Pg comparison between the suns and blazers...

Perceptions of Bayless are central to most observers opinions of the “need” for a PG upgrade. If you are optimistic that Bayless has a good chance to develop into a starting PG who fits well next to Roy, then it doesn’t make a lot of sense to focus on bringing in a PG, now. Trading for a quality starting PG, in their prime, is difficult and extraordinarily expensive. Why pay the price, if you can fill the need with one of your own developing players? On the other hand, if like KV and DJ, you think Bayless “will never be a PG,” then looking for a replacement for Miller becomes a big priority.

The geezers seem like the epicenter of much of the “Blazers must upgrade their PGs” thinking, that filters down to BE. Both guys are old school (although I am older than KV) and seem to be stuck on the notion of classic Stockton/Nash PGs. Neither seems to have fully caught on the the effects of the new handcheck rules that place a very large premium on PGs who can score, in general, and penetrate, in particular.

Both guys made up their minds about Bayless very early on, “He isn’t a real PG. He is an undersized shooting guard who doesn’t shoot very well.” That wasn’t a bad or unfair description of Bayless’ rookie season. He posted a PER of 8.3 and a TS% under .500, while putting up an AST% of 18.3 and an AST/TO of 1.8. These are pretty poor numbers. You had to squint pretty hard to see Bayless’ potential.

The problem with this POV is that it closed peoples eyes to the very significant improvement in Bayless’ game. Bayless PER improved more than any one’s on the roster in both absolute and percentage terms from 8.2 to 14.3. His TS% jumped to .534 which is better than Miller’s, and better than what Roy posted in his sophomore season. Bayless’ 3 pt shooting improved from .259 to .315 and improved again in the latter part of the season and the playoffs to 40% for the last two months of the season.

Some fans seem blinded to Bayless’ effectiveness as a scorer because they focus on his jump shot and the relatively high number of shots he has blocked on his way to the rim. These folks miss the fact that Bayless’ ability to get to the line 6.7 times per 36 minutes of PT, greatly increases his overall efficiency. If Bayless can continue to improve his shooting and combine that with his ability to get to the line, he has a chance to become an extremely efficient, quadruple threat scorer who can 1) score in the open court and on penetration; 2) get to the line, 3) create his own shot, and 4) hit a decent percentage as a spot up shooter. There are plenty of perimeter players who can do one or two of these things well. Guys who can do all four are very difficult to defend. The defensive attention needed to slow these guys down opens up a lot of easy opportunities for their teammates to score.

Many of Bayless’ critics will reluctantly admit that the kid is a pretty good scorer, but remain adamant in their perception that he will never be a decent distributor. I think it is fair to say that there is decent statistical and anecdotal evidence on both sides of this debate. Bayless did seem to struggle at times running the second unit late last season. Were those struggles evidence that he lacks “court vision” as his critics are so fond of saying? Or, was it just a reflection of the fact that the second unit as a group wasn’t up to the task? Howard struggled mightily trying to anchor the interior defense of the second unit. Both Martell and Rudy where mired in terrible shooting slumps and together shot less than 35% after the All-Star break. Was the lousy shooting their fault or Bayless’? I don’t think there are real clear cut answers to any of these questions.

What I do think was pretty clear is that Bayless played much better in the playoffs. Instead of subbing in the whole second unit, Nate started playing Bayless more with Miller and Roy and more with other members of the first unit. Bayless’ results were much better when used this way. His AST%, which had improved to 22.3 during the regular season, jumped up to to 27.9. His TO% which had dropped from 19.3 his rookie season to a respectable 13.8, dropped further to a very good 9.6. He ended up with an AST/TO of 3:1, which is in line with the performance of the top PGs in the league.

There are plenty of examples of young guys who develop as distributors over their first few seasons in the league. There are also plenty of examples of guys who never do. I think the best we can say about Bayless is that all of the key indicators are moving significantly in the right direction.

Given these facts, I think it makes sense to give Bayless another year, or at least until the trade deadline, to show what he can do. The cost of waiting is pretty low. The cost of trading for another PG is very high.

Of course, if New Orleans decides to have a fire sale on CP3, all bets are off……..
 
*All stats come from BasketballReference.com

he seemed like the only one besides Roy and Miller that had a desire to win that series. The dude is fearless too and with his work ethic he is bound to get better.

taking averages of averages, unless you weight them for minutes.

Bottom line is Blazers couldn’t stop the constant penetration, pick and rolls, etc. of their guards which resulted in a lot of open threes and Amare.