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Portland's salary situation going into the free agent period

OK, there's been some talk about this topic in various posts so I thought I'd try to consolidate all the bits of information.  The new salary cap year starts on Thursday, July 1st.  Understanding where the Blazers are at salary-wise will, I hope, keep the discussion about possible moves at the highest possible level of excellence.  I want to paint this picture in two ways, utilizing the two major issues having to do with cap-onomics.  Here we go:

 

Issue #1 - Will the team be above or below the salary cap?

Assuming that Joel Przybilla does not utilize his Early Termination Option, Portland will have 11 guaranteed contracts on the books once the new salary year begins on Thursday:  Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby, Joel Przybilla, Andre Miller, Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph.  These 11 represent approximately $62.25 million in salary (I say approximately as the precise amount of Roy's salary won't be known until July 7th when the league releases the new figures for the year - until then, I think this is a pretty good guess).

Ryan Gomes was waived by the team, although his contract was partially guaranteed for $1 million in 2010-11, so that amount counts against the cap.

Additionally, there will be several cap holds for various players who are not currently under contract.  These cap holds only count from July 1st until the start of the regular season, but they do count, so we have to take them into consideration.

To start with, Portland has two unrestricted free agents (Juwan Howard and Travis Diener) that will each count against the cap in the amount of $854,389 until they are re-signed by the team, renounced by the team, or signed by another team.  If they are re-signed by the Blazers, their new salary amount is the amount that counts against the cap.  If they are either renounced or signed by another team, their hit against the Blazers' cap becomes zero.

Portland also has one restricted free agent in Patty Mills, whose cap hit will be the amount of his $937,195 qualifying offer.  He, too, will count as this amount until he is either re-signed by the team, renounced by the team or signed by another team.

The Blazers also hold the draft rights to five unsigned first round draft picks.  The hit against the cap for each of these players is 100% of their rookie scale amount, which is based off of their draft position.  So

  • Luke Babbitt will count as $1,371,200 against the cap
  • Elliott Williams will count at $1,045,600 against the cap
  • Victor Claver will count as $1,045,600 against the cap
  • Petteri Koponen will count as $850,800 against the cap
  • Joel Freeland will count as $850,800 against the cap

The grand total of all of these salaries and cap holds is approximately $71.06 million.  As I said earlier, the exact details of Roy's contract might shift that number slightly.

Back in April, Commissioner Stern made an announcement that the league anticipated a salary cap figure of $56.1 million, so the Blazers look to be well over the salary cap once the July Moratorium is lifted on July 8th.  So, in terms of trying to sign free agents, the Blazers will initially be limited to using exceptions to sign players - the Mid-Level Exception (which will probably be an amount slightly less than this year's $5.854 million), the Bi-Annual Exception (set at $2.08 million) and the Minimum Player Exception which allows teams to sign players for the minimum amount allowable by the Collective Bargaining Agreement for that player (it differs from player to player, depending on how many years of NBA service they have)

 

Issue #2 - Will the team be above or below the luxury tax threshold?

Another important issue, as the team was below the threshold this year (2009-10) and avoided having to pay any tax.  I think it goes without saying that although Paul Allen might be willing to pay tax next year, he'd prefer not to.  So let's just see where the team stands.

The aforementioned 11 guaranteed contracts for $62.25 million will go into the calculation of whether or not the team is above or below the tax threshold, as will the $1 million figure for Ryan Gomes, bringing the running total to $63.25 million.

No other players are guaranteed to count towards the determination of being above/below the threshold line, which is anticipated to be about $68 million.  The cap holds listed above only count against the cap during the summer months and drop off when the regular season starts if the players are not actually signed to contracts.  So, right now, the team looks to be under the tax threshold and is not in danger of having to pay luxury tax next year.  But the team does need to sign at least two more players to reach the league minimum roster size of 13 (Gomes does not count as a roster player since he was waived). 

So if the team wants to stay below the tax threshold, it needs to have less than $4.75 million in summer signings.

Two signings seem nearly certain - Luke Babbitt and Elliott Williams.  As 1st round draft picks, they each look to sign for a 'standard' 120% of their rookie scale amount.  This translates to contract amounts of $1.65 million for Babbitt and $1.25 million for Williams.  If they are both signed, that would bring the total salary figure to $66.15 million for the team, or approximately $1.85 million below the tax threshold.

That would also bring the roster size to the league minimum of 13.  The team would have the option of signing up to 2 more players, but could only spend $1.85 million in doing so if it wants to avoid the luxury tax.

Which raises certain questions:

  • Will the Blazers re-sign Patty Mills?  For how much?
  • Will the Blazers sign their 2nd round pick, Armon Johnson?  For how much?
  • Will the Blazers look to re-sign either Travis Diener or Juwan Howard?  For how much?
  • Will the Blazers choose to use their MLE or BAE with the knowledge that doing so could cause them to go over the luxury tax threshold?
  • Will the Blazers try to make a trade that puts them further under the tax threshold?  Or willing to make a trade that puts them over the tax threshold?

And other questions that, I am sure, will be raised in discussion here on Blazersedge over the next few weeks and months....

Please let me know if I've forgotten something, if I haven't explained something well, or if you have any questions about all this that either I or one of the many knowledgeable board members can answer.  Thanks ahead of time to all those who assist me in answering questions.....

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This might be a dumb question

Is the luxury tax penalty instituted at the end of the season? Say the blazers use their full MLE and BAE which puts them into the luxury tax now but then trade Joel to a team with cap space for a pick (I realize this won’t happen). This would put them back under the luxury tax amount. Would that clear them from paying the luxury tax? Hopefully that makes sense.

by TP.5 on Jun 29, 2010 10:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Not a dumb question at all

And an important one. It is figured based on salaries at the end of the season, so we could sign someone to the MLE, dump Joel’s salary at the trade deadline, and be under the tax limit.

Still on the Rex bandwagon.

by dan_the_man on Jun 29, 2010 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

hold on a sec

As I understand it, the salary for the tax number accrues during the season, as players get paid by the game rather than by the whole season. So if we keep Joel til February, we’ll have paid him more than half his salary for the year and that number will count against the tax number, although the remaining salary for the year would not.

But with only $1.8 mil in room, basically unless another salary clearing move is made, we’d have to trade joel now for empty space. What’s worse, since he’s hurt, we’d probably have to give that team with cap space an asset (Rudy?) for the right to use their space. So maybe an important question is: would we trade Joel and Rudy for a generic MLE FA this summer? After seeing storyteller’s post on how many FAs might go for MLE this year, I’m tempted, but ouch…

by sanjait on Jun 30, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Your understanding is incorrect.

The tax for a team is based on the team salary on the date of their last regular season game. There’s also some adjustments to the team salary based on various bonuses they may or may not pay.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well that's good.

I found the larry coon on it

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q16

Looks like we could get away with trading Joel at the deadline, IF we can find a team to take him for empty space. It would create a nice TE for us for the following year as well.

by sanjait on Jul 1, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting note about the "standard 120%" above the rookie scale

I hadn’t noticed that was the practice. I take it this doesn’t apply to 2nd rounders? Jeff, Dante and Patty all played for the rookie minimum, and Jeff and Dante are playing for the sophomore minimum this year.

Also, great work, and rec.

Still on the Rex bandwagon.

by dan_the_man on Jun 29, 2010 10:13 PM PDT reply actions  

No, just 1st rounders

There’s no scale for 2nd round picks – they can be signed for anywhere between the minimum and the maximum allowable by the CBA, as long as the team has either the cap room or available exceptions large enough to do so.

1st round picks are assigned a rookie scale number based on their draft position. They can be signed for 80% to 120% of that scale number. I’d say that 19 out of 20 sign for the 120%. But there are exceptions. Sergio only signed for 100% of his rookie scale amount. George Hill signed for 120% of his rookie scale in 2008-09 and 2009-10 but only 80% of his rookie scale in 2010-11.

"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY

by Storyteller on Jun 29, 2010 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

You forgot

to post any innuendo or speculation about the KP firing.

Other than that, a brilliant and very useful post, as usual. Thanks again.

Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!

by jscot on Jun 29, 2010 11:59 PM PDT reply actions  

READ BETWEEN THE LINES!

"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy

by Honka Playboy on Jun 30, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Awesome.

Jeez, I had no idea we were so close to lux tax territory even without the MLE. That makes it seem like the MLE might not even be used.

Also the waiving of Gomes makes a lot more sense now.

Does anybody know the exact conditions under which Joel’s contract becomes insured? Since that’s some pretty serious savings…

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Jun 30, 2010 1:39 AM PDT reply actions  

That makes it seem like the MLE might not even be used.

My revised theory is that Paul has been given a payroll amount that he cannot exceed by the Vulcans (70 mil? 75 mil? pick a number) This would include luxury tax payments to the NBA and is based on projected team revenue. If the team had won a playoff series and sold out a few more home playoff games (and sold much more logo merchandize as Blazermania was rekindled) then the amount that Paul could spend would have been increased accordingly. So, you can see why Paul would be disappointed that the team has failed to advance in the post season, because that has hypothetically put a ceiling on his Vulcan-imposed spending limit

Buy into my theory, or don’t. We’ll find out how high the payroll can actually rise during the next 30-60 days. I’m hoping they can use the MLE and BAE and improve the roster with veteran role players, but if they don’t, then we’ll know that Paul’s sister is holding the purse strings up at Blazer’s HQ

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wow! What a reversal of your "theory".

I’ve been telling you for months that Paul will use the MLE even if it means going over the luxury tax threshold, and you’ve argued the Vulcans wouldn’t let him. Just 5 days ago you stated that Paul would not pay the luxury tax and that your claim had “substance” because you had information from a friend who went to a party with Phil Knight and Terry Porter. You finished that post with:

It’s no joke, get used to Paul not paying the LT, Blazer fans

Now you’ve changed your theory to say the Vulcans have set a limit that will let him pay the luxury tax. The Vulcans are Paul’s employees. They are paid to advise him, and run his business based on what Paul tells them to do. Paul sets limits and goals for them. He approves what they do, not the other way around. The limit to what Paul will pay is what Paul decides to pay.

70 mil? 75 mil? pick a number … Buy into my theory, or don’t. We’ll find out how high the payroll can actually rise during the next 30-60 days.

So now you’ve adjusted your theory to fit anything he does. Do you plan to wait until we see what he actually spends and then claim that was a limit set by the Vulcans rather than Paul?

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just 5 days ago you stated that Paul would not pay the luxury tax and that your claim had "substance" because you had information from a friend who went to a party with Phil Knight and Terry Porter.

Well, actually I said that Paul’s sister and the Vulcans are very concerned with Paul’s behavior (drinking, etc) and will try to make sure he doesn’t go off the deep end and overspend, again. This could affect the payroll in a variety of ways, with one of them being no luxury tax spending

I’ve also maintained all along that I’d prefer that Paul be able to spend as much as necessary, and I’ve advocated acquiring FA veterans using the MLE and the BAE. The available amount under the luxury tax threshold is a moving target, as storyteller has outlined. I’m simply moving along with the new data

I also suggested months ago that the Blazers may consider dealing Webster to “scoop out” space under the luxury tax threshold this summer, which they’ve done. I had no inside info re: this, just a hunch when looking at the payroll and the potentially warp-expendable salalries

No crystal ball, here. Never claimed to have one. I have no idea what Paul can or will spend, but I’m hoping it’s a lot. However, I do believe that he has a much-tighter constraint now than he had 10 years ago, and I suspect that roster decisions will continue to relect this, as was seen on draft day with Martell and yesterday with the Gome’s release

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

two4larue, my friend, I love our friendly debates. But you are really spinning this now.
No crystal ball, here. Never claimed to have one. I have no idea what Paul can or will spend….

I don’t know if you have a crystal ball or not. But you have been adamant telling me over and over for months that Paul would not exceed the tax threshold, would not pay the tax.

It’s no joke, get used to Paul not paying the LT, Blazer fans

I’ll let you off the hook and move along. I just thought for once I could get you to admit you were wrong. :)

Peace, fun, and much respect for you.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

You can't pin me down that easily

I’m like a watermellon seed under your thumb

I want it all, to add a veteran role players and to keep Joel. But I also feel the need to explain the ever-changing financial landscape over at Blazer’s HQ. If luxury tax money wasn’t an issue, they would’ve kept Martell. There isn’t one answer to this riddle, and I’ll argue it up one side and down the other, as you know

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

What's even worse about using the MLE...

Is that if it puts us even a little over the tax threshold, we lose out on tax payments from the other teams that are over the cap. Every team below gets money from the teams above, so going from one dollar under to just over the threshold actually costs a team a few million in lost revenue, in addition to the dollar for dollar tax payments on salary.

So yeah, waiving Gomes … not using the MLE … it sucks to suddenly be like every other team that worries about salary. :(

by sanjait on Jun 30, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks Storyteller.

I was confused earlier by the numbers on your website 2010-11 column which showed a total of $68,416,805. I believe that is actually the correct column total with Gomes at $1M (after being waived), although he was listed in that column as $4,285,000.

If I take your fine article and make a few assumptions relative to the questions at the end:

1. Will the Blazers re-sign Patty Mills? No
2. Will the Blazers sign their 2nd round pick, Armon Johnson? For how much? Yes, for the minimum $473,604
3. Will the Blazers look to re-sign either Travis Diener or Juwan Howard? No

Then assuming Babbitt and Williams sign at 120%, and using Roy’s assumed max salary:

We would have 14 players (includes the 3 rookies) at a total of $66.6M (includes $1M for Gomes) after the Euro holds come off. So if the luxury tax threshold comes out at $68M we’d be about $1.4 under it.

Will the Blazers choose to use their MLE or BAE with the knowledge that doing so could cause them to go over the luxury tax threshold?

Yes

Obviously the above numbers could change with additional trades, but I believe we will also use the MLE to pick up a veteran (about $5.6 max) so that could easily put us about $4M over the tax threshold before any trades.

An MLE player also brings us to 15 players (using my assumptions of keeping the 3 rookies but not Mills). So we couldn’t use the BAE or sign anyone to a veteran minimum contract without waiving or trading someone else.

Will the Blazers try to make a trade that puts them further under the tax threshold? Or willing to make a trade that puts them over the tax threshold?

Who knows what “big” trade opportunities could come up, especially if a new GM feels a need to “make his mark”. I don’t think we will make a “big” trade just to get under the tax, or avoid one just because it drove us over the tax. It’s all going to depend on whatever players might be available and how much they would improve the team.

Assuming there is no “big” trade - I doubt we dump Rudy for a future draft pick, or find a one-on-one trade for him that we would like. So unless we trade Rudy and Bayless together (about $3.5M total plus perhaps Pendergraph) to get something back with real value, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rudy here at the start of the season.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 1:40 AM PDT reply actions  

Resign Juwan

At least until and unless we make another move, I think it makes sense to keep Howard on the team. He’s the proverbial veteran presence, on the court, on the bench, and in the locker room, and he can help the youngsters – not just the big men – develop.

He’s also still a serviceable (albeit mediocre) backup for our awfully fragile front line: if Oden, Camby, and Przybilla are out at the same time – a very likely possibility – then you’re back to where you were last year, except with a sligntly more experienced Pendergraph. Wouldn’t you love to have someone like Juwan then?

by gidons on Jun 30, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd like to see him sign and not play

If we have to fill a 14th or 15th roster spot for cheap, he’d be a great one to have. He’s a nice insurance policy as a vet who knows the system, but I’d like to see Cunningham and Pendy get all the backup minutes behind LA-Camby-Oden, assuming those three are health (yeah I know, big assumption…).

Although I don’t know if the vet minimum for a guy with his experience would put us over the line, in which case, thanks and bye bye Juwon.

by sanjait on Jun 30, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

there's no rush to sign Juwan

we know the team feels that Pendy and Ferno are ready to contribute, so that will make it less likely for a Howard reprise

And we’re starting to hear rumblings that Joel Przybilla will be ready to go at fall camp, which is freaking awesome! That’s another nail in Juwan’s Blazer-coffin. I’d prefer Clifford Ray as a big man’s coach, but Howard wouldn’t be a bad coaching hire if he’s ready to hang ‘em up. (I suspect he’ll be on another NBA team’s roster this year though, he’s still spry and you can’t beat the paycheck…)

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

link please

Joel will be ready for camp? Wow, that’d be amazing. Especially considering Greg’s timeline keeps getting pushed back.

by kennetha on Jun 30, 2010 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't heard the interview, yet

but someone said Joel’s doctor was interviewed and reported that they are targeting his return in time for fall camp

KP said over a week ago that Przy was riding his bike 15-20 miles

I’m sure if there was a setback that we’d hear about it, pronto…bad news seems to travel faster than encouraging stuff, around these parts

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

thanks

What really surprises me is that Joel has seemingly passed Greg in their rehabs. Even though Joel is older, his injury was more severe and happened more recently than Greg’s. Something not right …

by kennetha on Jun 30, 2010 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

So unless we trade Rudy and Bayless together (about $3.5M total plus perhaps Pendergraph) to get something back with real value, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rudy here at the start of the season.

You’re not going to find a lot of players at 3.5mil who are much more exciting than those in Rudy’s 1.5 range, and I doubt that the Blazers are in as big of a hurry to flip Jerryd as you are

(But you never know, the new GM may hate Rex’ game and look to move him asap)

There are quite a few players on their rookie salaries who would match up with Fernandez, straight up. Most of the time, these youngsters aren’t going to be traded, because they’re cheap and they were drafted recently and the teams they’re on aren’t disatisfied with them, yet. But as we’ve seen with Rudy, this isn’t always the case. Playing time conflicts and new rookies coming onto a roster could make a few of these “affordable” young players more available than they’ve been in the past. And it only takes one trade partner who thinks Rudy can rekindle his past glory and has an “excess piece” on his roster that Portland likes to make a summertime deal.

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not in a hurry to flip Bayless.

Why do you say that? I’ve told you before that I could live with Bayless for another year. I believe the priority should be to get a 6th man at the 2/3 position. My second priority is a backup PG.

It would be nice to find a deal to trade Rudy for a good up and coming player on a rookie salary that also didn’t fit his team well. We could throw in Pendergraph if we needed to balance salaries a little. But I doubt that happens for the reasons you said.

I also agree we aren’t likely to find a good trade for Rudy+Bayless. That’s why it seems increasingly possible (especially with Martell gone as a trading chip), but I wouldn’t say likely yet, that Rudy could return to start next season.

But maybe a new GM will find some “big” deal that gets us an elite starting PG and all-star 6th man, and then talk Miller into coming off the bench. And maybe pigs will fly. (I wonder which is more unlikely, finding that “big” deal or getting Miller to come off the bench?)

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

or they could trade Andre + Rudy for a younger PG

but I doubt that’s coming anytime soon

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

BFS1970 -

The confusion you mention is due to the fact that I only include guaranteed amounts in my ‘subtotal’ at the bottom of that column. In the Notes section of my site, Note #4 reads “The sums do not include non-guaranteed contract amounts or qualifying offers.”

"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2010 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the research and math

Good job tracking all this stuff down. I don’t see the need to sign a second or third string point or shooting guard with the MLE if they will cost us $9 million because of the luxury tax. They would also slow down development of young players. If we packaged players for Hinrich that might make sense, but anyone else like resigning blake would be redundant and stifling.

by Amused13 on Jun 30, 2010 2:47 AM PDT reply actions  

I don’t see the need to sign a second or third string point or shooting guard with the MLE if they will cost us $9 million because of the luxury tax

The backup SF is young and thin. A veteran with playoff experience is needed (M. Miller, MLE)

Bayless is a developing PG. Miller is ol’ reliable but when his consecutive games streak ends it might end in a big messy way. A #3 veteran PG is a good precaution (K. Dooling, BAE)

Hopefully, clearing Webster’s salary off the payroll means moves like these are still doable

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the numbers Storyteller

I think we’ll sign all of this year’s draft picks, but not pick up Mills, Diener or Howard.

I don’t think we’ll use the mid level. We don’t have the need of a back up at any position and there’s really no one to target anyway…maybe Mike Miller? We’ve got plenty of PGs. We have Roy and Rudy at SG. We have Batum and Babbitt at SF. We have Aldridge, Dante and even Pendy at the PF. We have the 3 headed defensive monster at center.

I don’t think there is a compelling reason to go into the tax this year. In fact, I think future luxury tax burdens Paul Allen will have to pay will make him want to avoid it this season.

"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
-Dave
As for the Blazers...They are officially the NBA equivalent of a movie serial killer
-basketbawful

by Magnum on Jun 30, 2010 4:14 AM PDT reply actions  

We’ve got plenty of PGs.

“We” have Andre Miller, and that’s it. Bayless is a combo. Elliott Williams is a lefthanded-only slasher and Armon Johnson is just as likely to play in Boise as Portland next year. Patty Mills is a micro-SG. A veteran PG (if only for emergency) is like a spare tire to keep back in the trunk.

We have Roy and Rudy at SG.

Brandon yes, let’s hope he can stay healthy (and no more SF duty for Roy!) Rudy has one foot out the door and the other on a banana peel

We have Batum and Babbitt at SF

Is this 2005 or 2010? These guys are both young and skinny. Nic needs to play 30-35 mpg but Luke has got a lot to learn about defense, so Nate isn’t going to throw a rookie forward to the sharks with his coaching job on the line. Veteran backup SF is a huge priority for this team that needs to get out of the first round in April

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Getting a veteran backup SF is one of the things we agree upon.

Strange to see Quick say the Blazers MLE priority is a PG or SG this morning.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

depends on who the shooting guard is

I don’t want to see Brandon playing SF anymore. He’s already slimmed down this summer to take the stress off his knee joints. In the past he played some 3 and got himself banged up—and for what? At the end of it all Rudy was still unhappy. Ungrateful Spaniard!

Adding a SG who is big enough to defend some SFs would be OK. Cunningham can defend the more-physical 3s, when Batum isn’t in there

and I think that a #3 veteran PG is a good idea. Just not Blake because Nate won’t be able to resist overplaying Steve, again

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

it comes down to the cost-benefit of signing a 3rd string guy who puts us over the luxury tax

Outside of Mike Miller, there isn’t much out there worth going after while going over the tax line. There might be a few minimum level players worth a backup spot, but that’s trivial stuff. In this off season I don’t think we’ll get Miller with just the MLE. Teams are going to outbid us.

If a vet 3rd string PG is a big issue we could just keep Diener around. I don’t think using up a roster spot on another PG is that important. We can always pick up an emergency PG later if, for some strange reason, the NBA ironman goes down with an injury.

I think you’re assigning way too much importance to our 9th-12th players. If Nate’s job is dependent on getting a decent vet SF so we can get out of the first round then he’s already screwed. This team is already screwed if a guy getting 10 mpg is that important. Babbitt will do just fine in that role.

"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
-Dave
As for the Blazers...They are officially the NBA equivalent of a movie serial killer
-basketbawful

by Magnum on Jul 3, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

you notice the Blazers are targeting wings and Farmar?

Matthews, Mason, etc

So it looks like they and I have a similar outlook re: what the roster needs

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 3, 2010 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

well sure, IF we pick up a guy it makes sense that it would be at those spots

we’ve got tons of bigs.

I expect the team to be talking to FAs. I’m just saying there’s no need to bring a guy in for an amount that puts us over the tax line just to be a 3rd string PG or a guy playing 10 minutes at SF.

Sure sign a guy for a few million, stay under the tax line, that’s a basic signing to fill out the roster. There’s no need to break out the full MLE for an 8th or 9th guy.

"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
-Dave
As for the Blazers...They are officially the NBA equivalent of a movie serial killer
-basketbawful

by Magnum on Jul 4, 2010 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

here's where it makes sense

as of today the Blazers have Batum, Babbitt and Cunningham at the depth chart at SF

(Roy has lost weight so let’s leave him out of the equation, he’s a SG and should stay at SG)

In the past 12 months, Batum has been hampered due to a right shoulder injury. Nic’s health is crucial for the team’s success. If he re-injures his arm the Blazers will be left with a rookie and a 2nd year player at the 3. Babbitt can’t defend, Dante can’t dribble.

If the team was in rebuilding mode (2005) I could let this slide, but they’re supposed to be competing for the playoffs and to advance to the WCF. A veteran SF is a necessity for the 2010 roster, not because he would only play 10-15 mpg, but so he would be available in case Batum was hurt again. Not to mention that the veteran wing would be very useful in the post season, especially someone like Raja Bell, as a tough perimeter defender

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 4, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

We could probably get Bell and stay under the tax line if that's what we wanted

Again, if our team is depending on a 34 year old back up wing to advance in the playoffs we’re already screwed. The difference between an old Raja Bell, for example, and the rookie Babbitt is not worth going into the luxury tax. He’s just not that much better.

"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
-Dave
As for the Blazers...They are officially the NBA equivalent of a movie serial killer
-basketbawful

by Magnum on Jul 4, 2010 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

A couple of questions...

If the team were to not find a trading partner that moves Rudy to another team and the team and Rudy mutually agree to let him go play in Spain (I know that that may be unlikely or unpopular)… How might that affect our luxury tax calculation? Obviously if we simply waive him he still counts against us, but if we buy him out for $1 (mutual agreement) that would give us more space to sign a player without exceeding the cap? Is that correct?
2nd question is…. In addition to a dollar for dollar tax on the amount over the luxury tax limit, a team over the cap also doesn’t receive a share of the tax collected. Is that true? What was that amount for last season? This is significant from the standpoint of a team going over the limit a very small amount. While the amount paid in tax could be insignificant, the loss of the team share could make it prohibitive to pay even a small tax. True?

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2010 5:23 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Rudy's contract is the rookie scale contract.

So first thing is that the Blazers have already picked up their option for him next year. Meaning he will count $1,246,680 toward this years salary cap. The team has an option on his contract next year.

So if they decided to let him play in europe next year, his salary of $1,246,680 would still count against the Blazers cap for this season, regardless of any buy out he and the BLazers might agree to. This is the same as when Steve Francis was bought out after the Z-bo trade. His salary was still on the books eventhough he wasn’t on the team.

However if they did this, the Blazers could not pick up his option for next season, thus making him a FA, available to sign with whoever, and saving the Blazers his salary for next year, $2,180,443.

Since the cap hit is so small, and his potential is still very high, I doubt the Blazers would agree to it.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the info

I knew a deal like Francis’ would still count against the cap since we bought him out for virtually the full amount remaining on his deal. I thought it might be different if we bought out a deal for much less than the value of the contract.

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2010 9:07 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

If the Blazers were to buy out Rudy's contract, only the buy-out amount is included against the salary cap.

So if they really wanted to let him return to Europe they could agree to a $1 buyout and that is all that would be counted against the cap.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ:

62. How do buy-outs affect a team’s salary cap?

The agreed-upon buy-out amount (see question number 61) is included in the team salary instead of the salary called for in the contract. …

I had always speculated that Rudy had an agreement with Paul Allen that he could return to Europe (using such a negligible buy-out price) after 2 years if he wanted out of the NBA. I thought that made sense because Rudy gave up millions in salary he would have made in Europe to come over on the rookie scale. I can’t imagine why he would lock himself into the 4 year rookie scale without insisting on such a way out. But apparently I was wrong. Otherwise, he’d be gone now.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can’t imagine why he would lock himself into the 4 year rookie scale without insisting on such a way out

Me, either. He left a lot of CSKA money on the table to follow his NBA dream, and his contract is still a bargain. That makes me think there will be someone who will take him off Portland’s hands this summer, the only real issue is adequate compensation (perhaps future draft picks, and another youngster who Portland really wanted to draft in the last few years but who is now locked in a PT logjam on another team’s roster, etc)

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

I hope you're right.

But do you think Nate (the Blazers) would let him return to start the season if nothing else develops? I’m not predicting that will happen, but it became somewhat more probable after draft night. You’ve expressed a lot of concern about his locker room grumbling. I think he would be on a short lease if they do.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have no idea

he hasn’t completely burned the bridge, but everybody knows that his heart isn’t into it anymore re: Portland. That’s like heading into a battle zone with civilians, you’re better off leaving them back at camp

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

resigning mills or diener or signing armon johnson

I do believe we may have a battle for 3rd string point guard. Nate won’t be comfortable going in with just Miller and Bayless on the roster, in case of injury.

My question is:
    do we have until after summer league to make this decision?

I’m not sure about the timing of things like this.

by boppitywop on Jun 30, 2010 5:35 AM PDT reply actions  

since those guys are unlikely to get offers from other places (and we have rights to Johnson in any case) we have until the season starts to decide at least, I think.

by atomiccafe on Jun 30, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

do we have until after summer league to make this decision?

Sure, the BAE will be available all off season. It may even be better to wait and see which FAs slip through the cracks because you might find a bargain who will accept the 2.08 × 2 deal in August who would turn his noise up at it, in early July

Probably not Steve Blake, but perhaps someone like Keyon Dooling

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

well

One thing should be a no brainer- let Diener go. Also let Juwan go but offer him a job with the organization.

by lsjogren on Jun 30, 2010 7:54 AM PDT reply actions  

Here's what I think we should do:

- Let Howard and Diener go.
- Sign Mills and Johnson.
- Make a deal with the Warriors to sign and trade Morrow for Fernandez plus whatever is necessary (money, future draft picks) to complete the deal.

"Nicolas! You're the strongest boy in the world!"

by ericking on Jun 30, 2010 8:08 AM PDT reply actions  

I'd love to see Morrow

on the Blazers. I’m not a big fan of depending on rookies to play big back up minutes on a team that wants to reach the WFC or more. So while I’m excited for the new rookies, I don’t want to see Babbit or Williams in a 10-15 min role this year. A trade for Morrow, and maybe a signing of Mike Miller would be awsome.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would be awesome.

If we were able to sign both Morrow and Mike Miller, would you rather have Mills or Johnson with that last spot? I’m leaning toward Mills, but it should make the summer league more interesting. Do you know when the team will have to make this decision? Can they wait til after the summer league is over?

"Nicolas! You're the strongest boy in the world!"

by ericking on Jun 30, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure when the decision would have to be made

I’m not big on Johnson or Mills. I would rather have a league mim vet 3rd pg than either of them, just incase Miller does go down.

I really like the thought of a second unit of Bayless, Morrow, Miller, Cunningham and Camby. I wouldn’t play them as a 5 man unit, but subbing them in while keeping either Miller, Roy, LMA or Oden on the floor to maintain offensive execution. Mike Miller is a guy that can help Bayless set up the offense much like Roy does, he is a good passer, and a great rebounder, combine him with Camby and the Blazers second unit should not get out rebounded often.

I really like the idea of Mike Miller on this team, I believe he can provide a calming presence for the 2nd unit that was missing last season. Bayless, Rudy, Cunningham, and Travis while he was here, are all high energy players who play almost out of control, Miller is the ying to their yang.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mike Miller would be nice

If only for the comedy in Mike Rice trying to keep both Millers straight.

by ictoagsn on Jun 30, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

no PT for both Mike Miller and Morrow

I realize one of them could be the backup 2 and the other the backup 3 but there are only so many minutes to go around, behind Brandon and Batum, and Bayless is going to get a lot of the 2 guard PT

Morrow is a great shooter, but does he have much else to his game? Handles? Defense? BBIQ? Playoff experience? I’d prefer a more-veteran option like MIller or Korver because the Blazers already have enough kids, and I suspect that Morrow isn’t going to want to play 15-20 mpg behind Roy and Nic after playing 30 minutes a game for Nellie. He’s looking for a starting gig and dreams of NBA stardom, not a reserve role on a championship-caliber roster

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

You may be right.

I want Batum playing 30+ mins a night this season, so bringing in both Morrow and Miller might be too much. Of the two i want Miller more.

by usmcr3049 on Jul 1, 2010 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

So do I

but it looks like MM’s going to get more than the MLE

Raja Bell has been my more-realistic target for a few months, now. He could teach Batum all of his clutch and grab tricks, as well as knock down open 3s

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 3, 2010 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

People have also been saying Babbitt's a defensive liability, too.

He’s probably more athletic than people give him credit for, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Also, I agree that we might not need Mike Miller if we have Babbitt, but if we’re trying to contend this year, I’d probably prefer an experienced player over a rookie. You never know, though. Some rookies come in and can have an immediate impact.

"Nicolas! You're the strongest boy in the world!"

by ericking on Jun 30, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

you sum it up pretty good.

My feeling is that I want the team to have that experince on the 2nd unit, and I can’t help but think Nate wants that too. Babbit is all potential at this point, he hasn’t proven to be even a good NBA player. He has a 50/50 shot at being good or being Adam Morrison. I think he will be good, as the Blazers scouts have had a very good hitting percentages on their 1st round draft picks. But Miller is a proven NBA scorer, facilitator, and rebounder, Nate would know exactly what he was going to get from him every night, and that is like gold to an NBA coach.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

How likely is it they will sign Mike Miller?

He was a top ten pick in the draft 10 years ago and is 30 years old. His last contract was for $9.7M. He’ll be looking for at least a 4 year deal (I’m guessing)as this will be his last big contract. Blazers just traded away Webster’s $5M dollar contract at the same position and drafted a potential shooter at that position who will get just over $1M. How much is it reasonable to pay Miller to be your back up SF? If they got Miller, would Batum become the back-up?

by kacee on Jun 30, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't believe Mike Miller will get anything close to his last contract

in this summer’s market. I tend to agree with Storyteller that most teams will not use their MLE, or at least not use all of it. Players like Miller are the poster child of yesterday’s NBA, they were given much too large of a contract by GM’s who should have known better.

My guess is he could be had for the full MLE, or less depending on the competition for his services. If I were the Blazers I would offer him a MLE level contract tonight at Midnight, for 3-4 years, with a team option for the last year. He has that much left in him, and it would show him that the Blazers are really interested in bringing him to Portland. That can mean alot to some players, so it should not be over looked. Also it has another benefit, as most of the NBA will be waiting to see what happens with the big stars, going after him early would make him make a choice, Sign the good guarenteed deal now? Or wait it out for possibly a better deal, with the chance that the better deal just won’t be there. I’m thinking that he’ll take the for sure deal.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

You may be right about making a quick offer to someone with the MLE,

but it’s a hard call. I think it depends on how seriously they intend to pursue a substantial trade. If they have a trade they think they could realistically get, they may need to use the MLE later to backfill a spot that wouldn’t be necessary without the trade. But if a trade is a remote possibility, it could be better to strike faster for an available player on the MLE.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jun 30, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I were the Blazers I would offer him a MLE level contract tonight at Midnight, for 3-4 years, with a team option for the last year

Agreed. MM’s not a west coast guy, so he may sit on that offer for awhile. If an east coast team matches it and he leans that way, then the Blazers have to jump on Korver or Raja Bell, although the offers to those 2 wouldn’t necessarily have to be so spendy

I’d also offer Keyon Dooling the BAE and hope he doesn’t get a better offer

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Miller asking for $5.8M for 5 years from Clippers, more than the MLE

Knicks supposed to be interested as well. I don’t see Blazers outbidding those two.

by kacee on Jul 4, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't see any way that Mike Miller starts over Batum

Batum fits with the starting 5, he’s the glue guy and part of the future. You want him to continue to grow with Roy, Aldridge, and Oden…Mike Miller would come off the bench as a 6th man type and hopefully help provide consistent scoring punch when your first string offense is out. He also provides some nice size and rebounding from the 3, and while we all know about his shooting, I think Ben makes a really good point that his already developed NBA level playmaking ability could alleviate some of the pressure that we always see on Bayless to force the issue.

by sammymohawk on Jun 30, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah, no way mike miller starts over batum

soon batum’s going to be starting in the all star game. he’ll set a record for continuous starts at the SF position :)

"Nicolas! You're the strongest boy in the world!"

by ericking on Jun 30, 2010 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

correct

one of the reasons why Miller is a good FA target is that he doesn’t need to start to be effective. That’s been his role and he’ll settle right back into it if he agrees to sign with Portland

it might seem like a lot to pay…but these kind of players are not easy to develop (Martell?) and they don’t usually get traded off of successful teams—because they’re so valuable

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

the point of me suggesting even signing Miller is not to start him, but for him to help calm down the second unit players. Bayless, Rudy, Cunningham, +the rookies, all play on that edge of being out of control. Miller is more like Roy, he can start the offense, giving Bayless and outlet, bringing that calmness to the second unit is key this offseason.

by usmcr3049 on Jul 1, 2010 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not just older but a defensive liability too. I can’t see Nate wishing for this.

Nate wants shooters, and he probably wants a wing who can help Jerryd run the offense, when Andre or Brandon aren’t in the game. Miller is a fit in those areas, and Mike probably can play a little team defense better than a more-athletic rookie like Babbitt

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the biggest bonus regarding Mike Miller is his offensive versatility and ability to ...

mask his slothful man-to-man perimter defense with solid team defense. Yet, with that said, though, I’m not sure the Portland Trail Blazers will target someone like Miller due to the draft selection of Luke Babbitt, which disappoints me.

by AK1984 on Jun 30, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually he is very much like Babbit

except for the part where he is an NBA Vet who knows the ropes, and tricks of the trade. He has learned through playing extended minutes in the league how to be a better defender, even if he is not great. Miller can also create offense for others, something Babbit has yet to prove. And speaking of proof, Miller is a proven NBA contributer, Babbit is all potential at this point, and I hope the Blazers are not going to place the success of next season on 3 rookies playing extended minutes. Good teams may have 1 rookie play, most have none.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good teams may have 1 rookie play, most have none.

This cannot be emphasized enough. And especially not a team whose head coach knows that his job performance will be re-evaluated every 5 games

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why do the Warriors do this?

They move Morrow, a better 3-pt shooter, for a guy whose skill set starts and ends with 3-pt shooting. If they want Morrow, they are not going to assist another team to steal him. If they don’t want Morrow, why would they want Rudy? Cap space? Not likely. Draft picks? I can’t see them getting excited over a late 1st. We’d have to add more salary to the deal. Pendy & Dante don’t make enough $. I like Morrow but if we get him it would be as a RFA, not a S&T.

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2010 9:32 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't see that getting the W's excited but anything is possible

How about we sign Morrow to a offer sheet. If the W’s don’t match the offer we move Rudy to Chicago for one of their 2 1st round picks in 2011.

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2010 10:17 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't know what GS will do

but if I was the Blazers I would at least call them up and start up a dialog about Morrow, and see what it might take to get him.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well something I didn't realize is that Morrow is a RFA

According to Yahoo,

G-State restricted free agent Anthony Morrow has slew of interest, including Spurs, Celtics, Lakers, Blazers, Clips and Jazz, sources say

So at least the Blazers are interested.

by usmcr3049 on Jul 1, 2010 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

If we dont sign Armon Johnson and let him go play in Europe...

Do we still retain his rights? I doubt we would spend $1M+ to move up and draft him and then not sign him, but it probably doesn’t make sense to have both Mills and Johnson (I guess you could sign both and stash 1 in the D-league). Obviously we lose the rights to Mills if we don’t keep him on the roster.
Last year got me confused on this issue. After Mills was drafted all the talk was about him needing a VISA because he would play elsewhere. Then he makes the team while injured, partly because PA was pushing that option, but also, if I understood correctly, because we were going to lose his rights if we didn’t sign him. Can someone explain the rules on these 2nd round picks.

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2010 9:21 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

If we dont sign Armon Johnson and let him go play in Europe… Do we still retain his rights?

Don’t think so. He has to be signed first, then reassigned. I suspect the Hammer will play closer to home (Boise~Reno) and not have to get a passport, this fall

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

The answer is yes regarding Johnson with a condition

If he signs with another team overseas before September 6th, the Blazers keep his rights.

If he hasn’t signed with another team by then, the Blazers must offer him a one year, minimum salary contract. If he turns down this offer to play overseas, the Blazers still keep his rights. The key is that they have to make the offer to keep his rights.

BTW, this is how Patty Mills became a Blazer last summer. The team waited to see if he would sign with an overseas team. He didn’t, so the Blazers had to offer him a one year contract to keep his rights. He accepted the contract.

And, if Mills turns down the qualifying offer and signs with a team overseas, Portland still keeps his rights. The key, again, is that they offered that one year contract so as not to lose his rights. Whether he accepts the offer or not, Portland keeps his rights.

"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2010 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great Summary

Thanks Storyteller – very clear and understandable. Appreciate the work.

This just confirms for me that the only real asset the Blazers have this summer is their expiring contracts, where they can trade salary for salary and stay under the luxury cap. Hopefully making the team better by finding a trading partner who is trying to shed salary in future years and maybe grabbing a younger/less expensive asset like a Rudy or Bayless.

It also confirms for me that you can’t trade a guy like Batum. The talent and upside for the amount of money you are paying him is too valuable.

Thus, I come back to the same place – the one move the Blazers will make during the summer is to trade for a point guard. I don’t see getting a top tier guy without giving up Batum, so I’m guessing it would be a tier two type guy who brings a little different skill set than Miller.

by ATeam on Jun 30, 2010 9:41 AM PDT reply actions  

continuing ....

If our lineup come the fall including a Harris or Hinrich, for the price of Rudy and an expiring contract – preferrably Miller, as I don’t see him taking a lesser role, than I would be very happy.

Starting 5 – Hinrich/Harris, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, Oden/Camby
Second Unit – Bayless, Babbitt, Cunningham, Oden/Camby (w/ an E Williams kicker)

This puts a lot of pressure for Babbitt and Cunningham to provide some productive backup minutes at the 3.

by ATeam on Jun 30, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

the one move the Blazers will make during the summer is to trade for a point guard. I don’t see getting a top tier guy without giving up Batum,

Sacrifice LMA for Tony Parker. No rush, could be a possibility at the Feb deadline

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jun 30, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Questions:

Should PA and the new GM decide to go after a “max” free agent via a sign and trade (my wishful thinking, I know), the new “max” salary would be about $16M, correct? As we are over the cap, would we have to trade salaries totaling $12M (75% of free agent’s new salary)? Does the same calculation apply for any salary of a free agent? Also, how are future draft picks valued in this calculation?

My thanks too for a great article, as well as your earlier one on free agents. I believe your prediction that many mid-level free agents will sign for much less than they expect after the top tier of free agents soak up many teams’ cap space. Which means the Blazers are likely to wait awhile to see who slips through the cracks (just as Miller’s salary demands reportedly came down last summer as Philly abandoned him and he had no suiters).

Finally, a bit off the subject, but might Nate offer Howard a coaching staff position and might Howard accept or is he intent on playing another year?

by kacee on Jun 30, 2010 9:42 AM PDT reply actions  

the "max"

would depend on that players years in the NBA. The max salary goes up the longer the player is in the NBA. The max for B. Roy is much less than the Max for Kobe Bryant for instance.

As for the future draft picks, I’m not sure what you mean by this. Do you mean draft picks from next year’s draft? Or picks the team has made but not signed yet? (ie. Koponen, Claver)

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

I though "max" was calculated as a % of the cap

BRoy’s salary is yet to be determined exactly because it is a % and not an absolute dollar figure; I thought he could get 20% of cap as a “young” player. Established stars could get more, perhaps 25% of cap. Is the formula both years in the league and %? I know there is no significant negotiating room for the top free agents in terms of dollars which is what is making this so interesting this summer since each term can only offer them the same amount.

Draft picks: I was asking about future draft picks. Example: in a sign and trade, Blazers offer Prizbilla + next years first round pick: How much does that add to Prizbilla’s total ($7.4M) to get to with the required 25% of match? How about a second round pick?

by kacee on Jun 30, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK

On draft picks, adding a future pick to a trade counts as $0.

Years in the league are used to determine what percentage is used to create the max deal.
The CBA gives a number, based off a calculated of BRI, or a percentage of the cap, which ever is greater. For example in 09-10 that number was $13,520,500 for players with 6 or less years of experience, and $16,224,600 for players with 7 or more. The percentages also go up after 6 years, 25% of the cap if your under 6 years, and 30% of the cap if your over. So for Brandon it will be 25% of the cap or X which ever is greater, X being the number that is calculated once the BRI is released and the cap is known.

Here is a quote from the NBA salary cap FAQ, which you can find here.

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 48.04% of projected BRI.

As you may know the Salary cap is also determind by a forumla related to BRI, or basketball related income, which is why they have to wait for the cap number to come out each year before the players signed to a max deal that summer can get official numbers. But basically the longer you have been in the NBA the higher your max salary is, as there is another run in the CBA that states,

A free agent’s maximum salary in the first year of a new contract is never less than 105% of his salary in the last year of his previous contract. For example, a ten-year veteran free agent who most recently earned $20 million has a maximum salary of $21 million, even if that is above the league-wide maximum. A free agent does not need to remain with the same team in order to receive 105% of his previous salary, although the team that signs him is subject to the same salary cap restrictions as with any other free agent.

Which is why a player like Kobe, who has been in the league 13+ seasons has a higher max salary than Brandon.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right

For some players, their ‘max’ is the result of the league calculation. For others, it’s 105% of what they made in their previous year.

The answer for most is the larger of those two numbers.

"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2010 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just a question...

What are we really doing with Koponen, and Freeland? They’re never coming over. I like them both, but lets face it – they’re never coming over.

I have serious doubts about Claver too.

Granted, they aren’t costing the team much, but seriously??

by Knobby on Jun 30, 2010 10:46 AM PDT reply actions  

I think one answer is that it gives the Blazers an opportunity to give away a first round pick.

They would then still be able to add a potentially talented player. I read Koponen singed a 4 year deal this year, so he doesn’t look very likely, but maybe there is a cheap buy-out should he want to try the NBA.

by kacee on Jun 30, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

I look at any euro that is drafted

as a lottory. They are an asset that can be used in a trade. But that is all they are for sure, however they have the potential to blow up and be a great player, so if they do then you can bring them over at a cheap cost. It is worth the shot when you do need any additonal young players on your team.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

What the Blazers are really doing

is letting them develop overseas. Rather than waste a roster spot on them and let them get little or no playing time, Portland is allowing them to play with an overseas team, hopefully improve, and then figure out if they can/should bring them over to the NBA when they’re ready to make an impact.

There was a rumor that KP wanted Freeland to come to the Blazers last summer but that Joel felt he still had to get better before he was ready to enter the NBA.

"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2010 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

There was a rumor that KP wanted Freeland to come to the Blazers last summer

All his agent needed to do was to look at who Portland drafted last year to realize that there wasn’t going to be any room on Portland’s roster for Freeland

If LMA is somehow traded, that could open up the door for JoelF, but otherwise he’s probably never going to see the NBA in a Blazer uniform. Might as well include his rights in a deal

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 3, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

European players have to earn a spot just like rookies.

I’m sure they are fully aware of Rudy’s experience at being “blocked” behind a starter, but there are no guaranteed minutes in the NBA. If Freeman is waiting for an opening like that, he’ll never come over. He has to beat players out. Koponen couldn’t do it and now he’s signed for 4 years in Italy. Dragic came over and had a dreadful year; his second year was much better. If they “shine” in a backup role they might be able to prove they can make a career here.

How long is Claver signed for? Does he have a buyout?

by kacee on Jul 4, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

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