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Trade Drawer 6/22/10: Or how I learned to stop worrying and love the Darren Collison

Let me preface the following argument by providing the following assumptions:

1. WARP/salary provides an optimized method to look at a player's performance as a function of their salary, and thus can be acceptably utilized to compare players to determine their per dollar productivity.

2. Darren Collison had a WARP of 4.1 in 2010. CP3 had a WARP of 26 in 2009 and a WARP of 10 in 2010, but we will throw out the 2010 number as an anomaly due to the large number of missed games, and compare his 2009 WARP to Collison's 2010 WARP. Based on these numbers, and the fact that CP3 commands just over 10 times the salary of Collison, Collison has a narrowly larger WARP to salary ratio than CP3.

3. Although Collison's WARP/Salary is higher than Paul's, it is likely that his career WARP/Salary will drop as he gets more money in his later contracts, because it is unlikely that he will be able to reproduce Paul's HOF numbers.

Conclusion: Although it may seem more fiscally responsible to keep DC and trade CP3, it will actually be the wrong decision fiscally in the long run, because of assumption 3 indicating that as collison's salary approaches CP3, his WARP/salary ratio will decrease. This conclusion passes the eye test, as it is fairly clear that CP will fetch a greater revenue to the team in both the short and long run because of his superstardom than any collection of role players or replacement star players that would be obtained in a salary dump.

Having established why it would be foolish for NO to trade CP instead of Darren Collison, let us consider a trade based on darren collison that would help both the the blazers and the hornets.

 

Portland outgoing: Joel Przybilla, Jerryd Bayless

NO outgoing: Darren Collison, James Posey

This trade as it is constructed is very attractive to NO because they receive an expiring contract in Przybilla and a solid combo guard in Bayless, and they are able to shed Posey's contract as well. As it stands, the trade is significantly skewed in favor of NO, and is pretty much a no brainer contract wise. I really believe that Collison can be a star in this league, so I would do this trade as it stands although Posey's contract is particularly difficult to swallow.

One way to sweeten this deal for the blazers is to push the Hornets to swap 1st round picks. This would allow the blazers to jump up into the late lottery and take a flyer on a stud like Xavier Henry or some of the other talented wings. I know the blazers aren't really sold on this draft as being particularly suited to their needs, but needs change all the time, and the blazers still do not have a player that they can count on to score points in a hurry off the bench. If they are ever going to find that player, this will be the draft that they do so because there are so many wings.

To recap, the trade now looks like this:

To Portland: DC, James Posey, #11 pick

To NO: Jerryd Bayless, Joel Przybilla, #22 pick

The biggest problem with this deal is that Joel Przybilla cannot be traded until he decides to pick up his ETO. If he is willing to play ball, the blazers can do a handshake deal on draft night with the hornets, have each team pick the players the other team wants with the #11 and #22 and hold those guys until they can make the full swap once it is allowed by the league.

In my opinion, this is the ideal trade for the blazers to make because it secures them their starting pg of the future in DC, and gives them a guy to groom as a 6th man candidate, which brings me to my fourth and final assumption:

4. The blazers current roster as constructed is capable of winning a championship without adding or changing the core pieces (Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Batum).

If you accept this assumption, then the only thing for the blazers to do is to consolidate their pieces, and the best way to do so while extending the window is to bring in peripheral pieces that have a chance to grow into a part of the core. That is what my proposed trade does.

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