and a substantial increase in wins.
Portland 59-23
Utah 50-32
Okc 48-34
Denver 45-37

assuming reasonable health. As was posted above, if they don’t have that, this conversation is irrelevant.

I don’t like Denver because it seems that is a combustible situation. Also, I wonder if Coach Karl’s health has an impact, because it seems like he is the emotional core of that team. I don’t think Anthony is motivated by this being his contract year — he’ll get his money regardless — largely because I think there are certain places he wants to go, and Denver isn’t one of them.

I don’t like Utah because I just think they are a bit thin, and stepped back in the Boozer-Jefferson trade. However, never count out a team with Jerry Sloan at the helm, and I love Deron Williams at the point. I think this is our main competition.

OKC is the media darling, but I think they are about to find out, as Portland did last year, that it is actually harder to make the step from a good team to a very good team than from a mediocre team to a good team. They’ve got talent, but no one is looking past them.

Portland has yet to see its RAMBO lineup. This seems like a very versatile group: if Nate will let them, they should be able to run. With Roy, Miller and Oden, they should be good in the half-court. Batum and Oden give them a defensive presence, and allegedly Roy has committed himself to improving his “d”.

I’m a little concerned about the bench from an offensive perspective: Bayless is really the only scorer there, unless Babbitt plays well enough to earn minutes. (I’m assuming Rudy is gone.) But defensively they should be solid with Matthews, Camby, Pendergraph & Cunningham. I rather suspect we won’t see a lot of 1st unit, 2nd unit nonsense this season. Instead, Nate will combine bench guys and starters throughout most of the game.

All other things being equal, I see the Blazers topping 55 wins this year, and I don’t see anyone else in the division doing that.

PG – obviously DW is better, but how much better than Andre plays this year could go a long ways towards who wins the division and a potential playoff series. If Andre can continue to play just a notch below the premier PGs, Blazers should be in good shape.

SG- Big Blazer advantage. Is their starter as good as our backup? Utah would have preferred WM over Bell. Dana has the injury history, of course Roy

Of the four teams, Oklahoma City is the only one who comes into the season without any major concerns. The Roster is basically the same, they added one big body in the draft, they are the NBA’s new darling. I see OKC improving on last year by three or four games.

The other three teams have big question marks. Portland with injuries, Utah with roster change, and Denver’s got all sorts of issues – the health of their coach, the distraction of Melo’s contract, Billup’s aging.

The nice thing is that Denver and Utah need to overcome their challenges just to stay even. If the Blazers stay healthy, they have a much bigger upside – even more than OKC.

Portland – 56 wins. Oden makes it through the year.
OKC – 53 wins. Continued improvement.
Utah – 49 wins. Just don’t like the Jefferson move, but Sloan will get them to over achieve
Denver – 48 wins. I see an implosion coming.

I feel like I don’t know this Portland team at all and I’m not sure they know themselves. We had issues meshing together at the start of last season and never really got going due to injuries. The whole season seemed pretty awkward with the Blazers never being consistent (how could they?). Also, I have no idea how Oden will play. I love the big guy, but he has a lot of question marks entering this season. So….IF Oden plays up to his defensive and rebounding potential, IF Joel comes back, IF Roy and Andre start the season on the same page….

The Blazers have the potential to win the division….or place 4th. I think there will be less then oh…say 3 games that separate Utah, Denver, OKC and Portland. My best guess with all the IFs working out:
Blazers
OKC
UTAH
Denver – And the team is exploded at the end of the season (or maybe during the season) with Melo being traded or just leaving at the end of the season.

Worst:

OKC (some internal development leads to a one or two win improvement)
Portland (injuries lead to status quo)
Denver (Melo stays but doesn’t mail it in)
Utah
Minnesota

Best:

Portland (60 wins = top seed in the West)
OKC
Utah
Denver (Melo is gone – ’nuff said)
Minnesota

Most likely:

Portland (55 – 60 wins = 1st or 2nd seed in the West)
OKC: (49-50 wins – 50 wins is harder than it looks and no one will be looking past OKC this year)
Utah (lost too much)
Denver (rebuilding year)
Minny (’nuff said)

Bottom line: NW Division stays strong at the top but loses a lot in the middle with the Denver and Utah situations.

Geographers finally stop David Stern long enough to make him look at a map and see that no other NW division team is really in the NW. A marginal case might be made for Salt Lake City, except when Alaska is included as part of the USA. It turns out only 5 states make up the Northwest of the USA: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. Somehow league offices got confused as in which states Minnesota, Oklahomoa City, Denver and Salt Lake City reside.

tom in in portland:
If portland is Healthy u think they can make the west finals i do becaues they got size for lakers and a Healthy Greg oden the sky is the limt so the lakers need to not sleep on them and the whole NBA
Yannis Koutroupis:
When healthy I’ll take the Lakers two big men over Portland’s every day of the week. It’s rare that both are healthy, but Oden’s problems surpass Bynum’s at this point and Drew has a higher ceiling. As good as Portland is, I see Utah, San Antonio, or Dallas giving the Lakers more trouble.

Read more NBA news and insight: http://www.hoopsworld.com/Chat.asp?CHAT_TOPICS_ID=1126#ixzz0xqNnFlt0

…If we are hit a little bit less hard by injuries this year.

I don’t think Denver will do very well with the differing issues with Anthony and J.R. Smith and with their top five players on expiring contracts.

I don’t think Oklahoma City will be as lucky next year as they were this year. I think Jefferson is better than Boozer for Utah, but not a better fit. I doubt that Hayward and Bell will fill Matthew’s and Korver’s shoes. Minnesota is a ways away.

That leaves us!

Nugs just hired Masai Ujiri.. Given 4 expiring contracts and a superstar who doesn’t want to play for you anymore, I expect Masai to be busy, and the Nugs to be too busy integrating new people to win enough games to contend… Without Melo, they will be easy picking for some team, if they make the payoffs… I see them taking one big step back this year, and be right back in 2 years.

Utah will find it hard to get a new team to jell early in the year, but I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs. They should also not win enough early (injuries, new players) to be able to contend….

OKC is the one to look out for. Need to take care of them at home, for sure. I predict whoever wins the game against them on April Fool’s Day will take the division… US!

I’m thinking a bit more radically in the W/L than most:

PDX 55-27
OKC 53-29
Utah 47-35
Den 46-36
Minn 19-63

Toughest division in the Association, even with Minny…

Of the three teams, turmoil and injuries has placed Denver at the bottom. If Oden can play 70 games or more, Blazers should be better than Utah. If not, Utah has the edge, even with their lack of depth. I love the Blazers, but from reading this thread, I have to say that there is way too much Homerism going on, expectations are unrealistic.