How important is "fit" at point guard?

I can understand the Portland love affair with Batum, I love the guy. What’s more difficult for me to understand is the inclusion of Bayless in near every trade post without even a discussion of what he brings to this team, which is a lot for the price, and soon to be more IMO.

 If he was able to average his playoff output, though maybe a 35-36% 3pt shooter rather than 40%, who wouldn’t be happy? By the way, time adjusted, he destroys Mo Williams in playoff output. The guy is only 21 years old, and averaged fewer than 18mpg during the regular season, give him a break. For me, were he to have been given a starting position on a bad team right off the bat, which is not difficult to picture given his performance in his first summer league, he’d likely be a near all star caliber scoring pg right now.

He is a hard worker, and dedicated to improving his game. Both his 3 point shooting and mid range game improved greatly from his rookie year, and will likely continue to improve. Both he and Batum have shown flashes of greatness, but also been inconsistant. As he has more playing time to improve his defensive game I think we will see great improvement both in his individual and team defense. He has the size, strength, speed, and quickness to be a very good pg defender.

I sure think it does. It seems like a team running a lot of Iso plays and pick n roll/pop really would benefits from floor spacing and perimeter shooting, but court vision and precision passing is still important but less critical from your PG. While a motion offense depends on court vision and passing, placing somewhat less emphasis on perimeter shooting and floor spacing. It seems clear that Nate isn’t changing his offensive philosophy so “fit” will matter. Miller is just good enough at what he does that he overcomes a lot of the “fit” concerns. As we look for a younger PG, it would be crazy to not consider the offense we run.

BRoy has said he is working this offseason at playing off the ball more. That would add a lot to the team as currently constituted. I have confidence Roy can develop that part of his game. If I were a coach, I would make it clear to my PG to be finding Roy off the ball or his floor time will be affected.

A point guard that can play SG (Bayless) is what fits Portland’s offense best. Roy ends up with the ball in his hands a true point guard will be under used. If a great assist producung PG (John Stockton) played beside Roy his totals would decline. The same reason the “pick & pop” play is used is to draw the defense out of the key so Roy can penetrate. Many ask why Aldridge doesn’t roll to the hoop more, ask Nate. If CP3 somehow ended up in Portland (won’t happen but he is the best example) Brandon Roy and Nate Mcmillan would have to change their offensive scheme. If the offense remains the same Roy needs to work on increasing his assists per game. For the future development of the team, however, Roy playing more off the ball would be better.

Using stats is supposed to involve looking at as wide a breadth of information as possible, and limiting claims to account for weaknesses in the data.

With that in mind, we should recognize that picking the top-bottom of the arbitrary 50mpg sample is not looking wide, it’s cherry picking. There’s no statistical reason to do either of those things, and notice that if one changes that arbitrary threshold, the whole analysis falls apart (look at how a unit with Blake is both just above and just below that +17 unit on the list…). Also note that the guys who invent adjusted +/- ratings don’t claim they are valid over periods of minutes, but rather multiple entire seasons.

All that said, Miller has played pretty well despite being a poor fit. We didn’t get a chance to see if he and Roy could find a way to play together in the playoffs and prevent defenses from exploiting Miller’s poor shooting and Roy’s lack of an off the ball game, but Dre did provide a steady hand to run the offense when the whole rest of the team seemed to be in flux. I wouldn’t look to trade for another PG just because he’s a better fit, but rather if he brings more talent to the table than Miller, which is not an easy thing to find.

You’ll have a hard time beating Andre’s career for a) durability b) consistent productivity c) lack of drama (save one much-need fit last January) and d) craftiness. There are very few PGs who would be better for the Blazers than Andre— especially ‘cuz we don’t have to give up anything to get him. When you factor in the cost of acquisition, I’d argue that few others besides CP3, DWill and Rondo would be worth the cost (and then only if we don’t give away any of our big 3). I think it’s high time to celebrate the fact that Andre Miller is our kick a$$ point guard and that we’ll get 82 games of quality play from him next year. Will NO be able to say that about Chris Paul?