Max value for Rudy
by hawkblogger on Jun 21, 2010 6:43 AM PDT
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With all the great content here on BE, it seems less and less likely that I'm going to post something that hasn't already been discussed, so forgive me if this has. It occurred to me the other day that one team more than any other in the NBA would have reason to value Rudy Fernandez, and it's not the Trail Blazers.
The Minnesota Timberwolves took a lot of heat for acquiring three point guards last season (Ricky Rubio, Ramon Sessions, Johnny Flynn). Rubio ended up staying over in Spain while Flynn had a promising first season and Sessions played some mostly mediocre backup minutes as I'm sure he realized taking more money was not always the best decision.
Rumors are that Rubio will come over this season to play for the Wolves, leaving them with a heavy over-investment of youngs PGs, and some serious pressure to please Rubio and get the most out of him. The SG position, on the other hand, is barren, even with much-improved Corey Brewer. Scoring, especially from the outside is a huge challenge for the Wolves as they look to compliment their strong(ish) low-post presence (Kevin Love, Al Jefferson, etc.).
Rudy would be a clear starter at SG for that team, would give them their best outside shooter, and make the ideal backcourt partner (and recruiter) for Rubio. Acquiring Fernandez could not only make the Wolves a better team, but save face in the front office by making the Rubio pick work out.
The Blazers are looking for the PG of the future, and the Wolves have nobody that is a clear fit. Flynn can certainly play in this league and has major potential. Other items/players that may be of interest to the Blazers include Sessions, Love, Jefferson, Nathan Jawai, Ryan Gomes, and the 4th overall pick.
I'm not saying the Wolves would trade the 4th pick or Al Jefferson for Rudy (it wouldn't work anyway). I'm simply saying there may be needs and desire that work for all sides, and when that's the case, trades find a way of happening.
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This was a FanShot from a few days ago.
This could get you started. http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/6/19/1526228/canishoopus-rudy-22-for-16-23
But I am curious about Rudy’s value. He’s not the equal value of Love. Brewer maybe?
I don't think he's equal to Brewer. Brewer is younger, can defend very well, and is improving. Rudy kind of is what he is.
"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
by dario argento on Jun 21, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Rudy has a small contract
so if you’re dealing him by himself, chances are it’s to move up the board
but if you put Rudy and Webster’s contraacts together, it adds up to 6 mil and you can go get a mid-level salary in return, as well as move up into the 9-13 range on draft night
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yet another suggestion to get a young PG who isn't any better than the one we already have.
Why make what is at best a lateral move?
by upper left corner on Jun 21, 2010 8:04 AM PDT reply actions
Lateral moves sometimes make sense
Let’s say that Flynn is about equal to Bayless in talent, just for the purposes of my point. I don’t think he is, but the argument would fit any young, unproven PG who is about equal to Bayless in terms of overall talent.
2 young PGs + BRoy + Batum > 1 young PG + 1 young SG + BRoy + Batum
In other words, since PG is the most uncertain position long-term, why not get 2 of them and see whichever one develops and meshes better with the team going forward? You improve your chances of finding a PGOTF with 2 rather than 1, and you lose a backup SG who has a smaller chance of having a large impact on the team.
On the flip side, you could hurt chemistry and playing time and each player’s development with an arrangement like this. But the question is then, do your chances of EITHER Flynn or Bayless becoming the PGOTF suffer so much that you would rather just put all your eggs in Bayless’ basket?
My real point is this, and I’m not stating it very well. Lateral moves (from a current value perspective) can make sense if they improve your probability of enhancing future value by addressing a long term need.
In other words, since PG is the most uncertain position long-term, why not get 2 of them and see whichever one develops and meshes better with the team going forward? You improve your chances of finding a PGOTF with 2 rather than 1, and you lose a backup SG who has a smaller chance of having a large impact on the team.
Bleah. This was done with Sergio and Bayless in 2008-2009 and all it does is ensure that neither young PG will receive enough PT to develop correctly. (Then if the #1 PG is hurt, the contending team could suffer without a steady hand at the wheel)
It makes more sense to add a guard who can play the 1-2 and develop him as a backup to Roy, then his PT and Jerryd’s wouldn’t overlap, so much (Dominique Jones and Mikhail Torrance are examples of this in Thursday’s draft, and may not require a trade to acquire)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
can Rex defend 2s? not all of 'em
DJ is 6’4+ with a 6’9 wingspan
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't suppose you'll take the time to read this
but here goes, anyway
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Already read it,
and I love me some length & quickness. Sure would like some shooting to go w/ it. Funny that it’s so difficult. Great shooters are hard to come by, and many of the greatest weren’t particularly athletic.
by damonrayhymer on Jun 21, 2010 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
it is a rare combination
but athletic kids can be taught how to improve their shooting
non-athletic shooters wind up at the Y during lunch
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
where does JJ Redick fall?
Or Reggie Miller?
by damonrayhymer on Jun 22, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
role player
all-star from another era
and I don’t see them anywhere in the first round of this here draft
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That's not even an exaggeration.
Among point guards he was:
39th in PER
55th in Assist%
47th in TS%
59th in TO%
53rd in Rebounding Rate
In other bad news he was 18th in usage, meaning even though he’s terrible Flynn still likes to hog the ball. It’s bad enough when a talented player like Arenas hogs the ball, even worse when an awful player is doing it. I wouldn’t take him as a backup if they were giving him away.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 21, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
those look pretty bad
but he still does bring them about 14 and 4, which certainly isn’t horrible. that’s like what Bayless would be getting if he got 28 MPG
by collectiveshane on Jun 21, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Except Bayless would be able to do it more efficiently
and have a bigger impact. Although they have similar usage rates, and Flynn gets a lot more minutes, they have almost identical wins-added. Besides, the bottom line is that Flynn just sucks.
Not really.
He ONLY brings them 14 and 4, even though he’s used more than the majority of point guards and certainly more than Bayless. If you have the ball in your hands all the time you should be getting more assist, even if just by accident. He takes more shots than Bayless per 36 minutes and scores less, doesn’t draw as many fouls, doesn’t get as many rebounds, and turns the ball over WAAAAAAY more.
He is horrible, even when you don’t take defense into account.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 21, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I constantly rip Jerryd Bayless, but I'm thankful that he isn't Jonny Flynn.
Flynn is a terrible, terrible player. There’s no debate to be had about it, either.
There's something wrong with you guys
You people are way too harsh. What do you expect? You can’t sign the U.S. Olympic Team. I don’t think J. Flynn is “great” and there are a lot of PGs I’d take before him including Bayless (can’t believe I just said that), but he’s a rookie PG. What do want from him? 14 and 4 as a rookie. I think a lot of people would take that and hope that he can improve in the other areas that you guys have mentioned.
You're looking only at raw per-game stats.
Raw stats depend mostly on playing time, pace, and usage. None of these correspond to the stats a player will put up in a different position (e.g. after being traded). Someone who looks good on a bad team will usually look bad on a good team – because that good team has better (more efficient) options, like players with higher rebounding percentages, true shooting percentages, etc.
In essence, quality is not based on how many minutes you get, but on how you use them. Jonny Flynn uses them pretty awfully.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I've heard that argument before
I never thought it applied to the PG position. I always thought that PGs will put up better numbers on better teams. And, I understand that points per game is a raw stat. What I’m saying is the other stats that you guys are focusing on should come in time as long as he works hard on his game, but the ability to score, or the raw stat, as you call it is something that players either have or they don’t. Like I said I think a lot of teams would take a rookie PG that puts up 14 and 4 and hope that the other stats (stats that lead to Ws) come in time.
I don't think that's really true.
Raw scoring is simply about how many chances you get, and how well you do in those chances. A point guard on a crappy team will have a ton of chances – having the ball in his hands more or less constantly. Flynn’s main talents were being on a good NCAA team and giving good interviews, which inflated his draft value. (Seriously; there are studies that show players who have a good run in the NCAAs get drafted proportionally higher. Take a look at the Gordon Hayward hype this year.)
Anyway, it’s not perfect, but I would direct you towards this site:
http://dberri.wordpress.com/
It’s the blog of a sports economist. He’s done plenty of data analysis, and has two main points, very strongly supported by rigorous, professional statistical analysis: scoring is overvalued in the NBA, and NBA players are fairly consistent over time.
There is a metric he uses called Wins Produced. Personally I think it’s good, but has a few flaws (no defense, overvalues defensive rebounding). This is kind of a deluge of stuff now, but if you’re going to use statistics to debate, and you’re at all interesting, you should look into things like this and Kevin Pelton’s WARP.
Also, you make the huge assumption that “other stats…should come in time as long as he works hard on his game”. I don’t think I need examples to make the point that plenty of young NBA players do not reach their potential. Also, if you look at this:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/flynnjo01/splits/2010/
Flynn’s per-month and pre/post-All Star Break splits don’t show any signs of improvement really.
LONG STORY SHORT (and I apologize for my ramblings): You can’t assume a player will get better, and past performance is a good indication of future performance.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Oh, also, regarding assists:
Assists are a screwy, untrustworthy stat, and it’s quite possible that Flynn would get more assists on a better team. But you don’t really need to bring in assists to show what a bad 14 ppg scorer he is.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I suspect Goran Dragic's stats were similar after his rookie year
I’m not saying Flynn should be our target, but there are reasons to consider a young player whose stats underwhelm. I’d like to have some young talent behind Bayless at the PG position. Torrance or Johnson as rookies are options early in the 2nd. Randle later in the 2nd. If Rudy can get you Flynn and the scouts think he has upside that didn’t show in his rookie year and they like him better than the rookie options… I am willing to trust the blazer braintrust.
by 52therim on Jun 21, 2010 12:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Wasn't Dragic hurt his rookie year?
Anyway, I’d personally rather have Ramon Sessions. He was a pretty solid player in Milwaukee.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I posted this in another thread, but
Rudy probably means as much as a lot of big names currently on the market to Minnesota because like the OP pointed out, they desperately want Rubio over. Getting Rudy would make it much more likely for Rubio to come play for them. I don’t know about the salaries and finances and whatnot, but I actually think a Rudy+pick for Kevin Love trade is possible. Remember, this is David Kahn and the Wolves we’re talking about. He’s not the brightest GM.
I'm not so sure I agree with that line of reasoning
Are Rudy and Rubio really great friends or something? From what I understand, it’s a very different relationship than the one between Sergio and Rudy. Yes, they are teammates on the Spanish national team, bit are they all that buddy-buddy that it would make a difference? Why would Rubio much rather play with ONE of his countrymen than a whole team full of them, for better money, with guys he has actually won with in the ACB before?
Besides, I think the two big factors for Rubio are money and winning, not being with another Spaniard.
What rumors have you heard that has Rubio coming over this season?
The last article I read on this states he won’t be coming over until the 2011-12 season.
Which corresponds with his buyout from Barcelona decreasing markedly.
So yeah, it’s not happening this year.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Nate
haven’t you had enough of Spanish guards underachieving over the past 3 years?
If I was Claver I’d stay in Spain
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
even if we were on the cusp of winning?
I doubt that
OJ Mayo is the Blazers' PG of the Future
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 21, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Rubio actually said that he admired Portland
because the Blazers were ahead of the curve re: drafting Euros (Martin, Sabas, etc)
of course that comment is 12 months old, now…
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah that was before Rudy was complaining to him how horrible it to play for Nate when you're used to running.
"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
by dario argento on Jun 21, 2010 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions
If Rubio was Clever he’d stay in Spain.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
by mittsabishy on Jun 21, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
there's no failure
that was gold. i just sent it in to alan thicke for his talk show.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
Personally, I don't like the idea of promoting extra-nationalism within the NBA
I didn’t like it when we had Sergio and Rudy, and even though it’s not our team we’re talking about, I don’t like the idea of making any sort of effort to do it for some other team.
It reminds me of when you go play pickup at the park or Y, and you end up on a team with 3 strangers and 2 buddies, and the two buddies are only looking to pass to their buddy. Sure, Sergio and Rudy had some dynamic plays, but maybe that’s because they were only willing to put out the extra effort to make it happen for their countryman.
I say if it takes another Spaniard to get Rubio to come over or to make Rudy happy, screw both of them, let them go back to Spain.
Sergio and Rudy had some dynamic plays, but maybe that’s because they were only willing to put out the extra effort to make it happen for their countryman.
This^
Rudy broke the 3-pt rookie record in large part because Sergio looked for #5 trailing on every fast break the 2nd unit ran. If you were one of their teammates, would you keep running hard in transition knowing that you weren’t going to see the ball?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Ricky isn't coming until 2012
so that reasoning doesn’t work
by rip_city_swagger on Jun 21, 2010 10:50 AM PDT reply actions
Get the draft picks
Minnesota picks 4th, 16th and 23rd in the first round of this year’s draft, so if they did have interest in Rudy, whether it be the eventual Rubio connection or just the need for a SG, the primary target should be a draft pick. I don’t see any player on the roster that would be attractive to the Blazers.
I can’t imagine that Minnesota would give up the 4th pick for Rudy alone, but I also think Rudy should be worth more than the 16th pick. Be nice to get to the 8-12 range to get your pick of the best shooting wing player – George, Henry or Babbitt.
Or …… go get the 4th pick with the hopes of getting up to pick #2 to take Turner.
Why would we want Turner though? I'd say we have the wing positions locked down.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
16th pick
I think, at this point, if you could get the 16th for Rudy, you probably take it. Maybe then look at another potential outside shooter in Xavier Henry or Luke Babbitt.
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