Defining Success This Off-Season
by Dave on Jun 3, 2010 1:11 AM PDT
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PrintHere's a question I've been pondering for a while. Ever since 2006 we've had a pretty clear blueprint for Blazer off-season success. In the initial years success meant rebuilding the team, acquiring talent through the draft. That culminated with the Oden lottery win and saw one last gasp with the Jerryd Bayless selection. Though the draft remains a cornerstone of growth Portland's position is liable to sink lower and lower, limiting the chances to improve via that avenue. Last year the venue changed as free agency and cap space took center stage. The basic thrust remained the same, however: acquire talent. This year with the Blazers more than capped out and pushing the luxury tax that approach is also narrowing. The team could still make moves but they aren't of the same urgency or clarity as the summer of 2009 brought. More to the point, you can't define Portland's success by those moves or lack thereof because not making any major moves or acquisitions is a viable option.
This begs the question, how do we define success in the summer of 2010, noting that simply adding talent isn't the primary answer anymore?
I'm throwing that question open today. After some thought, I'm ready to give at least a partial answer for myself. I'd like to say that health is the major gauge, but that is beyond the team's control. While true, it's an unsatisfactory response. So I'm going beyond that and claiming that this summer success comes in two flavors, both centering around the concept of "focus".
First, the roster needs focusing. The Blazers have dealt with years of uncertainty: uncertain positions, uncertain progress among players, uncertain fit, uncertain potential. Plenty of questions remain. Not all will be answered between now and training camp. But it's safe to say that bald acquisition not only isn't possible, it isn't enough anymore. We don't need more pieces, we need the pieces to mesh better. We can't continue watching some players excel at the expense of others. This happens to a certain extent on all teams but usually the players left behind are either young guys incapable of playing or veterans who won't suffer with the bench time, who will instead bide their time until the opening comes. That isn't happening in Portland. There aren't enough minutes at point guard, off-guard, small forward, or center to accommodate the players and personalities currently on the roster. Part of that may be moving guys who either don't fit or are unreliable for someone who does fit reliably. Part of that may be defining roles and expectations. Part of it may be simply admitting that some of these issues are insoluble. Whatever it is, this roster needs to be more manageable by fall. This probably won't take major moves but a tweak or two (and possibly some career counseling) is in order. The goal is to come into training camp with a reasonable number of questions and a reasonable path to answering them.
Second, I'd like to see more focus on the part of individual players. Injuries and new players made last fall a zoo. Everybody knows that working in Greg Oden is going to be a priority. Beyond that there shouldn't be that much upheaval in the lineup. It would be nice to see everybody stop worrying about who is going to play where and start worrying how they can play well. Andre Miller knows what this team is like now. Brandon Roy knows what a struggle the season can be. LaMarcus Aldridge knows where he excelled and fell short last year. Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum know what they need to do in order to get playing time. The earliest barometer of Portland's success will be how many players come into camp in shape, ready to play, itching to win. If Brandon Roy hasn't touched a basketball all summer, if Andre Miller can't complete the fitness test, if Greg Oden weighs 350 pounds, if LaMarcus Aldridge hasn't worked on his handle or post game at all, if Nicolas Batum is exhausted, if Martell Webster is grumpy, if Rudy Fernadez's head is somewhere else, if Jerryd Bayless hasn't prepared for the team game, the Blazers are in trouble. It's time for this team to shed its "Aw shucks" young image and assume a mantle of dedication and maybe even a little seriousness. The closer the team is to being a machine as pre-season comes to a close the better off it will be.
That's my definition of a summer well-spent. What's yours? Share below.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Dave,
you once said that the team with the fewest questions stands the best chance of winning a ring. Just like you said above, the whole focus this summer needs to be spent on eliminating question marks. If we can come into the 2010-11 season with a healthy roster and solidified roles I think the sky is the limit.
Andre Miller is the old guy in the corner at the YMCA who gets picked last and then wins the game singlehandedly with sky hooks from the deep right corner. - dwaynebillybob
Yup
I don’t think they’ll be able to eliminate enough questions this summer to rise to untouchable status but the goal is to chop them down enough that the start the season after is completely solid with everyone pointing in the same direction and no doubts that this is our year.
—Dave
I'm beginning to be convinced
that this may be a good option. It can’t be just any role player, of course, as you can only trade these promising young guys once. You have to make it good. But I’m thinking of what Grant Hill or Leandro Barbosa did for Phoenix. Is that kind of guy out there? A guy who is solid, aggressive, knows his stuff, can contribute for years, but isn’t the star-level player that would require half your roster to get.
—Dave
I love Haslem
And if the Heat lose Wade (and some how don’t get a uber star) they might need help rebuilding.
he is a free agent
thus no need to trade anything
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
draft Ekpe Udoh
by thomasikehara on Jun 3, 2010 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Howard
Seems to me J. Howard was brought in as just that type of player last year, but due to the injuries it did work out that way.
I don't know about that.
He drafted Oden instead of another defensively challenged wing scorer. He drafted Batum, which is pretty much exactly what the roster needed. Every season that the team brought in a new PG, he shipped an old one out. They needed a defensive minded center who could rebound and he traded two bench players for exactly what the roster needed. I think he’s actually done a pretty amazing job. I give him a solid B+.
I guess Patty Mills was a bad idea, but I get the feeling he knew that at the time.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 3, 2010 3:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Patty Mills was an Allen thing
I seem to recall nate/pritch wanting to sign Collins not Mills…
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
don't forget what Millsap's agent said
First of all, making a toxic offer to Paul when you already have a young starting PF in place kind of reinforces this point…
Back in July, Millsap’s agent said that Portland doesn’t acquire players based on position, KP just stockpiles the BPA and it’s Nate’s job to make them all fit. This can lead to logjams and PT conflicts. It was great to have “too much depth” last year when the injury bug bit down hard, but in an average season having too many young players who are all vying for “more important roles” isn’t conducive to having a well-oiled machine at the end of the regular season
I think the roster is better balanced than it was 12 months ago (due to additions of Miller and Camby and the subtractions of Outlaw and Blake) but KP needs to do a little more consolidating and a little less shopping at the big box store
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
This has been a frequent complaint of yours and I don't understand your point.
I look at the team and I see the most balanced roster in the league:
Oden, Camby, Pryz
LMA, Camby, Cunningham, Pendy
Batum, Martell, Cunningham
Roy, Rudy, Bayless
Miller, Bayless, Mills
Where do you see a terrible imbalance? I see only three potential needs:
1) Back-up SG: a better defender who is happier with their role and can spread the floor;
2) Possibly a more proven 3rd string PG, although Mills may be up to the task;
3) Possibly a more proven “banger” PF although Pendergraph may grow into that role.
The Blazers will enter next season with 6 players, including all 5 starters, with a PER above 17. Nobody else in the league has more than 4 players at that level. In addition, Bayless, Cunningham, and Rudy have all played near or above 15. It is a breadth of talent unmatched in the league outside of Boston (which is old), Orlando, and maybe Phoenix (if they don’t loose Amare).
The team has defensive specialists in the middle in Oden, Camby, and Pryz. It has quality defenders on the perimeter in Batum and increasingly Webster. It has quality shooters to spread the floor in Batum, Rudy, and Martell. It has perimeter guys who can penetrate in Roy, Miller and Bayless. It has emerging low post threats in Oden and LMA.
We don’t exactly know how all the pieces will fit together because the injuries mean that we have never seen our projected starting five on the floor together, but I certainly don’t see “imbalance.” What is your complaint?
by upper left corner on Jun 3, 2010 5:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Back-up SG seems to be the biggest need
And I believe JJ Redick is that guy that the Blazers should trade two young pieces for.
On top of that, I concur with everything that’s been said here: 1) Health, 2) Consistency, and, 3) Playing time together to increase meshness (!) Are all extremely relevant and important. But across the board improvement for all of the still developing players – #1 LaMarcus Aldridge; #2 Nicolas Batum; #3 Greg Oden; #4 Jerryd Bayless; #5 Martell Webster is absolutely critical.
Like Upper Left says, the Blazers are balanced as currently constructed, a two-for-one trade would help but health, consistency and playing time together will result in a better team.
there is no puddin' faced caucasian with a low usage and high TS%
There are 5 in the league, and ak wants every one.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
I'd like to see a consolidation trade at this juncture, even though it could be difficult to accomplish ...
that objective. As I’ve written earlier, though, I’d push extremely hard for a trade such as Martell Webster, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and the 22nd pick in the 2010 NBA Draft to the New Orleans Hornets for James Posey and Darren Collison. From there, Mike Miller would be my target in free agency for the MLE and someone like Keyon Dooling — who’ll likely be waived by the New Jersey Nets due to having only a partially guaranteed contract — with the BAE.
ROSTER
STARTING LINEUP
C: Greg Oden (30 MPG)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (36 MPG)
SF: Nicolas Batum (30 MPG)
SG: Brandon Roy (36 MPG)
PG: Andre Miller (30 MPG)
BACKUPS
C/PF: Marcus Camby (30 MPG)
SF/SG: Mike Miller (24 MPG)
G: Darren Collison (24 MPG)
BENCHWARMERS
C: Jeff Pendergraph
PF: Dante Cunningham
SF: James Posey
G: Keyon Dooling
INACTIVE
C: Joel Przybilla
ROTATION
FIRST 6 MINUTES OF 1st & 3rd QUARTERS
C: Greg Oden
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller
NEXT 3 MINUTES OF 1st & 3rd QUARTERS
C: Marcus Camby
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Mike Miller
SG: Darren Collison
PG: Andre Miller
FINAL 3 MINUTES OF 1st & 3rd QUARTERS
C: Marcus Camby
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Mike Miller
PG: Darren Collison
FIRST 6 MINUTES OF 2nd & 4th QUARTERS
C: Greg Oden
PF: Marcus Camby
SF: Mike Miller
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Darren Collison
NEXT 3 MINUTES OF 2nd & 4th QUARTERS
C: Marcus Camby
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller
FINAL 3 MINUTES OF 2nd & 4th QUARTERS
C: Greg Oden
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Andre Miller
That, ULC, would be a truly well-balanced roster, with guys who are good stylistic fits with one another.
posey has proven to be a horrible horrible horrible decision maker
the whornets would jump for joy at the opportunity to unload him.
so i would hate to get him, but i like you not playing him at all.
i do think dooling is a great option if he becomes available.
it’s good to have dudes who already have had their dreams smashed from a being in the league a few years and are now just in it for paychecks, spot pt, and roadtrip dalliances.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
I love that trade
If the Blazers do exactly what you just wrote I will be one happy happy guy!
C*mcast sucks!
by Blazermaniac77 on Jun 3, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the detailed response
Essentially, you are suggesting trading Martell, Rudy, and Bayless and replacing them with Collison and Miller.
That may or may not be the best approach to tightening our rotation and strengthening our bench. I like both guys, and think it would be a nice roster. However, I certainly don’t see how this is a dramatic change in roster balance.
You are trading one young PG for another. Both are fast and good scorers. At present, one is more of a shooter and the other is more of a penetrator. I would argue that Bayless is likely to develop more as a shooter than Collison is to develop the strength and explosiveness to get to the line like Bayless can.
Collison is a better distributor at this point, but he should be given that he was a four year player. Collison is more of a sure thing, but his lack of size is an issue. Again, I like Collison, and think you can make a good case for him. On the other hand trading three young talents and a draft pick is very expensive. Personally, I would rather give Bayless another year. If he develops as a distributor and a shooter you may have a player who is potentially even better than Collison without giving up so much.
You are basically replacing both Rudy and Martell with Miller. Miller is a nice efficient player. I really like his rebounding and assist numbers as well as his excellent % from 3. It is a bit of a concern that he is now 30 and his PER hs been done a bit for the last three seasons, but I haven’t watched him play enough to have any opinion one way or the other as to how much he has left in his tank.
I think your proposal is reasonable. I might not be inclined to make the same deal at this point, but I definitely see the logic of your proposal. What I don’t see is how a nice tweak justifies your original statement that KP doesn’t understand roster balance.
by upper left corner on Jun 4, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was a bit hard on Kevin Pritchard about roster balance.
Once Pritchard made the Marcus Camby trade, it showed movement in the right direction.
I, however, occasionally get wound real tight about stuff, with roster balance and stylistic fit being two of those things. And, if nothing else, I do feel bad for Pritchard, since him twisting in the wind regarding job security is a cruel move by Paul Allen.
The Blazers will enter next season with 6 players, including all 5 starters, with a PER above 17
Should be an enbarrassment of riches, but the whole could become less than the sum of it’s parts if the players aren’t complementary and don’t share the ball and defend well as a unit.
The Piston’s team won with a covey of 7s but no 9s or 10s (team-first concept) but they all knew their roles and defended the heck out of it. Offensively, the Blazers may score well in the PER chart until the playoffs roll around, and I’m more concerned about playoff success than Hollinger-ish rankings during November-March
We’re not talking about major roster changes, here. Just take a couple of “maybes” and flip them for one or two “for sure” players who don’t need more than 15-20 mpg to leave their mark on the W-L column, 80+ nights a year. These guys aren’t easy to come by, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be identified, pursued and secured during this offseason.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Convergence
I have enjoyed what seems to be a convergence in our thinking on a number of issues.
I agree that the big unkown at this point, besides Oden’s health, is how all the talent blends together. A consolidation trade to shore up the rotation and solidify the bench is easy to propose in theory, but hard to get right in reality.
KP, or whomever takes over the reigns, needs to send the right pieces out and get the right piece back. It is easy to end up paying too much young talent for a guy in decline.
by upper left corner on Jun 4, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
It is easy to end up paying too much young talent for a guy in decline.
That’s always a risk (especially when Trader Bob was in charge) but the flip side is holding onto your young players and never moving them when their value is at it’s peak and acquiring that one “missing piece” who can bring the bench together and inspire everyone everyone else to play hard.
Fortunately, when he had to make a deal KP showed that he would take a couple of his team favorite (popular) players and make a deal that improved the roster (Camby) That makes me more confident he’ll do what’s necessary—and we’ve seen disgruntled players leave Portland on draft day the last 2 Junes, so it will surprise me if Rudy is still on the roster in July—but of course you can never underestimate the owner’s overriding veto power
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Andre Miller isn't coming into training camp in shape.
He is going to have a slow start, guaranteed. Lets hope that’s not a barometer for success.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 3, 2010 3:03 AM PDT reply actions
he allegedly said he wants to be in better shape this training camp
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
draft Ekpe Udoh
by thomasikehara on Jun 3, 2010 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions
what he didn't tell you
is the shape he’s shooting for is ‘round’
by dwaynebillybob on Jun 3, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Where did you read/hear that?
Because the start slow, finish strong thing allowed him to play all 82 again last season… I like the last bit, but showing up not in shape is kind of questionable.
"I come to you now, at the turn of the tide." -- Brandon "Gandalf" Roy, April 24th, 2010
I personally don't mind
as long as he stays healthy, I would say that about most of roster.
Draft Cole Aldrich
In terms of the available free agent crop for our kind of available money (MLE + BAE), I like the 2011 crop better than the 2010 class
Despite all the superstars running around, yet who all won’t come to the Blazers.
So KP could be very right to focus on zigging in the draft and trying to make something happen there (a trade up for the Blazers or for another team to enable a significant deal), instead of zagging for a free agent like so many teams this summer.
Then in 2011, a lot of great role players (Prince and Battier and Butler and some big men are only the tip of the unrestricted free agent iceberg coming up) might be had for the MLE.
And
a year of decent health that lets this team play together and see some playoff success will be worth more consideration for the 2011 role players
"Better, not good, but better." - Herb Brooks
an give us a real picture of what the roster is like
everything this season was just a patchwork…never really saw what we could do with unit cohesion and so forth…
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Don't open the door while the cake is still in the oven.
That is my definition of success. Avoid the temptation to make any big deals unless they are slam dunks. Other than perhaps needing a better 2-3 role player who is a great defender and who can spread the floor, I really like our roster.
The admonition in my comment headline applies to the Vulcans as well. Don’t fire Pritchard. He has put together a heck of a roster, with a Euro farm team as back-up. Now is not the time to mess things up.
Let’s get everybody healthy. Let’s keep the young guys working on their skills. Let’s get Nate working on some new offensive schemes to take advantage of the breadth of talent on the roster, rather than relying so heavily on Roy.
Let’s roll the balls out in October. If the team isn’t as good as it looks on paper, we can make additional deals at the trade deadline based on an evaluation of our needs.
by upper left corner on Jun 3, 2010 5:56 AM PDT reply actions
I also think we should be looking for a 2-3 role player
and the best one that comes to mind for me personally that can defend and spread the floor is Mickael Pietrus. At 28 he should have another solid 4-5 years left in him, and that is about the window of time we’re looking at for this team, so I think he would be a great backup for Roy and Batum. I think the next best option as some have mentioned would be Mike Miller. He’s not quite as good defensively, but more versatile offensively I think.
Humor? Or are you saying you don't think we have the talent to compete?
I think Portland has an amazing amount of talent. The PER of our eight top players looks like this:
Oden 23.1
Roy 21.3
LMA 18.2
Miller 18.1
Batum 17.0
Camby 17.0
Bayless 14.2
Martell 12.3
Add in Rudy who was over 25 as a rookie, Cunningham who was at 14.2 as a rookie, and you have an amazing level of production. Most of our young guys are likely to improve, and our two old guys haven’t dropped off much so far.
The Lakers have only three players over 17.0
Boston only has three guys over 17.0
I realize PER is an offensive oriented stat, but we have three defensive oriented rotation players who actually have PER ratings above 17.0: GO, Camby, and Batum. So we have guys who are productive in both directions as opposed to guys like Fisher and Artest who are at 9.7 and 12.3 respectively.
by upper left corner on Jun 3, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
without a fully healthy Oden playing big time minutes (ie having kicked the foul trouble problem), and working well with Roy, there isn’t enough high end talent on this team.
the foul trouble thing was getting better
I am not so worried about that…it will sort itself out…
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
no it wasn't getting better
his foul rate was just as a atrocious last year. in his last 10 full games played oden did the following:
5 in 30
5 in 24
4 in 28
5 in 25
4 in 27
2 in 24
4 in 24
4 in 24
5 in 34
6 in 17
average = 4.4 / 25.7
that’s a foul every 5.8 minutes. that’s historically awful and not much different than the 5.6 minutes he’s average over his entire career.
How does Oden’s foul rate compare to Dwight Howard’s? Did Howard’s rate change from his first year to his fourth? I’m just curious.
Lets see some stats on this.
We can all say things like Howards was much less. Lets see some stats. If I was anywhere near a stats guy i would do it, but I just don’t have the head for it.
by BlazerFanFromDenver on Jun 3, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Howard’s fouls/36 minutes each year: 3.1, 3.3, 2.9, 3.2, 3.4, 3.6
Shaq: 3.8, 3.1, 3.2, 3.6, 3.3 etc.
Oden: 6.5, 6.0
sweet
Thanks. i knew one of you wonderful folks would be able to pull those stats.
by BlazerFanFromDenver on Jun 3, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Here is the thing I don't get with Nate and Greg's fouls
Nate is as much if not more responsble for cutting Greg’s minutes than Greg’s fouls are.
5 in 30, legit
5 in 24, also seems legit against a very physical Utah team.
4 in 28, I don’t get this. against memphis where Greg ended with 13/10/3, was 4-8 from the field and was getting to the line (5-6). This game is one of those games where Nate cut Greg’s minutes, not his fouls.
5 in 25, legit
4 in 27, Why only 27 mins? Ya the game was a blow out win, but Greg was playing great and should have stayed in for the experience.
2 in 24, 2 fouls but only 24 mins? Another blow out, where Greg could have played more.
4 in 24, this one really irks me, against Golden State, who had no big men to speak of, Greg only plays 24 mins. The Blazers lose this game, eventhough Greg was having a great game that could have been a monster game if his coach had left him in. (16/6/1 in 24 mins)
4 in 24, This was another one that really ticked me off. Against Detroit, Greg was playing well, 6/10/3 in his limited mins. There was no reason for Greg to not play 30 + mins here. Even by Greg’s foul rate, he would have only picked up 1 more foul on avg.
5 in 34, This is the game line that Greg should have with his current foul rate. Low 30’s in minutes with all his fouls used.
6 in 17 Legit. – although this was a horribly called game against the Bobcats. 3 of those fouls were bogus.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Jun 3, 2010 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
then rec him
won’t take but a second
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
maybe he was just earning more calls
that i would not consider BS calls or ghost calls and fewer dumb fouls.
part of greg’s foul trouble is on the perimeter defenders also, not staying with their guys.
38.5% of his fouls were on guys that were someone else’s primary responsibility. That means more than 1 in 3 calls on Greg are on guys out of his position. That is a ton of calls. I broke this all down in a post right before the Houston game on December 5th.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/12/5/1187258/charting-greg-odens-f
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
by PDXBuckeye on Jun 3, 2010 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
and a rec for you
don’t shoot the big man for trying to cover for his teammate’s weak perimeter D
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
that figure
is based on guards and small forwards by the way…power forwards are counted as in his responsibility area
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
jksnake, I would love to see you flush out your assertion
I respect your opinions, but I think this is a huge assertion to be making without any real analysis to back it up. This is the $100 million question: Do the Blazers have the talent to get to the elite level?
I have been working on a huge post that attempts to look at this question. I am probably a day or two away from having it finished, but my conclusion is just the opposite of the opinion you voice here. I think the Blazers have the talent to challenge the league elite. We may not have the experience, or the coaching, to win it all next year, but I think we have the talent.
Obviously, you disagree. I would like to see you explain your reasoning and discuss whether or not you have any numbers to back up that reasoning.
by upper left corner on Jun 3, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
pretty simple really— is a top 10 (but not top 5) player with durability concerns, a top 10 per-minute player with huge foul trouble concerns and bigger injury concerns (such that he can’t be considered an elite player in terms of value) and a bunch of role players enough to win a title? I have a hard time seeing it.
With a fully healthy Oden playing 35 mpg, a fully healthy Roy playing at or above ‘08-’09 levels and a coach who could teach them to play better than mediocre defense, suddenly a championship becomes plausible, but its hard to see that happening.
yeah, the health factor is a significant concern in projecting the Blazers future
Assumimg perfect health, we plausibly have the significant pieces to be contenders, particularly with optimized coaching. But Roy’s missed games this year, plus the possibility that his play was hindered by injuries at times when he did play, plus the obvious health history of Oden so far on the team, really do make it hard to have confidence that the injuries are all behind us now. I certainly hope for team health, but hard to be confident. It would be nice if some significant enhancements could be made to our training regimen which showed good results.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
and even both Oden and Roy are fully healthy, I’m not sure LMA is a good enough 3rd best player. Maybe Batum can be.
Really? Why not?
He really only struggles when doubled. How they gonna double him with a healthy Oden and Roy on the floor? I also seriously doubt we have seen his best ball yet. Bigs peak later than smalls. Go lookupt Bosh’s stats from his fourth year and compare to LMA. Not to mention we won 50 with a crap load of injuries and LMA as our only health front court player. He has an impact on the game and it is mostly good.
That said, he can’t carry a team. But third best? I’ll take him!
O.R.
LaMarcus Aldridge is nowhere near the level of Chris Bosh. Aldridge is on the same tier ...
of David West, who’s similarly overrated by most folks.
Chris Bosh’s 3rd season was far superior to any season Aldridge has put up. Players have generally come close to their peak by this point in Aldridge’s career. He’s shown no statistical improvement since his 2nd year. Its likely he has plateaued.
Could Aldridge be the 3rd best player on a title team if the first two guys were good enough? Yes, absolutely, but I think at least one of those guys would have to be on the LeBron James level of greatness.
Even then, a guy like LeBron James would definitely be better off with a low-usage, ...
defensive-minded power forward alongside him like Anderson Varejao. Y’know, I only feel sorry for two players on this season’s Cleveland Cavaliers squad: James & Varejao.
Nice!
Varejao is a pudding face, and he probably would put hispanic/nonwhite on his census form, so we’re up to 6 players for you!
dinasour type of guys choir boys
You've got me.
All I know is that both Anderson Varejao and Mike Miller allegedly have a “pudding face” — as do 4 other unnamed players — although J.J. Redick doesn’t qualify for the distinction.
17 ppg isnt good enough to be a 3rd fiddle??
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
draft Ekpe Udoh
by thomasikehara on Jun 3, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Playoff PER shows something entirely different too.
In fact, the Blazer with the best PER in the playoffs was none other than Dante Cunningham with an outstanding 24.78 (5th best!), albeit in 8.4 mins/game. Nevertheless, Dante was also top 10 in true shooting percentage and rebound rate.
The next best Blazer was LMA with 17.43 followed by Bayless 15.27, Miller, 15.03 and Camby 13.79.
Our fearless leader, Brandon Roy clocked in a miserable PER of just 4.4.
A perfectly reasonable comment.
I just hope the cake is not burning.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
I have a new theory for the 2010/11 roster which is based on a few key points but would lead to some major roster upheaval (therefore v. unlikely)
1) You need frontcourt depth. If this season has taught us anything then this should be it.
2) Roles and to some degree minutes need to be clearly defined at the start of the season and evolve from there as logic and injuries dictate.
3) Balance and chemistry can outweigh talent if it is poorly assembled or utilised. A balanced roster with talent is the best way to cultivate chemistry (winning + players knowing their place)
To achieve this I have a basic idea for the structure of the roster which is:
- Starting 5 full of talented and productive young players
- 2-3 core reserves who will be experienced and versatile enough to play more than one position
- Next 5 are players who are clearly best at one position and are productive but not reliable enough to be a full-time backup
- 2-3 spots left for projects if desired or left open
As our roster currently stands we have 4 of the 5 starters (BRoy, LA, GO and NB), 1 perfect reserve player (Camby) and 2-3 guys who could do the 3rd string thing (DC and JP plus maybe Patty [in v. limited minutes])
To make this vision a reality we make the following moves:
Miller to Memphis for Mike Conley (Saves us 3 million in luxury tax room and gives us our final starter)
Webster to New Jersey for Keyon Dooling (Saves further 800k and gives us a second reliable reserve)
Trade Przy + future 1st to Minnesota for #16
Trade Rudy to Miami for Daequan Cook
Package Bayless with the #44 and move up to draft Quincy Pondexter
Draft Kevin Seraphin with the #22 as a project/potential replacement for Camby in 2-3 years
Draft Avery Bradley as a project to potentially replace Dooling or Conley in the future should either not work out
Sign Mike Miller (4ish million in savings from trades makes it more financially viable and gives third reliable reserve)
Soooo…..
Conley/Dooling/Mills or Bradley
Roy/Miller/Cook
Batum/Miller/Pondexter
Aldridge/Camby/Cunningham
Oden/Camby/Pendergraph or Seraphin
Starters all get 30mins +
Miller gets 25-30mpg (15-18 behind Batum, 10-12 behind Roy)
Camby gets 20-25 mpg (12-15 behind Oden, 8-10 behind Aldridge)
Dooling gets 15-18 mpg behind Conley
Something like that anyway – I think that team would be competitive and would have the foundation in place to replace the core reserves and risky elements in the starting 5 (Conley and Oden) if necessary.
2011 staring lineup: #11, #7, #88, #12, #52 Reserves: #6, #21, #4, #33, #31, #20, #8
andre miller is more productive than mike conley
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
draft Ekpe Udoh
by thomasikehara on Jun 3, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Absolutely
Just don’t think his weaknesses are compatible with our other starters.
2011 staring lineup: #11, #7, #88, #12, #52 Reserves: #6, #21, #4, #33, #31, #20, #8
it seemed to work out ok this year
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
draft Ekpe Udoh
by thomasikehara on Jun 3, 2010 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions
It never happened this year
He played well with scrubs and never played a substantial amount of time with Roy when he was healthy.
I’m just not feeling Dre next year, I’d rather go in another direction.
2011 staring lineup: #11, #7, #88, #12, #52 Reserves: #6, #21, #4, #33, #31, #20, #8
I agree
With the aspirations we have for the Blazers, they can’t just have a point guard that “works out o.k.”….it has to work GREAT!….that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need the most talented point guard out there, but I do think they need a better fit with the pieces around them.
the key word there being "is"
but the question is, for how long???? (the guy’s gonna be 35 next season) I’d much rather have Conley and Bayless fighting it out for minutes to see if one of them could turn into a legit point guard in the next couple seasons because, even though Miller is the safe bet and the proven veteran, I don’t think his skill set compliments the other players around him enough…at least not enough to get us to the NBA finals. I really think we do need a point guard that can hit the three and space the floor, and although I’m not totally sold on Conley, he seems to be able to knock down the outside jumper fairly efficiently, and there’s the added bonus that he has played with Oden in the past, which could be beneficial both for Oden, and for Conley’s integration into the team.
Way too much caffeine
I really liked your first two paragraphs then…….. it seems to me, you spun off into a fantasy league GM gone to the dark side.
I agree with your description of what is needed, but I don’t think you have to do half of what you proposed to get there.
We have the four starters: Oden, LMA, Nic, and Roy. AGREED
But then, Conley? I know this is a commonly expressed solution to the long term need at PG, but it doesn’t make much sense to me:
1) In the short run, Conley is unlikely to make us better than giving Miller a second year at the helm. Conley’s PER actually regressed last year to a mediocre 13.9 compared to Millers 18.1. His TS% was slightly lower than Miller’s at .524 compared to Miller’s .530. His AST% was substantially lower at 24.8 compared to Millers 30.4.
2) The real problem with this trade is that you don’t explain why Memphis would do this? Portland is in transition at PG, so Miller may be the perfect bridge to Bayless becoming our long range starter, but Memphis is building for the future. Why would they trade Conley for Miller?
3) In the long run, I doubt that Conley is going to be anywhere near as good as Bayless. Conley doesn’t have Bayless’ size or strength. He doesn’t have Bayless’ ability to draw fouls and get to the rim. The only two areas where Conley is better than Bayless so far are AST% and 3 pt. . In both cases, the edge is small and rapidly narrowing. Bayless AST and 3 pt. % for the last couple of months was higher than Conley’s season stats. Conley regressed almost across the board last season his PER, TS%, AST%, 3 pt. % all dropped. All of which suggests that he may have plateaued at a very young age. Meanwhile, Bayless improved dramatically in the regular season and then stepped up even further in the post-season. There is every reason to believe that Bayless has the physical tools and the work ethic to continue the trend. It is far less certain that Conley is going to make substantial improvement.
Bayless is a guy who can give you what you say we need. A back-court player who can combine with our two back-court starters to form a solid three player rotation. Miller has the size to play decent defense against many SGs. He Roy and Bayless could make a very effective guard rotation that would take advantage of Bayless’ scoring prowess, give Bayless a chance to develop his distribution skills and help Miller defend the smaller, quicker PGs that give him difficulty.
Roy, Miller, and Bayless in the backcourt.
Oden, LMA, and Camby in the front court.
Batum and Webster/Upgrade as our defensive wings who can spread the floor.
Pryz, Pendergraph, Cunningham 3/4, Rudy replacement, 3rd string PG.
If we could find a better defender who was a more consistent scorer off the bench as an upgrade to Webster that would be great. Mike Miller is a good candidate, but I think there are others who could also fit the bill.
Changing PGs and adding three rookies just slows down the teams development and makes no sense to me. Given Roy’s history of knee problems, I think our window may not last longer than the next few years. Stability isn’t a bad thing.
by upper left corner on Jun 3, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
It did become quite a task to fulfill my vision so perhaps I went over the top. However….
1) I prefer Conley to Miller or Bayless as our starting pg because I like his strengths for the rest of our roster and believe in his quality as a player. His situation has been less than ideal IMO.
2) Memphis wants to reach the playoffs from the moves they have made recently (Z-Bo, Tinsley etc) so having a quality veteran pg to utilise their young talent would be logical way to achieve this goal.
3) It is true that Conley was unimpressive statistically as Memphis’ starting pg the past couple of years but to say he has plateaued when he is just a year older with a year more in the league than Bayless is a tad ridiculous. He has the tools to be an ideal starting pg for us, I just feel that Memphis has been hopeless at developing talent (Gay and Mayo as two other examples). Bayless has a style of play and talent that will make him an impact player in this league, I just don’t feel that style is what we need in a guard playing off Brandon Roy.
I’ll agree that my post became a tad complex but I think the moves would be acceptable to both sides and I believe that the resulting roster would be competitive short-term and long-term.
2011 staring lineup: #11, #7, #88, #12, #52 Reserves: #6, #21, #4, #33, #31, #20, #8
Didn't mean to give you a hard time..... just a little good natured teasing.
Your post had a lot of good ideas, I guess I just happen to be one of those crusty old guys who is rather skeptical of the possibility of pulling off multiple transactions and trades. I prefer to discuss trades one at a time otherwise it feels like I’m building castles in the air.
Sounds like you are one of the people who really value "fit’ over “performance.” I understand the concept, but sometimes I think it is difficult to predict a players fit. I have seen a lot of trades that looked good on paper but didn’t work on the floor. I guess I would be reluctant to sacrifice performance unless I was extremely confident on the fit.
I haven’t followed Conley enough to have a definite opinion. Obviously, his friendship with GO would be a real bonus. I guess I just look at the numbers and it doesn’t look good to me. He has shown very little improvement from year 1 through year 3. My general impression has been that he gets along well with Hollins, so I’m not sure why you think the situation is responsible for his mediocre stats.
by upper left corner on Jun 3, 2010 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with ULC
I was ready to rec your response until you mentioned the Conley trade. Don’t get into a big hurry to trade Miller, because I really doubt the Blazer’s front office is
I suggested acquiring Dooling last year (in one of my Devin Harris proposals, because Keyon shot 40+ as a reserve PG from downtown, in 2008-2009) and without Blake on the roster he makes even more sense now, depending on what the Blazers are thinking re: Jerryd’s role (backup 1 or 2?) I don’t think Bayless is going anywhere and his role should continue to expand
As far as drafting Pondexter, I just don’t see him getting any PT behind Batum, Webster and Cunningham for the next 3 years. Maybe a little PT, if Martell was traded..but if that was the case, I’d prefer a SF who can shoot from 3, and that’s not Quincy (at least, not without a lot of work, and I’d rather leave that job “open” for Dante)
I’m also leaning towards filling the backup 2-3 with a veteran acquired using the MLE, like Mike Miller or Raja Bell. Those guys know who they are already and how they can fit into a playoff bench/rotation
I agree that Rudy should be dealt, but I expect it will be to improve the Blazer’s draft position and not acquire another player, whether that’s moving up from 22 or up from 44 remains to be seen
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I understand
I was just running through the type of offseason I would like to see. Conley is always going to be controversial because of the stats vs. fit argument. I would do it, most wouldn’t. Bradley and Seraphin are great prospects for us (I like Bradley over Bayless as a possible off-guard for BRoy, better fit in terms of D and 3’s). Pondexter probably isn’t necessary but can’t think of anyone I would rather have…
Ah well, I gave it a shot….can’t please everyone.
2011 staring lineup: #11, #7, #88, #12, #52 Reserves: #6, #21, #4, #33, #31, #20, #8
success this summer
defined by: a summer league where Mills, Cunningham, Pendergraph, and a promising rookie make monkeys out of everybody they face, and Pritchard monkeys with the roster as little as possible.
Health and conditioning being a given, of course.
I absolutely agree with both of Dave's points.
Not only does the roster itself need focus, but Nate needs to focus the roles, from the outset. That means going into training camp, the starting rotation needs to be set, and he needs to let those guys play starting roles, though not minutes necessarily, during the preseason. He cannot let the team go into the season in the same kind of funk they did this year.
Success is simple...
Rudy out, some new backup SG that can play with the big kids in — be it through the draft, through a trade, through free agency.
Assuming Oden and eventually Pryz are back, given Pendergraph’s potential, Assuming LMA and Camby aren’t going anywhere with those contracts, the team seems set for bigs (which is something I never thought I’d be saying).
They’ve got 2 more years of Andre and Rex is a thoroughly sufficient backup, so that position is set.
The team has SFs coming out of their aural openings.
Some sort of backup to Roy is the missing piece.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
yep
pretty much everything in a nutshell
Day 1 of camp should be “these are our starters, this is our basic rotation (Camby, Bayless, Wing X), let’s roll”
Top priority for me would be getting a consistently reliable backup wing who we know can and will produce night in and nigh out of the bench. With Rudy, Bayless, and Martell it’s too much feast or famine. We need a consistent wing scorer off the bench.
How we get there is the question. I don’t think it’s in the draft – I want a proven guy.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Raja Bell perhaps?
I would be worried by his wrist injury, but he’s a good defender, a veteran leader, career 41% 3pt shooter and above average on offense.
I can understand staying away due to the injury, but just an idea.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
If he can pass the physical, I'd make him an offer
you’ve gotta love that shooting % and chippy defensive attitude. RB’s a little small to defend SGs but he’s a pest out on the perimeter
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I thought KP already traded the "aww schucks" attitude
for Camby last season. We need to do nothing this offseason other than add some new skills in our young guys, get healthy, and get an offensive rhythm by meshing Oden back into the offense. Honestly, the only question I see for next season is will the blazers be healthy. If so, I’m confident in our chances against any team (except the Lebrons, as the always seem to get the whistles in close games against us).
too much change is not a good thing - a little change can make all the difference
look at the Fakers, they didn’t upgrade their PG position as expected last offseason, but essentially swapped Ariza for Artest, a move that is paying HUGE dividends for them. Not a huge, sweeping change, but enough of a move that it bolstered their roster. To me, that’s where the Blazers are.
To me, we are a very dangerous team (here comes the big disclaimer) WHEN HEALTHY. When our roster is 100% and contributing, we have one of the best starting 5s AND one of the best benches in the league. Because of that, I’m not of the belief that we need to swing any major trades, move up in the draft, etc. However, I do think that if we can take JPEC (given that Oden comes back ready to go, and with Camby as insurance) and one of our young prospects (namely Rudy – I like what Martell and Jerryd bring to our 2nd unit at their positions) to get a contributing rotation player that’s a better fit with our team and could help put is over the edge (like Dave said – a Grant Hill or Barbosa type of player) I’m all for it.
by rip_city_swagger on Jun 3, 2010 10:38 AM PDT reply actions
HUGE dividends?
They won the championship last year with Ariza. It’s not like Artest is going to win them a Super-Secret Double Championship. At best he can just help them get to the same place that Ariza helped get them to.
But you’re right about the second part. We are a strong, scary squad when healthy. I just wanted to float the idea of a Super-Secret Double Championship out there to see if Stern will bite. (David, I know you’re watching.)
it is paying huge dividends
Ariza had the stretch of his LIFE last postseason, especially in the shooting department. While he had a decent year this year, the Lakers definitely made the right move with that swap-out. And Artest is a much better defender, look at what he did to Kevin Durant, and what he probably is about to do to Paul Pierce – Ariza is nowhere near that level on defense.
My point was that you have to realize your window, and make moves to be as good as you can be while its open. Artest gave the Lakers the best chance to “win now”, during Kobe’s prime. It wasn’t a huge change (they play the same position) – but they made themselves a stronger team – which is what I think the Blazers need to do at this point.
by rip_city_swagger on Jun 3, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
they added Ron-Ron to defend Melo and/or LeBron
and he wound up making the biggest play of the WCF against the Suns
now he’s manhandling Pierce, and even though Paul scored 24 the L*kers won easily by being more-physical than Boston?
bangers come in all shapes and sizes, and June is the month where they come in most handy
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We need personnel changes,
but not too many involving players.
1) We need to model our training/conditioning/medical staff along the lines of what Phoenix has done.
2) We need a big man coach.
3) Nate needs to expand his offensive schemes so that we don’t rely so much on isolation, and we better utilize our athletic advantage.
4) We need to either trade Rudy, or help him improve where he needs to: attitude, strength, mid-range game, defense.
It's tough...
This past season was great only from the standpoint that I think we saw the benefits of great depth and good character. This team in the face of unpredictable adversity in the specific form of almost never ending injury…performed very well.
But the unavoidable negative side affect is that we never got to see this whole roster as it was invisioned. It was a season played mostly in “emergency mode” with a constant eye on adaptation.
What is success this off-season? I don’t think it really has changed. You want to add talent that makes your team better. That’s a simplification and a generalization. You can debate the specifics, of who we should draft, what trades we can dream up but it’s all going to be what is possible, what can be made possible. What most fans don’t think about, is I don’t think that is static…I think in an off-season, in a business like N.B.A. franchise building that is an ever changing enviroment.
Making the franchise better is a job that never really ends. For fans, the off-season focuses speculation with an approaching draft and the formal start of free-agent and trade “season” .
It’s not that I don’t care. But I think concrete speculation is so impossible that over the years I’ve learned to just relax. I evaluate based more on the big picture than what I can dream or think might happen on any given day…even draft day.
I think The Blazers have an excellent staff. I think we have very well respected scouts and talent evaluators. I think other teams are envious of the resources The Blazers have at their disposal.
I think Kevin Pritchard is a hard working individual. I think constant investigation into every avenue and potential avenue of improvement will happen.
Then I look at the big picture. We’ve made moves both subtle and bold. Batum, Rudy, and I think Claver were all good picks. Pendergraph and Cunningham as well. I don’t feel The Blazers have wasted a resource.
Last season for a team that lost Oden and Przybilla the late season trade for Camby was brilliant…signing him for the future was a great move.
What would define success for me? To allow this franchise to continue to improve be it through the draft, trade or the simple healing of bone and sinew. To that end, I think it very important that ultimately who’s in charge and who IS management is important. The biggest cloud hanging over The Blazers is the enigma that has become the relationship between Pritchard and Blazer Management.
We have Pritchard and his staff saying glowing things about each other, and then on the other side we have a strange silence. Whatever happens we need to go into next season with EVERYONE on the same page. Getting everyone onboard and on the same page is important…right now between Miller, KP and Allen I’m not sure that is the case.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
success for our players is three-fold:
a) drink more milk. it does a body good.
b) go to France and train with Batum and the national team and have everyone’s shooting % go bananas.
c) have everyone come in early like a few years back so they can work on their defensive rotations and ball movement on offense so we can ditch the iso-heavy playcalling late in games. ( It didn’t work for Kobe before Phil, it didn’t work for LBJ this year, it’s not gonna work with BRoy. It’s a team game and teams are what win championships. And, with the players we have, we could be a formidable one when it all clicks.)
have everyone come in early like a few years back so they can work on their defensive rotations
If the players come in early the coaches can’t be a part of the scrimmages. The players basically play “pick-up” ball to improve their conditioning and get their timing back in synch
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
And it really doesn't work to well for kobe now
he’s 0-2 on last second shots this post season. iso offense is not the answer. As for the off-season, resist the urge to do stuff in the draft, 2006 was a lot of fun, but real teams don’t win through the draft, except SA. I think tightening the rotation through a trade is the best move, move some combination of bayless rudy annd martell for a john salmons like player, who would be a perfect fit for us. Most importantly, get people who are sure of what their role on the team should be. Andre was good when he knew his role, so was howard
real teams don’t win through the draft, except SA
I don’t want a wooden-boy team, I want the Blazers to be a real contender. DeJuan Blair made an immediate impact in the Spurs rotation last year, and this year’s draft is even deeper
I agree about tightening the rotation via trade, but that trade might be draft-related, to move up the board. And “the people who are sure of their role” might be available for the MLE in July instead of being part of a deal
Salmons has an ETO and will likely opt out and be more spendy than Portland can afford. Besides, I don’t think John and Brandon would be as effective together as they are on seperate teams, and Batum’s PT would suffer if the Blazer were to add a 2-3 with as much star power as Salmons
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I would like to see
The team probably needs a drop dead shooter.
Both Roy and Miller at least pick up a basketball this summer, maybe dribble it a few times.
Oden’s rehab complete, and I would like to see a few highly reliable go-to offensive moves developed. The team needs to learn how to win with him being an inside presence.
Rudy – shake the pressure off, get his shot back.
Bayless – outside shooting
Batum – free throw shooting. C’mon, he almost hit 90%! Get over the hump.
Martel – I dunno, I think Martel may be at or near his ceiling.
LaMarcus – get in the mode of going to the hoop for a rebound when shots are in the air. Add a go-to move of going to the basket, instead of fading. Make the final commitment and completely add the three pointer, not just a couple feet within the line.
Stuff from anyone else is gravy.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ash.
Martell's off season goal should be getting drunk.
While I am certainly not the one to promote alcohol as a cure, maybe just maybe it would kill off the brain cells that are holding Martell back. Every time I watch him it’s like his brain is actually getting in the way of his ability. Even in warm-ups you can see him thinking about elbow angle, etc. His form is awesome but, he won’t break through until he starts shooting and stops thinking about shooting. And it’s even more dramatic when he dribbles.
The few games a year we see him attack like a savage, mindless pit viper we all drop our nachos on the guy in front of us because he could be so crazy good.
And he’s such a great guy you’re just dying it comes together for him.
PS I’m joking about the drinking. Kids don’t do drugs.
Interesting point
Maybe if coach wasn’t wound tight as a tourniquet the players could loosen up. The overcontrolling character is one of my gripes with Nate’s style. “No headbands” – give me a break.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
A gigantic 70s afro and headband and the new, relaxed Webster is All-World
Everybody responds differently to different ways of motivation. Some players need a coach like Nate who controls and structures everything and others need freedom. Some need a screamer, some need someone quiet. It does seem like Martell, who seems to already be wound pretty tight, needs unwinding from his coach, not more pressure to be perfect.
But who knows what’s going on behind closed doors and what their relationships are really like and what they’re really working on. We only get to see 48 minutes of evidence every game. It hardly makes us experts. Just fans.
I consider the fact that we signed Camby a success already.
Anything that helps from here on out is gravy. If we stay healthy I think the you will see a natural seperation from the guys who are deserving of PT and those who are not.
Do what it takes to get Rondo!!!
Success this summer?
Don’t throw the baby out with the water! Any over reaction at this point would derail this team for a long time. Roy, Aldridge, Batum, Oden, and probably Balyless should be kept and made the focus of this team. Bayless won me over with his gritty playoff series. Given him time to develop his outside shot a little more and watchout.
Any tweaks would probably involve Rudy. I love the guy but he has practically played/talked his way out of here already. I agree that another vet in the backcourt as well as an upgrade in the backup 4 area would make a big difference for us next year. As long as the cost does not involve the 5 above as well as Camby and Miller. Both Andre and Camby are buying us time in the win column for the Oden, LMA, Batum, and Bayless to hit full stride.
O.R.
big goal
I am not sure what the big goal … or a realistic goal is. What Dave describes as success this summer sounds like it is on the path to another 50 win season and early playoff exit. IMO health and chemistry alone won’t push this team over the top. The current roster does not compare favorably to the best in the west. Is it really better than LA, Utah, Phoenix, Dallas or Denver? BEdgers often look at the 12 or 15 man roster when comparing. This is actually not very important. Compare the starting 5 and the 3 others that will make any difference at all. 9-12 (or 15) don’t matter.
Roy is an all-start. Batum is a proven role player. LMA is a nice player with the potential to be a very good (borderline all-star) player. Miller is a proven starter that is aging. After that, mostly questions, Oden being the biggest.
Personally, I am fine with winning 50 games year after year and never winning the west. A city like Portland will be very challenged to do better. I think OKC will have the same problem.
Wow,really!
" The current roster does not compare favorably to the best in the west" 312 games lost to injury & 50 wins. Which of those teams you mentioned could have pulled that off? I’m curious.
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
I agree
If you most objective observer of the NBA, to rank the Blazers five best players with a west contenders five best players, we are going to have our guys at the middle or bottom. Let’s try this (I’m going to try to answer these as I think an objective NBA observer would, which I am not):
Blazers vs Lakers
Kobe
Gasol
Roy
Odom
Artest
Aldridge
Miller
Bynum
Oden
Fisher
Batum
Blazers vs Suns
Nash
Stoudemire
Roy
Aldridge
Richardson
Miller
Oden
Hill
Dragic
Batum
Blazers vs Spurs
Duncan
Roy
Ginobili
Parker
Aldridge
Miller
Jefferson
Oden
Hill
Batum
I may not be objective.
But Artest over everyone but Roy? Fisher over Batum? Bynum over Oden? REALLY! I know GO has been injured but Bynum has been scoped more. I would be interested to see how many people agree with your player rankings.
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
I don't think many Blazer fans will agree with me on this site...
but if you were to ask folks who don’t have a dog in this fight, I suspect the majority would be far more agreeable to my rankings.
I more or less agree with your rankings
but I’m wondering where you’re going with this…do you think the Blazers need to acquire another star player? If so, do you have someone in mind? Fans from other cities aren’t going to rank the young Blazer players very highly against their peers because by the time the casual NBA fan starts paying attention to the playoffs the Blazers have already been eliminated. If Oden can stay healthy and Batum continues to improve and the team advances to the WCF, the red/black cream will start rising to the top of those arbitrary rankings
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
My post is a reply to 55 wins....
who says the Blazers as constructed seem like a 50-55 win team in the regular season, but not a championship caliber team. The exercise I went through was to generate a conversation about how our top 5 players match up with the west contenders’ top 5 players. Because it is usually the team with the best players that win. And I definitely think it is relevant to consider playoff performances, so the current Blazers are knocked down a little when being compared to some of the other contenders except OKC. Right now when you look at where the Blazers match up with other contender’s rosters…and not a hypothetical in the future look, but look at the impact and production of these players have actually had, especially in important games….then you see we are behind the elite in the west. Look at the Lakers for instance, do we have anyone on our roster that is ever going to be as good as Kobe Bryant? Maybe Oden has a 5% chance of being that player….but I wouldn’t bet too much on that. Then you look at Gasol. Is there anyone on Portland’s roster that is going to be as good as Gasol, except maybe Roy? When going through this exercise, if I really try to take my homer Blazer goggles off, I can’t say we have that Laker level of talent on this team. That’s not to say the Blazers do not have a talented team. I believe we will be in the playoffs year after year…and we will even win a few series here and there…but I don’t think this team has the talent to beat a team the caliber of the Lakers in a 7 game series. And when Kobe gets too old to play, there will be other teams who have as much talent to take their place.
So again I ask, what's the answer?
Would you advocate taking a couple of very good players (like LMA and Batum) and trying to acquire another great player, like CP3? Or, keep the core together and hope that Oden stays heathy until he can raise the bar and bring the rest of his teammates up to a higher level?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Would you advocate taking a couple of very good players (like LMA and Batum) and trying to acquire another great player
Yes, if that is available. Very good players are easier to come by than great players – which is why the chances of it happening are not great. Obviously it would have to make sense so that we are not duplicating one star with another star at the same position (e.g. Wade and Roy on the same team). Otherwise, the latter of your choices is the safer and more conservative approach…and the one I think the team will ultimately choose. However, I am hoping that management is aggressive in finding some elite talent to give this team a chance to compete for a championship.
What do you think the best course of action is? Stay the course and hope for the best, or take some chances and try to consolidate some our talent for another elite player?
The one guy I think they could go after is Tony Parker
I happen to like what Andre Miller has done and I’m not in a big hurry to deal him away for the “PG of the future” but when there’s a 27-28 year old PG who has been the MVP of a recent NBA finals and is in the last year of his contract playing on a team with a younger PG who’s about ready to take over, I have to at least consider what it might take to acquire him
I suspect it would take Batum, LMA, or both and I hate to part with either one of them. But I might be persuaded to think about a Parker+Blair for LMA deal, if the Spurs show any interest in dealing Tony during the next 12 months.
Failing that scenario, I’d stay the course and see how much difference a healthy Oden and a developing Batum/Bayless will make. Someone needs to light a fire under Roy and LMA and get them to defend like their lives depend on it, and I’m holding out hope that there’s an assistant coach out there who has the passion and the gravitas to come to PDX and force Nate to take a new look at how best to defend the PnR, etc
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
As a Blazer fan I know that...
as an objective observer of the NBA I don’t think so.
If your using carreer avgs. I can agree with some of these.
However J.Kidd,D.Fish & many of the others you have listed are not the same players they once were. If the list was from 3 years ago you would be closer but as of today no. You have Batum & Oden to low or would you trade them for Okur & Millsap as you have them higher. Defense counts to objective observers as well.
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
Again, I am ranking these players like I think someone would who was not a fan of the Blazers or the
other team…or a rival of either team would. If you ask me, who has had a bigger positive impact over the past couple of seasons on their teams? Oden and Batum or Okur and Millsap? I would say Okur and Millsap. Okur was an all star and Millsap was a legit candidate for 6th man of the year and most improved in the NBA. That’s not to say, that Oden and Batum could change that in the future…but I am looking at what history has actually shown….not what we Blazers are hoping will happen.
I would like to see an objective onserver of the NBA
Cuz I have never met one or even heard of one. So i think you miss your mark with this argument.
by BlazerFanFromDenver on Jun 3, 2010 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he means objective
How one would be comparing two teams that they dont root for or have much interest in. I do think Oden is low, as I think more fans would realize that if healthy Oden would probably rate pretty high. Its the big ?? but that is probably the lowest I could imagine someone rating (a healthy) him (and being serious about it).
Why don't you post the question on a few fansites for teams that don't have an axe to grind?
Say Memphis, New Orleans, and Miami? Maybe that will show I’m way off base?
who cares what fans think?
(other than people posting to fansites)
i think you may be pretty spot on as far as your (unbiasedish) public perception based rankings go, but that ain’t got a thing to do with how things shake out on the court.
you have batum at the bottom of just about every one of these match up lists but IMO i’d take him over artest, jefferson, richardson, et al… (he’s all killer no filler efficient, spreads the floor on offense, shrinks it on defense, and is only getting better) higher profile doesn’t mean better player, especially when you factor in PDX being a smaller media market.
bustabucketwho'dadunkitblazerdutysupersunkitslamingeezitkillerthreesitgoupgetitgotit good.
Getting something to replace Rudy
I think that’s all we need for tinkering. Basically Roy’s backup, preferably a shooter, and definitely someone who is comfortable with a bench role.
Assuming Oden is back, even if we don’t get Joel back, we’re covered at the bigs with Camby, LMA and Pendy. LMA, Camby and Pendy have the 4, Batum and Martell at the 3, and Miller, Bayless and either Mills, Koponnen, or someone else at the point, the biggest holes are at the 2 spot and outside shooting.
It’s too bad Rudy turned out to be such a sensitive crybaby. He’s proven to be useless to the Blazers and destroyed his trade value. At least Martell was able to figure out how to be productive when things weren’t going his way. Rudy should catch a clue.
Well said
For the first time in recent years we have a solid grasp on our starting 5 (assuming Camby for now while Oden gets back into the fold). I also feel like Bayless, Webster, and Oden have locked in the key reserve spots so the only question mark really is Rudy.
No matter how that question is resolved, I am looking for the continued growth and maturity out of Bayless and Batum. I am mostly looking for that gel period. I have heard Porter and Drexler indicate separately that once their nucleus was established, some tweaks took place but they also grew together. They needed a season or two to go from good to great just playing together without mixing up locker room chemistry or major changes to the rotation to allow the whole to be larger than the sum of the parts.
Concentration of resources
This probably goes along with the idea of “Focus” but I think the team needs to move from the mode of “acquiring” talent and resources to “consolidating” talent and resources. For a long time the Blazers have been able to add talent by just adding players. Now they have to be more creative.
I often hear people talk about the Blazers’ depth and the number of talented players they have, but the playoffs usually come down to a tighter rotation. We need to consolidate depth of talent into higher concentrations of quality talent. The Camby trade was a perfect example of this – Take two guys who are regular contributors and turn them into one guy who is a better contributor than either of the two players that are left.
This serves two purposes – it helps you get your talent concentrated into a tighter rotation and put more talent on the floor at one time, and it opens up roster spots to add more talent in the draft, FA exceptions, etc. Right now it’s hard to add anyone without moving out someone who is just about as good or better
The Blazers need to find a team that is in the position they were in a few years ago – or where Sea/OKC was when they sent Allen to Boston – a rebuilding team looking to add volume of good young players – and give them several players with good talent for one very high quality player. I don’t have any specific scenarios in mind and the cap rules obviously hinder this somewhat, but that’s why they pay the FO the big bucks, right?
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. -- Albert Einstein
As a fan, if I could give each of our Blazers one single piece of advice this offseason:
Andre Miller: Conditioning
After the negative media attention he received this prior camp for being out of shape, I would at least come in ready to practice this time. He doesn’t need to be in game shape, but if you’re sucking wind on the sideline while your teammates are running the floor, that’s a problem. Teams only get so many opportunities to practice at game speed together. We’re not the youngest team anymore, but our younger players need Andre to set a better example.
Brandon Roy: Training
The need to take care of his knees this offseason should be a given. I’m more concerned that he doesn’t even touch a basketball until camp opens. That’s absolutely ridiculous for his age and lack of accomplishment compared to other stars. It’s actually inexcusable if you ask me. He doesn’t deserve a summer free of basketball. He’s been free since what, April for the last several years? In my opinion, you get the right to rest when you actually win something important in the postseason. You know, like one single series? I know there are a lot of Kobe haters here, but he works about 10x harder than Brandon does and he’s nearly ten years his senior. When I know Kobe is making 700-1000 shots a day during the summer while Brandon is doing jack squat, it makes me a little angry that he’s our “franchise player” on team with championship aspirations. Whenever they ask Brandon what he did last summer before a camp opens, he always has that entitled “star player” look on his face. You aren’t entitled to a title Brandon. If you wanna win one, it’s time to step it up man. Like, last year it was time.
Kobe’s offseason workout routine: http://www.mensfitness.com/exclusives/206
Nicolas Batum: Shooting
Keep working on your 3-ball this summer in France. You have a real shot at being the #3 or possibly even the #2 guy on this team if you work hard enough at that. We know you can get to the rim in the right situations. Now we just need to rely on your deep shooting to spread the floor for guys like Brandon and Andre.
LaMarcus Aldridge: Toughness
Take it to the rim before the double comes. Watch a whole bunch of Amare Stoudamire game tape. Fast forward when he’s on defense. Just watch him play pick’n’roll with Nash and how he uses his body for post position immediately when he catches the ball. I’m not sure there’s a better point guard / forward tandum in the league. Train like you’re a #2 guy, not a role-player.
Marcus Camby: None
Hot tub time machine? That’s about all I can think of right now. Maybe he can work on his jump shot a bit but he’s not really ripe anymore. If he were a banana it’s about time to bake some bread about now. Come into camp healthy and ready to mentor Greg.
-
Jerryd Bayless: Vision
No position in the NBA requires greater floor vision and leadership than point guard does. None. As such Jerryd’s goal this offseason should training his mind more than his shot. I already have confidence in his shot. We know he can score. If I were him, I might take a couple of months off until the playoffs and draft are over. But come July I would be back in Portland working with assistants until camp opens. If he’s not traded this offseason, next year is make or break for him in my mind. Hope he realizes that.
Rudy Fernandez: Maturity
Honestly the only thing holding Rudy back from greatness is maturity. He may have been Michael Jordan in Spain (..you know, not the NBA) but he’s Rudy Fernandez, bench warmer on the Trail Blazers. At some point he’s going to have to make a very important decision. Does he: A. Accept his role on the team and strive to be the league’s best 6th man on a playoff squad? Or does he B. Ask for a trade and start for some crappy non-playoff team / go back to Europe? Personally I’d choose option A but I’m biased. My only request? Don’t come into camp wavering between A or B. We already saw from you last season that it doesn’t work. Play well and you play. Pretty simple.
Martell Webster: Handles
We know you can shoot the deep ball. Your man-man defense really improved last season. But you still can’t drive to the rim without getting stripped half the time or bobbling the ball. As I wrote about Jerryd above, get back in the gym early and force yourself to handle the ball more. Work on getting to the rim with either hand. Watch a bunch of Hedo Turkoglu tape from 2009 when he was with the Magic and they made that Finals run. He was amazing that season and I think Martell should strive to reach that level.
Greg Oden: Body
Nothing matters more for Greg than getting his body right this summer. Honestly, I don’t see the Blazers giving him more than next season to turn things around. If he suffers another season-ending injury again, I just don’t see him in red & black anymore. I’m not sure why he waited this long to see a number of specialists. Maybe the doctors tell him to weigh even less next season. Maybe he should be down to 250 instead of 260-265. Maybe he needs to wear two knee braces next year. Whatever it is, figure it out. His body is clearly telling him something. I want him to be an important part of our team but right now that’s a longshot in my mind. He has a lot to recover from both mentally and physically. But as my dad used to tell me, “there’s no time like the present” to start. He should be back in Portland soon.
Other Guy(s):
I don’t feel like writing about Juwan Howard (who may not even be here next season), Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, Patty Mills or Travis Diener. You have to be part of our rotation in the playoffs for me to write things about you. Yes, I know Juwan was part of our rotation. I just don’t care to write about a guy who is pretty much retired right now. Maybe he has one more season in the tank? He’s on fumes though. With regard to the young bucks. Find a way to carve yourself a nitch on this team. Dante has the best shot at making an impact next season. But he really didn’t do a whole lot more than play good defense and take mid-range elbow jumpers when he was open. Hard to tell where the holes in his game are. Should know more next offseason. Jeff is just a little rough around the edges. He seems to have a lower basketball IQ than say Dante does. Some of that is just a lack of experience in NCAA tournament games. Again, need to see more next season to know for sure what’s missing.
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
Bayless…If I were him, I might take a couple of months off until the playoffs and draft are over. But come July I would be back in Portland working with assistants until camp opens
A couple of weeks ago Canales said that Jerryd called him and they were going to start working out again in June..which could be right now. I don’t know how any PG can improve his court vision without 9 other players being on the floor, but I heard Bayless gets some good run down in PHX (and he’s worked out with Billups in the past, during the offseason)
Oden has been back in Portland for at least a month, working out at the PF with Przy. If Greg gets hurt again, well 23 years old is way too early to write off any player, especially one with his size and talent. A lot of Blazer fans “wrote off” Bowie back in the day, but Sam played in the NBA until he was 33. Zarunas Ilgaukus is another example of a big man who needed a lot of surgery early on but then has stayed relatively healthy. Same thing with Sabas. Portlanders thought that Walton was an overpaid bust until the winter of ’76-77. Patience and perspective are required
I’ll say this about Cunningham. Shoot as many jumpers from both corners as it takes to extend your range until you can knock down that shot 75% of the time when you’re unguarded.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The biggest questions are health
If Oden, B-Roy, and Batum are 100%, this team will reach it’s potential, and second round of the playoffs.
Secondly , LMA’s maturation this summer is key. Will he come back ready to put more pressure on the other team by mixing in more drives to the basket? Will he come in determined to draw fouls on the other teams’ bigs?
The third biggest question is: can Nate get his team to generate easier shots for one another? The Blazers worked incredibly hard to get quality looks against The Suns, not generally considered an elite defensive squad.
After that, backup roles being shuffled around via trade are fairly insignificant. It doesn’t seem like a summer where anything will happen outside of the natural development of J-Bay, who comes in as a huge wild card for the 10/11 season.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Jun 4, 2010 9:39 AM PDT reply actions
Nate needs the off season improvement the most
while i agree with halo_on and a number of others on what our squad could be doing to improve individually in the off season, (conditioning first and foremost) i think that we’ve got enough talent as it is, and the onus is on the coaching staff to improve the game plan, and as a result their SKILLS.
that means Nate and co. need to have that plan together NOW, and hopefully it’s one with more facets than a focus on defense, and a “48 minute effort”. the inside outside game with B-Roy as it’s only inside threat that’s been consistently effective (here’s looking at you oden) is not gonna cut it, especially when the outside shots aren’t falling. (here’s looking at you rudy) the fall back plan (or #1 option in late game situations) is the B-Roy (or miller) ISO which leaves me similarly uninspired.
i’d like to see a more varied use of our “spacing”, one that includes a more off the ball movement, (especially towards the rim, and for B-Roy) and facilitates more weak side passes. getting LA the ball on the pick and pop is great for his feathery J, but not so great for attacking the paint. why not have him roll instead of pop and have the pop option settle in behind him? both Nic and Martell have the ability to either pop or drive from there.
Juwan is a solid passer for his size, as is Camby, and yet standing at the free throw line in the triple threat position, they often looked stagnant, as if waiting for the outlet pass back to the point to reset. Not that i’m advocating a big man as our point, but i’d like to see our wings cutting in that scenario rather than waiting for the outlet pass or the J. a stretch 4 with the ball there could also help facilitate the inlet pass to GO, as Juwan demonstrated early last season.
the two things i’m really driving at with these scenarios are keeping the defense honest, and attacking inside first. with the glut of length we have from 3-5 we ought to be able to own the boards if the shots are coming off soft, not to mention get to the free throw line alot more if we work inside out. And by involving more players (and schemes) we can avoid stretches where we’re taken out of the game (or series) by a defensive adjustment (like game 2 of the suns series, or when the rockets clamped down on B-Roy last year)
too many times last season i heard Nate qualify his coaching performances with “there’s just not enough time in the regular season grind to make adjustments,” (even though he nearly adjusted his way to a COY award.) IMO he got badly out coached in both of our first round losses. the point is doing one or two things excellently can get you through the season, but if the championship window is going to open, we’re going to need that and a handful of other things that we can do pretty well. they may not come quickly or easily, so obviously the time to adjust, learn is now.
in short, i think the greatest improvement that should be made this off season is in the playbook, and hopefully the coaching staff is giving our boys things to work on toward that end.
bustabucketwho'dadunkitblazerdutysupersunkitslamingeezitkillerthreesitgoupgetitgotit good.
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