Why the Blazers Will Do Well Part 1: Brandon Roy
by Dave on Aug 15, 2010 11:00 PM PDT
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PrintAfter last week's column urging Blazer fans not to worry too much--that the team was going to be fine despite no longer being the young, exciting dance partners on the national media block--I got a bunch of e-mail. Most folks agree that any serious worries are overblown, at least in the long-term perspective. But a few people justifiably wanted to know more of the whys and wherefores of my assessment, many brought up particular issues that they feel could get in the way of Portland's future success, and a couple others just plain think the Blazers are overblown and destined for mediocrity at best, probably worse. I thought I'd devote this week to a more in-depth look at why I think the Blazers are going to be just fine in the long-term.
When I sat down to formulate my list I couldn't start any other place than with Portland's superstar, Brandon Roy. And I'm not using that "superstar" designation lightly. I remember clearly an argument I had a couple of years ago with a Sacramento guy who was writing me on a semi-regular basis. He couldn't understand why in the world I considered Roy a present and future star when Kevin Martin was playing in the same conference. Martin was scoring 24 per game at the time (on a 17-win team, mind you). He had the moves, the skills, the flash, the volume. He was, my pen pal argued, the next Western Conference super-guard, the center of the Kings' core for years to come, completely and totally untouchable. With a nod to Martin's unquestionable scoring ability I opined that he was not that useful beyond that and didn't have the kind of steel backbone needed to champion a contending team. He was a very good player in a very bad lineup and was profiting thereby. Lo and behold, a couple years later the Kings get another potential super-guard and Martin is out the door.
That's not likely to happen to Brandon Roy.
Roy had what I consider his worst season in the pros last year relative to expectations. Injuries were a part of the story but adjustments also played a role. He had to negotiate touches with Andre Miller and compensate for a makeshift frontcourt. A lack of three-point shooting around him allowed opponents to guard him deeper out on the floor and pay less attention to his passing game, inhibiting his triple-threat shoot-dish-score mojo. The absence of explosion from heretofore-scary LaMarcus Aldridge also played its part, as teams keyed on Roy viciously. Under that pressure his game looked more sporadic, erratic. The team needed a Kobe Bryant attack to survive the onslaught. That isn't Roy's M.O. His game got partially lost in the gap between those needs and Brandon's comfort level. It was a hectic, fractured year right up until the end when a dejected #7 limped off the court after succumbing to the Suns.
Even with all that Roy scored 21.5, shot 47%, notched 4.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists, and remained the player most relied upon to pick the team up by its bootstraps and lift his teammates by his play. When Roy was out the Blazers missed far more than his scoring. He's not just the major player on this team, he IS this team. That's neither accidental nor because of a lack of talent surrounding him. In fact both talent and win totals have risen in the past couple seasons as Roy's teammates have matured. He's the heart of this team because of his ability and because his teammates and the coaching staff both recognize that he's up to the task and that their best hopes for success lie with him. Roy's production slipped this year and he was still great. Roy's court time and play were more sporadic than anyone is used to seeing and the team still won 50. Roy faced doubts from plenty of corners as the season fell apart and he still emerged as The Man. That's the kind of player you want as your leading scorer. That's the kind of endurance that, once fired in the kiln of adversity, hardens a great talent into a superstar.
That's not to imply Roy is fully there yet. His leadership needs to me more vocal, consistent, pronounced. One of the weak spots in bringing up a posse of young, talented players of the same vintage is that nobody learns to be the hard-case needed to whip the team into shape. Even players with natural talent and leadership ability, players who under normal circumstances would be clear captains of the ship, find their leadership drive inhibited by the level playing field. A veteran superstar can tell your last three classes of rookies to shut up and play right and not give a damn what they think. Prophets are not so respected in their home countries, or in this case among their home draft classes. That dynamic makes vocal leadership risks more daunting.
Fortunately nature takes care of this issue by making everybody get older. Already Roy finds himself the most senior of the young guys. Pretty soon the "of the young guys" designation will be removed as well. At that point his natural leadership position will be easier to assume. In a couple of seasons we should see him come to full flower in the locker room even as he has on the court. At that point the transformation will be complete and Portland will be ready to go.
Further definition of Roy's game and personality will also help the team refine the roster around him. We're drinking the last dregs of the custodial era, keeping the lineup firm and positions warm so the younger players can incubate. We're entering the bust-out era where this team's stars, Roy included, require wingmen more than babysitters. Players who don't fit that description are going to be jettisoned. Remaining players are going to be unleashed. With dress rehearsal behind and the curtain finally up you're going to see the game-winning-shot Brandon translated throughout the entire play instead of just the final seconds. This team is going to depend on Roy. Every time this team has depended on Roy in the past he has come through and exceeded expectations. This again is the superstar personality.
As with all such discussions, we have to keep in mind that this year is the first real test. (Last year would have been, but you know the story there.) Things seldom progress flawlessly in Year 1, especially since some of the players are still scrambling to get into costume as the curtain is rising. Don't judge just by what you see in December, 2010. Look at what's happening in April, 2013. The seeds of that success will germinate this year. The worst of the storm has probably passed. Now's the chance to see what the Blazers can do in the sunshine. You're going to like the look of Brandon in full bloom. That's Reason #1 not to worry.
More tomorrow.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I agree with most everything you said Dave, just dont agree that Roy's a superstar, he's our superstar yeah, but league wise no
by Blazingatrail24 on Aug 16, 2010 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions
So how many superstars are in the NBA?
I mean how many players would you take Over Roy Right now. I don’t think you can say there are more then 10 players that would be better than Roy. Lebron, Wade, Howard, for sure, Kobe is in decline. Cp3 maybe. Not Dirk. Not Carmelo. The media loves Durant but he is a mixed bag as of right now he is a push compared to Broy IMHO. Is Amare better? A case could be made for Deron Williams. He has played with some pretty good players in their prime in Utah and hasn’t pushed them over the top. No way would I take Bosh over Roy. Lots of glitzy stats on a team that couldn’t make the playoffs last year in the EAST! So if you look at the improvement of this team to 50 win status in Roy’s 4 years…How could he not be considered a superstar?
BTW
Rec! For Dave. I too love this approach and am looking forward to more!
I am also in that camp
It is time to go forward and look at what we have instead of crying about what we don’t have. Of course either way, what we have is all we have until further notice—-trades.
hg
Of those that you see as Super-Stars
How many of those are of the most popular type on the most popular team type. To get the kind of recognition from all the coaches and most of the players in the NBA tell me he is a SUPER-STAR of his peers not a MOST POPULAR of all the teams.
It is hard to pick super-stars from new teams because they don’t all have the same agenda, the same supporting cast, and the same coaches, but all those that have accomplished what BRoy have are considered Super-Stars, not most popular media players.
hg
Only because he's with Portland
It’s a small-market team, the national media don’t give Portland players as much exposure as major-market team members. They have to at least make the NBA Finals before Roy gets the full superstar treatment.
I know somebody who thinks Brandon Roy is a superstar...
"He and I were talking over All-Star break, and I told him I don’t know of any player outside of myself that has no weaknesses besides him. If you think about it, he can go left and pull up and shoot. He can go right and pull up and shoot. He can fade left shoulder, he can fade right shoulder. He can shoot the long ball. He can finish at the rim. He can shoot free throws. He has no weaknesses in his offensive game; so if that’s something he wants to do, he can easily do it." – Kobe Bryant
Like the Whos down in Whoville they did it without boxes or ribbons or bows, they did without centers or posting down low. They won without All-Stars and Spaniards and Frenchmen. They won with old geezers and sub-par defense-men. They won playing rookies from deep off the benches. They won with their grit and their guts in the trenches. And some who observed them have been known to say that their hearts grew three sizes (at least!) on the way. One hopes with their poise and their passion now proven that once they are healthy their game will be groovin'. -- Dave
by conspirator5 on Aug 16, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Kobe Lebron Wade Durant Anthony and maybe deron williams and chris paul are to me the only real superstars, i dont even think dwight howard is a star, its only like 5 of them in my mind
by Blazingatrail24 on Aug 16, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Kobe is a super star cause he is on the lakers
His game has really been on the decline and no one seems to notice.
I would put Lebron, Wade, Durant, Anthony, Deron Wiliams, and Roy on the list.
Hopefully Oden pretty soon
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Aug 16, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
By your definition, we don't really need a super star
Howard is easily as valuable as Wade if not more, and much more so than Durant, and laughably more so than Anthony.
LBJ is the only man in your list that’s clearly more valuable than Howard.
If you define superstar by fame, fine. That’s a good list. I’d prefer to define it by value.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
YES!
B-Roy in his prime. B-Roy entering his superstar years. B-Roy is the reason for the season.
Rich Rolled
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Aug 15, 2010 11:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Dave, I would just like to comment that your writing is always superb.
I have nothing left to say, you said it all. Roy is the man.
by gtbassett on Aug 15, 2010 11:41 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I like this theme ! rec
Looking forward to the Oden prospectus.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
kevin martin....
…. And brandon roy in the same sentence?
Lol.
Brandon is the man!
I am soooo ready for this season to start.
by 1ofthe7 on Aug 16, 2010 12:06 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Between the time Oden went down (early Dec) and his hamstring injury (mid Jan),
Roy had about the best month of his career. He was unconscious from midrange. This was when he went 15 or so games straight scoring 23 points or more.
It took him about a month into the season to get a rhythm going. Then he played MVP-caliber basketball till his hamstring injury. Then he played again for another month or so, but was erratic, and never played quite as consistently before injuring his knee in mid-April.
It seems like Roy really needs time to get a rhythm going and extended absences really knock him off his game. In 2008-2009 he only missed four games, and came back basically good as new.
I think this at least partially explains Roy’s struggles this season. But even in a struggling season Roy played better overall than during his rookie and sophomore years.
by mas1983 on Aug 16, 2010 12:06 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I think he's going to come out of the gate this year
in fine form.
If Luke Babbitt and Jerryd Bayless played a game of table tennis I'm not sure who would win but the ping pong ball would lose no matter what. - Ben 7/16/2010
I agree
I think that month-ish stretch of brilliance is the real Brandon Roy. And with him not taking this summer off, and presumably staying healthy, we’re going to get a lot more of that in the years to come.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I do agree with that analysis
IMO, he also took the summer off, gained bulk, and tried to play a different role as a 3 instead of a 2, not being the chief ball handler, and being confused to when to shoot, when to pass and when to concede the ball to role players, the disappointing lost of his friend Travis and playing with a new PG. No one said BRoy was perfect and that is what many wants.
Your analysis is great. I remember when he was having trouble with his hammy, he went up for that powerful dunk on the put back and that seemed like the turning point of his injury and the injury got worst. Even with that as you said he was still dynamic.
I am super charged with the fact that he is working over-time in the off season to get trim, slim and be a mean machine. I think that alone will make BRoy the super star of the season.
hg
Just a great article....
B ROY BOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But seriously, Roy is legit and has room to improve! The real deal. Brandon.
Welcome back Mr. Williams. Yes.
Here's my question, Dave
He had to negotiate touches with Andre Miller and compensate for a makeshift frontcourt. A lack of three-point shooting around him allowed opponents to guard him deeper out on the floor and pay less attention to his passing game, inhibiting his triple-threat shoot-dish-score mojo. The absence of explosion from heretofore-scary LaMarcus Aldridge also played its part, as teams keyed on Roy viciously. Under that pressure his game looked more sporadic, erratic.
Why are we sure this year will be any different?
I don’t see Brandon and Andre as really meshing yet. Most of the time, either Andre was taking over or Brandon was taking over. They are both reasonably effective at it, but they aren’t a great team on the floor.
Hopefully, we’ll have better 3 point shooting around Brandon this year, but it’s a “hopefully”. Andre still can’t shoot from 3.
LMA is going to be good again, but explosive? I hope to see more progress in his game, but I’m not really expecting a major explosion.
Playing next to a makeshift frontcourt? Well, we should have more quality up front for the bulk of the season this year, but that just sounds like more adjustments.
I see a lot of “ifs” as to whether we should really expect significantly more production from Brandon this year. Until we can find a way to generate some easy baskets, we’re going to be in a lot of close games, and Nate is going to play Brandon long minutes and be over-reliant on him offensively, likely leading to a repeat of overuse injuries.
A healthy Greg, integrated into the offense and playing 25-30 mpg, makes all of these problems better, and will make Brandon much more effective. But until that happens, teams will key on Brandon as much as ever, and until he has a PG and SF next to him who are major threats off the ball, they will be effective in closing him down.
Brandon Roy means this is a playoff team, and will continue to be one. But Brandon is not Kobe or LeBron, and until we develop another major threat, or develop real lock down defense, we’ll not be contenders.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Cho says we are a couple of players away from having a championship roster. Hopefully his #1 priority is replacing Miller.
I don’t see Brandon and Andre as really meshing yet. Most of the time, either Andre was taking over or Brandon was taking over. They are both reasonably effective at it, but they aren’t a great team on the floor.
That’s exactly right. Individually they have excellent skills, which is enough to beat bad teams. But to win against good teams they need to make each other better. Unfortunately they have negative synergy. Defenses play way off Miller to close the middle against Roy. That takes away Roy’s ability to drive, making him worse than he would be playing with an outside shooter. The defense played so far off Miller it embarrassed him into taking 2x the 3-pt shots per minute he took at Philly, and he shot only 20% vs 28% at Philly. So both players ended up worse playing together.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
We know Paul Allen wants Cho to get something done (whatever the priorities may be) sooner rather than later.
Paul Allen:
I think we can get moving even faster on some of the things we are trying to do … I was trying to lead those discussions …. But having a GM on the ground, making sure everything is firing on all cylinders, laying the ground work, coming up with ideas, I’m happy to inject my ideas, but things can move even faster than they have so I’m really excited about that.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Rich Cho, quoted this week
I’m not going to make a trade just to make a trade
It’s a process. And evaluation is part of that process. There may be better trade options in Feb, and if the team struggles in the first half of the season then “everyone” may be on the table to improve the roster.
But I’m rooting for the team to perform well during the first half of the season, and build towards playoff success with improved team defense, a massive frontline and a dynamic backcourt
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
*last week
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It's clearly way too early to be critical of Cho for not making a trade yet.
I’m simply pointing out that Paul Allen in his own words (which is significant because we rarely get to hear him speak directly about the team) apparently wants him to be aggressive and make things happen, and KP’s “let the cake bake” days would seem to be over. But obviously, neither Allen nor any Blazer fan, would want him to make a mistake because he moved in haste.
Further, Cho probably already knows where he would like to make changes. He doesn’t strike me as someone that will use a lot of GM-speak while answering questions (at least not in his early days as a rookie GM). The obvious new GM answer to the question about what the team needed would have been to avoid the question entirely by saying he needed time to talk to the coaches and evaluate the situation, etc. Instead, he had a prepared answer that he repeated over and over that the team needed one or two more pieces (he most recently used the phrase a couple more players) to have a championship roster. I don’t think he would have set that expectation unless he and Paul Allen had already agreed that is what he needed to do.
We will just have to wait and see if he can get anything done before camp or not. I just hope if he does something major, like replacing Miller with a new starting PG, that he can get that done before camp starts. I wouldn’t like to make that big of a change during the season.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I just hope if he does something major, like replacing Miller with a new starting PG, that he can get that done before camp starts. I wouldn’t like to make that big of a change during the season.
If the right deal “isn’t there” to acquire a new starting PG before the season, then Cho isn’t going to force it, regardless of what he and Allen discussed back in July. If the team is healthy but not playing that well during the 1st half of the season, then why should Rich hesitate to make a deal at the deadline to kick-start the 2nd half? But if they are playing well at midseason, then let it ride and see how far they can go (unless there’s a deal that’s too good to pass up that falls in his lap)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with all of that.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's the thing
I don’t think I’m stupid, but I don’t see two holes on this roster, unless Joel isn’t coming back.
Count me as unpersuaded yet about Matthews. But presumably, the Blazer braintrust isn’t unpersuaded, since they just went out of their way to acquire him. So where are the holes?
Center — Greg, Joel, Marcus, Jeff
PF — LMA, Marcus, Dante, Jeff
SF — Nic, Wesley, Dante, Babbitt
SG — Brandon, Wesley, Jerryd (I’m leaving Rudy out since he might be traded)
PG — Andre, Jerryd, Armon
If Wesley isn’t a championship piece, I’m not sure why we got him. If he is, then the only place you could even argue that we have holes is at PG. Since there are a lot of people who think Andre isn’t the right point for this team (or at least, for Nate ball), and a lot of people who think Jerryd isn’t part of the solution, I guess you could argue that we don’t have either of the PGs we need to be a championship team. But most people who don’t think Andre is the answer think Jerryd is, and vice versa.
So for me, I see one hole at the point. Depending on your PG philosophy, we need to replace either Andre or Jerryd. Might be nice to have a 3rd string PG until/if Armon gets seasoned/proves himself, but you don’t talk about needing a 3rd string anything as a championship piece.
So where’s the other hole, the other piece we need? Another PG, yes. But what else?
That makes me wonder if A) they know one of our centers isn’t going to be productive or B) he’s blowing smoke.
Why would he be blowing smoke? I see two possible reasons.
The first would be to take some of the heat out of the Rudy situation. It’s going to be hard to get value for Rudy if the only thing he needs to do is move Rudy. How do you get value in that situation, when other teams know you need to move a guy? But if the word gets out that you want to do more than one deal because there are several things you are trying to accomplish, then it changes the dynamic. Instead of being in a position of a distressed seller of an asset (Rudy), you are in a position of a motivated buyer of a couple of assets who also happens to have one asset you want to sell. Now, instead of saying, “They need to dump Rudy, what is the minimum we can give up for him?” the other guy is thinking, “They are in the market for something, what do we have that they want?” It changes the mindset.
The other reason to blow smoke? To motivate players. There are possibly guys who are looking at the roster and saying, “Well, we know they aren’t looking to replace Greg, or Brandon, or Andre, or Nic, or…. Is it me?”
A couple more players? If he’s a good poker player (and every GM should be), I don’t know how much weight we should put on that statement, especially when we look at the roster. I think we have one hole long term, at backup PG. I think Jerryd will be the starter long term. It may be that we filled the backup position in the draft this year. We may have a championship roster right now.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Cho might mean what he said
if he’s working on a five-year plan instead of a one- or two-year plan. Looking at the team from that perspective, and assuming that Camby and Miller will be gone within two years:
- Not sold yet on Bayless as the starter at PG.
- Roy at SG is a lock.
- Nic looks promising, but he’s nowhere near an elite player at SF and might never be.
- LaMarcus, ditto. He supposedly has the game we want at PF to play with Oden, but Cho might not feel that way — and LA did seem to plateau last season.
- Oden hasn’t shown he can get on the court (injuries) or stay on the court (fouls).
This is a team with one All-Star, period. Cho might simply feel that we need at least one more. He might also not be excluding the possibility that one of the above group besides Roy could become that missing piece.
Fortunately, they are both so good
that negative synergy still leaves us with a pretty good combination.
But it is indeed negative synergy, IMO. Both would be better playing next to a guard who is a major threat off-the-ball. Both typically take a little time to develop their scoring plays, which limits their off-the-ball effectiveness.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Seems like Miller + Rudy would be a good backcourt for some team
But Anyone + Roy > Miller + Rudy so I want to keep Roy.
If Luke Babbitt and Jerryd Bayless played a game of table tennis I'm not sure who would win but the ping pong ball would lose no matter what. - Ben 7/16/2010
This was Nate's dream
for last year. Miller + Rudy as the second unit backcourt.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Individually they have excellent skills, which is enough to beat bad teams. But to win against good teams they need to make each other better. Unfortunately they have negative synergy
Is it possible that it’s going to take more than 30-odd regular season games that this duo has actually started together to develop this synergy? And, if the Blazers were to make a trade for a new PG, Roy would have to start over with this player, and there would be the same potential growing pains and adjustment period
Every team struggles against better opposition, especially when their lineup has been in flux due to injuries. To point at the backcourt as the sole reason for the losses versus playoff-caliber teams is a limited way of dealing with the problem. If it is a problem. The team did show marked improvement during the second half of the season when Camby and Batum were inserted in the starting lineup, regardless of the schedule. Roy mentioned several times that he and Andre were getting used to playing together, then the knee injury came and the team’s production naturally fell due to Brandon’s incapacity
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
While they will probably continue to get somewhat better the more they play together,
I don’t think Brandon can produce his maximum contribution level unless he is playing with a PG that is at least an average or better outside shooting threat, and clearly that isn’t Miller. I don’t think the Blazers can win a championship unless Roy and Oden are playing at “super-star” levels, so therefore Miller needs to be replaced as soon as practical, IMO. It will take time for Brandon and the team to develop chemistry with any new PG, so the sooner we can get that PG the better.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think Brandon can produce his maximum contribution level unless he is playing with a PG that is at least an average or better outside shooting threat, and clearly that isn’t Miller. I don’t think the Blazers can win a championship unless Roy and Oden are playing at "super-star" levels, so therefore Miller needs to be replaced as soon as practical
And I observed that Oden performed at a more-efficient level with Andre (compared to any other Blazer guard) making sure that Greg received touches in scoring position, last Nov-Dec. So, what if Oden isn’t able to produce at a “super-star level” with this hypothetical better-shooting PG, as opposed to Miller? Would you change PGs again and keep playing starting lineup ping-pong at the 1?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
You saw Oden in 20 games with Miller. What makes you think he can't play just as well or better
with many other PGs? In addition, the Blazers haven’t even scratched the surface of how well Oden will eventually be playing with Roy, Batum, Camby, and LMA.
I see no reason to assume that Miller is the only PG in the league that can make Oden play well. Yet, that seems to be your reason to keep Miller even if he isn’t a good fit with Roy? I see no reason another PG can’t be a better fit with Roy and play just as well with Oden.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Not necessarily
One of the advantages the RAMBO lineup has is versatility.
Roy, Batum, and Aldridge can all shoot jumpers with reasonable consistency.
Roy, Miller, and Oden can all attack the rim very effectively.
Batum and Aldridge should both be able to thrive as slashers, especially Batum.
I fail to understand why there has to be one guy whose primary role is to stand out on the perimeter and catch and shoot 3’s. That individual becomes very easy to guard. This was the problem with Steve Blake. The current RAMBO lineup is great because everybody can do multiple things.
This is part of the reason why I just don’t understand why some people were so fixated on the PG position, when the big weakness was in the paint.
Oden will eventually fix the problem in the paint. If he doesn't we are doomed anyway.
I don’t see why people think that Miller is the only PG that can make Oden a great player. There isn’t any reason to believe that.
What does Miller bring to the RAMBO lineup? Miller’s #1 strength is posting up or attacking the rim, and drawing fouls. He’s also a great rebounder when he misses inside (he’s amazing at that). But Roy and Bayless can attack the rim and Oden will be working inside. Miller’s ability to take the ball inside and score was very valuable with Roy and Oden out last year. That was his greatest contribution, but it will less important this year.
Miller was supposed to be a great lob passer, but I don’t think he threw a lob pass to Rudy all year. How many to LMA? He threw a few to Oden, but not a large number. How many P&R’s did he run with LMA or Oden last year? Very, very few. I heard Miller would get the team running. How did that work out?
Millers biggest strength was supposed to be his ability as a playmaker to make everyone around him better. So ignoring how his 20% outside shooting adversely affected Roy’s game, how many assists did the master- playmaker get? He got 0.3 and 0.4 more assists per game than Steve Blake got in 2008-9, and 2007-8. Less than 1/2 assist per game more than a PG that was constantly criticized for his complete and utter lack of playmaking ability – a guy that could nothing but sit in the corner and drill 3’s at a 41% career rate.
If you think there were just less assists to get last year because of injuries, that isn’t so. The team got 1674 assists last year and 1667 assists in 2008-9.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You may well be right about this year not being different
This is further complicated by the integration of Greg Oden. But I think the team will figure out pretty quickly the specific ways Oden can help them and afterwards it won’t be an issue. As far as the Miller thing, I think they can play together. His weak spots and needs aren’t his fault any more than Roy’s are his. In certain ways those weak spots and needs don’t cover for each other. But it’s not a completely dire situation. Also, Miller won’t be Portland’s starting point guard for more than one season. The time frame for getting really good is longer than that for the Blazers.
—Dave
Thanks, Dave
First, I didn’t say this year won’t be different. I think it probably will be. I’m just a little more doubtful about it being different than you seemed to be.
Andre and Brandon are both good enough to play together. It isn’t that they can’t play together, when you have two guys that good they’ll play together and be better than most guard tandems. It’s that they don’t make each other better, really.
I guess you are a Bayless believer. You say Miller is done as our starter after this year, and Brandon is going to be dominant. That means we have someone who is going to come in and mesh with Brandon next year as the starting PG. I don’t know that Armon has the shooting to fill that role, so unless you know something about a deal we are going to swing this year, I presume you are expecting Bayless to step it up?
If so, I agree. And I think that, unlike Andre, Jerryd is going to be a major threat off the ball when Brandon is creating, either to pop in a shot or take a quick-hitting drive to the hoop and dunk in your face. And that’s my major reason for optimism, long term. I still think a scoring combo-guard who can defend the point is what we need next to Brandon, and that we have him.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Of course we do want to see some changes for the better in execution
I do believe that the coach could be rather insturmental in effecting such changes.
Not excited about the prospect of Nate back (to no surprise). Maybe the new assistants will be enough to push the players in the right direction. I remain hopeful.
Of course, good health alone is enough to take us to another level, big time.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
This is further complicated by the integration of Greg Oden. But I think the team will figure out pretty quickly the specific ways Oden can help them and afterwards it won’t be an issue.
As we saw last fall, Miller is essential to Greg’s integration. “What Brandon needs the most” in a PG should take a back seat to “what’s best for the entire lineup?” Roy can get his own regardless of who the PG is, and there is enough outside shooting at other positions of the floor to offset Andre. The goal should be tweaking the offense so ’Dre and Roy are productive, as well as Oden and LMA. Blaming Miller for “the problem” and hoping to replace him with another PG who may or may not be an improvement is taking the easy way out.
The RAMBO lineup has not started enough games together to be proclaimed a failure
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't think anyone reasonable
would “Blame Miller for the problem”. If you want to blame anyone, it’s KP for signing a guy whose game isn’t a perfect fit. But he was (by my figuring) the best we could get, and it wasn’t a bad acquisition at all — turned out to be a great one for us this last year, with all the injuries.
Rather than talk about blame, I’d rather just talk about what is — they aren’t the best fit in the world as a guard tandem.
That doesn’t mean there would be anything wrong with replacing him with another PG who is a better fit.
But I agree that the biggest thing we can do to improve this team is integrate Greg. I just hope we’ll get him the ball on the move, occasionally, when the defense isn’t set, rather than always just dumping it to him in the post so the refs can call offensive fouls on him.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Agree on all points.
Greg is a key. Without him we go nowhere. But he has to get his fouling in order, so we shouldn’t force too much of the offense on him until he can play 30 minutes (he’ll eventually play more). The important word is “force”. He will still be an offensive contributor even if we aren’t dumping the ball into the low post on nearly every possession.
But we can’t win a championship without Greg and Roy both playing at “super-star” levels. Hence we have to fix the PG situation to get the best out of Roy’s game as well as letting Oden develop. Miller isn’t the only PG in the league that can make Oden successful. Plenty of PG’s can run a P&R, make an entry pass, and throw lob passes. I expect Roy to develop a P&R with Oden as well, and Batum to be cutting to the basket off the give and go with Oden. The Blazers have played only 20 games with a truly healthy Greg Oden (he could hardly move during his first year back from MF). I expect Roy, Batum, Camby, and even LMA to develop some offensive game with Greg this year.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Plenty of PG’s can run a P&R, make an entry pass, and throw lob passes
Name the ones who are available, this offseason. They aren’t falling out of trees like ripe pears
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
and remember
they’ve also got to be good enough shooters to spread the floor for Brandon
Can you see why it may be awhile before Cho makes a deal for a PG upgrade? Might as well watch how Bayless improves, in the meantime
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with this
I hope Cho is looking, but in the meantime, we may already have the solution.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I agree that the biggest thing we can do to improve this team is integrate Greg. I just hope we’ll get him the ball on the move
This is why Hedo was offered his contract on 7-1-09 and (in part) why Andre was signed later, that month. If you trade Miller, then you’ve lost this playmaker/facilitator for #52. Who is going to replace that ability, on the existing roster? Not Roy. Batum and Camby are candidates, and so is the would-be incoming PG. But not all hot-shooting PGs are good lob-post-entry passers. (Aaron Brooks isn’t, for example.)
So be careful what you wish for, and choose your Blazer PGotF carefully, rather than looking wistfully at the grass on the other side of the fence. That’s my take
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Right, I don't want a guy who's too much of a pure point guard (e.g., Andre Miller) or a ...
guy who’s too much of a mindless chucker (e.g., Aaron Brooks). My pie in the sky pipe dream is to acquire a low usage and defensive-minded off guard such as Kirk Hinrich, acquire a defensive stopper at the 3 like Andre Iguodala — who also plays well off the ball on offense — to complement Brandon Roy, and make sure LaMarcus Aldridge knows full well that he’s taking a backseat to Greg Oden.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=25me4qh
I’d also prefer to get a younger floor spreading off guard such as Mike Conley, Jr. to backup Hinrich, with Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Jeff Pendergraph heading out in such a deal — although a third team like the New York Knicks would be needed to accommodate Fernandez — and, when it’s all said and done, finally see a team constructed wherein the players gel together well stylistically.
The final piece to that would be Nate McMillan getting fired and replaced with Jeff Van Gundy — or maybe Mike Fratello, who deserves one more shot — although my fear is that Rich Cho might go after someone with former Sonic ties like Dwane Casey or Terry Stotts.
Who would replace Miller?
Obviously, the guy you trade him for.
You don’t trade Miller away unless you get an effective PG, or unless you are convinced the guys behind him are ready to be effective PGs.
I didn’t see Andre facilitating for Greg much in the limited time they had together last year. I did see him cutting to the hoop for some nice feeds from Greg on occasion. I have high hopes they will mesh together well this year.
But I don’t believe Andre is the only way to integrate Greg effectively.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I agree.
The RAMBO lineup has not started enough games together to be proclaimed a failure
In fact, I don’t believe the RAMBO lineup has started a single game, has it? Assuming they remain healthy (not a safe assumption), there will likely be an adjustment. Hopefully, Nate will focus much of the preseason on making that adjustment, unlike last year when he tried a different starting lineup every game.
My concerns about Roy are really two-fold:
1. Can he stay healthy? He has shown a tendency to get hurt. Much of that is due to his explosive playing style and the fact that the Blazers really haven’t had another legitimate scoring threat. Oden can help that by taking some of the pressure in the paint.
2. Can he really commit to playing defense? I read an interview in the offseason in which he all but admitted that he and Lamarcus have not played defense to the best of their capabilities, and that they need to assert themselves more at the end of the court. Again, I believe Oden can help. By taking pressure off of those two at the offensive end, they can exert more energy at the defensive end. He also can allow guys to play up on their man more, knowing that if they get beat, there is a shot blocker behind them.
With all that said,
I forgot to mention that I agree with all of the positive points Dave makes in his column. He just didn’t mention these caveats.
I agree with both of those concerns
Well stated.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Agree about Roy.
He needs to play at a “super-star” level for us to be a contender. That means he has to stay healthy and play tough defense more often. I think we have seen him play good defense when he makes the effort, so we know it’s possible.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it's important to note that when Roy was at his best (December and January) was when Miller was starting and playing 30+ mpg.
They’re both good basketball players, and both of their strengths can be used – it just means Roy can’t play as if Miller is Blake. I’m not worried.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
by austinpwnz on Aug 16, 2010 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
But the “collapse on Roy” factor is going to be present whenever there is no one to spread the floor. It’s no coincidence that for part of that time Martell was bombing in 3s.
It’s not that they can’t play together, it’s that their strengths aren’t a great fit for each other, and thus they don’t make each other better. When you are good enough, that works anyway. But it does hinder Brandon from being at his very best.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I agree on the BRoy, Dre problem
They are both great with the ball, but not great playing off each other. I thought Dre made the team look worst instead of better and that confused me for a while. It was neither made the other better, but made both of them look worst.
IMO, Nate’s original idea of making Dre the controlling factor of the second unit with Rudy to make the threes would have been the answer, but that didn’t happen because of injury to Batum, Travis and Rudy, and that is where the make shift front line came from.
I disagree with BRoy not being like Kobe or LeBron. As Dave said, he had one of the worst years as an NBA player you could have, instead of crying over spelled milk he has taken the initiative to make himself more powerful and to be a better team player by improving his ball handling, passing and shooting, and getting in better shape by increasing his endurance. That to me is all that a Super Star can do.
Kobe and LeBron are not as perfect as the media makes them to be. They both work their butts off to be the best they can be. The rest is the hype of the media and the vote of the fans. In actuality, what is the big difference of the three? All three had bad moments because of injury, all three lead their teams, all three was the franchise players and all three has the championship in mind. Of the three Kobe and BRoy are more of the team players, but they both take the game over when needed. So what is the big difference outside the fan vote and the media?
hg
by BBK on Aug 16, 2010 3:31 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
wow, I think your writing made your comment worst to read…
but if its not McMillan, its Miller, or someone else. I happen to think the reason we won 50 games was because we had Miller at the helm. Are there better point guards? sure. Would some of them make Broy look better? yea probably. Would some of them make him look worse? definitly.
But to point fingers at Dre is silly. He did a ton for the team. How about blaming the way people played Broy on the bigger issue… NO GREG ODEN, no PRYZBILLA…
we had Juwan Howard (and not to say he didn’t do good things but he is not Oden or Pryz)
I think that the Miller sucks, McMillan sucks posts need to wait until after this season. If the team is healthy we will see exactly how it is all coming together…
and you will then have a right to point fingers at the correct scape goat
Oden
LaMarcus
McMillan
Miller
and I listed those in the order I think that we will need to point fingers at
Why the personal attack?
Deal with substance.
Sure, Miller helped us to 50 wins. He is a great PG to have around when Brandon is down — we can still be very competitive with our superstar out when we have Andre. So he was a major factor, perhaps the most important one, in getting us to 50. So what? That says nothing about how well his game and Brandon’s fit together.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Miller gets too much credit
The team didn’t really start winning until Blake made the sacrifice to move to SG and then he really helped by sacrificing and trading himself for Camby. Since the slow start of the season was all Miller’s fault, it’s just wrong to give him credit for the 50 wins.
Steve Blake never really played the 2, for he was either a 1 or a 3 on offense. In those ...
three-guard lineups with Blake, Brandon Roy, and Andre Miller, Blake was a 3 on offense and 1 on defense, Roy was a 2 on offense and 3 on defense, and Miller was a 1 on offense and a 2 on defense. Even when it was Blake and Miller in the backcourt with Martell Webster at the 3, Blake still played as an off guard versus being a some high usage shooting guard.
No one is saying Miller sucks. Virtually everyone acknowledges the impressive skills he has and the contribution
he made when Roy was down last year. The question is whether he fits with Roy or not? We aren’t going to contend for a championship unless Roy can play to his strengths. Miller’s poor outside shooting makes it more difficult for Roy to attack because Miller’s man sags off him so far to help out against Roy. Which in turn just encourages Miller to shoot more 3’s, the one skill that Miller is awful at. Miller shot almost exactly twice as many 3’s per minute last year as he did in Philly. It was comical, but sad, at times last year to see teams daring him to shoot that shot.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course, LOL
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
No one is saying they like watching Andre shoot threes
but if he’s thrown a FB pass with only 2-3 seconds to go on the shot-clock, that’s an execution-teammate issue as much as it’s a Miller problem
if it’s a late game ISO with Roy at the top of the key, Nate should switch Dre out and add another floor-speader. But for the other 46 minutes of the game? Let’s find other ways to move bodies and score that don’t involve Miller needing to stand in a corner.
The staff has new assistant coaches, it can be done
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Maybe they didn't have the time to jell
I just don’t think it should be one or the other, and I don’t think that was all Dre’s fault. I am in the camp that this is BRoy’s team and Dre needed to adjust to BRoy not the other way around.
BRoy needs to improve his team play as well, so I am not pointing fingers.
I am sorry my writing makes my comments worst to read.
hg
The big difference
is that those two guys can carry their team for a half, with absolutely everything going through them, and if they are hot, there is just nothing you can do.
Brandon can be hindered if you scheme for him properly. He’s not as dominant. He will score more efficiently when he’s going well, but not with the kind of volume they can generate.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
not sure about this
Roy was dominate in the Houston series – against a very tough defense and with very little help.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 16, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Our offense was very stagnant
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I'm a little more optimistic about Brandon and Dre
but pretty spot on here, jscot. Realistically, I doubt we’ll ever see Brandon much better than he was in 2008/2009, and we’ll need some other guys to step up to become a team that gets past the second round or so of the playoffs.
#52
If they were going to have 4-5 years together
I think they would meld into a great combination. Perhaps it can happen quickly. But they simply aren’t naturally a great fit together.
If Greg becomes a perennial all-star, we’ll be contenders. Also, if he becomes a defensive force and Jerryd becomes a major contributor for us, or Nic becomes an all-star. But something has to happen.
Brandon has significant room for improvement defensively, and there’s no reason that can’t happen.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
You may be right
BRoy may not be better then he was in 2008-2009, but I hope you are wrong. I think his maturity and wisdom will make him better at making decisions. I do not know if his skills will be better
hg
Most of the time, either Andre was taking over or Brandon was taking over. They are both reasonably effective at it, but they aren’t a great team on the floor.
This is not necessarily a “bad” thing. Let’s say the opponent has a small PG. He’s going to have to guard Brandon, or Andre. The advantage for Portland is to clear a side and let Roy or Miller “take over” and run the offense through this mismatch
If the opposing coach puts the smaller guy on Nic (Nash, etc) then Batum is going to have to develop back-to-the-basket skills. This was discussed by Nate during Frenchy’s exit interview
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Why it's a "bad" thing
Generally, both Brandon and Andre develop their scoring plays slowly. They aren’t generally quick hitters. So whichever one doesn’t have the ball doesn’t demand the kind of defensive attention that is needed to make the guy with the ball especially dangerous.
Now, Brandon can spot up for 3, which would make Andre’s post up plays more dangerous, but we don’t really want Brandon to just be a 3 point spot up guy.
If either of them were a quick-hitting scorer, then he would be an off-the-ball threat that could punish you for cheating to help out on the guy with the ball. To get top effectiveness out of your scorers, you’ve got to be able and ready to punish the other team for helping on them. Both of these guys can do that, but they rarely do — it’s just not their style.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
A fair summary of Miller's and Roy's style
Roy is a bit more deliberate than Miller. One offensive skill I’d like to see Brandon work on is his ability to catch the ball on the move and quickly make a move of his own. In essence, he needs to develop a little bit of a slasher style — it is a skill that guys like Kobe have. It isn’t the bulk of their game, but it is just one more skill that makes them dangerous.
It also wouldn’t hurt to have Brandon spot up for 3’s a little more. Again, it makes him more dangerous. ‘Dre could attack, then kick the ball out or the Blazers could swing it to Brandon on the perimeter. In a faster flowing offense than the Blazers usually employ, this creates serious problems for Brandon’s defender: does he press him on the perimeter to stop the three, and risk having him drive on him, or does he play back to stop the drive, thus essentially giving up the three?
As an aside, when Jordan torched the Blazers in the final for all those threes, it was for exactly that reason. The ref, who notoriously had a grudge against Buck Williams, to the point even the national TV announcers mentioned it, called 3 ticky-tack fouls against Buck. This deprived the Blazers of their best interior defender, and forced Clyde to respect Jordan’s drive more.
Good Call
From what I have read, BRoy is doing just exactly what you described. He is practicing playing off the ball which includes catch and shot catch and drive and set up for the three. Along with practicing PG moves.
Anyway that is what I understand from his interview at the summer league.
hg
‘Dre could attack, then kick the ball out or the Blazers could swing it to Brandon on the perimeter. In a faster flowing offense than the Blazers usually employ, this creates serious problems for Brandon’s defender
That made me think that anyone who favors a more-uptempo Blazer offense should not be advocating that Miller leave and the team return to Roy and a Blake-like spot up PG.
Andre can run and advance the ball up the court with kick-ahead passes. I saw plenty of that last year. Everyone crticizes Roy for being a slow poke and not pushing the ball? Well, let’s play some defense and outlet the ball to Miller and then see how slowly Roy brings up the rear as a trailer. I suspect Brandon’s not going to lag behind for long if the transition offense is already initiated before he crosses midcourt
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Well, I advocate playing a more deliberate (i.e., slow-paced) and power-oriented brand ...
of basketball to benefit the franchise cornerstones, Greg Oden and Brandon Roy, which may very well put me in the minority. So yeah, my issue with Nate McMillan isn’t pace; rather, it’s the high-low zone offense as the base scheme — which relies way too much on ball reversal over off ball movement, as well as the garbage pick-and-pop over the more efficient pick-and-roll — and the overemphasizing 1-4 iso sets during crunch-time situations that irk me.
Sure, down-tempo zone offenses work at the amateur level in college — with Bob Huggins at West Virginia being a relatively fine example: http://www.championshipproductions.com/cgi-bin/champ/p/Basketball/Bob-Huggins-The-Dive-Fill-Zone-Offense_BD-02815.html?id=FqUcFrufAaRi — yet, in the NBA, playbooks should be filled mostly with pro-style pick-and-roll sets on offense and, of course, stauch man-to-man defense.
False dichotomy, really
It isn’t “Andre or Steve”. There are other options.
Personally, I hope Jerryd knocks down 3s at 38% or better this year, continues to improve on defense, and takes Andre’s starting job by midseason if not sooner.
You already can’t ignore Jerryd when Brandon has the ball, because of the threat he’ll go to the hoop. If he can add the threat of consistently knocking down 3s, then he’s much more offensively than Blake. And Jerryd does not love a slow down game.
I wouldn’t mind the slow tempo so much if we were actually moving on offense. It’s when you have two or three guys standing around, their defenders don’t have to work. I believe, especially when you have a deep team, that you should make every defender work every second of every possession. There’s no reason to let them rest on defense.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
It isn’t "Andre or Steve". There are other options.
It is a dichotomy, and a very real one
Bedgers want to upgrade Miller. They want a PG like Blake who can play “off” of Roy and help him reach his full superstar potential. Well now, how many PGs are available who can post-entry pass to Oden with the creativity of Andre and spread the floor like Steve?
Chris Paul and … ?
Even the guy I like (Parker) doesn’t fulfill the 3pt shooting requirement. For those who want to replace ‘Dre, name some names. I have a feeling that Miller’s “competing” against the ghost of CP3 and will never measure up to that lofty standard. Most PGs will have one or two “holes” in their game—with CP3 it’s knee health and a hypothetical long term commitment to PDX
Look at what we’ve got at PG (Miller/Bayless) that may be all that we need. If we make do with what we’ve got, we won’t miss what we have not.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Deron Williams would do
Oh, well.
Mo Williams wouldn’t be bad.
I’d take Parker because, even though he doesn’t hit the 3, you have to pay attention to him even when he doesn’t have the ball. He’s a threat to take it to the hole if you leave him open and Brandon gets him the ball.
George Hill might be a good option.
Devin Harris would be comparable to Parker, plus he’s a better defender than Andre.
Personally, I’m not in a panic about it, because I think Bayless may be just fine. But you said it right. We’re “making do” right now, because Andre is good enough at what he does do that it makes it worth it, but that doesn’t make him the best fit with Brandon. Blake isn’t either, but Brandon and Steve had great synergy which really, really helped to cover for Blake’s deficiencies.
It doesn’t have to be a 3 point shooter, it just has to be someone who is an off-the-ball threat. Andre isn’t. A 3 point threat would be a really nice plus, of course.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I like Parker because of his playoff experience
and he’s played with a big man all his career, so he has to be able to help Oden like he’s worked with Duncan, even though Tim and Greg are different talents. Tony can knock down the 15-20 footer, so he shouldn’t be as bad a match with Roy as AK thinks. But it’s going to cost Batum or LMA to acquire the French PG, and most people don’t want to go “there” just yet
I’m not as high on Harris as I was 12+ months ago. Did you see those scouting videos the NJ blogger did last week? Arroyo and Jack blew by Devin like he was standing still. Brutal. I’ll take my chances with Bayless
D-Will and Hill are pipe dreams. Like I said, it’s a short list. There should be no hurry to replace ’Dre, and Jerryd might be more of an PGotF answer than anyone is expecting. Rex just needs the reps
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Oh and Mo Williams? Meh
I’d rather have Blake at half the salary
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Mo is quicker
and as good from 3.
Harris had a bad year. I’m not ready to write him off. He’d be fine with us, IMO.
There’s others. Jameer Nelson (also unavailable). There’s lots of guys who are decent ballhandlers/facilitators (we don’t need a guy who is great at this because he’ll be playing with Brandon) who can A) play better man defense than Andre and/or B) knock down a decent percentage of 3s.
If you are putting together a list of qualities of your ideal PG for this team, a decent 3 point shot and quick enough to defend most PGs would be high on the list. Andre doesn’t have either quality.
I also think there’s a very good chance Jerryd is the answer.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I wouldn’t mind the slow tempo so much if we were actually moving on offense. It’s when you have two or three guys standing around, their defenders don’t have to work.
No one is going to argue with this take. Nate feels that his offensive system is efficient and the team’s regular season W-L improvement backs him up, even if the pace-adjusted stats and the playoff results don’t. Bernie B was on Courtside last night and he repeated that the system isn’t broke, but it’s the asst coaches job to make suggestions. Perhaps some of these “new ideas” will be more player movement? We won’t really know until we see it out on the floor.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah, it ain't broke
but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t really use a tune-up. It’s efficient and works well because of the incredible talent at Nate’s disposal. But even I could put together an efficient offense with these guys. The fact that it is efficient doesn’t prove that it is anywhere near as effective as it could be.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I'll settle for defensive improvement
because if the defense can get more stops, deflections and force a lower opponent FG% then there will be more transition offense by osmosis. Where the offensive execution really comes into play is the post season, and if Nate and his coaches stumble in the playoffs again (with a healthy roster) then it will be time for Allen/Cho to make a change
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Cherry-picking
Take the easy improvements. Defense is an obvious one. Grabbing a few easy buckets in transition is another. But it wouldn’t be hard to find some easy ways to improve the offense, too. And one more bucket is as good as one more stop on the defensive end.
A) More off the ball movement should get us a couple more easy buckets a game without much trouble at all, bumping us up a couple notches in offensive efficiency.
B) Teaching Brandon and LaMarcus to run a decent pick and roll could add 3-4 points per 100 possessions.
etc.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
They aren’t generally quick hitters
Andre can bring the ball down the floor, hesitate on his dribble and then blow past his defender for a lay-in. That’s quick-hitting. Or, would you rather Miller hesitate, pull the ball back out and hand it to Brandon. Then go stand in the corner like Blake?
Variety on offense is not a bad thing. Roy and Miller get things done with different styles. This can make the Blazers more difficult to defend, once they and their teammates are all on the same page. I submit that the pages were ripped out of the playbook and the team was basically winging it from December-April due to all the injuries. Surprisingly, they did well versus all the adversity and both Andre and Brandon are now in good spirits heading into this coming season.
I’m not sure why fans think they won’t be getting along again, this fall. Controversy is more interesting to read about, I guess. Even if it’s unsubstantiated
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 16, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Quick-hitting
I’m talking about quick hitting in the half-court. You’re on this Blake vs. Miller thing again. That’s last year’s controversy — Blake isn’t here. The last two sentences of your first paragraph are totally irrelevant to whether Andre and Roy complement each other that well.
How often, when Andre gets the ball in the half-court, does it bring an immediate bucket, either because he immediately slashes to the hoop or goes up with a quick shot (that goes in)? Not that often. Of course Andre can run the break, though we didn’t see enough of it last year. That’s not the point. Other PGs can run the break, too.
I’m not sure why you said “fans think they won’t be getting along again, this fall,” either. That’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about how well their playing styles fit together.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
And I say they've shown the willingness to work together, and that's half the battle
it’s not like they’re out there trying to pull the offense in one direction or the other, to suit their own agendas. These are not selfish, stat-driven players
Do system adjustments need to be made so these two players can play effectively together? No question. What I’m saying is that the possibility is there, and what fans think can’t (or will never) happen isn’t as important to me as what the players and coaches will make happen. As long as everyone who’s involved has what’s best for the team in mind, there’s hope for improvement.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Hope for improvement, sure
Never will their styles be an ideal fit, though. It is what it is.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Brandon can spot up for 3, which would make Andre’s post up plays more dangerous, but we don’t really want Brandon to just be a 3 point spot up guy
Not 100% of the time, no. But why head to that extreme? Suffice to say that when ‘Dre has the ball down low on a mismatch, Brandon could be one of the options to spot up and drain a 3. Added benefit: there will be less wear and tear on Roy is he’s not the primary ballhandler on every offensive possession
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Sure, I agree
But either A) We do that all the time, with Brandon spotting up for 3 or B) we don’t do it all the time. And if we don’t do it all the time, where’s the synergy between them? Will Andre find Brandon curling off of screens off the ball, for quick jumpers or to slash to the hoop? OK, that would be another good option, if Brandon will develop that part of his game as well. I would like to see a lot of that. But where is the synergy when Brandon has the ball? Are you going to take the ball out of Roy’s hands entirely?
If you want Brandon to be operating with the ball, then Andre just isn’t the ideal PG to be playing next to him. And I do want to see the ball in Brandon’s hands quite a bit.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
the goal is to diversify the offense
and take advantage of mismatches
I can’t set up every possible scenario to satisfy you, but here are a couple of for-instances
The opponent has a small PG they rely on for penetration and scoring. They won’t win unless this player is on the court as much as possible. He will have to defend either Roy or Miller. When the little guy is on Andre, clear a side and let Andre back him down. If he switches to Roy, then get the ball to Brandon in the post. Advantage Portland either way. Both of these guards can pass out of double teams if the opponent sends help, although Dre is much better at finding open players at the rim.
Roy has said that he needs to learn how to play off the ball. We had several discussions about this during the season; Miller can pass to Brandon on the elbow and Roy can attack from there, as opposed to constantly relying on the ISO. Where Andre moves after he gives the ball to Roy is very important. It should be to the weak side, and if Miller’s defender doesn’t “follow” him then the offense needs to adjust to this. Miller with no one on him can still be dangerous, even if he’s not shooting a long jumper. Dre’s got plenty of wiggle and passing skills to make a defense pay if there’s no guarding him.
These scenarios need to be practiced and the ball rotation needs to be sharp so the defense doesn’t have time to react. The possibilities are endless, the only limititaion is the creativity/cohesion/imagination of the players and coaches
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with all of this
and if Brandon learns to play off the ball, that would be phenomenal.
But I never saw Andre looking like he knew how to play off the ball except when it was in the low post, and that’s not where Brandon operates.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
To get top effectiveness out of your scorers, you’ve got to be able and ready to punish the other team for helping on them. Both of these guys can do that, but they rarely do — it’s just not their style.
Then that’s something that they both can continue to work to improve upon, rather than the front office and coaching staff to throw their collective hands up and say it’s hopeless
Again, I saw improvement after the Blake trade in this area. I heard Brandon make concessions that his game needed to change last spring and again this summer. Why assume the backcourt relationship is static or can’t improve, after such a small and injury-riddled sample size?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Brandon, yes, and he should
Andre? You really think he’s going to change his game at this point?
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I think Miller "changed his game" several times, last year
as the Blazer’s personnel dictated
Subtle changes, to be sure. I’m not so sure that Andre and Nate are as inflexible as they are “given credit” for…after their yelling match changes were made, and the team rallied though the injury adversity
I realize that you want to know “how” these changes will appear, but that’s being discussed by the coaches this offseason and will be implemented during training camp. Like I told RFS1970, if Roy and Miller are still not compatible and the team is struggling during preseason then a change may need to be made, but I’m not anticipating this scenario, based on the 2nd half of last season
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I would not say "incompatible" at all
Please don’t overstate my take on this. I’d put it this way:
1. Andre and Brandon still haven’t really learned to play together that well (though I thought it was coming around at times).
2. I do expect they will make significant progress on this if we can have a reasonable year, injury-wise.
3. Even when they learn, their skills and styles are such that they’ll never mesh the way we would hope from our starting backcourt.
4. This is going to hinder Brandon from being as fully effective as he could be until we get a PG who is an effective off-the-ball threat.
I’ll add this, though. Having to play with Andre is likely to make Brandon better in the long run, because he has to learn to play off the ball. That is likely to mean more easy baskets, less reliance on isos, etc. So while Andre isn’t ideal in the long run, having to play with him for another year is likely to make Brandon better for the rest of his career, even if he struggles a little more this year than he would if he had the “ideal” PG.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I agree with all of that too.
They certainly aren’t incompatible, they beat the heck out of sub 0.500 teams last year. I too expect them to get better this year, and Brandon expanding his ability to play off the ball is good for him and the team.
But the bottom line for me is this – Brandon has to step his game up another notch for us to contend, and he is much more likely to do that playing with a PG that can shoot the ball and take some of the defense away from him.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Brandon has to step his game up another notch for us to contend, and he is much more likely to do that playing with a PG that can shoot the ball and take some of the defense away from him.
Why make it easier for him? Roy is going to have to learn to score when there isn’t a lane wide enough to drive a truck through, because that’s how it’s going to look in the playoffs, against superior defenses
OTOH, Andre could make it easier for Brandon to score by setting him up in situations where the defense isn’t all focusing at Roy as he’s crossing his man over at the top of the key. If Brandon can catch the ball on the move from Miller at the elbow, he can get into the heart of the defense more easily than if he’s running the ISO or PnR
I think they’ll figure it out. Just adding a better-shooting PG could actually decrease the backcourt’s BBIQ and hinder Roy’s growth curve. He needs to be challenged, and to overcome obstacles, not be coddled
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Let's just move on.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Good take, Dave,
but quite optimistic. Many of the same reasons you give describe why this team is iffy. Brandon will have increased opportunity to lead, but has he shown an affinity for leadership up until now? Meh. In spots. With games on the line, he has shown superstar quality. But on the defensive end? In his response to Andre Miller? In his words with the media? Signs of a will not yet set on its goal.
Yes, when the machine is in place, there is the hope that Brandon will know how to jam it in to gear and drive it home. But issues of chemistry, coaching and personnel persist as well.
I hear what you say about time solving a lot of these problems. But time works the other way also, locking you in to limitations.
Portland remains largely a team of potential and question marks. Last year the pause button got pushed. And that’s where we were then.
Hopefully by the time the season rolls around I will have the same interest and enthusiasm for what might be as I did last year. But last year was not just about bad luck. It seemed scattershot on a number of levels.
But here I am, keeping on coming back. :)
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
but has he shown an affinity for leadership up until now? … In his response to Andre Miller?
Everyone seems to remember the beginning of the season when there concerns voiced by Roy and LMA about remaining “option 1 and option 2” on offense. What’s not remembered as clearly were Brandon’s comments after he returned from his hamstring injury that he now realized how he and Miller could play off of each other (perhaps the time off helped Roy see the light, or maybe it was the Blake trade that helped Brandon reach this epiphany?) Regardless, the two of them were making it work during March and early April, and only Roy’s knee injury derailed the process
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 16, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I remember that
In Fact, I was thinking of that very statement, they never really had that chance of playing off each other for long, but that may well have been the epiphany that made him chose to practice and get lean, mean on and off the bal; that is very encouraging to me. That is what I was talking about when I said he didn’t cry about misfortunes, but dedicated himself to being a better all around player.
Thanks for reminding us of that. Also, remember Coach Nate’s planned meal with Greg, LMA and BRoy which at that time was to inform them that they would have to learn to play together regardless of problems but Greg’s injury derailed that. That plan for a short time may very well include Dre. Plus it will help BRoy adapt to future changes of the guards.
hg
Roy repeated this same "off the ball" sentiment during summer league
Sure, Andre is a short timer. But that means months and (possibly a couple of) years and not days and weeks
it will help BRoy adapt to future changes of the guards.
Yes, I much less-concerned about the Blazers acquiring Devin Harris or Tony Parker now than 12 months ago. Because now I’ve seen that Roy doesn’t necessarily need a floor-spreading PG like Blake to remain productive
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It is hard to glean insight in to someone from media comments.
That said, there are plenty of examples of Brandon saying the right sorts of things to the media. But my overall impression from his comments, is that he does not yet know his own mind or will. Dave describes it very well in the post when he writes about a veteran having no problem sorting out the young’uns. There is a certain psychological brutality that you need to lead men in to battle. And not everyone has that.
Might Brandon Roy become the sort of leader that can take this team to the heights of competition? Certainly. But like a lot of things about this team, it remains a question mark.
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
Regardless, the two of them were making it work during March and early April, and only Roy’s knee injury derailed the process
Prior to Roy’s hamstring injury Miller was deferring the offense to Roy. But during Roy’s hamstring injury Miller established himself as the go-to guy on offense. When Roy came back Miller would handle the ball longer trying to create the offense. When Roy got the ball it was often much later in the shot clock than prior to his hamstring injury, and he ended up taking poorer outside shots as a result. Roy shot only 27.7% on 3’s after he came back, while he shot 34.9% during the first 38 games of the season.
I gave the shooting stat because people like stats (I think because its easy to accept a stat when it agrees with what you want and it’s easy to find a reason to dismiss a stat when it doesn’t), but observationally I could plainly see the difference in the way Roy and Miller played together after Roy came back. Roy stood around without the ball much more, and got the ball later in the shot clock. Miller simply didn’t defer the offense to Roy as much (I think because he had taken on a larger offensive roll while Roy had been out). That didn’t matter in games against sub 0.500 teams because they are individually good enough players to beat those teams. But it did matter in games against 0.500 or better teams, which they only won 2 out of 9 games.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Roy's shooting could have been affected by other factors
Like, his legs were never really right during the 2nd half of the season and his timing was off after missing a month following hamstring recovery?
Brandon’s taking steps to return in better health than at any time than during the 2009-2010 season. I don’t think the cause-effect of Portland’s winning percentage versus .500 or better teams can be pinned solely on the starting backcourt. These teams are hard enough to beat when everyone is healthy and after the lineup has been playing together for years
If Roy and Miller are moping around in trainig camp and preseason and the offense isn’t clicking because they’re “incompatible” then I’ll agree that a PG change needs to be made. But I’m not expecting this to be the case, from all that we’ve heard about their offseason attittudes and conditioning
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Roy’s shooting could have been affected by other factors
Could have been, but his non-3 pt shooting only dipped by 2% to 49.7%, while his 3 pt shooting dropped by over 7%. I think he generally makes more athletic moves (i.e. use his legs more) getting off the shorter shots (which include drives to the hoop, etc.), so I’d think those shots would be affected as much or more. Anyway, that’s what I mean about stats, you can use them when they make your point and easily argue with them if they don’t. That’s why I described what I saw, which was Roy getting the ball much later in the shot clock from Miller and being less of the offensive initiator.
I don’t think the cause-effect of Portland’s winning percentage versus .500 or better teams can be pinned solely on the starting backcourt.
I’d agree that’s true, but using the team record to judge their “fit” was originally your claim. I would never have added up their record and known they were 2-7 against teams over 0.500 if you hadn’t written many times that the Blazers 17-5 record showed that Roy and Miller were playing well together.
(They were actually 17-7 if you count Roy’s first game back when he played just 15 minutes in a win against the Clippers, and omit the game he hurt his knee after playing just 11 minutes. I omitted both of those games in the shooting stats above.)
I didn’t think they were playing well together, so I added up the records and found out they were killing the bad teams but losing to the good teams. So discount it now, but it was originally your idea to use the team’s record in that period to show how well they were playing together.
For instance you wrote as recently as July 30,
If the Blazers had gone 11-11 down the stretch instead of 17-5
then the questions of Miller-Roy as a backcourt "fit" would linger, and justifiably so
So using your logic, going 2-7 against the 0.500 or better teams should be relevant to the “fit” issue, right? If going 11-11 would leave “fit” questions lingering, then going 2-7 against the good teams seems like it should almost be convincing?
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Legs are a huge factor on 3 point shooting
Going to the hoop, it’s body control, recognition, etc.
When guys have tired legs, they can still score in close, but the outside shooting starts to go first.
Mostly, I agree with you on this, but on that point I think Roy’s shooting probably was greatly impacted by injuries/conditioning, and if 3 point shooting dropped off more than overall shooting, that would support that view.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
Brandon couldn't even score in close
several times in game 6 he tried for tip ins near the basket that are usually bunnies for him, but he couldn’t get the lift to get more than a fingertip on the ball
it will be so nice to see him playing fully healthy again
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah, I wasn't talking about the playoffs
He probably shouldn’t have even been playing.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I don't think he made it worse by playing
it wasn’t like Roy was in pain, he was just…very mortal. Superman meet kryptonite
Rudy didn’t step up, so what was Nate gonna do?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't think he did, either
But playing when you are that hampered, even if you aren’t at risk of reinjury, runs the risk of hurting something else. And he just wasn’t effective.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I suppose we'd have to ask Brandon if his legs were a problem
and whether it affected his 3-pt shooting more than his midrange jumpers, etc. But he averaged more than 37 minutes a game in his last 23 games (this is after he returned from the hamstring). So I suspect his conditioning was pretty good and his hamstring was no longer a problem in at least his last 10 or 15 games.
In his last 10 games he shot 21.4% on 3’s, or in his last 15 games he shot 27.5%, which was nearly identical to the 27.7% he shot over the entire 23 games. So he was consistently shooting the 3’s poorly after he came back. It wasn’t like he was bad after first coming back and then got better as his conditioning improved and his legs got stronger again. I guess you could argue he never got his conditioning back and his legs never got stronger, but as I said he averaged over 37 minutes a game and averaged over 20 points per game for those 23 games.
In this case the statistics happen to support what I saw, but they really don’t matter because they can be challenged for one reason or another. What I saw is what matters to me. Prior to Roy’s hamstring injury Miller had been deferring more of the offensive creation to Roy. But Miller obviously had to take over the Blazer offense while Roy was out and when Roy came back he spent more time standing around watching Miller trying to create the offense. When Roy got the ball it was often after the offense had broken down and there was less time left on the shot clock. More of his 3-pt shots looked forced to beat the clock. That was my original point before getting sidetracked into the meaning of the shooting stats.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Roy's Team
I think this season is big for Roy because now he has a team crafted around him. We could argue the backup PF position or endlessly debate the PG situation, but top to bottom this roster is designed to function behind Brandon Roy. The rookies are ideal for Roy’s game of drawing defenders and kicking the ball out. Matthews fits the mold perfectly of playing tough defense and hitting open shots, and works whether Roy is at the 1 or 2.
If all the moving parts fit together, and none of them break, there’s no reason why Roy can’t have a really special season and lead this team past the first round.
Roy and Andre were playing pretty well together before Roys injury
Last year was a transition year for Broy. Learning to adapt his game to another Premier backcourt player. In essence, he need to leave his comfort zone ( Blake) for the team to take the next step. Unfortunately injuries really screwed with the process and outcome.
A lot of people have underestimated Roy in the media and at this very site. Every metric/ statistic shows he is on the verge of being great. He is already a top of the line closer. Really, in combo with a healthy frontcourt Roy is gonna kick it this year and probably have to play less minutes to do it. Rip CIty all the way!
in combo with a healthy frontcourt Roy is gonna kick it this year and probably have to play less minutes to do it.
Less is more. Hopefully Matthews and Bayless will play well and the team will be so far ahead in the 4th quarter on most nights that Roy and Miller can sit on the bench and ice their joints
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
What is isn't what was, but the results of what was.
Roy had what I consider his worst season in the pros last year relative to expectations
Because of that what BRoy is going to be by going through the adversities is what is going to make BRoy great. BRoy is still very vulnerable to minipulation of the media, teammates and fans. IMO, BRoy has matured enough to know that what BRoy is is what BRoy makes him to be not the media, the fans or the teammates.
hg
I think Roy's leadership has been fine
It doesn’t need to be more vocal or insistent. The guy has worn the C on his chest since he first joined the team. He should keep doing what he’s doing. We don’t need him to start running to the media with everything. Among the players, Roy’s one of the most respected in the league, probably behind only D-Wade and a few other megastars.
So I don’t see any need to change that up.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
there has to be accountablility
when Juwan Howard joined the team he took Roy aside and told him it was OK if Brandon busted the oldtimer’s chops in front of his teammates
Then Howard threw the ice chests over after the team gave a lackluster effort against OKC at home. Not surprisingly, the team responded afterwards
“Somebody” needs to tell Roy and LMA when they aren’t giving enough effort on defense. If the coaches yell too much the players will tune them out. The locker room has to have a pecking order and an alpha dog. If Roy doesn’t want to be “that guy” then veterans (with no time to waste on PC/politics) need to be added to the roster who will lay the law down
that’s how championships are won
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 16, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Agree 100%
I was sad to see Howard sign with the Heat, because I felt the Blazers needed his toughness — not just on the court, but in the locker room as well. Nate could stand a little bit of that too — notice that the Blazers did a lot better after Miller called him out during practice and got in his face.
It is one thing when your team is making physical errors, and missing shots. It is entirely another when they are making mental mistakes or, worse yet, not giving 100%. There were times last season when I felt like the Blazers just were going through the motions, typically after they had had a few days off. I kept thinking that Nate needed to throw a couple chairs around during halftime.
But I guess that isn’t their style: be scrappy, but don’t be emotional.
From the moment I saw Brandon take hte floor in a Blazer uniform I thoguht "long term."
Granted, I thought that about Z-Bo a few times early in his career, but where he declined, Brandon has risen like a rocket. Character, leadership, on-court skills and overall well-roundedness of play.
Born Naked
Nice Post Dave
Normally I agree with most of what Dave writes on Blazersedge.
On this occasion, there is no discrepancy; Dave is again right on the money.
Things have changed, and this is Roy’s team and they can only go as far as he takes them.
Some would say this team goes no where without Oden, yet the same can be said for Roy.
Oden can shore up the middles, but it’s Roy’s leadership that can guide them to victory.
Fans may disagree with me and they are wrong.
As long as Roy is healthy, there should be no limit to what the Blazers can achieve.
Sadly, keeping Roy and the rest of the roster healthy has been a challenge.
Thankfully, the new GM is probably using stats right now to fix the training staff.
Average fans may not be able to appreciate the nuances and greatness Roy brings to the game.
Normally, I am fine with them living in ignorance, and now I think it’s great that Dave is educating them.
Dave knows the truth.
Remember now, what I say tomorrow, that Roy is the best.
Everyone must understand that simple truth.
Most casual fans have a child like understanding of what Roy brings to the Blazers.
Inspecting his game and dissecting the advances stats is the best way to appreciate his greatness.
Limiting your basketball knowledge of Roy to just his PERs and Youtube clips does not do him justice.
Learned basketball fans truly know Roy’s greatness because they watch the games and read Basketball Prospectus.
Enlightened by their knowledge, they spread the good word about Roy to the ignorant.
Regardless of their social, religious, or medical background, anyone can learn to love Roy.
What is said on this blog helps the cause.
It leads to a greater appreciation of Roy’s game and what he brings to the Blazers.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though.
Lots of fans do not want to be enlightened; they’d rather be told what to think by the media.
Defensively, Roy will need to improve; luckily he has some guys that can help.
Expecting Roy to carry the defensive and offensive burden for the Blazers is short sighted.
Some days, he’ll only have the energy on one end of the floor.
That’s where good coaching comes in.
Roy might need to be told by Nate that defense is an important part of a well rounded game.
Oden, will help, but Roy must help as well, to keep Oden out of foul trouble.
Years from now, we’ll look back on their collaboration and hopefully we’ll have fond memories.
The coaching staff has to help a lot as well.
History has shown that great coaching helps team win.
I hope that Nate strives for greatness and demands it from in his coaches and from his players.
Some help from the management would be nice as well.
Together the management, coaches, Roy, Oden, and others can achieve greatness.
Everything is laid out ahead of them.
All they have to do is go get it.
My hope, is they go get it soon.
by tominhawaii on Aug 16, 2010 6:02 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Limiting your basketball knowledge of Roy to just his PERs and Youtube clips does not do him justice.
Exactly right.
If Luke Babbitt and Jerryd Bayless played a game of table tennis I'm not sure who would win but the ping pong ball would lose no matter what. - Ben 7/16/2010
That "Learn to Write in Simple, Declarative Sentences" class you've been taking
has really paid off, Tom.
by MiledAnimal on Aug 16, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Great article Dave!
And my hat’s off to you as well for your explanation to the King’s fan of B-Roy vs Kevin Martin. Obviously you were talking to someone who was looking at stats only and not how the player related to the rest of the team and did the things every game that don’t show up on a stat sheet or an ESPN highlight reel.
That said, Brandon’s biggest challenge is probably still going to be adjusting his game alongside Andre Miller et al. I think he’s going to be fine health-wise and to me he’s been a pretty vocal leader ever since calling out Z-Bo. Roy definitely belongs in the superstar discussion, there would be no question about it if he was on a major market team, but he’s in P-Town (thankfully)
"He's the one Natural One makes it easy, he can take it inside"
Don’t judge just by what you seen in December, 2010. Look at what’s happening in April, 2013
I wish I could be optimistic that Roy’s knees will allow him to still be dominant in April 2013, but after what happened last season Brandon seems to be more of a ticking time bomb (health-wise) than a rock of Gibraltar
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Sure
So one of the “reasons” The Blazers will do well is that some guy in Sacremento use to think Kevin Martin was going to be the better player?
Listen, at this point in Brandons career I don’t think you have to defend or even really define Brandons talent all you have to do is point to his accomplishments. Rookie of The Year and multiple All-Star game appearances. Yeh, Brandons good, Brandon can be great.
But if your looking for reasons The Blazers wil do well? Siting Brandon Roy does not remove you from the apparent weakness or fear I think Blazer fans must face. The reality is Brandon Roy, Rookie of The Year, followed by All-Star appearances but also an inflammatory heel condition, and multiple knee surgeries that have left him with less cartiledge in his knee.
I have no qualms or questions about either Brandon Roys talent or his mental toughness. But if we want to take a real look at where this team is at or might be headed, then we have to admit that we need to see if Brandon can play a whole season. Pain and age can slow the greatest and the question remains can Brandon remain healthy? Brandon has yet to suffer the all encompassing type of shut the season down injury that has befallen Oden…twice…but last Season Brandon even before the knee injury was hampered by a nagging groin pull that seemed to take forever to heal.
No, sorry Dave, if I was picking a starting point as to why I ultimately think The Blazers will do well? It starts and ends with Paul Allen. If he is caring about The Blazers, and wants them to do well, I think he has shown a history of applying the resources to allow for success. That’s the safety net for this franchise. Paul Allen want’s and expects a level of success from the teams he owns, as a fan I get to go along for the ride.
Maybe this franchise and this fanbase, given the turmoil this off-season with the Kevin Pritchard saga…and coming out of the S.O.I.-season of injury, need a little optimism. So maybe some simplified Rah! Rah! Hey we have talent, things are going to be great is justified and needed….I don’t know.
But the harsh truth is “Brandon Roy” could be as much a reason why this franchise might be headed for a rebuilding cycle, as he could be a reason we could be headed towards the N.B.A. finals. Only the season, and reality will define this, and nobody knows how it’s going to play out.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Paul Allen
has been committed to this team since he bought it, and yet it hasn’t happened. Having Paul Allen’s Money helps, but it isn’t the beginning and the end. You can’t buy a championship in basketball. The Jailblazers proved that.
You need a superstar to bring you a championship and Dave is saying that Brandon Roy is that guy. Injury problems, yes, but look at Dwyane Wade — injury-riddled through most of his NBA career but nobody would say he wasn’t key to bringing Miami a championship.
And I don’t understand why you would say Roy would be the reason we would be headed for a rebuilding cycle. His presence only helps the team. Maybe elaborate a little more on that?
If Luke Babbitt and Jerryd Bayless played a game of table tennis I'm not sure who would win but the ping pong ball would lose no matter what. - Ben 7/16/2010
Okay...
Point #1, I agree. Paul Allen has been committed to this team as an owner. I’ve been a Blazer fan since before his ownership…so well I know that a championship can’t be bought. I never said he could buy a championship….but as far as The Blazers go? His attitude and approach to ownership “kinda” is the begining and the end. How willing he is to be supportive and whom he likes or does not like translates directly, if this summer hasn’t shown that, I don’t know what else it has shown. But I did not mean to present Paul Allen as a reason to debate his impact, just IMO the #1 reason I never get too down about where The Blazers are, is Paul Allen. I believe he wants a winning team and so ultimately whatever happens I think he will use his resources to make sure a good team is maintained. So the real reason we are good today is Paul Allen, and the reason we will never get too bad is also IMO Paul Allen.
Point(s) #2. You need a superstar to bring you a championship. Yep, I agree with that as well. Read my 2nd paragraph. I know Brandon is good. I believe Brandon is capable of greatness. But the fact remains that for Brandon to be that superstar that can bring us a championship or with other pieces make us championship viable…he must be healthy and able to play, and play at a high level. Sure Dwayne Wade was a key to Miami winning a championship and Dwayne Wade has also struggled with injuries. So What? Dwayne Wade, just like Brandon Roy or any other player can only be key, when they can play. As good as Dwayne Wade might be, he wasn’t leading Miami anywhere when he was injured. Truth is Brandon has struggled with injury and as great as he is capable of being, if the truth becomes he can’t play a full season, or his lack of cartiledge in his knee starts to hamper his play…then Brandon will not be able to lead The Blazers anywhere.
All I’m saying is Dave is being 100% optimistic. Which is fine. But the "reason"" I say it could be as likely that a year from now we are looking at Brandon as the reason this team needs to look at rebuilding as much as looking at this team and thinking we are primed and ready for championship run is my respect for Brandon Roy. IF the reality turns out Brandon simply cannot be healthy for a full season and playoff run, then I think you start to think about what you want to do with this team. Including thinking about pretty severe moves and rebuilding.
A failed Brandon…and the Blazers will need to rebuild. IMO.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Okay
IF the reality turns out Brandon simply cannot be healthy for a full season and playoff run, then I think you start to think about what you want to do with this team. Including thinking about pretty severe moves and rebuilding.
But what indications do you currently have that Brandon Roy will break down like this? There are some uncertainties, for sure, but then nobody knows when Kobe Bryant will break down either. That doesn’t mean that the Lakers are wondering when to start rebuilding.
And as a more general observation, as a sports fan, I think it’s our right to be overly optimistic and not plan for disaster. Most sports fans are optimists and in fact it takes a certain amount of over-optimism to follow a team. If you continually feel like your team is on the brink of disaster it wouldn’t be much fun. And sports is about fun.
Another general point: I enjoy basketball, come what may. I try not to hinge my enthusiasm for the game on the fortunes of my particular favorite team. Thus I’m completely free to be optimistic without consequence if they don’t actually perform. Overly optimistic? Maybe. But that’s my right. :)
If Luke Babbitt and Jerryd Bayless played a game of table tennis I'm not sure who would win but the ping pong ball would lose no matter what. - Ben 7/16/2010
Four questions about Roy and the coming season:
1) How much will Roy play at the point?: There are a couple of indications that the team may be preparing to have Roy play some significant minutes at the point:
A) Roy has slimmed down significantly which suggests that he is trying to get quicker. Is this because he is planning to play at the one? Brandon’s size and strength would give him an automatic mismatch at PG on the offensive end. The downside has always been that he doesn’t have the quickness to effectively defend many of the uber-quick PGs in the league.
B) The acquisition of Mathews and the continued improvement of Bayless create two potential solution to the problem. Roy could play the point on offense while cross matching on the defensive end with Batum, Mathews, or Bayless depending on the match-up. Potentially, this gives Nate a lot of flexibility. We have heard a lot of talk about this idea in the past, but it has never really been practical. Does the arrival of Mathews and the improvement of Bayless mean that it will be a real option this season?
2) Is Roy ready to take his play to the next level as a playmaker?: Roy is very crafty and generally unselfish on the floor. He rarely tries to force things and is willing to create for his teammates. However, he has never been particularly skilled at making entry passes into the post, nor has he been particularly good at droppong the ball off to the bigs off the drive. With Oden and Camby offering better targets, will we see more of this in the coming season?
3) Will Roy improve from distance? As a scorer, Roy has only one real weakness, he isn’t a great 3 pt shooter. 33% isn’t bad, but it isn’t great. Improving from distance would force defenders to play Brandon tighter when he is at the line 3 pt line and would help set up his driving game. It would also help him be a more effective spot up shooter when Miller or Bayless are using their penetration skills to create drive and kick opportunities.
4) Can Roy improve his percentage from the line? Roy shot a very pedestrian 78% from the FT line. For a player of his skill at getting to the line, he should be better. Getting his percentage back up to 83% would have given him almost a half point per game. These are free points just waiting to be taken.
by upper left corner on Aug 16, 2010 8:55 AM PDT reply actions
My other big question would be Roy's defense
Having Andre, Wesley and Nicolas (as well as Greg and Marcus and Joel) around could benefit Roy on at least two fronts: He only has to pick up the worst wing in a lineup that also features Wesley and Nic while the center behind them can clean up a few mistakes, though please not too many ’cause otherwise there will be permanent foul trouble on that position.
And offensively, they might be able to take a little scoring load off him, thus giving him the ability to exert more energy on the defensive end of the floor, or at least reduce the credibility of that excuse.
Plus if the roster still features Wesley, Rudy and Jerryd, they could really keep Brandon’s minutes down to not more than 35 and sit him in 4th quarters of blowouts, or outright let him sit out some back to backs when he is dinged up a bit.
"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban
Roy's defense wasn't a big question mark before last season
it wasn’t necessarily a major strength of his game – but he had some very good moments shutting down some very good players the previous year.
Like his 3pt% and his FT% – Roy’s defense suffered with injury. It is not necessarily a predilection for taking it easy on defense.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 16, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Even during his UW days, Brandon Roy was a below average defender. Now, it's true that Roy ...
went from below average to abysmal on defense last season; however, he’ll never be more than an average defender at best. Average can only be attained if he puts out a full effort, too, and is healthy.
I disagree
We’ve seen some (isolated) great defensive stands from Roy.
Therefore, if he puts out a full effort and is healthy, I believe he can be a very good defender.
You may well be right that he’ll never be more than an average defender. But the tools are there to be much more than that. It’s a question of desire, commitment, and concentration.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
were you #4 on all your teams? you certainly have the 4 questions template down pat :)
1) Brandon has discussed his role as the point in the past – and it focused on his half-court role – not a primary defend/bring the ball up the court role. A Bayless type to bring the ball up the court, run the transition, and play off the ball would be a very good complement to Roy (spot up 3’s would be nice, too – but not all important).
2) I think there is a general consensus that Roy needs to add feeding guys moving to the basket off the pick/roll to his repertoire. Combine that with his already very good ability to feed the pick/pop or draw-the-defense-and-dish-or-finish-game – and he wouldn’t have any easily identifiable holes in his game because of ….
3) .333 was a career low and an obvious aberration exacerbated by injury. In 2008/2009 – Roy was .377 – same as his rookie year. He was at .340 in his sophomore season – but if we follow the cycle – he will be on an upswing again this year :)
4) again – sub 80% is an obvious injury correlation – not a norm
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 16, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Nah, although I played the "4" in Golden Ball.
I was a pretty serious wrestler from a pretty young age, so I never played b-ball after I got to high school.
I think the question format is from too many years competing as an extemporaneous speaker on my HS Speech Team. It wasn’t considered “cool” but being on the speech team taught me more useful skills than all my other extra curricular activities combined.
Hope your assessment regarding Roy is on the money.
by upper left corner on Aug 16, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Roy has slimmed down significantly which suggests that he is trying to get quicker. Is this because he is planning to play at the one?
I flip it the other direction. Roy knows that he won’t have to defend SFs this year, because Rudy will be gone and Matthews has that job, behind Batum. The other good reason that Brandon is slimming down is to not put as much stress on his joints.
Significant minutes at the point? I don’t know what that means. We may see some of Roy-Matthews-Batum at the 1-2-3 as the matchups dictate, but Miller and Bayless aren’t going to be thrown under the bus to try and “force” a big lineup, unless the opponent is also playing long (which is rare) Matthews isn’t a better ballhandler than Rudy, so adding Wesley to the 2-3 mix doesn’t make it any “easier” to experiment with Roy at PG.
he has never been particularly skilled at making entry passes into the post,
Some players have better court vision, creativity and are willing to take risks with the ball than others. I’m not sure if this is a skill that can be learned/developed in a player’s mid-20s. Roy doesn’t seem to look for his teammates when he rounds the corner on the PnR, unless the lane is shut down and there’s a spot-up shooter in the near corner. I would love to see him improve on this ability, but I’m certainly not counting on it. All the more reason to keep Andre around
he isn’t a great 3 pt shooter
I’m more hopeful in this area. Brandon can improve his range with more reps, and if his legs are heathier his percentage should rise, naturally
Roy shot a very pedestrian 78% from the FT line
Same answer, his legs were wobbly from December on and that affects shooting accuracy
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Adding Wesley to the mix
does make it easier to experiment with Roy at PG, because (as far as I know) he can legitimately defend PGs. Rudy couldn’t, and Martell wasn’t great at that, either.
So we can slide Roy to the point on offense with Matthews at SG, then put Matthews on the PG on defense. I won’t be surprised to see some Roy/Matthews backcourt play, something we didn’t really see with Rudy — because no one could defend the opposing PGs.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
I meant on the offensive end
as AK is fond of mentioning, Matthew’s handles are not the strong part of his game, so he wouldn’t offer much ballhandling relief to Roy on offense. It’s possible that Batum could help Brandon facilitate the offense, but he’s still pretty new at it. I don’t expect to see a lot of this trio unless the opponents are playing a similar lineup. It’s a nice tool to have in the kit, but it’s not the main course
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I know that's what you meant
It was obvious that you were focused on the offensive end. But we couldn’t use Roy at the point because of the defensive problems, last year, and this year that’s not an issue.
Wesley did ok at SG last year, he’d manage at times in the backcourt next to Brandon. I don’t know if we’ll use that lineup, since the guys we have at PG aren’t exactly chopped liver, but it is an option.
I do wish one thing. If Nate thinks it is a good lineup, I wish he would use it and make the other team respond, rather than only using lineups in reaction to the other team. We have the talent and the depth to dictate matchups rather than be dictated to. I wish Nate were a little more creative that way — it gives the other guy that many more things to think about and try to game plan against.
We have players who play defense now, look out!
If Nate thinks it is a good lineup, I wish he would use it and make the other team respond, rather than only using lineups in reaction to the other team
Yeah, well…Nate is Nate and not Don Nelson. McMillian thinks re: the defensive side of the floor and to matchup to what the other coach is doing and usually not to impose his will with big lineups. It can be frustrating, but that’s what I’ve come to expect.
Bernie said last night that when Portland had Oden and Przy healthy the middle was shut down and the opponent had to play from the perimeter. Put Matthews and Batum together out there (regardless of who the PG is) and that will be a long night for the other coach, no matter what lineup he chooses
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Right on!
but April 2013?? How about April 2011?!
"I come to you now, at the turn of the tide." -- Brandon "Gandalf" Roy, April 24th, 2010
Mostly true
Roy’s a great offensive off-guard, to be sure. But he’s a liability on defense. Worse, his poor D seems to be an effort issue, which doesn’t look good coming from your team leader.
by mannoname on Aug 16, 2010 11:21 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
I think your point is greatly overstated
IMO, Roy’s problem’s on defense had more to o with injury than effort.
by upper left corner on Aug 16, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Huh?
Roy was a terrible defender long before his injury woes.
by mannoname on Aug 16, 2010 12:08 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Huh?
Roy was a terrible defender long before his injury woes.
by mannoname on Aug 16, 2010 12:08 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
The guys watching him close out to the 3 point shooter disagree...
OK, maybe the injury caused the bad effort, but that’s as far as I’ll go…
Oh, and nice double mint twins on the double post, Miled...
Almost makes me want to double double post…
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