Why the Blazers Will Do Well Part 2: Greg Oden*
by Dave on Aug 16, 2010 11:00 PM PDT
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PrintThis is a second part of an ongoing series detailing why the Portland Trail Blazers are likely to do well in the future and why some of the prominent worries and concerns about the team are mis-focused.
Today we're going to talk about the second reason the Blazers will do well, adding to the Brandon Roy essay from yesterday. And yes, I know that as soon as I mentioned the words "Greg Oden" half of our readers rolled their eyes and groaned. That asterisk up there is for you.
The common meaning of said asterisk when appended to Oden's name is "health permitting". Blazer fans are rightly concerned about Oden's durability, having seen him miss substantial portions of his first three seasons in the league. On any given day I'm worried about Oden's health as well. It'll be a long, long time before Portland fans watch him play without white knuckles clutching the remote. I'll confess right now: I fully expect Oden's career to end via injury. He's had too many things happen already. The body is cracked. Someday it's going to catch up to him. When that day comes I will sadly put Portland's championship hopes to bed. But that day isn't here yet and isn't likely to arrive for many years.
Consider even the worst-case injury scenarios: your Sam Bowies and your Bill Waltons to name a couple intimately associated with the Blazers. Bowie played in 511 games over 10 seasons. Walton played in 468 games over 10 years as well. Neither was everything hoped when drafted. The expectations on Bowie were too high to begin with and Walton's feet just ripped the foundation out of his boundless talent. But both played. While I am deeply concerned about Oden's health game-to-game, on average he's probably going to give the Blazers 4-5 good seasons, "good" defined (as with Walton and Bowie) by just playing...a minimal expectation.
The good news for Portland fans is even just playing, Oden is a transformational force. I've often repeated it: the "bust" people just don't understand that whatever the expectations might be of a #1 overall pick, the Blazers don't need Oden to be the next Patrick Ewing or Hakeem Olajuwon in order to succeed. That would have been amazing, but overkill given the rest of the talent on this team. Oden's offensive rebounding, defensive paint play, and size are elements Portland lacks otherwise. The Blazers won't judge Oden by Hall-of-Fame criteria. They will judge him by how well he fills the potholes in their highway to success. The Oden we've seen so far plays in rudimentary fashion at best and he's still plugging those gaps. You won't see a worse Oden out there in the future. If he can play at all the Blazers will win. If he can play well the Blazers have a great chance at dominating.
So much attention gets paid to Oden's physical struggles that his true potential Achilles' Heel gets overlooked. The mental and emotional aspects of the game and the league will be Oden's biggest bugaboos. After three years of substantial non-playing his connection to health, basketball, championship-level play, and teammates is fishing-line thin. The organization will have quite a task reeling in such a huge specimen on that fragile line. Greg is more used to rehabbing than playing. He's more used to trying to decide what movie to watch than watching film. Competition is absent, muscle memory faded, rhythm non-existent. How will he adjust to his renewed calling and the renewed expectations...expectations with which he was never comfortable in the first place? Can he commit himself to becoming an important piece of the puzzle on which all of the other pieces depend? He doesn't have to carry the team but you can't complete the picture without him. If Oden has gotten used to that other life, if three years mostly down have dampened his drive as well as his spirits, he becomes an enormous millstone around the Blazers' necks. That, not physical health, is the looming danger, the big asterisk.
As long as Greg Oden steps up to the challenge the Blazers will be more than happy to have him and more successful for his presence. What might have been doesn't matter. What will be still looks pretty decent at this point.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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BIG
GREG
"So I said, 'Supercollider?! I just met her!'" - Humorbot 5.0
by K-Dash on Aug 16, 2010 11:13 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It all depends on perspective.
National perspective will never be forgiving to Greg, simply because he was taken ahead of Durant, and unless he is exactly what he was cracked up to be, the potential is there for people to think about what could have been if Durant was a Blazer. If the blazers win a championship, debbie downers will always wonder if the Blazers could have won 3 or 4 with Durant.
The key to enjoying the hopeful future success of the blazers is eschewing the mentality I have described above, and being content with whatever Greg gives us, health and ability permitting. I will confess that I must work on this mentality as much as anybody, but I think I will get there. Hopefully a dose of playoff success is all we need to change our mentality, and enjoy whatever fruits we actually receive as opposed to longing for a do-over.
by premthegrem on Aug 16, 2010 11:13 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I'd give up or cut off one of my toes if it meant Greg Oden would stay healthy.
I’m dead serious.
I’m not sure I’d give up my ACL though. I may need that someday.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
lol rec
Portland could coast along with their superior talent and stay right with us. Now that Portland woke up, the hammer cometh down.
Bayless > Daffy Duck after 3 cans of rockstar
by Batumshakalaka on Aug 17, 2010 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions
The big toe is pretty important tho
I got turf toe in my right big toe, and it sucks. I’ve had it for a year and a half because I didn’t know it was a recurring problem. Must have reinjured it a dozen times playing basketball. Probably going to need surgery.
Portland could coast along with their superior talent and stay right with us. Now that Portland woke up, the hammer cometh down.
Bayless > Daffy Duck after 3 cans of rockstar
by Batumshakalaka on Aug 17, 2010 3:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Just think
If you didn’t HAVE a big toe, then there would be no turf toe. :)
by dfoz3 on Aug 17, 2010 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm thinking I'd go with my ring toe.
is that what it’s called? That’s the one I use least.
Yes! Yes! In the face!
Then where will you wear your toe ring
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
I hope it works....
I just cut off my toe. 3rd from the right on my left foot… so i should still have my balance.
Dont let me down Greg.
yup, loosing some blood hereeeeeee….
Welcome back Mr. Williams. Yes.
by RipCityBlaze on Aug 17, 2010 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm glad some people are still optimistic about him ...
Personally, I don’t have the stomach for it any more.
Its between your ears, rather than in your stomach.
Not allowing yourself to have rational expectations is a psychological defense mechanism. Given the nature of Greg’s injuries, there is no rational reason to believe that he will automatically be injured again and again.
Seven footers are by nature more inclined to injury than smaller players, and Greg for some unexplained reason be more inclined to injury, but as Dave said in his OP there is no reason to believe that he won’t have multiple healthy seasons.
by upper left corner on Aug 17, 2010 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions
"there is no reason to believe that he won’t have multiple healthy seasons"
Well, there’s one reason: He hasn’t had any yet.
His best season to date was the one where he only missed a quarter of the season with injuries.
So for a player who has yet to have a healthy season in three years (four if you include his one year of college), is it more rational to believe that all his injuries to this point have been unlucky flukes, or that the player has physical issues that make him more prone to sustain injuries than most other big men and that’s he’s likely to continue having health issues?
What has happened in the past is not determinative of the future. It’s unwise to assume it is. But it is predictive. I’d argue it’s more rational to use past history to inform future assumptions than to discount it. And I agree, “Not allowing yourself to have rational expectations is a psychological defense mechanism.”
I think your argument is based on a logical fallacy.
If I take an annual trip to a casino, and three years in a row I hit a sizable jackpot on a slot machine, it does not make me any more likely to hit a big jackpot if I continue to play in years four, five, and beyond.
You seem to be assuming causation when we only have correlation. Particularly given that each of his injuries was unrelated, and none of them involved permanent damage to ligaments or tendons, I just don’t see it.
by upper left corner on Aug 17, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
The jackpot analogy is even worse
Jackpots are completely known systems with regulated parameters. We fully understand the workings of a slot machine and hence the odds behind it, so it’s clearly blind luck in that case.
However, we understand relatively little of Greg’s physiology, or human physiology in general, at least compared to the slot machine, so there’s always the possibility that his “slot machine” is rigged, so to speak. Maybe his weight distribution adversely affects his knees, or his bones are just genetically more brittle than most, exacerbated by his size, or there’s something else happening that causes his body parts to more easily break down, we really just don’t know. Or maybe it’s just bad luck.
Imagine instead of going to a casino, you decided to go to a back alley to shoot dice with some unscrupulous individuals. You then roll snake eyes on each of your first three rolls. Sure, you might just be unlucky, but then again the dice might be loaded, it’s not like there are any gambling authorities regulating the game after all. Even though they look okay, can you really be sure?
I’m very optimistic with Greg, but that’s basically where we stand with him now, wondering whether the dice are loaded, so to speak.
#52
I’m very optimistic with Greg, but that’s basically where we stand with him now, wondering whether the dice are loaded, so to speak.
I think we are saying the same thing. There is no way of knowing if Greg’s run of injuries is an example of extraordinary “bad luck” or if there is some underlying physiological reason that is “causing” repeated injuries. My point is that all of the injuries have been unrelated and none is known to limit Greg going forward. Again, folks are assuming “causation” when all we have is “correlation” of a string of rare events.
The term “injury prone” gets thrown around a lot, but I’m not sure what it really means. If a guy has a bad back or bad knees that may cause chronic problems and it may mean that he is at higher risk of serious injury. Greg’s injuries don’t seem to fit into that kind of a pattern making it difficult, if not impossible, to know if he is a significantly greater risk moving forward.
I choose to keep my fingers crossed and hope Greg is seeing nutritionists and physiologists to try to take what ever steps he can to reduce the risk of future injury.
by upper left corner on Aug 18, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Shaq
has never had a complete season. Babe Ruth only had one complete season if I remember right and famously missed nearly one entire season. I suspect if one impartially inspected the playing time of most player’s one would see similar findings.
The media just picks on Portland. Bynum has a similar history but nobody gives LA crap. That’s because everyone knows the Lakers can buy the next great player. The media doesn’t think Portland, for all its positive attributes, could entice someone like LeBron James if it lost a potential superstar like Oden. Portland needs the draft to get superstars, not trades or free agency. The NBA likes that way because it’s marketing it’s product to a television audience and Portland doesn’t have the ability to draw an audience like LA or NY (it must kill Stern that NY sucks) or Chicago.
Pretty disingenuous
to compare Shaq’s first three seasons, when he played all but 4 possible games in the regular season (along with 36 playoff games) and Oden’s three years since being drafted, when he’s played roughly 1/3 of all possible games. Even Bynum, who’s injuries admittedly don’t get nearly as much pub as they may deserve, has played roughly double the number of games Oden has since Greg has been drafted.
Combined with his wrist injury in college, Greg has simply never been healthy since he’s been on the national stage. It’s not that people are biased against Portland or Greg, just that first impressions are hard to shake, and Greg hasn’t stayed healthy enough to give people reasons to think otherwise.
#52
What am I being disingenuous about?
The fact that all players get injured and miss games.
That fans may foist too much expectation onto a draftee.
That success does depend on having good players and being free from the grip of caprice.
Professional sports needs more money than gate receipts can supply. Television provides that extra income. Popularity drives what is a success on television. Since brand loyalty counts in sport’s as a marketing tool ( a person’s favorite player, etc, etc) having a popular player in a city and/or state with a large viewer ship means money in the bank. Therefore, League’s want the most popular players in the big markets so that viewer ship can be kept at a high level. This has got to make itself felt at the sport’s writers, player pundit level when it comes to commenting on players, teams and leagues. Do you really think that the Gasol deal would have gone down if he was coming to Portland?
This is 2010. Not 1975, not 1985. We’ve seen Antonio McDyess, Amare Stoudemire, Grant Hill, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, et al come back from devastating injuries. Can Oden (especially if we use the three headed monster and a slow pace to keep down the wear and tear)? I’m fascinated to see what happens.
"Parting ways is not the end of the world. Ultimately, it may not be a bad thing at all, but right now I know the emotions are pretty raw. But it doesn't serve anyone to bash the Trail Blazers or Paul. It is after all a business of tough decisions. So, for the sake of the players, coaches and everyone who believes in Trail Blazers basketball, let's turn the page, move on and keep our eye on the prize." -KP
by The Cactus Leaguer on Aug 16, 2010 11:24 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Unfortunately, my confidence in the works of Bobby Medina is at all-time low.
Unless we trade Rudy for Phoenix’s training staff, I am going to stay nervous about Oden’s health.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
a mcdyess type recovery, or one such as that of ilgaukas may be the best we can hope for
somewhere along the line the assumption that oden is injury prone has to become reality. 4 real seasons (inc college) and a major injury in all 4.
the only real hope is that it hasn’t been a tendon or ligament.
the one huge point that dave made in his article, is where is oden’s mindset now? basically he has been recuperating, watching movies or playing video games for 3 years. he has become detatched from basketball, and hopefully it all comes back quickly. that is not a sure thing.
G.O. is a bad bad man!
I’m so looking forward to seeing him play a full season in good health. ODEN SMASH.
by tiesque on Aug 16, 2010 11:24 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Greg needs to do more than fill in potholes
He needs to lay the road itself. Luckily he is more than capable of doing it. Where Brandon and Greg go, we follow.
Far too pessimistic a piece for me.
Dave, I don’t really see how this essay about how fragile and out of rhythm Greg Oden likely is supports your title " Share Why the Blazers Will Do Well Part 2"… Did I miss it?
His point is that Oden is a highly valuable asset as-is.
It’s not necessary for us to worry about whether Greg will attain his originally estimated potential or not, because we don’t need it for Greg to be part of a championship caliber squad. That’s how I read it anyway
Like the Whos down in Whoville they did it without boxes or ribbons or bows, they did without centers or posting down low. They won without All-Stars and Spaniards and Frenchmen. They won with old geezers and sub-par defense-men. They won playing rookies from deep off the benches. They won with their grit and their guts in the trenches. And some who observed them have been known to say that their hearts grew three sizes (at least!) on the way. One hopes with their poise and their passion now proven that once they are healthy their game will be groovin'. -- Dave
by conspirator5 on Aug 17, 2010 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions
yes
But the tone of the article is selling low on Greg.
by Odenrising on Aug 17, 2010 12:41 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Can't agree with "rudimentary"
The Oden we’ve seen so far plays in rudimentary fashion at best and he’s still plugging those gaps.
If Oden can maintain his production rate from 2009/2010 for a full season and 30 mpg – he is quite definitively greater than rudimentary. Rather exceptional, in fact.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
"Rudimentary" means "relatively undeveloped" or "being in the earliest stages of development"
It has nothing to do with #s or production and everything to do with skill. GO is such a beast that even with half an offensive move and the defensive footwork of a high school gym locker, he changes games. But his game remains rudimentary, however you slice it.
If Greg Oden can stay healthy and avoids foul trouble -- even though I blame the foul trouble issue ...
a lot on Nate McMillan and his SOS pressure defense, which relies on switching — then he can just be a low-post beast in the mold of Artis Gilmore and still thoroughly dominate the competition.
by AK1984 on Aug 17, 2010 1:20 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Couldn't agree more.
That’s what I like so much about Greg—even without much technique he’s a dominant force on both ends (on offense, largely because of his offensive rebounding and dunkativitude).
That’s also, of course, why he’s so crucial to any hope of contention we have.
artis gilmore is a great comment!!
if greg oden can give us 6-8 years of artis gilmore’s prime it would please me to no end. lot of folks don’t remember him cause he played in same era as lew alcindor (aka jabbar), bob lanier and the white terrorist (aka laimbeer).
I think Artis was earlier than LameBeer
We have players who play defense now, look out!
When Artis Gilmore was at the end of his career with the Boston Celtics, he was pitted ...
against the Detroit Pistons — which, of course, had Bill Laimbeer on its roster — during the 1988 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.
8 years of overlap
I must be getting old.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I can live with the idea that current Oden is rudimentary relative to his potential
but there is nothing basic about his effectiveness – and by extension – nothing basic about his talents and how he applies them. Skill? Sure – but not that rudimentary – or the production wouldn’t be there.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 17, 2010 6:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, agreed.
I think the point of contention is when a reader bristles at the term “rudimentary” and says “wait, GO’s awesome, so he can’t be ‘rudimentary.’”
But that’s a fallacy. He (clearly) can be both awesome and rudimentary: his moves are nil, but he can dunkify fools at a moment’s notice because he’s huge and fast and wants to dominate.
Boo ya, there you have it. A player with rudimentary skills and the uncoachable traits of size, strength, and desire. Imagine if Kwame Brown had all three of those?
the way that Oden sees the defense and passes out of the post is not rudimentary
he hit Andre on the move with perfect feeds for back door layins last fall. I’ve never seen LMA do this
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 17, 2010 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
His assist-to-turnover on the low blocks negates those few great passes--and then some--though. LMA at least holds on to the rock.
Turning it over at the rate that GO does is yet another indicator that his skills are rudimentary.
His passing shows not all skills are rudimentary
His turnovers are not due to inability to pass. He’s a mix of skills.
He’s a decent free throw shooter and a good passer. He can catch the ball. He has a soft touch. He has excellent timing on shot-blocking and good rebounding technique. He has a good sense for well the ball is going on offensive rebounds. Those are all “beyond rudimentary” skills.
He also fouls a lot, gets the ball stripped all the time, travels, commits offensive fouls, doesn’t always get set on screens, etc, etc. That supports the “rudimentary” argument, for sure.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Like Walton and Bowie
The desire to play at the highest level rarely leaves a great player. Nothing we have seen from Oden would suggest he deserves to have his commitment or drive questioned Dave. Do you think maybe you are going too far with your fears. It appears that Greg has recovered from a second significant knee inj. He rose very quickly to a high level after the firist and now @ 22 years of age his window for greatness is gone? I would disagree! Let’s hold judgement and see what this season brings.
All signs fromlast year say he will be great and that astrix can only reflect his health not his heart.
by Odenrising on Aug 16, 2010 11:54 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 2 recs
I would guess this has to do with the third leg incident
I like Greg’s personality but his perceived maturity took a big hit with that incident.
by Jacksonville on Aug 17, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
The "F" word
Actually, Oden’s greatest weakness so far is his apparent inability to STOP HACKING PEOPLE. Honestly, if I ran into him at the grocery store I’d grab my children and run for cover because nobody within 15 feet of those giant flailing sledghammers he’s got for arms stands a chance. If he can figure that out, he’ll probably be pretty good. The few rehab news we’ve received does offer at least a morsel of hope. Apparently, he’s lost “a lot” of weight, though he won’t get specific. If that’s true, thank god. Lighter means better foot speed, which means better defensive positioning (not to mention less stress on ligaments and joints). In about two months we’ll know a lot more.
by mannoname on Aug 17, 2010 12:25 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
doing sprints last week
Oden tweeted it himself. And you may not have noticed but his foul rate dropped last year despite not having blake, outlaw, and rudy on the floor with him for significant minutes
by Odenrising on Aug 17, 2010 12:38 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Man, a coach who truly comprehends how to coach a pro-style man-to-man defense would go a real ...
long way in fixing that. Suffice it to say, though, Nate McMillan’s love of switching and Bob Ociepka’s love of trapping aren’t the answer. Go get me Mike Fratello, please. Heck, guys like Brian Hill, Eric Musselman, and Tree Rollins can fill out his staff.
oops i meant despite having blake...
by Odenrising on Aug 17, 2010 12:40 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
But let's be honest here
How much muscle memory does a thundering dunk really require?
All day baby, all day!
Bayno said Greg had his moves and counter moves down pat, last fall
and Bill doesn’t anticipate that it will take Greg long to master them again, this fall
Dave is just playing this conservatively, so we can all build our expectations from that bedrock
healthy Oden = dominant center. That has not changed since ‘07. It’s just a matter of reps
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Alright...who pissed in Dave's cheerios?
Wow…what a downer. Show a little optimism there Dave. Yeah, filling in potholes is nice, but when Greg’s been on the floor he’s done a LOT more than fill in potholes. Prizzy is the pothole man on this squad….Greg…paves superhighways.
by CougzRule on Aug 17, 2010 1:10 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
no kidding
calling it “decent” is sandbagging it
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Aug 17, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was looking for more "the bright side" cheerleading.
I guess I misunderstood the theme, with all the Brandon glorification.
You could just as soon reverse the roles of Brandon and Oden, and consider the best possible Oden, and how Brandon could take half the season off with knee troubles, etc, with everybody else stepping up. I mean you could pick pretty pick much any player on the team and point out how we don’t really need him, assuming everyone else is A-OK.
I’m not afraid to say I am expecting Greg to go without any major injuries this season, and be highly effective. If I am wrong, I’ll be dissappointed, but I just don’t think buying into the “fragile Greg” mindset is necessary or enjoyable.
I’m just not one of the “Roy’s team” fans.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
Even Dave's allowed to an off day
Considering Oden’s impact is shown through the eye test rather then stats, he probably didn’t realize he was sounding negative on a whole. He was trying to say that even on a Worse case scenario, Oden’s going to be a force defensively, and a threat offensively even if he doesn’t fully live up to the “once in a generation” hype.
If I’d really change anything, it would be the last paragraph on his mental weakness. It’s really not something that can be helped. That which made him weak in his first couple years, will make him great in the future. And thats his desire to be great.
I put more blame on the other players, and to some extent the coach. Our playmakers should have been getting him more involved. It’s not really something a coach can do besides force it into the post. Miller, Roy, and Blake should have been working to get him easy looks, just feeding him in the post and waiting for him to do something isn’t good enough. it’s the same in lower levels of basketball, sometimes you just have to work to get a guy going before he can start doing things for himself.
Portland could coast along with their superior talent and stay right with us. Now that Portland woke up, the hammer cometh down.
Bayless > Daffy Duck after 3 cans of rockstar
Our playmakers should have been getting him more involved. It’s not really something a coach can do besides force it into the post. Miller, Roy, and Blake should have been working to get him easy looks
One of these things is not like the others
Don’t lump Andre in there with those other guys, Miller did more than any Blazer to make sure Greg had productive touches, last fall. Camby should also help feed the beast with high-low post-entry passes
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 17, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bayless hasn't played with Oden hardly at all, so don't throw him under the bus just yet.
by upper left corner on Aug 17, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
no sample size
So I’m not including Jerryd in the “big Greg freeze-out” of 2009! I hope Bayless will have the opportunity to feed Oden the ball near the basket on numerous occasions this season. I don’t see Rex being a great post-entry passer, but more of a penetrator who will draw the defender and dish it to #52 for an and 1.
And maybe they can run some PnR, if they get their non-verbal antennae tuned up
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I doubt Jerryd Bayless would purposely freeze out Greg Oden -- which may've been somewhat ...
the case with Brandon Roy, who’s got himself and LMA on his mind — however, I’m not too sure that #4’s skill set is built for getting the most of of big ol’ #52.
I’m not too sure that #4’s skill set is built for getting the most of of big ol’ #52.
If you are talking about current “skills,” your comment is probably fair. However, when you look at physical abilities and style of play, I think Bayless and Oden have the potential to be a very good fit.
Bayless has an explosive first step and excellent speed going to the hoop. GO has tremendous size and strength. Together, they should be able to run a devastating pick-and-roll and pick-and-slip. Bayless already runs a pretty effective pick and pop with both LMA and Cunningham. Greg is so big, his picks should be much more effective, I think it is mostly a matter of getting the timing down. Of course, the other variable is getting Nate to run a real a full set of P&R options rather than just the pick and pop.
I also think Greg stands to profit from Bayless ability to penetrate. Teams are going to have to pick their poison when it comes to Bayless and GO. If the guy covering GO stays home, teams are going to have a hard time stopping Bayless from getting to the rim. If they bring help to stop Bayless, there should be a lot of opportunities for Bayless to drop the ball off to Greg for the jam. We’ve seen Bayless make quite a few nice drop off passes. We just haven’t seen as many as most of us would like. Bayless spent a lot more minutes with Juwan and Pryz than with GO. Greg has much better hands. Hopefully, Nate will encourage Bayless to attempt more of those passes to Greg, and will be willing to live with a few TOs that will result.
I’m curious about your take. To me, they seem like a good stylistic fit. Of course, I don’t see Bayless as “inherently me first.” I see him as a guy who is used to being a dominant scorer who is trying to learn to pick his spots and trying to expand his limited repertoire as a playmaker.
by upper left corner on Aug 18, 2010 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Contract
Do you think it’d be better to try and sign Greg to an inexpensive extension now (not sure what inexpensive would be in the case) or wait until after the season when he’s a restricted free agent. Does the possible/probable lockout sway you in one way?
http://twitter.com/pdxmenonsports
by Derek @Portland Men on Sports on Aug 17, 2010 7:45 AM PDT reply actions
Its not an easy decision
thats for sure. But I trust Cho to make it better than I could.
best timing for this extension would be late October
after fall camp and preseason Greg’s mobility should be known
what isn’t known is the terms of the next CBA, I would think that both sides would be motivated to lock Oden up beforehand, but we’ll see
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If Greg comes in lighter, thinner and showing no loss of mobility.....
……I would offer three years at $10 ml with a team option for a 4th year.
$30 million guaranteed would look like a lot to Greg, but it would be a heck of a lot cheaper than matching a potential near max offer next summer if Greg has a great season.
by upper left corner on Aug 17, 2010 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
The worst thing would be to let Greg become a restricted free agent.
The history of the NBA has shown that the other teams will pay big time for size and potential. Hell, they’ll pay a good penny for just size (e.g. Joe Wolf). Some GM out there would probably offer some sort of “toxic offer” to Greg and dare the Blazers to match. I’d hate to be on the wrong end of that karma blowback.
yeah, Utah's GM
after Kirilenko’s contract comes off their books, they’ll want revenge served up cold to PDX
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We'd just match
No big deal. Paul Allen can afford front-loaded contracts — that’s why he keeps offering them to free agents.
If Greg is good enough to justify a toxic contract, we’re in great shape.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Better to tie him up for less
The more money we spend on GO, the less we have to spend on the rest of the role players and the more luxury tax the team will end up paying.
by upper left corner on Aug 18, 2010 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Oden* will be fine
We saw last season how well he could play before he got hurt. I think a bigger issue than Oden’s attitude will be how well his assets get incorporated into what the team is trying to do. They have spent so much time without him, all players will need to make some adjustments.
Mostly, I think Oden will do wonders for Aldridge’s game. No longer will LMA have to post up or pretend to care about rebounding. Then he can focus his energy on his real strengths: his mid-range game and running the floor. Honestly, with Oden rebounding, I could see the Blazers fast break points nearly doubling this year, if Nate will loosen the reins and let Miller go uptempo. Can you picture outlet passes to Nic Batum and Lamarcus Aldridge and Jerryd Bayless? Can you imagine Roy being able to take his guy one on one in the open court where there won’t be 2 other guys collapsing on him to knock him into the third row? Even Rudy would fit in better on the team.
If he satisfies the Big If, Oden is the guy that can propel the Blazers into the elite group. I actually have increasingly high hopes for the Blazers.
by hercher on Aug 17, 2010 7:59 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
There will always be big IF
Every game and every player will have a big IFattached. But, isn’t that true with every sport and every team and every game?
hg
Yes
but with GO’s history, the issue of injuries looms much larger. As Dave points out, many Blazer fans will watch him play with white knuckles, knowing that he can go and has gone down at any moment.
Andre Miller could get hurt, too. But he has always been a bit of an iron man, so we tend not to worry about it.
I worry about BRoy quite a bit.
We can overcome Greg’s injury as we have seen, we can overcome BRoy’s injuries , what we can’t overcome is both being down at the same time. LMA just can’t dominate a game yet. Maybe never.
With Camby, Joel and LMA to back up Greg, I think BRoy’s injury is more crippling to the Blazers unless Nic can become a facilitator.
hg
We can overcome Greg’s injury as we have seen
Depends on what the ultimate goal is
fearless controlled aggression
by sammymohawk on Aug 17, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was talking of just Greg's injury
The injury to Joel, Travis, Batum, Pendergraph, Rudy, Steve recovering from shoulder surgery, LMA’s ankle and of course BRoy’s injury was what hindered us last year.
I am saying, in my opinion if everybody bu Greg was 100% with the addition of Camby, we could have possibly gone the distance or at least have been a solid contender.
hg
I think Oden will do wonders for Aldridge’s game
If Greg is healthy then I suspect LMA will not be receiving 15 shots per game, like he has for the past 3 years. Whether he thinks this is “wonderful” remains to be seen. I want to see growth in other areas of LMA’s game, not for him to become a poor man’s Cliff Robinson or Rasheed Wallace
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Part of my theory
depends on the assumption that Nate will allow the players to go a little more uptempo. Consequently, I think the Blazers will take more shots overall. So possibly LMA will still get his 15 shots. I also believe he won’t be guarded quite as closely.
The injuries don't worry me the most right now.
It’s the lack of information about rehab and basketball activities, and information to indicate that Greg is interested in doing anything to improve his basketball skills. Can he shoot the ball until his arms fall off? Can he do low contact stuff to improve footwork? Can he improve his conditioning and agility? Can he watch film of himself and great centers to compare and improve? Are the Blazers requiring anything of him regarding basketball? I have always said he should have gone to Pete Newell’s Big Man Camp. If he can work on any of these things, has he? If not, and why?
I want to see some fire from Greg, what some call the “eye of the tiger.” I like the fact that he is personable and such, but you can be a nice guy and still be a beast on the court. I am frustrated by the kid gloves from the organization nd the lack of connection to the team. At least that’s what it looks like to me. The Blazers have invested a lot in Greg. it’s time for him to step up and give back, or show that he wants to. I am an Oden fan, but not without some reasonable expectations. Come on Greg, it’s G.O. time. I am pulling for you. Don’t make me regret it.
This isn't the Lakers,...
"It's not Show time. It's GO time!"
"War is Hell. Go to War!"
IMO, just before his injury he was doing as you requested
He was learning fast and making great strides. Hel will return to that and more. It was already said that they haven’t even scratched the surfice of Greg’s potential yet. I hope that is right.
hg
Not so fast Dave
the Blazers don’t need Oden to be the next Patrick Ewing or Hakeem Olajuwon in order to succeed. That would have been amazing, but overkill given the rest of the talent on this team
I understand the team has gotten much better since the Oden draft, and you’re absolutely right we don’t NEED Greg to be a HOF for our team to be successful. Still, I’d like to get what we paid for. If it’s just a presence you’re looking for Joel P. would have sufficed next to Durant, and so would any of the numerous players 6’11 or taller that have come out since we drafted Oden.
I agree that there are probably some productive, and healthy years left in Greg, but will he still be wearing a Blazer uniform when he experiences them? In my opinion he has to show it this season, or our team needs to move on. Don’t get me wrong, Greg looked very impressive for the short time that we saw him last season, but he isn’t near as good as he was advertised and we can’t wait forever. It’s make or break time for Mr. Oden.
You can't substitute Joel for Greg
If it’s just a presence you’re looking for Joel P. would have sufficed next to Durant
The big difference is that Joel has almost no offensive skill whatsoever. Any points you get from his are pure gravy. I expect Oden to be an offensive threat. He doesn’t have to score 25 ppg, but he needs to be a guy that the other team can’t leave alone.
I disagree.
Joel doesn’t prevent defenders from switching to penetrating wing men. Kevin Durant would have the same problem Roy does. You have to have a legitimate interior scorer. He doesn’t need to be your leading scorer, or even your 2nd option. But unless you have Michael Jordan on your team, you need a guy who can keep opposing centers honest so your guards and wing players can do their thing.
Joel is a terrific defender and a decent rebounder. He brings a great deal of toughness and heart to the table and doesn’t back down from anyone. But he remains a largely one dimensional player.
Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree
Joel doesn’t prevent defenders from switching to penetrating wing men. Kevin Durant would have the same problem Roy does
KD doesn’t have a dominant inside presence now and he doesn’t have any problems dropping 30 on fools. Plus, many of teams have won without dominant offensive centers. Besides, if KD had been drafted who knows who our center would be right now. Lastly, Joel would score a lot more if the guards on our team looked inside more as opposed to looking for their own shot. Joel is literally wide open when rolling to the hoop.
Bottom Line
Kevin Durant+ANY other center >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Greg Oden
But let us agree on what we disagree on...
Kevin Durant + any other center is better than Greg Oden? Perhaps. You are taking a star player plus another player and comparing him to someone with as yet unrealized potential to become a star.
Our disagreement is whether having Joel in is the same as having Greg in. It is not. The guards don’t look for Joel because he doesn’t have offensive skills. They do look for Oden, however, because he does have an impact offensively.
There is a difference between winning without a dominant center and winning without a center who at least is a presence at both ends of the court. Name a team since the Bulls’ that didn’t have a center who could score? I come up with the Pistons with Ben Wallace and the Celtics with Perkins. And both of those teams had Rasheed Wallace and other guys who could score in the post.
Apart with those teams, you have the Lakers with bynum, Spurs (Duncan), Heat (Shaq), and the Lakers again (3 times with Shaq. Now you are back to 1998. So 2 teams in 12 years won championships without an offensive center.
At the time of last year’s injury, Greg Oden wasn’t just a big body. He was a productive big body, a guy who was a presence that mattered at both ends of the floor. Joel is not that.
Right. Which is why my original statement of
Joel P. would have sufficed next to Durant
is what I thought we we’re arguing. I never said Joel is the same as Greg. You just kind of took half of my statement and turned it into whatever you wanted it to be.
I ignored the Durant part because
we don’t have Kevin Durant. I felt him to be irrelevant to the discussion. But we do have Brandon Roy. So just for grins and giggles, which combination would you rather have:
Roy + Oden or Durant + Przybilla?
I’d take the former group.
If we can get what we want along with Roy LMA and Joel
lets add Durant and CP3.
Are we going to be reminded of who we didn’t pick forever?
hg
No
because the debate everybody wants to have (and one which I really think is an invalid debate) is Oden v. Durant. They are apples and oranges.
King Mar and I were originally debating Oden v Przybilla, and he wanted to bring Durant into the mix. But remember, the Oden draft pick was based partly upon the personnel the Blazers already had on their roster. The thought was that they didn’t need Durant as much as they needed Oden, because they had Roy.
So again, I’ll pose: would you rather have Roy & Oden, or Durant & Przybilla? Because those were the options available on draft day.
I'll play along even though I disagree with most of what you said
Since the original debate was KD and Pryz or Oden. I’ll post it again. See:
Joel P. would have sufficed next to Durant,
Plus, I’m pretty sure Roy/Durant/Pryz was an option on draft day. Any way. I’ll take Durant and Pryz over Oden and Roy. Durant is just that good, and Oden doesn’t play. Even if Oden is healthy, I would still take Durant and Joel over Brandon and Oden. Sorry Portland.
???
A big loss. Yeah it’d be such a big loss. That’s why we’ve been able to win without Greg the last couple years cuz it’d be such a big loss not to have him. I’d take Kevin Durant by himself over Oden and Roy, and find four scrubs from the 24hr. fitness to play next to KD. He’s a superstar. Future MVP, and before long he’ll be the face of the entire NBA. I’d give up the whole team right now just for a chance to start over and rebuild around Kevin Durant.
Big Deal
With all that, it would still be a big loss. Because of BRoy and Durant. We can win without Greg and we can win without Durant. BTW, if Durant can do it all by himself why was we able to beat OKC without BRoy or Greg? If you think Durant and a bunch of scrubs can beat out everybody elses teams you are being blind to facts.
hg
The proof is in the puddin'
Hey, King Mar. Don’t get yourself all worked up. You can “I told you so” when, and if, Durant and the OKC boys win a Championship, or when Oden retires due to injury. Till then, this discussion is pretty hypothetical.
Urant has the early lead, but he has not crossed the finish line. My money is still on Roy and Oden.
by upper left corner on Aug 17, 2010 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I know what you meant
I am in your camp. I like Greg and BRoy, with LMA and Batum and Which ever PG we go with, we don’t need Durant. If the coach and the players get on the same page and plays with hunger there is not a single player or team that can make me regret what we have.
BTW, we had the same dispute about Jordon and Bowie. I felt then and I feel now that we made the right choice. I am sure Jordon and Clyde could have learned to play together but it sure would have gotten testy. Same as BRoy and KD, they could learn to play on the same team, but the fight would have been the same as with Dre and BRoy only 3 times greater. OMG, could you imagine Dre, BRoy and KD on the same team? With Camby and Batum we would rule the West, if they could play together. Camby and Batum could go have coffee while the other three fought to out do each other LOL.
hg
hmmm
So, you don’t think the same problems could arise with Greg and Brandon if GO ever turns out to be half as good as projected. Roy was already complaining about the number of touches Greg got last year. What happens if Greg turns into a 20+ point guy? You don’t think there’s gonna be a problem between Roy and Oden?
I have read many articles, but don't recall
BRoy complaining about Greg. BRoy complained about Dre so you will have to show me a link where he complained about Greg’s touches.
hg
I don't have a link
It’s pretty common knowledge. I’m sure some of fans on here can verify that B wasn’t happy about the offense when Greg was being involved. Something about being too slow. When Brandon is complaining about the offense being too slow, there’s a problem.
Do you really think we would even have Andre Miller if KD was here instead of Oden. I doubt it. Blake and Pryz would be perfect complimentary pieces on a team that featured Roy, LMA, and Durant.
Anyways, this post isn’t even about Durant over Oden. It’s about Oden and whether or not his presence on the court is enough to push us over the top. To me he needs to do more than just remain healthy.
the complaint in question was last fall, during preseason
on the plane back from a preseason game, Roy and LMA went up to talk to Nate about not being “option 1 and option 2” in the offense anymore. The coach was able to reassure them that nothing had changed regarding their usage. Shortly afterwards, Blake returned to the starting lineup at PG
Oden rarely received touches in good scoring position until Miller entered the game. It wasn’t like Greg wasn’t trying to get open, he just wasn’t receiving the ball with any regularity with the other starters on the floor
This situation is not settled, it just went away when Oden was hurt in December. Roy has made positive statements this summer about how “being the leader doesn’t mean getting your way all the time” but we haven’t heard anything from LMA about how he’s feeling, entering the new season and looking at potentially being something less than “option #2”
Stay tuned
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
So if Roy is truly unalbe to share with Greg
How can anyone say Roy and Durant would have worked? Last season wasn’t about Roy not wanting to bet GO the ball. It was about an ENTIRE team learing to play together. Same issue this year although to a lesser extent. There should be no changing the starting lineup back and forth. Oden.LMA, Batum, Roy and Dre will start opening night and by 10 games in we will be starting to roll.
O.R.
I sure hope so
Last fall, I was an advocate of the RAMBO lineup because Miller would do a better job re: getting Greg involved from the beginning of the game, before he picked up quick fouls and had to sit
As far as Durant goes, I’m on record that Kevin would’ve been stuck in a Rashard Lewis-like role if he had been drafted by Portland and coached by Nate. (So it’s probably in everyone’s best interests that he’s in OKC). I’d still rather have the dominant center, even if we haven’t seen much of #52 yet.
Scorers like Durant (Tracy McGrady, Iceman Gervin, Dominque Wilkins) win scoring titles, but rarely championships
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
One thing
Which I am not clear on, BRoy said while he was off with his hammy, he could see and got a grasp on how to play with Dre; he got injured again before I found out how, can you fill me in?
BRoy did mature one heck of a lot doing the year; do you think the same problem with Greg would be there now? Didn’t Nate at his famous meal tell BRoy, LMA, and Greg, if Greg wasn’t sleeping that they were going to have to learn to play together and there was no other choice? Or was Greg already injured by then?
I remembered BRoy was asking about the pecking order, I didn’t know it pertained to Greg’s touches.
hg
I think the problem was Nate was adjusting the offense during preseason
and Roy/LMA weren’t comfortable because they weren’t getting as many touches as they had in 2009, because the coaches were trying to integrate Miller and Oden (as well as Martell) into the lineup
That was a deep roster before Batum and Rudy were hurt. We talked all last summer about potential logjams at guard and wing. Nate told them all in fall camp that they’d have to make sacrifices, but Roy and LMA probably thought that he was talking about the other players?
I think Brandon has figured out that he needs to morph his game into more than a scorer who needs the ball in his hands. I do not know how LMA and Greg will do, but I just had an idea that I’m going to turn into a fanpost
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Reality check
Had the blazers drafted Durant, it would be clear by now that Roy is expendable. They could have traded Roy for just about any center in the league. Oden may evolve into a great player, sure, but let’s not pretend that – as of right now – the franchise is not worse off for having made that pick.
by mannoname on Aug 17, 2010 1:31 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Unlike every other person in the world and stuff
I love Greg Oden and I have faith in him. Everyone else in the world is a Greg Oden hater, but not me. Noooooooo, not me. Hate is for chumps. I love Greg Oden. USA USA USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
every time I read one of Dave's Oden posts
I can’t help but envision a day a few years down the line where someone will assemble a portfolio of these, starting from the day that Portland won the #1 pick and then cherry picking a few from each season. It’ll end up being a fascinating but gut-wrenching synopsis of our path along the gradient from sheer exuberance to guarded optimism to desperation to hopelessness.
I’m not necessarily saying that I believe that’s what will happen, just that every time I read one of these posts that is scratching and clawing to find a silver lining, it feels like it’s foreshadowing a gloomy road ahead. Funny that that is my reaction, since especially in this case the goal of the post was to make folks feel exactly the opposite way :)
Nothing would please me more than to see GO hold the Finals MVP trophy next year
I realize that it is probably asking way too much, but it would be like 1977 all over again. It was so great that the team came out of nowhere after all the “busting” and “bashing” heaped on Walton. It would be amazing if history repeated itself, at least in this aspect.
Obviously the more realistic notion is that the team gradually improves over the next two or three seasons. But I think it is more than a pipe dream. The Lakers lack depth and are one injury away from being very vulnerable. The “Big 3” in Miami have not had enough time to assemble their supporting cast. The boys in OKC still have a lot to learn. In some ways, this is the year.
We have Camby and Miller, now. We have Roy refocused and ready to assume a leadership role. Our young guys have had a little bit if seasoning, our old guys can still play.
I would love to see GO get an entire season free of injury. By January he would be rolling, and by April, he might be ready for something special. Again, I realize this is a low odds scenario, but wouldn’t it be sweet?
by upper left corner on Aug 17, 2010 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Reasonable...
I think that is a very well thought out and reasonable commentary on Greg Oden.
As a Blazer fan, last seasons Oden injury will have to become one of the saddest clips in my vault of blazer memories. It was magnified by the unexpected nature inwhich he went down, and further magnified by how well I thought he was playing right before the injury.
But instead of focusing on the injury, I try to remember how well he was playing before he went down. If Oden can get back to that level and of course, remain healthy, then we have no problems at Center.
My hope for next season is that becomes the reality, and I can have the pleasure of watching several Oden dunks that help crowd out the memory of watching him crumpled on the floor.
I still see the upcoming season as a season of definition. One of the things I look forward to watching and seeing is Greg Oden.
But I’m afraid a history of Walton, Bowie and now Oden leave me with my boldest optimism tempered.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Robot knees?
Paul Allen.
Evil Genius.
Robot Knees.
Geriatric Dunk Squad!
1/4/10 - Juwan Howard dunks on Chris Kaman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTkOqDgLb6s
3/7/10 - Andre Miller Tomahawk jams on the Denver Nuggets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-JVgm7F1QA
4/12/10 - Marcus Camby drops 30 and 13 on OKC to cement 50 wins. http://www.nba.com/blazers/media/camby_chant_041310.mp3
by Eat Politicians on Aug 17, 2010 9:47 AM PDT reply actions
Greg Oden is a nuisance player
There, I said it. Three years after coming into the league he hasn’t improved a bit. There have been too many idle days and lost practices. Just like you, I hope he turns it around this year to enjoy good health and improved basketball but it’s not in my best interest to live on hope. Leadership understands this and that’s why we got Marcus Camby and haven’t traded Joel Przybilla.
Also I think people are being far too generous in their appraisal of his skills and abilities. Just because he can muster up the energy to flash to the rim once a game doesn’t mean he can do it more. Kwame Brown can do the same once a game. What he needs to give is 15 minutes a night of shot blocking. If he can provide a similar intensity on defense as Joel or Marcus Camby we can count ourselves as fortunate. Even just a few minutes of good defense would help.
If you go back and review
the ten games or so prior to his injury, you will see that Oden was really coming into his own, and was becoming a legitimate force on the block at both ends of the court.
As for him being a nuisance player, there is some truth to that. Frankly, I believe this to be his make or break year. If Oden gets hurt and misses substantial time again, the Blazers may just have to cut their losses and let him go. If he makes it with another team, then so be it. He has to play 70+ games and be available to play big minutes throughout the playoffs this year to earn any kind of reasonable new contract.
Yes, he had a string of excellent play
I saw it and it was raw but excellent. He is unrefined and the lack of practice and playing time is sinking his boat. There is no conflict, it’s just about trying to see this situation objectively.
Greg Oden is an amazing defensive player
He pretty much shuts down the paint. I’ve been watching his games from last year.
A few big men give him trouble with their quickness (Nene comes to mind), but if he sheds a little weight and gets some measure of his foot speed back, I think even they will be passing out. If Greg is covering an opposing center, there’s no need to double team. He can come off his man (particularly the many non-scoring threats who anchor teams at the center position these days) and block shots and clog interior passing lanes.
He has not been particularly adept at managing his fouls. Smaller players in the NBA will jump into you, and though he got smarter (perhaps watching Joel?) about when to set up for the charge versus go for the block, he was still in foul trouble nearly every game he played last season (having 4-6 fouls in 16 of 20 games). He averaged less than half a game’s worth of minutes for the few games he did play before his season ending injury.
As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, this is not entirely his fault. Often Roy or Fernandez’s men beat them off the dribble and he fouls them trying to cut off the lane. It’s up to the coaching staff to set up the defense to avoid putting Greg in a position where he’s exposed when weak defenders are in single coverage. And Oden needs to be smarter about when to put pressure on the offensive player and when to let them go.
All that said, Greg is offensively very limited. His high shooting percentage is almost entirely the result of dunks. He has poor touch around the basket (contrast to Zach Randolph, for instance) and makes a surprisingly low percentage of his hooks and other shots from 3-5 feet from the hoop. This is one area in which he could use significant improvement.
you go back to the playoffs of the previous season with oden plaing yao
and greg really looked lost. yes, yao is a dominant offensive player when healthy but oden didnt seem to even slow him down
It seems Dave feels the Blazers can not just win but DOMINATE with an very good-but-not-superstar level Oden. I couldn’t disagree more. We’d need an allstar level Oden to be even fringe contenders and a superstar Oden to even entertain the thought of dominating (I here the Heat are putting together a pretty good team and those guys in LA aren’t bad).
I’m higher on Oden’s play (when he plays) than many folks, but as a natural pessimist I’m pretty dubious as to his chances of staying on the court long enough to give us what we need.
I could see the Blazers sneaking a title
with a very-good-not-great Oden, but it would probably take injuries to at least one key guy on one or more contenders (i.e. Wade or Pau missing the finals/WCF), but realistically, I just can’t see us surpassing the level of the mid-2000’s Mavs if that’s the case. We’d be a lock for homecourt in the first round and a perennial “contender”, but rarely super dominant or favorites.
#52
I'm not so sure.
If Batum develops the way many of us think he will, then I think you have a really, really good, versatile starting lineup. I think one of the things that a very good-but-not-superstar-great Oden does is free up Aldridge to do what he does best. He also takes a lot of pressure off of Roy, thus allowing Roy to take a few more jumpshots while Miller and Oden pound the rim.
But I also think much of it involves Nate being slightly more inventive with his offensive schemes, as well. He’s got to do more than call isolation plays and pick and roll/pop sets. You’ve got some pretty dynamic personnel on this roster.
I don't get this
If we had a good but not all-star Oden last year for the whole season, we’d have won 55 games. If we had a good but not all-star Oden, and Nic and Brandon actually healthy for 70 games, we’d have probably won 60.
We won 50 games last year with Nic out more than half the year, with Brandon either missing or hampered for about half the season, and with Greg out most of the year. We don’t need an allstar Oden to be fringe contenders. We need a competent and reasonably healthy Oden and reasonable luck on injuries on the rest of the roster to win 60 games and be at least fringe contenders.
If we’re reasonably healthy, probably only LA (possibly Dallas) can finish ahead of us in the West. And any team in the top 3 is at least a fringe contender.
I think people forget that just one year ago, we were one Steve Blake free throw against the Clippers from the #2 seed in the West. That was with only 60 games from Greg, too, and starting a very raw Nic all year. We’ll (thankfully) never again see the Nic Batum that started the first half of that season — the Nic we’ll see from here on out is so far beyond that Nic, and that alone is worth a few wins.
We’re so close to contention already. We don’t need much more. In fact, with a healthy Brandon and Nic and with Marcus at center backed up by Joel, without Greg at all, we’d be fringe contenders. We need a good Greg to win a title. An all-star Greg means we win 60+ games every year as long as we get 70+ games out of our key players.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I felt pretty good about Greg this season until I read Dave's post.
It’s not just the reminder that Greg’s health chart resembles the national economy that I find so depressing, it’s Dave’s low expectations for what Greg can be:
on average he’s probably going to give the Blazers 4-5 good seasons, “good” defined (as with Walton and Bowie) by just playing…
The Blazers won’t judge Oden by Hall-of-Fame criteria. They will judge him by how well he fills the potholes in their highway to success.
The mental and emotional aspects of the game and the league will be Oden’s biggest bugaboos.
What will be still looks pretty decent at this point.
Talk about damning with faint praise. I’m sure that wasn’t Dave’s intent. He’s just being realistic. Yet this is one of those moments where the needle of objective analysis has just popped my Blazer Fan balloon. I suddenly find myself thinking about ways the Blazers can cut their losses and somehow become title contenders without Greg.
Heh. Gotta love BE. An asterisk, but not even a mention
of the word “foul” for a guy who averages 6 fouls per 36. Talk of the difficulties of readjusting to playing, but not the headcase issues that have arisen over the past couple of seasons. Radical downscaling of expectations to somewhere significantly south of Pat Ewing (barely a top 40 player all time), as if all we need to win beaucoup titles is an Andrew Bogut.
by howlingfantods on Aug 17, 2010 11:35 AM PDT reply actions
The fouls are a non-issue in the long run
If he is healthy, it will improve. He’s only played 80 games. Most big men have trouble with fouls their first year or two.
Dave correctly identified the concerns — health and mindset. If those are ok, the fouls will sort themselves out. Maybe not this year, maybe not ever as fully as we would like. But if Greg is healthy, by two seasons from now he’ll be averaging four fouls per 36 or less. That may be high, but it will be low enough to keep him on the court enough to have a huge impact.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
That's what folks said starting last year
and he did improve, from 6.5 pfs/36 to 6 pfs/36. Still, you want your starting C to be well below 4 before you can count on any kind of sustained production from them.
We can get geeked out all we want from per minute stats like PER or WP48 or whatever, but no one contributes that much playing half a game. He doesn’t just need incremental improvement, he needs to improve radically, and I doubt that sitting around for almost another full season has helped out his timing, bbiq, reaction speed, smoothness on the court, etc.
by howlingfantods on Aug 18, 2010 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course sitting hasn't helped
But the fact he sat means that 6.5 vs. 6 is not indicative.
Look at what I said. If he’s healthy, by two seasons from now, he’ll be averaging four or less. The fact that he saw only marginal improvement over 20 games is not really relevant. I’m talking about 150 games.
He’s an intelligent person. He only needs to learn to eliminate a couple of mistakes a game to get that number down. I have no worries on the foul front.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
just because you're unconcerned
doesn’t mean it’s not cause for concern.
Hey, so here’s a list of players who averaged over 6 pfs/36 minutes in a season (you’ll see the same player listed multiple times).
What jumps out at me? These are some clumsy guys. The other thing that jumps out at me? The majority of these guys never really improved radically on the fouls/minute problem— it dogged most of these careers.
Even as a rookie, most players don’t foul the way Greg fouled. Even guys like Shaq, who I thought of as fouling like a lunatic his first couple of seasons didn’t come close to Greg’s rate. Greg’s type of performance isn’t indicative of rookie adjustment or inexperience or whatever. It’s a symptom of his lack of fluidity, body control. Clumsiness, in other words. Not a good sign from your franchise savior.
by howlingfantods on Aug 19, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the research
So 42 seasons. Dawkins contributes 4 of them, Schayes 4, Lister 5 of them. That’s pretty bad….
You are right that most don’t foul like Greg fouled, even as a rookie.
Most centers see a decline from their rookie season.
There are multiple factors that contributed to Greg’s high numbers that are not likely repeatable if he is healthy. In his rookie season, his weight was too high, and his conditioning poor. We had a pathetic defensive scheme which had him switching out on PGs, and he was clueless as to how to handle that.
Everyone knew when we drafted him that he was raw.
You said something important. These guys are clumsy guys. Greg isn’t, he’s athletic. His fouling was not primarily because of clumsiness, but other factors. Much of it is mental.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
A guy who injures himself getting up from his couch
and from landing from a 2 inch jump is pretty damn clumsy.
Athletic and clumsy aren’t antonyms. He’s athletic in the sense of doing great on sprints and high jumps, but he’s definitely a clumsy dude.
by howlingfantods on Aug 20, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
mmmmmm hmm
Radical downscaling of expectations
Is right.
It’s not something I can get on board with either. I understand we’re not as dependent on Greg’s success as we were a few years ago, but still, he’s a number 1 pick. The bar is supposed to be raised not lowered. Greg needs to stay healthy, yes, but he also needs to get better.
Opportunity costs. Nuff said
It is predicted that Greg has completely recovered and completely healed
Which means there is no injury from this day forward. So lets just say we start from scratch as if Greg was a Rookie and start teaching him all over agian with just a little knowledge under his belt. He can still learn greatness and help lots while he is learning.
Otherwise, what is the hurry?
hg
by BBK on Aug 17, 2010 12:00 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It's almost GO time !!!
Of course,
It’s also coming up on Year # 4 of the
COINCAST Blackout !!!
Great deal for Blazer Management !!
GO BLAZERS !!!
P.S. – Stay Healthy, Big Fella !!!
It's GO time !
Get ready
It’s going to be a stunning year. The Blazers have taken a lot of time to recreate Gregs body into one that can withstand the NBA rigors. He’ll be awkward and robotic for a few months but the transformation will be remarkable. The Blazers are going to be a suffocating defensive oriented team. GO, Nic, Wesley (CRUSHER) Matthews, Camby even Roy are gonna strangle teams in brutal homicidal ways. Rudy will rediscover himself and will contend for 6th moty. Lamarcus is going to torch the west while teams struggle with the fledgling monster haunting the boards. Write it down it’s the steamroller is coming!!!
by doomsdaymachine on Aug 17, 2010 12:38 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Greg was supposed to be cleared for 3-on-3 basketball by the middle of August
(then 5-on-5 by Sept 1). It’s August 17, is he playing 3-on-3 yet?
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2010 12:39 PM PDT reply actions
Oden be beasting
And feasting. And crushing. And killing. And all of us here will be happy. Like grandma’s poodle on your leg kind of happy. OK maybe not THAT happy, but we will be very very happy!
kneepads
Will management please implore Greg to wear kneepads. If everyone recalls he missed like 12 or so games because his knee got nailed by a brace. That injury was freak and shouldn’t be confused for injury prone. Same with his ankle getting rolled on.
The Man
Remember the Espn 30 for 30 about Reggie Miller and the Knicks? I found the part about Mark Jackson coming in and being the guy in Reggie’s ear all day long about how he is the man, how he’s going to do all these things, no one can stop him fascinating. I feel like Greg could use a guy like that, someone to boost his confidence/self-esteem, then we’ll see the monster unleashed.
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