FanPost

A statistical analysis

http://7677maniacsblzerstats.blogspot.com/




I've graphed (see the link above) 2 pt field goals made for each game and then charted them using columns for each win, or loss, associated with the number of fields goals.

 

Two modes appear in the graph:  29 or fewer 2 pt field goals made the Blazer record was 20-17 which translates into a .54 probability of a win.  With 30 or more the Blazer record was 29-14 translating into a .67 probability of winning.

 

I then graphed made the sum of 2pt field goals and the total defensive rebounds.  Again graphing w/l in columns for each value.  When the blazers had a sum of less than 59 (made 2pt shots + def rebs) the expectation of a win was .41 .  When the sum of rebounds and 2 pt shots made was 59 or greater the expectation of winning was .79 (34-9).

My quick perusal of the stats suggest that three point shooting is only useful if it's good three point shooting.  Second this analysis suggests that running plays for the "offensively" challenged early in the clock would maximize the usefulness of their time on the court.  This analysis also points out the importance of defensive rebounding and the gamble hitting the offensive boards is if it hurts the defense (i.e. players out of defensive position, bad matchups making it easier for the other team to score two point fields goals).

I like frequency analysis like this rather than averages because frequencies of types of performances actually relates to the way basketball is played.

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