Hollinger: Today's Spending Made Kevin Pritchard Look Like A Genius
John Hollinger of ESPN.com assesses the first day of free agency and comes to the conclusion that crazy spending on free agents like Amir Johnson, Darko Milicic and Drew Gooden makes former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard look like a genius for signing LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby to contract extensions before the summer...
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The lesson from the first 24 hours of free agency is that it's not just the superstars who are defining this market -- with too much cash chasing too little talent, teams are throwing themselves at whatever Hakim Warrick or Steve Blake they can get their mitts on, consequences be damned.
Wise GMs like the five above looked ahead, saw the landscape and did their work early, even if they endured some criticism for it at the time. (As did a sixth, Utah's Kevin O'Connor, who had the foresight to extend Mehmet Okur but couldn't look far enough into his crystal ball to see a devastating Achilles injury).
Kerr and Pritchard aren't even employed by their teams anymore, even though those moves at a minimum saved their teams 10's of millions in additional salary. Aldridge and Rondo would get max offers in this market, guaranteed. Ginobili and Nash would have offers that came close. Camby and even Sefolosha likely would have been richly rewarded as well.
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As I wrote back in April, protecting Camby from competitors on the open market was a major impetus behind the urgency and timing of that deal.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
over 1 year ago
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I for-see several years of lessons learned like this due to K.P.
:(
by blazerbeliever97504 on Jul 1, 2010 11:13 PM PDT reply actions
Like a true genius
or artisan, KP wasn’t even fully appreciated in his own time (with the team).
"I was surprised, I was listening to the coach on the bench and behind me, she touches me and says, ‘Rudy, I love you. Nice to meet you. Good game.’ - Rudy
by The Mallorcan Rocket on Jul 1, 2010 11:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I think everyone that didn't want him fired appreciated all that he did. I cared enough to buy a 10 dollar
keep KP shirt lol. Paul Allen just couldn’t ignore his ego.
by BRoyInThe4th on Jul 1, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe we should cut off his ear
to make him REALLY appreciable.
I wish KP and PA didn't act like schoolchildren.
That is all.
A lot of bad contracts out there
Seems like emotions are running a bit high by teams out there willing to over spend – guessing some of these teams will be looking at dumping some of these salaries in a few years….just can’t save them from themselves. ..and LMA would likely have gotten a max deal from somewhere – at least from one of the four teams with huge cap space that will lose out on one of the top 5-6 free agents.
I agree with the slant here.
Kudos to KP and his owner Paul Allen and his quality staff of Tom Penn, Born, Buchanan and President Miller & Coach Nate.
We can’t know who came up with what, but this outcome that KP made his final decision on is really looking great.
Thanks again KP, we will remember you fondly.
In Bayless I trust.
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remember, KP was all for giving Roy his 5th year guaranteed
so this could be another case of Hollinger throwing bouquets to a quant-buddy who was really just “part of a team” that held the line on these extensions (pencil-necked Vulcans to the rescue? Perish the thought!)
I remember hearing that Paul Allen insisted that Camby would not be a rental, back in Feb before Marcus was acquired. Without Paul signing the checks (and the Rose Garden crowd serenading MC) then we could all be reading Camby’s name on the internet today connected to these megabucks
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Right, and that is all part of the team they had.
Whatever internal fights they had while KP was in charge came out with the result we have now. The process they created under KP of fighting it out, and the voices that were allowed to express opinion, these things together created the good situation you see here.
My premise: The groupwork they did under KP may have been full of conflict, but it got good results.
In Bayless I trust.
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The groupwork they did under KP may have been full of conflict, but it got good results.
Yes, the results that we know about were mostly positive. The deals that were never agreed upon we’ll probably never know, but there might be some cringe-inducing boo-boos hiding in the training room closet (like Devin Harris for Outlaw-Jack-Frye in ‘07?) Not all of those near-misses were KP’s fault, just like not all the “good” results were all about KP.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
these guys were smart but
they sucked a lot of unpredictablility, insanity, and fun out of free agency.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
I don't know
if this is as much about the genius of KP as the idiocy of giving Amir Johnson 34 million dollars.
The point is some idiot would've been willing to give Camby tons of money.
So if you like having LMA, Roy, and Camby on our team, then it is genius.
In Bayless I trust.
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Question: Oden's contract?
I think that either Greg’s contract can be extended this summer or he will become an restricted free agent at the end of next season.
So my question is: Should the Blazers negotiate to extend his contract this summer, or let him become a restricted free agent and look to match any offers next year?
My answer would be:
Given this summer’s general craziness and over payment of free agents, the Blazers should wait until next year and match any offers.
It looks like this summer many teams will use up their cap space. Next summer, most teams will have a bloated payroll and be facing a new CBA. So the odds are better for the Blazers to wait until next summer and match any offers.
What do you guys think?
Problem is the Knicks
will have money next summer, and if they strike out on Melo and can’t do much this year, they will absolutely look to overpay for either Oden or Horford. If Oden has a good year next year, it will cost Portland a lot of money
Maybe the Blazers should wait a couple months and evaluate the sitation in August/September to see what the landscape looks like
Hopefully the Knicks will use up their cap space this summer. After promising their fans some results for all their suffering, the Knicks should feel pressure to do something now.
This is good point.....October 30-something is typically the deadline
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on Jul 2, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Not to be too obvious
But it depends on what they can sign him for. If they can get for an amount that won’t hurt too bad if he never plays well again, then do it by all means. Otherwise, let him play out the year and then pay him what he’s worth. If he breaks out huge, they won’t feel too bad about maxing him out.
Probably the best thing for everyone is to give him an extension for just one additional year, at a middling price similar to what he’s being payed now. By two years from now his value should be pretty clear. And he gets a guaranteed extra 5 million or so if he craps out. And the team gets plenty of time to evaluate him.
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
the Blazers have until the end of October
and they should wait until the 11th hour to decide re: Greg
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The Marcus Camby two-year contract extension was a shrewd move, but the idiocy of GMs across the ...
NBA recently doesn’t negate the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge is now vastly overpaid with his exorbitant contract.
I agree.
But most good teams have a mix of over and under paid players. Get the deals where you can, but pay for talent when you have to.
In Bayless I trust.
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How can you say this?
Josh Smith has three years left on a deal averaging $12 million a year. Nene two years, $11 million per. Kaman, three years, $12 million per annum. Al Jefferson three years, $14 million. Okafor has four years and $52 million total left on his contract. Rashard Lewis is making an absurd amount in the next three years.
That’s the tier that LaMarcus is at — the “I’ll make an All-Star game here and there but you can’t count on me to be a franchise cornerstone” level. He’s getting paid market value. I challenge you to look around the league at bigs of a similar age and putting up similar numbers and try to find one making less than $10 million a year. He’s not overpaid if that’s the going market rate.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Jul 2, 2010 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
his agent would've turned it down, and he would've received a ridiculous offer this week
So instead of having cost-certainlty today, the Blazers would’ve been contemplating whether to match it, or let him walk
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
of course the other thing that would have done
is it would have let the BLazers add in LMA to their propsed deal to the Hornets for CP3 before the draft. As LMA’s contract would have basically been an expiring deal at that point. Maybe that would have been enough to tipe the scales on the deal, maybe not.
Just interesting.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
But then you would have had to take back David West too
because NO woudn’t have wanted LMA and West…they are basically the same guy..stylistically
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on Jul 2, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
And really
would that be a bad thing? West is a pretty decent player, and he would fit well with Oden, Roy, and Paul. His contract would have been less than the one LMA got, giving the Blazers more wiggle room as well.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
if the Hornets acquire LMA, they won't have much trouble moving West
8.2 mil this year, down to 7.5 mil next year, player option for West
So David could easily be an expiring contract, depending on how he and his agent fear the upcoming CBA
NO would get a younger player, possibly a future all-star big man (which is what they’re reportedly looking for) for CP3
After hearing what Ford said about LMA being “out there” in trade talks, it makes me wonder if the Blazers are thinking that they have a logjam at PF, not center (Camby is a 4, Przy is Oden’s exclusive backup at 5)
The Bedge consensus is that Marcus was signed to be a backup center because that’s what he had to play last March-April, but that doesn’t mean it’s his best position, or the one that he and the coaching staff are envisioning that he will play the most, this coming season. Much depends on Joel’s rehab, certainly Camby was “insurance” at the 5 in case Przy couldn’t make it back in time for fall camp. But isn’t it interesting that this week we’re hearing that Joel is on schedule for a return to the floor in time for fall camp, and also we’ve learned that LMA’s name is “out there” in trade discussions?
Ver-ry coincidental. It’s been assumed that LMA was the “#2 option” and a part of the team’s future core along with Roy and Greg—but what if it’s not necessarily so, now that KP is out of the picture? Food for thought
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree, larue.
We’d be in a sticky situation right now for sure. I think Hollinger is right that extending LaMarcus last summer saved tremendous amounts of SPAM, even I disagree with his assertion that somebody would give LMA a max deal right now. It would have been great to get LaMarcus for a David West kind of deal, but West is literally the only power forward in LMA’s tier making less than $10 million a year and not on his rookie contract. LMA might be a little overpaid, but it’s not vastly or exorbitantly so.
And how would LaMarcus have felt if we’d offered Roy a max extension and then lowballed him with a decreasing-in-annual-salary West-style contract? That kind of cold-blooded play can permanently sour the relationship between team and player. I’m not even a big LaMarcus fan but it’s hard to argue that the extension wasn’t reasonably negotiated last summer.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Jul 2, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
how would LaMarcus have felt if we’d offered Roy a max extension and then lowballed him with a decreasing-in-annual-salary West-style contract?
We discussed this 12 months ago, and the feeling was that LMA would hold a grudge if he wasn’t extended last summer, and the team could risk losing him this summer. As things have worked out this week, I think those fears were justified
This past season would’ve been a disaster without LMA playing every game after Greg and Joel went down. But the Blazers also learned a lot about Aldridge this year. He had the opportunity to be the #1 scorer in the low post and quite frankly, he plateaued.
Now, it could be said that he was the focus on the other team’s interior defense, and that he’ll do better with Greg in the lineup (something I tend to agree with) but when the numbers are added up, perhaps the Blazers are feeling that he’s not giving them enough bang for the buck? We certainly are hearing that from a growing number of fans, so what if Nate, Larry and Paul are having second thoughts re: the future of #12?
KP was a strong advocate, he believed that LMA could be a force at both ends of the floor, but at some point all of that potential needs to start being realized, right? Especially now that he’s going to be paid like a 20/10 big man. Oden and then Batum are going to also need to be paid well in the coming years, that could result in a salary contraction. Two salaries knocking one off the payroll
The roster evaluation continues, Outlaw, Blake and Webster left the “island” in the last 4 months, is the restructuring process complete, for awhile? Not if what we’re hearing re: trade discussions has legs
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
History
David West signed that contract, (5 years $45.5 million) in the summer of 06, 3 years into his career. in 05-06 he had a career year at the time, averaging 17.1pts 7.4rebs, 1.2asts, and .9blks per game. Before that year, he barely played, (101 games played over 2 years. 13-18 mins per game when he did play) and when he did play, there was nothing that stood out. 05-06 ofcourse is when CP3 was drafted, he made David West into what he is today.
In contrast LMA had 3 years of service, 2 of those years starting every game he played, and avg 18pts, 7.5rebs, 1.2blocks and 1.8asts per game. Even in his rookie year, he played 63 games and showed flashes of the player he would become. LMA had prove production, while West had 1 good year, after a superstar was drafted, the Hornets were taking a much larger risk on him than the Blazers were on LMA. With that risk comes a smaller contract, LMA proven production level, plus is potential to improve on that production is what made him deserve the contract he recieved.
Lets stop comparing him to the one player in the NBA who is on a cheap contract compared to his production.
Al Jefferson – 5 years 65 million
Andrew Bogut – 5 years 60 million
C. Kaman – 5 years 52 million
A. Diedrins – 6 years 54 million
Nene – 6 years 60 million
A. Jamison – 4 years 50 million
L. Deng – 6 years 71 million
T. Chandler – 6 years 63 million
J. Smith – 5 years 58 million
R Lewis – 6 years 112.7 million
E. Brand – 5 years 80 million
A. Iguodala – 6 years 80 million
S. Dalembert – 6 years 65 million
Turkoglu – 5 years 52 million
Add in some recently agreed to contracts
J. Johnson – 6 years 120 million
Darko – 5 years 25 million
R. Gay – 5 years 82 million
After looking those up, LMA’s deal doesn’t see to out of line to me. He maybe a few million overpaid for his current production, but nothing that will prevent the Blazers from making moves in the future. Z-bo’s deal was much worse when looking back, compared to that one LMA is a steal, even if he doesn’t put up the extra 2 pts and 3 rebs per game.
LMA – 5 years 65 million
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Jul 2, 2010 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
are the incentives...
in LMA’s contract likely to take him to 65 million or is it more realistic to say he signed a 60m deal which could go to 65 if he makes things like all star games.
i remember reading it had incentives to reach the top end but was 65 the top end or the guaranteed part?
I took the info for all of these salaries
off of storyteller’s site, So I’ll have to refer to him on your question, as I simply don’t know.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Nice post.
Rec.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Jul 2, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
And not by a little bit.
In Bayless I trust.
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$80 million for Rudy Gay?????
Insane
Speaking of cruel, Portland fired GM Kevin Pritchard an hour before the draft. Hey, he's only a top-seven GM -- there are plenty of those. Does anyone else think Al Davis died a year ago and took over Paul Allen's body? - Bill Simmons
Can't get over the fact that Pritchard -- fired earlier in the day -- is still running Portland's draft. If I were him, I'd be in Portland's war room loudly calling other GMs and saying things like, "I have an offer for you: I'll trade you our No. 23 pick, and in return, YOU HELP ME PULL THE F****** KNIFE OUT OF MY BACK!!!!! Do we have a deal????" - Bill Simmons
by blazeraddict on Jul 2, 2010 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey!
He said he was going to be all that he could be! That is easily worth 80mil!!!
In Bayless I trust.
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Well, now I know what I'm telling my boss tomorrow when I ask for that raise :)
Seriously, Rudy Gay is a nice player, but he’s Richard Jefferson in terms of his impact on a winner at best. Memphis just paid a 2nd/3rd man like a 1st option
Speaking of cruel, Portland fired GM Kevin Pritchard an hour before the draft. Hey, he's only a top-seven GM -- there are plenty of those. Does anyone else think Al Davis died a year ago and took over Paul Allen's body? - Bill Simmons
Can't get over the fact that Pritchard -- fired earlier in the day -- is still running Portland's draft. If I were him, I'd be in Portland's war room loudly calling other GMs and saying things like, "I have an offer for you: I'll trade you our No. 23 pick, and in return, YOU HELP ME PULL THE F****** KNIFE OUT OF MY BACK!!!!! Do we have a deal????" - Bill Simmons
by blazeraddict on Jul 2, 2010 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions
out of this world money
While waiting for his cell phone to ring…Travis is saying “show me the money…come to papa!”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 2, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
A timely insightful editorial on the current affairs of the NBA off the court.
Great writing by Hollinger.
Grand Illusions
The grand illusion of free agency is that teams who the players are leaving always have the upper hand. If the player is restricted, they can match, and if not, they can still pay more than another team. Further, teams who the player is leaving also have the option of a sign and trade. This, in combination with the fact that most players will take the best payday, regardless of whether or not the team they’re playing for will ever see the championship game, always means that the grand illusion of massive player movement rarely happens. Only when teams decide to cut someone loose and not compete (Miller and Turkoglu), or when some such as James sees the extra money Cleveland can pay as as rounding error, given endorsements, do you see players generally moving. Teams like New York, Miami and Chicago have all of the excitement, but will they be able to translate that excitement into meaningful improvements? They need two good players, after all, not just one. Frankly, I’m glad we’re on the sidelines for awhile, as we let it all shake out. It is, after all, the season of insanity. I have the feeling that some of these teams are going to wake up with the proverbial financial hangover-and long term contracts with players who are not going to make their day.
This summer is creating the contracts
that Isaiah Thomas (or his equivalent) will stockpile down the road (2-3 years from now). There will be lots of future bad contracts made this summer. Teams will be hamstrung until they unload to another team with capspace. Future oportunities are being made. Blazer fans were held to either extreme in this continuum: in jailblazer era most players were overpaid, while in the last 3 years most our guys are underpaid. Either situation makes trades difficult to occur due to talent imbalance.
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