Poll: Which Oden scenario is most likely?

by halo_on on Jul 4, 2010 3:27 PM PDT

I thought this would be a good extension of Dave's latest post. Did I miss any scenarios? Let's assume Greg does not suffer another season-ending injury. Just for the sake of my own sanity let's assume he doesn't. The Blazers front office have a lot of thinking to do and decisions must be made at the right time to avoid overspending. Look into your magic 8-ball friends! Which of these scenarios seems most likely to you? Additional thoughts?

Poll

Which of these six Greg Oden scenarios can we say is most likely right now?

Oden extended before 2010/2011 opens.

52 votes

Oden extended during the 2010/2011 season. Assume he returns strong and the Blazers front office want to avoid RFA talks next offseason.

115 votes

Oden survives 2010/2011 without a season-ending injury, the Blazers front office played "wait & see" and Greg is offered a new contract as a RFA that offseason.

103 votes

Oden is offered a modest extension before the end of next season but decides to risk it and play the RFA market.

57 votes

Oden traded before next season opens.

10 votes

Oden traded during 2010/2011 before the deadline.

6 votes

343 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I don't see any scenario where Oden leaves or is not offered a decent contract from us

unless a very nice trade comes up and he is part of it.

by spambot on Jul 4, 2010 3:36 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, I thought of that. But if he DOES leave, mark option #4 then. That he plays the RFA market.

"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.

by halo_on on Jul 4, 2010 3:37 PM PDT reply actions

Just a prediction

Greg plays 60 something games, getting around 13-10, and signs a shorter contract (maybe 3 years) for around $30 million after the 2010-2011 season.

Get well Greg! Rip City is still behind you!

by axel360 on Jul 4, 2010 4:01 PM PDT reply actions

I don’t think scenario 2 is allowable under NBA rules. As I understand it, if Oden hasn’t signed an extension by October 31, he will become an RFA.

I voted for scenario 4, though scenarios 1, 2 and 4 are all quite plausible, and I wouldn’t totally rule out scenario 5.

by jksnake99 on Jul 4, 2010 4:21 PM PDT reply actions

That's my understanding as well

But what happened with Camby? Was it because he was going to be a UFA?

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 4, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions

yes, Camby would have been a UFA if we had not extended him.

by jksnake99 on Jul 4, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions

It was because Camby was not on a rookie contract.

Rookies are handled differently.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 4, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions

S'good, thanks

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 4, 2010 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions

meant scenarios 1,3 and 4 are quite plausible. Not #2 obviously, since its impossible.

by jksnake99 on Jul 4, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Pretty funny that the leading vote getter in the poll (at he moment) is IMPOSSIBLE.

Oden can NOT be extended during the 2010-11 season. He is either extended by Nov 1 (since Oct 31 is a Sunday) of this year or he becomes a restricted free agent next July 1. He can’t be extended during or after the season ends.

If Oden becomes a restricted free agent he can sign and offer sheet with any team and we can match it. Or he can negotiate a new contract with the Blazers. Or he can sign the Blazers qualifying offer (which is 1 year only) and then he becomes an unrestricted free agent following the 2011-2012 season.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 4, 2010 4:32 PM PDT reply actions

so how is it impossible?

option 2" “Oden extended during the 2010/2011 season. Assume he returns strong and the Blazers front office want to avoid RFA talks next offseason” -halo_on

“He is either extended by Nov 1 (since Oct 31 is a Sunday) of this year or he becomes a restricted free agent next July 1” -you

last year the first game of 2009-2010 was Oct 27th. if he is extended on the oct 31 2010 then its during the 2010-2011 season I would assume.

#88

by pipgras on Jul 4, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think that was the intent of the poll question, but hey ... you got me there.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 4, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions

It was the intent.

"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.

by halo_on on Jul 4, 2010 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Er, my apologies. I see what you meant now. I guess #2 is invalid. I would assume many of those voting for #2 would be counted as #1 votes then, I guess. I think the Blazers will have a pretty good idea what to expect from him before the season opens. That said, I’m in the “wait & see” camp.

"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.

by halo_on on Jul 4, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions

I also doubt we will sign him this summer. I expect he will go to RFA.

My only concern about not signing him would be if the new CBA creates an unfavorable situation for us.

BTW, I expect there to be no signing players or making trades next summer. The CBA expires on June 30 and the players and the NBA should be fully at war by then. Since there will be no CBA the NBA will prohibit the teams from signing players or trading players until after the lockout is over. I figure signings and trades won’t begin until about Jan of 2012 before the players get hungary and cave-in. That’s the scenario that occurred in the 1998-1999 lockout.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 4, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions

^^ Or they may get hungry, rather than take over a country (Hungary).

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 4, 2010 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Oden will probably be offered a modest extension when the Blazers can

But will likely be advised by his agent (assuming health) to play the RFA market. Portland will then have to match any (likely toxic) offers, unless we know something else about his health.

by Sir.Ludo on Jul 4, 2010 4:39 PM PDT reply actions

Who knows.

Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.

by Net Ranger on Jul 4, 2010 6:09 PM PDT reply actions

I think an extension will be worked out that both sides will agree on.

Lots of incentives.

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Jul 4, 2010 6:14 PM PDT reply actions

we'd have a milsap situation if he got to restricted free agency

some team would know that we’re devoted to oden and try to get us to sign a big contract just because we still have hope in greg. But i think we can agree that if he’s at the same place next offseason we can’t justify paying him anymore than 8 mil. He’s done absolutely nothing for us so far, hopefully greg can remember that and sign a small contract

by StocktonNEP on Jul 4, 2010 7:23 PM PDT reply actions