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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Let's talk SGs that will show up to camp.

There is no question that Brandon will start at the 2. There is talk that he may play some PG, but it is questionable how good of an idea that is and until it happens we have every reason to believe he'll get most of his minutes at the 2.

Wesley Matthews is clearly being paid to be the new backup SG. I'm excited to see what he can do. I think he'll be a clear upgrade at the position. There is a chance that he is a product of the Utah system, but his shooting and defensive skills should translate to any system. He's young enough to continue to develop his game. He should get the lion's share of the backup minutes at SG.

Jerryd played well enough in his opportunities at SG last season. He certainly got more run there than anybody expected due to Brandon's injuries and Rudy's ineffectiveness. While JB's offensive skills allow him to be reasonably effective at SG, every move the team has made since drafting JB has pointed to the team's desire that he earn his minutes at PG. I think that is a smart move. He will always struggle to defend bigger SGs and has a tougher time getting his shots off over taller non-PGs. Despite his limitations, Bayless certainly looks to be the guy who would get minutes in the case of injury or foul trouble to Roy or WM.

Which leads me to the real point of this post... Where does Elliott Williams fit on this team? The obvious answer is that he likely won't have a role this season, but there has to be some longer-term plan for him or why did we draft him? Does he fit on this team looking to the future? How do we help him develop so we are not looking at another Rudy situation in a couple of years where he has talent, but no real trade value or role on this team? It seems like Williams believes he has PG skills, but I haven't read much that suggests to me that the team or the "so-called experts" believe that to be in his NBA future. There has been a lot of talk that a non-traditional PG could fit well with Brandon Roy. Somebody who could defend the PG position and play off the ball on offense. It will be interesting to see if Elliott could fill that role for this team.

We have 3 rookies for 2010-11. We are in an enviable position of not really needing any significant contribution from any of them to reach the team's goals this season. It is interesting that the guy drafted in the 2nd round has received a lot more attention from BEdgers than the guy drafted with our 1st round pick. No doubt that is because we have seen Armon play since he was drafted. It also because we see a role for Armon. Unless more moves are made that change the PG position or he is sent to D-league, he will be the 3rd string PG. He'll get spot minutes this year and with an aging veteran starting PG have a chance to earn a more significant future role on the team. Babbitt looks to be the 3rd string SF and should get spot minutes with more opportunity as injuries and/or foul trouble create a larger role for him. Babbitt has one problem that Armon doesn't have which is that both players in front of him are either expected to have a long-term role on this team (Batum) or have a long-term contract (Matthews).

Elliott is buried on the depth chart even more than Babbitt. Nobody in front of Babbitt is a 2-time all-star and the indisputable team leader. Let's assume that the team makes JB earn his minutes at PG. That puts Elliott as the #3 SG. Can he climb from that role unless WM flops or Roy's injuries become a recurring dilemma? Should we give him an opportunity to see how he plays with Roy and defends the point? Seems like that might be the best way to give him an opportunity to have a real role with this team.

I thought I would attach a Youtube of Elliott playing against Kansas last season. He hits a big shot and misses a big shot in the last minute of the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcIJI4f5xbg

Who thinks Elliott is going to find a role on this team?



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Elliot

Roy/Matthews are all but guaranteed all the wing minutes Elliot would normally be seeing. I think it was more of a best available talent type of situation.

Moment of clarity

by 420Phenom on Aug 21, 2010 6:31 PM PDT reply actions  

when Williams was drafted, Matthews was an unknown

the Blazers may have planned to make the MLE offer to Wesley before the draft, but that outcome was in doubt until Utah decided not to match it

and the Rudy situation was in flux, there were trade offers before, during and after the draft.

So if Rudy was gone and Matthews (or someone like him) wasn’t signed, the Blazers would’ve been thin at backup 2-3, so the need to draft rookies like Babbitt and Williams was there. In hindsight, there doesn’t appear to be a role for Elliott, his fate hinges on Bayless’ future. (They’re both athletic combo guards who could develop into “sidekicks” for Roy, or perhaps role players). Williams is going to struggle to find PT just as Bayless did, during his rookie year. I suspect a couple of stints in the D-League are in order for AJ and EW, but those decisions will depend on the health of the guards who are above them on the depth chart.

There’s also a possibility that Elliot could be put into a deal at some point of the season. The Blazers could still use a veteran role player or two, and with assets like Koponen overseas, Cho may feel free to deal away an excess young guard, if the right deal comes along

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 21, 2010 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

D-league makes a lot of sense.

He isn’t likely to get floor time, or even be active, as a 4th string SG. We’d like to see him develop his skills. That is more likely to happen in Idaho than riding the pine in Portland. To have any trade value, scouts need to see him play. Let’s hope he wows us all in camp and earns some floor time, but realistically Idaho is the place.

by 52therim on Aug 21, 2010 11:03 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think this is exactly correct.

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Aug 21, 2010 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice analysis

The draft came before Mathews.

Acquiring Mathews is going to make it difficult to find minutes to develop either Williams or Babbitt. OTOH, Bayless was the Blazer’s fifth guard going into last season and he managed to earn 1300 minutes of PT.

by upper left corner on Aug 22, 2010 5:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Will Babbitt or Williams be active if the team roster doesn't change and everyone is healthy?

Pendy will only be active if one of the other bits is on the shelf. Williams will be inactive. That last inactive roster spot will either go to Rudy or Babbitt I would guess. If Rudy shows up we’ll have to keep him active. Otherwise, we could be accused of lying to him. We wouldn’t want that.

by 52therim on Aug 22, 2010 7:57 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Elliot at PG?

It’s about as likely as JB. EW averaged 4 assists per game at Memphis last year. He can shoot the 3, is longer than JB and just as athletic.

by ORDucktape on Aug 21, 2010 6:34 PM PDT reply actions  

He's a combo guard

I definitely like his size and athleticism on the defensive end if he plays point though.

by mas1983 on Aug 21, 2010 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Elliot was drafted as an investment asset for development purposes.

Even if we hadn’t gotten Matthews we would have gone looking with our MLE or with a trade for another backup 2/3 to play behind Roy and Batum. The backup SG job wouldn’t have just gone to rookie Williams.

If Roy or Matthews is injured, Bayless will probably get the the backup SG minutes, not Williams unless Williams unexpectedly just awes everyone at training camp and preseason.

There is some thought that Williams may be able to play PG, but that would be a longer term development effort. Most likely Williams hangs around for a year or two and gets traded. That could change if Matthews fails at the backup SF position. The Blazers aren’t going to pay Matthews $33M over 5 years just to backup Roy for 10-12 minutes a game. Matthews must also earn another 14-16 minutes a game backing up Batum. If it turns out he can’t play the backup SF spot, then we would look to trade him to a team that needs a SG in a year or so. That could make a role as a backup SG available for Williams next year and buy him some time to see if he could also play PG.

Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 21, 2010 7:46 PM PDT reply actions  

A lot of "ifs and buts" before Williams can even find any semblance of a role. Could this be the reason Cho isn't falling over himself to move Rudy for a late 1st.

3 year guaranteed contract… luxury tax means we’re paying a premium to develop these guys that may not find a significant role until they’re on another team. Is it possible that having Rudy suspended at home could be the best outcome for the Blazers? I don’t completely buy that, but I sure get why Cho isn’t jumping at the first draft pick he’s offered for Rudy.

by 52therim on Aug 21, 2010 11:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

nah, that's not it

Cho is big on using draft picks as cheap labor. Even with lux tax, rookie scale contracts are a fantastic bargain. Though, I would not be surprised to see a move to get under the lux tax since Portland is so close to it this year.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
@nathanbegley

by HurraKane212 on Aug 23, 2010 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

my problem with Matthews

I think he’s a good defender and 3 point shooter and a good young talent I just wonder if we wouldn’t have been better off offering Matt Barnes the deal we gave Matthews who isn’t quite as long and obviously lacks Barnes veteran savvy

by Biph on Aug 21, 2010 9:31 PM PDT reply actions  

arguable

I’d say there are two things:
1. Even in Orlando’s system Barnes wasn’t that great of a 3pt shooter – he’s closer to 30%.
2. Barnes is what, 29 or 30 now? He doesn’t fit our timeline; we wouldn’t want him around for 5 years, and he doesn’t really have any chance to improve.

Not to mention, I don’t know that Barnes can play backup 2. Versatility counts.

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Aug 21, 2010 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just moved back to Boise

So the more Blazers in the D-League the better!

by momomoses7 on Aug 22, 2010 12:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Seems like the Blazers view Williams as a combo guard

as is Bayless, which is what they want to play alongside of Roy. With Miller aging and down to two years on his contract, Bayless is in a make-or-break year for developing into the heir apparent. As many fans have noted, Bayless has made progress but is still no shoo-in for the role. So my guess is that Williams and Johnson were drafted to give Bayless competition, and to provide some insurance if he doesn’t blossom the desired role.

by jaywalker on Aug 22, 2010 6:02 AM PDT reply actions  

We'll see.

Bayless has never had the minutes at PG to develop there. As was pointed out a few weeks ago on another thread, he played 7 minutes at PG and 10 at SG last year, and until Blake was traded, was on the depth chart as the third team PG. And the year before, he was a rookie playing behind Blake and fighting with Sergio for 2nd team minutes – while picking up some occassional minutes at SG given Fernandez was also a rookie.

In point of fact, I don’t know that the fans, and perhaps even the coaches, now have the patience to develop anyone at any position anymore. The 55 win season changed the perspective on this team. This is the first year that Bayless will actually be the 2nd team PG. But the problem with that slot is that it takes playing time and years to develop, and that affects Bayless as well as Johnson and Williams. And right now, most of the talk is to find someone who is already proven, not try to develop our own talent anymore.

by Eben Calder on Aug 22, 2010 6:36 AM PDT reply actions  

Good point. Will we have the patience to allow any young player to develop?

Seems like we are hoping to luck into a star, catch lightning in a bottle. Anyone with just really good NBA talent may have a hard time getting much of an opportunity. Could Williams or Babbitt turn into another Jermaine O’Neill? Let’s hope the team has a plan to help these guys develop and not let the good ones get away.

by 52therim on Aug 22, 2010 8:11 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

you forgot RUDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDY!!!!!!!!

and matthews sucks but wiliams still wont get off teh bench with rudy playing 20 min a game

#88

by pipgras on Aug 22, 2010 2:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Would have loved to see Elliott during the summer league

it’s really hard to judge what/who/how much he brings to the table. I fear he might be wearing a suit on the 2nd row of the bench given the stack of guys in front of him.

by Knobby on Aug 22, 2010 5:33 PM PDT reply actions  

from what I've read williams is an NBA ready player

 I imagine the d-league will be in play, but I expect to see him on the floor with bayless and Mathews at times with mathews playing the three. I doubt he’ll be a rotation player but I can see them making some time for him to see what he has. That could be a fun group to watch in the open floor.

by skott75 on Aug 23, 2010 1:31 PM PDT reply actions  

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