The "One More Year" theory
by mjm6783 on Jun 3, 2010 11:15 AM PDT
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PrintI don't know if it's because we got bumped so early from the playoffs, or if it's just our nature as Blazer fans, but it seems to me that a lot of people are getting ahead of themselves when it comes to calling for changes in the staff and roster. There are a few things I think these people are overlooking. After the jump.
Number 1: Nate McMillian. Here's what we know. Nate is one of the top coaches in the league when it comes to developing young players. His calm methodical style is criticized heavily by fans who think we should "Letthe young guys run." which is a terrible idea, since young, inexpierienced players running a loosey-goosey offense is a recipe for inconsistent scoring and a lot of turnovers.
At the same time. Nate has never proven he can take a team to the next level in the NBA. Period. He developed some good young teams in Seattle, but they lacked some final pieces, and collapsed in the post season. I'm not saying that I know he's incapable of coaching a championship team, but you have to admit no evidence to the contrary either.
That being said, give Nate "One More Year". We still have a lot of talented youth who need strong developmental support. Jay-Bay, Dante, Lil' Bit, even Webster, these guys will all get regular bench rotation this year, and they need to start showing improved consistentcy and composure. Things that Nate preaches constantly.
Number 2: Rudy, Webster, LMA, Jay Bay. I've heard a lot calls for trading these players. And not without good reason. Although I will admit I'm not opposed to moving any player other than Roy or Oden right now, so long as we get better value in return, I have to say that making a rash decision could potentially be a huge mistake.
For starters, our offense is going to look totally different next year. Whereas we played a majority of last season without a legitimate center, now we will have 3 awesome centers. That completely changes the structure of the offense, spacing in the half courtsets, defensive assignments, pretty much every facet of the game. LaMarcus may seem a little lackluster as a low post scoring threat, but when we have a beast (or 3) down low, LMA can run the pick and pop to spread the defense with a 20 foot jumper, and get out and run in transition when the other bigs rebound. Obviously, for spot up shooters, defense collapsing towards the middle makes your job a hell of a lot easier. 'Nuff said.
Number 3: Championship talk. People are calling for a lot of these changes under the guise of "so-and-so isn't championship caliber" or "We need an upgrade at this position to be a championship contender." I am the first person to say that winning a title needs to be the ultimate goal, no matter what is currently happening with the team. But we have been eliminated in the 1st round two years in a row, after not even making the playoffs for many years. Let's take a breath. Let's take it one step at a time. Let's give it "One More Year", before we start talking about making the Championship level trades, or major shifts in coaching staff.
I know it may seem like I'm spoiling a lot of the fun people are trying to have. And since this is one of the only points in the year when there isn't much concrete Blazer talk, it's natural to speculate on far fetched schemes to improve through trades or signings. But I would just like to point out that in terms of what pieces we have and what the situation is with the team, our best bet is to hold our cards and see what develops. Once we know more about which players are going to work moving forward we can make more drastic decisions. But that probably won't be until after the playoffs, NEXT YEAR.
Oh, and as always, GO BLAZERS. Now for the obligatory poll.
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You left one out of your poll.
People who want K.P. as the G.M. on their team.
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
I am so confused.
Are you saying to give everyone “one more year”? or are you saying we should give him “one more year” for like 10 years, but in a sarcastic format?? By the way, when you say Nate preaches all the right things, that doesn’t mean he has an effective system to teach the players what he preaches, which is why think he needs to be let go, i don’t think he as is effective as he is made out to be, i just think that the players are just naturally have a above average basketball IQ.
My point was that..
…McMillian may not be able to be our coach when we win a championship, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to fire him now. We still need to develop, and quite frankly such an extreme change may do more harm than good.
Give it one year. Then start talking about moves we need to make in order to win a ring, improve the team, take the next step, etc.
Don't over think it.
Give Roy the ball.
that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to fire him now. We still need to develop, and quite frankly such an extreme change may do more harm than good.
This is probably true, the team went through a lot of adversity last year and handled it well. The players don’t need to be thrown another curve by management and find out they’ll have a new head coach next fall.
OTOH, it sounds like there will be at least one change to the assistant coaching staff, and some of the concerns that Bedgers have with Nate “could” be addressed with a new assistant coach. I know that AK1984 feels that McMillian will never change his system, but if he gets a strong enough signal from the owner and the front office that systemic “changes” need to be made, then he should be smart enough to follow orders.
One of these signals would be for someone other than Nate to hire Monty’s replacement, and for that choice to be a coach who has innovative ideas re: defense (or offense) that don’t perfectly dovetail with Nate’s philosophy. This is less radical than replacing the head coach, but it could provide the desired result of shaking up the status quo (more movement/uptempo, Roy and LMA playing tougher defense, etc)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I feel we've been set back
Obviosly, I feel it starts with staying Healthy. The injuries to Oden and Martell Webster put two seasons ago set our team back. Had Oden and Roy been healthy for the playoffs, I believe we would have at least made it to the Conference Finals this year.
I want to qualify this by saying that I like and appreciate Coach Nate’s mentality, but I just don’t think Nate’s offensive philosophy is going to get it done for this team. If all of our players could stay healthy, and nothing else changed at all in regards to play calling and utilizing the strengths of our players, our team should be able to get 54+ wins every year for the next 6 years or so. However, our lack of movement on offense is easy to defend, and it is especially easy come playoff time when teams have time to prepare and gameplan for you . During our playoff series with Phoenix, Phoenix’s defense ultimately dictated the entire game, and our offensive strategy did next to nothing to counter it. We did not force them to react in a way that put pressure on them. Instead, they dared us to settle for perimeter shots during the playoffs, and they were right to do so. They were simply playing the percentages; pack the key to prevent drives to the hoop, and keep Grant Hill near the freethrow line extended to disrupt our patented “pick and pop.”
Wouldn’t it be nice if we played offense in such a way, that it dictated the game to the other team?
I’d like for Nate to be our coach, but it is dependent on him improving our offensive sets and flow. If he can not or will not do that, we might as well let him loose and find the coach who can and will get that done.
Can I buy you a fish sandwich?
If we did not have a potentially game changing Center on our bench
The first thing blazer fans would be calling for would be a new Center to give us a paint presence. The OP’s point is that Oden is going to entirely change the face of our offense next year. If Oden is healthy and other teams still have an easy time defending the paint against Nate’s coaching than perhaps all the complainers have a point. But you cannot seriously expect us to hold the paint with no legitimate big men. Aldridge is a 4, he is not a stretch 5 and should not be played there. Except in a rare situation where both teams have decided it is in their interest to play small ball…
Aldridge is a 4, he is not a stretch 5 and should not be played there.
I agree, but after Greg/Joel went down the choices were LMA or Juwan
The Camby trade made a big difference in Aldridge’s performance, on both ends. I hope I never have to see LMA play the 5, again. Even if the other team tries to play a small lineup, leave your big guy(s) in there and pound the ball inside on offense and kill them on the boards
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Wait a second here...
Phoenix kicked our backsides in the paint bigtime in the playoffs this year. It was all about getting to the basket, and their offensive rebounding. Where is their Greg Oden type?
Even when we had Oden healthy, there was a serious lack of effort in getting the ball to him. Perhaps that is more on the players than Nate. Then again, it is the job of the coach to hold his players accountable if the plays were designed to get the ball to Oden, and they are not making an effort to get the ball to him.
Having a good post presence is a nice bonus, but there are plenty of ways to score in the paint. There are many examples of teams with a good motion offense, who are very successful without a Greg Oden type player on offense. There are many teams that score lots of points in the paint, because they set screens and move around on offense, or have point guards breaking down the defense for lay-ups or easy assists for dunks. Utah, Phoenix, and Boston are a few that come to mind.
Can I buy you a fish sandwich?
Where is their Greg Oden type?
Stoudemire
If Nate wanted to see Greg more touches at the beginning of the season, he should’ve started fall camp with Miller as his #1 PG and left him there (RAMBO…but he listened to Roy and LMA and kept Blake as the starting PG…lame-o)
Andre was just beginning to get in synch with Oden when Greg’s kneecap broke. Miller and Camby will improve the Blazer’s post-entry passing, this fall. GO has already shown that he can be an Olajuwon-like presense, passing the ball out of the post to wide-open teammates. He needs to learn to keep the ball up high and not bring it down where it can be stripped, as he gathers himself to dunk
The Blazers ability to set hard screens took a huge hit when Joel went down, and Portland already has one of the best penetrating backcourts in the NBA in Roy and Miller. Brandon just needs to learn to look for his big men a little more than his own shot (or, not always pass the ball to the spot-up shooters in the corners) when he crosses over and drives into the paint
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
you for got something in your poll
“an all of the above”
The problem with ideas like this
is that it could’ve been written last year at this time
and the year before that
and the year before that
Paul Allen was telling insiders that the team was “a year behind schedule” towards the goal of winning a championship, last summer
That should be of greater concern to KP and Nate than what some fans on a blog think is the team’s proper timeline
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The truth simply is...
…that Odens injuries have slowed his development. Brandons nagging injuries have hampered his career. Last season should of been the year of revealation as far as Oden and where this team is heading…but massive injury to many key players all season long kept that from happening.
So the truth becomes that this team is put in a “One More Year” scenario. As much as fans want instant answers and instant guaranteed success, I don’t think we have any choice but to see how Brandon, LMA, Oden, Miller, Batum…and the rest of The Blazers respond next season.
So yes, One More Year. If we see more injury? Or a ceiling to certain players play? Then next off-season I think tougher decisions will and should be made…but for now…one more season is basicly what I believe.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
My whole thing is this
I can’t believe we could be considering replacing KP while Nate’s job is completely safe.
From where I sit, the most important position in a franchise is the GM’s position because it comes down to being able to find and acquire talent. And, without talent, coaching, ownership, front office personnel and the rest are entirely secondary. From where I sit, KP, in the last 4 years, has placed himself in the upper tier in the NBA in terms of drafting talent. And it all begins with the draft. Without it, teams cannot reload as players age or get injured, and we have little or nothing of value to trade should we want to go down that road.
F urther, replacing GM’s is much more difficult and risky than any other entity on the team. It only takes a couple of poor drafts, after all, to stop or reverse the ongoing development of a team. The league, in turn, is full of wealthy owners whose teams never move into the top tier, let alone win a championship, because they cannot find that missing piece – which is the GM.
Portland, it appears, is at a crossroads on the management side. Penn and Monty are now gone. KP appears to be looking at other options as well. We shouldn’t forget that the other side of this coin is that there are any number of wealthy owners in this league who, looking at KP’s 4 year track record, may very well covet him and be perfectly willing to pay him, as well as give him the control he may want, to get him to leave the Blazers.
Two years ago Paul Allen stated that KP had the “golden gut”, meaning that he had a very good eye for talent. And as the draft has shown, he has demonstrated that ability – to include finding players like Batum in the lower end of the draft.
If you want to consider how risky it is to let him leave, look only to Miami and the fact that they’ve – for all practical purposes – written off Beaseley – the number 2 pick a few years ago. That pick was the difference between mediocrity and success. And, we can go down the list of teams who, year in and year out – seem to make the same types of mistakes.
The other piece of the GM’s job is trades – of course. But again, trades are one of the most over-hyped components of building winners. All one has to do is track the results, to see that in all but a handfull of cases, the teams involved do not seem to appreciably improve the team by making those trades. Due, in no small part, to the fact that if you want talent – then you have to have talent to trade. And without an effective draft – year in and year out – you won’t have it. So, you generally end up trading secondary pieces for someone else’s secondary piece, or dumping contracts under the guise of improving the team.
As much as we talk about next season – and how well the Blazers will perform – we may well find that the more important decision for the long term will be what happens to KP – and if he leaves – who we get and whether or not that person can match his talent drafting skills.
in all but a handfull of cases, the teams involved do not seem to appreciably improve the team by making those trades
The two teams currently in the finals are most notable exceptions. The art of the deal to bring the missing piece to a roster on the cusp of greatness cannot be overstated.
Buck Williams for Sam Bowie? Priceless
But I agree with your assessment of KP’s track record. He showed he can make the necessary mid-season trade last February. Will he make that difference-making deal that leads to a championship? That’s up to Paul, not you and me
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
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