Blazersedge Mailbag: Chris Paul Edition
by Dave on Jul 24, 2010 11:47 PM PDT
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PrintNow that we're past Summer League I'll catch up on your mailbag questions again. This special edition is all about Chris Paul, made necessary by more than 140 Paul-related queries sent in the last few days. To simplify I'm going to break down the specific questions into general categories, covering 30-odd variations at once. Also fair warning: I'm not prone to responding to specific trade ideas, as I could spend hours just addressing them. That's what the occasional Trade Drawer is for.
Should the Blazers go after Chris Paul in general?
It seems obvious, but you'd be surprised how much people can over-think this. The answer is YES. You can speculate on fit and chemistry and even injuries (the latter of which is the most legit concern) but when you have the chance to get a Hall-of-Famer with prime years left in his career all of that goes out the window. The opportunity is so rare that you don't question, you just do it. That kind of player could make an exponential difference in your team's production. That kind of player still has sky-high value even if he doesn't work out with your squad. This trade is unlike any other that's been seriously considered over the past few years. Normal rules do not apply. In the most general sense, if you have the chance to get Chris Paul you get him.
Under what conditions would a trade make sense?
There's one automatic scenario from a talent/roster standpoint: if the Hornets will accept any package that leaves Portland's core of Roy, Aldridge, Oden, and Batum untouched. I cannot imagine this scenario actually coming about. But if New Orleans really valued the expiring contracts of Miller and Przybilla plus whatever other young talented they wanted plus however many draft picks they wanted from the Blazers (or if their entire management staff got really drunk) you do that deal immediately, no questions asked. If Chris Paul failed a physical you'd still do it. It's a slam dunk.
The more likely scenario involves those assets plus one of the members of that core. The rule should be this: you happily make a deal involving Batum or Aldridge IF Paul will agree to sign an immediate extension. Either Aldridge or Batum will have value for a long time, on the court or in trade. Paul's contract runs two more years. It's quite possible (my gut says likely) that one of those years will be completely or partially locked out. That leaves just one full season for Paul to get acclimated to Portland. If his goal in moving is to win a title, it's unlikely that he will have succeeded in just that one season. Where does that leave Portland when his contract is up? What's to keep him with the Blazers as opposed to a proven championship team or a bigger market? If you're going to say heartfelt loyalty and loving the environment, talk to the people in New Orleans about how much those are binding him these days. The same people who are advising him to switch teams now will have no qualms about advising him to switch teams again. The Blazers might be able to keep him but it's not guaranteed they would. It doesn't make sense to trade a long-term value player for a short-term value player if the outcome isn't a title within that short term. Thus the extension.
Side Note: Aldridge hasn't been mentioned much in potential deals because the Hornets probably wouldn't have direct interest in him and he's a BYC player this year. But if you could concoct a three-team deal that included him but not the other three it'd probably make sense for the Blazers to part with him. Marcus Camby can play power forward in the near future and you can find another forward through the draft or in free agency. Serviceable power forwards are common and that's about what you'd need with a full-flowered, Paul-led Blazer team.
If the Hornets insisted upon two of Portland's core players the answer would probably be no, as the risk is multiplied. In fact if the Hornets insisted upon Greg Oden at all you'd have to say no unless the team has completely given up on him, as his rebounding and defense would be key to Paul's success. Even with Emeka Okafor coming back that would be a tough move, though you'd be OK if you didn't believe in Oden's future. (Well...that and keeping both Oden and Okafor on the same roster would involve serious duplication of talent and exorbitant salary, which we'll discuss next.) Including Brandon Roy would make the move look lateral and is also a no unless you're concerned about his long-term durability. But then you're probably concerned about Paul's as well.
This is one of the reasons a trade will be tricky. The Blazers are all but forced to give up pieces they don't want to lose or face untenable depth problems and/or overlapping risk points...namely injuries. Even the ideal moves leave a messy, expensive overall roster with health vulnerability. But the tantalizing promise of just the top five of that roster might make a deal worthwhile.
What kind of financial impact would Paul have on this team?
It'd be serious. This may be one of the long-term bars to the trade getting done. Let's say the dream scenario happened and Portland traded expiring contracts and young guys for Paul. Within a couple years they'd have Roy and Paul maxed out, Aldridge at near max, plus Oden and Batum with hefty raises. It'd be an awe-inspiring starting five but the Blazers could easily spend $65+ million on those players alone. The era of the $80-100 million team would return. Is that lineup guaranteed a championship or two to justify that money in this new, fiscally-tight era? Perhaps the new CBA would eliminate predecessor contracts and bring that number down. But that's a provision the owners are going to have a hard time winning. More likely the lower contract numbers would be set from the new CBA forward, leaving teams with old contracts up the creek. I'd love to see Portland get a chance to test the championship-worthiness of that lineup but it had better work if they try it.
And then there's Emeka Okafor's contract. That would be the sweetener inducing the Hornets to make the deal. That runs between $11.5 and $14.5 million for the next four years. Trading away Camby, Przybilla, Miller, and some youngsters would make the books balance this year but the hit on the pocketbook over the next three would be pain...ful. You'd be blowing almost $80 million on your top six players by 2012-13.
Even with one of those contracts going off the books in trade the financial risk would still be high. It may not worry fans, but it would probably keep Paul Allen and the Vulcans up at night when considering a deal like this.
What kind of on-court impact would Paul have on this team?
Almost as striking as the financial impact. This guy is MVP-level amazing. He shoots near 50% from the field. He shot 40% from the arc last year. He hits free throws. He provide another clear, daunting scoring option, executable from any range, which would free up the rest of the court for everyone else. His offensive threat alone would make every teammate look better on offense. That's not even counting his double-digit assist average. He's a good defender at point. More to the point, with that much firepower in the backcourt Portland would be free to play any combinations they wanted up front. Want to go Oden-Camby for a while? Okafor-Cunningham? Stack all the defense you'd like in the frontcourt because the offense won't suffer that much...at least not compared to what currently happens. Portland's bigs would be tasked with defending and rebounding. With the board-work assured the team could finally get out and run as well...a necessity if you're going to take full advantage of Paul's gifts. I'm hard-pressed to think of a single significant downside to having Paul in the lineup. He even has the all-important superstar quality of two first names! That's exactly why Portland fans shouldn't have any qualms about the Millers, Przybillas, or maybe even the Batums of the world going the other way in trade. (Though that last one makes my heart hurt.)
Would this team contend with Paul, providing only one of the core guys was lost?
Yes...as long as the Blazers got more than one year out of him. If he's gone after the new CBA the Blazers are going to have a hard time overcoming the hole his departure would leave.
Will this trade happen?
I'm more ready to believe than I have been at any time before but I still think not. I'd guess the option is being hotly explored and the conversation kept mum at Blazers HQ. But ultimately Portland will need the right combination of talent sent in exchange, the right assurances from Paul, and the right financial numbers to make this work. Any one of those would be difficult. Getting all three to match is like fitting a broken-backed camel through the eye of a needle in a haystack. I'll be impressed if they can get it done.
The non-Paul-related questions are next. Send any mailbag queries to blazersub@yahoo.com and please put "Mailbag" somewhere in the subject line to make it easier for me to sort mail.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Ooh, I hadn't even thought about the financial aspect. That is pretty scary.
Nice encompassing look, Dave. I think you summed up the Blazers’ fanbase views pretty well, especially re: Oden (which non-Blazers fans seem to not understand or know about).
One thing: I believe Storyteller said that Paul can’t sign an extension until 3 years after his last extension was signed (aka 7/9/11).
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Yeah, they can't really even ask if he'll sign with us... a handshake deal is illegal.
Obviously they’d try to do it all in private but there is no way to sign him till my mom’s birthday in 2011, like Austinpwnz sez.
EVEN SO, just get him. We get CP3 and still have Oden and Roy on the roster, we are going to the finals next season. Guaransheed. He is such an amazing player and would get sooooo much out of Oden and LMA and make Roy’s life so easy.
Our dedicated fanbase, our owner who will spend lots, and the huge success we’ll have on the court, should be enough to keep CP3. Anything can go wrong, as we’ve seen in the past, but health permitting we will be an incredible team.
More than worth trying as long as Oden and Roy don’t go out in the trade. Totally.
Mortimer
#52
Agreed.
Our dedicated fanbase, our owner who will spend lots, and the huge success we’ll have on the court, should be enough to keep CP3.
Plus, he’ll make more money with us than any other team out there. I really can’t see Paul moving to another team after being exposed to Rose Garden going nuts during a WCF game against the lakers. We won over Camby and I’d be surprised if we don’t win over Paul.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
That said
if the Blazers were looking to unhitch themselves from Oden, this would be the way to do it.
—Dave
What does that Rich Cho chart on microfracture surgery followed by patellar fracture say?
Lots of talk about Okafor’s deal being expensive, but at least he has been on the court. Oden could be expensive and in street clothes based on his history.
Being on the court consistently is great for the regular season
In the playoffs, he’d still just be an above average center who won’t ever have a chance at being better than Gasol/Bynum, or good enough to kill the Heat. We’d have to hope Oden’s body parts stop falling off enough for a good playoff run.
Uncle Morty
#52
Are you talking Okafor here?
because Oden projects much better than above average – he would create matchup problems for Gasol/Bynum….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Yuh, talkin' Okafor`
I am a strong believer in Oden’s potential.
If healthy, he will be the best two-way center in the NBA. If healthy.
M—
#52
The Blazers are more likely to win a championship with Roy + Oden + ok PG than they are with Roy + Paul + ok center.
So no way you trade Oden even if it means not getting Paul.
But if you have Paul, Roy, and Oden then you can get to the finals regularly. Therefore, you trade LMA or Batum plus anything else it takes except Roy to get Paul+Okafor (NO won’t do the deal without getting rid of Okafor).
LMA’s BYC status is no problem in a trade for Paul and Okafor because NO is sending out more than $26M and can therefore take back more than $33M, which easily absorbs the $5M difference between LMA’s outgoing and incoming BYC salaries.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 2:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Part of the problem is
Can we add up enough salaries to get Okafor and CP3? I especially don’t think they’d want LMA’s deal for it’s length, and how he duplicates David West.
I agree with the rest. It’s how I feel. I want what gives us a shot at winning it all, not just be a really good team.
Since I think NOLA wants promising youth on rookie deals and expiring contracts (so, not LMA), I don’t think we got enough salary wise to match Okafor and CP3’s huge deals. A 3rd team would have to be included I think.
M—
#52
I think
Camby 11 million
Miller 7 million
Joel 7 million
gets it done without giving up Oden or Batum.
Can I get an Armon?
Ah ah ah ah ah I was being dumb
Yeah, sounds right.
I’d almost feel bad and would force them to take Batum just so they can look themselves in the mirror.
M—
#52
and Rudy
there are several pieces you can fit in a Miller/Prz/Camby type of trade….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
we are not the front runner
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5405528
We are the dark horse, you do not get the deal as the dark horse by trading away 90 year old players and a towel boy. Batum is the least that would HAVE to go to get him, it has nothing to do with salary and everything to do with NO not wanting to gut their team for this trade. More than likely they want batum and oden or batum with LMA…and frankly, ugh…
Geriatric Dunk Squad!
1/4/10 - Juwan Howard dunks on Chris Kaman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTkOqDgLb6s
3/7/10 - Andre Miller Tomahawk jams on the Denver Nuggets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-JVgm7F1QA
4/12/10 - Marcus Camby drops 30 and 13 on OKC to cement 50 wins. http://www.nba.com/blazers/media/camby_chant_041310.mp3
by Eat Politicians on Jul 25, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
my post didn't have anything to do with want
but the asking price isn’t set by NO – its set by the competition in the trade….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
e.g. it's an auction
and sellers can only set a minimum bid in an auction. If NO sets Oden + Batum + consideration as a price, good luck. No one else can come close to that.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
they can always pimp slap paul
and tell him to shut up and sit on the bench…
Geriatric Dunk Squad!
1/4/10 - Juwan Howard dunks on Chris Kaman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTkOqDgLb6s
3/7/10 - Andre Miller Tomahawk jams on the Denver Nuggets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-JVgm7F1QA
4/12/10 - Marcus Camby drops 30 and 13 on OKC to cement 50 wins. http://www.nba.com/blazers/media/camby_chant_041310.mp3
by Eat Politicians on Jul 25, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
You want a dime?
There’s your dime, pally-boy!
Is you texting with Portland? I axed you a question, earner! Now is you, or is you ain’t, texting with that punk Cho? No, I though not. Daddy’d get real mad if you was…
Stealth > Wealth
again
I’m sure the competition has more to offer than that…
Geriatric Dunk Squad!
1/4/10 - Juwan Howard dunks on Chris Kaman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTkOqDgLb6s
3/7/10 - Andre Miller Tomahawk jams on the Denver Nuggets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-JVgm7F1QA
4/12/10 - Marcus Camby drops 30 and 13 on OKC to cement 50 wins. http://www.nba.com/blazers/media/camby_chant_041310.mp3
by Eat Politicians on Jul 25, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
no
only Orlando can compete with Portland straight up – and they have as many complications as we do….
No one else gets in on the action unless Orlando and Portland decline to bid….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, Monte can't be too entranced
With one year of Vince and two of Jameer. Although Gortat might interest them. Somewhat.
Our ace in the hole is Batum- you know Monte wants him. Badly.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it would be best for Monty to say "screw this". Tell Paul that if CP3 goes to PDX
he will be his head coach.
This way CP3, Monty and Batum will all be together.
I think Cho will find a way to get it done.
I agree with your "ugh"
I don’t seem to be as hyped on CP as some, and am admittedly not familiar with his game, but I would not go beyond Batum from the “core”, and if that is not enough, fine with me.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
think of the best player in the league at his position
SG-Kobe
SF-James
PF-Duncan
C-Howard
the best PG in the league is Paul. Thats the level of talent we are talking. I dont know that I would trade Oden, but if they asked for Batum and LMA I would drive them to the airport myself.
OJ Mayo is the Blazers' PG of the Future
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 25, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
is agent will be working backchannel
just look at what we’ve heard about Rudy’s agent, calling around and telling teams not to bother if they don’t have a big role for him, etc
Dave and others have laid out the real concern, how long will CP3 stick around. If his agent “says the right things” to the Blazers (or whoever) they’ll feel better about putting enough talent together to outbid the other teams. But if Paul’s agent tells Portland (or whoever) not to bother, because he’s not likely to sign an extension with them when the time comes, then they’re simply not going to commit the resources that will be necessary to acquire him
The potential teams are going to be weeded out by this kind of “negotiation” and it’s already begun, at least if you believe Broussard’s reports
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
But but but WorldWide Wes said he could deliver him free house...
And now we need to talk to that stupid agent?
agree on the backchannel
but I have to think that if Paul puts the Blazers on his wish list that he would sign an extension here.
Can I get an Armon?
shadow of a doubt
If all goes well, that’s probably true. But suppose CP3, Roy and company the Blazers don’t reach the conference finals? A million things can happen, and the lockout is just one of them
I’m not as concerned with Chris as with his new agent, who is seeing dollar signs just like LeGarie did, last year. Paul may think that it would be cool to play with Roy and LMA and have a chance to win 60 games and reach the finals, but his rep is probably thinking “Dang, Portland—really? Besides Nike what do they have out there that I can sell?”
This is where Larry Miller and Paul Allen have to show their business and marketing acumen, and it’s ironic that the 2 guys who “ran KP out of town” last month are going to have to spin things so CP3 and his agent think that they can generate extra-salary worldwide endorsement revenue playing at a very remote NBA outpost
It’s not impossible…but there is a reason why the Blazers haven’t had many real superstars over the years, it’s sure not because their owner is cheap
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Location means very little in this day and age as long as you are successful
Cleveland is not exactly the hub of the world and LeBron had no problem making money with endorsements from there. New Orleans is not the big market. Heck, Tiger Woods made millions playing in major entertainment centers like Augusta, Georgia. 11 months out of 12, you can watch rabbits and gators say goodnight to each other there. And when it matters, TV crews and fans will still be there to report about you.
A full Rose Garden would make Paul look good on TV on enough nights.
So you're saying the marketing opportunities in Portland Oregon for a pro athlete rival NYC?
Sorry, but I’m not buying it. There are always going to be more eyes watching the product on the east coast, and more units sold there than here. The internet has helped make the world smaller, but everyone still needs to find partners to do business with, and there’s a lot more of them (with serious money to invest) on the east coast than in the pacific NW
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
But you don't actually have to live there
And those people can all afford private jets, or first class tickets, to go wherever the event is or where they are needed. Even Larry Bird and Danny Granger who aren’t exactly known for squandering money or being on a terribly rich team flew to the draft lottery in a private jet (I’ve seen the video that Granger posted). Dwyane Wade was on late night shows filmed in cities he doesn’t live in. And film crews come wherever you want them to come. Dirk just had all his main sponsors fly their advertising production guys to Hamburg and Berlin to have new spots filmed because he spent his holidays in Greece and Germany. And NY has only attracted one star athlete this summer with that “you need to live in the big city” pitch: Amar’e, who was already his own little brand business out Phoenix before the move and just likes the city life. You might also count Boozer to Chicago. The Miami Big 3 were not attracted by Miami being a media capital, but by the potential to play with each other and maybe the nightlife, weather and taxes.
I don’t think Portland has any built-in advantage, but it’s not terrible, and Paul isn’t reported to be the big city guy who needs to hit the clubs and movie premieres every night. Greg & Co seem to manage a little Vegas and LA around their schedule fine from PDX.
There was even a NYT article about how much more meaningless for the salary and extra revenue of an athlete or entertainer it has become where they are, only I can’t find the link right now.
Paul isn’t reported to be the big city guy who needs to hit the clubs and movie premieres every night.
This is good to hear. Again, I’m more concerned about Paul’s agent feeling that he can’t score enough endorsements for Chris if Paul is way out in the NW backwater of the NBA than about Paul’s opinion of the Portland nightlife.
Private jet or no private jet, CP3’s travel time from Dallas to either coast has got to be superior to PDX.
I think it’s going to come down to Larry Miller’s Nike background, he’s marketed the Air Jordan brand and he talks the language that WWW and CP3’s new agent are used to hearing. Larry also knows that to get the Blazer brand out there around the globe, he really needs a superstar like CP3, and it doesn’t hurt that the product on the floor should improve with Chris running point, either. Or that Paul Allen is itching to make a big splash and catapult the team deep into the playoffs
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
"Can we add up enough salaries to get Okafor and CP3?"
.
Pick one: All of these work for Paul+Okafor
Miller, Przy, Camby
Miller, Przy, LMA, Batum
Miller, Przy, LMA, Bayless
Miller, Przy, LMA, Rudy
Miller, Przy, LMA, Babbitt
Miller, Przy, LMA, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Miller, Przy, Batum, Bayless, Rudy, Babbitt, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Miller, Camby, LMA
Miller, Camby, Batum, Bayless
Miller, Camby, Batum, Rudy, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Miller, Camby, Batum, Babbitt, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Miller, Camby, Bayless, Rudy
Miller, Camby, Bayless, Babbitt
Miller, Camby, Rudy, Babbitt, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Przy, Camby, LMA
Przy, Camby, Batum, Bayless
Przy, Camby, Batum, Rudy, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Przy, Camby, Batum, Babbitt, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Przy, Camby, Bayless, Rudy
Przy, Camby, Bayless, Babbitt
Przy, Camby, Bayless, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Przy, Camby, Rudy, Babbitt, Cunningham (or Pendergraph)
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I can't understand why the Blazers don't wait...
for C3PO’s Free Agency. It looks like Camby, Miller and Paul’s contracts all run out around the same time (Storyteller?), so why not try to scoop him up then, avoiding Okafur’s bloated contract and ensuring that Paul actually wants to be a Blazer?
I know everybody wants rings now, but two years isn’t too long to wait. By then, we’ll have a better idea of what we’ve got and what we need.
Stealth > Wealth
because we will have no flexibility thanks to Roy (14ish/yr) Aldridge (13ish/yr) Matthews (7/yr) and possible big money deals for Batum and Oden.
Okay, but Camby and Miller are close to 18 million combined, and there’s the EuroStashes to be waived. Is that not enough to cover those salaries and Paul?
Stealth > Wealth
Still be over the cap with likely Oden and Batum extensions, and we have no clue how the next CBA would turn out.
Even if we somehow worked the magic and get below the cap, Paul would not sign here. If you haven’t noticed, Portland isn’t a really a free agency hot spot. However, we have been known to win over the guys we traded for thanks to the fans and Paul Allen’s assets.
Even against all this, the best reason is this: You don’t want to waste two prime years of both Roy and Paul, do you? Roy isn’t exactly a healthy warrior that we can expect to be good well into his 30’s. Even if he was, why spend those two years in baking the cake when Paul makes u an immediate contender?
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
WASTE!?!
Pardon me, but I do not think a moment spent in a Blazer uniform is wasted, championship or no.
Also, if Paul wouldn’t sign here, why do we want him? Maybe I’m alone on this, but I’m only interested in players that want to be Blazers. Besides that, how do you know he wouldn’t sign with us? If he wants to play with the Portland core, this is his opportunity to do so. Any viable trade to bring him now basically involves dismantling that core, whereas a couple years down the line he could play with all of them.
Stealth > Wealth
Because Paul has said his first choice is Magic? (and probably the Knicks after that)
Also, it’s no secret that NBA players prefer to play in the sunny states, as well as ones with legacy? Why do u think free agents take discount to play in LA all the time? Couple that with no state tax in Florida, of course guys like Paul would rather play for Orlando if given a chance.
We’d be fielding a very poor team if we only signed and traded for guys where Portland is a first choice. It’s no secret that Portland isn’t an ideal destination for most NBA players…no matter what indignation you feel about it, it’s best to keep that in mind. Remember, even Camby didn’t want to be traded to us from the lowly Clippers.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
We have the legacy...
not orlando. just thought i’d put that out there…
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno if Portland has a real serious legacy in the minds of NBA players.
None more than Sacramento or sumthin’.
We ain’t won a title since before most NBA players were born, have had some more-recent playoff awfulness, and we’re still a young good team who hasn’t made it out of the 1st round.
I don’t think a NBA player would have a special reason to come to Portland based on our legacy.
M—
#52
I think they remember Clyde and Porter
if for no other reason than as the counter balance to Jordan. (albeit a poor one) and i think perhaps that 2000 collapse we all remember so clearly… but for the reasons of the rise of Kobe. NBA players know we have more tradition than Orlando, but playing with the best Center in the league is more appealing than tradition. Big Cities, big players, big money… people my age always seem to undervalue tradition… just a simple fact.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I think most of today's players are too young to really remember the early 90s teams
They know of Clyde, he’s a legend, but I doubt they really remember those teams.
Chris Paul woulda’ been 6 years old in 1991, for example. And I doubt he paid attention to the Portland team back then.
Plus, most pro athletes are notorious front runners. Even our Brandon Roy grew up a Laker fan, despite growing up in the shadow of the Space Needle. Pro athletes often like the teams that win. We were good, but we didn’t win it all, and the little victories (going to the WCF) are only remembered by us, the fans.
Mortimer
#52
I was being a little facetious anyhow
Portland’s basketball culture is unique in its intensity/population ratio. But I think it is true that few players who are wanted to stay don’t also want to stay….
First, though – you have to get them here.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions
heretic
Portland has a championship in the last 40 years, went to two finals in three years less than 20 years ago….
Sacramento has hardly been a city, that long….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree about not wanting to waste two Roy and Paul years
Neither guy has any meniscus left, and bone-on-bone is a certainty, whether it’s sooner or later.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
actually the modern 'scoping
leaves some, sometimes even most, of the meniscus left as they merely remove the torn section. This is not as quick a death to a career as it once was…
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
No, it's not a death knell (like it used to be)
But Roy had some bone-on-bone when he played in the playoffs last year, so it IS a concern.
I think he’s about out of meniscus, though, while Paul still has some left.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
reportedly it was a very small tear
and thats why he healed so fast… of course i could be wrong, it wasnt like i was doing the ’scope.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
He healed so fast
because he already had had the surgery before, and so they didn’t have to make new cuts to get at it.
I think (maybe making it up) that they said he has little or no meniscus left after this last operation.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I remember reading that
But no clue where.. But I also think I remember them trying to spin it as a benefit and not being about to wrap my head around how it could be a good thing…
"At 49, I can say something I never would have said when I was a player, that I'm a better person because of my failures and disgraces." -- Bill Walton
by MischiefPortland on Jul 26, 2010 2:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Paul will get a max contract. If the CBA rules stayed the same,
we’d end up paying Oden and Batum $20M+. Even if Camby, Miller, and Joel leave that’s only $25M and we are currently around $16M+ over the cap without the Euro holds. So we would still be $11M over the cap and we’d need to be $17M under the cap to sign Paul. So roughly speaking that’s a difference of about $28M (give or take a few $M for a back of the envelope calculation) we’d need to shed. The new CBA will probably make it even harder (if that were possible).
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
sign and trade becomes a possibility at that point
and that would give quite a bit more leverage to us than we have now… look at what cleveland and toronto got back… just booby prizes.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
sign and trade who?
Paul isnt a free agent… hes already under contract and cant sign an extension yet. Oden and Batum are on our team sooo I am not following what you mean.
"At 49, I can say something I never would have said when I was a player, that I'm a better person because of my failures and disgraces." -- Bill Walton
by MischiefPortland on Jul 26, 2010 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions
^^ You can also substitute Williams for Batum in any of those deals, but NO would want Batum of course.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd sign up for any of 'em
Can we trade the draft picks yet? Ain’t there some waiting period now that we signed ’em?
M—
#52
We only have to wait 30 days after signing the draft picks (and they signed a couple weeks ago)
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:19 AM PDT up reply actions
WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR THEN?!?!
Cho is really dropping the ball, I mean I swear… DO SOMETHING already ya crum bum!
Mortimer
#52
He's probably already banking on it!
The lazy dolt! He already traded for CP3 in one of his fancy computer simulations and forgot to do it in real life!
CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO [shaking fist]
Get him off of World of Warcraft and onto the phones!
M—
#52
He's kidding Nats
It’s Morty, c’mon now.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
It worked for Kevin McHale.
Remember the study of NBA GMs a few years ago that showed that the “best” GM in the previous ten years was McHale? That was due almost entirely to his drafting of KG.
If Cho lands CP3, the door to the GM Hall of Fame will swing wide open.
maybe with a *healthy* Oden who reaches his potential
and while Aldridge’s BYC isn’t the problem, his large contract and duplication of West’s skill set is a problem for the Hornets.
Can I get an Armon?
NO can trade West or LMA for a nice player.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:46 AM PDT up reply actions
LaMarcus has no place in any CP3 deal.
West is an All-Star, LA is not. Similar games and contracts, though LA is a BYC player and is being paid more. There’s not much difference in age, both are starters, etc. If LA is part of the deal, NO has to trade West as part of that or a different deal.
West is an all-star because he played with CP3
Hes not really an all-star… just a step above lamarcus… that step being ‘plays next to a great PG’
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmmm, I see it as
LMA and West being equal, but without CP3 it’s not even a debate.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
unhitching from oden is something important to "consider"
anyone who researches what happens to giants who have had foot/leg injuries can only come away with one conclusion. more often than not more injuries follow, or a player has markedly less mobility. best case scenario is you get a mcdyess or ilgaukas type of result where players can have serviceable careers.
love the potential of oden, but one has to look at the reality of these type of injuries to 7 footers. pryzibilla is in same boat, and maybe worse though less mobility probably doesn’t damage him as much because expectations are so much lower.
any trade that costs you camby in the face of that might be scary. i actually like okafor as a player, though he is way overpaid. seems like he would be a decent guy in the community as well. most of the posters here are pretty negative on him, though.
though the numbers haven’t been crunched yet a trade that sends miller, pryzibilla, aldridge,and batum for paul and okafor (assuming NO demands okafor included) had to be looked at hard. how do you guarantee that paul resigns~~that is the real issue and would ultimated by the deal killer for me.
by utahcoyote on Jul 25, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
My understanding is that Paul can not extend his contract until next off-season. Info courtesy of Storyteller.
Lots of risk considering the lockout. I hadn’t considered a potentially lost season there. If we can give up the expiring contracts and some combination of Batum, Bayless and Rudy… I think you have to pull the trigger even with the risk.
Correct, Paul cannot extend until next summer
He signed his last extension 2 years ago. He has a year to go.
Further details at Larry Coon’s FAQ.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Jul 25, 2010 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Also, he can't sign next Summer if there is a lockout.
A lockout would start at the same moment Portland would otherwise be able to start negotiations.
This is my understanding as well
I’m a tad surprised the article didn’t address, explain, or debunk this… It is the biggest factor why I’m hesitant about any trade involving Paul. Well… any trade involving any of our core…
"At 49, I can say something I never would have said when I was a player, that I'm a better person because of my failures and disgraces." -- Bill Walton
by MischiefPortland on Jul 25, 2010 2:21 AM PDT up reply actions
It's a common misconception
Even Dave, who I would consider one of the smartest people I “know”, especially out of NBA writers, didn’t realize that you can’t sign him till his current contract actually runs out.
I think because it happens all the time in other sports, people kinda assume it’s possible in the NBA. I wish it was, because it does make trading for CP3 much riskier than it seems on the surface.
M—
#52
Well...
if the lockout doesn’t last until 6/30/12, he can sign an extension before his current deal runs out. He just can’t sign one now….
I don't think I would enjoy next season...
If they made the trade. It would be very hard to get attached to Paul as a fan, knowing he can walk away if the situation doesn’t suit him. I have no desire to see the Blazers empty the shelf only to watch him walk away and leave us to endure another round of rebulding years.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
by tssbro on Jul 25, 2010 12:10 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 2 recs
I'm quite certain I would enjoy next season...
It’s the off season 2 years from now that could be tough to swallow. Dave says assurances can be broken. That is true, but some strongly worded assurances would go a long way in a situation like this.
I'd also enjoy the next two seasons
Verbal assurances, however, don’t mean a thing. How could you trust a verbal assurance from a guy trying to slip out of a 62 million dollar written one?
I think the best chances of keeping him would be contending for a championship. It’s hard to see that not happening if we got him through a favorable trade.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Jul 25, 2010 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Verbal assurances are no guarantee...
But silence about an extension would speak volumes. I’d rather empty promises than a clear signal that “The Decision II” was coming.
by 52therim on Jul 25, 2010 1:16 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't worry about Paul re-signing
because with him, we would be in the Western Conference finals each season. That’s all any player who wants to play for a contender can reasonably expect.
It would help if y’all could hold-back some of that endless rain, clouds, and drizzle until after he re-signs. And cut some of those trees, they’re blocking the view.
It all depends on what they have to give up
Fans are throwing just about anybody in the mix as long as we get him. I think it would be a shame to gut the team only to see him walk away even if they make it to the WCF.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
by tssbro on Jul 25, 2010 3:14 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I have to think that Blazers management won't give away the store to get Paul.
We have the option of not taking Paul and (rolls the dice) becoming a contender anyway if GO and Brandon stay healthy.
We give up our centers plus batum
I dont think we make the playoffs even with CP3 + Roy + LMA. Miami might get bumped in the first round next year because they can’t find the right pieces to place around their stars…. who are mostly offensive weapons (okay, yes Miller is an elite defender). I just think if the weaknesses are glaring in this day and age, someone will exploit it, and you will go down because of it.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
And don't forget that Paul Allen
Is the absolute best when it comes to providing First Class accommodations and travel. That’s gotta be some kind of incentive, right?
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
That's not high on the totem pole of reasons why players like certain teams, I would think.
Doesn’t every team do that now anyway?
As far as I know
Allen and Cuban are the two owners who far and away spoil their players.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions
My lack of a life
Is matched only by my lack of motivation.
So I’m out as well.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 26, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Then you're probably not a fan of basketball
The only thing I regret is that trout and marty won’t be on the end of fantastic alley oop passes. The only thing Dave’s post doesn’t mention is the possibility that CP WOULD want to stay here if he does what we think he will: compete for the title every year. I don’t see how we wouldn’t be in the best 4 teams in the NBA for the next 4-5 years with ANY lineup with CP, Roy, LMA.
slimkim
Maybe
It’s a risk that some are willing to take. I think the possibility of him leaving lowers his value in the trade. There are lots of combinations that I have seen that I like but I would hope the Blazers don’t put all their eggs in CP’s basket only to watch him take his basket to NY or Orlando in two years.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
by tssbro on Jul 25, 2010 3:20 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Nicely put Dave
I would also like to hear weigh in on what the Monty effect would be. assuming NO looks to move Paul, do you think his being the new head coach improves or harms portlands chances of trading for Paul in terms of the Portland trade pieces. Any of the tradable pieces he is more likely to want other than Batum? Any players he would advise NO to pass on, like Rudy or Dre for their playing time/starting demands?
by Doctorblazer on Jul 25, 2010 12:14 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
I can't imagine Monty has much say in the matter
All he can do is make the case for Paul being a great player. Management knows how good he is without Monty there to tell them. They’re probably more concerned about the team’s financial outlook, as well as what the team will look like in a few years after Paul walks.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Jul 25, 2010 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Monty provides insider knowledge...
…of Blazers trade pieces. And, hence, some peace of mind to NO if they pull the trigger.
It’s like buying a used car when you know and trust the previous owner.
by peregrinebrm on Jul 25, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Monty could influence NO thinking if...
if he felt that Batum was over-rated. I doubt that is the case, but it might push the GM in the direction of an Orlando deal that could include players that have had greater success than the young pieces the Blazers might offer.
I am pretty much on the same page
I put a little more value on Aldridge than Dave does here but other than that…
I think I could deal with Batum going, but i just worry when you start offing starting PFs and Centers of the caliber we have…
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
by PDXBuckeye on Jul 25, 2010 12:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I am amazed at this quote...
“In fact if the Hornets insisted upon Greg Oden at all you’d have to say no unless the team has completely given up on him, as his rebounding and defense would be key to Paul’s success. Even with Emeka Okafor coming back that would be a tough move, though you’d be OK if you didn’t believe in Oden’s future.”
Really? Oden has a chance to be a great player. Maybe one day, if everything goes right, he’ll be as impactful a player as Chris Paul. I don’t have to think it’s time to cut bait on Oden to agree to a swap of him for Paul, especially when one of the mandatory terms of the deal is that the Hornets also want to send a replacement big back.
It’s also worth mentioning that a deal centered around Batum requires you to trade all kinds of players you might not want to, because his contract is so tiny and the Hornets require you to take back Okafor as well.
I know it’s painful to trade a former #1 draft pick, and I believe that Oden has a chance to be an all star in the future, but this is a top 10 NBA player in his prime and you have to give to get.
I think it is a very reasonable comment from Dave...
I also think it is a reasonable comment that you make. The opinions on GO are all over the board. Many adhere to the mantra “don’t trade bigs for smalls”. At some point the Blazers are going to have to decide how much to pay Greg. It is very likely that if we allow him to become a RFA, he will get a large offer. If the team is unready to offer Greg an extension this off-season, fears losing Greg next season, fears even more greatly matching a large offer sheet only to have Greg’s injury history continue… and if they could turn GO into a top-tier PG now while they have other options at Center… they just might see things your way.
Or they might believe you don’t trade quality bigs for smalls.
To me it ain't about "ya don't trade bigs for small"
I don’t think that’s really it… ya just don’t wanna trade Greg Oden for the guy that would be amazing with Greg Oden.
And ya don’t wanna trade the guy who could be the best at his position, at the most difficult position to find. Now, I know CP3 is the best PG playing now (and it ain’t even close), just by the limitations of being a perimeter player who is so small he is inherently easier to stop than a 7 foot efficient beast.
Oden is still a huge question mark but was playing very well during that stretch.
I would say the Hornettes can have anything or anyone they want aside from Oden. CP3 + Oden = Automatic WCF and likely Finals. CP3 + Roy + Solid Bigs = Lots has to still go right. But we’d be a great regular season team still.
It’s nuthin’ to do about cliched sayings… it’s just for this specific situation.
Morty
#52
So how do you see negotiations on a new Oden contract going?
Are we even going to offer Greg an extension this summer? I assume we are, but his agent is possibly going to want more than is justified considerinr g the injury risk. Does PA just sign the check? I doiubt it. Then lets assume he misses less than 10 games, plays r well, and gets a near max or max offer next year? Do we match it? The team has to answer that question now before Oden is off the table in any trade scenarios. People who might claim to know the answer to that are either named Cho or PA or are making assumptions. Do we really know that NO would be willing to extend Oden under that scenario? If not, they wont even want him.
by 52therim on Jul 25, 2010 6:35 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it will solve itself
I doubt the Blazers will offer something Oden’s camp will accept this summer, and I doubt what Oden’s camp wants will be accepted by the Blazers— and both got valid reasons. Oden was doing allstar level production, so his side would wanna be paid close to that, while the Blazers will rightfully say he’s been hurt most of his time as a Blazer.
So, what I see happening, is we don’t sign him and if Oden plays like he should if healthy, he earns himself a good contract from us. The only way I see another team throwing big money that we won’t match at Oden is if he has a relatively injury free season— and if he has an injury free season, he’ll have had a good season.
And we’d be signing him already.
I don’t mind it going to RFA, even though I’m a huge Oden believer, because it’s better for both parties.
Morty
#52
My biggest worry about Oden is that the injury will set him back to 2008 levels of effectiveness.
Just by being rusty and lacking confidence in the knee.
It's a lot easier to come back from this injury (simple broken bone) than the extensive recovery time from micro
He should have more than enough time to train with Bayno again this summer, like last summer, and be ready before training camp.
He might be rusty; I am not an expert. But from what I understand it shouldn’t be much of a problem. It wasn’t that bad of an injury, just a lengthy one. Nothing ripped, no tears, “just” a broken bone. I agree he has to learn to trust it but a good summer of hard work will hopefully go a long way towards that.
Even if he comes back ready to go, I know all of us fans will be holding our breath with his health for a long time.
Morty
#52
And if he came back and had a "building confidence" year, we'd have to suffer through endless "bust trolls" again.
Which have far less to do with boobies than I am comfortable with.
Perhaps you are joking, but otherwise who cares what trolls say?
Would you rather trade him away and then he becomes an 8 time all-star and leads another team to a championship? What will the trolls say then?
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL, no, not at all.
I don’t want Oden traded. I’m just gearing up for my own worst case scenario (short of an actual injury of course).
those trolls (like Simmons) have reduced Greg's trade value
it’s going to take playing (and dominating) in some actual NBA games before Oden will be held in the same regard as he was in the past. And even then, there are still going to be doubts about his durability for quite some time. (We read enough of that apprehension from fans on this website, and we’re supposed to be “biased” in favor of #52!)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
He should have more than enough time to train with Bayno again this summer, like last summer, and be ready before training camp.
Billy was interviewed down in Vegas and said that Greg had mastered all of the moves that the 2 of them had worked on last summer, right before he was injured again. Bayno didn’t think that he and Oden would need nearly as much time to refresh those skills (he said something like “Greg’s already got all of those moves down, in his memory”) It was encouraging to hear
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Nice
I never saw that. That is good to hear.
A few months/several weeks should be enough time. I have faith in Bayno, as he’s a great development coach who players love and work hard for. The results last season with Oden spoke for itself.
Like I always say, if he can just be allowed to play some basketball by whoever controls these things, it’ll work out great. He’s got too much goodness— huge body, great touch and hands, good passer, can shoot FTs, was the best shotblocker last season and an elite rebounder… just ain’t fair if he can’t be healthy.
So whoever decides these things, God, whoever… let the kid play some basketball.
Mortimer
#52
I think David Stern decides these things
And he obviously doesn’t like the Blazers.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
that's why the Blazers need to extend Greg this fall
because if they go into the CBA with Oden’s contract status still up in the air, Stern will figure out a way to change the rules so Portland doesn’t have Oden’s Bird rights anymore, and he’ll be off to a large market
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We have to be very careful
That Stern doesn’t find out we know what he’s doing, or they’ll be the Seattle TrailBlazers before you can blink.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 25, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
That's a concern of mine too.
I don’t know how long it will take him physically and mentally to recover from nearly a year of rehab. But as long as he eventually (i.e. even if it took a year) recovers to last year’s effectiveness, I can wait. I haven’t seen an opinion that this will permanently reduce his abilities, but if that were true then it would be a different story.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Physically, it shouldn't be a long term injury
It’d be different if there were any ripping.
Mentally, who knows? I know it weighs on all of our minds, and I’m sure Oden wants more than anything to just be healthy. I hope he can be, because he was playing great.
Morty
#52
I can't really imagine Cho having the guts to trade away Oden as his first NBA GM deal.
Why risk ending your NBA career (if Oden is successful and the Blazersr don’t win a championship with Paul or Paul leaves) when you just got the job? Do something more conservative and the Blazers will still have a great team.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
It'd be a bold move!
I hope he’s doing everything he can to get CP3 on the team, short of losing Oden and Roy. To trade Oden for CP3 would be quite bittersweet.
M—
#52
Depends what Paul Allen's opinion is, re: Oden
Remember, the Blazer’s owner was upset a year ago because he found out that he wasn’t given all of the available info before making the ‘07 draft call. We don’t know what that “actual evidence” was, but it was pulled out of a briefcase at summer league in ‘09 so it’s not hard to speculate that it was x-rays or MRIs related to Greg’s joints or skeletal structure prior to the ’07 draft
and since the summer of ’09 Greg has been injured again, of course
and Cho is the guy with the extensive database re: knee injuries, and I suspect he shared some of that info with Paul during their 3 hour meeting, earlier this month
So if the owner really wants to cut bail with Oden, then Rich won’t really have to make a difficult decision, he’ll just to provide the right spin so the Hornet’s GM thinks he’s buying a dominant center, and then Portland had better hope like heck that Oden doesn’t stay healthy and turn into the next Wilt Chamberlain and dunk on their heads for the next decade-plus
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
paul is not the best point guard in my opinion, and wouldn't be the best for blazers.
if your get a chance to watch a utah jazz-new orleans games and don’t come away with the conclusion that deron williams is markedly better than paul we live in different worlds. dwill would be the ideal point guard for portland in many way, and he ain’t gonna be happy after the way utah just decimated their team, especially losing both korver and mathews.
as an aside to this, if i had to take a point guard to build around the celtic’s rondo wouldn’t be awful, either. thought he was far and away the best player during all of the playoffs this past season. a guard who actually might one day average a triple double!!
by utahcoyote on Jul 25, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you can make a legitimate argument about matchups
and that is a factor come playoff time. Regular season Paul > Williams. Playoffs head to head? Williams is a matchup problem.
But then, Miller was a matchup problem for Nash……
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
last years stats which shows remarkably equal, more than i had thought
Williams
2009-10 UTA 76 36:53 6.5 13.9 46.9 1.3 3.4 37.1 4.4 5.5 80.1 0.7 3.3 4.0 10.5 3.3 1.3 0.2 2.7 18.7
Paul
2009-10 NO 45 38:06 7.0 14.2 49.3 1.2 2.8 40.9 3.6 4.2 84.7 0.4 3.8 4.2 10.7 2.5 2.1 0.2 2.6 18.7
i have seen them play headsup 5-6 times (all in slc), and williams has just dominated ~~both on and off the ball. the stats for last season, when both missed games due to injuries, shows they were pretty equal. paul dominated the ball in half court set way more than williams, but part of this was likely due to personnel they had with them.
exactly
09-10 was a down year for Chris Paul while Williams got his first all star selection
Can I get an Armon?
wow you are a CP3 homer...
A play it loose undersized PG who makes up for his lack of defense with steals… is better than a physical monstrosity PG who can guard any PG in the league and even match up to the smaller SGs and combo Gs? The stats aren’t far off either! D Will I would MUCH rather have on this team than CP3… but other than D Will…. I want a defensive PG next to Roy… CP3 isn’t it. That said hes better than what we have…
I want him but c’mon… hes a PG… as in too small to be a franchise player? helllllooooo.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you greatly underrate Chris Paul's talent
He is so head and shoulders above Deron, it isn’t even worth debating.
That’s not being a “CP3 Homer”, that’s just judging him by his skills (CP3 is a better shooter and passer and plays in a slower system), stats, how much he carries his crappy team (he also doesn’t have Sloan’s offense which artificially inflates the stats of his PG and PF), and how dominant he had been at the PG position.
Deron is a sub-Brandon Roy level talent. Good, not great. He is bigger than CP3 but it doesn’t really come into play much for him.
The stats are extremely far off except for the year CP3 was hurt for most of it.
Not see how you think CP3 is a “play it loose” type player…
Mortimer
#52
Stats aren't everything
But CP3 gets more rebounds, steals, assists, and points, while shooting better, than Deron AND CP3 plays in a slower system.
Now he has to pick up more slack for his teammates since Deron is on a better team, but it makes his assists and scoring all the more impressive since he’s pretty much alone out there (except for a LMA-type PF in David West).
Deron is a very good PG, but CP3 has been way better.
M—
#52
That's a good point, in the year the Hornets beat the Mavs to advance they played the 26th slowest pace in the NBA
He’s one of the few point guards who could play within Nate’s style and wouldn’t miss a beat
He also has a great turnover rate
Deron turns it over quite a bit more than CP3.
CP3 is, like, the perfect Nate PG. He can shoot, plays defense, and doesn’t turn it over.
MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN I don’t get why he isn’t a Blazer yet.
M—
#52
Well, we know why
because John Nash was running the ‘05 draft and Paul Allen was wowed by Martell’s shooting display at the PF
Oh, you meant why he’s not a Blazer yet this offseason?
My theory is because the Hornets’ front office has been in flux, Paul hasn’t met with Demps yet and the Blazers have a couple of rookie first round draft choices that they can’t include in a deal for a few more days
I think it’s getting close to the time where we can all really start getting excited. Very close. But you’re going to have to hold your water, until then
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
CP3 is at his best when he is letting it all loose
not in a half-court set… although you did surprise me with D Will playing the faster system…
The PG who was made for a half court set was none other than Andre Miller… but I digress.
If you can give me stats that show that CP3 is a better or even comparable defender to DWill (other than steals/blocks)… then I will admit CP3 is head and shoulders the better player. But using the eyeball test, DWill seems to be AT LEAST comparable, and in my mind would be a better fit because of his defensive chops…
But the real issue at play here is, of course, that we would have to give up our chances of a title now for a couple years of WCF appearances and then CP3 leaving.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
here's one measure of defense
points per possession given up while on the court vs. off the court
08-09
http://www.82games.com/0809/ONSORT5.HTM
Click “net” under defense so it sorts best to worst. You’ll find Deron Williams 2 from the bottom, Chris Paul in the top 1/4 or so and Joel Przybilla leading everyone.
I couldn’t find the 09-10 list.
Can I get an Armon?
I disagree completely with your assessment of CP3's being at his best in the "open court"
He has almost exclusively been a halfcourt PG. And dominated in the halfcourt, playing a slow paced game.
The Jazz play much faster.
Which defensive stats to you prefer? And don’t underrate steals TOO much— he is a dominant thief, which gives your team more possessions, robs the team of their own valuable possession, and often creates easy buckets.
He isn’t leaving his man all day to ballhawk, Iverson style. He’s just amazing at stealing the ball. And he gets a TON of them.
M—
#52
i give up!!
look at footage of them playing each other, and then say who is better. the jazz personnel was never that much, if any better. especially with boozer, kirilenko and okur hurt so much. paul makes up for very poor defense, by poaching steals in passing lanes.
ahhhhh, i know where you got me!! dwill ain’t being managed by lebron james!! aha!!
sloan is a superb coach, but scott is pretty damned good.
CP3's best year he had a PER of 30. He has a good chance to become the best PG since Magic Johnson (who wasn't as efficient but as productive and dominant) if he would play on a team with some more help.
Actually he has two of the highest PER season of all time, two years ago he had 28.3 http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=1Vfl7
It’s not the end all be all, but it shows what an efficient player Paul is.
Deron Williams is a very strong point guard and gives Paul some trouble one on one, but in terms of offensive production and assists it’s not that close to decide who is better.
I can't even find a category that Deron is better at
Except height.
Has Deron even been that much better than CP3, if at all, in head to head matchups? That was something that always came up as if it mattered in these sort of CP3/Deron debates, but it started so long ago I could see it being an obsolete belief that gets repeated over and over long past it’s usefulness has expired.
Mortuy
#52
He's the CP3 stopper!
Luckily they got no one at SG to stop Roy, should we get CP3 and meet up against the Jazzers in the playoffs.
And if we still got Oden, they got no one who can even look at Oden.
M—
#52
I think Utah is going to struggle to reach the post season
I know they’ve got a great PG and head coach, but is Al Jerfferson the next Karl Malone? Color me skeptical
They need AK47 to go away and then do something with his salary slot, then they’ll probably be back in the thick of things
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
tend to agree
in a previous post on nba predictions for the coming season, i had them slotted for 6-7 in the west. al jefferson, if he buys into sloans system, might surprise all of us to the upside. jefferson said all the right things in his press conference, but its to be seen.
if i am a power forward, have to look at how malone and boozer prospered. so maybe~~
that is crazy to say
go watch some footage of dwill and paul playing each other, and then get real. as to success in nba with their teams both have had similar, losing in conference finals.
and i don’t mean footage from last year either.
I will get right on "getting real"
Look, even if Deron gets the better of CP3 in head to head matchups (the numbers show BOTH of them have stats less than normal when they play each other), how does that matter?
Dahntay Jones repeatedly held Brandon Roy to way below his season average. Is he the better player?
Does maybe the other 78 games CP3 plays a year come into the equation? Or that he struggles for 4 of those against Deron— which matters more? And Deron’s numbers don’t look very good.
There is no reasonable mainstream “non-silly” metric that Deron beats CP3 in. He is, literally, better at nothing.
The “but Deron beats him head to head!” is next to meaningless. Especially when the gap between to two is HUGE. Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge.
If you can pull up this magical footage that reveals Deron’s obvious superiority over CP3, I would love to see it. I will bet on the guy who is one of the greatest players in today’s game for the 78 other games instead of focusing on the 4 he wasn’t as good as normal in.
Mortimer
#52
anyone is a matchup problem for Nash
but Miller took RICHARDSON out of his game… they had to put the old grizzled veteran defender on him, which would never have worked had Roy been healthy, because Roy is (just a little bit) more of a threat. DWill is better than Miller (though not by much other than age… of course DWill hasn’t hit his peak)
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Am I the only person who sees
Oden not only not getting a “large offer” but being out of the NBA within 2 or 3 years if he is unable to play at least 50 games next year?
slimkim
Pretty much, yes
Kwame Brown made $4.1M last season. Darko Milicic just signed a $20M/4 deal.
These are really scrubby bigs that were formerly picked high. There’s no chance Oden is out of the league unless he is medically unable to play. Even then he might still make a roster.
yes.
Even the poster child of oft-injured, highly drafted centers, Sam Bowie, had a decade-long, reasonably productive career.
I had to look that up...
Sam played 76 games his rookie year and then went 38, 5 and 20 before Portland gave up on him. Then he went 68, 62, 71 and 79 (plus two more seasons totaling 10 years). That makes me brighten up about GO. At the time Sam Bowie just seemed fragile. I don’t get that sense about GO; I only feel the ghosts of past fragility but don’t think that GO is really like that, at least it doesn’t seem like it.
medical procedures have improved greatly since the mid-80s
I think poor Sam is still walking around with hardware holding his tibias together
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We have plenty of expiring or short-term contracts
to pair with Batum, all of which would be superfluous if Paul and Okafor came in. That’s not an issue. But the Oden thing is tricky. How the Blazers perceive Oden may weigh heavily in their decision. Also I would expect them to seriously question having Oden and Okafor on the same team.
—Dave
They could still send out Joel and Camby in such a deal - if the Hornets were more into cap relief than talent
There also is at least one way to trade Aldridge with his BYC without involving a 3rd team (the Hornets would have to send back a third small contract), but that again would leave them with more talent but also not much if any in salary cap relief.
For maximum salary cap savings plus to accomodate Paul’s wish to play with a team that is obviously close to the finals, I fear the Magic are the better trading partner anyway with Vince Carter’s contract enabling them to take on Okafor, Stojakovich and Posey along with Paul and return Vince and Gortat/Bass along with Jameer Nelson to replace Paul.
forget the expirings
If the Hornets are really interested in cap relief, we can get another team involved. We can give the Cavs Bayless + picks as a bribe to take on Posey’s contract or something, then send Batum/Fernandez/Miller/Prz/Oden whatever to NO and take Paul and Okafor’s contract. Obviously we’re paying a huge amount here, and maybe the Cavs would need more sweetener or something, but if we really wanna get it done, we can make a far better deal than ORL in terms of both cap relief and talent. Expirings are overrated this summer because of all the cap space and trade exceptions floating around.
Stojakovic expires this year.
So, no need to trade for him. Also, I don’t think Magic’s package is very attractive since PG is one of the spots that NOH does have a plan for. The spot they need to shore up/get young talent for are 3 and 5, as Collison/Thornton/West will be there for a while.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
To clear up a misconception
Vince Carter is not an expiring contract. He’s got a partial guaranteed in 2011-12 for $4 million….
As for the Hornets taking on Aldridge (or Roy for that matter) in any straight up 2 team trade with Portland only – I don’t see it happening because of the luxury tax. The Hornets just gave players away (including Cole Aldrich) to get below the tax threshold. Getting either Roy or Aldridge means they would have to take back more than they give because of BYC status, meaning they go back above the tax threshold unless they can give more players away. That’s pretty unlikely, IMO.
As long as he doesn't tank it
and go moody again as he did with Toronto. Going from a Conference contender in ORL to a rebuilding project in NOH might just put him into another funk. Demps, et al, have to know this is true….
But don't you think that they could flip David West to a team with capspace?
Sometime before the trading deadline?
I still think the most-likely scenario if LMA is involved would be a 3 or 4 team trade, and Rich Cho is just the man to put this kind of blockbuster deal together
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Storyteller, I don't see why you think LMA's BYC status is much of a problem in this deal.
NO would want to send Okafur with Paul. That’s $26.4M in salary going out.
If we sent them LMA in a package that totals $26.4M of incoming salary to them, that package counts $21.5M as outgoing salary to us (the difference between LMA’s real $10.7 salary and his BYC $5.8M outgoing salary is $4.9M). That is a legal deal because we can take back 125% + 100K, which is $21.5M * 125% + 0.1 = $27.0M.
Practically speaking, the deals that NO might accept would raise their payroll slightly. However, NO has a little room under the $70.3M luxury tax threshold (about $2.7M I believe) so they can take back a little more than they send out.
Examples of trades involving LMA.
The negative number is the amount of salary increase for NO, which in every case is less than $2.7M
Miller, Przy, LMA, Batum -1.3M
Miller, Przy, LMA, Bayless -2.4M
Miller, Przy, LMA, Rudy -1.3M
Miller, Przy, LMA, Babbitt -1.7M
Miller, Przy, LMA, Cunningham (or Pendergraph) -0.8M
Miller, Camby, LMA -2.2M
So none of those deals puts NO in the luxury tax. Plus if they got LMA they almost certainly would want to trade him or David West and that will change their luxury tax situation depending on what they did.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I show $1.8 million
after signing Aaron Gray.
Some of those proposed deals would theoretically work. I don’t, however, see them being accepted by NOH. IMO, the Hornets are going to want multiple young/cheap players. As in both Bayless and Batum, not just one.
You’re correct that theoretical deals can be constructed to keep the Hornets under the tax threshold. I just don’t think any of them are realistic.
Just my opinion….
the Hornets are going to want multiple young/cheap players. As in both Bayless and Batum
The Hornets already have Pondexter and Wright…I’m hoping this makes them less-interested in Batum, but of course there’s still “the Monty factor”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I didn't have Aaron Gray as re-signed.
You got to keep your contract page up to date if we are all going to play GM here. :)
Miller, Przy, LMA, Batum, Rudy + picks/Euros + cash might be the best offer they get. With Gray included that would put them barely over the cap then, but they could fix that with a David West trade.
Or they could substitute Camby for LMA if they wanted more salary relief after two years, or if they thought Camby would be easier to re-trade.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
another thing to ponder if we trade oden: does he pass the physical?
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Can Paul Allen do a Steve Francis?
Can Okafor’s contract just be bought out and waived? If PA is truly in “win now” mode, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing he’s done.
Francis was done as a player, and had one year left
Okafor is at least serviceable, has multiple years left, and buying him out saves no cap money
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
He can
but as blacknoiseNW points out, the financial issues make this very, very, very, very unlikely….
I think with no Oden
CP3 and Roy and LMA and Okafor is a 2nd round team still. Maybe WCF. Surely can’t handle the Lakers bigs, and by removing the one big who (when healthy) could make hay against the Lakers and Heat… it’s a more surefire way to be a great regular season team but puts a limit on how good we could be.
We gotta beat the Heat where they are weak— at center and PG. Okafor was pretty dang bad last season and not THAT great otherwise. Just solid. Oden was extremely good during his stretch last season, and fits CP3 perfectly.
Shoot, I don’t wanna trade Roy one bit, but I’d trade Roy before I trade Oden, since CP3 is so good at getting his bigs involved and he’d make a monster out of Oden. He’s a lot better of a playmaker than Roy is, and Roy is a good playmaker.
The inside/outside balance is important, and in Oden we got a guy who can be unguardable. I still say he’s the key to beating the super team in Miami and getting past the Lakers.
Mortimer
#52
You don't think a big man rotation of
Aldridge, Okafor and Camby could hold their own against Gasol, Bynum and Odom? I think they’d do well enough while Paul exploits the gigantic mismatch at PG.
Can I get an Armon?
We could
But still wouldn’t be enough against the Heat than an Oden playing at last year’s level.
I think Gasol is much better than any out of LMA, Oka, or Camby. So is Odom. I don’t think it’s that equal, especially if Bynum finally gets healthy.
I am greedy, so I want both mismatches at two great positions… C and PG. Our package is still better than anything any other team can throw together out of all we heard without Oden.
M—
#52
I agree that Gasol is much better than those 3, but not Odom
and Bynum has been injured as many times as Oden. We’d do fine.
I’m not sure about the Heat. I want to see how they play together before I get too in depth thinking up strategies to stop them.
Can I get an Armon?
Bynum has been hurt more and with a lot more ripping and tears than Oden
Odom is better than LMA and pretty underrated now. He’s a space cadet but has been great at filling in the gaps and being a versatile weapon on both ends of the court for the Lakers.
He can play very good defense, pass, score every once in a while like a non-idiot, and rebound. Camby can rebound and pass but his offense has been pretty bad lately, LMA is LMA, and Okafor was as uninterested as could be last season and still is a relatively immobile slow undersized center who is a lock for 10/10.
He’s not that great at being a traditional center, and he’s not versatile like Odom.
In my opinion.
And Bynum is still effective even though he can barely walk.
M—
#52
I'd say
Gasol>Aldridge>=Healthy Bynum>Odom>Okafor>Camby (age)>Injured Bynum
But we would still have the length to slow down their bigs while they would have no answer for Chris Paul.
Can I get an Armon?
Deron shot better his rookie year
Since then, CP3 has been the better shooter from 3 point land.
M—
#52
you give up something to gain something
much rather see him shooting that 3 ball than getting assist after assist after assist… you force him to shoot that three too many times in a game… thats a win, and yes, everyone has a limit where 3 pointers become ineffective when shown next to penetration.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you really think zoning 3 good shooters like Matthews, LMA, Roy, and CP3
Will matter? They’re all good shooters who can easily make the open 3 that zones allow.
Shoot, Roy and CP3 can also break a zone on their own.
M—
#52
and a healthy Oden mops the floor with Okafor
Oden with a few consecutive healthy seasons mops the floor with all of them fools.
Can I get an Armon?
I like LMA - but he has to be the big considered in a trade if that is what NO wants back...
for those reasons exactly
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
you can't just assume a healthy oden
hard for me to see how he won’t lose some mobility after last years injury. how many games have we seen a healthy oden during his portland career?
Side Note: Aldridge hasn’t been mentioned much in potential deals because the Hornets probably wouldn’t have direct interest in him and he’s a BYC player this year. But if you could concoct a three-team deal that included him but not the other three it’d probably make sense for the Blazers to part with him. Marcus Camby can play power forward in the near future and you can find another forward through the draft or in free agency. Serviceable power forwards are common and that’s about what you’d need
This^
Led to the Cho machine
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Hardly any value there for New Orleans
Got to give them something other than an outlet for Okafor’s contract.
I tried to make something work with Toronto as the Raptors would obviously like a Bosh replacement, but there’s not enough cheap young talent on their roster.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=25ylbhp is as close as I can come. Hornets get a lot of expirings and dump Posey/Okafor, but don’t get all that much young talent besides Bayless and DeRozan, who are both meh talents.
by dwaynebillybob on Jul 25, 2010 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions
As I mentioned elsewhere with this proposal
The ESPN trade machine won’t allow me to sweeten the deal. I realize the NO side is talent-poor, but (in the deal as presented) they are receiving potentially 28 mil in ECs and getting rid of Okafur’s albatross contract. The Blazers could also send them Babbitt, Williams and the rights to Victor Claver, etc. (Pendergraph and Dorsey are not a necessary part of this deal, I just prefer Joey to Jeff so I stuck them in there) I’m giving Toronto a steal of a deal (LMA and Rudy for Derozan, Banks and Evans) so they would probably be required to chip in with some more talent, as well.
This is by no means a finished deal, it was an exercise to illustrate how LMA, MIller, Przy (etc) could hypothetically be dealt and supply NO with capspace and young talent, as well as sending a player to the Raptors who can do some of the things that Bosh did for them. Like Dave wrote above, LMA is not as essential to the future of the Blazers as he may have been, a few years ago. If there’s an opportunity to acquire an elite PG, his name should be “on the table” Finally, this proposal solves the “Rudy issue” because if Derozan was dealt, Fernandez could play alongside Calderon, and Toronto’s roster certainly has that “international flavor” already
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
LMA’s BYC status is no problem in a trade for Paul and Okafor
because NO is sending out more than $26M and can therefore take back more than $33M, which easily absorbs the $5M difference between LMA’s outgoing and incoming BYC salaries.
NO might not want LMA because they have David West, but they could then turn around and trade one of them (probably West) for another excellent player.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 2:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Problem is it puts them back over the Luxury Tax Threshold, which is exactly what they’ve been working to avoid.
Exactly
Which is why I cast about for a trade partner in the Eastern Conference and Toronto has the need to “replace” Bosh and the capspace to help facilitate a 3-way deal
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
No it doesn't.
They can take LMA as part of the trade and still be under the cap. If they then trade away LMA or West it depends on who they traded them for as well.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
For instance this deal
Miller, Przy, LMA, Batum, Rudy (plus cash and picks/Euros) for CP3+Okafor
.
increases their current salary by only $2.5M to about $70.2M (cap is $70.3M). Then they can trade LMA or West for whatever if they want to lower the salary another $M or so for other moves.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
they could then turn around and trade one of them (probably West) for another excellent player
Right. Cho mentioned “making deals to acquire assets that can be used in other deals, later” during his press conference, the other day. We need to keep in mind that a hypothetical CP3 deal involving LMA wouldn’t occur in a vacuum from NO’s perspective. If Paul tells the Hornets he wants to be traded tomorrow, they should swing into “talent acquisition mode” and not worry as much about immediate “fit” as they do about adding as many assets as they can in exchange for Chris.
If they accepted LMA as part of the deal, then sure there would be a potential PT conflict at PF with West but there’s no reason that LMA and West would need to both be on their roster this fall. Let’s face it, if CP3 is traded, the Hornet’s will be beginning a new era, and he roster they have now will probably have to be radically restructured—and probably in short order. The best way for NO to become competitive again would be to acquire as much talent as possible, and make subsequent deals with some of those assets that they acquire.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Paul may eventually eye elsewhere
Until I heard that Paul hired the same group of business managers as Lebron, I would have thought that if he were to come to Portland, he would want to stay. I’m not so sure now – This business team seems motivated to be in a big market, where there can be lots of exposure and advertising opportunities and to create situations where they can team up with other all star players. My sense is this group would like to see Paul in New York or one of the other larger markets. So I would be a little leary of the move.
I have a trade idea that wouldn’t include any of the core players – which I now consider Batum to be one. Outside of such a deal, I’m not sure I’d go after Paul – there is still some pretty good talent this team could bring in with contracts such as Miller, Joel and young talent such as Bayless and Rudy. I’ve purposed the deal elsewhere but will again post it below:
Rudy and Marcus Camby to NY for R. Turiaf, Gallinari, and Azubuike. The Blazers then send Gallinari, Turiaf, in addition to Miller, Joel, Bayless and maybe Jeff (don’t think the deal would be dependent on Jeff being included in the deal). The Blazers could throw in Victor Claver and a possible #1 to NY in hopes of getting them to give up Gallinari. In return the Blazers get Okafor and Paul.
The Hornets get a young and talented SF in Gallinari, a backup at the 4 in Turiaf, a young combo guard in Bayless and can save money with two expiring contracts in Joel and Miller.
The Knicks get a player that they like and would fit their system in Rudy, and Camby would team well with Amare, and perhaps get some draft picks and the right to Claver.
Not entirely unreasonable, BUT...
Knicks really like Gallinari and I’m not sure they’ll see Camby as the piece that makes them a championship contender in the East. Not a terrible trade for the Knicks.
But if I’m NO and I’m discussing the idea of giving you my best player and you say that Batum is untouchable. I’d say the conversation was over. Ultimately, I think either 1) NO keeps CP3 2) Another team makes a better offer or 3) we give up Batum and expiring contracts to get him.
What if we helped NY get Paul?
Of course, we score big too.
by dwaynebillybob on Jul 25, 2010 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions
We lose 13 wins in that trade though
Not to mention how do you follow that up by trading the expiring contracts for?
Blazers win!
Scratch that.
I didn’t mean to include Andre and Bayless in the same proposal. Having Armon Johnson as our starting PG backed up by Mills would lose us a lot more than 13 wins (not that I believe the wins analysis on there, but still).
by dwaynebillybob on Jul 25, 2010 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't care much for trade proposal
But Paul moving on after two seasons and the possibility of losing part of those two seasons should seriously alter how the Blazers approach trying to acquire Paul. I certainly do not think they should do whatever it takes to
make it happen.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
by tssbro on Jul 25, 2010 8:45 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Okafor can play some 4 as well
Don’t forget that when talking about possible Aldridge trades. Oden / Przy and Camby / Okafor is a pretty good rotation at the 4 and 5.
Obviously the Hornets don’t need LMA but there might be a market out there with some other teams:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2befkum (Charlotte)
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2a4t26t (Houston, only if the Rockets think Yao’s done)
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=22nq7wm (Kings)
by dwaynebillybob on Jul 25, 2010 12:41 AM PDT reply actions
Last one didn't include LMA, but it's similar three-team idea
I would love to get Casspi back for Batum and I think all three teams win with this. Sacramento gets a great piece in Batum next to Evans and has a replacement 5 in Okafor for when Dalembert moves on. New Orleans gets a great young center in Thompson, a starting PG with Miller (expiring) and a backup gunner in Bayless, plus a salary dump with Przy. We get Paul, don’t drop off much at SF with Casspi, and keep Oden, Roy, and LMA.
by dwaynebillybob on Jul 25, 2010 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Trade B. Roy / Miller for Paul...
PG – Paul
SG – Fernandez
SF – Batum
PF – LMA
Ce – Oden
Mmmmmmmmmmmmm
If Cleveland came to us before and said they would trade us LeBron for Brandon Roy and Andre Miller you would do it...
No reason another incredible MVP caliber player that is better than B. Roy shouldn’t get the same consideration unless your just being a total homer for B. Roy…
Especially if they just spent $34 million on a starting caliber SG in Matthews...
Not to mention Rudy Fernandez as well.
Especially, if you're just about positive they'll leave
If the Blazers made that deal last year, we’d have a team minus Roy. Not a good move. And, it’s one that could easily happen here.
You simply cannot expose yourself to that much risk.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
The "salary cap considerations" light has been turned off.
You are now free to propose impossible deals without checking them first.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Jul 25, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
3 way trade with NY
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2767btk
This trade saves NO 26M in expiring contracts and lands them a young up and comer in Batum and money under the cap next year to rebuild for Monty, of course Portland gets Paul and Okafor, while NY gets bayless, rudy, and camby who can all play in dantoni’s offense, clearing portlants roster to sign armon johnson/,mills as back ups. you could also throw in some draft picks/cash to sweeten the pot.
Lineup
Starters Bench
Paul Armon/mills
Roy Mathews/williams
Chandler Mathews/babbit
LA cunningham/pendergraph
Oden okafor
I like this trade, a lot
Granted the TM says we are at a net loss in games but it makes everyone happy; NO gets lots of expiring contracts, Camby gets to finish up in NY where he was happy to being with, we get Paul without giving up too much. Win all around.
by Drexler4Ever on Jul 25, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Great read Dave as usual.
I think Aldridge is also out of the deal because they have David West.
I just want to know if there is a way we can get Paul to sign an extention as part of a trade agreement. Then I’d say offer Batum and keep the big 3. The fewer players we give up the better chance we have for immediate success.
by BRoyInThe4th on Jul 25, 2010 1:48 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
still possible
rumors are that if alrdridge is part of deal, NO trades West to Orlando for Gortat and Bass which lets them move Lewis back to small forward (his natural position), at least thats what I’ve seen.
the biggest problem is Aldridge's contract though
The main selling point in a Chris Paul deal is that the other team takes back an ugly contract.
Can I get an Armon?
Agreed
I dont think Alrdidge is part of trade due to NO trying to shed salary not taking on a long expensive one.
w0rd
It’d be to cut costs and have cheap rookie deals to sell hope for a bright future while the owner gets the whole “who will buy the team” thang sorted out, not to have another long term contract to worry about.
—M
#52
The Hornets could turn around and flip LMA anytime between December and February
and not be liable for his salary cap hit
Cho is not obligated to give NO either Batum or Oden for CP3, the Blazers have plenty of other assets to offer
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Any type of source for these "rumors"?
Or is it more, “people have been talking on the internet”?
It would be great to keep the "big 4" of Roy, Oden, Batum and Aldridge in a trade for Paul
It would be good to keep 3 of the 4, probably Oden over Batum because of the immense impact a healthy Oden does and will have.
I’d still do the trade if they wanted both Batum and Oden assuming they’re sending Okafor back. It would suck to trade away both those guys, but from a talent perspective it’s still worth it. Paul is on a level now that we hope Oden can be at eventually if he can stay healthy.
Also, regarding Paul leaving as a free agent in 2 years:
Why would he put the Blazers on his wish list if he didn’t want to stay here long term? And if you’re concerned that he’s prone to leaving team why would a contract extension make a difference? He’s trying to get traded while under contract right now.
Can I get an Armon?
by Magnum on Jul 25, 2010 1:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
He want's to play with Dwight Howard
And maybe see’s Oden as being the Dwight Howard of the west, where he could form a nice rivalry for the next 5 years against the Heat on the east. If we could keep our 3 of Roy-Aldridge-Oden and add Paul it wouldn’t really matter what our bench looked like. It would fill itself out with draft picks and MLE vet signings.
Batum is by far the most replaceable player of those 4, either in free agency or draft picks.
Batum is by far the most replaceable player of those 4
I disagree, if he continues his current growth curve, Nic will become the best overall SF in Trail Blazer history. The Blazers have historically struggled to fill the 3 position with an all-star caliber player, and the team has a starting PF already on the roster to replace LMA (Camby) with another versatile big man coming in the hypothetical trade (Okafur)
As far as replace-ability and upside is concerned, Batum > LMA
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 25, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
If we weren't talking about CP3 or Tony Parker
I’d be saying that LMA will be a nice complementary PF to play alongside Greg for years (even though the luxury tax payments are going to be exorbitant if that’s the case)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If Paul Allen is truly looking at his own mortality...
He goes all-in for Chris Paul. If he doesn’t think he’s got time for Greg to both stay healthy and dominate,I can easily see him agreeing to move Oden for Paul in hopes of winning now.
Camby,Aldridge,Okafor is a good enough big man rotation and all three should be able to play w/each other.
Trading Oden also reduces the salary exposure,esp considering Camby is signed for just 2 yrs.
Something like Oden,Rudy,Miller,Pryz,2011,2013 Firsts,cash and the rights to Johnson for Paul,Okafor. Gives NO young players,expirings,draft picks,substantial payroll saving(not just the nearly $4mil,but the salary saved by not having to sign other players to fill out roster) and $3mil for owner to pocket.
NY + Ind = CP3
There’s one automatic scenario from a talent/roster standpoint: if the Hornets will accept any package that leaves Portland’s core of Roy, Aldridge, Oden, and Batum untouched. I cannot imagine this scenario actually coming about.
I CAN!
NO-
Wants to move Okafor ($11.5Mil Cap space). Needs a cheaper Center as replacement
Have Darren Collison and don’t need Miller but could use Bayless backing Collison up.
Wants a 20+pts star to fill the “Big-name” void with the lose of CP3.
Ind-
Wants to free up Cap space and has implied that they might move Danny Granger ($11Mil).
Need a PG and Miller ($7.27Mil) would be a good fit.
NY-
Needs a Center (Okafor) and R. Turiaf is just a backup.
Really want Rudy.
Have the Cap space to absorb those contracts
Could give up Anthony Randolph ($2Mil)
RESULTS-
NY gets Okafor + Rudy
Ind gets Anthony Randolph + Andre Miller + Cap Space
NO gets Danny Granger + Jerryd Bayless + Joel Przybilla + Cap Space
Blazers:
Point Guard…. Chris Paul, Armon Johnson, Patty Mills
Shooting Guard Brandon Roy, Wesley Matthews, Elliot Williams
Small Forward Nicolas Batum Dante Cunningham Luke Babbitt
Power Forward LaMarcus Aldridge, Jeff Pendergraph.76
Center …………. Greg Oden, Marcus Camby10.66
This would be ideal, not sure Indiana would do it. Even if they thought
Granger would leave, seems they could get better in return.
by BRoyInThe4th on Jul 25, 2010 2:12 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Indie needs a proven PG
very few are actually available.
Miller would fit their game scheme.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Indie
has Mike Dunleavy healthy again and needs to give minutes also to the development of Paul George at SF.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 2:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think they'd get rid of Granger-- even though I ain't crazy about his game-- for Mike Dunleavy, who is a lot worse
Or for a rookie SF, since Granger isn’t a cancer or anything and is young and in his prime.
If there was a reason to move him, I can see it more. Otherwise, why would they do it for one year of Andre Miller? Cap space is fine but Indy ain’t gonna be a prime free agent location…
I don’t think they have a rush to move Granger, and the other SF’s aren’t important or intriguing enough to wanna make room for them. In my opinion.
Morty
#52
The trigger is Miller
They need (big time) a good Point Guard this season and next.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions
It ain't like they're going anywhere
To me, the teams that would want Dre are guys who wanna have more experience to add to their already-decent team, or like that he can be an expiring contract this year if the team denies his option.
Adding him to a bad team, he won’t make them a playoff team, and if they’re rebuilding (which they should be) his age and contract makes him an expiring contract still. He’s not in the long term plans of any team, and it ain’t like Indy is going anywhere even if they get Dre for free…
—M
#52
Thanks for underscoring his value to Indie for me
1) expiring contract
2) 14.5PPG, 7.2Ast, 4.1Rbs, 45.9FG%, 80.4FT% (where will they fine some other PG with similar numbers)
3) Cap space this year and Granger has 4 years remaining on his contract.
4) As you said, " I ain’t crazy about his(Granger’s) game". He hasn’t become that impact player they expected.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, we can agree to disagree
I think the Pacers would find it very underwhelming to turn Granger into a rental on a good-not-great PG during a time where they aren’t even contending for the 8th seed, and cap space that won’t bring them a good player anywayz.
M—
#52
If they had a pressing need or reason to move Granger
I have an easier time seeing it. I don’t think their relationship with Granger has soured that much, if at all— but I can’t say I follow the Pacers closely.
—M
#52
"Pacers banking on big moves next summer"
Check out today’s article on the Pacers.
The Pacers have not made a free agent acquisition because they are $10 million over the salary cap. Even a midlevel exception contract would put the club over the luxury tax.
…
"It’s been a while since we’ve been in the playoffs but what I’m trying to do is get a core of young guys to move this franchise forward,’’ he (Bird) said. "After next year we’ll be around $30 million and hopefully we can build it from there. Our goal right now is to give these young players experience and see what happens in the collective bargaining agreement.’’
Miller would add stability for his current young players as he did here and his contract can be dropped for the rebuilding.
Randolph adds another piece for his youth movement.
Sounds like a perfect fit.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like they're looking for a young PG, not Andre
Which is too bad, because I thought that Andre and INdy might be a good fit, if the Blazers decide to acquire Paul or Parker in the next 7 months
The Pacers might be interested in Bayless, or even Elliott Williams
Who knew the Blazers preferred Luke Babbitt and Elliott Williams over Paul George and Dominique Jones? Certainly not you and me. I still think the Blazer’s rookies could be used as trade filler, even to the Hornets. (It’s possible, since the two teams were in CP3 discussions before the draft, that Portland chose these 2 because they knew that NO was interested in them…)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The interesting thing was that Bird went after Paul George
when he had Granger for 4 more years.
Babbitt is/will be a role player whereas Paul George can defend and score.
That tells me that Bird is planning on moving Granger.
If Cho can convince Bird to move him now, Granger should be enough for NO to do the trade.
Cho may have to throw in next year’s 1st rounder or one of the EUROs to tip it.
But that’s the power Cho has that the Magic or other teams don’t.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
You've got two things going on at once, here
Larry said that he wants to put a young team together that can gain experience, that’s telling me he doesn’t expect them to win a lot until after the CBA (they’re in “rebuilding mode”)
So, making an argument for Andre to go to that situation and for Granger to leave it is backwards, you can’t have it both ways. Granger is valuable to the Pacers for a reason that Miller isn’t—he’ll help them sell tickets. Plus, Danny is still young enough that in a few years he could be a part of Indiana’s next playoff team, OR they could use his expiring contract in 2013 to add another piece to their roster
In other words, I think you’re reaching here re: what Bird is thinking about re: Granger needing to be immediately dealt—and I’m pretty sure the Pacers aren’t looking to add Andre as a mentor—and I definitely know that Miller would be displeased if he was sent to Indiana at this time!
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Miller would make the Pacers better this season
and maybe next. He is the PG that they need NOW. Just as he was for our young team.
You have been advocating adding more seasoned players for our young team.
Now you are switching view points in a similar situation?
Sure Bird wants a young PG (why not?). But he won’t get one before the season starts.
Who will be distributing the ball to Granger and the other youth THIS season?
The whole team would be better with Miller and than Bird can go after that young PG next viable season.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure he'd make them better this season
But losing Granger makes them worse, right?
And do they even WANT to be better? I say no. They wanna develop their players and wait and see with the CBA.
Andre joining our playoff level team is one thing; joining a bad team who would be trading their star for him is another.
M—
#52
He is the PG that they need NOW. Just as he was for our young team.
The Pacers already have veteran PGs (Ford and Tinsley) on their roster, and they haven’t won 40 games in 5 years (32, last year) They are closer to the 2005 Blazers than the 2009 Portland team that won 54 games. If you put Andre on their roster, he wouldn’t take Indy anywhere that they haven’t already been recently—especially if Granger is gone.
They’re looking for a young PG with upside, that’s something the Blazers doesn’t have—unless Indy prefers a combo like Bayless or a project like Williams
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
miller made an awful philly team a playoff team
the one that allan iverson destroyed. when he left to come to portland philly missed playoffs again.
coincidence??
It's not that Dre isn't a good PG
It’s just that it’s better for the Pacers to be a bad team, than a mediocre one struggling to make the playoffs. I think they know that right now.
They need lottery picks and to save money, not be just a lil’ bit better.
M—
#52
It seems fair
But I haven’t heard Indy is maybe gonna move Granger… is that true?
I think he’s extremely overrated and doesn’t play a style that is conducive to winning, so I’m down for them trading him while he’s really valuable.
M—
#52
yeah...
under different circumstances i’d be more eager to trade for Chris Paul.
the fact that he is trying to force a trade doesn’t bode too well for us. (in general, it just looks bad.) i think, regardless of how well we do with him, there is a possibility of him flaking out on us after two years. if playing on a competitor was his only motivation for leaving New Orleans, New York would not be on his list.
by DefenderOfPants on Jul 25, 2010 2:15 AM PDT reply actions
I give him a pass since NY is a great city and, like LA, players love it
The lockout is certainly worrisome, as it could potentially rob us of a year out of his contract, and we’d want him to play as much with us as possible to get attached— from the success we’d surely have, to the fans, to our owner, everything.
I think it’s lame he’s forcing a trade out of NOLA but I can easily get past it if we end up with him.
_-M
#52
NYC is a really great city for a young multimillionaire
vastly preferable to say Des Moines, Denver or Charlotte. On and on. I don’t blame him on that level at all.
ignacio
There's no NBA team in Des Moines, but if one ever moved there I say we call them
the Des Moines Medicants. The players wouldn’t be paid, but rather they would beg the fans for handouts. It’ll be a test case under the new CBA rules.
Can I get an Armon?
He wants to go to New York
…because he believes that Melo can be signed next offseason and the Knicks would have a trio of excellent players.
CP3's new agent also wants him to go to NY
for marketing and endorsements reasons
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
CP3s endorsements/marketing would be just fine if he wins a TITLE regardless of where he goes.
I do think the west coast teams suffer somewhat due to viewing/time zones…but hey..I think most of the US knows about LA right???
There's no comparison, really
CP3 could win a title in Portland and still have the opportunity to make millions more in extra-salary income, even playing for a mediocre Knicks team
and Paul’s agent gets a slice of all of those deals, so I can’t expect he’d be in favor of Chris coming to the extreme NW outpost of the NBA
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I can't imagine then
his agent supporting a move by Paul to NY in 2 years as a free agent when he might have to take half of what he’s making now (depending on what the new CBA looks like….)
I'm talking about extra-salary income, Kramer
that means non-cap-related income for CP3 outside of what you can calculate on your spreadsheet, because it’s coming from endorsements and marketing revenue that could be generated in the Big Apple versus…Stumptown
Nobody knows what the new CBA will bring, but if it’s as bad as you say (half? really?) Paul will choose not to opt out in 2012-2013. He’ll just take the 17mil that’s already guaranteed to him and then test the market in July 2013, instead
I just remember hearing about the Knick’s proposal to LBJ, then estimated that he could earn 1.3 billion if he came to play in NY for a 10 year career. There’s no way that happens for any athlete in Portland’s market, and that’s the kind of battle the Blazers will be up against if they acquire CP3. His agent will be whispering sweet offers in his ear for the next couple of years, especially during the lockout.
Could Chris fly down to L*A to make a commercial on an off-day? Sure, or he could do endorsements during the offseason. But Blazer fans are only going to buy so much stuff, and even though Portland’s brand will go viral if he’s signed and the team wins multiple titles, Chris’ bottom line will still be dragging behind the hypothetical levels that he could make playing in a large market. Paul may not care, and he could tell his agent to buzz off because he’s happy being a big fish in a small pond, but not many superstars are wired that way. Drexler and Roy are a couple of exceptions
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Nobody thinks the players will make more in the next CBA
and Amare can’t take the $14 million that Wade did (he’s locked into that $20 million salary). Plus, I don’t see the Knicks taking yet another 2 years to give away everybody except for Stoudemire. First I don’t think they can do it (it’s going to be a different climate) and secondly, they’ve alienated enough of their fanbase telling them to be patient for 2 years. Now the marketing campaign is going to be “We’re going to be bad for another 2 years and then give away our lottery picks plus 80% of the roster. Please continue to pay the 2nd highest ticket prices in the league!”?
BTW is Paul really all about the $$$? Or is he seeking to be with a team that can match up with the Heat from a talent perspective? I could see LeBron going to NY to get the Benjamins but even he turned it down. When Paul’s people sit him down to tell him that it’s a different set of circumstances than for Wade/Bosh/James and that yes, to play with Amare and Carmelo and any semblance of a supporting cast, he’d have to take half of his current salary, I’m not so sure he’ll bolt. Especially if, as you say, he could “win a title with Portland”.
is Paul really all about the $$$
I’m not sure, but his financial advisors certainly are. Think of it like LeGarie with KP and Penn last year, CP3’s agent is looking for his next big payday. If that’s not going to come via a big contract in 2013 because of the new CBA, where else is it going to come from? Endorsement income
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I disagree. I think titles, championships sell. No matter where they occur!!!
I think if the title or championship is in New York, then yes, Paul would make more money on endorsements/advertising.
I don’t think it would come automatically from his being on a mediocre team in New York. In fact, his value may fall if he was unable to achieve the title/championship.
This is my opinion and may be completely wrong!!!
An interesting question is if you'd trade Chris Paul for Brandon Roy.
I know this is a supremely heretical thought.
Yes, Brandon is Our Guy. The unofficial mayor of the town, respected by men, desired by women and beloved by Blazer logo-clad children. He can do pretty much all of the things in the William Wesley thread, plus actually play basketball.
And honestly, loyalty is important so I don’t know that I’d even want to see it happen.
But just … you know, for discussion’s sake. They’re both skilled players, but also have very different skill sets. Which one truly makes the other players on this roster better and does the most to improve the team? One issue for the Blazers in the Roy era has been the slow-down, increasingly predictable offense. Part of that’s on the coach. But part of it is because Brandon Roy is our best player, so all the other pieces are naturally asked to conform to him. A discussion can be had if players like LMA, Rudy, even Oden and Batum are best served by this.
Imagine those players above with Paul, and you’ve got possibilities for a more motion based, uptempo (when needed) team that’s really pretty flexible. The shooting guard spot would be filled by Wesley Matthews and/or Rudy. Both of whom you’d have to imagine would thrive in this system compared to playing behind Roy. The team would have plenty of solid defenders left in any given lineup as well.
Is this just crazy talk?
Okay, okay, I know that Paul is on record with second-hand quotes that he wouldn’t want to move to Portland if that meant Roy or Aldridge wouldn’t be there. On the other hand, it’s not entirely his choice and maybe he’d take another look at the possible lineup and be convinced. And okay, there may have to be other pieces involved to make the trade feasible. Injury history and the cold fact of Paul’s deal running out in 2 years also counts for a lot. But this is just idle trade talk …
This isn’t to say that Paul and Roy couldn’t play together, or that Roy couldn’t adapt to a more Paul-controlled offense and still really contribute. In fact, it would be a great thing to watch. But it’s interesting to look at which Blazer core piece would be replaced, have the greater impact on team style, and more importantly— leave the most balanced and effective Trail Blazer team.
Besides, speculation is fun.
by HowlinJoeWolf on Jul 25, 2010 2:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
To me
(And as a disclaimer, I don’t wanna trade Roy, and it doesn’t even make sense for the Hornets to ask for him due to them wanting to cut costs and that it’s a much, much, much higher price any other team would even come close to offering for CP3)
CP3 does everything Roy does, but better. Better scorer, better playmaker, better defender, better at getting his bigs involved. It’s not that Roy is bad— he’s not. Roy is a top 10 player in the NBA. 3rd best SG. It’s just that Paul is that good.
Removing all emotion from the deal, Paul is just simply a better player who would make our team gooder.
It’s all academic of course, since we ain’t gonna trade Roy, and the Hornettes have no right to expect that sort of equal value back for CP3.
Mortimer
#52
I know Paul is better than Roy, but we got Roy tied up for 4 years and I'm certain he will stay beyond that.
Paul is only committed for 2 years, and does that even mean anything? The lockout notwithstanding, he could turn around after 1 year and demand out just like he’s doing with NO now. If Oden or Roy gets hurt he will probably bolt for sure after 2 years.
That’s the logical argument. But beyond that, Roy saved this franchise, and I really believe that. He isn’t going to do a LeBron or a CP3 on us. To me he’s priceless. I want to win it with Roy.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I know Mort, but after watching this team for 40 years Roy made me fanatical again. I can't remove my emotion for Roy.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:04 AM PDT up reply actions
On pure talent
I’d trade Roy for Paul in a second.
With messy real world considerations, no, it doesn’t make sense. We’d need both Paul and Roy to win a title. Then of course, contract stuff plus trading “our guy” away never feels good.
Can I get an Armon?
Yeah … and that’s a good point about the Hornettes and equal value. But also, looking at it from the New Orleans POV, they seem to have identified shooting guard as the area they’d most like to improve in. They’ve got Darren Collison waiting in the wings at point and seem to like many of their other pieces.
So if Portland is looking to out-bid offers from teams like Orlando, I can’t imagine anybody offering a better chip, at a more ideal position than Roy. It’s overpaying … but hey, apparently that’s our style this summer.
The academic point, I guess, is if the Roy/Paul switch not only is the offer that makes the team the best and would persuade NOH the most, but also ends up being better than the scenarios where we lose Oden and Batum, or gutting half the roster. Plus unlike the ones where we get Chris Paul for a bag of chips, it might actually be accepted.
Still I can’t imagine it would really be offered either. And the contract stuff kind of makes Portland the equivalent of the wild, crazy-eyed guy at the poker table who goes all-in at a time that makes no sense.
Ultimately, and emotion-wise I’m with you guys. It just wouldn’t feel right in the gut. But I guess in all the crazy scenarios, since you know … ti’s the season and all, it seems interesting to try and parse out what actually might make logical, horrific sense. If in fact it even does.
Thanks for the thoughts, Mortimer, Magnum and BlazeFanSince1970. Always enjoy reading what you fellas have to say.
by HowlinJoeWolf on Jul 25, 2010 3:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks Howlin' Joe!
I feel likewise about your thoughts you type up and put on my computer screen as well!
Love,
Morty
#52
oh sure
Emotionally it would feel strange to trade any of our main guys. For some reason, Oden more than other guys for me because of the roller coaster ride it’s been with him. But I’m able to (some extent) look at things objectively.
Can I get an Armon?
Yeah, I can't do Roy for emotional reasons (plus the threat that CP3 leaves us)
or Oden because I think he’s the key to a championship.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:23 AM PDT up reply actions
But what if Rich Cho is an emotion-less robot?
… and Paul Allen is a crazy gambler.
And Nate McMillan is sedated when they sit down to talk about changing the offensive style, much like the A-Team trying to fool Mr. T into flying on a plane? When he wakes up, the trade has already happened.
What then? Okay, okay. I’ll stop.
by HowlinJoeWolf on Jul 25, 2010 3:39 AM PDT up reply actions
For what it’s worth, the Blazer lineup in this strange-feeling scenario without Roy might be PAMBO.
(Paul, Aldridge, Matthews, Batum, Oden)
Or PARBO with Rudy.
Man, now it feels even more wrong.
by HowlinJoeWolf on Jul 25, 2010 3:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually, I am strangely sanguine about the Roy for Paul trade
probably for two reasons: Roy’s health questions, particularly his knee, and my dissatisfaction with the dreary “Roy ball” slow play strategy, of course, condoned by coach Nate. If Roy is a drag on the team oriented play I prefer, and CP was not, that would have some appeal. I personally would rather see Roy go than Oden or Aldrich, which is even a bit surprising to me.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
Two conflicting stories
On the one hand, Paul is the superior basketball player, and he fits better with what the Blazers have. He is better at setting up bigs and the Blazers have a lot more available at SG than at PG.
On the other hand, Roy is the face of the franchise and is guaranteed to stay for a long time. Paul is a serious flight risk make doubly more serious by trading Roy. All accounts of Paul’s motivations indicate that Roy must stay if Portland is to retain Paul long term.
It just jams up my brain to go through endless hypothetical fantasy trades.
When and if a move occurs, it probably won’t be anything anyone imagined. “Wait and see” may seem boring, but I find rosterbation madness infinitely more so, because it’s just talk.
ignacio
It's crazy to think about and something I don't usually do either
I avoid the trade drawers, never play with the Trade Machine on ESPN, and never have written a trade suggestion.
The difference this time, is that it really feels like CP3 could be traded this offseason. And if that is true, I want the sonuvagun.
M—
#52
I know exactly what you mean.
I never do trade proposals and hardly read the trade drawers. Suddenly I’m building spreadsheets to compute all the salary combinations that work for Paul and Okafor. Yet, I still can’t believe New Orleans will trade him.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Haha, yeah
It’s hard to believe and only adds to an already crazy offseason for the NBA.
Adding CP3 sounds too good to be true, and we’ve been a fanbase that has been yearning for him since we didn’t draft him, so to even IMAGINE that it’s a possibility… ya can’t let yourself believe it because the chance for a letdown seems obvious.
Sure feels like he’s gonna be traded though… dangit! I got myself hoping for it again.
Morty
#52
Drat!
And here we already traded away Martell Webster. So much for including him in any possible Paul trade.
Draft day catharsis for the yearning Blazer fanbase gets denied!
by HowlinJoeWolf on Jul 25, 2010 3:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I said that on draft day. I wanted Webster as part of a big trade this summer. But I never dreamed it might be for CP3.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:26 AM PDT up reply actions
but what if the Hornets didn't want Webster?
Remember, the 2 teams were in CP3 negotiations leading up to the draft
What if NO wanted young/cheap talent Babbitt and/or Williams and not Martell?. They currently have Pondexter and Brackins from this past draft class, and there’s an outside chance that the Blazers were drafting with the CP3 deal in mind but they can’t actually add Luke or Elliott to any deals for another week or so
KP and Cho are not who were/are driving the “get CP3” bus, Larry Miller and Paul have been involved in this process from the beginning, and they have to already know what assets the Hornets are interested in, if CP3 gives them an ultimatum, tomorrow
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
So the Blazers traded Martell to get Babbitt so NO would trade us CP3?
Then they announced they wouldn’t trade CP3, but that was just to keep the other 28 NBA teams from confusing them with bids for CP3 because they already had a great deal with Portland? And they are really meeting with CP3 tomorrow to tell him he is being traded to Portland as soon as Babbitt & Williams can be traded.
Yeah, that sounds about right to me.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Wheels within wheels, my friend
Let’s say that before the draft the Blazers and the Hornets were getting close to a deal, but NO needed a little more young talent to feel comfortable with it. How hard would it have been for the Blazers to ask “are their any players in this draft class that you’d like to pick, if you have a couple of extra 1st round choices?” We see this happen from time to time, but the trades are usually completed on draft night, and they hinge upon a certain player being available when it comes time to select him (if the player is already off the board, the deal falls through, etc)
Now of course the Hornets and the Blazers have changed GMs since then, so any “agreements” that KP and Bowers made would be off the table. But what if Larry Miller and his counterpart with NO have kept in contact and now that they’ve hired their new GMs they’re just waiting for CP3 to issue his ultimatum and for the 30 no-trade period to pass on Babbitt and Williams? All of a sudden, those preliminary discussions that were made prior to draft can be consummated and the assets could change hands, legally
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Because if they had a deal with NO it would have been done already.
That deal would have been approved by Paul Allen and George Shinn before the Blazers trade Webster for some guy NO wants to complete the deal. Then with deal already agreed to it could have been executed without KP and Bowers on July 9 when the moratorium ended by the acting GMs. Most likely they wouldn’t have to sign Babbitt and Williams, they could just include their draft rights in the deal.
It is unlikely the smaller salaries of Babbitt and Williams would be required to match salaries in a CP3 trade (since the matching number is $26M), but if they were then they would have to be signed and 30 days would have to pass before executing the trade. But if that were the case, then you can be sure that Babbitt wouldn’t have been allowed to play in Las Vegas either. They wouldn’t risk losing CP3 because of an injury to Babbitt in the summer league. So I think you can be sure Babbitt was not acquired for a blockbuster trade.
I did speculate before the summer league that it was possible the Blazers weren’t allowing Williams to play because he was going to be included in some deal. That was purely a possibility, not a prediction. I guess that possibility is still alive if a deal eventually required his salary to be included. But in a couple of weeks we can put that idea to bed too.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm just trying to figure out those trades too. How can we get him and not give up our big 3 or 4.
It doesn’t seem possible unless NO has no interest in Oden. I don’t see a deal happening.
by BRoyInThe4th on Jul 25, 2010 3:12 AM PDT up reply actions
expiring contracts probably aren't enough
due to competition among other teams and because I don’t think the Hornets are silly enough to accept a straight salary dump
Can I get an Armon?
Rudy and Batum seem like the least we'd have to send, along with expirings.
And it’d still be a huge steal.
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmortimer
#52
This best formula is probably expiring contracts, some young players, draft picks and take back Okafor.
There are many combinations in my FanPost, but I think what makes the most sense is:
Miller, Przy, Camby (that’s enough for a salary match) + Batum + Rudy (young talent) + draft picks/euros + $3M cash
or
Miller, Przy, LMA, Rudy (but they would want Batum instead) + draft picks/euros + $3M cash
In both of these deals they get $14.6M salary relief after one year from Miller/Przy expiring contracts + $3M cash + they get rid of Okafor’s $52M contract, plus they get young talent.
It would be better for us if they took Camby but they might prefer LMA (and then trade LMA or David West).
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I would prefer a Camby/Pryzbilla trade to an Oden/Przybilla
but I think it’ll take Oden for them to bite.
Maybe we could lowball them at first with Miller, Przybilla, Camby, Rudy, picks, cash and then be like, “Oh have Batum too! That’s a great deal for you!”
Can I get an Armon?
Look at my FanPost that shows all the Blazer combinations for CP3+Okafor, and CP3+Okafor+Posey.
I also listed the CP3+Okafor combinations in this thread (above) as well.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 3:28 AM PDT up reply actions
What if we give up both Batum and Aldridge?
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=22ka9pe
We give up:
Aldridge
Batum
Bayless
Przybilla
Miller
Fernandez
Pendergraph
Babbitt (Trade machine doesn’t allow this, but include him to either Phi or NO)
Get back:
Iguodala
Paul
Maxiell
Speights
Rotation:
PG: Paul / Johnson / Mills
SG: Roy / Matthews / Williams
SF: Iguodala / Matthews / Cunningham
PF: Camby / Maxiell / Cunningham
C: Oden / Speights
The defense of that team is absurdly awesome
Minus Roy (and Mills, who wouldn’t see the floor anyway), every one of those players is an excellent defender.
Rebounding? Check.
Passing? Check.
Scoring? Check.
Outside shooting? Hmm. Not so much.
by dwaynebillybob on Jul 25, 2010 3:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually, Outside shooting isn't much of an issue as well.
CP3 s over 40% from the 3 point line and Roy, AI2, and Wes is all decent. Granted, there is no Kapono type, but that’s enough.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
yes please...
please sir, may i have some more?
That never happens but I love the way you think! Iggy plus Paul back for LMA and Batum? oooh yes.
by avalancheman on Jul 25, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Like Morty et.al.
I never do the what if trade-mania games. However, consider the flip side – which is while we break our skulls with combinations – what, in reality, can any other team offer? They have to be doing the same thing. It’s not as if, after all, anyone on that list has any great advantage with cap space or even players. The fact is the Blazers have some very good pieces, as well as short term expirings. And if NO decides to go into a full rebuilding mode – then starting with West, adding Batum, putting Miller and Collison together to solve the point, and then having $25 million or so in expirings over the next couple of years gives them the flexibility to add a good center and a very good SG. In fact, if Batum goes, then the wings at NO will be in play since he’ll take the minutes. In one sense, NO will be where the Blazers were 4 years back, except rather than starting with Pryz, Roy and Aldridge, they’ll be building around Pryz, West, Batum and Collison. You never know, of course.
Let's hope Cho plays hardball
NO really doesn’t have that many options. Portland gives them the best chance to shed salary, and that is the way it is done in this new era.
so we have a consensus?
Since you can’t lock in Paul more than 2 years, he is not nearly as valuable of a trade commodity for NO and Blazers should NOT offer Batum or Oden or LMA in a trade.
It sounds like they actually offered TOO MUCH in the deal that was being negotiated previously with NO, even though NO apparently wanted even more.
It seems to me the consensus is that you don't trade Batum AND Oden for CP3 and any combination of NO players.
Even that is simply a huge majority opinion and not a true consensus. If we are not offering Batum or Oden or LMA then why are we wasting time? Other teams will make far better offers than you are suggesting and we go into next season with what we have or target a different PG.
There is consensus that there is risk involved if Batum is traded for CP3
I think there is also consensus that we would prefer to have Batum for 7 more years over CP3 for 2 years.
If it came down to "CP3 or no CP3" for LMA or Batum, which would you choose?
To me it’s easy. Nic has more upside and removing LMA’s salary gives the Blazers more flexibility to extend Oden, next fall
Camby may have very well been extended in April with this kind of scenario in mind. Marcus could step in at the 4 and start alongside Greg if LMA is dealt. Batum and Oden could replace most of LMA’s 15 shot attempts per game, and Portland’s front court defense and rebounding would be incredible
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Your points are valid, but you have to ask yourself what will make NO a willing partner in a trade.
If I’m NO I’m asking for Batum. It fits their needs better. We obviously have a better backup at the 4 than the 3. I think we need what LMA brings on offense. I like Batum on defense. I think it would be equally hard to part with either player. To me, most of that makes no difference if NO is asking for Batum and not LaMarcus.
by 52therim on Jul 25, 2010 8:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
There is a lot of interest in Nic around the league, not just from the Hornets
that speaks well of his upside, in addition to what the scouts have been saying
This strong interest should make the Blazers more hesitant to include Batum in a deal, and try to find ways around doing so. This is what makes me look for out-of-the-box alternatives, like a 3-way trade involving LMA.
I also observe that NO just drafted Pondexter and they already have Julian Wright, so they don’t have an immediate need for a young/cheap SF, even though Frenchy should be considered as an upgrade over those 2.
The Hornets also have a soon-to-be 30 year-old David West, who has an ETO next June and he may choose to opt out, especially if CP3 isn’t around anymore. So what do they really need more, a young SF or a starting PF upgrade? (Is Craig Brackins really going to be the long-term answer for them at the 4, or is he more of a career backup?)
So while I can see how NO might insist on Batum (especially Monty) the Blazers don’t have to cave and give the Hornets all that they want. A lot will depend on how desperate New Orleans is to move CP3, and what kind of offers they’re receiving from other teams. I’d play hardball with them re: Nic, because I think the rest of the NBA knows he’s going to be something special, and teams have been trying to pry him away from Portland since at least Feb 09
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by the way
The sure way to make a bad deal is to totally committed to a deal happening.
In order to assure that a fair deal can happen, you have to be willing to walk away if you can’t get the other side to agree to an equitable trade.
That’s why I cringe at all this “get it done” type attitude among the fans.
And also it disgusts me for people to have the attitude that so-and-so manager didn’t git-er-done because some deal didn’t go through.
YOU HAVE TO BE WILLING TO WALK AWAY. And fans that are insistent that a Chris Paul deal happen are simply facilitators for NO to be able to Pritchslap the Blazers.
In the NBA, the team that trades the best player in the deal virtually always loses the trade. The Herschel Walker trade can happen, but it is an exceedingly rare phenomenon. When the best player in the trade has already played two all-time great level seasons and is 25, you’re just discussing how much the team that’s losing him is losing the trade by, not whether they are getting fair value.
FWIW, I wouldn't have any trouble walking away
And I heard that there are some Blazer front office employees who like the current roster just the way it is (sans Fernandez)
I especially like the LMA/Oden/Camby/Przy frontcourt rotation and I don’t think it should be reduced for just “any deal” Really, the only addition Portland “needs” is a younger elite PG, someone in his late 20s like CP3 or Parker. It just so happens that these 2 players are somewhat available, and that doesn’t happen often in the NBA
So I don’t blame fans for getting excited about it, but I hope there’s no “backlash” if CP3 is dealt to a different NBA team and the Blazers start the season with their current roster (minus Rudy)
I have a feeling that Paul Allen and Larry Miller have just as big of a jones for CP3 as any Blazer fan or media member, though, and I think that’s why they hired a GM with complicated deal-making expertise (as Sund and Presti said re: Rich, last week) So what we’re hearing on talk radio and reading on BE may be very indicative of Larry and Paul’s strong desire to make a big splash, and they’re hoping that Cho can tie up all of the loose ends.
I’m hoping Rich prevents Allen and Miller from selling off the crown jewels (Oden, Batum, etc) and finds a better solution by bringing other teams into the equation—making “connections” that KP may not have had relationships in place or the creativity to do?—not to mention Cho will be more able to critically value each of Portland’s assets without an emotional attachment to any of them
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 25, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
someone in his *mid-late 20s like CP3 or Parker
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If he has, I can certainly understand why
I’m sure Rich already knows how good Batum projects to be
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Hmm.
Paul is worth a lot on his own. But I like that Dave looks at the other circumstances as well. Two years left on his contract And one of those is a lockout year? And Paul has expressed his desire to team up with other superstars at the earliest opportunity? And James is in his ear about it?
The only way to stave off the fears is to keep enough talent that Paul already feels lucky to have good players around him. I think that means that one has to definitely keep Roy (already and All-star), and Oden (the Blazer who has the best chance of being an All-Star). And you have to keep one of Aldridge or Batum, to have one more very solid player on the floor. However, if we send Aldridge, then his BYC contract means NO is taking back more salary than they are sending out, and that may make it a no go on their end.
Of course, not including some of the above players may also make it a no go on their end. And, dang the chance at getting Paul makes one think that chances are worth taking. Because Dave is right, you don’t get the chance to trade for a hall of famer in the prime of his career every day, or even every decade.
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
Batum > LMA
Too bad N.O. already has a PF. :(
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
You are not serious, are you?
Someday Batum might be more valuable than LA, but not as of today. His contract yes, but not his contributions.
There is a contingent here who believe Batum
is the basketball equivalent of Clark Kent. They think Superman will emerge (no offense Dwight).
I’m not sure where this all comes from. I’ll be real happy if he’s a very good third-fourth option with great D.
by Jeffe Portland on Jul 25, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Batum IS unusual
He had a 17.3 PER in his second season as a starter. His WS/48 of 0.181 was as good as Bosh…and better than LMA’s….
What is unusual is how quickly Batum has played at such a high level for such a young prospect. He had a WS/48 of .123 in his rookie season – as a starter. Arguably, his high numbers last season might have taken a hit with more playing time – but he did play a significant portion of the season.
What we have is a very very young player demonstrating prodigious talent who may in fact, be a superstar in the making.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think a lot of fans are going to be very surprised with Batum
and not very far down the road they’ll be saying “Whew! wasn’t it great that we didn’t trade Nic back in the summer of 2010?”
All I can tell you is, the scouts love them some Frenchy, and so does Roy. LMA has plateaued, and he’s only going to get fewer touches going forward in Portland so his trade value should decrease as his contract increases. The next 7 months may be the best time to flip him for best value (CP3 or Parker)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think everyone here loves Batum. I don't think anyone will be surprised he'll be good.
What I’m not seeing is him being projected to be a superstar. Other than fans on BE,
can you send me a link form one of these scouts or anyone? I’d appreciate reading up more on this as it excites me to know we have a projected superstar on our team that I didn’t even know as such!
by Jeffe Portland on Jul 25, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
The scouts I've heard from have been interviewed, so no I don't have a link
the most-recent one was Rudy Tomjanovich, who scouts for the L*kers now, but there have been multiple sources from across the league, for at least a year now
and they are all in agreement that Nic is already an important part of Portland’s roster, and he’s projected to be a multiple time all-star. Will he be a superstar equal to Chris Paul? That’s not easy to project for any young player (including John Wall, Derrick Rose, etc), but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to put him into a deal for Chris, this summer. Rudy was even asked if Batum would have a career similar to Pippen’s and he didn’t flinch (like so many Bedgers have) at the comparison.
I think what Frenchy has done at 22 is remarkable, especially considering his shoulder injuries. He came back from being out for months last winter and shot 40/50/83 from 3/2/FT!!! (and he was over 90% at the FT line until be missed a few late in the season.) These are outstanding percentages for any player, but considering he was recovering from shoulder surgery and missed the first 2-3 months of the season, his improvement was near miraculous.
And of course there’s a lot more to Nic’s game than just shooting; he’s the kind of player who doesn’t need plays run for him to be effective, but he was given the opportunity to catch the ball on the wing and score on the dribble pull-up (similar to Outlaw) a few times last year, and his shot was on balance and accurate. The news that Batum is adding a post game to his toolbox will make him even more dangerous in the months to come
So no, I don’t think many Blazer fans realize what the team really has in Batum, yet. And I’m sure they don’t understand how hard Nic would be to replace if he was dealt away, even if that was for an elite PG like CP3 or Parker.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
he’s projected to be a multiple time all-star
Any link please. From any source.
by Jeffe Portland on Jul 25, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
There are no sources that would publicly confirm this
Some former star (Jordan?) once made a Scottie Pippen upside comparison, but I forgot in what context and how serious he was. That ceiling has stuck.
I’m really high on Nic ever since seeing him tear it up in the Nike Hoop Summit when he was like 18 and love his development in the league and his studiousness to learn the game and improve on his own. But so far his upside looks more like a more efficient and better on defense Rudy Gay who plays less and thus has lower totals and isn’t the go-to man on a team. Better Tayshaun Prince and very valuable rotation player on a championship team is a possibility, multiple all-star really remains to be seen/proven.
I could see Nic (further) and Rudy (again) improving their value in the world championships. An independent scout who ironically like t4l I also cannot name predicts Nic will make the all-tournament team. But there hardly is a better target than CP3 anyway, and they wouldn’t reach a new level of value, mainly just confirm the potential another team could see in them.
LIsten, I'm sorry but NBA scouts don't have websites
they have propriety-relative data that is not available to the public, for obvious reasons. The scouts (and other NBA execs) are interviewed occasionally and if you keep your ears open, you’ll hear this kind of a scouting report from time to time. I mentioned Rudy’s name because I remembered it, and it was fairly recent, and because most NBA fans have heard of him. But most of these guys are as unknown to casual fans as Born and Buchanan are, outside of Portland
If I have the opportunity to make a fanshot and transcribe a scouting interview re: Nic in the future, I will. But until then, you’ll just have to be content that I’m not making this stuff up: Batum has tremendous upside and it’s not “Blazer fans” who think so
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree he has tremendous upside
I agree that he could be a multiple time all-star. He could be. He might. Maybe. It’s possible. A few people on here seem to be claiming that that is just a given. If that was so then more than a few people that do have websites would probably be saying so.
I can easily come up with multiple sources of people who see great things in very talented young players. Somehow some think we have a super secret superstar in the making! I don’t see it. He’s probably going to be a very very good valuable piece on a hopefully championship team. This discussion is centered around trading him for Chris Paul. Now I can understand people’s reluctance in trading for Batum, especially thinking that Paul may bolt after a couple years. I doubt that but I can understand the fear. But when people seem to think Batum is untouchable regarding a trade with Chris Paul I have to call them out. It’s crazy.
by Jeffe Portland on Jul 25, 2010 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
No one's untouchable, not even Roy
The point is to give up as little as possible, that’s what we’re discussing as armchair GMs. And it’s an exercise to rate the Blazer players in terms of who is least expendable, based on their current stats and future upside, taking the roster into account.
I’d be more willing to part with LMA than Nic for an elite PG, because (even though LMA is the more impressive player, statistically) I think his job can be filled with players already on the roster and that Batum’s upside is higher.
Plus, when I look back at 40 years of Blazer history, filling the SF position with an all-star talent just hasn’t been done (Cliff Robinson was really a 4 when he was an all-star, otherwise it’s been bupkiss) and so when I see a talent like Frenchy (and hear what NBA scouts are saying about him) I take notice and look for alternatives instead of putting him into any trade proposals.
In the end, Cho may trade Batum for CP3 anyway, but it won’t be an easy choice, and it shouldn’t be portrayed as a no-brainer, IMO
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
This is a little more realistic
though I don’t agree about Lamarcus. I think he’s the most undervalued player here on BE.
by Jeffe Portland on Jul 25, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
LaMarcus has earned his rep
He’s been consistent for 3 years now, and very reliable. But he’s not shown any measurable improvement and (if Oden’s healthy) LMA is going to receive fewer opportunities to score down low, and that means he’ll be a jump shooter who averages 41-44% from 15-20 feet.
Personally, I’d prefer that Batum continue to shoot 40% from behind the 3-point line or Oden take 60% shots near the basket and draw fouls on the opposing big men.
LMA will be very well paid to be a mid-range floor-spreader and an average rebounder and defender at the 4. He does run the floor very well, and if he played with CP3 he’d probably have a few more lay-in opportunities than he’s gotten from Blake and Miller in the past (but Andre’s no slouch as a kick-ahead/lob passer)
15 shot attempts per game for the last 3 years, do you see LMA maintaining that pace as the roster stands today? I’m not saying he’s a dog, he’s just more expendable now than ever, because his salary is due to exceed his projected production (aka WARP) unless there’s a rash of injuries again, or perhaps he’s turned over a new leaf during the offseason?
FWIW, Buck Williams might have a profound impact on LMA, if the two of them have an opportunity to work together, before and during the season
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with you on LMA - but for Batum we only have projections based on what he has done
We generally have two approaches to projecting performance:
1) Use scouting to evaluate physical ability, BBIQ, coachability, etc. etc. and project how could a player could be if he develops full use of his gifts;
2) Use statistics for trend analysis and compare one player against historical trends for similar players.
Batum has done some very interesting things at a very young age (20 years old) – in particular – he was very efficient (17.3 PER) and fills the rest of the stat lines to the tune of .181 WS/48 (which includes PER/adjusted +/-; Defense Approximations, etc.)
Who else has achieved such effectiveness at such a young age (we will ignore minutes played for this game):
James doesn’t count
Iguodala didn’t (hasn’t, never will)
Granger’s age 21 rate was .139 (really good for a rookie) – but he has peaked at .158 (at age 25)
Durant did (made an incredible jump from .138 at age 20 to .238 at age 21)
Bird had a rate of .182 as a rookie at age 23
Pierce didn’t exceed .181 until age 24
Nowitzki didn’t do it until age 22 (and two years ago, was .171)
Rashard Lewis has never done it
Pippen didn’t do it until age 26
Roy did it at age 24 (and even last year, was .180)
Dominique didn’t due it till age 27
Jordan doesn’t count, either
Bryant did it (.202) at age 21 (but, he did have two more seasons under his belt by then)
Nothing is guaranteed – but Batum is considered special for very good reason
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Which is why
whenever there’s a trade discussion with another team, they always seem to want Batum, that’s all the more the reason for the Blazers to resist including Nic in any deal
Conclusion: find another way to acquire CP3 (assuming the Hornets are going to deal him, anytime soon)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
NBA scouts don’t have websites, they have propriety-relative data that is not available to the public, for obvious reasons.
Which is exactly why you should take anything they say in public with a grain of salt. Particularly when, like Rudy T., they are doing a Canzano talk show and asked about the host’s favorite home team players.
But aside from the fact that scouts aren’t going to publicly disclose all their feelings about players, I’d never bet money on them projecting Batum’s all-star future at this point in his career.
Last year at this time there were scouts in Vegas (that you quoted and I also heard) that said Cunningham would be starting within two years. Good luck with that prediction scouts.
Last year the Blazer scouts (and KP) picked Pendergraph before Cunningham in the draft and ignored Blair. Well done scouts.
I think Batum is going to be an excellent player, but I also think things are getting out of hand in projecting his upside. And I was the one saying last summer he would be a better 3-pt shooter last season than Webster, which was criticized by many, many people here. Yet it turned out true. So I’m a Batum supporter, not a detractor.
Could he make multiple all-star teams? Sure. Will he? I don’t know. Has he played at an all-star level yet? No. Is he a player that can lead his team to a championship, or is he an excellent complementary player that championship teams need? That isn’t clear yet either, but I would guess closer to the latter than the former.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Last year at this time there were scouts in Vegas (that you quoted and I also heard) that said Cunningham would be starting within two years.
The scouts that I heard re: Dante were talking about him after he attended a big man’s camp in August, not in July following the Vegas summer league. I’ve also mentioned that it’s unlikely that Cunningham will ever rise to the starting lineup playing in Portland as long as Batum and LMA are entrenched here. Could DC start for another NBA team in 2 years if given the opportunity? Some scouts thought so, last August, and they weren’t being interviewed by Portland media at the time, they shared their opinions freely and those opinions were overheard (or read) and then reported by local media
As far as Batum’s upside is concerned, the stats that blacknoiseNW shared (above) are very telling re: where he is at age 22 versus NBA stars. Of course, no one knows how he will progress, but the scouts are optimistic about his future so I see no reason why Blazers fans shouldn’t be.
What are we guarding ourselves against? If he plateaus like LMA in a couple of years he’ll still be a very good SF for the Blazers, probably the best all-around 3 in franchise history. But what if Nic has the hunger to be great and busts through and becomes another “excellent complementary player” like Scottie Pippen? That’s a potential future that’s worth hanging on to, especially considering how difficult it’s been for this franchise to find even one all-star SF in 40 years of trying
Keep Batum, flip LMA. That’s my take. But only for a true upgrade at PG like CP3 or Parker
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Which is exactly why you should take anything they say in public with a grain of salt.
If I take what NBA scouts say in public with a grain, how small of a percentage of a grain of salt should I take re: comments anonymous BE posters have to say re: Batum’s value and upside
What does the scout have to gain by speaking well of any NBA player to any local media? Very little. In fact, if the scout over-values NBA players to any published news source, he’s taking a risk of tarnishing his reputation. It’s not like Rudy T (etc) is looking for a job in Portland, and he’s got nothing to gain from his L*ker’s perspective if he misleads anyone in Portland about what he thinks about Batum’s upside
So yeah, I’ll continue to hold actual NBA professionals in a higher regard than random Blazer fans on the internet. “We” all know what we know from experience and stats, and all have our own opinions, but NBA scouts and league execs are closer to “EF Hutton” than even Blazer experts like Dave and Ben are, at least to me
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Actually, for me, it's less about what I know about Batum than what i do know about LMA
My brief scouting report on LMA – good/great mid-range jump shooter. average rebounder. sometimes lacks heart. Long. Quick hands. Predictable/shallow two-man game. Content with where his game is at..
Sorry, but that last part about him kills me. Unless you’re the best player on the team – i never, ever what to think that about you. Championship rings don’t get fitted for fingers of team pillars that are content.
Last summer a reporter was at the practice facility looking around. He then asked a passing Nate McMillan where LaMarcus was. Nate responded with something along the lines of “sometimes money changes people.” Why that sticks with me so much i don’t know (perhaps it’s a personal hang-up i have). But i’ll never forget that when talking about Aldridge.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
It's interesting that we never hear LMA's name mentioned in any NBA trade rumors
Perhaps the Blazers prefer to keep it on the “down low”?
Toronto needs a “replacement” for Bosh, and Cho is the master of the 3-4 way trade
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Dave, I think you should ban yourself...
for keeping this crazy topic alive. I don’t care how many questions you get from the crazed CP3 fans (most of which were probably crazed KP worshipers). This topic has just been run into the ground. I know it’s a slow time of year for Blazer news, but come on. Comments like this “If Chris Paul failed a physical you’d still do it. It’s a slam dunk” make no sense at all. Seriously, you’d trade away any except the “core group” plus draft picks and Mt. Hood for someone who can’t pass a physical. I know it’s been real hot out. I think you were in the sun way too long yesterday if you are seriously saying this!
I tend to agree with you
in those rare moments that I’m not busy reading every word I can find about how CP3 could be a Blazer.
by MiledAnimal on Jul 25, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Agree/Disagree
See my comments below…I agree about passing a physical.
But people complaining about discussing the topic? Yes, it’s been big news. But given recent statements by Chris Paul his apparent availability status seems to be in flux. If he becomes available then it is big news and The Blazers interest becomes central. You cannot ignore the topic, even if it has been discussed by everyone too much.
I don’t understand people wasting time complaining about wasting time talking about Chris Paul. Especially on the internet…if you don’t want to talk about it, or recognize the topic? Well the headline is CHRIS PAUL EDITION…Dave pretty much defines it as his separate thoughts about the Chris Paul situation…tired of the talk? Don’t read it…don’t click on it..don’t be suprised.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Yeah, Dave...
shouldn’t we be talking about Patty versus Armon or whether Rudy will be assigned to the Idaho Stampede? I can understand being tired of the CP3 talk, but calling Dave out for analyzing all the CP talk and giving his take? Really?
Fantastic Analysis
Great evalutations of the nuts and bolts and in’s and outs of a hypothetical Chris Paul trade. I think I agree with almost everyything….almost….except…
" If Chris Paul failed a physical you’d still do it."
No.
As great as Chris Paul is? And he is great. Has this franchise not been the poster boy franchise for the reality that talent and skills become useless in the face of injury? I think your analysis was spot on and as indepth as any I’ve read, but even 1/2 joking you need to rethink that sentence.
An injured or unhealthy Chris Paul is just a Superstar in street clothes and The Blazers do not need that, nobody does.
Great Piece…except for 10 words.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
3 team deal.
I think everyone gets something they desire.
by Rattlehead KOK on Jul 25, 2010 10:12 AM PDT reply actions
That's what a forum like this is for...
expressing opinions and choosing whether or not to respond to those opinions. Dave’s a journalist and a big boy. I assume he can handle negative responses. I’ve also called out Ben for his over the top love affair with KP and his seemingly all too personal vendetta against PA and the V word.
Nobody (certainly not me) is confusing this forum with hard core, research based journalism. It’s written by Blazer fans for Blazer fans. It probably wouldn’t sit very well with readers if Dave simply said “let’s stop talking this CP3 trade to Porltand talk because it ain’t gonna happen”. The forum’s for giggles for the most part, and that’s just fine with me. I just hope no one takes any of this stuff too seriously.
You may have a point that BEdgers have talked this subject to death...
But Dave hasn’t exactly weighed in with his analysis of the possible trade. When a first team NBAer lists you as 1 of 4 teams he would want to go to to try and compete for a title… that is not manufactured news. This Mailbag feature has been a regular post from Dave lately. What do you think Dave is getting in his inbox lately? You can disagree with Dave and I’m sure you were exaggerating about banning Dave, but this seems like an odd choice of subject to call him out on. My point was, on BE, we spend time deliberating the 15th roster spot. If I care what Dave has to say about that, I certainly want his take on Paul. I can certainly understand some CP fatigue, however.
by 52therim on Jul 25, 2010 9:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Should have been a response to 52therim
I guess whatever you’ve got is catching 8<)!
Chris Broussard update here.
In addition to Orlando and New York, Dallas and Portland are on Paul’s list. The New Orleans Times-Picayune reported on Friday that Paul’s agent Leon Rose reached out to all four teams this week.
Rose contacting the Blazers makes our chances of landing Paul more legit.
I wonder if Cho took the call
or if it went to Larry Miller?
Remember, Paul’s agent wouldn’t be discussing what the Hornets want in return as much as he’d be brainstorming re: CP3’s potential endorsement opportunities (and Larry is the former Nike employee…)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That is especially important because
it means Paul is probably willing to do a contract extension, and that is essential for any team (ie., Orlando, Dallas and Portland, but probably not the Knicks) that would have to give up meaningful talent. That, in effect, clears one of Dave’s 3 big hurdles.
by blazerwizard on Jul 25, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
My heart would hurt as well if Batum was traded. I might get over it if the Blazers won a
Batumless championship BUT….I want so much more for the Blazers to win a championship…WITH Batum here!!!!
I remember one of his “exit” interviews at the end of last season.
He was asked about next season. He said: “we can win a title next year”.
That is the answer of a winner and this is part of why I love Batum.
No “we will try to win”….it was WE CAN WIN.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j-ZoQB1F-0&feature=player_embedded
If Rich Cho is indeed the guy who not only looks at making moves for the current situation, but also the one who looks at what makes the team better in the future;
I have to say he won’t sign Paul to a non-extended contract.
And he finds a way to keep Batum. The guy is talented, hard working, HAPPY, very very smart and he has the attitude of a CHAMPION.
Totally agree
Batum also has a huge advocate in Roy. (This is not to say that Brandon is calling the shots, he certainly didn’t have the pull to keep Travis and Steve around.) I just think that Nic is the “lubricant” in the Blazer’s lineup, and if he’s removed the lineup will be less effective, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
I can’t stop thinking about how much better the team played in Feb-April when Camby and Batum were inserted in the starting lineup, the Blazers went on a very nice run and improved from being on the WC playoff bubble to a solid 6th seed, and they only stubbed their toe in the playoffs because Roy’s knee, Camby’s ankle and Batum’s shoulder weren’t healthy
Batum has the heart of Jerome Kersey and a much better feel for the game. These are guys you hold onto
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Batum has one year left
on his contract. Can’t we offer him an extension and would that make any difference in a trade? Was thinking if he was being paid more then maybe we wouldn’t have to give up as much. And regardless, shouldn’t the blazers offer an extension anyways so he’s not a free agent next year?
no
Batum is under contract next year and has a team option for the year after that, which the Blazers are almost guaranteed to pick up. We can’t discuss an extension with him until next summer.
Way to mix it up, Dave!
“brokeback” movie/“eye of the needle” bible combos rock! Profane meets sacred. It’s like fatty pork loin with a nice mole’ sauce. So nice.
We sure are spending a lot of time discussing something about as likely to happen as B-Roy being the MVP this season. At least we fans can actually root for the latter.
Rich Rolled
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jul 25, 2010 11:39 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
We need to give value to get value in this case
and if the Hornets are satisfied with some form of Batum, LMA, Miller, JPEC, Camby and filler (Bayless, Rudy, Cunningham, a rookie or Euro) that is a steal and we are #1 or #2 in the West heading into the season depending on how you feel about the health of Kobe and Bynum. Oden makes it a closer case, and I go back and forth hourly on whether Greg is a deal breaker, but hopefully a non-Oden scenario can come to fruition.
James, Wade, and Bosh = the Nazgul. Once they were great kings, until their greed got the best of them in their lust for the ring.
the key to the whole deal is...
…what do the owners expect the new cba to say? if the owners expect to have an even greater difference between what bird right teams and new teams can pay a FA, then NO should play hardball with chris paul, because he isn’t a huge money endorsement guy, he probably wouldn’t walk from a new 100mm contract, if for example the knicks could only pay 70 million. with all the changes stern wants, i bet building in this disparity will be a part of it. interesting idea to have the instant extension. is that possible?? paul would be crazy to turn that down, because no matter what, the new cba will lower salaries. instead of income, it might be “net income”, just that would lower the cap 20%.
I think you got this backwards Dave
He even has the all-important superstar quality of two first names!
Better version:
The only real problem with acquiring him is his two first names, when two last names is clearly better. I guess the big question would be can he ever truly overcome that weakness to become a champion
#teamtwolastnames
It has to be Oden
By now, you’ve either decided he’s Bill Russell or Sam Bowie; there’s nothing anyone can do to change your mind.
But lets talk about the other 3 options for CP3.
Roy isn’t happening unless there is a 3rd team involved. As much sense as it may make from a basketball perspective, Portland fans are too attached. Roy is committed here and the fans here are committed to him. Furthermore, what good does it do for NO to downgrade their star player and make a long-term commitment to a guy when they want to sell the team. If NO trades Paul they are in rebuild/sell mode. Roy would need to go to a 3rd team who can provide a younger/cheaper asset.
Aldridge isn’t happening. Aldridge is a nice player but he’s not a bargain. He’s not nearly as attractive of a trade chip as Portland fans pretend he is. The questionable contract he has makes him unattractive to other teams because he’s no better than a 3rd or 4th best guy on a championship contending team. Particularly for NO, who has West, he doesn’t have the value that brings an all-nba talent like Paul.
Batum. He has value, and if you take the Bowie view, more than Oden. He’s young, fits pretty much any team, and still has room to grow. But then…he’s not the kind of guy you build your team around. He’s a piece you add. He’s Tayshaun Prince. A world class complementary piece, but still, ultimately, a complementary piece. Not something you trade Paul for.
By process of elimination, it has to be Oden. No one, not even his biggest critics question the potential there. He’s young. He’s cheap (for another year at least). He’s, at least potentially, a franchise-caliber talent – the thing that you’re willing to deal a franchise talent for. He’s the only piece that can potentially redeem this situation for New Orleans.
As for the Blazers end, you have to do it. You just have to. Portland fans can get all emotional about their favorite players, but any objective fan knows you add a hall-of-fame player in his prime whenever you can. For all of Oden’s promise and potential, he’s is unquestionably a major risk. That risk lowers his value way below Paul’s. Any objective basketball fan can see that. The Blazers have to say yes, particularly with Camby and Przybilla and Aldridge on the roster.
Sweat the details if you want, but unless New Orleans gets desperate theres no way they’re dealing Paul for Batum or Aldridge or Roy or none of the above. Maybe you can talk yourself into some flawed logic where they would, or maybe you can engineer a far-fetched 3 team scenario that pleases all sides, but both are pretty unlikely. If you’re new Orleans you have to get back HOPE for a brighter future. Oden’s the only one who can provide that. For Portland, the time to win is now. Roy and Aldridge are in their prime. Batum is approaching his. Camby and Pryzbilla are vets. Miller is valuable as a trade chip becase of his contract. The time is now. Oden for Paul…the rest is details.
To get it done, I think it takes both Oden and Batum in addition to the expiring contracts
Can I get an Armon?
Then forget about it!!!! It should not take both Oden and Batum. Where is that GM from Memphis when you need him????
Can we possibly trade HIM to NO so we can get this deal done with say….Rudy and Miller’s expiring contract?
I fear you are correct
Giving up Oden hurts more than giving up Batum, IMO. But I still do it. You get a chance to land a player like Paul – an MVP candidate – and you take it.
It seems like there are some interesting $$ implications to a trade like this
Batum is going to be a Guy that is sticky defining a value for. Not a max guy but some team could really want him in a couple years when he could be a RFA. Oden’s value similarly is hard to define. Both could get big contracts that they fail to justify. We all think Batum has great potential but no guarantees he becomes a near star level player.
CP3 on the other hand is clearly a max-level player. If he is healthy, certainly not a greater risk than for Batum and Oden, he is going to justify that contract. I still think you can’t send both guys for Paul, but PA could be more comfortable with a CP3 contract.
by 52therim on Jul 25, 2010 10:12 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Perhaps
But maybe its just a matter of time. Eventually, NO HAS to make a move right? But its to the Blazers benefit to push for something by the start of the season rather than at the trade deadline.
I don’t think the Hornets can get a better offer than Oden, so Batum isn’t needed unless you want to accelerate the timeline.
Unless salary dumping is the prime objective, NO will want the most talent they can get in return. Other teams can compete with Batum-level talent, and they can offer more salary cap relief in return, but no one can match the potential of Oden.
All that said…if the price is Batum and Oden, you still say yes.
by don maxingly on Jul 25, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
The other thing about Oden...
how valuable is he in a year?
Either A) He stays healthy and looks like he’s progressing towards Bill Russell
B) He gets hurt again and looks like he’s progressing towards Sam Bowie or
C) Something in between…maybe hes healthy but questions arise about his limitations and long-term potential or maybe he’s dinged up regularly but no major injuries occur.
If A happens, he gets a Max offer from someone, without question. Portland will then have to match and we’re talking about an enormously expensive roster. The worries about Paul’s potential costs certainly go out the window then.
If B happens, his star has dimmed and you look like a fool for not getting Paul when you could.
If C happens, probably still, some team is going to overpay for Oden’s potential. Which forces the Blazers to also overpay, or give him away.
Once Oden is paid 12-17M a year, fans won’t be so warm and forgiving.
This is a long way of saying, its even more risky than most think to keep Oden. Right now is an IDEAL time to move him, unless of course he is Bill Russell afterall.
by don maxingly on Jul 25, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
its even more risky than most think to keep Oden. Right now is an IDEAL time to move him
No, it’s not. Greg’s trade value is low because he’s seen across the NBA as an injury risk and he hasn’t played a game since last December
If the Blazers want to flip Oden, they should shop him during preseason, after the rest of the league has the opportunity to see him on the floor. If he looks healthy and dominant (again) his trade value will soar. And if the deal can be done in time for his new team to sign him to an extension (before Nov 1) then they would enjoy cost-certainty.
If Portland decides not to extend (or trade) Oden in October, he’ll still have more trade value at the February deadline than he has this summer, as long as he’s remained healthy and dominant. Greg’s new team would have his Bird rights and they could match whatever offer he receives, next summer
Buy low, sell high. Trading Oden right now would violate that basic investment guideline
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah, Greg Oden's trade value is flat-out awful right now in comparison to his untapped potential.
Nicolas Batum, however, probably has an irrationally high trade value across the NBA, which is why using him to acquire a superstar like Chris Paul — or even a star like Andre Iguodala, who’d be my fallback plan if CP3 goes elsewhere — would be a shrewd move.
At any rate, though, I deem Oden and Brandon Roy to be the two untouchable players on this roster.
I wouldn't trade Batum in a package for Iggy
but you already knew that.
If “shrewd” means giving another NBA team a young player who is desired by virtually every other NBA team, then I’d rather that the Blazers be the opposite of shrewd
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
By now, you’ve either decided he’s Bill Russell or Sam Bowie; there’s nothing anyone can do to change your mind.
I’m expecting closer to Artis Gilmore, which would still be pretty good
19/12/2 ppg/rpg/bpg for a 17 year pro career, 58% from the floor? I’ll take that. (Greg will have to change his uniform number to 53 in a couple of years, though)
Rich Cho may be looking at Greg’s knee injuries and arriving to a similar conclusion, that Oden is a health risk and should be flipped as soon as possible. Perhaps. But the rest of the league needs to see big Greg back on the court before he’s an attractive asset again, right now he only has Artis Gilmore-like potential.
Put yourself in the shoes of a Hornet’s fan and you hear that CP3 is traded for Greg Oden and change. Are you going to be happy with Demps? There would probably be an outcry and the fans would think they were getting damaged goods, and the GM and coach would have to go on a major PR offensive to talk the tickets holders back off the ledge.
Greg’s not going to have the kind of clout in a trade until this fall, assuming his rehab goes well and he’s smashing rims in preseason. By then, the CP3 deal may already be done. I think the players to flip are Miller-LMA-Przy along with a lot of young assets not named Batum. A third team would almost certainly have be involved to accept LMA’s BYC salary (Toronto, etc) Can it be done? It depends how desperate NO is, after hearing from Chris tomorrow. I think there’s a strong desire from Larry Miller and Paul Allen to make a big splash, and Rich Cho is the right kind of GM to put a multi-team deal together
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
How anybody around here can seriously argue keeping Batum
instead of giving him up as the last chip in a trade for Chris Paul is completely beyond me. That kind of thinking makes Portland bush league.
Yes... we don't have to give up Batum
Read my posts above.
Which player would be an easier sell to NO fans or owner…. Batum or Granger?
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
No go on Granger
The guys arguing with you above are right. The Pacers may indeed be willing to part with Granger, but they can get back way more than Randolph for him.
They’re obviously playing for the future. Miller is OK for them, better than Ford certainly, but they have no reason to give up the biggest asset they have (even at that contract rate) for him.
Miller just isn’t worth it. Thats why the Blazers got him for so “cheap”.
Now if the Blazers were willing to give up LMA…a Granger to NO/Paul to PDX/LMA to Indy scenario would work…but Andre Miller? His value is negligible.
Also, many people view George as 2.
by don maxingly on Jul 25, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
"but Andre Miller? His value is negligible."
I don’t know if you watched any of his play in the second half of the season but I’m sure Bird did.
by spencerbutte on Jul 25, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions
age catches us all
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
How anybody around here can seriously argue keeping Batum
instead of giving him up as the last chip in a trade for Chris Paul is completely beyond me. That kind of thinking makes Portland bush league.
Reportedly, the Blazer’s front office (KP, Miller, Allen, Born, Buchanan) argued this very point before the draft, so I guess that means that they’re “bush league” eh?
The consensus (if the reports are accurate) was that they would be willing to include Batum in the deal, but the decision wasn’t as cut and dried as it would seem to be, based on your response
And I’m hoping that with the hiring of Cho (and the pressure on the Hornets that may be coming tomorrow, from Chris) that Portland will have more “leverage” in these negotiations than they did back in June
Rich is going to make a deal where all parties are satisfied with the results, that’s his MO. That gives me hope that he’ll keep blue chip assets like Batum and flip some of his excess chips who are cheap but still have solid upside
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Here's a scenario I'd not considered:
And ESPN’s John Hollinger tossed out a trade of Paul, James Posey and Julian Wright to the Blazers for Brandon Roy and Joel Przybilla, with Andre Miller going to a third team.
His explanation on why it could work:
- Ryan Corazza
ESPN’s John Hollinger
Hornets would remain competitive
“Hornets stay competitive with Darren Collison-Roy-David West-Emeka Okafor and 11 cap space; Blazers promote Wesley Matthews, sidestep alpha-dog issue [between Roy and Paul].”
That's what has been said. Roy is valuable no doubt. But Hollinger does have a POINT (sorry about the pun)
about the alpha dog thing. I could see last year when Roy seemed to be bugged by Oden’s popularity. Maybe he’s progressed beyond that now.
The only incident that I remember
was during preseason when Roy and LMA met with Nate on the plane and were assured they would still be “option 1 and option 2” in the offense
of course, this dovetailed with McMillian’s decision to start Blake at PG and bring Miller off the bench with the “2nd unit” at the beginning of the year
but as the season went on, Miller and Oden were making a great “connection” and Greg would smile when he saw Andre check into the game, because he knew that Miller was able (willing?) to feed him the ball much more often than the starters. ’Dre and Greg had some nice give-and-gos where Oden hit Miller backdoor with passes that led to easy baskets, and they were really developing a synergy right up until the time that Greg hurt his knee
So, perhaps this has something to do with the “alpha dog” comments. Personally, I think it’s all garbage. Because as the season went along Roy’s game (and attitude) morphed to where he could play off the ball alongside Andre, and he’s made comments that that’s how it’s going to have to be again next year, regardless if Miller or whoever is the PG.
If there’s anyone who’s going to have to make an “adjustment” next year re: Oden, it’s LMA. I don’t see how he’s going to get the 15 shots per game that he’s received the last 3 years with a healthy Greg in the starting lineup, and I’m not sure how LMA will respond to that. He probably won’t say much, but will he step his game up in other areas? (Passing? Rebounding? Defense?) I’d like to hear Blazers fans with an optimistic take re: this, because I sure can’t fake one
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
This is one of the things I was referring to. The "options". And when I went to the games
I could see it in Roy’s body language..how he reacted to the Oden chants. He wasn’t totally happy about this…
I do know what he said in an interview during the summer league and hope very much that he will be able to put actions to what he said!!!
For the good of the team and winning…being a leader means not always getting his way.
Even if Brandon Roy humbles himself and recognizes the greatness of Greg Oden's ...
on-court impact, he’s still not apt at making post entry passes and doesn’t do too well at facilitating the pick-and-roll as a distributor. Also, as two4larue alluded to above, Roy’s laziness at off-ball movement makes him not much of a threat at cutting and finishing on give-and-go plays like Andre Miller was this past season.
That’s why I want to move LaMarcus Aldridge to a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers — particularly for a defensive-minded 4 such as Anderson Varejao — as well as bring in Chris Paul, since Roy’s glaring flaws on both offense and defense would be somewhat compensated for in that scenario.
New Orleans beat writer for the Times-Picayune (similar to the Oregonian) thinks Paul will formally demand a trade at meeting tomorrow http://www.nola.com/hornets/index.ssf/2010/07/chris_pauls_agent_is_plotting.html
Also AOL fanhouse is quoting the Magic’s GM and coach that Orlando landing Chris Paul is unlikely (if he gets traded at all): “Okafor’s Contract Makes Chris Paul to Orlando Unlikely”
Okay so.
BE Got hacked by some turkish dude? maybe we shouldn’t have talked so much S about Hedo :P
Silent Swagger.
i'd rather give up LMA than Batum
LMA was 12 out of 16 PF’s in western conf in rebs/game. He showed in the playoffs that he can’t pass out of a double-team, and whose low-post moves don’t scare anybody.
I still think
Batum is the capstone, the key to Blazer championships—not Oden. This doesn’t mean I’m not high on Oden still—far from it!—but I keep seeing Batum at 20/21 and doing the things he does already, and seeing little in the way that blocks development into the classic All-Star wingman for Roy (and I use wingman both as a position reference and as his supporting complement).
I’d do it for LA, much as I think LA quietly proved something to his doubters in the 2nd half last year. Ultimately however he’s replaceable. I have a really hard time imagining who the Blazers get to replace what I think Batum will provide, and for anywhere near the money. (I wouldn’t do it for Oden or Roy, either obviously).
So I’m prepared for Portland to Pass on Paul. If Cho can work a miracle, Kevin Who?
I think LA quietly proved something to his doubters in the 2nd half last year.
Proved what? That his career has indeed plateaued? LMA is not going to have a better opportunity to be “the man” for he Blazers than he did last year, when the rest of the big men were injured. He’s 24 and he’s been in the league for 4 years. We know he can give a contending team 18/8 which is nice, but he’s going to be paid like an all-star to be a complementary player, at least in Portland.
So we agree that he’s replaceable, at least when compared to Roy-Oden-Batum. It remains to be seen if Co and the Blazers agree. If LMA is not traded for an elite PG this offseason, then I hope Buck Williams can reach down inside LMA and Greg and find a way to rev their motors, because if the two of them can play with a snarl then the Blazer’s front court is going to be feared, PDQ
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
not nearly enough data to confirm, or even guess, that LMA has plateaued
too many comps out there that show regular dips in year-to-year effectiveness followed by even better performance.
List of bigs that had their best seasons after age 24:
Duncan (best years were ages 25-30 – much better than his pre-25 years)
Ewing (who followed a sharp decline from 27 – 28 and 29 – 30 to peak at age 31)
O’Neal (as in Shaq)
O’Neal (Jermaine actually did plateau at age 24)
Malone (Karl)
Robinson (D. – had his best season at age 28 following a sharp decline from age 26 to 27)
Gilmore (A. – had his best years as a rookie and sophomore, but following a big drop his junior season – rebounded to very high levels for several years – though never to the levels of his first two campaigns in the ABA)
Garnett peaked in years 26-28 (big jump from his age 23-25 run)
Gasol dropped from his age 24 through 26 seasons, but picked it up in a very big way when he joined the Lakers – peaking from his second half of the age 27 through 29 seasons…
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
We would expect a player to put up his best years in the 25-30 range
but that’s different from pointing out Aldridge made no improvement in season 3 and 4. We would hope to see at least some improvement from a young player getting a lot of touches. And as two4larue said, Aldridge had ample opportunity to step up when the other bigs went down and when Roy was struggling, but he didn’t.
Can I get an Armon?
that point of view isn't supported by available data
regarding point 1 (no improvement between 3rd and 4th seasons) – that isn’t a predictor of future performance – not using the list of bigs that I posted.
Regarding point 2 (stepping up) – I think Gasol is a perfect counterpoint. Gasol was at his best when paired with a better player (Gasol has been so much better paired with Kobe vs. being THE MAN it is amazing). That is because he, like LMA, is a complimentary player (albeit a good one).
Intuitively, I think LMA will be better with a healthy squad around him. He won’t create his own shot off the dribble, much – but he is a very effective finisher.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions
To me
NBA history suggests LMA is what he is— a weak rebounding jump shooting inefficient but skilled PF.
His game has basically gone unchanged since his 2nd season. What was once promising, is now stale. He is mostly an offensive player who simply isn’t good enough on offense to only be an offensive player. He’s not horrible defensively, but he lacks energy for long stretches of time, and is not a good interior defender.
Since we switch so much, it helps he can cover perimeter players well, but that’s not the most important type of defense for a PF. He is very weak at shutting down the middle.
The best part of his game is his offense, and his offense is not that good. I’d rather have a hard playing role player who will play great defense and take open shots, over an inefficient offensive-minded player. Not with guys like Oden, Roy, Batum, and whoever else on the team.
Keeping LMA on the team isn’t the end of the world, but NBA history suggests that when a young player stays the same for 3 seasons, that is who the young player is. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a huge jump in his game— nor do I think his current game fits our team when healthy.
Mortimer
#52
there is nothing invalid about this point of view
but I predict a Gasol-like transformation so long as LMA is surrounded by talent. LMA will perform better the better the team around him.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree he will look better with better players around him
I still question whether his game fits, since he’s not a glue-type player that guys like Roy and Oden (CP3?) need… he’s a focal point type player who expects other glue guys to compensate for him.
If ya know what I mean. He doesn’t really show the “want” to play hard defense and pick his game up when we need him.
Gasol was also a very good (and underrated at the time of the trade) player before he was a stupid Laker… playing next to Kobe didn’t suddenly make him good, it just put him in a better role. But he was the same player before and after. He didn’t improve by being a Laker.
M—
#52
tsk tsk
Gasol has had WS/48 of .239, .223, and .220 since joining the Lakers. His previous high was .184 (twice 04/05 and 05/06).
The same year he joined the Lakers, his performance went from .129 as a Grizzly to .239 as a Laker.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Ehhhh I dunno is WS is the best way to see his improvements
His rebounding stayed relatively the same (except for a career year this recent season), his assist rate went down a bunch along with his usage, his efficiency went up since he wasn’t the first option anymore but he was always an efficient player…
His game didn’t change much. He just got in a better situation.
What will LMA do differently once we’re healthy? How do you envision his game changing?
—M
#52
If we wanna go by made up formulas
I prefer PER to WS anyways, though neither are the best way to analyze a player… just to see if they’re doing good stuff.
His PER has stayed the same. About a 22 PER.
I favor looking at rebounding rate, assist rate, block rate, efficiency in scoring, etc, over a general formula like WS or PER. And Gasol’s efficiency went up once he wasn’t the first option— though he was efficient before. LMA is very non-efficient, and mainly shoots jumpers. That is inherently not an efficient way to score no matter what option he is, or who he is surrounded by.
—M
#52
I wonder why his WIN share improved when he moved from the Grizzles to the Fakers
I’m guessing it’s because the Fakers put up 20-25 more wins every year.
Can I get an Armon?
You mean the list of bigs composed entirely of (future) hall of famers
and a guy who should be a hall of famer?
and it’s no improvement between 2 and 3 as well as 3 and 4. Two straight seasons without improvement isn’t a good sign. There are very few elite players who do that. There are guys like Shaq, Duncan, Robinson who were great the moment they hit an NBA court and guys like Garnett, Malone and Ewing who were okay coming into the league but improved steadily in their first few seasons. Aldridge follows neither of those paths.
Can I get an Armon?
well, basketball-reference.com disagrees
almost one of those on the list showed fluctuations in performance during development to their peak years. But yes – I picked the obvious names on purpose (good enough for conversation – not good enough to justify a trade).
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I was just on basketball reference to make sure my point was essentially correct
Garnett, Malone and Ewing all started out okay and improved, sometimes substantially, in their 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons. Their progress was upward in their early years.
Other elite guys started elite to being with (PERs in the 20s) and didn’t have much improvement early because they were already good.
Aldridge fits neither of those groups. He’s neither elite already nor has he shown consistent/substantial improvement since year 2.
Can I get an Armon?
not sure if we are looking at the same data
LMA went from 0.113 WS/48 to 0.151 in years 2-3.
LMA did have a down year last year – but the idea that a player can’t have a drop before an incline isn’t true.
If you want to pick specific seasons (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.) you can – but that would require a lot more analysis to make any effective conclusions. Other than that, my rebuttal to the idea that LMA has plateaued at age 24 holds.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you're focusing on win shares too much
especially since the Blazers win total jumped substantially in his first 3 seasons
Can I get an Armon?
I'd be happy to use other composites if they were available
We only have WARP for two seasons. WS at least is an additive composite.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions
There are other stats we can use. PER, off/def efficiency, non composite stats
I think comparing win shares across years where a team increases its win total can be misleading. Is a player’s increased win share a product of his improvement or because his team has given him a large “pie” of wins for which he gets a similar cut of percentage wise.
Can I get an Armon?
He had a better year rebounding
Is why his WS went up most likely, since it overrates rebounding.
His shooting has flatlined, he shoots the same or more from the outside than ever, his efficiency has stayed the same, his shotblocking has PLUMMETED… what aspect of his game besides his WS stat (which is just a general stat) has he improved on?
I would say he has not really improved in any substantial way and has gotten worse in many regards.
M—
#52
LaMarcus Aldridge is crap compared to Pau Gasol. Unlike Aldridge, Gasol is an average ...
man-to-man post defender, adequate weakside help defender and shot blocker, efficient low-post scorer, pro at drawing fouls, and wonderful passer for someone his size. Aldridge, on the other hand, is a weak man-to-man post defender, lazy weakside help defender and shot blocker, inefficient mid-range jump shooter, ninny at forcing contact, and has terrible handles for even a 4.
While Aldridge definitely could put more effort in providing weakside help by rotating back on defense and being a decent shot blocker, there’s no indication he can improve on the other facets. As it is, Aldridge’s tall, slender frame makes him easy to push around one-on-one inside, he’s always been low-motor on offense at shooting jumpers and not drawing fouls, and players who enter the NBA with poor handles have a history of never improving on it.
At this juncuture, Aldridge is who he is and, well, that’s that. To me, it’s completely foolhardy to con one’s self into believing otherwise.
and Gasol became non-crap relative to LMA-type production when he teamed with Kobe
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagreed with that notion up above
You can see from his basketball reference numbers that he was quite good before, and similar after the trade. He just got put on a better team, and in a better role as a sidekick, since he’s not a A-1 player to lead a team.
In fact, his best statistical years were as a Grizzlie. Overall, he’s been the exact same player that he was before the trade— the trade didn’t unlock anything. Just put it in a different light.
Now I agree LMA is less worrisome when he’s not option #2, but still maintain that his game—since it will likely stay as it is, just like Gasol’s did once surrounded by better players— doesn’t fit.
M—
#52
which stats are you using?
these arguments only have real meaning using some sort of composite stat (whatever their warts).
WS/48 is an effective baseline – and I quoted those numbers that disagree completely with the idea that he was better at Memphis. If you don’t want to use WS or WS/48 – then the only viable alternative is WARP.
However, I don’t think WARP data is readily available for Gasol’s Memphis years.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions
again
You’re focusing way too much on one metric while ignoring other metrics and “normal” stats (points, rebounds, etc). Every metric has positives and negatives; there is no one best metric.
Can I get an Armon?
And I ain't saying "use normal stats"
Not per-game stats— those are affected by pace and all that noise. It varies.
But use percentages… he has stayed the same, except he had a better year rebounding the ball on the defensive end.
Why do we need to use WS when we can break it down more accurately? I hope it’s not because WS is the only number showing improvement with LMA…
—M
#52
no one "best", obviously
but a composite stat synthesizes all the available information into a single number convenient for conversation. If you have to refute the stat to make the argument – there really isn’t anything to talk about until one of us invents a new, bulletproof metric.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Why use someone's made up formula?
Why not use the actual numbers?
It’s the same stuff the formula is using, without cranking up the importance of this and that and whatnots.
-M
#52
it's all subjective
a composite has one additional advantage: it allows us to quickly approximate total contribution.
If you don’t use a composite – you then must pick and choose the weights used for contributing measurables arbitrarily. With a composite – you can at least focus on the weaknesses without trying to negotiate the entire spectrum of measurable performance.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly, all of these amalgamative stats are imperfect -- including WS ...
and WARP — which is why viewing individual per-minute/pace-adjusted stats like eFG%, TS%, ORB%, DRB%, AST%, TOV%, STL%, BLK%, USG% is the way to go here. It helps to analyze adjusted +/- to some extent, too, particularly on defense. Oh, and if we’re going to use some catch-all stat, PER is probably the best way to compare Pau Gasol’s production to LMA.
But yeah, I’m personally not big on Win Shares — http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html — as a metric. I’m not high on PER, either, for it overvalues high-usage players and doesn’t account for defense, but at least John Hollinger is open about its flaws.
Wait, why do we need a composite stat
When we can look at all of his individual numbers right there?
WS, WARP… why not look at the specific numbers the formula is drawing from, such as rebounding percentage, shooting percentages, block percentage, and the like? Why trust some made up formula when the truth is right there to look at unfiltered?
—M
#52
because I don't have all night to chat :)
convenience, mostly.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Heehee
Well, when a flawed composite stat like WS gets brought up, it usually sidetracks the conversation anyways :-)
Going by Gasol and LMA’s percentages, not only is Gasol much better pre-Lakers, he basically stayed the same level of player— just more efficient with the better players around him.
But enough about stat stuff… what do you actually see LMA doing better, with healthy Oden and Roy and maybe CP3? What tangible actual ways do you see his game improving?
Definitely not asking snarkily, I am genuinely wondering how you see it develop.
M—
#52
no single number perfectly captures relative value
but if I were to focus on one: I’d want LMA to pattern his shot selection off of Gasol’s.
LMA: 65% outside; 36% inside
Gasol: 39% outside; 61% inside
That alone would transform LMA from inefficient sidekick to fallback weapon.
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, no doubt
That is why LMA is so inefficient— he shoots mostly jumpers. He’d be a lot better player if he switches to shooting mostly on the interior.
I don’t think we’ve seen anything to suggest he will stop scoring the same way he’s always scored. That would be a HUGE change for him to switch his inside/outside ratio like that… even splitting it 50/50 would be a huge dramatic change.
He hasn’t really showed the inclination to WANT to score inside more. Heck, with all of our injuries, he could have scored inside more if he wanted to… he seems to prefer the jumper, the fadeaway, and to not get to the FT line. For whatever reason.
I think expecting his shot selection to change that dramatically isn’t realistic, but anything could happen.
—Mortimer
#52
Every stat has flaws, including composites
If we e.g. take the a bit infamous Wins Produced by Berri, that stat is known to overvalue rebounding. Thus it makes Joel look awesome, and LaMarcus like junk.
I like PER, but PER is known to get better if you "call your own number" a bit more while still staying efficient.
Win Shares is nice as well, or WARP, or whatever. But there is no perfect metric yet. As with business models to analyze companies, it typically pays to look through different “lenses” to evaluate a situation or player. How does model X make a player look, how does model Y, how do raw stats, how does video analysis in certain situations, and even the very subjective "does he look like a real*baller" over the course of a game or a season eye test.
With LaMarcus, my feeling was always that he has all the tools to be a very very good player. But he doesn’t bring it all together, for whatever reason. His defense hasn’t improved since college (or regressed when it comes to help defense/blocks), he plays a bit like Jerryd does on offense only deciding on one thing he wants to do without actively reading how the play develops, and on offense he has largely remained a mid-range shooter without developing a 3 point threat or really good post moves, though that sometimes seems to come along when he gets it going early in a game and could continue to improve. Statistically his development curve is pretty flat, starting from a relatively high level but then not making any jump until now.
Depending on how optimistic you are you could say “he is what he is”, or “he still has the potential to become one of the top 5 PFs in the league” once a few old-timers retire.
at one point, I wanted to test the composites vs. winning percentage
correlation would convey the relative utility of the stat. Fortunately, that has already been done. WS and WARP certainly aren’t perfect because their creators had to choose relative value of the inputs – but both numbers do correlate well with winning.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions
One problem I have using PER and other composites in this sort of discussion
Is that we’re discussing how LMA actually fits with the other players we intend on having as our core, and composite stats are inherently (for better or worse) simply too general to really use as a metric to show worth.
Even if LMA’s improvements in WS has merit, I still say it isn’t showing the context of those improvements in that composite stat, and EVERY stat needs context.
The context of LMA’s numbers is that his percentages have stayed roughly the same no matter who was around him— when we’re at full health, at death’s door with injuries, whether he is next to dominant rebounders in Oden and Camby and Joel, or simply next to “no reboundin’” Juwan… LMA’s numbers stay the same.
He’s consistent and consistency deserves praise, but I think we can see from it that LMA is who he is most likely. The context of his rebounding, shotblocking, scoring numbers is that no matter who he was next to, he either stayed the same or got worse.
I started having my serious doubts about LMA fitting while Oden was playing so well to open the season. My previous hope that LMA’s ability to spread the floor and guard new-wave PFs, and a possible high-low game with Oden, would fit well.
LMA has shown that he isn’t a good passer— he’s a careful one and rarely turns it over—but he doesn’t make reads and pass accordingly. If he is doubled he doesn’t find the open man or find a cutter, he simply passes it back out and resets the offense. He hasn’t shown the ability to make nice feeds into someone like Oden from the high post, like Camby has shown in his career.
I don’t foresee LMA and Oden having genuine offensive chemistry, due to LMA lacking the skills and mindset necessary to fit next to Oden.
Mortimer
#52
As Magnum points out in the junk drawer, also we won more and more since LaMarcus came on the Blazers ;-)
Dum dum dum…
we shall see
If LMA’s greatest weapon is a deadly mid-range shot – that weapon is enhanced by mismatches at other positions. The more mismatches – the more space to hit his bread and butter shot.
Last season was a year of turmoil – and I’m not sure we can draw any firm conclusions – yet. You may fear he doesn’t fit – I don’t happen to because LMA and the rest of the squad haven’t figured it all out yet.
More to the point – if LMA doesn’t fit with Oden and Roy – I’d put a lot of that on the system rather than the player.
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions
You think we are currently not playing to his strenghts?
On which team would he fit better as a player who gets most of his points out of pick and pop and turnaround post up situations? If he had more range and versatility, maybe the Mavs where he could also get a few more points in the open court in transition, but aside from that I have a hard time coming up with one.
I don't think any team "needs" 65% outside shooting from its PF
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree our offensive and defensive schemes are lacking
But even best-case LMA on offense is way too weak on the interior on defense. And not a good enough passer to work WITH Roy and Oden, instead of just existing alongside them.
Even though the turmoil, and the previous year’s success, LMA has stayed the same. That’s part of my problem.
He is almost always pretty open on the pick and pop, and the enemy defense often simply lets LMA shoot the open jumper… because he only hits then at a 41% rate. He really isn’t a very good mid-range shooter. He can hit it, but it’s quite a bit worse than the other starting PF’s in the West who would be in the playoffs.
And again— I would say LMA’s best attribute is his offense. Don’t you think that’s what he’s best at?
And at the same time, I say his offense simply isn’t good enough— no matter the scheme, I think he’d shy away from contact inside on offense, prefer the easy jumper, and not be able to make reads and pass well.
It’d be a helluva lot easier if LMA was the right fit, and I’m all for easy… so I’ll be happy if he can make the changes necessary on defense and not need that many shots on offense to be happy.
Mortimer
#52
for better or worse
we are going to find out if he is an answer – but too many of the arguments used against him seem subjective and as much a knock on the team as anything.
Stylistically, he appears soft – but is he really? I didn’t have a problem with the way he played against Stoudemire (e.g., he wasn’t the reason the Blazers lost the series).
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I think he was extremely passive in the playoffs
But that is subjective, and largely why I am going by the numbers in this discussion.
The numbers show he does not go inside, does not challenge shots. Our eyes can confirm that.
I won’t call him “soft”, but I will say he isn’t aggressive. No one is scared of Lamarcus Aldridge in the playoffs.
Mortimer
#52
Yeah, the nicest way to criticize LMA's ...
on-court personality is by calling him passive and unassertive.
Yeah
I think using terms like “soft” or “wimp” are just making things worse— it’s an insult, it’s subjective, and diverts the whole discussion into the power of those words.
Plus I have no idea how soft or wimpy LMA is. I think it’s unfair to assume he is either.
But I think it’s easy to see that he rarely asserts himself on offense and goes for the jugular… the rare times that he does, we can go “whoa… why doesn’t he do that more often?”.
And it only makes the rest of the time, when he’s playing passively and shooting jumpers, all the more frustrating.
Oh, LMA!
LaMortimer
#52
likewise - 12 hours impolitely later...
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the problem with Greg Oden and Brandon ...
Roy working cohesively has more to do with system — even though there are seemingly some underlying alpha dog issues with Roy, who’s probably not the most humble guy — compared to LaMarcus Aldridge.
As Mortimer pointed out, Aldridge doesn’t alter his style of play in any circumstances. Whether playing on the frontline alongside a true center Joel Przybilla or a soft forward in Travis Outlaw, Aldridge doesn’t leave his comfort zone as an inefficient jump shooter and lax defender/rebounder.
For example, Charles Smith started having issues with the Clippers in his last season there when injuries and Larry Brown’s arrival to Los Angeles caused issues. By the time the 1992 NBA Playoffs came around, Smith played like crap against the Utah Jazz.
Oh, and as well all know, Smith’s career took a turn for the worse when he was dealt to the New York Knicks and his soft style of play didn’t fit well with Pat Riley’s hard-nosed, rough-and-tumble approach in the Big Apple.
At any rate, though, my main point is Aldridge would likely crumble into pieces if he played for a coach like JVG, who was an assistant under Riley during Smith’s time in New York.
You've hit the nail on the head.
Pau Gasol’s production at Memphis blows what LMA has done thus far in Portland out of the water when you view TS%, AST%, BLK%, et cetera.
Sure, the rebounding numbers are similar — although that’s not a strong suit for either guy — and, moreover, I’ll take Gasol’s higher TOV% any day over Aldridge’s pitiful AST%.
don't mistake
I never said LMA was better than Gasol (least not that you’re likely to find)
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree, you never said that
But you did seem to suggest that Gasol dramatically improved once he was surrounded by better players, and I took issue with that claim.
My argument is, he stayed the same, but giving that production as a 2nd option makes it look a lot better than giving the same production as a 1st option.
And I suspect LMA will stay the same too.
Morty
#52
Right, Pau Gasol was the same player at Memphis as he is ...
today in Los Angeles. The average, casual NBA fan just didn’t pay real close attention to him until Gasol made his way to the bright lights of Los Angeles.
this is a direct challenge to WARP and Win Shares
bears testing.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions
actually - I don't have historical WARP data
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions
one thing that might influence the WS discrepancy
is that it currently uses adjusted +/- as input to the composite. If Gasol gets an inordinate amount of credit for the high +/- he shares with Kobe, then that might influence his WS production.
I think the argument that LMA’s best years are ahead of him has merit – even if the potential that he has plateaued is also a viable position (just less probable)
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think as he adds experience he will keep improving throughout his prime
I also don’t think, since history suggests it won’t happen, that he will make SUBSTANTIAL improvements (such as shooting inside more, challenging shots, being more aggressive on defense and rebounding), but he should the small improvements that come with experience.
My worry, is that even accounting for those type of improvements, he simply doesn’t fit next to Option 1 and Option 2 in Roy and Oden. I argue we need those fill-in-the-gaps type of production similar to what Batum gives us on the perimeter.
Someone who we don’t have to worry whether they will challenge shots, only shoot on the inside (besides hitting the sporadic open jumper), play physical bruising defense… I’d rather have someone who that is what he does, so we don’t have to expect LMA to substantially change his game in that direction.
Morty
#52
let's not forget that LMA is a significantly above average player
that isn’t so easy to replace – and he has some remarkable skills that I want to see leveraged more – his ability to finish on the run being the most prominent.
Otherwise – a lot of what we consider to be “deficiencies” don’t necessary translate that way relative to his peers.
If you want a more realistic optimistic outlook: design his shots around a pick and roll instead of pick/pop. Design more back cuts, more shots moving to the basket without the ball. That is where he excels. That is not where the Blazers, as a whole, excel.
Law of Logical Argument
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by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions
LaMarcus Aldridge is way too passive to be an ...
adequate pick-and-roll finisher; therefore, even if the offense is changed, he’ll still likely pop instead and settle for mid-range jumpers. Also, with regards to off-ball movement, cutting inside, and occasionally finding himself second chance shot opportunities via putbacks from offensive boards off of teammate misses, I’d much rather have a guy who’s already proven to excel at that like, oh, Anderson Varejao.
Heck, it’s not like Vin Baker was any different under Paul Westphal’s up-tempo, motion-based offense compared to the down-tempo, stationary offense with heavy ball reversal later implemented by Nate McMillan. Yeah, regardless of the coaching change that led to a switch in offensive philosophy, Baker kept on being an offensively inefficient, defensively lazy drunkard. Shoot, Baker’s only good season in Seattle was pre-lockout during George Karl’s final campaign up here.
In the end, ultimately, you’re just way too bullish on Aldridge, as well as massively overdependent upon a single catch-all stat — instead of many individual per-minute/pace-adjusted percentage numbers — which is faulty analysis.
The difference between Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, however, is that ...
Gasol is a #2 option on a championship contender, while Aldridge is at best the #3 or #4 option on such a ballclub. An example of that is Rashard Lewis, who’s definitely stylistically different than Aldridge; however, this is more of a situational comparison.
As the #2 option in Seattle, Lewis was a part of mediocre teams that overachieved on one occasion. Yet, when Lewis went to Orlando, he joined up with a team that had a superstar franchise cornerstone as its #1 option (i.e., Dwight Howard), a solid #2 guy (i.e., Hedo Turkoglu/Vince Carter), and went from a #3 to a #4 dude once Jameer Nelson made strides during the 2008-2009 season in which the Magic made the NBA Finals.
Pau Gasol was a legit stud at Memphis, so let's not gloss over that irrefutable fact.
Over their respective first four seasons, Gasol was vastly superior at 24 in extremely important facets of the game — such as efficiency, shot blocking, passing, et cetera — compared to the LaMarcus Aldridge today; it’s no contest.
Furthermore, for three straight seasons from 2003-2004 through 2005-2006, Gasol took average Memphis teams — which were admittedly led by a couple of awesome, legendary head coaches in Hubie Brown first and later Mike Fratello — to consecutive playoff appearances as the #1 option.
That’s right, Gasol was the clear-cut #1 option.
LaMarcus Aldridge couldn’t’ve done that whatsoever. Seriously, there’s no way in hell that Aldridge would’ve performed to that level in such a situation.
you certainly do have a penchant for absolute statements
but I’m already on record saying that LMA will be better with better talent around him.
Other than that – who’s to say with any authority that LMA wouldn’t be a completely different player if he was the only one with any All Star claim on the squad?
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions
same as you might
rebound more; block more shots; take better shots
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Even if his shot blocking has plummeted since his rookie year?
I think better players around him would mask these flaws more, not make LMA suddenly challenge shots or not take jumpers.
Plus, how his whole game is energized by scoring… he just won’t have as many chances to be the focal point of the offense when we’re healthy, since Oden should get pretty much all of those touches on the block and running pick and pops is easy but will be as inefficient as ever.
Most players don’t substantially improve their rebounding. His has stayed so consistent, I don’t see it improving. That’s not the bad part though, since we got plenty of rebounders.
mm_
#52
The lone thing LaMarcus Aldridge could improve is his piddling ...
shot blocking numbers, although I agree with you that he’s unlikely to do it based on his passive, unassertive personality on the court.
That's part of the problem
I think it’s easy to believe he could improve on most of these things because he is gifted with great length, good skill, good athleticism, most everything he needs to easily improve his game.
So I long argued he could improve on those things.
The numbers, and eyes, tell me he’s gotten worse and history suggests he won’t suddenly change for the better in those important key areas— and I think we need him to be better at staying aggressive, shotblocking, challenging shots, more than we need him to become more efficient on offense.
M—
#52
Since I know we might be reaching the point where we just go in circles on the issue
I would just sum up my POV— I think LMA is who he is, for better or worse, and who he is doesn’t fit Oden and Roy, in my opinion. He hasn’t changed for 3 seasons.
I will believe that he will change for the better, when I see it. Up to now I see no reason to realistically expect it.
Mortimer
#52
"doesn’t fit Oden and Roy"
It seems that the Trailblazers heartily disagree with you. They think he does fit quite nicely and that’s why he got paid.
by Jeffe Portland on Jul 26, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Heehee, that's fine
Obviously I am stating my opinion. I think signing him is much more complicated than “they clearly believe he’s the best PF to have with Oden than Roy because we signed him”.
I think he was our starting PF who we’ve been developing who was due for a new contract and it ain’t like we’re letting him go for nothing. He’s not the end of the world, I just worry/think that he doesn’t fit our true stars.
Mortimer
#52
I do believe that LaMarcus Aldridge can improve his work ethic on ...
weakside help defense and rotating back over when it comes to shot blocking. Aldridge, however, is who he is as an average rebounder and poor passer, since those are skills almost always honed by the time someone enters the NBA.
The shooting efficiency is an altogether other matter, although I firmly believe that his passive nature will prevent him from ever adjusting his game as a guy who shoots roughly 2/3s of his shots as jumpers at an inefficient clip.
Even with a new coach, I still couldn’t envision Aldridge as somebody who’ll become more focused on scoring points inside. Aldridge lacks the handles and quick first step to to have Chris Bosh’s dribble-drive game from the elbow and baseline, doesn’t have motor on offense like Amar’e Stoudemire that’s needed to set hard screens up high and be an ultra-efficient pick-and-roll finisher, and is missing the footwork and array of moves necessary to be a tremendous mid to low block scorer like Pau Gasol.
I really can't endorse the idea that LMA is actually "inefficient"
I used that term above – but he is certainly efficient relative to his peers (above average, to be precise – considering a 15 PER is average, and he was at 18.3). This is in spite of too many outside shots.
As I just alluded to above – this isn’t all on Aldridge. The pick and pop is a Blazer disease – and not one they caught from LMA.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions
A sub-50% eFG%, a sub-42% eFG% on jump shots -- which ...
account for roughly 2/3rds of his field-goal attempts — and a lowly drawn foul rate of 11% (i.e., 8.5% less than Chris Bosh) that keeps down his TS% indicates a lack of overall efficiency for LaMarcus Aldridge. While that’s not woefully inefficient like Travis Outlaw, it’s too inefficient to justify LMA’s huge contract and role on the team nonetheless.
He doesnt make thhaaat much
like 10 1/2 mil next year… pretty comparable to his talent level… (Maybe slightly over paid) You compare him to Bosh statistically but he makes 14 1/2 next year… LA only makes about 70% of his salary. Look around most teams have a few guys in the 10-15 mil a year range if not one or two in the 20+ mil range.. and for better or worse… so far LA has been our number 2 guy…
I would be overjoyed to see him develope in the post and get a bit tougher… but its not like his contract is like a Joe Johnson blight of a contract…
"At 49, I can say something I never would have said when I was a player, that I'm a better person because of my failures and disgraces." -- Bill Walton
by MischiefPortland on Jul 26, 2010 3:36 AM PDT up reply actions
LaMarcus Aldridge could as likely fall apart like Charles Smith rather than make any real strides.
The most prudent expectation, however, is to assume that Aldridge will just be consistently above average, offensively inefficient, and defensively weak throughout his career, which basically makes him a taller and younger — albeit way more overpaid — version of David West.
could happen
although Smith did have a good run from 24-27….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions
At best, Nicolas Batum is a high-end role player; that's it.
A healthy Greg Oden, however, is capable of being a franchise cornerstone on a championship contender.
you have the ability to be half right, at least
Neither you nor anyone else can effectively cap Batum’s potential – anymore than you can limit Greg’s.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe it's just me, but I value a modern-day Artis Gilmore (i.e., Greg Oden) immeasurably more ...
than a modern-day Michael Cooper/young Tayshaun Prince (i.e., Nicolas Batum). I’m honestly a fan of Batum, too, although I just have scoff at whenever people try to compare him with Scottie Pippen.
I’m really sorry y’all, but Batum is not, will not, and never will be on the same level as Pippen—ever!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9vFHYVXtRk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1YchiFv-5M&
Such ridiculous overhyping of Batum reminds me of when a core of online Sonic fans tried to argue that Luke Ridnour was the second-coming of Steve Nash, which was similarly foolish beyond belief.
the problem is that it is all guessing
You can say Batum’s ceiling is a glorified sidekick – but he also has done some things at a younger age that a lot of famous players would have been proud to do.
Batum may or may not be a Hall of Famer. Pippen didn’t play at Batum’s age 21 level until age 25. Between ages 22-23, Pippen was a below-average NBA SF….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll finish off by saying that it's never pragmatic and often ill-advised to compare players ...
with guys who’s anomalous career arcs are huge outliers, with Scottie Pippen, Steve Nash, and Chauncey Billups being prime examples of that phenomenon.
I made a similar mistake a year ago thinking Rudy Fernandez could maybe expand on his rookie season and have a career similar to Manu Ginobili, although in hindsight I now know that taking into account defense and handles — which are Rudy’s biggest flaws — would’ve been appropriate. Plus, as with Pippen, Nash, and Billups, Ginobili’s career arc is an outlier.
I was about to say something similar
Some players have a “jump” in their game. They see a huge increase in production and/or efficiency that would never have been predicted before it happened.
Can I get an Armon?
still too early to make absolute proclamations about potential
and in Batum’s case, we don’t have to use outliers. Although there isn’t enough data to draw any solid conclusions, Batum compares favorably to most wings not named Jordan, James or Durant.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 25, 2010 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
At age 21, Luol Deng had a similar WS/48 as Nicolas Batum did last season. Yet, ...
Deng hasn’t come even close to duplicating that mark since then. Deng, however, is an outlier in that regard; thus, I don’t use him as a comparison — even though there are also major stylistic differences between him and Batum — which is why I argue people should drop the Scottie Pippen nonsense.
no question we need more data
also no question that there is something tangible to be excited about…one thing about the specific Pippen comparison that bugs me is that physically they aren’t real similar.
Pippen for a relatively skinny frame was exceptionally strong.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I still think alot of this is what it is. Rumor
As this article explains NO management seems to be headin in a direction that involves aggressively trading arounn chris paul and telling CP3 to stuff it and stick it out. Whither that happens or not remains to be seen. You can’t hinge too mush hope on rumor but sources close to NO mangement all seem to be saying the same thing. Trade existing players and acquire talent around Paul. However with free agency already passed and with NO managemnt essentailly doing little to nothing to aggressively seek big time free agents it would seem odd to me that they would reject an offer to give up Okafor’s contract and seek young talent the likes of which Portland can offer. To be honest If mondays meeting turns out to be a Paul trade scenario. I would be willing to put up anybody on our roster as tradeable with the exceptions of Roy, and a combination of Batum and Odon. No way we keep Batum, that would put us as the frontrunners in this trade scenario. As much as I hate to see Odon go. If thats the dealbreaker we should do it with the exception of involving another Center like Camby or Pryz thats too much at a valuable postion to lose.
Chris Paul isn't eligible for an extension until July of 2011. I'm sure Rich Cho is wholly aware of that, though.
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q52
By then, it’s more than likely that the NBA will be in lockout mode.
That aside, however, I’d put everyone on the table except for Greg Oden and Brandon Roy — although moving LMA would have to involve a three-team trade with a team like Cleveland, since New Orleans has no room for him — yet, that’s just my stance on this issue.
In any event, my ideal trade would be a three-team transaction that'd solidfy the Portland Trail Blazers as ...
a defensive-minded team that can actually compete with the likes of Miami, Orlando, and Los Angeles. As it is, though, the Portland Trail Blazers as currently constructed would get out-and-out manhandled by the Heat in a NBA Finals series; it’d be a sweep.
So, as a result, here’s my idea.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=25uxc2v
A three-man frontline rotation of Greg Oden, Anderson Varejao, and Marcus Camby is exactly what this ballclub needs to cover for the defensive ineptitude of Brandon Roy. Chris Paul, moreover, is the one speedy pick-and-roll oriented point guard who’d give teams such as Miami, Orlando, and Los Angeles fits, as well as help Oden thrive as a ultra-efficient low-post force in the mold of a modern-day Artis Gilmore.
Of course, my one fear in that scenario is Nate McMillan would have no idea whatsoever in that pea brain head of his how to correctly utilize Oden and Paul. McMillan, however, will likely get one more full season to screw up, so I’m already prepared mentally for another postseason debacle in the playoffs next year.
I’d personally want JVG as the head coach, but it’s doubtful Paul Allen and him would get along with each other; thus, I’d hope that Mike Fratello would get consideration if McMillan is canned, although my guess is many folks would frown at the thought of a more down-tempo offense. I, however, want to win more than anything, so I’d be all for an extremely slow-paced, power-oriented offense.
http://www.basketballsense.com/DVDs/hawk_offense.aspx
Remember, the problem with McMillian isn’t pace — for it’s like the one thing he’s got right on that end of the court — but rather the Charmin soft, jump shot oriented nature of the high-low zone offense. The 1-4 iso sets with Brandon Roy are fine, too, albeit in moderation, since a team with Oden and Paul would need to focus a ton on the pro-style two-man pick-and-roll game.
Now, with regards to the players, the big flaw with such a roster would be an undersized role player (i.e., Wes Matthews), an over-the-hill has-been (i.e., James Posey), and an overmatched rookie (i.e., Luke Babbitt) would be fighting for minutes at the 3. Specifically against the Heat, that’d be a huge problem.
We've got about 400 comments in this thread, and many of them involve trading Oden or Roy.
I’d like to see a poll taken now, after this discussion, of how many people here would include Roy or Oden in a trade for CP3 versus those that wouldn’t?
I think this is perhaps the most interesting/important/revealing (substitute your own word) issue ever debated here (certainly beats the Miller vs Blake debates).
But I guess that would be another CP3 trade FanPost and is no longer allowed?
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 25, 2010 11:24 PM PDT reply actions
Well, the likelihood of Brandon Roy being involved in such a trade for Chris Paul is nil for two reasons.
For starters, the New Orleans Hornets have no desire to take on Roy’s gargantuan maximum-level contract, especially considering his recent health issues and his lack of national marketability compared to Paul. On the other hand, though, the Portland Trail Blazers have currently made Pacific Northwest native Roy the face of its franchise, which thereby makes his local marketability level very large here.
Regarding Greg Oden, the Portland Trail Blazers aren’t a championship contender without him. To be frank, a three-man core of LaMarcus Aldrdige, Roy, and Chris Paul would get downright steamrolled and flattened by Miami, Orlando, and Los Angeles. Swap LMA out for a first-rate pivotman in Oden, however, and Portland would have a fighting chance against the big boys; hence, I’d like to expand this idea into a three-team deal in which Aldridge and perhaps another asset (e.g., Jerryd Bayless) — as well as Emeka Okafor from New Orleans’ end — are dealt to Cleveland or something.
You and I agree about Oden and Roy, but that wasn't my point. I'd like a roll call.
I’d like to see how the Blazersedge membership votes now that we’ve had a good discussion.
Call the Question
In a trade for CP3:
a) I’d include Roy
b) I’d include Oden
c) I’d include Roy and Oden
d) I’d include neither Roy or Oden
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 26, 2010 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I've never seen anyone mention C
I’d do D if at all possible, but I’d do B if it was the only way to get it done.
Can I get an Armon?
OK I created a FanPost Poll.
I don’t think it’s a CP3 trade proposal thread, so I don’t think it violates the FanPost rules.
Matty Walker: You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man. - Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 26, 2010 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps it truly is just a bundle of goodies for CP and EO
I was wondering about the phrase “assets” and trying to think of what Monty Williams would like. There are several Blazers he’s coached, and like, and they liked him.. NO also has 5, count-em, 5 trade exceptions, which means, I think, that they can do a 7:2 trade.
So what if we threw every cheap guy we had at em, really paring down our bench. The NBA Trade Machine says, it just might work….
I don’t know if the stashed Euro’s would count against th outgoing salaries like other players that could potentially match up, but what if Monty is looking for lots of familiar pieces to rebuild with?
FOR CP3 and Okafur, we could trade the core guys:
Dre, Pryz, and Rudy
and add to it Bayless, Dante, Pendy,
AND, I’m wondering if this might be the wait – they can’t trade Babbitt until 8/6.
But those combined salaries are a few thousand off… so a Claver, or something, might work too. And some money, and some picks, like our #1 next year, #2 in 12…
Trading those 7 guys would still leave us with quite an awesome squad:
Bigs: Oden, Okafur, Aldridge, and Camby!
Wings: Batum, Matthews, Roy, E. Williams
Small: CP3 and Armon Johnson (and maybe Patty, Paul Allen would like that)
An example of a player forcing a trade that is oddly forgotten in the whole CP3 discussion: Jason Kidd
It wasn’t like the Nets were terrible at that time (they went 34 and 48 in his last year there). He just didn’t want to play anymore with Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, and saw that the organization was heading nowhere close to making the finals again and would likely get sold and then re-built. So he wanted out, and to give his demands some pressure he e.g. famously refused to play one game with a migraine. Wojnarowski recently named him as a player Team USA brought on board to show LeBron James how to be a professional. Right… if that was true, the apprentice has learned well from the master, at least how to get what he wants.
The Mavs wanted a proven veteran point guard, hoping that would push them over the top. Everybody knew Jason Kidd was disgruntled. And the number of teams he was interested in playing was short, with reportedly only the Cavs, Lakers, and Mavs on it – with LeBron and Kobe lobbying for him but their teams not having the right assets or not willing to give them up. Kidd was getting up there in age, arguably quite a bit out of his prime. Also you were only sure to get him for a year and a half, after which he would be able to bolt. Sounds like someone we know?
It still cost the Mavs a lot to get him. Most importantly finalist point guard Devin Harris (about 10 years younger than Kidd), backup big man DeSagana Diop who was regarded higher at that time than he is now after being ineffective on the Nets and Bobcats, two first round picks, two more rotation players, and a re-signed semi-retired Keith Van Horn with a newly created expiring contract after Stackhouse and Devean George had killed two earlier iterations of the deal.
At that time, a number of Mavs fans hated the deal, since Harris was a beloved player and Kidd looked like he was really aging. Now it can be debated how good of a deal it was since the Mavs have still failed twice to advance far in the playoffs, but there is no doubt who was the better team since then, and arguably (admittedly) the team played better with Kidd than it did with Harris and he has not fallen off a cliff yet (and passed a few more historical milestones that got him into top 3 of all time territory in a few categories). And he did re-sign where he was.
So with that example in mind, do you think Paul might be able to force his way off the Hornets? If so, how much do you think the Hornets will want to charge for a proven point guard in his prime to accommodate that wish? In this league, you ultimately have to take some risks to get a proven star player not knowing what the future will bring. Go big – or go home.
Thanks for the reminder.
Unfortunately, I think Paul will be able to force his way off the Hornets. In some regards, I feel bad for him because he’s stuck on a team that isn’t trying to improve, but I don’t like the recent trend of big-name players trying to call all the shots and getting whatever they want. In his case, I’m sure he’ll eventually get his way.
I also feel torn about Paul’s value. A top 5 player in the league is worth top dollar, but the fact that his contract is up in only two years (one of those possibly being a lockout) makes it a huge gamble for most teams. I don’t care what the rest of the league does, but for the Blazers, I’m hesitant to accept anything that includes our big 4 of Roy, Aldridge, Oden, and Batum.
Some team will probably overpay for Paul. If it’s us, I just hope we can convince him to stick around for a while.
"Nicolas! You're the strongest boy in the world!"
If Paul went to Orlando...
Does Portland go after Jameer Nelson?
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
doesn't sound like Paul is moving
At least not right away. If nothing else, Portland’s decision criteria will be clarified.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:18 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
doesn't sound like Paul is moving
At least not right away. If nothing else, Portland’s decision criteria will be clarified.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 26, 2010 1:19 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
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